Shelling kills 3 Red Cross workers in E.Ukraine


By AFP
September 12, 2024




ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric condemned the attack - Copyright AFP Daniel ROLAND

A Russian strike on Red Cross vehicles in eastern Ukraine killed three people, the country’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday.

“Today, the occupier attacked the vehicles of the International Committee of the Red Cross humanitarian mission in Donetsk region,” Zelensky said.

The International Committee of the Red Cross confirmed that three of its staffers had been killed when shelling hit a site of a planned frontline aid distribution in the region.

It did not say who was behind the shelling.

“I condemn attacks on Red Cross personnel in the strongest terms,”

ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric said in a statement.

“It’s unconscionable that shelling would hit an aid distribution site,” he added.

“Our hearts are broken today as we mourn the loss of our colleagues and care for the injured,” she said.

“This tragedy unleashes a wave of grief all too familiar to those who have lost loved ones in armed conflict.”

The attack happened in the village of Virolyubivka, a dozen of kilometres away from the front line in Donetsk.

The ICRC said its team had been preparing to distribute wood and coal briquettes to vulnerable households to help them prepare for winter when their vehicles were hit.

Two other staff members were wounded in the attack, ICRC said, adding that the aid distribution “had not begun, and no residents were affected by the explosion”.

The ICRC did not provide any details about the staff members killed, but Ukrainian parliamentary commissioner for human rights Dmytro Lubinets said they were Ukrainian citizens.



– Vehicles ‘clearly marked’ –



There was no immediate comment from Russia, which routinely says it only hits military targets.

ICRC highlighted that its teams “are regularly present in the Donetsk region, and our vehicles are clearly marked with the Red Cross emblem”.

“The deaths of three ICRC colleagues come amid a sharp rise in the number of humanitarians killed around the world over the last two years,” it lamented.

The UN Humanitarian mission to Ukraine said 50 workers were killed or injured in Ukraine in 2023, including 11 killed in the line of duty.

“Since the beginning of the year, this repeated pattern of attacks appears to have intensified,” the UN humanitarian coordinator Denise Brown said in a statement in February.

The ICRC urgently called in Thursday’s statement “for the respect of international humanitarian law, including by taking every precaution possible to ensure that those engaged in humanitarian activities are not targeted or caught in hostilities”.

Thursday’s strike came just days before Spoljaric is due to carry out a long-planned visit to Moscow — her second visit since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, ICRC spokesman Jason Straziuso told AFP.

She is due to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other senior government officials on “critical issues in conflicts globally, such as the respect of international humanitarian law, prisoners of war, the fate of the missing, and protections for humanitarian workers,” he said.

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Vietnam farmers lose their blooms as floods claim crops

Hanoi (AFP) – Vietnamese farmer Do Hong Yen estimates she lost tens of thousands of dollars when her valuable peach blossom crop was swamped by muddy waters in Hanoi's worst flooding in two decades.


Issued on: 13/09/2024 

Floodwaters caused by Typhoon Yagi have destroyed crops across north Vietnam © Nhac NGUYEN / AFP

More than 250,000 hectares of crops, including rice, vegetables and fruit trees, have been destroyed across typhoon-hit northern Vietnam.

Some of the steepest losses in the north of Hanoi are among farmers growing peach blossom -- which can fetch up to $400 per tree ahead of Tet, Vietnam's lunar new year celebrations.

"I lost the entire season's crop," 53-year-old Yen told AFP from a patch of high ground overlooking Phu Thuong, an area home to many nurseries, gardens and farms.

"The loss may be more than $45,000," she said.

Three other peach blossom farmers said their losses would be similarly devastating after the floodwaters reached two metres (6.5 feet) earlier this week.

"This terrible typhoon and floods have cost human lives and more," Yen said.

The trees, whose flowers are a bright, beautiful pink when they blossom, thrive in relatively dry conditions and need only moderate watering.

The crop in Hanoi has been partially submerged for more than two days and even those trees expected to survive will not bloom this season.
Food prices soar

Typhoon Yagi made landfall along Vietnam's east coast on Saturday before sweeping through Hanoi and bringing a deluge of rain.

