Global economy wavers as world comes to standstillamid epidemic 

AFP/File / STRDeserted streets in Wuhan, China reflect an economy at a standstill

The world is coming to a standstill as the new coronavirus spreads: schools have closed in Japan, rallies are banned in Switzerland and flights are canceled worldwide.

That is putting the global economy at the greatest risk of recession since the 2008 financial crisis.

"With the partial exception of the Black Death in 14th century Europe, every major pandemic has been followed by an economic recession," said Professor Robert Dingwall, researcher at the University of Nottingham Trent in England.

"I don't think there is any good reason to think it would be different this time."

Long before the outbreak, the International Monetary Fund cautioned that the global economy was "fragile" and beset by risks, and even the expected slow growth could falter if one of the risks materialized.

Economists warn the coronavirus could provide just such a shock, especially since despite the emergency measures to try to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, it has been expanding daily, moving outwards from central China where it erupted in December.

As of January, production plants had been shut down in China and entire cities confined. Saudi Arabia has stopped pilgrims from traveling to Mecca, and on Friday, the iconic Baselworld watch fair was canceled, as was the Geneva auto show.

Football matches are played without spectators and behind closed doors in Italy, while uncertainty hangs over the Olympic Games set to open in Tokyo in July.

Over 84,000 people have been infected with the virus worldwide, and 2,800 have died, according to data from official sources compiled by AFP.

- Fatal blow -

All eyes are now on the United States. Though largely unscathed so far, health officials say an outbreak is inevitable.

AFP/File / Johannes EISELEGlobal stock markets have been in free fall amid hints of panic

If excess caution takes hold in the world's largest economy, especially among American consumers, it could be a fatal blow to growth.

As President Donald Trump blamed the media for exaggerating the danger, others worried about the real impacts.

If there is an outbreak, "the reaction is likely to be extreme," said Gregory Daco, chief economist of Oxford Economics.

"It would have a very, very negative impact. The economy would fall into recession immediately," he told AFP.

And in this crisis, the financial markets "accelerate the feeling of panic." Wall Street ended the week with losses not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Beyond shuttering production, closings schools or forcing employees to telework, consumption, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, would come to a screeching halt.

While officials have confirmed only 15 cases in the United States -- just three of which are not related to travel -- anxiety about the illness is apparent: in Washington, people are reluctant to shake hands during conferences, subway users eye their coughing neighbors, and Americans are postponing their travel.

And if the US economy sneezes, the world will catch a cold.

The IMF already lowered its global growth forecast for 2020, taking into account the impact on China, the world's second-largest economy, but that was before the contagion spread to the rest of the world.

"There's a lot that we don't know," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters this week. "It's fast-moving. We are still learning."

The fund is still deciding what to do about the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank, the semi-annual gathering of officials.

The meetings draw thousands of participants from all over the world, but it seems unlikely they will be held in their usual format in Washington.

- Fear and loathing -

Faced with "an obvious economic hit to both production and consumption... we need clear, confident and unified professional and political leadership," Dingwall said.

However, that is "always difficult to achieve in a country where responsibility for public health is as decentralized as it is in the US."

JIJI PRESS/AFP/File / STRSchools in Japan have been closed, but that could be counterproductive

And the British researcher cautions it is hard to manage public fear in the "raucous" US political atmosphere.

Barry Glassner, a retired American sociologist and author of a book The Culture of Fear, stressed that "nations and individuals need to take precautions, and among those should be counteracting fear."

Fears about the epidemic are "spreading at least as fast as is the virus itself and is potentially more dangerous," which could lead to less rational responses and behavior.

Rosemary Taylor, a professor at Tufts University who is an expert in epidemics, said minimizing the threat risks failing to prepare the public.

"I think the potential threat at the moment is not that the US is instituting draconian measures, but that is it is doing too little."

 

THE ECONOMIC GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD IS NOT DRIVEN BY MANUFACTURING, FINANCIAL SPECULATION, OR TECHNOLOGY IT IS CONSUMER SPENDING, YOU, ME AND OUR CREDIT CARDS, CAR PAYMENTS, MORTGAGES, ETC.

AND OUR WILLINGNESS TO BORROW AND GET INTO DEBT IN A LOW INTEREST RATE ECONOMY. AND IF SOMETHING STOPS OR RESTRICTS THAT THEN THE ECONOMY BOTTOMS. THAT IS WHAT WE LEARNED THIS WEEK.


