What the Market Gets Wrong about Renewables

By Leonard Hyman & William Tilles - Jan 10, 2026

• A German study argues that a renewables-dominated grid can fully decarbonize power systems within 20 years.
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• Large-scale renewables would undermine the economics of base-load power generation, making new fossil, nuclear, and even existing base-load plants increasingly uneconomic and at risk of becoming stranded assets.
• 
  
• The findings suggest renewables will not only meet new electricity demand but replace legacy generation,

US power markets are still underestimating the economically disruptive role of renewables in power generation. According to a German study released last week (Weidlich, et al, 2025 “Base load power plants are not essential for future power systems”, Cell Reports Physical Sciences), their next target or victim could be base load power generation itself. This multi-authored study by German academics was tasked with answering a big question: could the German economy decarbonize in twenty years relying solely on incremental investment in renewables? Their answer was a definite “yes—assuming some other stuff happens and you’re willing to assume some consequences like “stranded assets”. The fact that a high level group of almost two dozen academics could theoretically design a future power system that’s fully decarbonized in twenty years doesn’t strike us as all that amazing. However, they also provided a broad investment framework for thinking about the integration and implications of a renewables-dominant grid.

The study claimed that providing a fully functioning, fully decarbonized power grid had four components: 1) most obviously, a big expansion in renewable investments (solar/wind), 2) a robust and flexible grid (more transmission to move power), 3) diverse short and long duration battery storage options, and 4) demand side flexibility. There is nothing revolutionary or dramatic in the above list.  Build more renewables and transmission? OK. More batteries for addressing off peak needs? Sure. And greater use of demand side management? With the proliferation of large commercial loads like data centers, it becomes a lot easier to find or negotiate flexible terms with large, sophisticated power users.

But there is always something. Constructing a decarbonized grid like the one envisioned literally destroys the economics for all their base load power plants. Even worse, literally all new power generating technologies — fossil, nuclear, and geothermal — would be economically undercut by greater penetration of renewables and demand flexibility. Why? Because all the deployment of solar and other resources, being discussed here, could provide all power needs much more cheaply (and more cleanly). Nothing else would be able to compete. Even though there are likely to be gaps in generation needed, say during off peak hours, the meager revenues these are likely to provide won’t support the expense of maintaining a large base load power plants. At this point, this is no longer an academic exercise. The study’s conclusion seems pretty straightforward. Large-scale renewable deployment will destroy the economics of base load power generation, which, obviously, would have major implications for future capital allocation and stranded asset exposure for the power generation sector. And we see no reason why this economic logic does not apply in other Western economies.

For those of us on this beat for a while, none of this is a surprise. Renewables like wind and solar always win the economic battle in power generation. Always. They have almost zero operating expenses. Conventional fossil-fired facilities, by contrast, pay enormous sums for fuel every year of operation, and for this reason, they can’t compete. Solar power is produced from a chemical reaction. And the technology keeps improving and getting cheaper or more productive. Fossil-fueled technology is not getting cheaper while fuel costs, especially gas, remain volatile. The German study concluded that gas-fired power plants were closest to offering some prospective economic grid value, but new nuclear plants, both big and small, were so expensive as to be irrelevant in this grid planning context. 

The financially interesting question is whether our recently completed fleet of new base load power generating facilities is already on its way to becoming extinct, so-called “stranded assets”, that is stranded economically by a superior (i.e cheaper) power producing technology. We see this as a matter of tipping points. Once or if renewables -plus- batteries erode power market economics beyond a certain point, large expensive base load lower stations could become economically unstable. So the conclusion of the German grid decarbonization study is that yes, we can construct and operate a decarbonized grid, but that will financially kill all our base load power plants. In their own words:

“System level modeling for Europe shows that the question is not whether new base load plants are essential for a secure, net, zero grid—they are not. The defining question is whether they can become economical in a system dominated by low-cost renewables.“

And note the wording, whether a new base load plant “can become economical”, which implies to us that they are already out of the money.  And the study points to one more conclusion. We always assumed that renewables would pick up a large percentage of incremental electricity demand.  This study implies that renewables will not only pick up incremental demand but also replace legacy equipment, which, over two decades, would double or triple demand for renewable energy assets.  Finally, this is all about economics.

