BlackRock expects economy to flatline for a year before inflation returns in 2024. Get ready for a generational shift to ‘full-employment stagnation’

Will Daniel
Mon, August 14, 2023

In December, BlackRock’s top minds told their clients that a U.S. recession was “foretold.” The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes, although meant to merely tame inflation, would ultimately lead to a wave of job losses and falling GDP, they warned. But now with inflation fading, GDP growth continuing, and the labor market remaining resilient, experts at the world’s largest asset manager have become a bit more optimistic about the future—at least in the near term.

“Our base case is that the economy broadly flatlines for another year as the full impact of high interest rates comes through and consumers exhaust their pandemic savings,” Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, and his deputy head, Alex Brazier, wrote in an Aug. 14 blog post.

A stagnant economy is slightly better than a shrinking one, but Boivin and Brazier noted that if their prediction is correct, the economy will have essentially “flatlined” for two and a half straight years. “That would be the weakest such period in the postwar era outside the Global Financial Crisis,” they explained, referring to the financial meltdown caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.

Boivin and Brazier also argue that a “big structural shift” is underway that could cause problems for the U.S. in the long term. Changing demographics and a rise in early retirements are increasing the share of retirees in the U.S. population. That could lead to labor force shortages, which would slow the economy and have the potential to reignite inflation.

“Our assessment is that we are set for ‘full-employment stagnation,’” the pair wrote Monday, arguing that as labor shortages start to “bind” in 2024, inflation will go on a “roller-coaster ride” and reemerge.

Out of the fire and into the frying pan

Over the past few years, changing consumer spending patterns and pandemic and war-related supply-chain issues helped to create a “mismatch” in the economy that sparked the rise of inflation, according to BlackRock.

Essentially, the economy wasn’t set up to produce what people actually wanted to buy, and this supply-demand imbalance caused prices to surge. But now, although that imbalance is “resolving,” enabling inflation to fade, the labor shortage is threatening to bring consumer price increases back with a vengeance.

Boivin and Brazier found that the U.S. workforce is 4 million workers short of where it would have been if it kept growing at its pre-COVID pace. And due to demographics, the pair believe it will now grow by only 0.5% on average each year, compared to 1.5% before the pandemic.

That could cause “full-employment stagnation,” or a period of weak growth with rising inflation caused by labor shortages. “And that should lead to a shift in how all the income generated in the economy is being distributed: A greater share is ending up in employees’ pockets and a smaller share for companies and their shareholders,” Boivin and Brazier explained.

Rising wages are great for workers, but with increased pay comes less profit and increased costs for business, and that “could hold back business investment” and stoke inflation, according to BlackRock. And on top of that: “A smaller workforce means the rate of growth the economy will be able to sustain without resurgent inflation will be lower: more like 1% than the 2% we were used to,” Boivin and Brazier warned.

Of course, some economists—and even billionaire CEOs—believe that rising wages are not necessarily an issue for the economy. Barry Sternlicht, the founder and CEO of Starwood Capital, told Fortune last September that even if rising wages push inflation higher, that might not be the worst tradeoff.

“I think the whole dialogue is wrong. I don’t think we need 2% inflation,” he said. “I mean, inflation that is driven by wage growth is fabulous. We should want wages to go up—that will help social issues in the United States. It’s the trickle-down that we’ve all been waiting for with low unemployment.”

A word of warning for the Fed

For the Federal Reserve, full-employment stagnation is a serious concern. Keeping inflation sustainably at bay amid labor shortages that cause steadily rising wages, while also ensuring that the economy continues to grow, will be a real challenge.

On top of that, the tactics used to spark economic growth in the past, including cutting interest rates or buying government bonds and mortgage backed securities, may prove to be far more inflationary amid future labor force shortages as lower rates and increased liquidity could lead to unsustainable wage gains.

With that in mind, Boivin and Brazier had a message for central bank officials:

“This is not a business cycle. We are in the midst of a structural shift. Monetary policy cannot rescue the economy from weakness. The Fed will need to make sure the U.S. economy is not growing more quickly than what it can now maintain without inflation surging.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

State Farm is closing its doors to millions of new customers exposed to ‘rapidly growing’ catastrophes — here’s who’s affected

Laurelle Stelle
Mon, August 14, 2023 

The EPA reports that wildfires are getting worse as the planet gets warmer. In response to this and other factors, major insurer State Farm has announced that it will no longer offer homeowner’s insurance to new applicants in fire-prone California.

What’s happening?

According to the EPA, the area burned by wildfires each year has been increasing since the 1980s. The 10 most destructive years on record have happened in the past 20 years, causing more damage thanks to the plentiful dry plants left behind by drought.

While the effects are felt across the U.S., California is famous for its yearly wildfires and the resulting smoke. This year has been particularly hard for the state due to a devastating combination of storms, floods, drought, and fire.

As Axios reports, this became too much risk for State Farm. The company cited “historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation” and “rapidly growing catastrophe exposure” in its decision to close applications across California in May.

Why does it matter?

For homeowners in California, it will now be harder to find affordable coverage for their property. Without it, residents run the risk of losing everything in a fire. Owners that already have coverage are still protected, but State Farm won’t accept any new applications in California, it says.

But the problem extends beyond California. Disasters of all kinds have become more common and more destructive as rising temperatures across the world have caused the weather to become less stable.

If insurers find it too risky to cover areas affected by these disasters, then more and more regions could find themselves without coverage. Louisiana and Florida are already losing coverage thanks to predictions of an active hurricane season, Axios reports. Ironically, State Farm has announced its intent to remain in Florida despite large competitors like Farmers and AAA pulling out.

What’s being done?

Michael Soller, the California deputy insurance commissioner, told Axios in an email that the California Department of Insurance is dedicated to protecting consumers in the long run.

“We have been here before after major wildfires,” he said. “What’s different is the actions that we are taking with the first-ever insurance discount program for wildfire safety and unprecedented wildfire mitigation investments from the Legislature and Governor.”

In other words, the CDI is working with the state government to lower insurance costs and reduce the risk of wildfires so that insurers can be secure operating in the area once again.

SINS OF THE FATHER

Libya asks Lebanon to release Gadhafi's detained son who is on hunger strike, officials say

BASSEM MROUE
Mon, August 14, 2023 

Hannibal Gadhafi, son of ousted Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, watches an elite military unit exercise in Zlitan, Libya, Sept. 25, 2011. Libya's judicial authorities have formally asked Lebanon's prosecutor general to help in the release of Hannibal Gadhafi, who was held in Lebanon since 2015 because of his deteriorating health conditions, judicial officials said Monday, Aug 14, 2023. 