Floods caused by Typhoon Yagi have destroyed crops, including peach blossom trees, across north Vietnam © Nhac NGUYEN / AFP

The storm uprooted 25,000 trees across the city, while thousands of people from communities along the Red River that flows through the capital were evacuated as floodwaters rose.

The damage became clear as the water began to recede in many areas of Hanoi on Thursday.

"My 500-square metre garden full of banana trees has been completely destroyed because of the typhoon and the floods," said farmer Tran Thi Ly.

Ly told AFP that her vegetable garden, where she grew onions, lettuce and herbs for markets in central Hanoi, had been wiped out.

"It has been decades since we experienced this, losing everything we invested in," Ly said.

A total of 1.5 million chickens and ducks and 2,500 pigs, buffalo and cows were also killed in the floods, the agriculture ministry said.

"The price of vegetables has increased by 50 percent or even doubled. Even then, we don't have much to choose from because of a shortage in supply," office worker Nguyen Thanh Hoa said.

Hanoi's trade department said they had asked major suppliers to transport more vegetables from the south to fill the gap.

"We all have to suffer the consequences of this disaster," Hoa said.

© 2024 AFP

UKRAINIAN NATIONALIST THUGS

Toronto festival suspends screening of Russian war film over threats

The Toronto International Film Festival announced Thursday it is cancelling all screenings of the documentary Russians at War due to "significant threats" to public safety. Organizers cited reports of potential risks to festival operations. Directed by Anastasia Trofimova, the film follows a Russian battalion during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. TIFF described the decision as unprecedented.


Issued on: 13/09/2024 -

People pose in front of an illuminated sign at the Toronto Film Festival, Canada, September 8, 2023. © Geoff Robins, AFP

By: NEWS WIRES



The Toronto International Film Festival said Thursday it was cancelling all upcoming screenings of controversial documentary "Russians at War" after receiving "significant threats."

"We have been made aware of significant threats to festival operations and public safety," festival organizers said in a statement, pointing to reports it received "indicating potential activity in the coming days that pose significant risk."

"This is an unprecedented move for TIFF," read the statement.

Anastasia Trofimova first presented at the Venice Film Festival "Russians at War", in which she embedded with a Russian battalion as it advanced across eastern Ukraine after Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022.

It was to have its North American premiere in Toronto on Friday, followed by additional screenings on Saturday and Sunday.

Both in Venice and Toronto it has sparked outrage across Ukrainian cultural and political circles against what many consider a pro-Kremlin film that seeks to whitewash and justify Moscow's assault.

Canada's deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, earlier this week deplored its screening in Toronto, saying "there can be no moral equivalency in our understanding of this conflict."

Ukraine's state film agency also appealed to TIFF to drop the film, calling it "a dangerous tool for public opinion manipulation."

Trofimova has rejected the criticisms, telling AFP the Canada-France production is "an anti-war film" that shows "ordinary guys" who are fighting for Russia.

The soldiers depicted appear to have little idea of why they have been sent to the front, and are shown struggling to make Soviet-era weapons serviceable, with others chain-smoking cigarettes and downing shots of alcohol amid the deaths and wounds of their comrades.

Producer Sean Farnel said on X that the decision to cancel the screenings was "heartbreaking."

He blamed officials' public criticisms for having "incited the violent hate that has led to TIFF's painful decision to pause its presentation of 'Russians at War.'"

(AFP)

Sudan museums' precious antiquities looted in war

Port Sudan (Sudan) (AFP) – Sudan's priceless archaeological heritage is being stripped from museums, with looters loading statuettes and fragments of ancient palaces onto lorries, smuggling them out of the war-torn country, and selling them online.

Issued on: 13/09/2024 - 

The Sudan National Museum in the capital Khartoum, seen in 2020, has suffered looting during the war between the army and paramilitaries © ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP/File


More than a year of war between rival generals has killed tens of thousands of people, forced millions more to flee their homes, and left the country's prized antiquities at the mercy of pillagers.