By Leonard Hyman and William Tilles for Oilprice.com

The Renewable Energy That Trump Has Not Targeted

BECAUSE IT'S FRACKING BY ANY OTHER NAME

By Felicity Bradstock - Jan 01, 2026

• Geothermal power has avoided political pushback and is receiving federal support under the Trump administration.
• 
  
• Enhanced geothermal systems and fast-track permitting are accelerating project development nationwide.
• 
  
• Cities, universities, and utilities are adopting geothermal networks to decarbonise heating and provide reliable clean energy.
• 
  

Geothermal is one of the few renewable energy sectors that President Donald Trump has not tried to quash in favour of fossil fuels in the United States. There is significant promise for the future of geothermal power in the United States, even though most projects are still in the nascent stage of development. Both public and private funding are expected to bolster the sector in the coming years. 

According to the European Commission, geothermal energy is a renewable energy source harnessed from the thermal energy stored in rocks and fluids deep within the Earth’s crust. Drilled wells connect the fluid to the earth’s surface, allowing it to be used for a range of purposes such as to generate electricity or provide direct heat for district heating, water heating or industrial processes. 

Countries with easily accessible geothermal reserves have been harvesting power from these sources for centuries. Meanwhile, countries with harder-to-reach reserves can now use enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) to access vast, clean power sources. EGS is based on technology used in fracking operations, which emerged over the last century. Unlike solar and wind that depend on the weather, geothermal power can run at all hours of the day, making it a highly attractive renewable energy source.

In May, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced plans to implement emergency permitting procedures to accelerate assessments of geothermal energy projects across the country, in line with President Trump’s energy agenda. Projects selected for fast-tracking included three in Nevada, operated by Ormat, which received funding during President Trump’s first term in office in 2020. The move is expected to reduce approval times from months or even years to a maximum of just 28 days for energy or mining projects on federal lands that are deemed urgent.

“Geothermal energy is a reliable energy source that can power critical infrastructure for national security and help advance energy independence,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at the time. “We’re fast-tracking reliable energy projects while strengthening national security and supporting American workers.”

In December, U.S. geothermal energy leader Fervo Energy announced it had raised $462 million in its Series E funding round to accelerate growth and support the ongoing construction of Cape Station and early development of several other projects. Cape Station in Utah is expected to deliver 100 MW of geothermal power to the grid starting in 2026, before expanding to 500 MW by 2028. 

“Fervo is setting the pace for the next era of clean, affordable, and reliable power in the U.S.,” said Jeff Johnson, General Partner at B Capital. “With surging demand from AI and electrification, the grid urgently needs scalable, always-on solutions, and we believe enhanced geothermal energy is uniquely positioned to deliver.”

In New Haven, Connecticut, works have commenced on a geothermal energy network that will offer clean heating and cooling to the city’s Union Station and a new public housing development. It is the start of a project aimed at decarbonising all municipal buildings and transportation by the end of 2030.

“At the end of the day, you’re going to have the most efficient heating and cooling system available for our historic train station as well as roughly 1,000 units of housing,” said New Haven’s executive director of climate and sustainability, Steven Winter. ?“Anything we can help do to improve health outcomes and reduce climate change–causing emissions is really valuable.”

Nearby, at Yale University, development has started on a geothermal loop serving several science buildings. An energy bill that passed earlier this year and established a grant and loan programme is expected to spur the development of more thermal energy networks in the state. 

However, it was in Framingham, Massachusetts, where the first utility-owned geothermal network in the United States came online in June 2024. In December, the Boston-based non-profit, the Home Energy Efficiency Team (HEET), announced that it had been awarded an $8.6 million grant by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office. The funding will contribute to the expansion of an existing networked geothermal system. HEET’s existing project provides clean heating and cooling to around 140 residential and commercial customers. 

“This award is an opportunity and a responsibility to clearly demonstrate and quantify the growth potential of geothermal network technology,” said HEET’s Executive Director Zeyneb Magavi, “Which we will do, together with our partners and colleagues on the project team and at GTO. This project also represents the continuation of a collaboration that began when HEET first pitched our idea of geothermal networks to gas utilities in 2017.”

There are high hopes for the United States geothermal energy industry, particularly as it is continuing to garner federal support under the Trump administration. The expansion of geothermal power projects across the country are expected to support decarbonisation aims and help reduce reliance on fossil fuels in the coming years.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

Watchdog Warns Trump and Burgum’s Halting of Offshore Wind Projects Is Illegal

“Burgum’s actions on offshore wind appear to be motivated by the personal financial interests of those in the administration, not our collective national interests.”



