Nine States Sue Trump Administration to Stop Offshore Wind Buybacks

Nine states are participating in the three lawsuits challenging the buyback of offshore wind leases (file photo)

Published Sep 22, 2026 4:38 PM by The Maritime Executive

California and a coalition of eight eastern states filed a total of three lawsuits on September 22, each seeking to block deals made by the Trump administration to buy back offshore wind leases in exchange for investments in fossil fuel projects. These suits follow earlier ones, in which they each allege the deals are illegal, violate several federal laws, and redirect renewable energy investments in Democratic-led states to other areas of the country.

New York is leading a coalition that includes New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont, calling the deals with Bluepoint Wind and Invenergy illegal. The federal government committed to reimbursing $1.4 billion in exchange for canceling four wind leases. Bluepoint received $765 million to cancel a project offshore from New York in exchange for investing in LNG projects. Invenergy got a total of $653 million for three offshore wind leases in exchange for investments in natural gas plants in Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri and geothermal projects in the western United States.

In addition to the two suits filed today, the eastern states also sued in June, challenging the deal struck by the Department of the Interior to buy back offshore wind leases from TotalEnergies. 

“Americans are facing increasing energy costs because this administration would rather pay off energy companies than let us build the new power sources we need,” said New York State Attorney General Letitia James, who is a vocal critic of Donald Trump and faced a personal suit by the administration. “These illegal backroom deals take money that should have gone toward lowering New Yorkers' bills and hand it to fossil fuel projects in other states, all while our energy demand continues to grow.”

New York argues that the canceled projects were expected to bring more than $16 billion in investments into the state and hamper the state’s efforts to meet energy demands. It cites information from New York’s energy planners that project electricity demand will grow eight percent by 2030 and 24 percent by 2040, driven in part by economic development and new large loads such as data centers. The state alleges that the administration is misusing taxpayer money and sabotaging the state’s ability to meet growing energy needs.

“The Trump administration's unlawful pay-to-not-play scheme to pressure companies to forego planned offshore wind projects in America is an outrageous abuse of taxpayer dollars that hurts our ability to meet our energy needs,” said New York State Governor Kathy Hochul.

The eastern state coalition is asking the court to stop the deals. California filed a separate suit that alleges that the administration is bypassing Congress and illegally using a general fund set up by Congress to settle lawsuits to fund these buybacks. It has been pointed out previously that none of the wind development companies had sued the United States.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta and the California Energy Commission (CEC) suit is against the Trump administration and Invenergy over the deal to pay the company $111 million to cancel the Morro Bay Wind Energy Area off the Central California coast and redirect the investments away from California.

The California suit calls it a “sham settlement” and asserts that it violates numerous federal laws. It cites rules established by Congress that govern the offshore energy leasing program, including stakeholder participation rights for affected states like California and a cap on how much the government can pay to a developer when it cancels a lease.

California had previously filed a Notice of Intent to Sue, which gave 60 days for the Department of the Interior and Inverengy to “cure any violations.” California followed a similar process before suing Golden State Wind and the federal government at the end of August over the cancelation of that lease.

The attorney general and energy commission argue that offshore wind is part of a strategic plan that calls for the state to develop 25 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2045, enough to power roughly 25 million homes and to provide about 13 percent of the state’s electricity supply. They contend it would accelerate California’s clean energy transition, create local manufacturing jobs, and drive economic development.

The administration has continued to make unspecified claims that offshore wind turbines pose a national security risk, despite the Department of Defense having reviewed the plans for each project. It asserts that the wind turbines could create radar interference. 

The eastern state coalition was victorious in court previously when it challenged the Trump administration’s stopping wind leasing for a review. The court found that the administration was violating federal process with an open-ended review and that the companies were entitled to a timely review of applications.

US Offshore Wind Project Revolution Wind Installs Last Turbine

Revolution Wind installed its first turbine in September 2024 (Orsted)

Published Sep 18, 2026 6:51 PM by The Maritime Executive

One of the few large offshore wind projects proceeding in the United States, Revolution Wind completed the installation of its 65th and final wind turbine. The project began delivering power in March despite repeated opposition from the Trump administration and now expects to complete its commissioning by the end of the year.

Revolution Wind is being developed in a 50-50 partnership between Orsted and Global Infrastructure Partners’ Skyborn Renewables. Media reports indicate it represents an investment of $6.2 billion to develop and will become the third large, commercial-scale offshore wind farm in the United States to be completed. It is located in Rhode Island Sound, not too far from the Vineyard Wind and South Fork Wind projects, which have already been completed and commissioned.