On Thursday, UNESCO, the United Nations's cultural body, said the "threat to culture appears to have reached an unprecedented level, with reports of looting of museums, heritage and archaeological sites and private collections".

In the capital Khartoum, where fighting broke out in April 2023 between the army and paramilitary forces, the recently renovated Sudan National Museum has had prized artefacts stolen, archaeologists and officials say.

The museum houses prehistoric artefacts from the Palaeolithic era and items from the famed site of Kerma in northern Sudan, as well as Pharaonic and Nubian pieces.

Among the museum's collection are ancient Egyptian artefacts salvaged from the construction of the Aswan dam © ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP/File

First opened in 1971, the museum was founded in part to house objects rescued from an area due to be flooded by the construction of Egypt's massive Aswan dam.

Now, its artefacts are under threat from war.

"The Sudan National Museum has been the subject of major looting," said Ikhlas Abdel Latif, head of museums at the national antiquities authority.

"Archaeological objects stored there have been taken in big lorries and transferred to the west and to border areas, particularly near South Sudan," she told AFP.
'Refrain' from trade

The extent of the looting is hard to determine because the museum is located in an area controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Officials and experts have accused the RSF of looting the site. Contacted by AFP, a spokesman for the force did not comment.

In May, the RSF said it was being "vigilant" in "protecting and preserving the antiquities of the Sudanese people".

Throughout history, fighters have used plunder to fund their war efforts.

UNESCO said it was calling on "the public and the art market... in the region and worldwide to refrain" from trading in Sudanese items.

Some of Sudan's antiquities, looted from museums, have appeared for sale online © ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP/File

The agency also said it was planning training in the Egyptian capital Cairo for law enforcement and the judiciary from Sudan's neighbours.

"Because of the war, the museum and the artefacts are not being monitored," said Hassan Hussein, a researcher and former director of the national antiquities authority.

The army, led by Sudan's de facto ruler Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, is locked in conflict with the RSF, which is led by his former deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.
For sale

The Island of Meroe, a UNESCO World Heritage site that is home to the capital of the ancient Kingdom of Kush and dozens of its pyramids, is also under threat.

Artefacts and exhibition accessories have been stolen from the museum in Nyala, the South Darfur state capital, said Abdel Latif.

In Omdurman, just across the River Nile from Khartoum, part of the Khalifa House museum was also destroyed, she said.

Last week, the Association of Friends of Sudanese Museums condemned "in the strongest terms" the looting that is taking place across the country.

Parts of Khalifa House museum in Omdurman, the twin city of Sudan's capital, were destroyed in the fighting © ASHRAF SHAZLY / AFP

Experts voiced alarm after finding looted artefacts offered for sale online.

On the auction site eBay, a user offered items presented as Egyptian antiquities that, according to Sudanese media, were looted from Sudan.

AFP saw the listings, with items offered for a few hundred dollars, but was not able to independently verify the authenticity or origin of the items.

A Sudanese archaeologist, speaking anonymously for security reasons, told AFP that pottery, gold objects and paintings listed for sale appeared to have come from the National Museum in Khartoum -- although at least one statuette was an imitation.

He said he feared for the larger statues, which "must be handled by specialists in a precise manner" and could be damaged if looters were to lay hands on them.

The issue is set to be discussed at an upcoming conference in Germany, which Hussein will attend.

"The current state of the collections is a concern for anyone who cares about humanity's heritage," he said.

© 2024 AFP

India's top court frees jailed PM Modi opponent on bail

New Delhi (AFP) – A top political opponent of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was granted bail on Friday after months behind bars on accusations his party took kickbacks in exchange for liquor licences.


Issued on: 13/09/2024 - 

Arvind Kejriwal was first detained in March over the long-running corruption probe © Arun SANKAR / AFP

Arvind Kejriwal, chief minister of the capital Delhi and a key leader in an opposition alliance that battled Modi in national elections earlier this year, was first detained in March over the long-running corruption probe.

He is among several opposition leaders, with one of his colleagues describing his arrest at the time as a "political conspiracy" orchestrated by Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

A two-judge bench of the Supreme Court ruled that Kejriwal's arrest was lawful but that he should be released from custody while contesting the charges against him.