WE ARE THE PROFIT MAKERS NOT THE PROFIT TAKERS

WHETHER WE WORK OR CONSUME POST MODERN REIFICATION MEANS THE MEDIA AND STATE SEPARATE US INTO WORKERS/WORKING CLASS AND CONSUMERS, AS IF WE ARE DIFFERENT INDIVIDUALS OCCUPYING THE SAME SOCIAL SPACE 

THIS IS A POST WWII SOCIALLY CONSTRUCTED SCHIZOPHRENIA, NO WONDER WE GO MAD 

WHETHER WE WORK OR JUST CONSUME BOTH PRODUCE PROFIT FOR THE PROFIT TAKERS. THUS THERE IS NO REAL UNEMPLOYMENT UNDER CAPITALISM
BECAUSE WE ARE ALL WAGE SLAVES OF ONE KIND OR ANOTHER BEHOLDING TO THE MAN.

Syria's Kafranbel: from witty protests to recapture

AFP / Omar HAJ KADOURA Syrian man in military fatigues rides a motorbike by a mural-covered wall in the deserted city of Kafranbel, south of Idlib city amid an ongoing pro-regime offensive

The Syrian town of Kafranbel was long a symbol of humourous defiance to Damascus, famed for its witty posters, murals and cartoons, so its recapture by regime forces spells a heavy blow, activists say.

Kafranbel this week became the latest to be seized in a blistering government onslaught against the last rebel bastion in northwestern Syria.

The town in Idlib province bordering Turkey was one of the first to join the revolutionary fervour that swept Syria in 2011.

AFP / Omar HAJ KADOURA Turkey-backed Syrian fighter fires a truck-mounted gun in Idlib province in northwestern Syria

Ibrahim Sweid, 31, said he was at the first protest in Kafranbel in April 2011, just weeks after the uprising kicked off against President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

The town was once "the icon of the revolution, its resounding lute, the spark of the uprising in the Syrian north", he said.

"Our aim was first and foremost to bring down Assad's regime."

Sweid was among activists who set up the town's media office to document protests and then the bombardment as the country slid into civil war.

But today its members are long gone -- displaced, in exile, or killed.

AFP / Omar HAJ KADOURSyrian Bilal Bayush, 27, displays a picture of him during the 2011 uprising in the town of Kafranbel

Among those lost are Raed Fares, a charismatic cartoonist and radio host who was killed by unknown gunmen in 2018.

He and others had made the town famous for the witty slogans and giant political cartoons they held up in Arabic and English at the town's demonstrations.

- 'Fallen to the enemy' -

AFP / Omar HAJ KADOURA mural inspired by the 2011 Syrian uprising in the deserted city of Kafranbel

Sweid, his wife and three children fled 10 months ago after the Russia-backed regime increased its bombardment of the town.

But he returned from time to time, witnessing the town slowly sink into rubble, continuing to work as a journalist for a local television channel.

Only last Tuesday, he crouched on its outskirts, watching helplessly from afar as the missiles rained down.

"I left the area when I was sure it had fallen to the enemy. I looked at it one last time and left it at one o'clock in the morning," he said.

"After nine years of revolution, Kafranbel was occupied -- a town that had managed to give a voice to Syrians worldwide with its cartoons and signs."

In 2012, Kafranbel was rocked by fighting between regime fighters and defectors from Assad's army, before it slipped out of the government's control.

Sweid said he remembers filming the joy of residents -- including the late Raed Fares -- that summer.

"But now Raed's dead and so is Kafranbel," he said.

AFP / Omar HAJ KADOURAn aerial picture of the deserted Syrian city of Kafranbel

A town of some 20,000 people, Kafranbel stood out among its neighbours for its creative approach to activism.

"I have a dream. Let freedom ring from Kafranbel," read one sign in 2012 in English, playing on the town's name and echoing the words of Martin Luther King.

A poster the same year complained of congested skies, and demanded that policemen regulate the traffic of the warplanes overhead.

- 'All ended with Kafranbel' -

By 2015, Kafranbel was part of a large region under the control of opposition forces.

AFP / Omar HAJ KADOURA mural inspired by the 2011 Syrian uprising in the deserted city of Kafranbel

Two years later, it was overrun by the jihadists of Syria's former Al-Qaeda affiliate who still dominate the wider region today.

Fares said at the time he founded Fresh FM in 2013 to counter "fundamentalist narratives" in Idlib. After that, he was repeatedly targeted by armed groups.