The project received its final approvals in November 2023 after the companies noted more than nine years of planning and permitting. It has 20-year power purchase agreements to deliver 400 MW to Rhode Island and 304 MW to Connecticut.

The project started offshore construction in 2024, and by August 2025 it was reported to be nearly 80 percent complete. The first of its turbines was installed in September 2024, and by August 2025, Revolution Wind said 45 of the 65 Siemens Gamesa turbines were installed.

The Trump administration issued its first stop-work order to the project that same month, claiming irregularities in the permitting. The project went to court and, a month later, received a preliminary injunction against the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management from enforcing the order. Revolution Wind, however, was also included in the December 2025 move by the Department of the Interior, which ordered all five of the under-construction wind farms to stop work, this time citing undefined issues for potential interference from the turbines with radar and national security. Revolution Wind won a second injunction early in 2026 that permitted it to resume work again.

By March 2026, the project was reporting that it was more than 90 percent complete and that several key construction scopes were finished. By the middle of the month, it had begun delivering power to the grid, but the developers kept a lower profile after their two confrontations with the administration.

Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee issued a statement today calling the completion of the installation “another major milestone.” He commented, “We said we would see Revolution Wind through to the end,” while citing the promise for the state as it begins receiving power.

The full project is slated to generate 704 MW. An earlier analysis from the State of Connecticut’s Department of Energy and Environmental Protection found that Revolution Wind would save New England ratepayers as much as $500 million per year in wholesale energy costs, and that was before the recent increase in energy costs.

Orsted confirmed in a brief statement that this phase of construction had been completed. It said that commissioning would be continuing, with a target by the end of the year for full operations.

Revolution Wind is being followed by Coast Virginia Offshore Wind, being developed by Dominion Energy. It has also begun power generation and expects to complete construction by mid 2027. The only other offshore wind projects under construction in the United States, Empire Wind and Sunrise Wind, are also expected to complete construction in 2027.

Superhot Geothermal Just Got A $180 Million Vote Of Confidence

By Haley Zaremba - Sep 02, 2026

• Quaise Energy closed a $180 million Series B, with $35 million coming from drilling giant Nabors Industries.
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• The Houston startup's millimeter wave drilling technology aims to reach superhot rock anywhere on Earth, freeing geothermal from geologically lucky spots like Iceland.
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• Rhodium Group projects geothermal could meet up to 64% of data center demand growth by the early 2030s, positioning it as a real answer to AI's power crunch.
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As the artificial intelligence boom drives major energy demand growth and catalyzes an all-of-the-above approach to energy development, enhanced geothermal energy is catching a windfall of investment dollars and renewed policy interest. A new wave of next-gen geothermal energy projects and startups may have the backing it takes to bring the cutting-edge, round-the-clock clean energy technology out of the lab and into commercial markets across the United States.

Geothermal energy is not a new technology, but its applications are severely limited in its traditional form. The process uses the thermal energy from the Earth’s core where it naturally escapes to the surface – such as in geysers – where it then converts that heat into electricity. The problem is that such vents are geological anomalies, making geothermal energy viable and scalable in places like Iceland and almost nowhere else on the planet.

But creative approaches to tapping into that natural thermal energy could soon bring geothermal energy to a grid near you. Enhanced geothermal methods borrow drilling technologies from the oil and gas sector – and even from nuclear fusion in some cases – to dig deeper into the Earth to access the core’s heat from nearly anywhere on the surface. These technologies are hugely promising for the clean energy transition and for commercial application as they are totally emissions-free, but are not intermittent like solar and wind. And, critically, they continue to enjoy broad bipartisan support, including strong policy backing by the current administration.

Some companies are looking to take this approach one step further, drilling down even deeper to reach hotter temperatures for more powerful energy generation. And one of the leading startups looking to develop this ‘superhot’ geothermal at a utility scale just got a huge step closer to bringing that plan into reality. Houston-based geothermal startup Quaise Energy just announced the final close of its Series B funding this week, raising a total of $180 million in equity financing. A significant chunk of that money – $35 million – comes from drilling heavyweight Nabors Industries.

“We are unlocking the most powerful clean energy source on Earth, and the Series B signals deep conviction across a wide range of investors,” Carlos Araque, CEO and President of Quaise Energy, was recently quoted in Business Wire. “Quaise’s millimeter wave technology changes the equation entirely by reaching superhot rock at temperatures and depths that are inaccessible with conventional drilling, transforming geothermal from a location-dependent resource into a global energy solution,” added Nabors President and CEO Anthony G. Petrello.

