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Sunday, October 25, 2026

 

‘Digital twin’ of the chest simulates application of light for treatment of pneumonia



A computational model predicts the path of light radiation within the body to tailor noninvasive therapies to each patient’s anatomy




Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

‘Digital twin’ of the chest simulates application of light for treatment of pneumonia

image: 

Light-based therapy applied to a lung intended for transplantation. The same type of light source can be used to treat pneumonia 

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Credit: Cristina Kurachi






Researchers at the University of São Paulo (USP) in Brazil and their international collaborators have created a computational model that can generate a “digital twin” of the human thorax. The goal is to personalize the treatment of respiratory diseases using a special type of light. Described in a paper published in PNAS, the journal of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the new technology uses CT scans to predict the path that light radiation will take inside the body. This makes it possible to calculate the exact dose needed to combat infections and inflammation directly in the lungs by simply illuminating the person from the outside.

Light-based therapies have been used to treat inflammation or infections in various organs. The two main approaches are photodynamic therapy, which uses light to activate a photosensitive substance that generates reactive species capable of destroying microorganisms in the presence of oxygen, and photobiomodulation, which uses low-intensity light to modulate cellular processes and inflammatory responses. However, in the case of the lungs, the use of these techniques presents a significant challenge. To reach the organ noninvasively, the externally applied light must pass through the skin, fat, muscles, bones, and other chest tissues, undergoing absorption and scattering along the way.

Thus, the same amount of light applied to two people’s chests can produce very different effects in their lungs. To address this issue, the authors combined computed tomography images, three-dimensional anatomical reconstructions, and computational simulations accelerated by high-performance computing. This process created a “digital twin” of each patient’s chest. This information makes it possible to estimate how much light will reach different regions of the lungs and which configuration would be most appropriate for each anatomy and pathological condition.

“Since our strategy uses external illumination, we need to know how much light reaches the lung and if the dose is sufficient to activate the drug in photodynamic therapy or induce the biological response in photobiomodulation,” says Cristina Kurachi, a professor at the São Carlos Institute of Physics at the University of São Paulo (IFSC-USP) who coordinated the study alongside Vanderlei Bagnato, also from IFSC-USP. Researchers from the Hospital das Clínicas of the USP Medical School (HC-FM-USP), Texas A&M University in the United States, and Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand also participated.

As Bagnato points out, the lung is a particularly difficult target for light-based therapies. One alternative would be to deliver light to the organ via bronchoscopy, which uses a thin tube with a camera (a bronchoscope) that is inserted through the nose or mouth. However, the procedure is invasive and may worsen the patient’s condition.

“External illumination is much simpler. However, in addition to the absorption and scattering that light radiation undergoes on its way to the organ, the lung itself isn’t a homogeneous medium. Air, lung tissue, blood vessels, and regions altered by inflammation or collapse have different optical properties. Focal pneumonia [concentrated in a specific region], diffuse pneumonia [in various regions of both lungs], and COVID-19, for example, alter the distribution and density of lung tissues in distinct ways,” Bagnato explains.

This complexity makes the idea of applying the same light intensity to all patients, for the same duration and in the same position, inappropriate in principle.

“Our solution was to use patient images, incorporating the anatomy of the tissues and their varying thicknesses, to create a ‘digital twin.’ In it, we included the optical properties of the tissues – that is, how much light is absorbed and how much is scattered – to try to predict the amount that actually reaches the lung and thus result in individualized dosimetry and a more effective therapeutic response,” Kurachi explains.

The first step involves converting the images obtained by computed tomography into a three-dimensional model of the patient. The tomography volumes are segmented, meaning the computer identifies and separates the various anatomical structures. In the study, 12 types of tissue and structures were represented: skin, subcutaneous fat, muscles, bones, heart, liver, stomach, kidneys, and in the lungs, normally ventilated tissue, collapsed regions, infiltrates, and blood vessels.

This anatomy is divided into small volumetric elements called voxels, which are the three-dimensional equivalents of pixels in a digital image. In the model used, each voxel measured 0.1 centimeter on each side. The result is a detailed computational representation of the thoracic cavity. Then, each tissue is assigned optical parameters, specifically the coefficients of light absorption and scattering at different wavelengths.

“With all this data incorporated into the model, Monte Carlo simulation comes into play. Rather than attempting to find a single analytical solution for light propagation in extremely heterogeneous anatomy, the simulation calculates the fate of millions of photons as they travel, scatter, or are absorbed by different tissues,” Bagnato explains.

Monte Carlo simulation is a computational method that uses repeated random sampling to obtain numerical solutions to complex problems involving many variables and probabilistic behaviors.