"Prolonged incarceration amounts to unjust deprivation of liberty," Supreme Court justice Surya Kant said in a verdict granting bail to Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal.

Kejriwal had earlier been freed by the same court for several weeks to allow him to campaign in this year's general election, but returned to custody once voting concluded.

His government was accused of corruption when it implemented a policy to liberalise the sale of liquor in the capital three years ago, surrendering a lucrative government stake in the sector.

The policy was withdrawn the following year, but the resulting probe into the alleged corrupt allocation of licences has since led to the jailing of two top Kejriwal allies.

Rallies in support of Kejriwal, who has consistently denied wrongdoing and refused to relinquish his post after his arrest, were held in numerous other big cities around India after he was taken into custody.

Kejriwal, 55, has been chief minister for nearly a decade and first came to office as a staunch anti-corruption crusader.

He had resisted multiple summons from the Enforcement Directorate, India's financial crimes agency, to be interrogated as part of the probe.
'Target political opponents'

Modi's political opponents and international rights groups have long sounded the alarm on India's shrinking democratic space.

US think tank Freedom House said this year that the BJP had "increasingly used government institutions to target political opponents".

Rahul Gandhi, the most prominent member of the opposition Congress party and scion of a dynasty that dominated Indian politics for decades, was convicted of criminal libel last year after a complaint by a member of Modi's party.

His two-year prison sentence saw him disqualified from parliament until the verdict was suspended by a higher court, and raised concerns over democratic norms in the world's most populous country.

Kejriwal and Gandhi are both members of an opposition alliance formed to compete against Modi and the BJP.

© 2024 AFP

Climate ambitions face headwinds as EU changes guard

Brussels (Belgium) (AFP) – What does the future hold for EU climate policies? Next week's unveiling of the new European Commission will be watched closely for clues -- at a time when defending the environment has skidded down the list of priorities in Brussels.


Issued on: 13/09/2024

Setting a roadmap for her second term, EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen pledged to 'stay the course' on the bloc's environmental goals © Nicolas TUCAT / AFP/File

It is a far cry from five years ago.

Back in 2019, EU-wide elections held in the wake of massive youth climate marches saw a surge of support for the Greens, who captured more than 70 seats in the European Parliament.

This June, by contrast, the Greens shed 20 seats in a vote marked by gains for the right and far right -- which have led the charge against what it calls "punitive" EU environmental policies.

For Luke Haywood of the European Environmental Bureau NGO federation, the writing is on the wall: he expects the shift in parliament may relegate the EU's climate ambitions to the backburner.

"There is a risk that there will be an attempt to ignore the long-term benefits that we all have of acting on climate now, focusing on short-term gains for certain industries," he told AFP.

Climate loomed large under the outgoing commission, which drove through an ambitious legislative "Green Deal" including flagship measures such as a ban on new combustion engine cars from 2035.

Setting a roadmap for her second term, Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen pledged to "stay the course" on the environment -- while promising to "reconcile climate protection with a prosperous economy."

But a key question is who in the next EU executive team inherits the task of making lofty goals a reality, with many of the Green Deal's laws still at various stages of implementation.

Advocacy groups are rooting for Spain's candidate Teresa Ribera -- a socialist climate campaigner tipped for a big commission role -- but her anti-nuclear stance has raised hackles among some member states.

How the various aspects of environmental policy -- from carbon-reduction to industrial policy or clean tech -- are divided up between commissioners will be a subject of particular scrutiny.

"Climate must be very present in the portfolios," said Haywood.

- 'Stitch by stitch' -

The EU has set a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, and one of the new commission's first tasks will be to negotiate with member states and parliament on its interim target for 2040 -- when it wants to see emissions cut by 90 percent compared to 1990 levels.

At the centre-right, the European People's Party -- the parliament's biggest group, to which von der Leyen belongs -- considers the target "extremely ambitious."

"We must discuss at length with all involved parties whether it is achievable and what we need to achieve it," EPP lawmaker Peter Liese warned when it was unveiled earlier this year.

