Wednesday, October 04, 2023

 

Pandemic boosted gardening, hunting in NYS


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CORNELL UNIVERSITY




A survey of New York state residents found that nearly half of respondents increased the amount of time they spent on wild and backyard food in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, confirming anecdotes about increases in activities such as sourdough baking, fishing and gardening. People also tended to eat the food they produced, researchers found, possibly buffering the generally less healthful eating that was common at the time.

“This was the period of 2020 when you couldn't find tomato cages, seeds were out of stock, and there were reports about record numbers of people hunting and fishing,” said Kathryn Fiorella, assistant professor in the Department of Public and Ecosystem Health at Cornell University and senior author of “Wild and Backyard Food Use During COVID-19 in Upstate New York, United States,” published in the journal Frontiers in Nutrition.

The researchers conducted a survey of more than 500 people across Broome, Cortland, Onondaga, Oswego, Cayuga and Seneca counties. Participants reported on their production and consumption of wild and backyard foods – from gardening, poultry rearing, foraging and hunting and/or fishing – during the pandemic compared with the previous year. Because respondents were recruited in a convenience sample, they likely overrepresented interest in these activities. They also tended to be whiter, more educated and wealthier than average New Yorkers.

Results showed that only a small number of participants were new to wild and backyard food-related pursuits, and across different activities, 40% to 46% of people increased the amount of time they invested. Conversely, a notable minority of respondents reduced their activities.

The researchers were especially interested to see whether people also consumed the food they produced. Indeed, they did. While diets generally worsened during the pandemic, gardening and poultry rearing for meat and eggs may have contributed to buffering those effects in the study region.

“People were actually consuming really meaningful quantities,” Fiorella said, including home-produced eggs and meat, and backyard-grown fruits and vegetables.

“People reported harvesting and eating wild and backyard foods to have more control over food availability, a key dimension of food insecurity, compared to before the pandemic,” said doctoral student Jeanne Coffin-Schmitt. “This was true even though the people we surveyed were almost entirely considered food secure based on their responses. We think this could show how much anxiety about conventional food systems the pandemic inspired.”

 

For additional information, read this Cornell Chronicle story. 

Cornell University has dedicated television and audio studios available for media interviews.

 

- 30 -

 


Underappreciation of LGBT executives creates investment opportunity


A ‘rainbow ceiling’ contributes to LGBT-led companies being undervalued on the stock market, according to new research

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NORTHUMBRIA UNIVERSITY

Photo-Left to Right Arina Skorochodova, Dr Mikhail Vasenin, and Dr Savva Shanaev. 

IMAGE: 

GROUP PHOTO-LEFT TO RIGHT ARINA SKOROCHODOVA, DR MIKHAIL VASENIN, AND DR SAVVA SHANAEV.

view more 

CREDIT: SIMON VEIT-WILSON



Academics from Northumbria University have uncovered an “extreme underappreciation” of firms with CEOs who are openly gay, lesbian, trans or bisexual – and they say it’s driven by discrimination.

According to the recently published study, ‘LGBT CEOs and stock returns: Diagnosing rainbow ceilings and cliffs’, conscious and unconscious biases against LGBT executives lead to stock market participants and investors failing to appreciate the financial performance and potential of LGBT-led firms.

As a result, such companies are reportedly substantially underestimated and undervalued on the stock market. This discrimination-driven effect, academics say, is leading to stocks of companies with LGBT leaders significantly outperforming the market by 0.69%-1.08% per month – a finding uncovered for the first time in the study.

Research lead Dr Savva Shanaev – Lecturer in Finance in the Accounting and Financial Management department of the university’s Newcastle Business School – describes this outperformance as a “hidden gem” of an investment opportunity, saying: “What’s powerful about this is that you could see an investment do well, and you can also do good at the same time.

“That’s the golden grail of socially responsible investing and it’s very rare to find.”