US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum speaks during an event with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House on October 6, 2025 in Washington, DC.
(Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Julia Conley
Dec 29, 2025
COMMON DREAMS

A week after the US Department of the Interior said it was immediately halting five offshore wind projects in the interest of “national security,” a watchdog group told congressional committees Monday that the move is “not legally defensible” and raises “significant” questions about conflicts of interest concerning a top DOI official’s investments in fossil gas.

Timothy Whitehouse, executive director of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), wrote to the top members of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee and the House Committee on Natural Resources regarding the pause on projects off the coasts of Virginia, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts—projects that account for billions of dollars in investment, employ thousands of people, and generate sustainable energy for roughly 2.5 million homes and businesses.
.


Trump Continues ‘War Against Renewables’ With Halt of Five Offshore Wind Farms

The announcement made by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum last week pertained to “five vague, perfunctory, cookie-cutter orders” halting the projects, wrote Whitehouse, but PEER is concerned that the orders were issued to evade the Congressional Review Act (CRA), under which the action to halt the projects likely constitutes a “major rule.”

Whitehouse explained:
Under the CRA, a rule that meets any one of three criteria (an annual effect on the economy of $100,000,000 or more; a major increase in costs or prices for consumers, individual industries, federal, state, or local government agencies, or geographic regions; or in pertinent part significant adverse effects on competition, employment, investment, productivity, or innovation) is a major rule. Interior’s pause likely meets all three.

As a major rule under the CRA, the pause cannot take effect until at least 60 days after BOEM provides Congress the requisite notification and report under the CRA, which, according to GAO’s database, has not yet occurred. Congress must use its oversight authority to unveil the truth and, as appropriate, and to enforce the rule of law.

He said in a statement that “Burgum’s move is designed to bypass all congressional and public input.”




The CRA states that a rule is “the whole or a part of an agency statement of general or particular applicability and future effect designed to implement, interpret, or prescribe law or policy or describing the organization, procedure, or practice requirements of an agency.”

Press statements by the DOI and by Burgum last week were “statements of general applicability and imminent future effect, designed to implement policy,” wrote Whitehouse, who also said the interior secretary embarked on “a coordinated rollout with Fox News entities.”

On December 22, Fox anchor Maria Bartiromo asked Burgum at 8:00 am Eastern, “What next action did you want to tell us about this morning?” Five minutes later, FoxNews.com published its first story on Burgum’s orders, citing a press release that had not yet been made public and including a quote from the secretary about the “emerging national security risk” posed by the offshore wind projects.

“If last week’s actions are allowed to stand, future presidents will have unchecked authority under the guise of national security to target federal leases related to entire disfavored energy industries for political purposes.”

Burgum’s announcement to Fox came at least one to two hours before Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) acting Director Matthew Giacona provided the orders to the lessees running the five wind projects.

Further, wrote Whitehouse, “Burgum’s voluminous public comments in the hours and days since the pause further show the true purpose of Interior’s singular action.”

“The national security pretext quickly gives way to broad and spurious talking points about the ‘Green New Scam,’ how ‘wind doesn’t blow 24-7’ (evincing Burgum’s seeming unfamiliarity with energy storage technologies), and unyielding promotion of liquified natural gas projects,” wrote Whitehouse.

Aside from the alleged illegality of Burgum’s order, PEER pointed to Giacona’s potential conflicts of interest with BOEM operations and specifically with halting wind projects. Giacona is a “diligent filer” of financial disclosure forms required by the Ethics in Government Act, noted Whitehouse—but those forms point to potential benefits he may reap from shutting down offshore wind infrastructure.

Giacona reported his purchase of interests in the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) on September 16. The fund tracks daily price movements of “natural” gas delivered at the Henry Hub in Louisiana and is subject to regulation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

“Accordingly, a government employee who has an interest in UNG also has a potential conflict of interest with the underlying holdings of UNG (currently primarily natural gas futures contracts at the Henry Hub),” wrote Whitehouse.