The timing for gigawatt-scale geothermal power could not be better, as reliable and indigenous forms of clean energy become more important than ever against the backdrop of the artificial intelligence boom. Data center hyperscalers are driving up energy demand projections at a jaw-dropping rate and changing the global energy landscape at a nearly incomprehensible rate. Geothermal could be an indispensable part of the solution to this ballooning energy problem. New York-based research firm and think tank Rhodium Group geothermal says that geothermal could meet up to 64 percent of the expected growth in data center energy demand as soon as the early 2030s.

Geothermal could also transform the energy landscape in quieter, but no less important ways, such as by changing the way that we heat and cool our buildings. As extreme weather conditions grow more common and more intense, energy-efficient heating and cooling is a surprisingly critical part of the energy security puzzle.

What is more, the nascent nature of geothermal technology offers some critical advantages. As Latitude Media reported back in April, “geothermal has the chance to get it right the first time” – particularly when it comes to managing public backlash and policy snags such as those that have created major bottlenecks for nuclear, solar and wind energies.

In short, the time is right for a geothermal energy breakthrough. Whether or not superhot holds the answer, the sector’s progress is a huge step in the right direction at an absolutely critical juncture for national and global energy security.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

 

Vulcan Energy seeks investors for German lithium expansion project, courts Asian interests

Reuters | September 3, 2026 

Vulcan’s geothermal power plant in Germany. (Image courtesy of Vulcan Energy Resources.)

Lithium developer Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX: VUL) on Thursday announced phase two of its lithium project in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley and commenced process to bring in additional strategic investors.

Funding efforts for the second phase, Project Ludwig, are being launched as construction gets underway on the project’s first phase, Lionheart.

Vulcan will produce mainly EV battery-grade lithium chemicals using geothermal brine and also provide renewable heating.

The Perth-headquartered company owns 86% of the first phase of the project, Project Lionheart, while the remaining 14% is owned by the German government-backed Federal Raw Materials Fund.

Vulcan also owns 85% of Project Ludwig, while existing investors German industrial conglomerate Siemens SIEGn.DE , construction group Hochtief (ETR: HOT) and investment firm DemEA hold the remaining 15%.

The company is now launching a process to bring in additional minority strategic investors

“We are looking for strategic investors to take a minority stake at the asset level. Phase one investors were very Eurocentric. For phase two we have interest from European investors but of the unsolicited interest, a lot is coming from Asia,” Executive Chair Francis Wedin told Reuters.

Vulcan’s search for a strategic investor comes as Asian battery and EV makers establish supply chains in Europe. World’s largest EV battery maker CATL (SHE: 300750), raised about $4.6 billion in a Hong Kong listing in 2025, saying most of the proceeds would fund a battery plant in Hungary as part of its overseas expansion strategy.

With the Vulcan’s stock down 41.5% year-to-date and closing at A$2.610, near its 52-week low, the search for a strategic investor comes at a key juncture as the company looks to mitigate risk through partnerships

(Reporting by Shravya Marakini in Bengaluru and Melanie Burton in Melbourne; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee)

 

Can Pax Silica De-Sinicize U.S. Supply Chains? – Analysis

Diplomats pose for a photograph after signing the Pax Silica declaration on December 12, 2025. (US State Department)

 August 23, 2026

By Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Key Takeaways:

• Pax Silica is a U.S.-led coalition of about 24 countries aimed at building China-independent supply chains for critical minerals, semiconductors, and AI, with an early industrial hub planned in the Philippines.
• Its success hinges on long-term endurance and concrete delivery; past U.S. initiatives (Blue Dot, B3W/PGII, IPEF) largely stalled at standards and pledges, while China has locked in partners through sustained industrial policy, refining capacity, and tangible BRI projects.
• To compete, Washington must offer developing partners real value-added processing, technology transfer, and better regulation rather than mainly raw-material extraction or security-for-minerals deals, or risk losing credibility and ground in the tech race.

The U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative seeks to reduce dependence on China across critical-mineral, semiconductor, and AI supply chains, but its success will depend on sustained commitment, concrete project delivery, and meaningful benefits for developing-country partners.