(AP Photo/Abdel Magid al-Fergany, File) 

BEIRUT (AP) — Libya’s judicial authorities have formally asked Lebanon to release one of the late dictator Moammar Gadhafi’s sons, held without charges in Lebanon since 2015 because of his deteriorating health, officials said Monday.

The health of Hannibal Gadhafi has been deteriorating since he went on hunger strike on June 3, to protest his detention without trial. He was taken to hospital at least twice since then and has been only drinking small amounts of water.

According to two Lebanese judicial officials, Libya’s prosecutor general Al-Sediq al-Sour, sent a request earlier this month to his Lebanese counterpart, Ghassan Oueidat, regarding Hannibal Gadhafi. The officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

The note stated that Lebanon’s cooperation in this matter could help reveal the truth regarding the fate of a prominent Lebanese Shiite cleric, Moussa al-Sadr, who went missing in Libya in 1978.

It questioned why Gadhafi was being held and asked that he be either handed over to Libya or be allowed to return to Syria, where he had been living in exile with his Lebanese wife, Aline Skaf, and children until he was abducted and brought to Lebanon eight years ago.

The Lebanese prosecutor then referred the case to Zaher Hamadeh, the investigative judge in the missing cleric's case, who is studying the Libyan request and would respond in time.

Hannibal Gadhafi has been detained in Lebanon since 2015 after he was abducted by Lebanese militants demanding information on the whereabouts of the cleric. Lebanese police later announced it had picked up Gadhafi from the city of Baalbek in northeastern Lebanon, where he was being held. He has since been held in a Beirut jail.

The disappearance of al-Sadr in 1978 has been a long-standing sore point in Lebanon. The cleric’s family believes he may still be alive in a Libyan prison, though most Lebanese presume al-Sadr is dead. He would be 94 years old.

He was the founder of the Amal group, Arabic for “hope,” and an acronym for the militia’s Arabic name, the Lebanese Resistance Brigades. The group later fought in Lebanon’s 1975-90 civil war. Lebanon’s powerful Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri heads the group.

Most of al-Sadr’s followers are convinced that Moammar Gadhafi ordered al-Sadr killed in a dispute over Libyan payments to Lebanese militias.

Libya has maintained that the cleric and his two traveling companions left Tripoli in 1978 on a flight to Rome and suggested he was a victim of a power struggle among Shiites.

Moammar Gadhafi was killed by opposition fighters during Libya's 2011 uprising turned civil war, ending his four-decade rule of the North African country.

Hannibal Gadhafi, who was born two years before al-Sadr disappeared, fled to Algeria after his father was toppled and Tripoli fell to opposition fighters, along with his mother and several other relatives. He later made it to Syria where he was given political asylum and stayed there until he was abducted.

Syrian authorities at the time blasted Hannibal Gadhafi’s seizure “by an armed gang” and have been demanding he be returned to Syria.

The late Moammar Gadhafi had eight children from two marriages. Most of them played significant roles in his regime. His son Muatassim was killed at the same time as Gadhafi was captured and slain. Two other sons, Seif al-Arab and Khamis, were killed earlier on in the uprising.

Seif al-Islam, the one-time heir apparent to his father, has been in Libya since his release from detention there in 2017. Gadhafi's son Mohammed and daughter Aisha live in Oman. Al-Saadi, a former soccer player, was released from prison in Libya in 2021 after being jailed following repatriation from Niger in 2014.

FOLKLORE STUDIES
Did you miss snow last winter? Here's what the Farmers' Almanac is predicting this year

Katie Landeck and Hadley Barndollar, Providence Journal

Mon, August 14, 2023 

Last winter may have been marked by mild weather and short bursts of deep freezes, but according to the Farmers' Almanac, don't expect those mild temperatures this winter.

Prepare to be cold and prepare for snow.

Plow working through East Providence clearing snow and slush from the winter storm Monday evening. Tuesday, Feb 28, 2023. [The Providence Journal / Kris Craig]

"After a weird and warm winter season last year, this winter should make cold weather fans rejoice — especially those in the Great Lakes, Midwest, and northern New England areas,” editor Peter Geiger said in a press release. “The ‘brrr’ is coming back! We expect more snow and low temperatures nationwide.”

The Farmers' Almanac is calling for a return to cold and snow this winter in New England, the Great Lakes and the Midwest.

What to expect in winter 2023-2024 in Rhode Island

The Farmers' Almanac is forecasting "below-average temperatures and lots of snowstorms, sleet, ice, rain" in New England and quite a few other spots in the country.

While there wasn't a lot of snow last year, they're saying the whole Interstate 95 corridor from Washington to Boston should expect to contend with quite a bit of the white stuff this year. Prepare to get your snowblower back out.

Here are some of the more specific predictions:

"The second week of January will be stormy, snowy, and wet for both the Pacific Coast and the Eastern States."


"An East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states will bring snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures, during the second week of February."

"Another East Coast storm will bring a wintry mess to this area during the first week of March."

"A possible late-season snowfall over the high terrain of New England during the third week of April won’t be a fun “April Fools’ Day” prank!"

How does the Farmers' Almanac make predictions?

The Farmers' Almanac, which is slightly different from the Old Farmer's Almanac and was founded in 1818, uses sunspot activity, tidal action of the moon, the position of the planets and other factors.

The Farmers' Almanac claims to have secret formulas. The only person who allegedly knows the exact formula of the Farmers' Almanac is its weather prognosticator, who goes by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee.

Published reports have said the Farmers' Almanac takes into account climate change.

Are the Farmers' Almanac's predictions accurate?

So, how accurate are the predictions each year?

The Farmers' Almanac claims an accuracy rate of about 80% to 85%.

Others are less sure. A 2010 University of Illinois study found the Farmers' Almanac to be correct only about 50% of the time when the researchers compared the forecasts with the real weather data.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M
Bankman-Fried charged with using stolen customer funds for $100 million in US political donations

Luc Cohen
Mon, August 14, 2023

Former FTX Chief Executive Bankman-Fried at a courthouse in New York

(Reuters) - Sam Bankman-Fried used stolen customer funds to make more than $100 million in political campaign contributions ahead of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, federal prosecutors said on Monday in a new indictment filed against the FTX cryptocurrency exchange's founder.

The new indictment charges the 31-year-old former billionaire with seven counts of conspiracy and fraud over the collapse of the exchange.

He has previously pleaded not guilty to charges of stealing billions in FTX customer funds to plug losses at Alameda Research, his crypto-focused hedge fund.

Mark Botnick, a spokesman for Bankman-Fried, declined to comment.