PEER does not know whether Giacona continues to hold a financial interest in UNG or whether the offshore wind pause will have a “direct and predictable effect on a financial interest in UNG,” but Whitehouse noted that Burgum and DIO have entwined the pause with the promotion of liquefied natural gas.

“It is disconcerting that Mr. Giacona temporarily had even a de minimis financial interest in natural gas futures while also leading the agency that manages the development of natural gas resources on the outer continental shelf,” wrote Whitehouse, adding that Giacona also sold interests in the United States Oil Fund on September 3, while overseeing BOEM.

Based on Giacona’s investments, said Whitehouse, “Burgum’s actions on offshore wind appear to be motivated by the personal financial interests of those in the administration, not our collective national interests. This is another misguided step in transforming the federal government into a franchise of the fossil fuel industry.”

“On public lands across the United States, the Department of the Interior has tens of thousands of additional active leases related to oil, gas, wind, solar, and geothermal production and mining for energy-related minerals,” he added. “If last week’s actions are allowed to stand, future presidents will have unchecked authority under the guise of national security to target federal leases related to entire disfavored energy industries for political purposes.”

Ultrasonic insights into well integrity: Advances and challenges in cement bond evaluation

KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.

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image: 

The workflow for the ultrasonic enhanced signal processing techniques in cased wells (UESTC) for ultrasonic pulse-echo and pitch-catch measurements including: a) Waveform quality assessment; b) Simultaneous inversions of mud and cement impedance; c) Simultaneous inversions of tool trajectory and mud velocity; d) Suppression of S0 mode wave; e) Extraction of TIE waveform using machine learning; f) Enhancement of TIE arrivals using machine learning; g) Imaging of cement-formation interface using RTM.

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Credit: HUA WANG, MENG LI, QIANG WANG, SHAOPENG SHI, GENGXIAO YANG, ZHILONG FANG, AIHUA TAO, MENG WANG

Ensuring the integrity of wells is fundamental to safe oil and gas production, geothermal energy development, and geological carbon storage. At the heart of well integrity lies cement bonding, which isolates subsurface formations and prevents hazardous fluid migration. Against this backdrop, a team of researchers from China conducted a comprehensive review of recent advancements in cement bond quality assessment based on ultrasonic measurements.

“Ultrasonic logging has become a powerful non-destructive tools for evaluating cement bond quality behind casing, offering high-resolution insight into both the casing–cement and cement–formation interfaces,” shares lead author Prof. Hua Wang, a professor at University of Electronic Science and Technology of China. “Over the past decade, ultrasonic pulse-echo and pitch-catch techniques have advanced cement bond evaluation.”

Recent advances in ultrasonic well logging include:

• Automated waveform quality control using variational autoencoders; simultaneous inversion of borehole-fluid and cement acoustic impedance;
• Suppression of casing reflections via phase-shift interpolation and F–K transforms; joint inversion of tool trajectory and borehole properties under eccentric conditions; separation of A0 and S0 modes using variational mode decomposition;
• Machine-learning-based enhancement and arrival-time picking for TIE waveforms; and
• Imaging of the cement annulus–formation interface.

“These approaches have been validated using synthetic simulations, full-scale physical experiments, and field case studies, demonstrating robustness across varied borehole environments and well conditions,” says co-author Meng Li, an associate professor at Xi’an Shiyou University. “Machine learning further increases reliability and automation, particularly in complex wavefields and low signal-to-noise settings.”

By bridging physics-based modeling with data-driven approaches, this review presents a pathway toward more reliable, scalable, and intelligent ultrasonic cement evaluation—an essential step for meeting increasingly stringent integrity requirements in energy transition applications such as carbon capture and storage.

###

Contact author details: Hua Wang, School of Resources and Environment, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China, huawang@uestc.edu.cn

unfold quality research globally. In 2013, our focus shifted to open access publishing. We now proudly publish more than 200 world-class, open access, English language journals, spanning all scientific disciplines. Many of these are titles we publish in partnership with prestigious societies and academic institutions, such as the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC).

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Journal

Artificial Intelligence in Geosciences

DOI

10.1016/j.aiig.2025.100170 

Method of Research

Systematic review

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Recent advances and challenges of cement bond evaluation based on ultrasonic measurements in cased holes

The deepest parts of the Arctic Ocean are warming now too

While it is well documented that global warming is heating the world's oceans, there is now further evidence that even the deep waters are being affected.