In the high-stakes race for AI and computing power, China is moving up from the foundation to the front, catching up with the West. The United States is doing the reverse, rebuilding its material and production base to reinforce its lead. Washington is working backward to develop a complete supply chain independent of Beijing. Last December, the U.S. launched Pax Silica, a coalition of 24 countries aimed at creating a future AI ecosystem from energy and raw materials to advanced manufacturing. Its pioneering project, an industrial hub, is set to open in the Philippines. Endurance, continuity, and the question of whether geopolitics can trump economics will shape the prospects of this U.S.-led endeavor. 

From mining and refining critical minerals to accelerating domestic semiconductor production, China is becoming an emerging rule-maker in the evolving technology order. Since 2018, it has been hosting annual international AI conferences. To meet the challenge, Washington rolled out the Clean Network program in 2020 to prevent Chinese suppliers from dominating global information and communication solutions. However, outside U.S. allies, calls to ban Huawei and other Chinese vendors largely went unheeded, especially in the Global South. Affordability, performance, compatibility, lack of competitive alternatives, and the opportunity cost of being left out prevailed over US pressure. In 2023, Beijing proposed the Global AI Governance Initiative. Last July 16, 29 countries agreed to establish the World AI Cooperation Organization, which will be headquartered in Shanghai. With China’s entrenched capacity and growing confidence in both the hard and soft dimensions of the global digital infrastructure, the stakes are high for Pax Silica. Failure to compete may mean further erosion of U.S. technological lead. Two key challenges stand out. 

Playing the long game 

First is endurance. China’s rise as the world’s largest mineral refiner and production hub is neither inevitable nor providential. Rather, it is the result of a consistent industrial policy to develop national capacity, assured of a huge domestic demand, driven by ambitious targets and sustained by a willingness to bear great costs. It took about three to four decades for the country to become the world’s top ore processor and global factory. And it paid a steep price to attain this position, enduring tremendous environmental, health, and social harm, which were redressed in later years as the country’s economic strategy produced developmental dividends. 

China produces 76.35% of the world’s refined cobalt and 44.44% of refined copper. It also accounts for 79.38% of global graphite output, 69.23% of rare earths, 42.31% of molybdenum, 20.67% of bauxite (from which aluminum is derived), 17.8% of lithium, and 13.1% of silver. The U.S. has high import reliance on China for a range of critical minerals with civilian and military applications. These include yttrium (93%), bismuth (60%), rare earths (56%), antimony (54%), arsenic (52%), graphite (43%), magnesium (32%), tantalum (22%), gallium (19%), and tungsten (14%). These minerals are used in the manufacture of microchips, mobile phones, computers, consumer electronics, wind turbines, solar panels, electric batteries, transmission cables, precision-guided munitions, jet engines, and missile propulsion systems, among others. 

Pax Silica brings together affluent, technologically advanced countries and resource-rich developing nations. The U.S. is leveraging its alliances and partnerships to disperse production of critical minerals and industrial inputs and reduce the time needed to develop an integrated supply chain untangled from China. Cost and gain will be unevenly distributed, valuations may differ, and negotiation skills among members may vary. But lopsided deals in which some parties bear disproportionate harm, with few safeguards and little benefit, should be avoided. Metrics should go beyond commercial viability to include improved mining regulation, technology transfer, and more value-added processing or manufacturing in developing member countries. This will increase the initiative’s appeal and help future-proof long-term deals from potentially disruptive domestic politics. 

China offered market, investment, and infrastructure to lock in long-term supply agreements. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) built roads, railways, ports, and industrial parks. On the ideational level, Beijing is positioning itself as a leader of the Global South, pursuing South-South cooperation with resource-rich developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In 2021, the country launched the Global Development Initiative. The so-called resource curse has long plagued several poor but mineral-rich countries wracked by persistent conflict, corruption, and weak governance. The absence of such countries in Pax Silica is likely deliberate. The project does not want to get sucked into risky conflict areas early on or create missionary expectations. But there are cases that show how access to capital and technology can transform commodity exporters. For instance, Chinese investment upgraded Indonesia’s nickel-refining capacity, vindicating Jakarta’s resource nationalism and inspiring other countries to leverage their natural resources to elevate their position in the value chain. 

Washington should recognize this development. More developing states are exercising their agency to chart policies that maximize the value of their finite natural bounty, create better opportunities for their people, and reduce adverse impact on the environment. The U.S. should go beyond transactional minerals-for-security deals like those floated for Ukraine and DR Congo. Concerns that reshoring may mean Global South members will simply perform their usual role of supplying raw ores for processing abroad need to be allayed. America has to offer enticing incentives beyond alarming partners about the perils posed by a rival’s near-monopoly on rare earths and overcapacity. 

