Despite threatening to end Russian LNG imports completely next year, prompting the Kremlin to threaten to cut off gas exports to Europe before then, the EU just imported the most LNG in history as it slides into an expanding gas crisis.
The EU is caught in a contradictory bind between the need to power industry and the politics of trying to crush the Russian economy. Since the end of cheap Russian gas, the increasingly dysfunctional European economy has been deindustrialising due after long-term average energy prices doubled.
A bad situation has been made worse as it goes into the summer restocking season with record low gas storage levels. And then there was the removal of Qatari LNG exports from the market on top of that. Europe is scrambling to get gas anyway it can just as the European Commission (EC) is equally determined to “increase the pressure” on Russia’s economy to force an end to the Ukraine war. The two goals are at loggerheads as disunity in the EU grows as policy increasing clashes with the economic realities.
Ironically the new record import figures comes just as the first of the sliding sanctions on the proposed complete ban on imports of Russian gas by January 1 come into effect.
Sanctions preventing short-term import contracts for Russian liquefied natural gas came into force on April 25. In the run up, European utilities were completing the largest monthly purchase of Russian LNG ever recorded before that source of gas is cut off.
The EU imported approximately 2.45 to 2.46bn cubic metres of Russian LNG in March 2026 — a 20% increase on February and a 38 to 40% increase y/y, according to data compiled by advocacy group Urgewald based on Kpler ship-tracking. European energy traders snapped up every single cargo exported by Russia’s Arctic Yamal LNG plant managed by Russian private firm Novatek. European terminals fully unloaded 25 cargoes in March alone.
The story was the same in February. That month also set a new record that was just broken a month later. In February, 100% of all Yamal LNG exports went to the EU — 21 of 21 cargoes, totalling 1,543,347 tonnes. It was the first February since Yamal began operations in 2017 in which every single cargo was delivered to a European port. Zero shipments went to China or Asia, compared with four Asia-bound cargoes in February 2025.
January was barely different. In January 2026, 92.6% of Yamal cargoes — 23 of 25 tankers — were delivered to EU ports.
Europe remains addicted to Russian gas despite the tough man rhetoric coming out of Brussels. March was not an anomaly but the norm. Europe has a sustained structural dependence that no amount of “stand with Ukraine” grandstanding can undo. Across the first quarter 2026, the EU imported 69 of the 71 cargoes that Yamal LNG shipped globally — 97% of the project's total production — paying an estimated €2.88bn for the privilege, equivalent to approximately €32mn per day flowing into Moscow's accounts. China, which Russia has spent two years positioning as its alternative LNG customer, received only two cargoes in January and none at all in February or March.
Why the market overwhelmed the policy
The immediate trigger for the March surge is not hard to identify. The TTF benchmark for European gas prices jumped from around €35 per megawatt hour in January and February to €52.87 in March — an increase of more than 51% — as the Hormuz closure rippled through global energy markets.
QatarEnergy declared force majeure on production after Iranian strikes damaged Ras Laffan LNG plant facilities. The US, which had been growing as Europe's LNG supplier of choice, saw its export reach constrained by the same disruptions.
With the US now the only unfettered supplier of global LNG it has become the swing supplier. However, as the US sells its LNG FOB (free on board) and not under long-term contracts, Europe is now in direct competition for supplies of US gas and getting outbid by Asia which is even more heavily dependent on gas than Europe is. Several LNG tankers bound for Europe this month have already been diverted to Asian customers that were willing to pay more. Russia remains one of the few reliable sources of LNG for European customers.
But that might change as the Kremlin eyes LNG supplies as a new source of pressure on Brussels. Russian President Vladimir Putin turned the tables on Europe in March, threatening to ban LNG exports to Europe sooner than the EU intended to ban the imports at the end of this year to stoke the mushrooming economic crisis in Europe by making the unfolding energy shock worse.
Utilities and traders were already stockpiling Russian LNG ahead of the April 25 ban on spot contracts — a precautionary impulse that the Hormuz closure converted into an urgent one. Utilities and traders likely rushed to secure Yamal LNG volumes before legal access became restricted, with March representing a total bill of €1.33bn for European purchases of Russian LNG.
