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Wednesday, October 07, 2026

  

Bulgaria calls off search for 10 missing sailors after drone attack sinks cargo ship


By Simon Ormiston & Anna Kirchheim
Published on

A second vessel hit in the same strike is still on fire and expected to go down, as Bulgaria's president convenes her national security council.

Bulgaria has called off the search for the 10 crew of a cargo ship sunk in a drone attack in the Black Sea, after finding no trace of the sailors.

The operation ended at 5pm local time (4pm CET) on Tuesday and will not resume, Rumen Nikolov, head of rescue operations at Bulgaria's Maritime Administration, told reporters in Varna on Wednesday.

Searchers found three life rafts and an overturned lifeboat from the 83-metre long Alfa Watan but no one from its crew, he said, adding that no trace of the sailors was likely to be found.

The second ship hit in the attack, the Able, will probably sink as well, Nikolov said, according to shipping news site Maritime.bg. Its engine room flooded after a sea drone struck the stern, it is sitting heavily down at the stern and it was still burning on Wednesday morning.

Pollution in the area is minimal, he said.

Bulgaria President Iliana Iotova has convened the country's national security council to discuss maritime security.

All 18 of the Able's crew, 11 Turkish and seven Indian, were rescued by the Bulgarian ferry Dioscuria and are now in Varna. Two were hospitalised, one with burns and one with a head injury.

Sea and aerial drones hit the ships at about 3am local time (2am CET) on Tuesday, around 70 nautical miles east of the town of Byala in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said.

The crew of the Dioscuria, which was in the area, saw an explosion on the first ship and rushed to the scene, Radev confirmed. They found an overturned lifeboat and life jackets but no one from the crew.

Radev said two helicopters were sent to Varna to pick up rescue teams and a Su-25 aircraft was deployed to carry out aerial reconnaissance over the area.

Both vessels had sent distress signals during the night and one disappeared from Border Police radar at about 9am local time (8am CET) on Tuesday, public broadcaster BNR reported.

Both vessels are Turkish-owned, according to the Equasis merchant shipping database and it is believed to be the first attack on shipping in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.

Ship tracking website vesselfinder.com shows the Alfa Watan was sailing under the flag of Togo and was headed for the Romanian port of Sulina.

The second ship was carrying wheat and sailing south, Radev said. The cargo of the sunken Alfa Watan is not yet known.

Radev, who called the attack "absolutely unacceptable", did not say who launched the drones, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the developments "concerning".

Three attacks on civilian shipping in the Black Sea within two days

Tuesday's attack occurred the day after a Turkish-owned cargo ship carrying grain from Ukraine to Italy was attacked off Romania's coast in the Black Sea by at least one drone and sank after catching fire, killing two crew members.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry said the ship's captain, Azerbaijani national Rustam Ismayil oglu Hasanov, died and his body was being repatriated. A second Azerbaijani crew member, Mahammad Hamza oglu Suleymanzade, is still missing and the search and rescue operation is ongoing. Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry said their families were informed and they were receiving logistical and financial support.

11 other crew members were rescued by the Romanian authorities. Three Azerbaijani sailors and one Indian crew member among them are receiving emergency medical care in Romania.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry explicitly reiterated its urgent warning to Azerbaijani citizens to refrain from travelling to active conflict zones, working in high-risk areas, or taking employment on transport vessels operating along contested maritime corridors.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russia for yesterday's sinking of the cargo ship and called it "a horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel" in neutral waters.

India condemned Tuesday's attack as part of the crew members were Indian nationals. The Indian Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that "India views these attacks on commercial shipping and seafarers with grave concern," adding that "the targeting of traffic in international waterways is severely undermining global commerce and welfare of people across the world."