Broadly speaking, right-wing parties oppose piling on more "bans" even as the public mood has soured on environmental action -- calling for an approach that factors in "the real situation on the ground," as Liese put it.

Within the centrist Renew group, the message is clear: "There can be no dismantling of the Green Deal," warned the group's leader in the EU parliament, Valerie Hayer.

"We'll be vigilant about any attempt to reverse it, and about the need to free up necessary investments," she told AFP.

But even the staunchest environmentalists realise the challenges that lie ahead -- as officials push to implement reams of complex legislation, under inevitable pressure from lobby groups.

"When they (the European Commission) say implementation, what they really mean is hitting pause, or backtracking," warned the hard-left leader Manon Aubry.

"They're going to be unpicking it stitch by stitch," she said -- pointing to the rollback of a string of environmental measures in the past year in concession to protesting farmers.

Aside from setting an emissions target for 2040, the incoming commission's environmental in-tray is thick with challenges.

A number of Green Deal laws -- such as the combustion-engine ban -- have revision clauses that could be seized on in a bid to water them down.

The bloc's sweeping farm subsidy system known as the Common Agricultural Policy is up for renegotiation for the period running from 2028 to 2034.

And the commission will need to implement a new law forcing companies to uphold environmental and human rights supply chain standards -- already diluted out of fear it would unfairly harm smaller businesses.

© 2024 AFP

Lakes drying up leave Greeks in despair

Thessaloniki (Greece) (AFP) – Lake Koronia, one of largest in Greece, is shrinking after a prolonged drought and a summer of record-breaking temperatures, leaving behind cracked earth, dead fish and a persistent stench.

Issued on: 13/09/2024 

Lunar landscape: The dried-up bed of Lake Koronia in northern Greece 

© Sakis MITROLIDIS / AFP


Where once fishermen pulled trout and tench into their boats, youths on motorbikes now joyride in the dust.

Locals say they can see the 42-square-kilometre (16-square-mile) expanse of water near Thessaloniki retreating day by day -- a fate shared by three other important natural lakes in Greece's Central Macedonian breadbasket.

"The stench from the lake is getting very bad. If we don't get enough snow and rain, the problem will get worse next year," said local community leader Kostas Hadzivoulgaridis.

"We need (officials) to take immediate action to protect the lake," the 50-year-old told AFP.

Totally dried up: Lake Pikrolimni, or 'Bitter Lake' in northern Greece has totally disappeared © Sakis MITROLIDIS / AFP

Water levels at three other natural lakes in the region -- Doirani, Volvi and Pikrolimni -- are also at their lowest in a decade, according to data last month from the Greek Biotope Wetland Centre.

Over the last two years, rainfall in the region has been "very low" and the temperatures recorded this year were the highest in the last decade, according to Irini Varsami, a local hydrologist.

As well as losing water directly through evaporation, the lake is being drained by the "increasing irrigation needs of (farmers in) the surrounding area", one of the important food-producing plains in the country.

- 'We hope for rain' -

Flamingos feed in the disappearing waters of Lake Koronia in northern Greece © Sakis MITROLIDIS / AFP

While the shores look like a lunar landscape bereft of life, flocks of migratory pink flamingos graze in the low water further in.

Anthi Vafiadou, a regional supervisor for the Greek state environmental protection agency, said it was "too early" to draw conclusions on the impact of the drought on the lake's biodiversity.

"We must see how the winter season evolves. We hope there will be more rain," she told AFP.

But what is certain, according to the Biotope Wetland Centre, is that climate change is putting huge pressure on the lakes.

According to the national observatory, Greece had the warmest winter and summer on record since reliable data collection began in 1960.

Greece's environment ministry this week unveiled a multi-billion-euro plan to boost the water supply and limit rampant water loss through poor management.

- 'Completely disappeared' -

A hotel, now abandoned, on the shore of dried-up Lake Pikrolimni in northern Greece © Sakis MITROLIDIS / AFP

Less than an hour's drive to the north is a bleak vision of what the future might hold.

Pikrolimni, or "Bitter Lake", is the only salt lake in mainland Greece.