A second threat is the new twentieth sanctions package passed last week, that will also restrict EU imports of Russian gas by targeting Russian shadow fleet tankers.
Of the 14 Arc7 ice-class vessels serving Yamal LNG, 11 are operated by Seapeak of the UK and Dynagas (NASDAQ: DYNS) of Greece. Without the European-operated fleet, Yamal LNG operations would halt almost entirely during the winter months, RBC-Ukraine reports.
European port infrastructure, European maritime services, European insurance and European long-term contracts — some running to the 2040s — form the operational backbone of Russia's Arctic gas export capacity. "Europe is not simply a buyer. It is the logistical backbone of the project," Urgewald concluded.
Russia meanwhile posted record Yamal production in March — 3.3mn tonnes, up 13% y/y — adding a new Arc7 ice-class carrier to keep Arctic routes flowing despite Western sanctions on the vessels. Each shipment from the Arctic port of Sabetta to Europe takes an average of 8.3 days, enabling rapid turnaround for Yamal's fleet. With each vessel delivering a cargo roughly every 22 days, the project relies heavily on quick access to European terminals to maintain output during winter months when ice conditions limit operations.
France: the EU's biggest Russian gas customer
French President Emmanuel Macron has been a stalwart supporter of Ukraine and one of the most aggressively anti-Russia opponents, yet France remains the biggest buyer of Russian gas, accounting for 41.7% of EU imports.
In 2025, 87 tankers delivered 6.3mn tonnes of Russian gas to the French ports of Dunkirk and Montoir. France's intake exceeded Belgium's Zeebrugge — itself the single largest individual terminal — which received 58 ships carrying 4.2mn tonnes. Zeebrugge alone imported more Russian LNG from Yamal than China's entire country over the same period.
France’s TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) owns 20% of Yamal LNG and purchases 4mn tonnes annually — more than any other single buyer in the world. The same TotalEnergies whose chief executive Patrick Pouyanne was announcing new exploration deals in Lebanon's Block 8 in January was simultaneously purchasing more Russian Arctic gas than any other company on earth.
Macron leads a country whose energy giant is Russia's single largest LNG customer – a fact he has turned a blind eye to. Macron has described remaining Russian LNG imports as "very marginal," stating he saw no need for accelerated action to phase them out.
Urgewald calculated that at €32mn per day, EU payments for Yamal Arctic LNG in the first quarter 2026 could fund approximately 1,050 Shahed 136 drones every 24 hours, based on the widely cited Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimate of $35,000 per drone.
EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen continues Europe’s Doublethink on Russian energy. He has ruled out any reconsideration of the ban, hinting that the EC is aware of the ballooning European energy crisis but not willing to address it out loud.
"We've decided in the EU that we do not want to re-import Russian energy," he told reporters. "It's extremely important that we stick to this line — we cannot in Europe help indirectly finance Russia's brutal, illegal war." He added: "It would be a mistake for us to repeat what we did in the past. In the future, we will not import as much as one molecule from Russia."
"The attack on Iran must not be used as an excuse. By maintaining its dependence on gas, the EU has knowingly risked another energy crisis," said Sebastian Rötters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald.
The phasing: the ban on spot and short-term contracts came into force on April 25. Long-term contracts — covering most Yamal deliveries to Europe — follow from January 1, 2027. Sticking with the ban means the EU will need to replace around 15mn tonnes of Russian Arctic LNG in 2027.
The replacement problem
The EU is cutting its second-largest LNG supplier while its largest Gulf alternative remains partially offline and the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. A recent study suggests Russia currently has less than half the shipping capacity needed to redirect Yamal volumes to more distant Asian markets without access to the much more lucrative European ports. Without that access, annual shipments from Yamal could fall from around 270 cargoes to just 120 to 130 — sharply reducing revenues. The loss of the Russian LNG tanker Arctic Metagaz in the Mediterranean earlier this month adds further operational pressure on the Yamal fleet.
Over the last four years, Europe alone has spent over $230bn on Russian oil and gas imports. This is a structured market relationship, with some contracts running into the 2040s. The policy says phase out Russian energy. The market said there is nothing else to buy.