Bulgaria Suspends Search for Missing Crew as Russia Denies Attack

cargo ship Alfa Watan
Alfa Watan was lost will all hands (Photo in 2023 by Alkhdair - courtesy of Vessel Finder)

The crew of a small Turkish cargo ship struck early Tuesday morning, October 6, off the coast of Bulgaria has not been located, and based on the results of the search, Bulgaria ended the search. Officials told the media in a briefing on Wednesday about the two attacks, that they believe the cargo ship Alfa Watan (3,200 dwt), registered in Tonga, sank in a matter of minutes, and that they were continuing to monitor the second vessel, Able (7,400 dwt), which has been abandoned in the Black Sea.

Multiple agencies from Bulgaria, aided by Romanian aircraft, searched the Black Sea approximately 70 miles east of the Bulgarian coast. Another cargo ship, Mercy, flagged in St. Kitts and Nevis, also diverted to the area to aid in the search. 

The authorities said they had received a signal from the Alfa Watan’s distress beacon at around 02:30 local time. Initial reports said they had located an overturned lifeboat, three rafts, and various debris. There was no sign of the crew, and the search was unable to locate any traces of the crew.

Bulgarian authorities have declined to comment on the specific number of seafarers who were lost, but media reports are saying there were between 10 and 12 crew, likely all from Syria. The ship, which was built in 1976, was owned by a Turkish company and was sailing into the Black Sea.

The second ship that was hit yesterday, another Turkish-owned general cargo ship, Able, registered in Palau, continues to draft after the evacuation. The Chief Director of Bulgaria’s Maritime Administration Agency, Rumen Nikolov, reported that the ship had issued a distress call around 03:30, with the crew reporting they were preparing to evacuate the ship.

Nikolov reported the ship was struck in the stern and that a large fire had resulted. The captain suffered a head injury but was released from the hospital. The chief engineer was severely burned and is in a hospital. The other crewmembers received a medical check and are in a hotel in Varna.

The authorities reported that the Able is low in the water at the stern. Nikolov set the odds at 90 percent that he believed the ship would sink in the coming hours.

Russia’s embassy in Bulgaria told Reuters that the two ships were not on the Ministry of Defense’s target list. It cautioned that an investigation was needed to identify the source of the drones that struck the two ships.

The Maritime Administrator in Bulgaria, however, said the ship was outside the country’s direct responsibility and that they were not planning an underwater search. He did not comment on whether any debris from the drones had been recovered.

Bulgaria’s president, Illiana Votova, however, convened the National Security Advisory Council to map out steps to increase security in the region. She said Bulgaria would be working with Romania and Turkey to strengthen safety measures for merchant shipping while also calling on both Russia and Ukraine to stop the attacks on merchant shipping in the Black Sea.


Top photo from 2023 by Alkhdair - courtesy of Vessel Finder



Bulgaria Says One Crew is Missing and Second Rescued After Drone Attack

Bulgarian patrol boats
Bulgaria was continuing to search for the missing crew of the vessel that was believed to have sunk after the attacks (Bulgarian Border Police)

Bulgarian officials are denouncing the attack on two small cargo ships in the Black Sea while reporting that the crew of one vessel is missing. The reports said the two ships were attacked overnight, with 18 seafarers rescued and a search and rescue operation continuing.

Bulgaria's Prime Minister Rumen Radev convened a special meeting of the government, and he called the attacks “absolutely unacceptable” and a “gross violation of international law.” He declined to officially state who had attacked the ships, but reports are widely attributing the strikes to Russia, a charge repeated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a posting on social media.

“If this war is not ended in time, it will continue to expand its spatial scope and increase the risk of even a global conflict,” said Radev. He pointed out that Bulgaria does not border Ukraine or Russia and lies at a critical point in the Black Sea, more than 140 nautical miles from Ukraine.

According to the reports, the Bulgarian ferry Dioscuria was in the area approximately 70 nautical miles east of Byala in the eastern part of Bulgaria when the attacks took place. Bulgarian officials said the strikes were attacks by air and sea drones.

The ferry’s crew saw an explosion and headed to the area, which officials emphasized was in Bulgaria’s EEZ. The Navy, Air Force, and Border Police also responded.