Bankman-Fried rode a boom in cryptocurrency values to amass a net worth estimated at $26 billion, and became an influential donor to mostly Democratic candidates and causes. But the November 2022 collapse of FTX - after a flurry of customer withdrawals due to concerns about commingling of FTX and Alameda funds - decimated both his wealth and his reputation.

In the superseding indictment filed on Monday, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Manhattan said Bankman-Fried directed other FTX executives to make donations in order to evade contribution limits, as part of a push for crypto-friendly regulation.

"He leveraged this influence, in turn, to lobby Congress and regulatory agencies to support legislation and regulation he believed would make it easier for FTX to continue to accept customer deposits and grow," the indictment read.

Prosecutors had initially charged him with violating U.S. campaign finance laws, but dropped that charge in late July after the Bahamas said it had never intended to extradite Bankman-Fried to the United States on that charge. FTX was based in the Bahamas, and he was arrested there last December.

In a letter last week to U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan, prosecutors indicated they would soon file a new indictment that "will make clear that Mr. Bankman-Fried remains charged with conducting an illegal campaign finance scheme as part of the fraud and money laundering schemes originally charged."

Kaplan on Friday ordered Bankman-Fried jailed ahead of his Oct. 2 trial, after finding probable cause to believe he had tampered with witnesses twice. He had previously been largely confined to his parents' Palo Alto, California, home on $250 million bond since his extradition.

(Reporting by Luc Cohen in San Jose, California; Editing by Chris Reese, David Gregorio and Jonathan Oatis)

College students develop solar-powered car that literally ‘eats’ air pollution as it drives: ‘We pulled it off’

Eliot Engelmaier
Mon, August 14, 2023 

Meet the solar-powered electric vehicle that cleans carbon pollution from the air as you drive it: the Zem car. This super sporty and sleek magic car has been described as “carbon eating.”

The vehicle was developed by a team of students at Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands. The car is suited with a carbon capture device on its underbelly, and the body of the car itself isn’t made of materials typically seen on cars –– but is instead made using recycled plastics formed by a 3D printer.

Teamwork was the name of the game when it came to development: The base group was a team of students, and partner sponsors sourced the materials. The Zem car has lithium-ion batteries from Dutch company Cleantron, gets up to 15% of its charge via solar panels from Watllab, and has its carbon output studied thanks to a lifestyle analysis conducted with SimaPro software.

The 2021 team’s goal was “zero emissions mobility,” which led to the name “Zem.” As the team worked on this innovative vehicle, they realized that achieving carbon neutrality was impossible without a new solution. So they decided they needed to find a way for the Zem car to remove carbon from the air.

The solution came by way of two filters on the underside of the car, which do their job while the car is in motion. As it is driven, air passes through the filter while carbon dioxide sticks to it.

The filters have to be emptied every 200 miles, but the Zem car team has already developed a solution to mitigate the potential hassle. They designed an EV charging station that extracts the carbon dioxide so that it can be repurposed for other clean fuels or safely stored to keep it out of the atmosphere.

The Zem car, at this stage, is an awesome concept with lots of room to grow. The carbon capture device currently captures only 4.41 pounds of carbon dioxide for every 20,000 miles –– this is only 0.04% of the average vehicle’s annual carbon and less than one-tenth the amount that the average tree absorbs annually.

The team continues to work to bring the Zem car to what they believe is its full potential — carbon neutrality. Even further, the Zem car serves as an example to the industry of what is possible.

“We pulled it off: Thrifty-five students with a lot of eagerness but a lot less experience than the main industry that we are competing with,” says Nikki Okkels, the external relations manager for TU/ecomotive, in an interview with CNN. “We’re just showing the big industry what is possible.”

We can’t wait to see the progress made as the Zem car and this carbon-removing technology evolve as the vehicle develops.

TARGETING CIVILIANS IS A WAR CRIME
Ethiopian airstrike on a town square in the restive Amhara region kills 26, health official says
CARA ANNA
Updated Mon, August 14, 2023

 Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, left, accompanied by House speaker Tagesse Chafo, right, addresses the parliament in the capital Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on Nov. 15, 2022. Authorities in Ethiopia are carrying out mass arrests of hundreds, even thousands, of people in the capital after deadly unrest in the country’s Amhara region, lawyers and witnesses said. Ethiopia’s parliament is to vote Monday Aug. 14, 2023 on giving formal approval to extraordinary measures which allow authorities to arrest suspects without a warrant, conduct searches and impose curfews.

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — An airstrike on a crowded town square in Ethiopia’s restive Amhara region killed at least 26 people and wounded more than 55 others, a senior health official said Monday, days after authorities asserted that calm had been restored in the area.

Local militia members have been clashing with Ethiopia’s military over efforts to disband them, and last week the military retook key Amhara towns by force.

The airstrike hit the center of the Finote Selam community on Sunday, said the health official, who like other people spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation. The official said 22 people died at the scene and several of the wounded had to undergo amputations.

Two residents said the airstrike targeted a truck carrying civilians who were returning from delivering food to fighters with the militia known as Fano. Their account could not be verified.

A federal government spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“We heard a heavy sound coming from the sky,” a local teacher said. “When it fell, lots of people were killed and injured.”

The state-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission on Monday noted “credible reports of strikes and shelling” in Finote Selam and other Amhara towns “resulting in many civilian casualties.” It also said Amhara regional officials were the target of attacks, with some killed, “resulting in the temporary collapse of local state structure in many areas.”

Ethiopia’s Cabinet declared a state of emergency earlier this month in the Amhara region. The Fano militia had fought alongside Ethiopian military forces in a two-year conflict in the neighboring Tigray region, which ended with a peace deal last November.

Lawyers and witnesses say authorities are now carrying out mass arrests of hundreds, even thousands, of people in Ethiopia’s capital amid the Amhara unrest.

The emergency measures allow authorities to arrest suspects without a warrant, conduct searches and impose curfews. Under a previous state of emergency imposed during the Tigray conflict, tens of thousands of ethnic Tigrayans were rounded up across the country.

This time, “there has been widespread arrest of civilians who are of ethnic Amhara origin,” the rights commission said.

Two lawyers said the emergency measures also appear to be in effect in the capital, Addis Ababa, where suspects are being held at police stations, schools and other makeshift detention centers after being swept off the streets. The lawyers, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear of retribution.

One lawyer said he visited seven schools and police stations last week where “hundreds” of people were held. The other lawyer, citing police sources, said 3,000 people had been arrested in Addis Ababa.

A third lawyer said he encountered several young people last week at police stations and courts in Addis Ababa who had been arrested and accused of having links to the Fano militia.