“Based on the collective behavior of the photons, the system constructs three-dimensional maps of the distribution of light and the energy absorbed within the body. In the study, the platform was fed CT scans of people with various pulmonary conditions. The group included four individuals from HC-FM-USP: one control subject without lung disease and three patients with predominantly focal bacterial pneumonia, diffuse bacterial pneumonia, and viral pneumonia caused by COVID-19, respectively. Two other volunteers participated in optical measurements used for the experimental validation of the model. The CT images were used to construct the ‘digital twin,’ and light distribution measurements were obtained from the volunteers, which allowed us to assess the model’s performance,” Kurachi explains.

The reconstructions clearly showed the extent to which disease alters the organ. In the healthy patient used as a reference, approximately 91% of the organ was normal tissue capable of filling with air to facilitate respiration. However, in the patient with focal pneumonia, the healthy area decreased to 58.9%. In the case of diffuse pneumonia, the healthy area was even smaller, at just 54.1%. The patient with COVID-19 showed a significant loss of lung function, retaining only about 69.9%. This lost functional space was eventually taken up by inflammation, collapsed areas that can no longer facilitate gas exchange, and an increase in blood vessels. These major physical changes make the organ denser and alter its interaction with light.

The position of the light source makes a difference

Initially, different wavelengths and four configurations for positioning the light sources around the chest were evaluated. One result stood out: light at 808 nanometers, which is in the near-infrared spectrum and is therefore invisible to the human eye, showed the highest energy deposition in the lungs across all configurations tested.

The position of the light sources was also crucial. A configuration that illuminated the lateral and dorsal regions of the chest provided the most uniform distribution and highest energy deposition in the lungs. In contrast, frontal illumination alone performed poorly, mainly due to attenuation caused by the ribs and, in the anterior region of the chest, by breast adipose tissue.

“If the patient has early-stage pneumonia localized to one region of the lung, why illuminate the entire lung or both lungs? If the pneumonia is severe and diffuse, the situation is different. Based on the characteristics of the light source, the patient, and the disease itself, we determine which panels need to be turned on and how the illumination should be configured. We no longer simply illuminate without knowing the exact outcome. Instead, we tailor the planning to each individual case,” Kurachi emphasizes.

Of the simulations evaluated, the multi-angular configuration tested at 808 nanometers produced the most uniform and efficient distribution. This configuration involves positioning light sources around the patient to illuminate the chest from multiple directions simultaneously, combining the front, back, and sides of the body.

The differences observed in the simulations were not solely due to each patient’s anatomy. The disease itself alters the structure of the lungs, consequently altering the way tissues interact with light and the amount of light energy they absorb. The portion of light energy absorbed by the tissue is referred to by the researchers as “energy deposition.”

In the simulations, regions of collapsed lungs – where the alveoli lose air and the tissue becomes denser – exhibited the highest energy deposition proportionally, ranging from 3% to 4.5%. In normally ventilated lung parenchyma, the region composed of millions of alveoli where gas exchange occurs, this value was around 1% to 2%. Regions infiltrated by inflammation showed intermediate values. This occurs because changes in tissue density and composition alter light absorption and scattering properties. “From the perspective of treatment using photonic techniques, this behavior is positive since we want the greatest deposition and absorption of energy precisely in the regions where the disease is established while preserving normal lung tissue,” Kurachi notes.

These differences produced characteristic patterns for each clinical condition. In focal pneumonia, the greatest energy deposition was concentrated in the affected areas, forming well-defined zones that were distinct from healthy tissue. In diffuse pneumonia, energy was distributed more homogeneously across extensive regions of the lung. In cases of COVID-19, a bilateral and peripheral pattern emerged, corresponding to the distribution of opacities observed on CT scans.

“This study aims precisely to prevent patient radiation therapy planning from being done ‘in the dark,’ that is, placing radiation in a certain location without knowing how much will actually reach the target. The goal is to tailor the treatment plan based on the patient’s characteristics and the specific disease,” Kurachi summarizes.

How much light actually reaches the lungs?

Calculations showed that only a small fraction of the light applied to the skin reaches the lungs. Using 808-nanometer infrared light with an irradiance of 100 milliwatts per square centimeter (mW/cm²) on the skin yielded the best results. The average irradiance in a healthy lung was only 0.0234 mW/cm². In diseased lungs, the irradiance was even lower: 0.0166 mW/cm² in focal pneumonia, 0.0120 mW/cm² in diffuse pneumonia, and 0.0113 mW/cm² in patients with COVID-19. These conditions require long illumination times in a clinical setting, but intervals ranging from 40 to 80 minutes are sufficient to deliver the necessary energy for photobiomodulation and photodynamic therapy.

This is because much of the light is absorbed or scattered by the tissues it encounters along the way. The amount that reaches the lungs varies from person to person, as well as between different regions of the organ itself. This variation depends on factors such as the thickness of the chest wall, the geometry of the lungs, and changes caused by the disease.

“This is precisely where the digital twin can make a difference. We can use everything we’re able to observe in the patient to plan what we can’t observe directly. The goal is to get as close as possible to the required light distribution and make the treatment more precise,” Bagnato emphasizes.