Iceberg in the Arctic Ocean in September 2025 Photo: Henry Patton

Elizaveta Vereykina

journalist
26 November 2025 - 

THE BARENTS OBSERVER



A new study analysed temperature data gathered in recent decades to identify the main sources of heat causing Arctic Ocean warming. The study by the team from the Ocean University of China and Laoshan Laboratory demonstrated that the effect of climate change on the oceans is far greater than previously thought.

Photo: Wikipedia/Mikenorton

The Arctic Ocean includes various basins, each with its own specific characteristics and rate of warming. The process of Atlantification in the Arctic Ocean - the process where the Arctic Ocean becomes more influenced by the warmer, saltier waters of the Atlantic - is well-known.

However, a new study has found that the deep water in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean is warming at a rate of 0.020°C per decade. According to the researchers, this rate of warming is too fast to be explained by natural geothermal heating alone.

“Our findings indicate that the deep Greenland Basin warming has already exerted obvious impacts on the deep Arctic Ocean,” researchers emphasise.

The Greenland basin is a deep-water basin within the Greenland Sea, which is considered an outlying part of the Arctic Ocean and borders Greenland to the west.


The team concluded that the additional warming in the Eurasian Basin originates from the Greenland Basin, which, due to rapid warming, is no longer functioning as a cold source for the Eurasian Basin as it did in the past.

"We find that the rapid warming in the deep Greenland Basin diminishes its cooling effect on the deep Eurasian Basin via the Fram Strait," the study concludes.


The shallow Lomonosov Ridge prevents the warm water from spreading further into the Amerasian basin, "maintaining its relatively slow warming rate".

For Norway, for example, the warming of the coastal waters is impacting the local ecosystem. According to experts at the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research, warmer waters affect the spawning of cod.

"Some species have absolute temperature limits. Cod, for instance, cannot spawn when the temperature exceeds 10 degrees,' said marine scientist Mari Myksvoll.

Fishermen in the Arctic have reported an increase in the number of fish that are more typical of southern waters.

"I see cod, mackerel, yellowfin tuna, herring and haddock moving north from the south," Kent Jensen, who has fished in the Barents Sea near Kirkenes for 15 years, told the Barents Observer, "Ten years ago, there wasn't so much mackerel in the northern part of the Barents Sea."

VIDEO: Sean Boyd on why smart money is rushing back to gold and Canada

Alex Deluce | December 22, 2025 | 

World economies and financial systems are on uncertain ground, and smart money knows it. That’s why it’s moving decisively toward gold, says Sean Boyd, former CEO and current Chair of Agnico Eagle, one of the world’s leading gold producers.

In this interview, Boyd discusses why gold is breaking out across currencies, why critical minerals have become strategic assets, and why Canada’s moment in mining has arrived.

With decades of experience building one of the highest-quality businesses in global mining, Boyd also shares why gold has shifted from a trading instrument to a core investment, why processing — not geology — is the real bottleneck in critical minerals, and why Canada needs speed, coordination, and conviction to compete.

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Alex Deluce is the founder of Gold Telegraph, an online news site covering gold, mining, and global economic trends. He has spent over a decade analyzing precious metals and interviewing key figures in finance and mining

Troilus in talks on German funding for Quebec gold-copper mine

Bloomberg News | December 22, 2025 | 

Credit: Troilus Gold

The German government is in talks with Canadian firm Troilus Mining Corp. to fund investment in a large mining project, helping secure copper supplies that are key to the energy transition.

The money will come from Germany’s new raw materials fund, which allows a capital injection of as much as €150 million ($176 million) per project, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named as the matter is private.

Copper demand has been soaring on broader optimism around the global energy transition and concerns about future supply disruptions due to mining outages. The metal has benefited from governments worldwide pushing for more green infrastructure, since it’s a key input for electric vehicles, grid upgrades and renewable power.

Montreal-based Troilus plans to revive a gold mine in north-central Quebec, which will also produce copper as a by-product.

Germany’s raw materials fund is a key tool to secure supplies of such critical inputs and is administered by development bank KfW. It can tap as much as €1 billion of budget resources. Earlier this month, the fund provided part of the financing for Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd.’s lithium project that will use geothermal power. It’s also planning to support another project in Australia.