One man, an ethnic Amhara, said he was picked up off the street last week by plainclothes police officers who overheard him discussing the recent unrest on the phone. He said he was held at a school with hundreds of others before being taken to a police station. He was released on Thursday without any charge.

Another man said his brother was arrested in Addis Ababa a day before the state of emergency was declared and is being detained at a school with several hundred others. Most of the detainees there are young boys, said the man, who has visited his brother twice.

The federal government said only 23 people have been arrested under the state of emergency in Addis Ababa. Those include Christian Tadele, an outspoken opposition lawmaker who should have immunity from arrest under Ethiopia’s Constitution as a member of parliament.

“(N)o suspect has been arrested apart from these 23 individuals and the information circulating that there are mass arrests is wrong,” the federal government’s communication service said Friday.

The rights commission has urged that the state of emergency be limited to one month and “to the specific place where the special danger is said to have occurred, rather than applying it throughout the entire country.”
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U$A

Gen Z influencers, quietly recruited by a company with deep GOP ties, rally to impeached Ken Paxton’s aid

Robert Downen
Mon, August 14, 2023 

Former Donald Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale, shown during a bus tour stop on Sept. 3, 2020, in San Antonio, was among those who met with social media influencers at a recent event sponsored by Influenceable LLC. Credit: Christopher Lee for The Texas Tribune


In late June, about a dozen conservative Gen Z influencers converged on Fort Worth for a few days of right-wing networking. They hit local night spots, posed for group photos and met a far-right Texas billionaire and Donald Trump’s former campaign chair.

And then they took to social media to rally their many followers behind a new, controversial film about human trafficking before turning their support to impeached Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The event was sponsored by a fledgling company, Influenceable LLC, that recruits young, conservative social media figures to promote political campaigns and films without disclosing their business relationship. On its website, the company touts itself as the “world’s largest network of digital activists” and offers clients the power to “cultivate a community of influencers to leverage their credibility” with audiences.

Photos from the event show that Influenceable has powerful allies. Among the speakers were Brad Parscale, who recently moved to Texas after years running the Trump campaign’s digital strategy, and Tim Dunn, the West Texas oil tycoon who has given tens of millions of dollars to ultraconservative movements and candidates in Texas — including Paxton.

Now Influenceable appears to be recruiting young conservatives to parrot claims that the attorney general is the victim of a political witch hunt and, more recently, to promote a series of videos alleging that the Texas Legislature is secretly controlled by Democrats intent on destroying Paxton and other conservatives.

The company’s emergence comes amid Republican initiatives to connect with young Americans who tend to be more supportive of liberal policies.

Tim Dunn, a West Texas oil executive and prominent donor to ultraconservative campaigns and movements in Texas, speaks at The Texas Tribune Festival in Austin on Sept. 24, 2016. Credit: Brett Buchanan for The Texas Tribune

And while legal experts said Influenceable’s methods don’t appear to run afoul of campaign finance and political advertising rules, the company has already irked some Republicans who say its approaches are deceptive and harmful to democracy. State Rep. Tom Oliverson, R-Cypress, said he may propose new laws to strengthen disclosure requirements because of companies like Influenceable, saying they create “manufactured outrage” and further polarize the country.

“It disgusts me,” Oliverson said in an interview. “It calls into question the value and the validity of their entire message as an influencer. … I think they should all be investigated. I think the company should be investigated, and I think all of these influencers should be outed.”

Dunn, Parscale and Influenceable representatives did not respond to repeated interview requests.

Ties to an “anti-woke” company

Influenceable is closely linked to another right-wing organization, Today Is America Inc., a self-described “anti-woke” social media company that was founded in 2019 by North Carolina brothers Camron and Liam Rafizadeh. The company quickly rose to prominence on platforms such as Instagram, where it continues to deluge its quarter-million followers with anti-LGBTQ+ memes and pro-Trump talking points.

According to LinkedIn, Camron Rafizadeh is Influenceable’s CEO, Liam Rafizadeh is a co-founder and another high-ranking Today Is America employee, Tim Korshunov, leads development.

Liam Rafizadeh also ran the well-known Republican Hype House account on TikTok, which had 1.2 million followers before it was taken down when the platform targeted misinformation ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

The Rafizadeh brothers also attracted the attention of GOP operatives: Business filings for Today Is America LLC, one of a few companies associated with the Today Is America brand, list unsuccessful North Carolina congressional candidate Bo Hines as its CEO. Its chief financial officer is Jason Boles, who was the campaign treasurer for U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., before he joined the campaign of famed fabulist U.S. Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y. Boles is also the leader of Heal the Divide, a political action committee backing the presidential campaign of anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Influenceable was first registered in August 2022 in the infamous Corporation Trust Center, a one-story building in Wilmington, Delaware, that some 300,000 corporations — including Google, Apple and Walmart — have used as a registration address to take advantage of the so-called “Delaware loophole” that allows them to avoid taxes and many public disclosures.

Influenceable’s website touts a partnership with Campaign Nucleus, a company that Parscale began developing seven years ago. Parscale’s digital prowess is legendary: The San Antonio native spent decades working in marketing before leading the 2016 Trump campaign’s digital strategy — his first foray into politics — and playing a key role in Trump’s unexpected ascendancy to the Oval Office. He served as Trump’s campaign manager from February 2018 until July 2020, when he was demoted. Parscale left the campaign a few months later after his wife made, then retracted, domestic violence accusations.

Campaign Nucleus promotes itself as an all-in-one digital “ecosystem” that cuts out third-party platforms and protects conservatives from “cancel culture.”

“Stop wasting time using big tech platforms to reach audiences,” Campaign Nucleus’ website says. “Talk to people directly.”

CJ Pearson speaking at an event in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on Nov. 3, 2021.

 Credit: Gage Skidmore/Wikimedia

As heat waves strained the Texas power grid last year, Campaign Nucleus reportedly pushed anti-renewable-energy talking points favored by oil and gas companies, and Trump’s campaign has also reportedly used Campaign Nucleus. Earlier this year, Parscale appears to have moved from Florida to Midland, home to a significant portion of the state’s energy industry as well as Dunn, an oil executive who has spent tens of millions of dollars to promote his far-right, anti-LGBTQ+ and religious views.

Dunn, Parscale and Dunn’s son David, a Christian music artist, spoke at the Fort Worth event, according to Instagram photos posted by Korshunov that were deleted after The Texas Tribune reached out to Influenceable and Dunn for comment.

“Are you Influenceable?” Korshunov wrote in the caption.