The researchers have a precise plan for a future application. First, a high-resolution CT scan or MRI would produce a three-dimensional image of the patient’s anatomy. Healthy and diseased regions would then be identified. Next, the model would be assigned the optical properties corresponding to the different tissues.

Then, computer simulations would calculate how light propagates inside the chest in question. Before performing the actual procedure, the physician could virtually test different wavelengths, intensities, and source positions to choose the most appropriate configuration. Thus, the “digital twin” would function as a computational testing ground for the treatment.

However, it should be noted that the model is not yet ready for clinical use. The optical properties attributed to the different tissues were primarily obtained from the literature and do not account for all individual variations. Additionally, while the simulation results align with experimental measurements, further validation of the amount of light reaching the interior of the lungs is necessary.

Progress toward clinical application has already begun, though. “We’re conducting an in vivo study on sheep in the United States. Sheep develop pneumonia similar to that seen in humans, including cases caused by the same bacterium. This is a preparatory step toward moving on to human subjects,” Bagnato explains.

The next steps include further experimental and clinical validations, as well as real-time measurement of the light dose in the future. The goal is to develop personalized treatments that determine how much light to apply to the skin and how much should reach the intended region of the lung.

However, for Bagnato, technological sophistication must go hand in hand with another concern. “We’re scientists committed to the relevance of our research. We want to solve problems, but we also operate with social responsibility. We don’t want to create technology that’s too expensive, can’t be integrated into the Unified Health System [SUS], or used widely. A good treatment must be accessible to the population. The economic reality must be taken into account in what we're developing,” he says.

The study was funded by FAPESP through the Optics and Photonics Research Center (CEPOF) and the Thematic Project “Advanced Photonic Technologies for the Life Sciences”, both of which are coordinated by Bagnato.

About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.

Friday, October 23, 2026

   

EU and Canada draw closer in Trump’s unpredictable world – with Britain looking on

From left, From left, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham, French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Copyright AP Photo/Toby Melville


By Luca Bertuzzi
Published on


The EU and Canada are hoping to deepen ties at their upcoming Montreal summit, in areas like trade, energy, defence and critical minerals. Meanwhile, the UK is seeking its own reset with Brussels.

The European Union has offered Canada something it has never offered another country: associate membership. Quite what that means remains unclear, but Brussels and Ottawa are determined to turn their shared values and increasingly close relationship into a new kind of partnership in a world shaken by Donald Trump's unpredictable foreign policy.

The experiment is being watched closely in London, where Prime Minister Andy Burnham is seeking to rebuild Britain's post-Brexit relationship with the EU, raising the question of whether a similar arrangement might eventually be available to the UK.

The offer, made by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last month, has raised questions about whether associate membership is a meaningful new status, an honorary title or something in between.

At a summit in Montreal next week, the two sides will begin putting substance behind the idea, seeking closer cooperation on trade, defence, technology and energy without Canada formally joining the bloc.

But while Canada is searching for a new framework, Britain is attempting to improve an existing one, with EU and UK leaders set to meet next month to seek a much-needed reset in their relationship.

"This is a moment to act with clarity and ambition. By aligning more closely - economically, technologically, and strategically - Canada and the EU are building an Alliance for the Future based on trust and shared values," reads the latest draft of the EU-Canada joint statement, discussed by ambassadors on Wednesday.

A blank sheet

Since European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada last month to become the EU’s first “associate member,” Brussels and Ottawa have been exploring what this privileged partnership could look like.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney prefers to talk about an “Alliance for the Future.” He has sidestepped questions on whether he is comfortable with the “associate membership” label, stressing that substance matters more.

The summit in Montreal on 29-30 October is the first real chance to define the partnership in more detail. The latest draft uses “associate membership” interchangeably with “Alliance for the Future.”

Crucially, the proposal envisages giving Canada a more regular place at the EU's table, with participation in summits, ministerial meetings and technical discussions.

It calls for "early consultations on major policy and regulatory initiatives, with Canada’s participation in these processes as an associate member of the Union."

Whether the term survives in the final text is an open question. In any case, “the full scope of this associate membership will be defined by the 2027 Canada-EU Summit,” the conclusions read.

From trade to defence

The document nonetheless tries to put more meat on the bone. It builds on the 2016 Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), which 10 EU countries have yet to ratify, to remove remaining trade barriers and ensure reciprocal market access.

“We will ensure mutually favourable treatment in our respective economic security measures, based on the principle of reciprocity in industrial sectors where both sides have agreed to align their external measures to ensure the same outcome,” the draft statement reads.

On energy, the conclusions open the door to “the development of liquefied natural gas exchanges,” notably through a joint long-term feasibility study on LNG exports to Europe.