The German Economy Ministry didn’t comment on the talks with Troilus. However, a spokesperson said via email that beyond Vulcan, two other projects were currently undergoing in-depth reviews. Troilus did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Troilus had closed an offtake agreement with Germany’s Aurubis AG for copper concentrate in August. The Canadian company has a market value of about C$850 million ($617 million). It counts Quebec’s pension fund manager Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec among its top shareholders, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Aurubis didn’t comment on the funding talks.

Troilus has also secured as much as $700 million in financing to restart the mine from KfW, Societe Generale SA and Export Development Canada.

(By Petra Sorge and Mathieu Dion)

SolGold agrees to $1.2 billion takeover by top investor Jiangxi Copper

Reuters | December 24, 2025

Cascabel copper-gold project in northern Ecuador. (Image courtesy of SolGold.)

Gold and copper miner SolGold said on Wednesday it had agreed to be acquired by its largest shareholder Jiangxi Copper in a deal valuing it at 867 million pounds ($1.17 billion).

The 28-pence-per-share deal represents an almost 43% premium to Ecuador-focused SolGold’s closing price on November 19, the day before Jiangxi first approached the company for a deal.

SolGold’s shares closed marginally higher at 25.65 pence in a holiday-shortened trading session on Wednesday.

The agreement gives Jiangxi control of SolGold’s Cascabel project in Ecuador’s Imbabura province, as miners race to secure copper supplies amid rising demand driven by electric vehicle and AI infrastructure investments.

The region is home to one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits in South America.

The London-listed miner said earlier this month it was inclined to recommend the offer, which was Jiangxi’s third proposal to acquire the company.

“JCC is delighted to have received the unanimous recommendation of the SolGold board and strong support from other large shareholders in favour of the acquisition. JCC is excited by the potential of the Cascabel project,” Shaobing Zhou, vice chairman and general manager of Jiangxi, said in a statement.

SolGold’s other top investors include global miner BHP and Newmont.

($1 = 0.7405 pounds)

(By Shashwat Awasthi; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar and Kirsten Donovan)

Trump’s rollbacks made 2025 a turbulent year for clean energy. So why are experts optimistic?

Copyright AP Photo/John Locher, File

By Jennifer McDermott with AP
Published on 24/12/2025 EUR0NEWS

“Trump’s effort to... harm clean energy just isn’t enough to offset the natural advantages it has,” says one expert.


This year, US President Donald Trump worked to boost polluting fuels while blocking wind and solar. But amid the lows, there were some highs for clean energy, experts promise.

News agency The Associated Press surveyed dozens of energy developers, experts and politicians, many of whom described 2025 as turbulent and challenging for clean energy, though there was progress as projects connected to the electric grid.

They said clean energy must continue to grow to meet skyrocketing demand for electricity to power data centres and to lower utility bills.

Solar builder and operator Jorge Vargas said it has been “a very tough year for clean energy” as Trump often made headlines criticising renewable energy and Republicans muscled a tax and spending cut bill through Congress in July that dramatically rolled back tax breaks for clean energy.

“There was a cooldown effect this year,” said Vargas, cofounder and CEO of Aspen Power. “Having said that, we are a resilient industry.”

Plug Power president Jose Luis Crespo said the developments - both policy recalibration and technological progress - will shape clean energy’s trajectory for years to come.
USA faced energy policy whiplash in 2025

Much of clean energy's fate in 2025 was driven by booster Joe Biden's exit from the White House.

The year began with ample federal subsidies for clean energy technologies, a growing number of US-based companies making parts and materials for projects and a lot of demand from states and corporations, said Tom Harper, partner at global consultant Baringa.

It ends with subsidies stripped back, a weakened supply chain, higher costs from tariffs and some customers questioning their commitment to clean energy, Harper said. He described the year as “paradigm shifting”.

Trump called wind and solar power “the scam of the century” and vowed not to approve new projects. The federal government canceled grants for hundreds of projects.

The Republicans’ tax bill reversed or steeply curtailed clean energy programs established through the Democrats’ flagship climate and health care bill in 2022. Wayne Winegarden, at the Pacific Research Institute think tank, said the time has come for alternative energy to demonstrate viability without subsidies. (Fossil fuels also receive subsidies.)