By highlighting this unexplored facet of the socially responsible investment industry, the academics hope to generate publicity and boost the market value of LGBT-led companies, meaning they may be able to attract funding more easily in the future. Dr Shanaev hopes any such ‘rainbow rush’ would ultimately bring about a levelling of the market and a positive step towards equality and better representation at a senior level.

Focusing on dozens of LGBT-led companies, Dr Shanaev and his colleagues – Northumbria University masters’ graduate Arina Skorochodova and lecturer Dr Mikhail Vasenin – documented ‘alphas’, a measure of risk-adjusted return that tells investors if an asset has performed better or worse than predicted.

In doing so, they found that the companies significantly outperformed the market, with those outperformances persisting even when adjusted for several factors. In the first study of its kind, the academics also found that portfolios formed from stocks with LGBT CEOs also robustly outperformed market indices.

“Once we’d discovered this,” explains Dr Shanaev, “we shifted our focus to look at why this was happening.

“We wanted to know, if this kind of opportunity exists, why has it not been exhausted yet? In finance research, this is one of the most important questions – is there really a free lunch here or is there some risk we haven’t accounted for that means it’s not the deal we thought it was?”

After carrying out robust eliminatory tests, the academics concluded that - in line with similar gender-based research – the consistent outperformance suggests “substantial” discrimination.

Generally, they suggestinvestors and stock market participants do not see LGBT CEOs as equal to others and consequently, underestimate and undervalue their performance. This contributes to a “rainbow ceiling” effect that impacts upon LGBT people in business and is analogous to the glass ceiling hypothesis illustrating similar discrimination against women.

Dr Shanaev believes more awareness of the undervaluing of LGBT-led stocks will eventually see the income-boosting effect of discrimination vanish as the market levels out.

“If there is a flow of capital to these stocks in light of this research,” he explains, “the values will increase and the discrimination effect will eventually vanish.

“But that’s no bad thing, because ultimately the objective is to prove to the market that companies led by the LGBT community are, in essence, no different to any other.”

The full paper is available to read in the journal Research in International Business and Finance.

 

 

Europe’s exascale supercomputer in its starting blocks


Business Announcement

FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM JUELICH

JUPITER 

IMAGE: 

JUPITER - EXASCALE IN EUROPE

view more 

CREDIT: FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM JÜLICH




Following last year’s selection of Forschungszentrum Jülich as the hosting entity, it has now also been decided who will supply JUPITER, Europe’s first exascale supercomputer: a bidding consortium by the German supercomputing and quantum computing company ParTec AG and Eviden, the advanced computing division of the French IT service provider Atos.

The “Joint Undertaking Pioneer for Innovative and Transformative Exascale Research,” or JUPITER for short, will be the first system in Europe capable of more than 1 exaflop/s. This number corresponds to one million times one million times one million – a “1” followed by 18 zeros – floating-point operations per second, which is the equivalent of the computing power of 10 million modern notebooks.

JUPITER is designed to tackle the most demanding simulations and compute-intensive AI applications in science and industry. Applications will include training large neural networks like language models in AI, simulations for developing functional materials, creating digital twins of the human heart or brain for medical purposes, validating quantum computers, and high-resolution simulations of our climate that encompass the entire Earth system.

The cost of the system and its operation for an expected six years amounts to 500 million euros. Half of JUPITER’s funding is provided by the European Union, and the other two quarters by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Ministry of Culture and Science of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (MKW-NRW), respectively.

Modular architecture for largest-scale simulations and AI workloads

JUPITER will be implementing the modular supercomputing architecture. The exascale-computer will consist of a highly scalable Booster Module and a tightly coupled general-purpose Cluster Module. The general-purpose cluster module will be based on SiPearl’s new Rhea processor made in Europe, a CPU with exceptionally high memory bandwidth for most complex workloads. The Booster Module will feature NVIDIA’s accelerated computing platform designed for next-generation data center technologies to deliver extreme-scale computing power for AI and simulation workloads, for example, to train generative AI like large language models. The components will be integrated by Eviden into their highly energy-efficient, direct liquid-cooled BullSequana XH3000 platform, and the cluster and booster modules are dynamically operated as a unified supercomputer using ParTec's modular ParaStation Modulo operating system.