On technology, Canada will join the EU’s supercomputer initiative, a new digital partnership will tackle issues like AI and digital identity, and an agreement to facilitate cross-border data flows is in the making.

Critical raw materials, one of Canada’s key assets for the EU, are also on the table. The two sides have agreed that the European Investment Bank will play a role in critical mineral projects, from extraction and processing to manufacturing and recycling.

In defence, Canada is already part of several EU projects, including the Permanent Structured Cooperation and the Capability Coalition, and both sides intend to deepen that cooperation on maritime security, crisis management and industrial cooperation.

The partners also envisage a cooperation framework to safeguard the information space and protect electoral integrity, with an early warning mechanism and a dialogue dedicated to foreign interference.

Other areas under discussion include border security cooperation with EU agency Frontex, criminal justice, climate security, transport and the Arctic.

Taken together, the proposals suggest a partnership extending far beyond conventional trade agreements, even if its institutional form remains uncertain.

Searching for a reset

The EU's growing closeness to Canada comes as Britain searches for a new relationship with the bloc, a decade after the Brexit referendum.

The contrast is striking. While Ottawa is being offered an undefined but potentially far-reaching new status, London is still negotiating improvements to its relationship with Brussels, largely one sector at a time.

The next EU-UK summit, postponed from the summer following Keir Starmer's resignation and Burnham's arrival in Downing Street, offers an opportunity to make progress.

While the UK government was already searching for amending ties with the bloc, Canada's approach to the EU definitively shattered one of the Brexiteers' key hopes to turn the so-called Anglosphere into a free trade area encompassing the UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

"It is hardly surprising that Brexit has not delivered on that promise, and UK opinion polls have slowly started to shift in favour of rejoining," Charles Tannock, a former Conservative MEP who campaigned for Remain, told Euronews.

Since becoming Prime Minister, Burnham has repeatedly signalled that he wants to take the UK closer to the EU. He considers the status quo “not good enough” and has vowed to consider options ranging from following Canada’s example to re-entering the bloc.

While Burnham has restarted the domestic debate about rejoining the EU, the post-Brexit relationship between Brussels and London has not always been easy, with some UK officials asking why "associate membership" should not also be available for them.

“In an ideal world, with the UK we have even closer ties to the extent that the UK is a European country and if it wishes so, the ambition should not be an associate membership, but full membership,” Tobias Cremer (Germany/S&D), a leading lawmaker on EU-Canada relations, told Euronews.

Moving forward

Speaking during a European Parliament debate on Wednesday, Bernd Lange, the German Socialist who chairs the Trade Committee, welcomed a “new mood” in EU-UK relations.

He suggested that Britain could pursue an arrangement resembling Switzerland's relationship with the bloc, alongside closer political and security cooperation and a customs union.

But Brussels rejected the Swiss model as a template for Britain during the Brexit negotiations.

Switzerland's complex network of bilateral agreements has long frustrated EU officials, who argue that such arrangements are difficult to oversee and enforce, particularly when they provide access to parts of the single market without all the accompanying obligations.

Instead, British and EU negotiators are focusing on specific agreements covering agricultural trade, emissions trading and youth mobility.

A recent Franco-German proposal to include the UK in the 'Made in Europe' rules removed one sore point, but London is hoping to extend it to other sectors where it sees EU industrial policy becoming increasingly protectionist.

In defence, the EU needs the UK as part of a broader European security architecture, but the two sides failed to agree to include Britain in the planned Security Action for Europe (SAFE) for defence procurement.

Brussels offered Canada much better terms for SAFE, with a token upfront payment of around €10m. It asked the UK for a whopping €6.5bn, with no guarantee its industry would win any contracts, leading to a breakdown in the negotiations.

“Burnham is on a learning curve, to be honest," Tannock said. "He needs to. He’s been the mayor of Manchester for some years. He hasn’t been focused on this issue. He will be trying to get fully up to speed with what’s available."

Peggy Corlin contributed to the reporting.




EU-Canada 'love story' needs more than warm words, senior MEP warns

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, Sept 17, 2026.
Copyright AP Photo

By Peggy Corlin
Published on

European Parliament’s point man on Canada, Tobias Cremer, told Euronews that the planned “associate membership” should include an institutional framework formalising closer ties between the EU and Canada.

The EU must turn its offer of “associate membership” to Canada into a meaningful partnership that goes well beyond trade, Tobias Cremer, the European Parliament's standing rapporteur on Canada, told Euronews.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen invited Canada to become the EU's first “associate member” in September, but gave little indication of what the unprecedented status would mean in practice.

The offer comes as geopolitical upheaval draws Brussels and Ottawa closer together. Canada is embroiled in a trade war with its traditional US ally, while the EU is struggling to keep Washington on its side over Ukraine.

The two sides are due to meet at a summit in Montreal at the end of next week, with agreements expected in several areas, including critical raw materials and digital cooperation.

