Tuesday, April 11, 2023

U$A FOR PROFIT HEALTHCARE

Audio-only telehealth remains common at safety net clinics

Trend raises questions about quality of care and equity for low-income patients

RAND CORPORATION

More than two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, audio-only telehealth visits for both primary care and mental health services remained common at safety net clinics in California, according to a new RAND Corporation study.

Although audio-only visits have declined since their peak early in the pandemic, the study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that in August 2022 audio-only visits still accounted for 1 in 5 primary care visits and 2 in 5 behavioral health visits among people who received care at Federally Qualified Health Centers in California.

Researchers say the higher rates of audio-only telehealth in safety net settings raises questions about the quality of care and equity for low-income patients, since the effectiveness of audio-only telehealth has not been established.

“It is likely that these safety net clinics continued to deliver audio-only visits in high volume because of their role in improving access to health services,” said Lori Uscher-Pines, lead author of the study and a senior policy researcher at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. “Our study raises important questions about what kind of role we want audio-only visits playing in the care of disadvantaged populations and the public in general going forward.”

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted many payers to begin reimbursing safety net clinics for telehealth services provided through video or audio-only technology. Previously, the clinics rarely received payment for telehealth services delivered directly to patients.

RAND researchers examined the experiences of 30 multisite Federally Qualified Health Centers in California that provide care for 1.3 million lower-income people. Many of the clinics are located in rural areas of the state. The study included information about billable in-person and telehealth (video and audio-only) visits from February 2019 to August 2022.

The study found that that number of primary care visits increased by 8.5% from February 2020 to August 2022, while the number of total behavioral visits increased 23% during the same period. The increases are likely the result of being able to widely offer telehealth services, even as the clinics lost staff members.

Researchers found that audio-only telehealth visits for primary care services peaked in April 2020, while audio-only visits for behavioral health peaked in March 2021.

Within primary care, the decline in audio-only visits from the early pandemic peak appears to coincide with the return of in-person visits rather than growth in video visits.

For primary care, the proportion of in-person visits increased from 30% in April 2020 to 71% by August of 2022. Over the same period, audio-only visits decreased from 67% to 21%, while video visits increased from 4% to 7%.

For behavioral health, the proportion of in-person visits increased from 20% in April 2020 to 37% in August 2022. During that period, audio-only visits for behavioral health care decreased from 74% to 39%, while video visits increased from 8% to 23%.

Researchers say that Federally Qualified Health Centers’ continued use of audio-only telehealth may be a result of the clinics and their patients not having access to the technology needed for video telehealth. In addition, since California’s Medicaid program (Medi-Cal) granted permanent payment parity for audio-only visits, there are no financial incentives for the clinics to limit audio-only visits.

“It appears likely that audio only visits in these settings will remain widespread in coming years,” Uscher-Price said. “More research is needed on the effectiveness of audio-only visits to inform their use in safety net settings.”

Funding for the research was provided by the California Health Care Foundation.

Other authors of the study are Colleen M. McCullough, Jessica L. Sousa Sarita D. Lee, Allison J. Ober, Kandice A. Kapinos, all of RAND; and Diana Camacho of the California Health Care Foundation.

RAND Health Care promotes healthier societies by improving health care systems in the United States and other countries.

JOURNAL

Journal of the American Medical Association

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Changes in In-Person, Audio-Only, and Video Visits in California’s Federally Qualified Health Centers, 2019-2022

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

11-Apr-2023

Tailings dams degrade the upstream variety and abundance of fish species

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KEAI COMMUNICATIONS CO., LTD.

A well preserved stream affected by TSD — IMAGE: A WELL PRESERVED STREAM AFFECTED BY TSD view more
CREDIT: THE AUTHORS

Streams are complex habitats that can be affected by changes further upstream or downstream. Even small dams and reservoirs can modify significant ecological processes, such as fish migration and colonization.

Tailings storage dams (TSDs) have been known to have an adverse effect on water quality; however, their implications on upstream fish assemblages have yet to be determined.