Well-known attendees chimed in: “I’m influenced,” commented CJ Pearson, a conservative Gen Z activist with more than 440,000 followers on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, who was at the Fort Worth event.

“BIG Influenceable guy,” responded Xaviaer DuRousseau, who also attended the event and works with Pearson at PragerU, an activist group that pushes “alternative” educational materials aimed at young conservatives.

PragerU — which was recently allowed to provide curriculum to Florida public schools despite being unaccredited — did not respond to requests for comment about its relationship with Influenceable or requests to make DuRousseau or Pearson available for interviews.
Promoting movies, coming to Paxton’s defense

In the weeks after the Fort Worth event, a pattern emerged on many attendees’ social media profiles: In posts to Instagram Reels, TikTok or X, they warned their hundreds of thousands of collective followers about “an issue” that is “rarely talked about” or is “being swept under the rug” — human trafficking.

They frequently listed misleading statistics about the annual rate of abducted or missing children, sometimes inserting their own conspiracy theories about “globalists” and “Hollywood elites” running trafficking rings aided by Democratic immigration policies.

Actor Jim Caviezel at the “Sound of Freedom” movie premiere in Miami Beach, Florida, on June 23, 2022. Credit: Alberto E. Tamargo/Sipa USA via REUTERS

And then they’d pivot to their calls to action, telling followers they could save innocent kids and fight evil liberals by simply going to see a new movie, “Sound of Freedom,” and urging others to do the same.

The movie tells the story of Operation Underground Railroad and its founder, Tim Ballard, who has for years been condemned by anti-trafficking groups for his flirtation with QAnon conspiracy theories and for his group’s methods, which experts say endanger children and interfere with the work of local child protection agencies.

The film’s star, Jim Caviezel, is also a leading QAnon figure who has said he believes that global elites derive their power from adrenaline extracted from children as they are raped or tortured — an extreme QAnon theory that borrows heavily from Nazi and other antisemitic propaganda.

Since leaving the Fort Worth event, Parscale and nine other attendees posted about “Sound of Freedom” at least 50 times, often using the same talking points, promotional hashtags and studio-quality movie clips. As criticism of the movie poured in, many of them alleged that the pushback was part of a sinister and coordinated attack by Democrats and the media. Jeffrey Epstein’s name was sometimes invoked.

“Sound of Freedom exposes the dark realities of human trafficking that are largely ignored by legacy media, and perpetuated by left-wing open border policy,” wrote Blake Kresses, a Fort Worth-based podcaster who previously worked for Jeff Younger, an anti-transgender activist whose unsuccessful 2022 Texas House campaign was financed by one of Dunn’s groups.

“Liberals, why are you so mad that people are trying to bring awareness to human trafficking? Is there something going on there?” asked Vince Dao, a conservative influencer with 196,000 Instagram followers. “Everyone watching this: Be sure to go see ‘Sound of Freedom’ to send them a message.”

The film’s producer, Angel Studios, did not respond to multiple requests for comment about its relationship with Influenceable. Neither Kresses, Dao or others responded to Instagram messages, texts or phone calls.

Some of the attendees have since begun posting about a new anti-vaccination film, “Remedy,” that prominently features Kennedy Jr., whose presidential bid has been bankrolled by a super PAC run by Boles, the Today Is America CFO.

The influencers have also been vocal about Paxton, parroting anti-impeachment talking points favored by his biggest donors — including Defend Texas Liberty PAC, which gave $18,000 to a similarly named company, Influencable LLC, shortly before the Texas House’s investigation into Paxton was made public.

In the 48 hours before the Texas House voted to impeach Paxton on May 27, at least six of the Fort Worth event attendees made strikingly similar posts in which they accused House Speaker Dade Phelan of being an alcoholic, claimed Republicans in Name Only — “RINOs” — were attacking Paxton for his conservative values, and used a handful of unique hashtags such as #TXKangarooCourt and #TexasCorruption to rail against the House investigation.

Other major social media figures who were not at the Fort Worth event, but are pictured on Influenceable’s website, made similar posts supporting Paxton and condemning House leaders.

More recently, Influenceable appears to be recruiting social media figures to share posts about a new film that claims the Texas Legislature is secretly controlled by Democrats intent on destroying Paxton, a claim that has for years been pushed by Dunn-backed groups.

Screenshots of one of the recruitment pitches, which were published recently by the conservative website Current Revolt, offer influencers $50 for sharing one post about the film. Also listed were links to a payment website and to a tweet by Michael Quinn Sullivan, the longtime leader of Texas Scorecard, a far-right website that’s received millions of dollars from Dunn.

Defend Texas Liberty PAC is also primarily funded by Dunn and another West Texas oil billionaire, Farris Wilks. And the social media manager for Pale Horse Strategies — a consulting firm for Dunn-backed political campaigns — also attended the Fort Worth event.

Defend Texas Liberty and Texas Scorecard have for years been among Paxton’s biggest donors, defenders and cheerleaders. Texas Scorecard did not respond to interview requests. The leader of Defend Texas Liberty PAC declined requests for comment.

In other screenshots published by Current Revolt, the company offered $50 to influencers to share a specific post from Paxton’s personal X account by July 26. The recruitment text includes the name and number for Influencable’s head of recruitment operations and links to a payment portal that’s run by a company that Influenceable’s website lists as a partner.

On July 26, DuRousseau shared the Paxton post to his 144,000 followers, adding that “there are few patriots in leadership like Ken Paxton.”

Dao also shared the post: “RINOs in Texas are still trying to impeach Ken Paxton,” he wrote. “STOP THE WITCH HUNT!”

The Texas Tribune reviewed four of the leading influencers’ profiles on X and Instagram dating to January 2021 and found that most rarely — if ever — posted about Texas politics or Paxton prior to May. Pearson led the Teens for Ted (Cruz) group in 2015. Other than occasional posts about the border or gerrymandering, he does not appear to have frequently engaged with Texas politics. Dao has posted a few times about the border, while DuRousseau’s profile has primarily focused on race issues and anti-Black Lives Matter posts.

Kresses, who lives in Texas and served on Younger’s campaign, has been more vocal about state-level politics, telling his 14,000 Instagram followers to vote for Paxton and unsuccessful Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake in 2022, and urging them to vote no on a Michigan ballot measure to expand voting access — a post that he disclosed was a paid political advertisement.

“Getting paid by God-knows-who”

Influenceable’s tactics have been condemned by figures from across the conservative political spectrum.

Well-known white supremacist Nick Fuentes has repeatedly railed against the company, accusing it of working with Jewish political figures to paint him as an informant to federal law enforcement. Fuentes has also taken issue with the lack of disclosure by social media figures about their ties to the company.