“For the last couple of months, we've been great, Canada and Europe, at writing each other love letters and saying how much we really want to work together,” said Cremer, a German socialist MEP. “But I think now is really the time to start to get serious and turn that love story into concrete commitments.”

He added that “associate membership” must mean the “closest possible partnership that the EU can offer to a non-European country and since Canada is probably the most European of non-European countries that should be very close.”

Beyond trade deals

Cremer insisted that the relationship must amount to more than “a trade deal ‘plus’”.

“There must be a new quality to the relation.”

He called for a “pragmatic approach,” involving sectoral agreements covering trade, defence, digital cooperation, the Arctic and students, but also going further.

“We should go a step further and start embedding all of these great initiatives into something more enduring, into a common institutional framework of coordination and cooperation.”

Cremer suggested that Canada could participate “as an observer” in the Council of the EU, where national ministers meet, and called for the creation of a formal parliamentary partnership assembly.

Such a body could follow the model of the existing EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly, which brings together 35 members from each side twice a year for sessions that can focus on specific policy areas.

Regarding the UK, however, the MEP described it as a European country for which, “if it wishes so,” the ambition “should not be associate membership, but full membership.”

His comments came as UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham recently floated the idea of rejoining the EU, with polls showing that a majority of Britons want to return to the bloc.

But Cremer also argued for closer cooperation not only with the UK and Canada, but also with countries such as Australia and South Korea.

“I think it is of our interest to bring all of these actors together and say 'hold on, actually the majority of the world wants to play 21st century politics which is focused on collective security, on shared interests, on mutual respect rather than might is right.'”



Turkey, Canada unveil new “strategic partnership” as Carney visits Ankara

Turkey, Canada unveil new “strategic partnership” as Carney visits Ankara
Erdogan, right, was reported as telling Carney: "We had diplomatic relations, but we had some kind of disconnect for a very long time now. And today we put an end to it." / Turkish presidencyFacebook
By bne IntelliNews October 22, 2026

Defence, transportation and energy will be at the heart of a new “strategic partnership” between Canada and Turkey, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on October 22, while on an official visit to Ankara.

Carney is eager to build ties with countries around the world, given that he is locked in an escalating and bruising trade war with US President Donald Trump that means he is in a hurry to reduce Canadian dependence on neighbouring America.

Carney and Erdogan signed the partnership declaration between the two middle powers together and announced the start of negotiations on a free trade agreement.

“We have taken a historic step toward the future of our relations,” Erdogan said after the signing ceremony, as quoted by the Associated Press (AP). “Elevating our relations to the level of a strategic partnership will not remain merely on paper; it will not be a merely symbolic step,” he added.

“No country, whatever it’s blessed with, no country builds strength alone,” Carney said. “The most resilient countries bring together complementary strengths, with trusted partners.”

Carney will visit Istanbul on October 23 for talks with Turkish business groups.

Erdogan said Turkey and Canada are hopeful of building up their annual bilateral trade from around $3bn to $5bn initially, and then to $10bn.

In investment, there is some prospect that Ottawa and Ankara will study the feasibility of a bid by Canada's Candu nuclear team to build Turkey's planned second or third nuclear power plant.

In 2024, Canada ended an export ban on the sale of weapons to Turkey. It was imposed in a response to military incursions into Syria conducted by Turkey, as well as to show Canada’s opposition to the provision by Ankara of backing for Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia. Some military drone equipment provided to the Azerbaijanis by Turkey was, to Ottawa's displeasure, partly made with Canadian parts.

“Allies must be able to rely on each other for equipment and capabilities that keep us safe,” Carney was further reported as saying by the AP.

“Today’s new agreement on defence industry partnership will connect Canadian and Turkish companies to work together, creating good jobs at home, export opportunities abroad, greater security for our citizens and contributing to a stronger Nato alliance,” he added.

CBC reported Erdogan as saying that a new chapter in relations between Turkey and Canada was opening, stating: "We had diplomatic relations, but we had some kind of disconnect for a very long time now. And today we put an end to it. Now comes a new period, a new era for Turkey and Canada. This is what we're starting today."

The fact that Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian under Erdogan, its leader of 23 years, has not gone unnoticed in Canada and there is considerable disquiet in the country at the upgrading in relations with Ankara.

"This is morally a difficult dilemma on the Canadian side, but the calculus appears on the part of the government that if Canada were to choose to diversify only with democracies the ceiling for success would be low," Thomas Juneau of the University of Ottawa, an expert on the Middle East, was quoted as saying by CBC.

 

RAGOZIN: Expelled from Latvia after investigating the far right

RAGOZIN: Expelled from Latvia after investigating the far right
IntelliNews columnist Leonid Ragozin has been expelled from Latvia, his home for the last 12 years. / IntelliNewsFacebook
By Leonid Ragozin October 21, 2026

Last week I received a notification about my expulsion from Latvia, my only home where I lived for the last twelve years and the land of my ethnic Latvian ancestors. It referred to an earlier decision by the foreign ministry to declare me persona non grata which has never been officially announced.