But Pikrolimni is a lake in name only now. All that remains are the patterns formed by the water that evaporated during the prolonged drought.

Hotels and a mud spa around its edge lie abandoned.

"This is the first summer that the lake has been in such a state. There has been no rain, the water has completely disappeared and the lake has literally dried up," said Argyris Vergis, an 80-year-old local.

"This area used to be busy with tourists, but now you can see motorcyclists racing on the lake on the internet. It's tragic," the retired bank worker said.

© 2024 AFP

PATRIARCHAL RELIGION IS ABUSE

Malaysia widens probe into 'horror' care home child abuse

Kuala Lumpur (AFP) – Malaysian police expanded their probe Friday into a major Islamic business organisation with links to a banned sect, after hundreds of children were rescued from alleged abuse at care homes believed to be run by the group.


Issued on: 13/09/2024 -

Police rescued 400 children and teens from alleged abuse at care homes in Malaysia, in one of the worst such cases to hit the country 

© Mohd RASFAN / AFP

Investigators stormed 20 charity shelters across two Malaysian states on Wednesday, arresting 171 suspects including Islamic teachers and caregivers, and bringing to safety 400 children and teens.

In what is believed to be the worst such case to hit Malaysia in decades, police suspect the victims -- aged from one to 17 -- had been subjected to sexual and physical attacks.

They were also allegedly forced by the care home staff to abuse each other.

Investigators were "working towards" further raids and arrests as the probe on the organisation called Global Ikhwan Services and Business (GISB) continues, said police inspector-general Razarudin Husain at a press conference.

Investigations and health checks so far show that at least 13 minors had been sexually abused, said Razarudin.

The children, who are temporarily being housed in a police training centre in Kuala Lumpur among other locations, are still undergoing medical examinations, added the police chief.

Razarudin had said on Wednesday that children as young as five were burnt with hot spoons, while others who were ill were not allowed to seek treatment until their condition became critical.

"The caretakers also touched the children's bodies as if to carry out medical checks," he said.

GISB has denied the allegations and said they do not run the care homes.

"It is not our policy to do things that go against Islam, and the laws," the group said in a statement this week.

DNA samples

Global Ikhwan Services and Business (GISB) has long faced controversy over its links to the banned Al-Arqam sect 

© Mohd RASFAN / AFP

GISB has long been controversial for its links to the now-defunct Al-Arqam sect and has faced scrutiny by the religious authorities in the Muslim-majority country.

Al-Arqam was banned by the authorities in 1994 for deviant teachings, while members of the GISB had in 2011 set up an "Obedient Wives Club" that called on women to be "whores in bed" to stop their husbands from straying.

According to its website, GISB runs businesses from supermarkets to restaurants, and operates in several countries including Indonesia, France and the United Kingdom.

Police believe the minors in the care homes were all children of GISB members.

"We believe that all 402 children are fathered by GISB members. That's our suspicion at the moment," police inspector-general Razarudin Husain told AFP on Thursday.

"We feel that there's a need for DNA samples to be taken."

Islamic religious authorities in the Malaysian state of Selangor said this week they were closely monitoring GISB's activities.

"(We) remain vigilant about any facts leading to deviations from true Islamic teachings," they said.

The multi-ethnic country has a dual-track legal system with Muslims subject to sharia laws in certain areas.

The UN children's agency had underlined the "unimaginable horror" faced by the victims.

"These children have experienced unimaginable horrors and will need long-term professional medical and psychosocial support," said Robert Gass, the Malaysia representative for UNICEF.

The case has also rattled locals.

"This incident is very shocking and sudden," said 37-year-old resident Uzair Abdul Aziz.

© 2024 AFP

LOWER THAN OECD COUNTRIES

China to raise retirement age as demographic crisis looms

Beijing (AFP) – China said Friday it would gradually raise its statutory retirement age, as the country grapples with a looming demographic crisis and an older population.


Issued on: 13/09/2024 -

Hundreds of millions of people in China are set to enter old age in the coming decades while the birth rate dwindles dramatically © Adek BERRY / AFP/File

Hundreds of millions of people in China are set to enter old age in the coming decades while the birth rate dwindles dramatically.