ParTec, Eviden, SiPearl and NVIDIA are collaborating with the European scientific community on JUPITER to provide researchers with the state-of-the-art AI and HPC resources they need to drive the next wave of breakthroughs in areas from climate to quantum computing. The first exascale supercomputer in Europe will pioneer new avenues of research and scientific discovery not only in Europe, but all over the world.

The installation of the system will start in early 2024. Beginning with the construction of JUPITER, users will be able to prepare for and test the system as part of the JUPITER Early Access Program, enabling a close cooperation of all involved parties to fabricate and configure the best possible version of the system for the scientific community.

More details and specifics about the system will be announced in November at this year's SC23 conference.

Statements

This news marks a pivotal step forward in the realisation of our endeavour to bring exascale computing to Europe. With the combined expertise of our partners and the EuroHPC JU’s continued commitment to bolstering European computing power, JUPITER will revolutionise the European HPC landscape and reinforce European excellence in HPC. Not only will JUPITER break the exaflop barrier, but the system will also use the European HPC processor Rhea developed under the European Processor Initiative by SiPearl.

    Anders Dam Jensen, Executive Director of EuroHPC JU

 

The signing of the contract for the construction of JUPITER is another major milestone on the way of Europe entering the exascale era. JUPITER will be one of the leading supercomputers in the world and will therefore become a symbol of the strength of European scientific cooperation. It will enable scientists to achieve scientific breakthroughs in various domains like health, climate, energy, materials and AI. We are proud to host this research infrastructure in Germany.

    Prof. Dr. Sabine Döring, State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

 

The JUPITER exascale computer is a milestone for NRW as a research location. The fact that the first European supercomputer of this new performance class is being installed in NRW underlines our leading position in high performance computing. With its incredible computing power, JUPITER will help address the major societal challenges of our time. It will be particularly well suited for AI applications and further enhance Jülich´s focus on quantum computing in combination with the Jülich supercomputing architecture.

    Minister Ina Brandes, Ministry of Culture and Science of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia (MKW NRW)

 

With JUPITER, our Supercomputing Centre at Forschungszentrum Jülich will offer an instrument of unprecedented size and capabilities, the result of years of outstanding systems- and user-oriented research. In its dual role as a leading simulation and AI-engine, as required for training large foundation models, JUPITER promises breakthroughs in many areas where pressing challenges are at stake, such as materials science, sustainable energy systems, or earth system science.

    Prof. Astrid Lambrecht, Chair of the Board of Directors of Forschungszentrum Jülich

 

I am particularly proud that our specialists at Jülich, together with many European partners, succeeded in developing the new modular supercomputing concept as a genuine European technology, which is now the basis of JUPITER. Only thanks to the generous support of the European Commission since 2012 as well as EuroHPC JU and BMBF in the DEEP and SEA projects, such a development was possible in the first place.

    Prof. Thomas Lippert, Director of the JSC, Forschungszentrum Jülich

 

 

Computing time via established peer review procedures

The Jülich Supercomputing Centre will operate JUPITER as a member of the Gauss Centre for Supercomputing (GCS), an association of the three national high-performance computing centers in Germany, to which the three data centers of Forschungszentrum Jülich (JSC), the Bavarian Academy of Sciences (LRZ), and Stuttgart University (HLRS) belong. The computing time is allocated to national and European projects via established peer review procedures. GCS is supported by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the Ministry of Culture and Science of North Rhine-Westphalia, the Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts of the German State of Baden-Württemberg, and the Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts.