When extremists tried to ban music, the activist responded by airing clucking chickens.

A first wave of residents fled the town last year, while others held out before joining the exodus over the past few months.

AFP / Omar HAJ KADOURA first wave of residents fled the town last year, while others held out before joining the exodus over the past few months

The onslaught on the wider region since December has displaced almost 950,000 people from their homes, more than half of them children, the United Nations says.

Bilal Bayush, 27, said Kafranbel over the past two months had become uninhabitable.

"If you were sick, there was nowhere to be treated or to buy medicine," said the father of two.

"Not a pillar has been left standing. My house is probably destroyed," said the activist, who was arrested as a student at Aleppo University before joining other citizen journalists in Kafranbel.

"For every event in Kafranbel, you'd see a cartoon on the walls of Kafranbel, a sign at its protests," he said.

Today nothing is left but memories.

"We use to sing and laugh for the revolution... It all ended with Kafranbel."

27FEB2020

 

   

 

 

Myanmar's last generation of tattooed headhunters

AFP / Ye Aung THUMany of the Naga tribes in Myanmar's far north have grisly histories

Ngon Pok remembers his father and grandfather returning triumphantly to his tribal village in Myanmar's far north with a human head -- and the agony of the tattoo he was given to celebrate their victory.

He is a proud member of the Lainong, one of dozens of Naga tribes -- many with grisly histories -- wedged in a semi-autonomous zone near the Indian border.

Ngon Pok, who believes he's around 80, gestures to his six-year-old grandson, saying he must have been about the same age when he received his tattoo.

AFP / Ye Aung THUNaga tribes in Myanmar's far north subscribe to a complex patchwork of customs, blending animist beliefs with various forms of Christianity brought by missionaries in recent decades -- and intertwining their warrior traditions

"People had to catch me and hold me down," he tells AFP, removing his jumper to reveal his chest adorned with parallel, vertical stripes and two warrior figures.

Tribes and villages commonly waged war over land, and there are reports of warriors hacking off their enemies' heads for trophies as late as the 1960s.

To celebrate, a thorn would be used to drive tree sap under the warrior's skin to ink a permanent reminder of his headhunting prowess -- and his family would often follow suit.

Ngon Pok's wife, aged about 75, says she chose to have the geometric designs etched on her arms, legs and face as a teenager.

AFP / Ye Aung THUThe Naga tribes in Myanmar's far north would use a thorn to drive tree sap under the warrior's skin to ink a permanent reminder of his headhunting prowess -- and his family would often follow suit

"It was so painful," Khamyo Pon Nyun remembers, hoisting up her skirt to expose her legs.

"But I told myself if my mum and my aunts could do it then so could I," she says, adding with a smile that -- unlike her husband -- she did not need to be restrained to withstand the pain.

- Naga nationalism -

The Naga consist of dozens of tribes in a region so isolated that neighbouring villages often speak completely different languages and dialects.

AFP / Ye Aung THUFor the Naga in Myanmar's far north, tattoos can signify tribal identity, life accomplishments or the completion of a rite of passage

Divided between India and Myanmar by a border many deem as artificial, today a proud sense of nationalism unites the disparate tribes.

This is one of the poorest corners of Myanmar, where many must walk for days to reach the nearest town, few children progress beyond primary school education and only 40 percent of villages boast electricity.

People subscribe to a complex patchwork of customs, blending animist beliefs with various forms of Christianity brought by missionaries in recent decades -- and intertwining their warrior traditions.

AFP / Ye Aung THUThe Naga live in one of the poorest corners of Myanmar, where many must walk for days to reach the nearest town

American anthropologist and author Lars Krutak has travelled the world studying tribal tattoos, including among the Naga.

"What strikes me as unique is the diversity of Naga tattooing patterns," he says, adding there are more than 20 tribes that tattoo across both sides of the border.

They can signify tribal identity, life accomplishments or the completion of a rite of passage.

In some cases, people believed they would need the designs to transition to the afterlife, Krutak explains.

- Gory tradition -

One of the most feared tribes was the Konyak, now divided between India and Myanmar, their villages so remote Christianity only made inroads here in the 1970s.

AFP / Ye Aung THUTribes and villages in Myanmar's far north commonly waged war over land, and there are reports of warriors hacking off their enemies' heads for trophies as late as the 1960s

The Konyak village of Longwa actually straddles the border, set on a high ridge commanding a view of both countries and is the seat of the tribe's king, whose house symbolically lies directly on the frontier.