The ferry crew reported seeing an overturned lifeboat, three rafts, and life jackets in the water but was unable to locate any crewmembers. The ship, which is being identified as the Turkish-owned Alfa Watan (3,160 dwt), is believed to have sunk. Built in 1976, it is registered in Togo. The ship was sailing from Egypt and bound for Sulina, Romania, according to its AIS transmission.

The Bulgarian forces also responded to a second vessel that was on fire and aided in the rescue of 18 crewmembers from Turkey and India. Two were reported to be severely injured and were transported by the Bulgarian Navy to Varna for medical treatment. The 16 other crewmembers were transported to shore by a border patrol boat.

The second vessel is identified as the Turkish-owned Able. Built in 1991, the ship is registered in Palau and reportedly had a cargo of wheat heading for Italy.

Bulgarian officials reported they are continuing to search for the crew from the first ship. They did not comment on the number of missing individuals.

The reports said it was the first attack in Bulgarian waters, and it was quick to draw international commendation. Hungary’s Prime Minister posted on social media that they would stand with Bulgaria.




Ship sinks after drone attack in Bulgaria's Black Sea zone, crew missing

Ship sinks after drone attack in Bulgaria's Black Sea zone, crew missing
PM Rumen Radev said the attack was "absolutely unacceptable". / government.bgFacebook
By bne IntelliNews October 7, 2026

A cargo ship sank and its crew went missing after drones attacked two merchant vessels in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea on October 6, Bulgarian officials said, raising concerns about the widening risks to civilian shipping from the war in Ukraine.

The vessels were attacked by air and sea drones at about 3 a.m. local time, around 70 nautical miles (130 km) east of the Bulgarian coastal town of Byala, Prime Minister Rumen Radev said.

One of the ships, the Togo-flagged Alfa Watan, sank. The vessel was Turkish-owned and was reportedly heading towards the Romanian port of Sulina. Its cargo and the number of people aboard were not immediately clear.

A Bulgarian vessel that went to the scene found an overturned lifeboat, life jackets and rafts but no crew members, Radev said. A search-and-rescue operation was under way.

The second vessel, the grain carrier Able, was hit and caught fire. Its 18 crew members - 11 Turkish and seven Indian nationals - were rescued by the Bulgarian roll-on/roll-off vessel Dioscuria, Radev said. Two crew members, including the captain, were seriously injured and taken to a military hospital in Varna.

"This is an absolutely unacceptable attack, a gross violation of international law and maritime affairs," Radev said at an emergency government meeting, BTA reported.

He said it was not immediately known whether the drones had originated from Russia or Ukraine.

Rising Black Sea risks

The incident comes as attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea have increased, with vessels carrying Ukrainian grain among those hit, and as European governments warn of a growing threat from Russian hybrid warfare.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attacks, saying the situation in the Black Sea was becoming increasingly concerning.

"Commercial ships – and innocent crews – are being targeted, with lives already lost at sea," von der Leyen said on X. "Attacks on civilian shipping are unacceptable."

She noted that the incident came a day after a Turkish ship carrying Ukrainian grain was hit and sunk off Romania.

Radev did not directly blame Russia for Tuesday's attack, but linked the incident to the war in Ukraine.

"As I have long maintained, if this war is not halted in time, it will continue to expand its geographical reach and increase risks, including the risk of a global conflict," he said, according to BNR.

Bulgaria, a NATO member, does not border Russia or Ukraine but occupies a strategically important position on the western Black Sea. Its exclusive economic zone covers more than 29,000 square kilometres.

President Iliana Iotova will convene Bulgaria's Consultative Council on National Security on October 7 to discuss risks to maritime security and critical infrastructure stemming from the war in Ukraine, her office said.

The Bulgarian authorities were also monitoring the sunken vessel and the surrounding area for possible environmental risks, Radev said.

The incident followed a separate attack near Ukraine's port of Odesa in which a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel was reportedly hit, killing one crew member and injuring seven others.