 

Diagnosing anthropogenic carbon emissions: a "CO2 checkup" of Earth's health



Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Low-cost UAV Coordinated Carbon Observation Network (LUCCN) 

IMAGE: 

A SWARM OF DRONES FOR COORDINATED OBSERVATION. 

view more 

CREDIT: DONGXU YANG




Since 2020, many countries have pledged their plans for "carbon peak and carbon neutrality". Managing anthropogenic emissions, especially from major industries, is crucial for addressing global warming and promoting sustainable growth. However, existing emission records lack transparency and accuracy due to limited knowledge of CO2 emissions from cities and key sectors, leading to uncertainty in the global carbon budget and hindering carbon asset management across industries.

 

To ensure precise carbon emission data, the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories' advocates using atmospheric measurements and inversion techniques for validating and improving emission inventories. Given the complexity of anthropogenic emissions, continuous high-quality monitoring of atmospheric CO2 concentrations is essential.

 

Recent research conducted by Dr. Dongxu Yang and his team from the Carbon Neutral Research Centre at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP, CAS), is shedding light on the critical issue of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their impact on the Earth's climate. They conducted a campaign in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, and Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, focusing on monitoring greenhouse gas emissions from urban and vital sectors.

 

During this campaign, they established the Low-cost UAV Coordinated Carbon Observation Network (LUCCN) equipped with medium-accurate greenhouse gas sensors for CO2 measurements. LUCCN combines ground-based and UAV-based in-situ measurement instruments, enhancing the detection and quantification capability of point source emissions in three dimensions. 

 

 

A swarm of drones for coordinated observation. (Photo taken by YANG Dongxu)

 

Dr. Yang said that existing and even near future satellite measurements cannot meet the frequent monitoring requirements for anthropogenic emissions due to cloud cover, aerosols, and revisit patterns. Therefore, the development of an adaptable observation network is crucial for accurate monitoring and data collection on greenhouse gas emissions.

 

Following data collection, conversion of CO2 concentration data into emission intensity is essential for validating emission inventories. The research utilized the UAV-measured data to calculate emission flux using a cross-sectional flux (CSF) method, resulting in a slightly overestimate than the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 inventory(ODIAC) due to data limitations associated with UAV in-situ measurements. ODIAC is a global high-resolution emission data product for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, originally developed under the Greenhouse gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) project at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan. This discrepancy underscores the current challenge of UAV-based measurements.

 

The study showcases LUCCN's requirements and accomplishments and provides insights for future quantitative research into anthropogenic emissions. Nonetheless, the UAV sampling strategy and emission estimation methods require further exploration. "We are now developing a measurement-fed-perception self-adaptation network strategy for the LUCCN system to improve monitoring efficiency, and atmospheric inversion will be applied to enhance emission estimates. These tasks are essential for monitoring anthropogenic emissions," said Dr. YANG Dongxu.

 

The initial findings of the campaign are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

 

Hot weather hits productivity – even in air-conditioned factories



Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER




Hot weather reduces workers’ productivity – even if their workplace is air conditioned, new research shows.

The study, led by the University of Exeter, tracked outdoor temperatures and worker productivity at a high-tech factory in China.

Despite climate-controlled conditions inside the factory, productivity dropped by 0.83% for every 1°C increase in outdoor temperature.

The research team found that night-time heat (which can affect sleep) caused some of the decline in productivity – but daytime heat affected productivity even after cool nights.

It is not clear why this happens, but the researchers say their findings are a “cautionary tale” as governments and businesses adapt to rising global temperatures.

“We usually think about climate change in terms of its impacts at huge scales, but it also affects individuals,” said Dr Jingnan Chen from the University of Exeter.

“Previous research has shown that – unsurprisingly – hot conditions reduce productivity when people work outdoors, or in buildings without air conditioning.

“Our findings – showing that heat affects workers even in a climate-controlled factory – provide further evidence of the likely economic impacts of climate change.”

Dr Miguel Fonseca added: “Policymakers and business leaders might assume that technology such a climate-controlled buildings can mitigate the effects of climate change.

“In our study, climate control on its own was not sufficient to insulate a firm from the effects of high outdoor temperatures.”