Tweeting on the occasion, Latvia’s new populist Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs falsely claimed that I was justifying the Russian aggression in Ukraine. But he did by subtweeting my statement on the expulsion which contained the following line: “I condemn the Russian aggression and support Ukraine’s sovereignty over occupied territories”. This line alone could earn me a prison sentence if I were in President Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

This highlights the absurdity of what I see as my political persecution in Latvia. It doesn’t matter for my persecutors what my real views are and where I stand on Ukraine. They are levying this sadistic punishment on me, I believe, primarily as a long-brewing revenge for an investigation into the links of the current interior minister’s far-right party with Kyiv-based Russian neo-Nazis who propagated white terrorism of Norwegian mass shooter Anders Breivik variety. 

They also appear to have been using me as a soft target in their own political machinations during the election period at the time when xenophobia and paranoid witch-hunt for “Kremlin’s agents”, often imaginary ones as in my case, is one of the best-selling products on the Baltic political market.

No charges, no right to appeal

The notification letter regarding my deportation contained no reference to any statements or actions that could have prompted this decision. But it explicitly states that the decision didn’t warrant hearing out my explanations about any of my perceived transgressions. If I were given a chance to explain myself, I’d learn what I am being punished for. That’s what the Latvian authorities are clearly trying to avoid, perhaps because it would immediately expose the flimsiness and lawlessness of the charges.

Apart from being denied any knowledge about the causes of this punishment, I am also being explicitly denied justice, Designed for diplomats enjoying immunity from prosecution, not for ordinary people, persona non grata status cannot be appealed in court. 

In the run-up to these events, senior Latvian MEP Rihards Kols gave a simple and honest explanation as to why this tool should be applied to me. Arguing on X (Twitter) with Foreign Minister Baiba Braže (who insisted that my expulsion should be handled by the interior ministry), he said: 

“You know perfectly well why the interior ministry path doesn't work: the [security] services don't establish a direct threat, the revocation would be appealed, the state would lose in court. That's exactly why the legislator has provided for the option to include a person on the undesirable list by the foreign ministry – a political, non-appealable decision.”

Kols is no random person in the story.  He is a foreign policy bigwig at the Nacionālā Apvienība (National Alliance) party, which has been campaigning for my deportation for seven years.

A sojourn with Russian Nazis

The story begins in 2019 when I co-authored an investigation exposing a link between Nacionālā Apvienība and Russian neo-Nazis who found a new home in Kyiv after Maidan revolution. They saw post-Maidan Ukraine as a more “racially pure” alternative to Putin’s Russia and described Putin as a heir of “Judeo-Bolshevik regime” that populated Russia with millions of migrants from predominantly Muslim Central Asian states. 

In March that year, their online platform Wotanjugend, still flourishing in Ukraine, circulated the 80-page Russian translation of the manifesto published by white terrorist Brenton Tarrant before he killed 51 people in two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand. They also distributed manifestos of other white terrorists. They continue, up until now, to glorify the members of BORN - a Russian neo-Nazi gang, with links in Putin’s administration and security services, which murdered antifa activists and migrants, as well as famous Russian lawyer Stanislav Markelov and his Ukrainian friend, journalist Anastasia Baburova.

I met with these Russians in Kyiv, including with one directly linked to BORN, and wrote a story about them in 2016. My Latvian investigation emerged as a by-product three years later. As I kept following Wotanjugend people on social networks, I noticed that a group of Nacionālā Apvienība members engaged with them in Kyiv. 

The Latvian nationalists attended a festival of NSBM (national-socialist black metal) organised in Kyiv by Russian neo-Nazi Aleksey Lyovkin, currently a key RVC figure, and Azov movement ideologist Olena Semeniaka. The festival was accompanied with a conference called Pact of Steel, after the Hitler-Mussolini pact. One of the Latvians, Agris Purviņš, presented a lecture at the conference.

The story, published by the Latvian investigative outlet Re:Baltika and co-authored by its editor, Sanita Jemberga, resulted in Nacionālā Apvienība’s secretary-general Raivis Zeltīts leaving the post and the party. He went on to create a party called Austošā Saule (Rising Sun), the name likely inspired by Greece’s neo-Nazi Golden Dawn with whom he liaised. Despite numerous complaints by the far right, the Latvian media watchdog found that our article adhered to the best journalistic standards. 

As soon as the story was published, I became exposed to an incessant campaign of smear and intimidation by the Latvian far right whose support in society is very limited but who - due to their aggressive toxicity - have a disproportionately outsized influence on the country’s policies. An MP for Nacionālā Apvienība, Jānis Iesalnieks, posted what I interpreted as a death threat on Twitter - a picture of a grave accompanied with a comment that Re:Baltika has chosen to walk along the fir-tree path (referring to the tradition of pathing routes of funeral processions with fir tree branches).