A team of researchers, led by Gilberto Salvador from the Federal University of Pará, Biological Sciences Institute, postulate there are at least three aspects that need to be considered: life-cycle disruption, species intolerance or tolerance to lentic conditions, and non-native species.

In their latest study conducted in the Rio Doce basin in Brazil, the researchers found that streams flowing into TSDs had fewer catfish species, including fewer armored catfish and fewer small predaceous catfish common to steep-slope streams. The findings are published in Water Biology and Security.

To collect fish, the team used standard methods in 24 sites, half draining to TSDs (dammed) and half free from this impact (undammed). To identify differences between treatments, they used permutational multivariate analysis of variance, or PERMANOVA, to test both environmental variables and the assemblages of fish in each waterbody, and evaluated the biological metrics that most influenced assemblage composition change.

“Despite natural forest cover in most of the catchment area we observed a decrease in these species that rely on stream continuity and high-quality water," explained Salvador. "In comparison, two other widely tolerant species had increased in numbers along with one species commonly found in TSDs."

The team attributed this to re-colonization barriers created by TSDs, as well as colonization sources for tolerant species.

“Our findings underscore the need to consider downstream alterations caused by TSDs when assessing reference conditions for biomonitoring and bioassessment studies," concluded Salvador.

###

Contact the corresponding author: Gilberto Nepomuceno Salvador - curimata_gilbert@hotmail.com

The publisher KeAi was established by Elsevier and China Science Publishing & Media Ltd to unfold quality research globally. In 2013, our focus shifted to open access publishing. We now proudly publish more than 100 world-class, open access, English language journals, spanning all scientific disciplines. Many of these are titles we publish in partnership with prestigious societies and academic institutions, such as the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC).

JOURNAL

Water Biology and Security

DOI

10.1016/j.watbs.2023.100136

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Mine tailings storage dams modify upstream headwater fish assemblages

The people who built Singapore

A tale (almost) as old as CHIJMES; New publication makes known the untold stories behind Singapore’s multi-storied cityscape.

Book Announcement

WORLD SCIENTIFIC

The History of Chartered Surveyors in Singapore, The First Hundred Years: 1868-1968 — IMAGE: COVER FOR "THE HISTORY OF CHARTERED SURVEYORS IN SINGAPORE, THE FIRST HUNDRED YEARS: 1868-1968" view more
CREDIT: WORLD SCIENTIFIC

Singapore citizens, residents and foreigners working in Singapore experience the splendour and magnificence of the Singapore-built environment every day. When recognising the beauty of the Raffles Hotel, the size and complexity of the Marina Bay Sands complex or the efficiency of Singapore’s built infrastructure, most people associate their creation with the skills of architects and engineers. However, few know of the feats and achievements of the chartered surveyors that made them possible.

The History of Chartered Surveyors in Singapore tells the fascinating histories of individual chartered surveyors in Singapore over the first hundred years since the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors was founded in 1868, and explains the role these individuals played in the development of Singapore. The book will also tell the stories of the pioneer Singaporean Chartered Surveyors from 1941 onwards, many of whom studied overseas but returned to Singapore where they played important roles in the real estate industry over many decades (and still do to this day).

During the period of time covered by this book, the role of the chartered surveyor was integral to the creation of a successful and sustainable urban environment. Chartered surveyors played an important role in the development and transformation of Singapore. The story of these chartered surveyors is largely unrecognised, so the aim of this book is to redress the balance, given that they paved the way for future generations of Singaporeans to become chartered surveyors.

From the second half of the 19th Century through to the 1920s, chartered surveyors in Singapore were mostly British “expatriates” or military personnel with a small number of Eurasians. However, after a period in the 1940s and 1950s when local talent struggled to break through the expatriate stranglehold on the profession, the mix from 1958 onwards was much more diverse, and there have been well-known (and many less well-known) Singaporean chartered surveyors who played a key role in the development of today’s Singapore.

The research conducted to produce this book is solely the work of the author. Furthermore, the views expressed in this book are solely those of the author in his private capacity and do not in any way represent the views of the RICS, the National Heritage Board of Singapore or any Government agencies. However, the author would like to thank the National Heritage Board of Singapore in particular, for their grant assistance and support (along with the National Archives of Singapore) in producing this book.