The study used data on the daily maximum “wet bulb” temperature – a measure that takes account of both heat and humidity.

Researchers combined this with individual-level data on the quantity and quality of work done in 35,190 worker-shifts (635 separate workers, all male).

The factory in the study makes silicon wafers, a key component of solar panels.

The delicate nature of the wafers means that, to ensure quality, all workshops have climate-control systems that keep them at a constant temperature of 25°C (77F) and relative humidity of 60%.

The 0.83% productivity dip for each 1°C of temperature rise meant a worker produced 22.6 to 33.4 fewer wafers.

The study also found that a wet-bulb temperature over 28°C was associated with 5.8% lower productivity compared to a typical day.

The paper, published in the journal Environmental and Resource Economics, is entitled: “How much will climate change reduce productivity in a high-technology supply chain? Evidence from silicon wafer manufacturing.”

 

Ancient technology turns plant-based cheese into 'something we want to eat'


In a new research result, University of Copenhagen scientists demonstrate the potential of fermentation for producing climate-friendly cheeses that people want to eat


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN - FACULTY OF SCIENCE

Pea protein based plant cheese 

IMAGE: 

AFTER ONLY EIGHT HOURS OF INCUBATION, THE RESULT WAS A FIRM "CHEESE-LIKE GEL" REMINISCENT OF A FRESH SOFT WHITE CHEESE. PHOTO: DEPARTMENT OF FOOD SCIENCE

view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO: DEPARTMENT OF FOOD SCIENCE




To produce plant-based cheeses that feel and taste like dairy cheese, scientists have their sights set on fermentation. In a new research result, University of Copenhagen scientists demonstrate the potential of fermentation for producing climate-friendly cheeses that people want to eat. 

Nearly thirty kilos of cheese are eaten by the average dairy-loving Dane every year. But increasing pressure on Earth's resources and climate change call for our food system to turn in a more plant-based direction. As a result, scientists are looking into how to transform protein-rich plants like peas and beans into a new generation of non-dairy cheeses that possess the similar sensory properties as the dairy-based ones that humans have enjoyed for thousands of years.

Several plant-based cheeses are already on the market. The challenge is that plant proteins behave differently than milk proteins when trying to make cheese from them. To meet this challenge, producers add starch or coconut oil to harden plant cheeses, as well as an array of flavourants to make them taste like cheese.

But it turns out that this can be done with the help of nature’s smallest creatures. In a new research result from the University of Copenhagen’s Department of Food Science, researcher Carmen Masiá has succeeded in developing plant-based cheeses made from yellow pea protein with a firm texture and improved aroma profile. She was able to do so by using the same natural fermentation process with bacteria that we have used with cheeses made from milk for thousands of years.

"Fermentation is an incredibly powerful tool to develop flavour and texture in plant-based cheeses. In this study, we show that bacteria can serve to develop firmness in non-dairy cheese in a very short period of time while reducing the bean-like aroma of yellow pea protein, which is used as the main and only protein source," explains Carmen Masiá. 

Fresh cheese after eight hours

The result builds upon a research result from last year by the same researcher, who found that yellow pea protein constituted a good "protein base" for making fermented plant-based cheese. In the new result, the researcher examined twenty four bacterial combinations made from bacterial cultures supplied by the biotech company Chr. Hansen, where Carmen Masiá is completing her Industrial PhD.

"The whole point of this study has been to combine the commercially-available bacterial cultures that are suitable for the fermentation of a plant-based raw material, and test them in a pea protein matrix to develop both taste and texture that would be suitable for a cheese-like product. And, even if some bacterial combinations performed better than others, all of them actually provided firm gels and reduced beaniness in the samples" says the researcher.

To study the behavior of the bacterial combinations, the scientist inoculated them in a protein base made of yellow pea protein. After only eight hours of incubation, the result was a firm "cheese-like gel" reminiscent of a fresh soft white cheese.