“Why are they so afraid of people finding out about Influenceable?” Fuentes said during a February podcast. “Is it because people aren’t supposed to know that influencers are getting paid by God-knows-who to literally follow instructions like animals?”

The Federal Trade Commission says social media influencers should “make it obvious” when they have a “material connection” — including any “financial, employment, personal or family” relationship — with a brand.

But campaign law experts say there is little that state or federal regulators can do to force more disclosures when it comes to political messaging.

Ian Vandewalker, an expert on the influence of money in politics and elections at the Brennan Center, said federal campaign regulations have not been seriously updated since the early 2000s. He said outdated rules, coupled with recent court rulings, have allowed dark-money groups and popular social media figures to have outsized — and often undisclosed — sway over political discourse.

“The laws around disclosure of campaign spending assumed a traditional model, like paying somebody to print your ad in the newspaper or paying a TV station to play your ad on the air,” he said. “Paying an influencer to talk about a candidate doesn’t fit into those traditional definitions, and so it’s slipping through the cracks.”

In Texas, there are some restrictions on out-of-state donations and on when donors can give to certain politicians, campaigns and “specific-purpose committees.” The state also requires disclosures of “express advocacy” political advertising, which the Texas Ethics Commission says is undefined by law but includes “any time a candidate, a candidate’s agent, or a political action committee authorizes political advertising.”

Groups and individuals who are not directly connected to candidates or campaigns are also required to make disclosures if they are clearly advocating for the election or defeat of a candidate or for the passage or defeat of a measure.

But the state’s rules otherwise "allow dark money to run amok and do whatever it wants,” said Roger Borgelt, an Austin lawyer who specializes in campaign finance and election law.

“If you’re not actually advocating for or against the election of someone or a proposition, then you pretty much fall outside” most regulations, he said.

State Rep. Tom Oliverson, R-Cypress, on the House floor at the state Capitol in Austin on May 12, 2023. Credit: Evan L'Roy/The Texas Tribune

Oliverson, the Republican state representative, said he’d like to address those gaps when the Legislature’s next regular session begins in 2025. Though he declined to comment on promotions regarding Paxton because of a gag rule ahead of Paxton’s impeachment trial, Oliverson said he was deeply troubled by the idea that influencers are getting paid to advocate for positions without revealing their financial stakes.

“I’m somebody who cares about truth and motivation,” he said. “I really dislike manufactured outrage and manufactured narratives. I prefer people to be honest, straightforward and truthful. And so I do think that, at a bare minimum, these things should have to be disclosed.”

The full program is now LIVE for the 2023 Texas Tribune Festival, happening Sept. 21-23 in Austin. Explore the program featuring more than 100 unforgettable conversations coming to TribFest. Panel topics include the biggest 2024 races and what’s ahead, how big cities in Texas and around the country are changing, the integrity of upcoming elections and so much more. See the full program.

Argentine peso plunges after rightist who admires Trump comes first in primary vote

DANIEL POLITI
Updated Mon, August 14, 2023 

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Javier Milei, presidential candidate of the Liberty Advances coalition, speaks at his campaign headquarters after polling stations closed during primary elections in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Sunday, Aug. 13, 2023. (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — The Argentine peso plunged Monday after an anti-establishment candidate who admires former President Donald Trump came first in primary elections that will help determine the country's next president.

Javier Milei rocked Argentina’s political establishment by receiving the biggest share of primary votes for presidential candidates in the October general election to decide who leads a nation battered by economic woes.

Milei, 52, wants to replace the peso with the dollar, and says that Argentina’s Central Bank should be abolished. He has said that climate change is a lie and has characterized sex education as a ploy to destroy the family. He has also said that the sale of human organs should be legal.

Gun ownership is severely restricted in Argentina. Milei proposes the “deregulation of the legal market” for weapons and “the protection of its legitimate and responsible use by the citizens,” according to his party’s electoral platform.

Argentina’s government decided to devalue the local currency by 20% early Monday morning after the surprising Sunday showing. Two mainstream political coalitions have traded power for a decade in Argentina. The country is now the latest where voters have picked an outsider candidate to express anger against the status quo.

Operators were watching nervously Monday as the value of the peso also decreased in the parallel, or blue, market, dropping 12% by early afternoon.

The drop in the value of the peso means that already-high inflation will accelerate, making getting to the end of the month even harder for ordinary people.

“The more the dollar rises, the more expensive things become,” Marta Gisela Barrera, a 29-year-old urban recycler who has trouble buying enough food for her four children, said on Monday morning. “I don’t know what’s going to happen anymore.”

Argentina requires that citizens vote, with a symbolic financial penalty for not voting, and 69 percent of the country's 35 million voters went to the polls, each choosing candates for positions ranging from local councilman to president. It marked the lowest participation for presidential primaries since the current system was set up in 2009.

The major parties had contested races to be its presidential candidate. Milei was uncontested, and got a few points more than the candidates of parties that have dominated Argentine politics.

After doing much better than expected, the upstart candidate with long sideburns and shaggy hair who gained notoriety and a rockstar-like following by angrily ranting against the “political caste” is now a real contender for the presidency.

In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro was president from 2019 to 2022, and had a similar anti-left and anti-social justice orientation. Right-wing populists are also making inroads with a tough-on-crime message, most notably in El Salvador, where the popularity of President Nayib Bukele has soared amid a crackdown on gangs that has led to human-rights abuses.

With around 97% of polling locations reporting, Milei had around 30% of the total vote, according to official results. The candidates in the main opposition coalition, United for Change, were at 28% and the governing Union for the Homeland coalition had 27%.

In order to win the vote in two months, Milei would have to increase his share of the nation's votes by 15%, a high hurdle even in a nation where voters tend to favor candidates they see as winners.

If one candidate doesn't receive 45% of the vote, they would need 40% and a 10-point lead over the second-place candidate. Otherwise the race would go to a November runoff between the top two.

Celebrating in his election headquarters, Milei vowed to bring “an end to the parasitic, corrupt and useless political caste that exists in this country.”

“Today we took the first step toward the reconstruction of Argentina,” he said. “A different Argentina is impossible with the same people as always.”

In Buenos Aires on Monday, Milei's supporters seemed most excited about someone new coming into the scene.

“We always end up going back to the other party, then the other comes back, and it’s a cycle that keeps us in the same situation,” Clara Costa, a 54-year-old administrative assistant, said.

Milei has been a lawmaker in the lower house of Argentina’s Congress since 2021.

Argentina is struggling with annual inflation over 100%, rising poverty and a rapidly depreciating currency, and Milei first attracted wider support by calling for the country to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar.

