BLACK SWAN COVID-19

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A “black swan” is the term of art for something that is highly improbable, even unimaginable. ... And the facile willingness to see crises as black swans has provided policymakers cover for failing to act in the face of clear and present dangers from climate change to health care to economic insecurity.

No, the coronavirus pandemic wasn't an 'unforseen problem' - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com › outlook › 2020/03/17 › no-coronavirus-...

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Black Swan Definition - Investopedia

https://www.investopedia.com › Investing › Markets

Mar 11, 2020 - Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by ...

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What does coronavirus 'Black Swan' mean for markets?

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Is the COVID-19 Outbreak a Black Swan or the New Normal?

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Black swan theory - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Black_swan_theory

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often ...

‎Background · ‎Coping with · ‎Epistemological approach · ‎See also

Black Swans Started The Selloff, Now Economic Gravity Will ...

https://www.forbes.com › sites › michaelcannivet › 2020/03/11 › black-sw...

6 days ago - Nicholas Nassim Taleb wrote a book on this subject titled, The Black Swan. ... Pandemics have always been a potential ‘black swan’ risk to markets. ... With COVID-19 causing an unprecedented disruption in global travel, the energy industry faces its biggest demand shock since the financial ...

Is coronavirus really a black swan event? - The Week

https://theweek.com › articles › coronavirus-really-black-swan-event

Mar 8, 2020 - Both the long economic expansion and 2020 presidential race seem ... Politico reports, "Trump faces 'black swan' threat to the economy and ...

Black Swan Definition from Financial Times Lexicon

markets.ft.com › research › Lexicon › Term › term=black-swan

A black swan in markets is an event that has not occurred in the past, thus rendering useless risk management models based on historic data. Such a risk model ...

Black Swan Event - Guide to Unpredictable Catastrophic Events

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com › Resources › Knowledge › Finance

A black swan event, a phrase commonly used in the world of finance, is an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict. In other ...

What does coronavirus 'Black Swan' mean for markets?

https://euobserver.com › opinion

2 hours ago - ... and raised concerns that the economy is moving towards a sharp slowdown. The Black Swan of the coronavirus infection epidemic launched ..

Roubini warns on 'severe' coronavirus recession, says everyone needs $1K payment


Famed economist Nouriel Roubini predicted that a recession from the worldwide coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak will be “more severe” than the global financial crisis, but fiscal pump-priming is critical to mitigating the impact.

With governments around the world resorting to extreme measures to keep citizens indoors and away from large gatherings, many on Wall Street are now expecting a global recession. Known as “Dr. Doom” for his gloomy economic predictions, Roubini added to those voices by telling Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that markets have reasons to be downbeat.

“For now, there is not much to be optimistic [about], and what we can hope is if there’s going to be the right stimulus — and it has to be something of at least 3% of GDP — this is going to be a very severe, but short recession,” Roubini told “On The Move” in an interview.

In order to counteract the widening effects of social distancing, President Donald Trump and his top advisors are currently debating a massive stimulus — including cutting every American a check.

Roubini agreed, suggesting that Congress give $1,000 to “every single U.S. resident” before it’s too late.

“It doesn’t matter if you’re young, old, employed, unemployed, student, formerly employed, partially employed, hourly worker, contractor, gig, or small business,” the New York University economist said.

“Everybody needs at $1,000 or otherwise we’ll end up in the Great Depression at this point.”
Reality will bite soon

Retail and manufacturing data this week offered investors a small hint of the ugliness the pandemic has in store for the economy — and neither figure was pretty.

With that in mind, Roubini expects the recession will start during the current quarter, as the pandemic spurs mass closures of businesses and lost wages for many hourly and service sector workers. He forecasted a contraction in economic growth through the second quarter, and “most likely” in Q3.

“But if we have the monetary easing we have right now, if we control the pandemics by doing systematic quarantines, maybe by June-July the pandemic is stopped, and maybe by the fourth quarter of this year we are going to have an economic recovery,” he said.

The economist added that the U.S. needs “fiscal stimulus,” since the Federal Reserve has done “everything under the sun.” Within the space of a week, the Fed has cut rates to zero, and thrown trillions at the market in an effort to backstop financial institutions, non-bank corporations and lending markets overall.