The national population fell in 2023 for the second year in a row, with policymakers warning of potentially severe impacts on the economy, healthcare and social welfare systems if action is not taken.

"The statutory retirement age for male workers will be gradually extended from the original 60 years to 63 years," a decision by Beijing officials shared by Xinhua said.

For women workers the retirement age will be extended "from the original 50 or 55 years to 55 and 58 years, respectively", depending on the type of job.

The retirement age will begin to be gradually raised over 15 years from 2025, state media said.

"Starting 2030, the minimum year of basic pension contributions required to receive monthly benefits will be gradually raised from 15 years to 20 years at the pace of an increase of six months annually," Xinhua said.

The new rules will also allow Chinese people "to postpone retirement to an even later date if they reach an agreement with employers", it added.

China's retirement age had not been raised for decades.

'An inevitable choice'

Prior to Friday's announcement, state media had published articles touting the proposed retirement age.

"This reform will adapt to the objective situation of our country's widespread increase in life expectancy and years of education," an article in the People's Daily newspaper said this week.

It will also "raise the efficiency of the development and utilisation of human resources," the article in the Communist Party-run outlet said.

Mo Rong, director of the Chinese Academy of Labour and Social Security, told the People's Daily that raising the retirement age "is an inevitable choice for our country to adapt to the new normal of population development".

He added that the change "is conducive to stabilising the labour participation rate (and) maintaining the momentum and vitality of economic and social development".

© 2024 AFP

New election forecast model predicts Harris win

By Dr. Tim Sandle
DIGITAL JOURNAL
September 11, 2024

A new model updates US election forecasts. This is by drawing on daily data, driven by the odds market. The model comes from a Northwestern University data scientist. Using these data, the new forecasting model predicts how the Electoral College will vote

Similar models correctly predicted the 2020 presidential election and 2021 runoff elections for two Georgia senate seats.

The model updates the odds of a win by former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris each day. With this level of precision, the new media and other interested parties can see how single events — such as a debate, campaign activities or legal rulings — might affect the potential outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

According to Northwestern’s Thomas Miller, who developed the platform, the presidential debates will be critical and “Trump’s legal events also are critical. There have been massive changes in forecasted Electoral College votes in recent months associated with current events and campaign activities.”

Miller is the faculty director of the master’s in data science program at Northwestern’s School of Professional Studies. Viewers can follow his daily predictions and accompanying analysis on his site, The Virtual Tout.

Miller’s system uses data from PredictIt, prediction markets in which users bet real money on political races. Miller then uses pricing data as input to his forecast for how the Electoral College will vote.

Using his daily forecasts, Miller can gauge responses to singular news or campaign events. When Trump received a sentencing delay for his New York “hush money” conviction, for example, Harris’s campaign experienced a predicted drop of 68 forecasted electoral votes, according to Miller’s model

Miller’s system currently predicts the Harris-Walz ticket will win the November election with 289 electoral votes. Candidates need 270 votes to win the presidency.

Miller’s models proved considerable accuracy during the 2020 presidential election — only predicting one state (Georgia) incorrectly. Miller has updated the algorithm from this error, uncovering innate biases that led to a Democratic Electoral College vote prediction that was 12 votes lower than the actual Electoral College vote.

Miller’s 2020 model was still more accurate than Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. While FiveThirtyEight predicted 348 electoral votes for Biden-Harris, Miller predicted 294 electoral votes for the Democratic ticket. Ultimately, the Electoral College casted 306 votes for Biden-Harris.

Miller says popular election forecasting systems, including FiveThirtyEight and The Economist’s predictions project, are inherently flawed because they use data from opinion polls. According to Miller, these data are old, compared to fast-moving news cycles.

Miller also notes another key advantage of prediction markets over political polls: Large groups of investors who stay in the markets until Election Day. These groups grow larger as Election Day approaches. Miller relies on prediction markets that have tens of thousands of investors, with thousands of shares traded each day. Typical opinion polls involve between one and two thousand respondents, with new respondents recruited for each poll.