"All bacterial blends produced firm gels, which means that one can get a fermentation-induced gel without necessarily adding starch or coconut oil to the base. From an aroma perspective, we had two goals: To reduce the compounds that characterize the beaniness of yellow peas, and to produce compounds that are normally found in dairy cheese. Here we saw that some bacteria were better at producing certain volatile compounds than others, but that they all worked great to reduce beaniness – which is a very positive outcome. Furthermore, all blends acquired dairy aroma notes to different degrees" explains Carmen Masiá.

Taste and feeling is everything

The researcher points out there is still a way to go to before achieving this plant-based cheese, but that research is on the right track. According to her, tailored bacterial compositions and cultures must be developed in order to achieve the optimal cheese-like characteristics. Furthermore, the plant-based cheese might need to mature over time so that it develops flavor and character, just as dairy-based cheeses do.

Finally, the new generation of fermented plant-based cheeses must be judged by consumers, so that the flavour is perfected. All in all, this is to make plant-based cheeses so delicious that people seek them out and purchase them.

"The most challenging thing for now is that, while there are a lot of people who would like to eat plant-based cheese, they aren’t satisfied with how it tastes and feels in the mouth. In the end, this means that no matter how sustainable, nutritious, etc. a food product is, people aren't interested in buying it if it doesn't provide a good experience when consumed," says Carmen Masiá, who adds:

"One needs to remember that dairy cheese production has been studied over many years, so it's not something that we can just mimic overnight with totally different raw materials. Nevertheless, there are many scientists and companies out there doing great progress in the field; I hope that we will get closer to making non-dairy cheeses that taste good over the next few years. We are getting there."

The study was conducted in collaboration between the Department of Food Science and microbial ingredients supplier Chr. Hansen, a bioscience company that produces ingredients for the food and pharmaceutical industries, among other things. 

What is fermentation:

Fermentation is an ancient technique which originated in China. Today, it is used to make beer, wine, cheese, pharmaceuticals and much more. Fermented foods are preserved by initiating a fermentation process in which natural lactic acid bacteria and enzymes are formed. This is done as microorganisms convert sugars in the selected food into lactic acid, acetic acid and carbon dioxide. This makes food acidic and prevents the growth of putrefactive and pathogenic bacteria.

The first textual evidence of cabbage fermentation is found in China's oldest collection of poems, Shi Jing (Book of the Odes), which dates back to approximately 600 BC.

About the study:

  • The researchers tested twenty four different bacterial compositions on a protein base made from yellow pea protein.
  • The study shows that all of the bacterial compositions produce a firm cheese-like gel, reduced the beaniness, and produced dairy-related volatile compounds.
  • The study was conducted in collaboration between the Department of Food Science and microbial ingredients supplier Chr. Hansen, a bioscience company that manufactures microbial ingredients for the food and pharmaceutical industries.
  • The study has been published in the scientific journal Future Foods
  • The research is funded by Innovation Fund Denmark (grant 0153-00058B)

 

Study identifies jet-stream pattern that locks in extreme winter cold, wet spells


Big waves have doubled since 1950s, possibly due to shifting climate


Peer-Reviewed Publication

COLUMBIA CLIMATE SCHOOL

Big Waves 

IMAGE: 

AN IDEALIZED ILLUSTRATION OF GIANT MEANDERS IN THE GLOBAL JET STREAM KNOWN AS WAVE-4 PATTERNS, WHICH ARE BRINGING EXTREME WINTER COLD AND/OR PRECIPITATION (BLUE AREAS) TO PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE.

view more 

CREDIT: GRAPHIC BY KAI KORNHUBER.




Winter is coming—eventually. And while the earth is warming, a new study suggests that the atmosphere is being pushed around in ways that cause long bouts of extreme winter cold or wet in some regions.

The study’s authors say they have identified giant meanders in the global jet stream that bring polar air southward, locking in frigid or wet conditions concurrently over much of North America and Europe, often for weeks at a time. Such weather waves, they say, have doubled in frequency since the 1960s. In just the last few years, they have killed hundreds of people and paralyzed energy and transport systems.

