Putin Confronts Kazakhstan’s President Over U.S. Pivot
- Tokayev sought to project unity with Putin but faced quiet pressure over Kazakhstan’s growing engagement with the U.S., EU, China, and Ukraine.
- Russian influence is slipping as Kazakhstan tightens sanctions compliance and Russian businesses steadily withdraw from the Kazakh market.
- Despite upbeat rhetoric and promises of $31 billion in potential deals, structural strains in bilateral relations are becoming increasingly visible.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev kicked off a two-day visit November 11 to Russia by exchanging pleasantries in the Kremlin with Vladimir Putin and meeting with students at the prestigious Moscow State Institute for International Relations.
Tokayev sought to reassure Putin that bilateral ties retain “the character of strategic partnership,” adding that “there are no serious problems between our states.” Putin, meanwhile, voiced a desire to “talk informally about issues that are of particular interest.”
What Putin likely meant is his concern about the evident erosion of Russian influence in Kazakhstan at the expense of not only the United States and European Union, but also China, which is now Astana’s top trade partner. In addition, Kazakhstan, along with Uzbekistan, has deepened engagement with Ukraine in recent months.
Behind closed doors, Putin no doubt pressed Tokayev on the outcome of the US-Central Asia summit on November 6 in Washington, where billions of dollars’ worth of deals were announced. The Kremlin leader also probably raised the topic of Kazakhstan’s toughening stance on enforcing Western sanctions against Russia.
On November 12, full delegations from both sides were scheduled to sit down and “go over the entire agenda” of bilateral relations.
At a business forum held in Moscow in conjunction with Tokayev’s visit, Kazakh Trade Minister Arman Shakkaliev said the two countries had 29 planned business deals in place with a potential collective value of up to $31 billion. But he did not disclose any details about the projects or provide timelines. He added that educational exchanges are a “key direction” in bilateral relations, noting that more than 55,000 Kazakh citizens were studying at Russian higher education institutions.
Despite the abundance of positive rhetoric, bilateral business ties seem to be fraying. During the first year of the Russia-Ukraine war, the number of registered Russian entities operating in Kazakhstan almost doubled, going from just under 8,000 to 15,600. The number peaked in 2024 at 19,400 before starting a gradual decline. During the first nine months of 2025, the number fell to 17,500, a 7.2 percent decline since the start of the year, the Kazakh financial news outlet Finratings reported November 12.
The news outlet cited a variety of factors fueling the downward trend, including “changes in logistics [and] sanctions pressure.”
By Eurasianet
No comments:
Post a Comment