Axis Of Upheaval: New Era Of Confrontation – OpEd

 September 14, 2024 

By Eurasia Review and Zihadul Islam Sujon

‘For the powerful, crimes are those that others commit,’ Noam Chomsky once remarked, highlighting a key critique of U.S. global dominance. Now, the U.S. faces another confrontation with its rivals—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK)—a coalition that endangers the global order, as described in the research termed “Axis of Upheaval,” coined by Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a fellow and director at the Center for a New American Security.

As the Biden administration’s foreign policy has seen deviation, these four countries are teaming up against the U.S., challenging the global political system through anti-Western and anti-hegemony collaboration that significantly challenges international political norms. Thus, America faces a new type of challenge in dealing with these four autocratic states. In the two years since Russia’s invasion, the evidence of their convergence has mounted, making it impossible and even irresponsible to dismiss their alignment. Let’s explore the situation currently unfolding on the world stage.

First, Russia is engaged in a war that marks Putin’s point of no return in his effort to undermine NATO and the West—particularly the U.S.—pursuing a long-term confrontation. To better position Moscow for this conflict, Putin has effectively doubled down on relations with like-minded partners: China, Iran, and North Korea. This has made Russia the key catalyst of this emerging axis.In the current war, Moscow has deployed over 3,700 Iranian Shahed drones and is producing 330 of these drones monthly inside Russia.

Moreover, Russia and Iran share deep ties, which are expected to extend further in coming years. In 2022, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi proposed a 20-year cooperation agreement, which will be finalized soon. In exchange, Russia has provided Iran and Iranian proxies, such as Hezbollah, with more weapons, especially following the onset of the 2023 Israel-Hezbollah conflict. In 2024, this dynamic saw little change. Russia defended Hezbollah and Hamas, offering arms and ammunition to groups that share Iran’s political vision.

Next, China—a rising global power—has emerged as a new threat to the U.S. in global trade, military, and diplomatic affairs, which has raised concerns for the U.S. as China’s ambition is to surpass America’s sphere of dominance from Asia to Africa and Latin America.As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China wields significant influence, often using its position to neutralize U.S. and allied actions towards North Korea, Russia, and Iran. China has also solidified its relationship with these countries, dealing treaties with Iran and Russia and using megaphone diplomacy with the U.S.

Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, China became Russia’s new major oil and gas importer, effectively replacing Saudi Arabia. China exported $300 million worth of dual-use items—goods with both civilian and military applications—including microchips, jamming equipment, telecommunications gear, jet plane parts, sensors, and radar systems. These exports have helped sustain Russia’s war effort and offset the effects of Western sanctions.

Further along, Putin’s surprise visit to North Korea shocked global media, as he praised Kim Jong-un for “firmly supporting” Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Putin also promised to build trade and security systems with Pyongyang “that are not controlled by the West.” During the war, North Korea supplied roughly 2.5 million rounds of ammunition and ballistic missiles to Russia, with Russia vowing to send energy, food, and other essential goods to North Korea in return.

Diplomatically, Russia and China use their UN Security Council positions to shield Iran and North Korea from sanctions, strengthening their bond for greater aspirations. Diplomatic ties are also growing through platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS, which recently granted Iran membership.In reality, despite heavy sanctions imposed by the U.S., this axis has turned adversity into opportunity, forging stronger ties through security treaties and threatening the West by stoking conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, challenging global stability.

“Under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War,” warned CIA Director Bill Burns and MI6 Chief Richard Moore, as the axis continues to destabilize the world order. This statement also highlights the growing fear of the Axis of Upheaval.

Andrea Kendall-Taylor, the originator of the term “Axis of Upheaval,” suggested increasing defense funding to help Ukraine win the war as a way to destabilize this emerging alliance.

In response, Western nations, led by the U.S., have focused on countering the collective challenge posed by the axis. This has involved strengthening existing alliances, enhancing the Indo-Pacific strategy, and increasing the EU defense budget. Meanwhile, the Axis of Upheaval has coordinated countermeasures to bypass sanctions and undermine the global financial system by using its own currencies for trade.. 

This growing confrontation is likely to further increase global tensions, much like the widespread impacts of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, which have halted global trade in some regions.

In conclusion, smart power and diplomatic measures may ease this pressure, and the upcoming U.S. elections could also shift the dynamics. However, the true impact of this new era of confrontation remains to be seen.