Only a handful of the village's former headhunting warriors remain, sporting formidable tattoos that cover much of their faces in dark blue ink with skull-like patches left bare around the eyes.

Houn Ngo Kaw, 75, claims he helped put an end to the gory tradition in his village after he converted to Christianity in 1978 and admits "it's better now."

AFP / Ye Aung THUFew among the Naga in Myanmar's far north seem to lament the passing of a tattooing tradition that will soon be lost forever

Younger generations of Naga rarely wear the traditional tattoos associated with headhunting, but there are exceptions.

Ku Myo, 35, says her parents were less than impressed after she came home aged 15 with her face tattooed.

"I did it without them knowing and they beat me when they found out," she says, admitting she too would be furious if her children exhibited the same rebellious streak.

But few seem to lament the passing of a tradition that will soon be lost forever.

"I wanted to be one of the last tattooed warriors and I am," Konyak elder Houn Ngo Kaw says with a huge grin.

"Of course I'm happy."

Maldives gets Amal Clooney to fight for Rohingya at UN court

AFP / Tolga AKMENHuman rights lawyer Amal Clooney will represent the Maldives at the UN's highest court in the Rohingya case

The luxury tourist destination of the Maldives has hired prominent human rights lawyer Amal Clooney to represent it at the UN's highest court in seeking justice for Myanmar's persecuted Rohingya Muslims.

The Maldivian government said Wednesday it will formally join the mainly Muslim African state of The Gambia in challenging Myanmar's 2017 military crackdown that sent around 740,000 Rohingya fleeing into neighbouring Bangladesh.

In a unanimous ruling last month, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Buddhist-majority Myanmar to implement emergency measures to prevent the genocide of Rohingya -- pending a full case that could take years.

Clooney successfully represented former Maldives president Mohamed Nasheed and secured a UN decision that his 2015 jailing for 13 years was illegal.

With the fall of strongman president Abdulla Yameen in 2018, Nasheed as well as several other dissidents in the Sunni Muslim nation of 340,000 have been cleared of any wrongdoing.

Nasheed is currently the atoll nation's speaker in the national legislature.

The government said it welcomed the ICJ's decision to order provisional measures to secure the rights of victims in Myanmar and prevent the destruction of evidence in the ongoing case.

"Accountability for genocide in Myanmar is long overdue and I look forward to working on this important effort to seek judicial remedies for Rohingya survivors," Clooney was quoted as saying by the Maldivian government.

Thousands are suspected to have been killed in the Rohingya crackdown and refugees brought widespread reports of rape and arson by Myanmar's military and local Buddhist militias.

Moscow police seize homemade 'Batmobile'

Russian Interior Ministry/AFP / HandoutThis handout photo from Russian Interior Ministry taken on February 22, 2020 shows Russian traffic policemen standing next to a vehicle in Moscow that bears a striking resemblance to the "Batmobile"

A homemade vehicle bearing a striking resemblance to the "Batmobile" featured in a recent Batman film has been seized in central Moscow, Russia's interior ministry announced.

Traffic police brought the all-black, lowrider vehicle with giant wheels to a screeching halt as it cruised down one of the main roads into the city centre on Saturday evening.

They impounded the car, styled after the famous car belonging to the superhero and owned by a 32-year-old Muscovite.

The "Batmobile" owner faces fines for numerous violations before being allowed to get his car back.

Police said Tuesday that the vehicle was assembled illegally at a private workshop, is not registered as a vehicle and does not adhere to road safety standards, as well as being supersized for a standard car at six metres (20 feet) long.

The car was built in the United States, then customised in Russia at an auto tuning workshop called Fast Boom Pro, whose logo is visible in a police video, Russian auto sites reported.

The workshop turned it into the spitting image of the vehicle featured in the 2016 film "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice".

The replica car was reportedly put on sale in Russia in October last year for 55 million rubles ($842,100).

It was described as armoured and equipped with a night-vision camera, a thermal imaging camera, a laser-aiming device and a model gun that imitates the sound of shooting.

Norway authorizes demolition of building with Picasso murals

AFP/File / ODD ANDERSENPicasso's 'The Fisherman' adorns a wall of the Y-block in Oslo which is to be demolished

Norway gave the go-ahead on Wednesday for the demolition of a bomb-damaged building adorned with drawings by Spanish master painter Pablo Picasso.

The government, which ruled out a further postponement to the 2014 decision to demolish the building, has said it would relocate the two Picasso murals.