Milei would need Congress to support that and that would be highly unlikely. As a result, he has said he would push for a referendum or a non-binding popular vote on the issue, although it’s also unclear if he would be able to push that through without the support of lawmakers.

Aked about the vote in Argentina, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador stated that inflation and economic crises “always benefit the right and conservatism, which is somewhat what’s happening in Argentina,” and he mentioned the case of Hitler. He immediately made clear he wasn't making a direct comparison between the two but said it was “important to remember” that “inflation actually helped” Hitler rise to power.

Bolsonaro’s lawmaker son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, celebrated the results, characterizing them on social media as “an excellent start to what could be the real change that Argentina needs.” Days before the primaries, former President Bolsonaro published a short video wishing Milei luck in the election.

The main opposition coalition, United for Change, moved more to the right as former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich, who made toughness on crime a centerpiece of her campaign, handily beat a more centrist contender.

In the currently governing coalition, Union for the Homeland, the more business friendly candidate — Economy Minister Sergio Massa — easily beat a leftist contender but still took an overall beating from voters frustrated over the poor state of the economy, finishing in third place for total votes.

At Milei’s electoral headquarters, party leaders were ecstatic while people celebrated outside, expressing optimism that their candidate’s support would only grow in the run-up to October.

“I like his ideas about freedom,” said Orlando Sánchez, 26, a retail worker. “If criminals walk around with guns on their belts, why can’t an ordinary citizen have one lawfully and with the proper documentation? People are clearly tired of politics, being constantly lied to.”

___

Associated Press journalists Almudena Calatrava, Débora Rey, Natacha Pisarenko and Victor R. Caivano contributed to this report.

Hard-Right rock singer and ‘tantric sex instructor’ takes shock lead in Argentinian elections

James Crisp
Mon, August 14, 2023 


Javier Milei, presidential candidate of the Liberty Advances coalition, celebrates after dealing the incumbent Peronist party a historic defeat - NATACHA PISARENKO/AP


A hard-Right radical economist, former rock singer and self-described “tantric sex instructor” has taken a shock lead in Argentina’s presidential primary elections after dealing the incumbent Peronist party a historic defeat.

Javier Milei, a libertarian conservative known as “The Wig” for his eccentric hairstyle, and who embraces comparisons with Donald Trump, is now the frontrunner in October’s elections after his triumph in a primary vote on Sunday.

“We are the true opposition,” Mr Milei said as he took aim at the centre-Left Peronist party, which has held power for 16 of the last 20 years and is largely controlled by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the former president.

“We’re not only going to end Kirchnerism, but we’re also going to end the useless, parasitic, criminal political caste that is sinking this country,” said Mr Milei, who wants his country to gain a Hong Kong-style gradual transfer of sovereignty over the Falklands from Britain.

With some 90 per cent of ballots counted, Mr Milei had 30.5 per cent of the vote, far higher than predicted - ALEJANDRO PAGNI/AFP

The 52-year-old outsider who was endorsed by Jair Bolsonaro, the former hard-Right president of Brazil, plans to adopt the dollar as the national currency and abolish Argentina’s central bank in a country suffering 116 per cent inflation and a cost of living crisis leaving four in 10 people in poverty.

The “anarcho-capitalist”, who has built ties with Spain’s hard-Right Vox party, has pledged to cut taxes and spearhead an austerity programme to help pay off the country’s $44 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund.

“A different Argentina is impossible with the same old things that have always failed,” Mr Milei said, before thanking his five mastiff dogs, each of which is named after a conservative economist.

Voting in the primaries is obligatory for most adults and each person gets one vote, making it in effect a dress rehearsal for the general election and giving a clear indication of who is the favourite to win the presidency.

The vote is intended to select candidates for each political party. But when each party’s total votes are tallied, they give a strong indication of which is most popular.

With some 90 per cent of ballots counted, Mr Milei had 30.5 per cent of the vote as the only candidate for the Liberty Advances party, far higher than predicted. In total, the candidates for the main conservative opposition bloc received 28 per cent of the vote while those for the ruling Peronist coalition came in at third place with 27 per cent.

Polls had predicted he would take just short of one-fifth of the vote.
‘This speaks of people’s anger with politics’

“Milei’s growth is a surprise. This speaks of people’s anger with politics,” said former conservative president Mauricio Macri as he arrived for the count.

The former singer with the band Everest, known for its Rolling Stone covers, was seen as a protest candidate with a history of making outlandish claims on chat shows.

In one instance, the climate change sceptic said he was a tantric sex instructor who could go three months without ejaculating after claiming he had various threesomes, 90 per cent of which were with two women.

Despite such boasts over his sexual prowess, Mr Milei claims to be a staunch Catholic and wants to limit abortion rights in all cases, unless the mother’s life is at risk. He blames cultural Marxism for the LGBT movement.

Mr Milei and his running mate have defended Argentina’s military dictatorship and suggested they would loosen gun laws and legalise the sale of human organs, which the congressman said the government has no business restricting.

Javier Milei embraces fellow party member Ramiro Marra, left, and his running-mate Victoria Villarruel, right, after polling stations closed on Sunday - NATACHA PISARENKO/AP

His Trump-like rallies and strong social media presence are thought to have helped the outsider outperform expectations amid widespread disillusionment with establishment parties, especially among the young, because of the economic crisis.

“Inflation is killing us and job uncertainty doesn’t let you plan your life,” said Adriana Alonso, a 42-year-old housewife.

“The Argentine people have finally woken up,” Rebeca Di Iorio, 44, an administrative worker celebrating at Mr Milei’s election-night street party in Buenos Aires, told the New York Times.

“Argentina needs that. It needs a change.”

Sergio Massa, currently serving as the minister of economy, won the nomination for the ruling Peronist coalition as expected, and could perform more strongly in October if he can win over more moderate voters.

Turnout was under 70 per cent, the lowest for a primary election since they were first held in Argentina over a decade ago.

Whoever wins in October, or more likely in a November runoff, will have big decisions to make on rebuilding depleted foreign reserves, boosting grain exports, reining in inflation and on how to unwind a tangle of currency controls.

Argentine far-right outsider Javier Milei posts shock win in primary election









August 13, 2023 
By Nicolás Misculin, Eliana Raszewski and Candelaria Grimberg

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentine voters punished the country's two main political forces in a primary election on Sunday, pushing a rock-singing libertarian outsider candidate into first place in a huge shake-up in the race towards presidential elections in October.

With some 90% of ballots counted, far-right libertarian economist Javier Milei had 30.5% of the vote, far higher than predicted, with the main conservative opposition bloc behind on 28% and the ruling Peronist coalition in third place on 27%.