  

Drones hit two ships off Bulgaria's coast, search and rescue ongoing as one sank


By Simon Ormiston & Anna Kirchheim
Published on

Drones hit two ships off Bulgaria's coast and one of them sank, with the crew missing, the day after another drone attack sank a ship near Romania's shore in the Black Sea, in two consecutive drone attacks on NATO's Eastern flank countries.

A massive search is under way in the Black Sea for the crew of a cargo ship that sank after drones struck two commercial vessels off Bulgaria's coast early Tuesday, the day after another drone attack sank a Turkish grain ship off the coast of Romania, killing 2 crew members.

Sea and aerial drones hit the ships at about 3am local time (2am CET), around 70 nautical miles east of the town of Byala in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev said.

The crew of the Bulgarian ferry Dioscuria, which was in the area, saw an explosion on the first ship and rushed to the scene, Radev confirmed. They found an overturned lifeboat and life jackets but no one from the crew.

Officials have not said how many people were on board, nor the origin of the drones.

A second ship was attacked and caught fire, with all 18 of its crew rescued by the Dioscuria. Eleven are Turkish and seven Indian, according to the televised address from Radev.

Two of them were hospitalised, one with burns and one with a head injury. The other 16 were being brought ashore on a Border Police patrol boat.

Radev said two helicopters were sent to Varna to pick up rescue teams and a Su-25 aircraft was deployed to carry out aerial reconnaissance over the area. The operation is being run by the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre.

Both vessels sent distress signals during the night and one disappeared from Border Police radar at about 9am local time (8am CET), public broadcaster BNR reported.

Bulgarian shipping news site Maritime.bg named the sunken ship as the Alfa Watan and the second as the Palau-flagged Able. It said the strikes were the first attack on shipping in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.

Both vessels are Turkish-owned, according to the Equasis merchant shipping database.

Ship tracking website vesselfinder.com shows the Alfa Watan was sailing under the flag of Togo and was headed for the Romanian port of Sulina.

The second ship was carrying wheat and sailing south, Radev said. The cargo of the sunken Alfa Watan is not yet known.

Radev, who called the attack "absolutely unacceptable", did not say who launched the drones, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the developments "concerning".

Three attacks on civilian shipping in the Black Sea within two days

Tuesday's attack occurred the day after a Turkish-owned cargo ship carrying grain from Ukraine to Italy was attacked off Romania's coast in the Black Sea by at least one drone and sank after catching fire, killing two crew members.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry said the ship's captain, Azerbaijani national Rustam Ismayil oglu Hasanov, died and his body was being repatriated. A second Azerbaijani crew member, Mahammad Hamza oglu Suleymanzade, is still missing and the search and rescue operation is ongoing. Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry said their families were informed and they were receiving logistical and financial support.

11 other crew members were rescued by the Romanian authorities. Three Azerbaijani sailors and one Indian crew member among them are receiving emergency medical care in Romania.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry explicitly reiterated its urgent warning to Azerbaijani citizens to refrain from travelling to active conflict zones, working in high-risk areas, or taking employment on transport vessels operating along contested maritime corridors.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russia for yesterday's sinking of the cargo ship and called it "a horrific strike by two Russian drones on a civilian vessel" in neutral waters.

India condemned Tuesday's attack as part of the crew members were Indian nationals. The Indian Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that "India views these attacks on commercial shipping and seafarers with grave concern," adding that "the targeting of traffic in international waterways is severely undermining global commerce and welfare of people across the world."




Bulgarian PM says drone attack on two ships is 'flagrant' breach of maritime law

File photo of Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev
Copyright AP Photo

By Simon Ormiston
Published on

The EU pledged "full solidarity" with its eastern members as the search went on for the sunken vessel's crew, and no one has yet been blamed for the strikes.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev has condemned a drone attack on two commercial ships in the Black Sea that sank one of them, calling it "a flagrant violation of maritime law"

"Such an attack within the Bulgarian exclusive economic zone is absolutely unacceptable," he told reporters on Tuesday at the start of an emergency government meeting on the strikes.

Sea and aerial drones hit the vessels at about 3am local time (2am CET), around 70 nautical miles east of the town of Byala according to Radev, the Bulgarian Telegraph Agency (BTA) reported. He did not say who was behind the attack.