Many energy executives said this was the most consequential policy shift. The bill reshaped the economics of clean energy projects, drove a rush to start construction before incentives expire and forced developers to reassess their strategies for acquiring parts and materials, Lennart Hinrichs said. He leads the expansion of TWAICE in the Americas, providing analytics software for battery energy storage systems.

Companies can't make billion-dollar investments with so much policy uncertainty, said American Clean Power Association CEO Jason Grumet.

Consequently, greenhouse gas emissions will fall at a much lower rate than previously projected in the US, said Brian Murray, director of the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainability at Duke University.
Still, solar and battery storage are booming

Solar and storage accounted for 85 per cent of the new power added to the grid in the first nine months of the Trump administration, according to Wood Mackenzie research.

That's because the economics remain strong, demand is high and the technologies can be deployed quickly, said Mike Hall, CEO of Anza Renewables.

Solar energy company Sol Systems said it had a record year as it brought its largest utility-scale project online and grew its business. The energy storage systems company CMBlu Energy said storage clearly stands out as a winner this year too, moving from optional to essential.

“Trump’s effort to manipulate government regulation to harm clean energy just isn’t enough to offset the natural advantages that clean energy has,” Democratic US Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse said. "The direction is still all good.”

The Solar Energy Industries Association said that no matter the policies in Washington, solar and storage will grow as the backbone of the nation's energy future.
Nuclear and geothermal had a good year, too

Democrats and Republicans have supported investing to keep nuclear reactors online, restart previously closed reactors, and deploy new, advanced reactor designs. Nuclear power is a carbon-free source of electricity, though not typically labeled as green energy like other renewables.

“Who had ‘restart Three Mile Island’ on their 2025 Bingo card?” questioned Baringa partner David Shepheard. The Pennsylvania plant was the site of the nation’s worst commercial nuclear power accident, in 1979. The Energy Department is loaning $1 billion to help finance a restart.

Everyone loves nuclear, said Darrin Kayser, executive vice president at Edelman. It helps that the technology for small, modular reactors is starting to come to fruition, Kayser added.

Benton Arnett, a senior director at the Nuclear Energy Institute, said that as the need for clean, reliable power intensifies, “we will look back on the actions being taken now as laying the foundation."

The Trump administration also supports geothermal energy, and the tax bill largely preserved geothermal tax credits. The Geothermal Rising association said technologies continue to mature and produce, making 2025 a breakthrough year.

The base of a cooling tower at Constellation's nuclear power plant stands on Three Mile Island near Middletown, Pa., June 25, 2025. AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough, File

Offshore wind had a terrible year

Momentum for offshore wind in the United States came to a grinding halt just as the industry was starting to gain traction, said Joey Lange, a senior managing director at Trio, a global sustainability and energy advisory company.

The Trump administration stopped construction on major offshore wind farms, revoked wind energy permits and paused permitting, canceled plans to use large areas of federal waters for new offshore wind development and stopped federal funding for offshore wind projects.

That has decimated the projects, developers and tech innovators, and no one in wind is raising or spending capital, said Eric Fischgrund, founder and CEO at FischTank PR. Still, Fischgrund said he remains optimistic because the world is transitioning to cleaner energy.
More clean energy needed in 2026

An energy strategy with a diverse mix of sources is the only way forward as demand grows from data centres and other sources, and as people demand affordable, reliable electricity, said former Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu. Landrieu, now with Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future, said promoting or punishing specific energy technologies on ideological grounds is unsustainable.

Experts expect solar and battery storage to continue growing in 2026 to add a lot of power to the grid quickly and cheaply. The market will continue to ensure that most new electricity is renewable, said Amanda Levin, policy analysis director at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Hillary Bright, executive director of Turn Forward, thinks offshore wind will still play an important role too. It is both ready and needed to help address the demand for electricity in the new year, which will become increasingly clear "to all audiences”, she said. Turn Forward advocates for offshore wind.

That skyrocketing demand "is shaking up the political calculus that drove the administration’s early policy decisions around renewables,” she said.

BlueWave CEO Sean Finnerty thinks that states, feeling the pressure to deliver affordable, reliable electricity, will increasingly drive clean energy momentum in 2026 by streamlining permitting and the process of connecting to the grid, and by reducing costs for things like permits and fees.

Ed Gunn, Lunar Energy's vice president for revenue, said the industry has weathered tough years before.

“The fundamentals are unchanged," Gunn said, "there is massive value in clean energy.”