Yet Roubini pointed out that what the economy actually needs is fiscal stimulus to backstop falling private demand — especially as exports, consumption, residential investment, and capital expenditures collapse.

https://news.yahoo.com/roubini-on-recession-from-coronavirus-185012035.html

THOSE WHO OPPOSE MEDICARE FOR ALL AS TOO COSTLY  ARE THOSE WHO APPROVED THE WAR IN IRAQ WITH NO BUDGET OR FUNDING REQUIREMENTS OR LIMITS COSTING AMERICANS TRILLIONS IN DEBT FINANCING.
THE WAR WAS SO CORRUPT THAT THE USA LOST BILLIONS TO THE LIKES OF HALLIBURTON IN CONTRACTING OUT COST OVERRUNS ACCORDING TO THE INSPECTOR GENERAL 

Trump’s $46B coronavirus aid request includes $8B for DoD  

Joe Gould, Defense News•March 17, 2020

WASHINGTON ― The White House submitted an emergency funding request to Congress late Tuesday for an added $45.8 billion, with $8.3 billion in it for the Defense Department―all to address the coronavirus pandemic.

The request is separate from the Trump administration’s $1 trillion stimulus proposal, which it presented the same day on Capitol Hill.

“With the pandemic growing, resource needs have also grown. The unprecedented mobilization the Administration has achieved has forced agencies to incur unanticipated costs,” White House acting budget director Russell Vought said in a letter attached to the 118-page request.

“These costs must be met with a legislative response to ensure full operational capacity. The aim of this request is to maintain that capacity and ensure that resource needs created by the pandemic response are met.”

Congressional chairmen hope COVID-19 won’t derail defense policy bill

For DoD, the funds would be to, “mitigate the risk of COVID-19 to United States service members, their dependents, and DOD civilians; minimize the impacts of the virus on strategic mission readiness; and support national response efforts.

“The request includes resources to facilitate changes in servicemember personnel policy; expedite access to rapid COVID-19 diagnostics; ensure access to medical care, including additional medical countermeasures; address the impacts of the pandemic on logistics and supply chains, including pharmaceuticals and personal protective equipment; and bolster the overall national response.”

The president is also requesting a variety of new authorities across the federal government, including the provision of transfer authority from the Defense Emergency Response Fund to other currently available DoD accounts.

On the heels of an $8.3 billion aid package Congress approved last week ― primarily for the Department of Health and Human Services ― the sizes of the spending packages signal the broad scope of what the Trump administration believes it will need to grapple with the pandemic.

WHAT WAS PROJECTED FOR 2023 HAS ALREADY BEEN MET IN 2020

'Try getting it yourselves': Trump told governors they're responsible for getting their own medical equipment to treat coronavirus patients
HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE PEOPLE

President Donald Trump told a group of governors on Monday that they should get vital equipment to treat coronavirus patients on their own.

© Alex Brandon/AP Photo

"Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment - try getting it yourselves," Trump told the governors during a phone call, The New York Times reported. "We will be backing you, but try getting it yourselves. Points of sales, much better, much more direct if you can get it yourself."

The Times reported that Trump's directive took some of the governors by surprise given that states are already working overtime to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus and are hoping for more federal aid.

Hospitals across the country are overwhelmed as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to skyrocket.

The Washington Post reported that health care workers are building triage tents outside emergency rooms, squeezing extra beds into break rooms and physical therapy gyms, and calling for delays in elective surgeries - or cancelling them altogether - as they grapple with the rapidly spreading disease.

At least 3,823 people in 49 US states plus Washington, DC, and three territories have tested positive for the virus, and at least 67 patients have died. New York alone reported 950 cases as of Monday morning.

The Times reported that Trump used most of his conference call with governors to paint a rosy picture of the disease, which contradicts everything scientists and public health experts have said.

"We're going to get it remedied and hopefully very quickly," the president said. "We broke down a system that was broken, very badly broken," he added, and said his administration would create a new system "that I think is going to be the talk of the world."

Trump's comments are at odds with his own earlier statements, during which he claimed the US was well equipped to handle the virus, that it was "totally under control," and that it had been "contained."

The World Health Organization classified the novel coronavirus as a pandemic on Wednesday. To date, the disease has infected nearly 175,000 people around the world and killed more than 6,700.

The Trump administration has been widely criticized for what critics say is tepid response to a rapidly spreading pandemic. Trump declared a national emergency on Friday after weeks of downplaying the risks of the public health crisis.

The move will trigger the Stafford Act and open up access to $50 billion in federal money to be allocated to states and municipalities.

Cities and states across the country have also implemented strict restrictions and shut down public places in the absence of federal guidance.

New York - which is a hotspot for the outbreak in the US - Los Angeles, Massachusetts, Ohio, and others have begun lockdown procedures. New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey jointly moved to ban gatherings of more than 50 people.

On Monday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo called for the Army Corps of Engineers to deploy to the state and build more hospital beds.

"This is a disaster waiting to happen," Cuomo said on "Good Morning America."

"There has been no country that has handled this without a national response," he added.
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