Radev warned that unless the war in Ukraine is brought to an end, it will keep widening its reach and raising the risks, including that of a global conflict.

"The situation significantly complicates navigation in the Black Sea, drives up insurance premiums, and makes maritime traffic extremely difficult," Radev said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said attacks on civilian shipping were "unacceptable" and that the EU stood "in full solidarity with our member states on the eastern flank".

"The situation in the Black Sea is increasingly concerning. Commercial ships – and innocent crews – are being targeted, with lives already lost at sea," she wrote on X.

The crew of the sunken ship are still missing and the search for survivors is continuing. Radev said the state's priority was to protect lives regardless of who was sailing in Bulgaria's economic zone.

The Bulgarian prime minister also addressed the Emil, a cargo ship attacked by Russian drones in August and now drifting towards Bulgaria's waters. Moscow confirmed the strike, claiming that the ship was carrying military equipment for Ukraine.

"We will not in any way allow the Bulgarian coast to be threatened," Radev said.

The emergency meeting brought together the defence, interior, transport and environment ministries, the presidency and the security services.

The attack came a day after a Turkish-owned cargo ship carrying grain in the Black Sea was hit by at least one drone and sank after catching fire.


 

The Caspian Sea has been shrinking for decades. Now, a new island has emerged

Aerial view of a new island in the northern Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan.
Copyright Copyright: Daniyar Akimzhanov

By Meruyert Zhakiyanova
Published on

Scientists warn that parts of the northern Caspian could face an Aral Sea-like scenario, while climate change and human water use are adding pressure on the region.

The Caspian Sea is the largest inland body of water on Earth, but for years it has been shrinking.

The northern and north-eastern parts along Kazakhstan's coast form the shallowest sector of the Caspian Sea, typically ranging between just three and six metres. But as water levels continue to fall, following decades of climate change and human activity, environmentalists are discovering clusters of under-water islands.

The latest was spotted days ago near Kulaly Island during a recent aerial survey.

Volunteer and environmental activist Daniyar Akimzhanov was part of the group that reported the discovery. He says that the newly emerged island is relatively small, but it is far from an isolated case.

In fact, over the past four to five years, Akimzhanov says he has documented several new islands in this part of the Caspian Sea.

“The one in the photo I sent you is the smallest. There are much bigger new islands,” he explains.

The Caspian Sea's secret islands

Some stretch around one kilometre in length and 200 to 300 metres in width and wildlife has already begun reaching the newly exposed land.

Akimzhanov says he personally spotted a wild boar on one of the islands, while wolves also make their way there across the ice. The newly emerged islands usually do not get names, he says.

The Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, which began work in September 2025 after being established on the instructions of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, says more areas of land are likely to emerge. However, not all of them will become permanent islands.

“The future of each newly exposed area depends on the seabed topography, waves, wind-driven changes in water levels and the subsequent dynamics of the Caspian Sea level,” the institute says.

The emergence of new islands is one of the most visible signs of a much broader transformation: the Caspian Sea is retreating.

The Caspian Sea is retreating

The Caspian Sea is the world's largest landlocked body of water. It is bordered by five countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan. More than 80 per cent of its river inflow comes from Russia’s Volga River.

Dr. Sifan Koriche, a hydroclimate scientist at the University of Alabama who has published several studies on the Caspian Sea, explains its water balance in simple terms.

“It's like a simple water balance. The incoming water is from river inflow and precipitation, while the outgoing water is only through evaporation,” he says.

According to instrumental observations, the Caspian Sea level in the Kazakh sector fell from -26.82 metres in 1996 to -29.27 metres in 2025. This represents a decline of 2.45 metres over the past three decades, or an average of around 8–9 centimetres per year.

The decline has continued. According to the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, the average sea level at the Kulaly Island monitoring station stood at -29.42 metres as of July 2026, the lowest level recorded during the entire study period.