The result is a stinging rebuke to the center-left Peronist coalition and the main Together for Change conservative opposition bloc with inflation at 116% and a cost-of-living crisis leaving four in 10 people in poverty.

"We are the true opposition," Milei said in a bullish speech after the results. "A different Argentina is impossible with the same old things that have always failed."

Voting in the primaries is obligatory for most adults and each person gets one vote, making it in effect a dress rehearsal for the Oct. 22 general election and giving a clear indication of who is the favorite to win the presidency.

The October election will be key for policy affecting Argentina's huge farm sector, one of the world's top exporters of soy, corn and beef, the peso currency and bonds, and ongoing talks over a $44 billion debt deal with the International Monetary Fund.

The economic crisis has left many Argentines disillusioned with the main political parties and opened the door for Milei, who struck a chord especially with the young.

"Inflation is killing us and job uncertainty doesn't let you plan your life," said Adriana Alonso, a 42-year-old housewife.

As polls closed in the early evening after voting system glitches caused long lines in capital Buenos Aires, all the talk in campaign hubs was about Milei, a brash outsider who has pledged to shutter the central bank and dollarize the economy.

"Milei's growth is a surprise. This speaks of people's anger with politics," said former conservative President Mauricio Macri as he arrived at Together for Change's election bunker.

CONSERVATIVE BULLRICH BEATS MODERATE LARRETA

In the most important leadership race, within the Together for Change coalition, hard-line conservative Patricia Bullrich, a former security minister, beat out moderate Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Larreta, who pledged to get behind her campaign.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa won the nomination for the ruling Peronist coalition, as expected, and could perform more strongly in October if he can win over more moderate voters.

The unpredictable factor had been Milei, whose loud rock-style rallies are reminiscent of ex-U.S. President Donald Trump, but he far outperformed all forecasts. Most polls had given him just shy of one-fifth of the likely vote, though were also badly wrong four years ago in the 2019 primaries.

Turnout was under 70%, the lowest for a primary election since they started to be held in Argentina over a decade ago.

Whoever wins in October, or more likely in a November runoff, will have big decisions to make on rebuilding depleted foreign reserves, boosting grains exports, reining in inflation and on how to unwind a thicket of currency controls.

Jorge Boloco, 58, a merchant, said Argentina need a "course into the future," but no party offered a clear way forward.

Maria Fernanda Medina, a 47-year-old teacher, said she had also lost some optimism about politicians truly bringing change after many years of revolving economic crises.

"I don't have much hope because in every election I feel a little disappointed," she said as she cast her ballot in Tigre, on the outskirts of Buenos Aires. "But hey, we can't lose all hope, right?"

(Reporting by Nicolás Misculin, Candelaria Grimberg, Walter Bianchi, Lucila Sigal, Maximilian Heath and Jorge Otaola; Writing by Adam Jourdan; Editing by Chris Reese and Stephen Coates)

Analysis-Could Argentine radical libertarian Javier Milei win the presidency?


Argentines react to the results of Presidential Primary Elections


Mon, August 14, 2023 
By Adam Jourdan, Eliana Raszewski and Anna-Catherine Brigida

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentine far-right libertarian Javier Milei shocked the country on Sunday when he won the largest share of the vote in open primary elections. Now the big question is can he repeat the trick in October general elections when it matters?

The primary, which sees all candidates compete against one another, is a good gauge of how the general election will go. Milei won 30% of the vote, just ahead of the main conservative bloc on 28% and the center-left ruling Peronists on 27%.

The firebrand economist, whose boisterous campaign rallies draws comparisons to former U.S. leader Donald Trump, could turn the political status quo on its head in Argentina. He has pledged to shutter the central bank, dollarize the economy and sharply cut state spending.

Milei, however, faces a bigger challenge to win the Oct. 22 general election, or likely a run-off in November, with some voters casting protest votes on Sunday and record low turnout, which dented the more traditional parties.

Those trends could shift in the next two months.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa, the candidate for the governing Peronist coalition, said that the primary vote was just the "first half" of the election competition, using a soccer analogy in the country of greats Lionel Messi and Diego Maradona.

"We have the second half, extra time and then penalties. And we will be fighting until the last minute," he said after the vote, which saw his coalition, the country's top political force for decades, post its worst primary election result.

Analysts said that more people could come out to vote in October after 69.5% turnout in the primary. There is on average a 4 percentage point bump in voter numbers between the primaries and the general election, J.P. Morgan said in a note.

This suggests "higher upside for traditional parties in the general elections as compared to Milei, which we see closer to its ceiling in terms of vote intention".

'MILEI PRESIDENT!'

That potential challenge has done little to dampen spirits in Milei's camp, delighted at far exceeding pollster estimates of around one-fifth of the vote in the primary.

"We can feel it! Milei president!", his fans chanted as the elections results were announced.

The Together for Change conservative coalition pledged to unite behind its elected candidate Patricia Bullrich, a hard-line former security minister, though she said the vote had revealed that people wanted something new.

"This is a society that's demands deep change, down to the roots," she said, promising security, reasonable taxes and ending years of uncertainty and government red tape.

Julio Cobos, a lawmaker with Together for Change, agreed voters had expressed themselves in the polls and were demanding profound change, but the race was still very much open.

"The challenge is the final election which is October," he said, adding the coalition had plenty of room to boost its performance if it stuck together.

"We hope to grow and win in the next elections. It is important that the leaders show up together, unify proposals, speeches, and present as a good team," he said.

Beyond doubt is the fact that the race, previously seen as between the two main parties with Milei a dark horse likely grabbing an notable third place, is now a true three-way fight. Each of the top candidates could make the run-off.

"The election race is now divided in three, which it wasn't before," said Alejandro Corbacho, director of the political science program at Argentine university UCEMA.

"It is clear that there is a lot of anger. People are very angry with the political classes."

Jared Lou, a portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management, said that Milei had made himself the "front-runner" but there was lots of uncertainty.

"One factor that may help Milei in the presidential elections is that he's an outsider and voters are frustrated," he said. Lou added his views on promoting gun ownership, anti- abortion policies and dollarizing the economy - something most Argentines oppose - could ultimately put off some voters.

A dollar-peso peg introduced in the 1990s brought short-term benefits but ended in an ugly devaluation.

"Many of the policies he has campaigned on are viewed as fairly radical by the electorate."

(Reporting by Adam Jourdan, Anna-Catherine Brigida, Eliana Raszewski, Jorgelina do Rosario and Lucila Sigal; Editing by Aurora Ellis)