In the next few years, I participated in the investigation into the assassination of journalist Pavel Sheremet, conducted by the Ukrainian media outlet Zaborona, drawing the ire of Ukrainian secret services whose agents were charged as suspects by Ukrainian police detectives. I also became the target of Western war industry lobbyists through my frantic and idealistic attempts to prevent an all-out conflict by chronicling and contextualising the events of 2019-22 that led to Putin’s brutal invasion. I deem the latter a criminal and unforgivable act, in case you wonder.

In 2021, the Ukrainian infowar collective Informnapalm posted a smear piece about me in eleven European languages (the idea is to deplatform and defund me across Europe). The Latvian version was published on the website of Zēltits’ new party. Apart from ridiculous insinuations about my political position and biography, its original version contained the doxxed home address of my elderly mother in Moscow. This version was circulated to million-strong audiences by prominent infowar personalities and senior officials, such as former Estonian president Toomas Henryk Ilves. 

At that point, I got swamped by an avalanche of death and anal rape threats posted by government-connected pro-Ukrainian and far right infowar groups. It was daily, unspeakable and sadistic horror. 

In April 2022, the then Latvian defence minister Artis Pabriks published an official letter falsely accusing me of being an agent of Kremlin’s influence and demanding my deportation from Latvia after my rather innocent interview with the Latvian public broadcaster LSM. This happened in the context of the election campaign in Latvia. Pabriks led, along with Ilves’s wife, the candidate list of a party which lost miserably and was knocked out of the parliament. There were no consequences for me at the time.

Electoral machinations

The events of 2026 also unfolded in the election context. In the last week before the election, held in October, I became a subject of the campaign. This happened on the initiative of two ministers from the parties which fared badly in opinion polls and at least one of then was on the verge of being knocked out - the far right Nacionālā Apvienība and the centrist Jaunā Vienotība (New Unity). 

Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava (NA) and Foreign Minister Baiba Braže (JV) took to arguing on X on the subject of which of them should be responsible for deporting me from Latvia. For a few crucial days before the vote, they kept pointing fingers at each other because they were visibly afraid of taking political responsibility for what clearly smacked of Putin-style political persecution.

That exchange produced the only instance when a Latvian official listed my perceived misdemeanours which he thought were sufficient to kick me out of my home. Dombrava claimed that I “blamed the West for Russia's aggressive actions”; “spoke about the ineffectiveness of sanctions, labelling them as ones that provoke Russia”; “sought to justify Russia's aggressive foreign policy”,  “discredited Ukraine, its political leadership, and its armed forces”.

Apart from criticising the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions (obvious to all of my sources in Russia), each of these accusations is a piece of slanderous falsehood. But more importantly, what Dombrava is listing are thought crimes that might be punishable in an Orwellian totalitarian society, not in a democratic state confined by the rule of law. The bit about discrediting the Ukrainian armed forces is particularly amusing, given how it mirrors the draconian Russian laws on discrediting the Russian army which threaten me with a lengthy prison sentence if I ever return to Russia - for nearly all of my publications in recent years. 

The politicians involved in the spat pointed out that “competent bodies”, a Soviet-era expression standing for secret services, didn’t see any grounds for declaring me a threat to Latvia’s national security. It is worth noting that I was screened by the Latvian security service, VDD, every year for nine years in a row until I received the status of EU permanent resident in 2024 and there has never been an attempt by VDD to caution me or warn me about any articles or statements.

At that point, Braže refused to succumb to the pressure from NA members. But when the votes were counted, it turned out that both parties had managed to enter the parliament, having suffered considerable losses. Braže’s Jaunā Vienotība came last, receiving 19% fewer votes than in the previous election. But having turned into parliamentary dwarves, the two parties emerged as potential kingmakers in the new coalition, led by the winner - Apvienotais saraksts, the party of the populist Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs. 

My sources suggest that coalition-shaping manoeuvres may have prompted Braže to make a drastic decision and announce on X on October 7 that her ministry had begun the procedure of declaring an unnamed Russian citizen persona non grata. She said the decision was prompted by “new information from competent bodies”. Simultaneously, Latvian officials began anonymously informing Latvian and international journalists that the person in question was me.

Six days later, I received an official notification from the department of migration (PMLP) stating that I was being expelled on the grounds of the foreign minister’s decision to declare me persona non grata.

Character assassination 

Because the Latvian government has made every effort to conceal from me the official reasons for the expulsion, I am left wondering what may have prompted Braže’s change of tack and this inhumane, sadistic punishment levied on a person who had already fled a cruel tyrannical regime in his country of citizenship. Or what new information the “competent bodies” may have obtained.

The only clues I am getting is from the industrial smear campaign, which accompanied the story at the time when the ministers took to discussing my deportation in public. 