Less optics, more execution 

The second hurdle is continuity. Pax Silica is not the first major U.S. initiative intended to counter China’s burgeoning economic clout. The Blue Dot Network, rolled out in 2019, aimed to certify projects to access a diverse pool of funds, thereby providing an alternative to China’s largely state-backed BRI finance. It morphed into the Build Back Better World (B3W) in 2021 and rebranded as the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) the year after. But beyond adopting standards and principles, these pitches did not lead to a pipeline of projects. In 2020, the U.S. also proposed the Economic Prosperity Network to restructure supply chains disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), launched in 2022, was seen as America’s counteroffer to free trade agreements (FTAs), which have become unpopular at home, but which regional partners hope to see as the economic largesse that complements deepening alliance ties. None of these proposals made much headway. 

In contrast, China’s BRI, criticisms and all, has delivered concrete projects. These include highways, a mass transit system, coal power plants, and fiber optic cable under the massive China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In Southeast Asia, notable completed projects include the Laos-China railway and Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail (HSR). Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link, set to open next year, and the ongoing Thailand-China HSR construction are also part of BRI’s broad portfolio. In an apparent role reversal, while Washington retreats from globalization, Beijing doubles down on promoting free trade, ratifying its membership in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2021 and upgrading its trade accord with ASEAN last year. In 2021, Beijing also applied to join the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) and a free trade pact that the US used to champion, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was rechristened as the Comprehensive and Progressive TPP (CPTPP) in 2018. The U.S. also ceded leadership in green energy and mobility to China by rolling back incentives for renewables and electric vehicles in favor of fossil fuels. Hence, Pax Silica needs to do better. Restoring the credibility of U.S. economic pitches is on the line. 

Even in the Philippines, site of the proposed debut Pax Silica project, U.S. pledges fell short. The $300 million acquisition by American private equity firm Cerberus of the former Hanjin shipyard in Subic, which filed for bankruptcy in 2019, was billed as the biggest public-private partnership in the 75-year history of Philippines-U.S. relations. But while the investment may have forestalled a possible Chinese takeover of the insolvent enterprise, the deal failed to revive the shipyard’s fortunes until another Korean company with a solid shipbuilding track record, HD Hyundai, entered the equation in 2024. In 2022, when Vice President Kamala Harris visited Manila, the US proposed a menu of initiatives, such as developing a nickel and cobalt processing facility and a geothermal power plant in Mindanao. Not much has been heard about these promises since then. 

Pax Silica can be transformative. Washington’s desire to break Beijing’s stranglehold on critical minerals can dovetail with partners’ desire to diversify markets and investors and grow their own industries. It makes sense for the Philippines, eager to catch up with fellow ASEAN peers, to offer attractive concessions to secure a potentially groundbreaking deal. Negotiation delays, whether efficiency-seeking firms will follow their governments, and leadership changes are variables that cannot be ignored. For instance, elections in Pax Silica members and non-signatory participants, such as the U.S., Philippines, and Taiwan, in 2028 may affect investors’ calculus. For sure, the initiative has stirred interest. Building urgency may be the next step. But the most important work is to ensure that proponents stay committed. Absent continuity and endurance, Pax Silica may worryingly join a growing number of U.S. initiatives that did not measure up.

• This article was published at China-US Focus

About Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is a Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation. He was a lecturer at the Chinese Studies Program at the Ateneo de Manila University and the International Studies Department at the De La Salle University and contributing editor (Reviews) for the journal Asian Politics & Policy. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies. He obtained his Master of Laws from Peking University and a MA International Affairs at American University in Washington D.C.

View all posts by Lucio Blanco Pitlo III →

 

PSU to lead national AI effort to make geothermal power cheaper

Portland State leading team from Stanford, the U.S. Geological Survey and 400C Energy in one of the first projects chosen for the Department of Energy's Genesis Mission

Portland State University

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Example sorting of the Great Basin into regions that are geologically similar using the ARID algorithm. AI models trained within regions may have lower uncertainty in temperature predictions, leading to a clearer understanding of the cost to develop geothermal energy.

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Credit: Courtesy of John Lipor | Portland State University

Portland State University has been selected to lead a national research team that will use artificial intelligence to lower the cost of finding geothermal energy. The project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, is one of the first chosen under DOE's Genesis Mission.