The north-eastern Caspian, including the coast of Kazakhstan's Atyrau region, is particularly vulnerable to falling water levels. With an average depth of around six metres and a very gentle seabed slope, even a relatively small drop in water level can cause the shoreline to retreat over long distances.

The scale of the retreat is already visible. According to the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, between 2000 and 2025, the area covered by water in the studied part of the north-eastern Caspian decreased by around 16,384 square kilometres.

Satellite images analysed by the institute also show how the coastline has changed in recent years. Between 2021 and 2026, falling water levels gradually exposed new areas of seabed near Kulaly Island and the Tyuleniy Archipelago.


Satellite image of the north-eastern Caspian Sea in 2021. Copyright: Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea
Satellite image of the same area in 2026. Copyright: Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea

The Caspian has historically experienced periods of both falling and rising water levels. From the 1930s to 1977, its level dropped by around three metres. Over the following two decades, it rose again by about 2.5 metres, before beginning another period of decline.

But while fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level are not new, scientists say climate change and human activity are now affecting its water balance.

Previous research has linked the decline in recent decades mainly to increased evaporation from the Caspian Sea as regional temperatures have risen. A decrease in precipitation has also contributed, but to a smaller degree.

Human activity also affects how much water reaches the Caspian. Dams regulate the rivers flowing into the sea, while water is extracted across the basin for irrigation and other uses. The way reservoirs are managed can also affect river flows reaching the sea.

Why Caspian seals are declining

The Caspian seal, found nowhere else in the world, has already undergone a dramatic population decline. Over the past 100 years, its population has fallen from around one million to about 100,000.

Caspian seals in Kazakhstan. Copyright: Mirgaliy Baimukanov

The retreating sea is adding pressure on the species by transforming the isolated islands it uses as seasonal haul-out sites.

According to seal researcher Assel Baimukanova, the area of island haul-out sites has decreased more than 15-fold since 1995.

In 2021, Baimukanova and other researchers from the Institute of Hydrobiology and Ecology stayed on a small newly formed island they called New Durnev, where thousands of seals gathered. When they returned in 2023, the island had expanded significantly and could at times be reached by car. It later connected to the mainland.

“For seals, it became inaccessible. No isolated island means no seals,” Baimukanova said.

As the sea retreats, seals are also being pushed westwards. The north-eastern Caspian had long served as a natural refuge for the animals because it was difficult for people to access. Further west, seals face more human activity, including fishing, shipping, tourism and oil and gas operations.

Warming temperatures pose another threat to the seals: the loss of stable winter ice. Caspian seals give birth on ice, but Baimukanova says warmer winters are making it thinner and less stable.

For newborn pups, the loss of stable ice cover means they have very little chance of survival.
Assel Baimukanova
Seal Researcher

The effects of the retreating sea go beyond wildlife. The Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea says shrinking shallow waters are also affecting wetlands and could pose growing challenges for fisheries, ports, shipping and other coastal infrastructure.

What happens next?

Most climate scenarios suggest that the Caspian Sea will continue to decline during the 21st century, although scientists stress that the exact scale remains uncertain.

Koriche's research projects a decline of up to eight metres by the end of the century under an intermediate climate scenario, although results vary significantly between models.

To illustrate what even a smaller decline could mean, Koriche says a five-metre drop could expose around 77,000 square kilometres of seabed in the northern Caspian.

Koriche says the entire Caspian is not facing an Aral Sea-like scenario because its central and southern basins are much deeper. But parts of the shallow northern Caspian could face significant desiccatio

“The northern part covers a quarter to one third of the water body. There is a chance that this northern region could face a scenario similar to the Aral Sea,” he says.

But the scale of the future decline is not predetermined. Koriche's research suggests that human water extraction could add up to seven metres to the decline under some scenarios.

He says measures should focus both on slowing the decline and adapting to it. This includes better management of water use across the Caspian basin, particularly the Volga, as well as stronger monitoring and data sharing between countries.

The Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea also says adaptation is becoming increasingly important. Measures include protecting vulnerable ecosystems, monitoring newly exposed seabed and adapting ports and other coastal infrastructure.