The campaign was led by the far right Polish channel Visegrad24 which has been accused multiple times of spreading fake news, including by yours truly. Infowar personalities, like Michael Weiss and Oz Katerji, also joined in, distorting my statements and spreading outright disinfo. Katerji claimed that I travelled back to Russia after March 2022. That’s a blatant lie.

The main accusations focused on my interview with Canadian journalist Aaron Mate. Two elements of the interview have been cherrypicked to build a case against me. To put things in perspective before I address these elements, AI-powered analysis of the interview reveals 17 instances in which I make statements that fall under the Russian draconian laws on discrediting the armed forces, five of them with “high risk” of imprisonment, should I ever step on the Russian soil again. But my persecutors couldn’t care less about that.

The first episode pertains to a statement in which I tried to explain the Kremlin’s line of thinking in the conflict. I said that Putin’s regime sees Russia as the underdog that’s always compelled to strike first. This is what I believe the Kremlin thinks, not what Leonid Ragozin thinks. However this line was mendaciously used by Infowar personalities to accuse me of justifying Russia aggression. 

Here is the direct quote: “The way it works is, I guess the main thing to start with is that Russia, or at least the Kremlin and Putin's regime, they don't believe they're fighting with Ukraine. They're fighting with the West. So by definition, they consider themselves as underdogs in this battle.” 

The key word here is “they” and I carry on:  “But because they always consider themselves as the underdogs and as the side that is being under constant pressure from the West, encroaching on its former sphere of influence, on its strategic interests, it compels them to respond… with brutal force.” (The quote is shortened for clarity).

What I got wrong

The second bit, I admit, is more problematic and I regret that I explained myself awkwardly, failing to express my genuine position on a sensitive issue. Russia, I said, “as a general rule” and “with many exceptions” tries to avoid killing civilians. 

Direct quote: “Whether it's because the Russian regime is more brutal by definition, or whether it's because Russia has a greater capacity, there was obviously more brutality on the Russian side. But as you said, as a general rule, they went for military and industrial targets and they tried to avoid killing civilians or they tried to avoid striking civilian targets. There were many exceptions from this.”

On “civilian targets”, it’s just a slip of tongue which contradicts what I said just a few minutes earlier as I was justifying Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian airports (as “Kremlin agents” routinely do, you know): “But then, of course, Russia attacks loads of civilian targets. So Ukraine has the right to do so, obviously”. 

The problem is with what I said about civilians. What I tried to convey there was that we are not yet at the stage of escalation in which Russia has begun conducting mass and deliberate destruction of high-rise apartment blocks in cities in which the vast majority of Ukrainians live, in Kyiv, Odesa and other main population centres away from the frontline. But I did mention in the interview that apartment blocks do often get hit - either directly by the Russians or as a result of the work of Ukrainian air defences (and god forbid I should blame the Ukrainians for defending themselves).

Then I point out what most observers of this conflict know well - that the ratio of civilian to military casualties in this conflict is disproportionately low compared to pretty much any other conflict in recent history: “The number of civilian casualties compared with the number of military casualties was quite low for all sorts of reasons, but one of the reasons is that I don't think there is a deliberate policy by Russia to target civilians, which may change. And there is also a way in which the Russians do target civilians, turn their lives into a nightmare by destroying critical energy and heat and water supply infrastructure. In that sense, even though they don't kill many civilians, they make their lives quite terrible." Of course my haters only used the first sentence in this chunk of the interview and forgot the second. 

But I deeply regret these insensitive words because I failed to mention the systematic killing of civilians by Russian drone operators in frontline cities like Kherson, as well as mass and deliberate destruction of high-rise buildings during the storming operations in Donbas. It am sorry for hurting the feelings of those affected by these brutal actions by the Russian military, directly or indirectly. 

Of course I mentioned and condemned these attacks on many previous occasions as my tweets and article can attest. “Horrible video and self-evident war crime by Russian drone operators”, I wrote on August 4 over President Volodymyr Zelensky’s tweet about a human safari incident in Kherson.

So I wonder how would you answer this question: Is evicting me from the only real home that I ever had in my life for this slip is an adequate punishment for what was clearly was a non-deliberate mistake? 

If Latvia’s security service ever allowed me to express myself on the issue, I would have happily done so. But the fact that I was explicitly refused to provide one and that no real accusations have been brought against me, makes me think that my mistake in Aaron Mate’s interview has nothing to do with the real reasons for my political persecution. 

The true reason perhaps is my investigation into Latvia’s main far-right party as well as my criticism of the way the way the West has been handling this conflict and its motives within it, which I stand by. 

More than anything, I am hated for instances where I point to the erosion of democracy and rule of law in Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe, falsely justified by the necessities of war. I get maximum bashing when I call it what I think it is: Putinisation. 

Too harsh? Well, my persecution in Latvia appears to prove me right.