Completed in 1969 in the centre of Oslo, the "Y block", named for its shape, bears drawings by Picasso sandblasted on its walls - the work of Norwegian artist Carl Nesjar, who collaborated with the Spanish master painter.

Previously the home of a government ministry, the building was damaged in the deadly bomb attack carried out by right-wing extremist Anders Behring Breivik on 22 July 2011, before he went on to carry out a mass shooting on the island of Utoya, killing a combined 77 people.

In 2014, Norway decided to demolish the building for security reasons as part of a major reconstruction project, and decided to relocate the murals "The Fishermen" and "The Seagull."

Anther building, "H block", which was also damaged in the blast and has three other Picasso murals, will not be destroyed.

The 2014 decision to knock down "Y block" provoked a backlash among champions of architectural heritage and the ensuing public outcry saw a delay to the demolition.

Three organisations and associations announced on February 13 their intention to take the state to court and asked the government to postpone the demolition until the court had ruled on the matter.

On Wednesday, the government rejected this request, arguing that further delays would lead to financial cost as well as the postponement of the reconstruction project which has already been decided.

SCANPIX NORWAY/AFP/File / STORLØKKEN, AAGENorwegian artist Carl Nesjar (left) sandblasting one of Pablo Picassos works into the concrete during the construction of the Y-block in Oslo

The ministry of local government and modernisation said in a statement that the agency in charge of managing the state's real estate assets, Statsbygg, had been given the "assignment to start preparation work for the demolition of the Y block."

No starting date has been set, but postponing the implementation of the measure beyond April 1 would cost between 30 and 50 million Norwegian kroner ($3.2 million to 5.3 million or 2.9 million to 4.9 million euros) per month, according to Statsbygg.

A petition launched a year ago to stop the demolition of "Y block" had gathered nearly 28,000 signatures by midday on Wednesday.

OIL DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL WARMING

Cannibalism on rise among polar bears, say Russian scientists

RUSSIAN ARCTIC NATIONAL PARK/AFP / Handout

Russians living in Arctic settlements have sounded the alarm over dozens of bears entering areas of human habitation, particularly to raid rubbish dumps for food

Cases of polar bears killing and eating each other are on the rise in the Arctic as melting ice and human activity erode their habitat, a Russian scientist said Wednesday.

"Cases of cannibalism among polar bears are a long-established fact, but we're worried that such cases used to be found rarely while now they are recorded quite often," said polar bear expert Ilya Mordvintsev, quoted by Interfax news agency.

"We state that cannibalism in polar bears is increasing," said Mordvintsev, a senior researcher at Moscow's Severtsov Institute of Problems of Ecology and Evolution.

Speaking at a presentation in the northwestern city of Saint Petersburg, he suggested that the behaviour could be due to lack of food.

"In some seasons there is not enough food and large males attack females with cubs," he said.

The rise in cases may also be partly due to more people working in the Arctic and reporting such behaviour, he said.

AFP / Adrian LeungPolar bears face uncertain future


"Now we get information not only from scientists but also from the growing number of oil workers and defence ministry employees."

This winter the area from the Gulf of Ob to the Barents Sea, where polar bears used to hunt, is now a busy route for ships carrying LNG (liquefied natural gas), Mordvintsev said.

"The Gulf of Ob was always a hunting ground for the polar bear. Now it has broken ice all year round," he said, linking this to active gas extraction on the huge Yamal peninsula that borders the Gulf of Ob, and the launch of an Arctic LNG plant.

- Quitting normal hunting grounds -

Russia, already a key global oil and gas exporter, is keen to develop its LNG potential in the Arctic. It has also significantly upgraded its military facilities there.

Another Russian scientist, Vladimir Sokolov, who has led numerous expeditions by the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, based in Saint Petersburg, said this year polar bears had mainly been affected by abnormally warm weather on Spitsbergen Island to the west in Norway's Svalbard archipelago, where there have been no ice floes and little snow.



Russian researchers have recorded growing numbers of polar bears moving away from their traditional hunting grounds as ice melts due to global warming.

Over the last quarter-century, Arctic ice levels by the end of summer have fallen by 40 percent, said Sokolov. He predicted that polar bears would eventually no longer hunt on sea ice and be confined to shore areas and high-latitude archipelagos.

Russians living in Arctic settlements have sounded the alarm over dozens of bears entering areas of human habitation, particularly to raid rubbish dumps for food.