Some regional initiatives are already underway. Kazakhstan has proposed an interstate programme to conserve the Caspian Sea's water resources, while the five Caspian states are also working on a 2026–2036 action plan under the Tehran Convention to improve monitoring, assess the impacts of sea-level changes and develop adaptation measures.

“Effective solutions are only possible through coordinated action by all five Caspian states,” the institute says.

Monday, October 05, 2026


China Becomes More Aggressive In The South China Sea – OpEd

This screengrab taken from a handout video filmed on June 17, 2024, and released by Armed Forces of the Philippines shows Chinese coast guard personnel aboard their inflatable boats blocking Philippine navy boats during a confrontation at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. Phoot Credit: Armed Forces of the Philippines video, X

October 5, 2026

By Veeramalla Anjaiah


Key Takeaways:


The piece says China is building and militarizing features and entering the EEZs of the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia under a nine- then ten-dash line the 2016 arbitral award rejected, which Beijing still calls null.

It reports a PLA drill at Scarborough Shoal and a China Coast Guard block of the Philippine resupply ship M/V Lapu-Lapu at Second Thomas Shoal, with no collision or injuries; the U.S. embassy condemned the maneuvers and China called the mission provocative.

India is said to have delivered about $330 million of BrahMos to the Philippines, with talks of further sales to Vietnam and Indonesia and interest from Malaysia; the author treats missiles as insufficient without pressure to honor UNCLOS.



In the South China Sea (SCS), China is expanding its presence in disputed waters and adopting increasingly dangerous tactics against neighboring Southeast Asian states.

China has been building artificial islands and converting some of them into military bases in the SCS. As part of its grey-zone tactics, China has intruded into the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia several times.

China claims more that 80 percent of the SCS based on the controversial and illegal Nine-Dash Line (now 10-Dash) map. It has overlapping claims with Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei Darussalam.


China also claims a part of Indonesia’s EEZ in the North Natuna Sea. Indonesia is not a claimant state in the SCS dispute. Chinese vessels several times intruded into Indonesia’s EEZ and its fishing boats stolen the fish from there.

An expansionist and aggressive China is challenging the centrality of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as the foundation of global order at sea, a decade after the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) rejected Beijing’s sweeping maritime claims and declared the Nine-Dash Line map and China’s claims were illegal.

Who will stop mighty China and its aggression in the SCS?

The U.S. offered to supply weapons to the Philippines but it is not enough. To stop China’s navy, India offered to sell its BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to Southeast Asian countries.

BrahMos missiles are long-ranged and ramjet powered and they can be launched from submarines, ships, fighter jets or transporter erector launchers.

BrahMos is a joint venture between India’s Defence Research and Development (DRDO) and the Russian NPO Mashinostroyeniya. The missile is based on P-800 Oniks.


BrahMos is a benchmark for India’s emerging export story with exports to cross US$600 million to the Philippines, Indonesia and the Philippines, the ANI news agency reported.

The missile also has an air-launched version and it is a great success on Sukhoi fighter jets. BrahMos missile system to the tune of about $330 million has been delivered to Philippines.

India said that exports should be about $100 million to start with for Vietnam, and for Indonesia, it should be around $200 million.

India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh had described that BrahMos is not just a missile, but a symbol of the growing indigenous capabilities of India.

The missile features a traditional warhead and an advanced guided system and possesses the capability to strike long distances at supersonic speeds. This combination of speed, accuracy, and power makes BrahMos one of the best systems in the world.

Malaysia is also currently considering to purchase BrahMos missiles from India. China claims a part of Malaysia’s Sabah and Sarawak areas and Chinese ships regularly intrudes into Malaysia’s EEZ.

Recently, China’s military conducted a ​joint naval and air training exercise around ‌a disputed shoal and in the waters and airspace around the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the SCS, the Reuters news agency reported.

The Shoal is located in the Philippines, where it is known as Bajo de Masinloc. It is also claimed by China based on its controversial Nine-Dash line map and call it Huangyan Dao.