The new paper appears this week in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

“Even though winters are getting milder on average, it’s happening at the expense of increasingly devastating heat extremes in the warm season,” said author Kai Kornhuber, an adjunct scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “A hundred years from now, we will probably not have to worry as much about extreme cold, because everything is getting warmer. But today and going forward, cold is still a very relevant hazard.”

The jet stream is a fast-moving river of air that continuously circles the Northern Hemisphere from east to west. It generally flows within relatively straight boundaries, segregating cold polar air masses from the midlatitudes, but at times it can naturally develop big wobbles. Some scientists think these wobbles are increasing in size and frequency due to rapid warming in the Arctic that is far out proportion to more southerly regions; this destabilizes the system, generating winds that break down the north-south barrier, they say. Given the right conditions, certain of these wobbles can become amplified into symmetrical waves that then lock in place across the globe, somewhat similar to the vibrations that produce a constant musical pitch. These are called Rossby waves.

In a 2019 study Kornhuber and colleagues showed that a repeating Rossby wave pattern known as a wave-7—that is, seven giant peaks and seven matching troughs spanning the globe—draws warm, dry air from the subtropics up to the midlatitudes, causing concurrent summer heat waves and droughts in predictable parts of North America, Europe and Asia. These can cause widespread, simultaneous crop losses in important breadbasket regions, the study said.

The newer paper shows more or less the other side of the coin. A winter pattern known as a wave-4—globally, four peaks and four matching troughs —tend to lock in place. The authors say that when this happens, the chances of extreme cold or wet in the trough triples. At the same time, abnormally warm or dry conditions may develop in the peaks.

The most recent major wave-4 iteration brought a February 2021 cold wave to much of Canada, the United States and even northern Mexico. Temperatures fell as much as 50 degrees F below average as far south as the U.S. Gulf Coast. Parts of the Deep South saw rare snowfall. Hardest hit: Texas, where record cold paralyzed natural gas pipelines and other energy infrastructure, knocking out much of the electricity grid and causing homes and businesses to go dark and freeze. All told, at least 278 people were killed directly or indirectly by the cold wave, and there was nearly $200 billion in damage. A similar though less destructive event caused a January-February 2019 cold snap in the eastern United States, killing more than 20 people.

The same pattern often hits on the other side of the Atlantic at the same time, usually most most extreme in southwestern Europe and Scandinavia. The January-February 2019 event brought extreme low temperatures to both southern France and Sweden. At the same time, by sweeping in moist air from the Atlantic, it caused extreme precipitation and flooding across many areas in central and eastern Europe. Similar events took place in Europe in 2013 and 2018.

The researchers say that 50 years ago, such concurrent waves took hold on average only once each winter. The numbers vary year to year, but now the average has risen to twice a year.

“This adds to the growing evidence that extreme weather over North America and Europe are often synchronized,” said the study’s other author, Gabriele Messori of Sweden’s Uppsala University. Messori published a paper earlier this year noting repeated example of this phenomenon, and hypothesizing a connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

Kornhuber said the exact mechanisms that cause the emergence of the wave-4 pattern require further research, but he suspects it starts with periodic changes in oceanic conditions over parts of the Pacific that, under the right circumstances, can trigger a global chain reaction. Pinning down that mechanism might allow scientists to better predict the cold or wet waves, he said.

Kornuber said that there is growing evidence of a connection between warming climate and the summer meanders that bring heat waves; however the winter waves are still a matter of intense scientific discourse. Scientists are currently investigating several possible mechanisms that could point to a climate connection, and how things might evolve in future.

Kornhuber noted that a study he coauthored earlier this year showed that climate models still struggle to reproduce the most extreme regional weather anomalies associated with these larger-scale patterns even in summer; this could lead to underestimations of potential weather-related crop losses in particular areas. He said upcoming work will focus on investigating whether the worst extreme are linked to human causes or just natural variability.

# # #