The project is called ARISE, for AI Regionalization and Informed Siting for Enhanced Geothermal Systems. It places Portland State at the center of a national collaboration that includes Stanford University, the U.S. Geological Survey and 400C Energy, a geothermal exploration and development company. The team spans machine learning, geoscience, energy economics, a federal science agency and a startup, and the work requires all of them at once.

Geothermal power uses heat from deep underground to make electricity. It runs around the clock in any weather, which is what the grid needs as demand climbs. The obstacle is knowing how hot it is down there before committing. Temperature miles underground cannot be measured without drilling, and drilling is expensive. Companies make multimillion-dollar decisions based on predictions, and the deeper the target, the less accurate the prediction gets. That uncertainty is one of the main reasons geothermal energy has not grown faster.

“You're making a costly bet on how hot it is,” said John Lipor, Wedge Vision Associate Professor of electrical and computer engineering at PSU, who leads the project. “We use AI and years of historical data to make that bet less of a gamble.”

How It Works

The team is combining three tools its members have already built. A Stanford model predicts underground temperature across the country. A second Stanford model turns a range of possible temperatures into a range of possible electricity prices, so uncertainty shows up in dollars instead of degrees. PSU's contribution is an algorithm called ARID, which sorts the country into zones that are geologically similar.

That sorting step matters more than it sounds. One model trained on the whole country has to describe the Nevada desert and the Appalachian foothills at the same time, and ends up imprecise about both. Give each zone its own model, and each one only has to be right about one kind of place. The team then adds a final step that recommends which measurement to take next, and where, to shrink the cost range the most.

“Deciding where to make valuable new measurements has always relied heavily on expert judgment,” said Erick Burns, a research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey who has co-led the USGS geothermal machine learning team with Lipor since 2021. “What is new here is a way to test whether machine learning can improve data collection strategies while optimizing both information content and cost savings.”

Among the project's deliverables is a new underground temperature map for Oregon. The team also plans to release its models, data and code publicly through DOE's Geothermal Data Repository, so other researchers and companies can use them.

The nine-month first phase has a specific target: narrow the range on those cost estimates by at least 10 percent on average compared with the method used now. The team will test the system against real measurement records from the DOE-funded Utah FORGE research site, replaying the site's history and comparing what the AI would have recommended with what the engineers there actually chose to do.

Why It Matters

Electricity demand from data centers worldwide is projected to more than double by 2030, with U.S. data centers alone consuming up to 12 percent of national demand. Geothermal is one of the few carbon-free sources that can run continuously to meet that kind of load. DOE analysis projects that enhanced geothermal systems could grow geothermal capacity from close to 4 gigawatts today to between 90 and 300 gigawatts by 2050, but only if exploration costs come down. That is the bottleneck ARISE is aimed at.

“Geothermal has enormous potential, but the cost of finding out what is underground has held it back,” said Roland Horne, professor of energy science and engineering at Stanford University and director of the Stanford Geothermal Program. “We're looking forward to taking the next step to making geothermal energy more widely available.”

The project reflects PSU's focus on public impact research. The algorithm PSU contributes to the pipeline grew out of a master's thesis by graduate student Joshua Sills, who continues on the project.

What's Next

If the first phase meets its targets, the team plans to build the work into a tool developers could use to plan a full exploration campaign, and to extend testing to other regions, including the Newberry volcanic area in central Oregon.

About the Genesis Mission

The Genesis Mission is a historic national initiative led by the U.S. Department of Energy, which is building the world's most powerful integrated science discovery platform. By uniting government, industry, academia, and philanthropy, it is accelerating breakthroughs in energy, scientific discovery, and national security through a new platform that combines AI, supercomputing, quantum systems, and advanced scientific instruments.

About the Awards

The goal of the Phase I RFA awards is to identify promising pathways toward transformative scientific capabilities and establish a foundation for future investment and scale. Project teams will design and demonstrate research workflows that integrate AI with scientific investigation, while rigorously evaluating whether those approaches can accelerate discovery, improve predictive capabilities, enhance experimentation, or generate new scientific insights.

Attribution

ARISE was selected under DOE Request for Application DE-FOA-0003612, Focus Area 17C, and is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy. Portland State University is the lead institution. Collaborating organizations are Stanford University, the U.S. Geological Survey and 400C Energy.

About Portland State University

Portland State University is Oregon’s Urban Research University, located in the heart of downtown Portland. Guided by its mission to “let knowledge serve the city,” PSU combines world-class research, hands-on learning, and deep community partnerships to turn ideas into action — in the Pacific Northwest and around the world. Learn more at pdx.edu.