The People’s ​Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command, in a statement on WeChat social media app, described the operation as a necessary response ​to actions by “certain countries” it said had ​undermined regional peace and stability.


It that said that the training “aims to test and enhance combat capabilities in safeguarding China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests”.

The China Coast Guard (CCG) announced separately that the exercises focused on “maritime rights-protection, law enforcement, and management and control” in the waters around Scarborough Shoal.

The exercise came just after two days after the Philippines accused China of obstructing a resupply mission to its troops stationed at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, prompting a strong rebuke from the Chinese government.

The Philippines Coast Guard (PCG) said in a statement that “temporarily suspended after a CCG vessel carried out dangerous maneuvers” against the Philippine resupply vessel M/V Lapu-Lapu. The maneuvers “put Filipino personnel at risk” and prevented the mission from being completed.

According to The Diplomat magazine, the Shoal located around 200 kilometers to the west of the Philippines’ Luzon Island and 874 kilometers from China’s Hainan Island, Scarborough Shoal has been a persistent flashpoint in the maritime disputes between the Philippines and China.

The Shoal has been under Chinese control since 2012, when the two nations engaged in a tense 10-week stand-off that concluded with China occupying the feature, despite an agreement for mutual withdrawal from the Shoal.

Finally, the Philippines took China to the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) and won the case. But China boycotted the PCA’s proceedings and rejected the PCA’s ruling.

Since then, China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels have surrounded the Shoal and made repeated attempts to restrict Filipino fishermen from accessing the rich fishing grounds inside the atoll’s central lagoon.

There was ​no collision, and no one was injured, but the ​dangerous maneuvers of the China Coast Guard created a serious ⁠risk of collision.

For its own part, CCG spokesperson Jiang Lue accused the PCG of engaging in “provocative” acts at Second Thomas Shoal, restating its position that the BRP Sierra Madre was illegally grounded on the shoal in 1999.

“China Coast Guard, in accordance with the law, took measures including on-site monitoring and following, as well as issuing verbal warnings to the Philippine resupply vessel,” it stated.

In a statement, the U.S. embassy in Manila condemned the Chinese action and lauded its Philippine allies’ “professionalism and restraint.”

“The United States strongly condemns the use of dangerous blocking and other irresponsible maneuvers by the China Coast Guard and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) that threatened a collision with a Philippine vessel and prevented a lawful and routine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal,” it said.

China criticized the U.S. for supporting the Philippines provocative actions.


“China urges the U.S. side to stop fanning the flames and refrain from actions that undermine regional peace and stability,” it said.

China and the Philippines clashed many times over the Shoal during the 2023 and 2026 period.

The two sides finally agreed to de-escalate the situation at Second Thomas Shoal, reaching a “provisional understanding” that allowed the Philippines to resupply the grounded warship.

China’s attempt to interrupt the Philippines resupply mission suggests that the “provisional understanding” between Manila and Beijing has broken down, potentially ushering in a new period of tension at Second Thomas Shoal.

This year, the Philippines is marking the 10th anniversary of the 2016 PCA’s Arbitral Award. The Award, which declared that China’s claims were illegal in the SCS, was final and legally binding but China remains adamant and tensions remain increasing. It continues to say that the Award is “illegal, null and void”.

China has been using its trade and investments as tools to influence countries like Indonesia and Malaysia to adopt a soft approach towards its aggressive policies in the SCS.

Indonesian Deputy Foreign Minister Arif Havas Oegroseno stressed the importance of maintaining a habit of cooperation to sustain communication and prevent tensions in the South China Sea.

He urged all the countries to abide by the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) as the primary framework for peaceful dispute resolution.

The international community must put pressure on China to stop its excessive and respect the international law. It is very strange China, which signed and ratified the UNCLOS, refuses to follow international maritime laws.



About Veeramalla Anjaiah
Veeramalla Anjaiah is a Jakarta-based senior journalist and the author of the book “Azerbaijan Seen from Indonesia
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