Global fossil fuel emissions to hit record high in 2025, study says
Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to reach an all-time high in 2025, a new report warned Thursday, adding that keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius is now effectively out of reach. The annual Global Carbon Budget study found that despite rapid growth in renewable energy, rising demand will increase oil, gas, and coal emissions.
Issued on: 13/11/2025 -
By:FRANCE 24
Global fossil fuel emissions are set to hit a new high in 2025, according to research published Thursday that also warns curbing warming under 1.5°C would now be essentially “impossible".
The annual Global Carbon Budget report looks at humanity’s emissions of planet-heating CO₂ from burning hydrocarbons, cement production, and land use – such as deforestation – and relates the figures to the warming thresholds outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
An international team of scientists found that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will be 1.1 percent higher in 2025 than a year ago, with the massive rollout of renewable technologies still not enough to compensate for growing energy demand.
With emissions from oil, gas, and coal all set to rise, the overall figure is due to reach a record 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂.
Released as nations meet for COP30 climate talks in the Brazilian Amazon, the new study calculated a remaining allowance of 170 billion tonnes of CO₂ to limit warming to 1.5°C from pre-industrial levels – the target outlined in the Paris Agreement.
“This equates to four years of emissions at the current rate before the budget for 1.5°C is exhausted, so that is impossible, essentially,” said Pierre Friedlingstein of Britain’s Exeter University, who led the research.
The failure to cut planet-heating emissions is overshadowing COP30 in the rainforest city of Belém, taking place this week without the participation of the United States, the world’s second-largest polluter.
Despite projections that 2025 will be among the hottest years ever recorded, nations’ climate plans have fallen far short.
“Collectively, the world is not delivering,” said Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. “Everyone needs to do their bit, and all of them need to do more.”
Peters said fossil emissions in China were largely “flat” this year, particularly from highly polluting coal, which could indicate that renewables are beginning to take a greater share of energy demand.
But he noted that policy uncertainty in the world’s biggest carbon polluter meant it was too early to declare that emissions had peaked.
“The balance is shifting towards where you would start to expect emissions to go down, but it will take some time,” he said.
In the United States, coal emissions rose 7.5 percent as higher gas prices led to more power generation from the dirtier fuel.
Overall, both the US and EU bucked recent downward trends with increased emissions, partly linked to cooler winter months driving higher demand for heating.
In India, an early monsoon and rapid renewables growth helped drive a smaller CO₂ rise than in recent years.
The study, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, found that 35 countries have now managed to reduce their emissions while also growing their economies – twice as many as a decade ago.
Humanity’s total emissions, including those from land, are projected to reach 42.2 billion tonnes this year – slightly lower than last year, although with wide uncertainty.
Researchers said a reduction in deforestation and damaging fires in South America – partly linked to the end of very dry 2023-2024 El Niño conditions – had helped reduce net land-use emissions.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions hit record high in 2025
University of Exeter
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025 – reaching a record high, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.
The 2025 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.1 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year.
Decarbonisation of energy systems is progressing in many countries – but this is not enough to offset the growth in global energy demand.
With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) down to 4.1 billion tonnes in 2025, total CO2 emissions are projected to be slightly lower than last year.
With the end of the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern – which causes heat and drought in many regions – the land “sink” (absorption of CO2 by natural ecosystems) recovered this year to the pre-El Niño level.
This year’s report – published alongside a new paper in the journal Nature – examines the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon sinks. It finds that 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1960 is due to climate change weakening the land and ocean sinks.
The report says the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is “virtually exhausted”.
With no sign of the urgently needed decline of global emissions, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere – and the dangerous impacts of global warming – continue to increase.
The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich (LMU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut and more than 90 other institutions around the world.
“With CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.
“The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C, 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be gone before 2030 at current emission rate. We estimate that climate change is now reducing the combined land and ocean sinks - a clear signal from Planet Earth that we need to dramatically reduce emissions.”
Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, said: “Efforts to tackle climate change are visible, with 35 countries succeeding in reducing their emissions while growing their economies, twice as much as a decade ago, and important progress in reducing reliance on fossil fuels elsewhere. Progress is still much too fragile to translate into the sustained decreases in global emissions needed to tackle climate change. The emerging impacts of climate change on the carbon sinks is worrying and stresses further the need for urgent action.”
Glen Peters, Senior Researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, said: “It is 10 years since the Paris Agreement was negotiated, and despite progress on many fronts, fossil CO2 emissions continue their relentless rise. Climate change and variability are also having a discernible effect on our natural climate sinks. It is clear countries need to lift their game. We now have strong evidence that clean technologies help reduce emissions while being cost effective compared to fossil alternatives.”
Professor Julia Pongratz, at LMU’s Department of Geography, said: "The reduction in land-use emissions demonstrates the success that environmental policies can achieve. Deforestation rates in the Amazon have declined and are at their lowest level this season since 2014. Yet the sweeping fires in 2024 revealed how sensitive the ecosystem remains if we don't also limit global warming."
Other key findings from the 2025 Global Carbon Budget include:
- China’s emissions in 2025 are projected to increase by 0.4% – growing more slowly than in recent years, due to a moderate growth in energy consumption combined with an extraordinary growth in renewable energy.
- India’s emissions are projected to increase by 1.4% – also slower than recent trends. An early monsoon reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months. Combined with strong growth in renewables, this led to very low growth in coal consumption.
- Emissions are projected to grow in the USA (+1.9%) and the European Union (0.4%) in 2025. Emissions in these regions have declined in recent years, but colder weather and other factors led to an increase in 2025.
- Projected emissions in Japan, provided this year for the first time, are down 2.2% in line with recent trends.
- Emissions for the rest of the world are projected to increase by 1.1%.
- The projected rise in fossil CO2 emissions in 2025 is driven by all fuel types: coal +0.8%, oil +1%, natural gas +1.3%.
- Emissions are projected to increase by 6.8% for international aviation (exceeding pre-COVID levels) but to remain flat for international shipping.
- Over the 2015-2024 period, emissions from permanent deforestation remain high at around 4 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, while permanent removals through re/afforestation and forest regrowth offsets about half of the permanent deforestation emissions.
- Total CO2 emissions – the sum of fossil and land-use change emissions – have grown more slowly in the past decade (0.3% per year), compared to the previous decade (1.9% per year).
- The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is virtually exhausted. The remaining budget for 1.5°C is 170 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to four years at the 2025 emissions levels.
- The combined effects of climate change and deforestation have turned Southeast Asian and large parts of South American tropical forests from CO2 sinks to sources.
- The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 425.7 ppm in 2025, 52% above pre-industrial levels.
The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 130 scientists, provides an annual, peer-reviewed update, building on established methodologies in a fully transparent manner.
The 2025 edition (the 20th annual report) will be published in the journal Earth System Science Data on November 13 as a pre-print, and later as a peer-reviewed paper.
The Nature paper - entitled: “Emerging climate impact on carbon sinks in a consolidated carbon budget” - will have an Accelerated Article Preview (AAP) publication on 12 November 2025 at 16:00 (London time).
Journal
Earth System Science Data
Article Title
Global Carbon Budget 2025
Article Publication Date
12-Nov-2025
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