The History of Chartered Surveyors in Singapore, The First Hundred Years: 1868–1968 retails for US$158/ £140 (hardcover) and is also available in electronic formats. To order or know more about the book, visit http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/13202.

###

About the Author

William James (‘Bill’) Jones is a Singapore Permanent Resident. He qualified as a Chartered Valuation Surveyor in 1986 whilst working in private practice in the northwest of England. He joined Royal Dutch Shell Plc in January 2002 and through Shell he came to work, live, and settle permanently in Singapore. In March 2008, he first became directly involved in Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Singapore activity as the inaugural RICS Singapore Working Group Chair (2008–09) as well as being the RICS Singapore representative on the RICS Asia-Pacific Board, later known as the RICS Asia World Regional Board. He was appointed as the full-time Singapore-based RICS Managing Director for the SE-Asia World Region in October 2011, and later became the RICS Director of Standards for the Asia-Pacific World Region. He became an RICS Fellow in 2012 and continues to work in the property industry in Singapore. He is married with two grown-up children and lives in Pasir Ris. He continues his involvement with RICS as an APC Assessor and Licensed Assessor Trainer and Auditor assessor auditor for the Southeast Asia region as well as being a mentor and counsellor to many RICS APC candidates across the Asia-Pacific region. He is also an elected member of the RICS Governing Council for the period from 2020 to 2022.

About World Scientific Publishing Co.

World Scientific Publishing is a leading international independent publisher of books and journals for the scholarly, research and professional communities. World Scientific collaborates with prestigious organisations like the Nobel Foundation and US National Academies Press to bring high quality academic and professional content to researchers and academics worldwide. The company publishes about 600 books and over 160 journals in various fields annually. To find out more about World Scientific, please visit www.worldscientific.com.

For more information, contact WSPC Communications at communications@wspc.com.

DOI

10.1142/13202

Longer shelf life for insulin has major bearing on global health

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG

Gun Forsander — IMAGE: GUN FORSANDER, UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG. view more
CREDIT: PHOTO BY UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG.

An international study shows that it is likely that insulin can be stored at room temperature, and for considerably longer than drug companies have counted on to date. Access to this vital medicine can thereby be significantly improved for the world’s poorest inhabitants. Researchers at the University of Gothenburg are among the scientists presenting these results.

In type 1 diabetes, the insulin-producing beta cells in the pancreas are destroyed. Insulin must be given by injection, daily, for the rest of one’s life. Inadequate insulin treatment impairs metabolism, which can lead to eye damage, kidney failure, or other complications in the long term. In many developing countries, insulin is in short supply and often highly expensive. Globally, millions of people have died prematurely due to unequal access to diabetes care.

Since insulin is temperature-sensitive, it should be refrigerated (at 2–8°C) for long-term storage; but families in many developing countries lack refrigerator access. At room temperature (up to 30°C), insulin is usually thought to keep for some four weeks, after which discarding it is recommended.

Quadrupled storage period

For the present study, a University of Gothenburg research team contributed analyses of six types of insulin. Six different families in Nagpur, India, stored the insulin for a period ranging from one to four months in the summer. It was stored either in a box in the coolest room in the home or in clay pots designed to serve as simple cooling systems, with evaporation of water keeping the contents cool.

One of the authors behind the study is Gun Forsander, researcher in pediatrics at Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, and pediatrician at Sahlgrenska University Hospital.

“This study shows that insulin probably has a considerably longer shelf life at room temperature — up to four times as long as was previously believed. The study also showed that the simple solution, with cooling clay pots, can be helpful when the weather’s at its hottest,” Forsander says.

Increased insulin access

Another research team, at the University of Florida in Gainesville, performed concentration determination of insulin according to standard procedure (liquid chromatography) after room-temperature storage in the Indian households.

The results are published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. The study was led by Dr Graham D Ogle, director of the ‘Life for a Child’ organization and adjunct professor at the University of Sydney, Australia.

“If our results can be confirmed in larger studies, it may drive a change in the requirement to discard insulin kept outside a fridge after one month. The period when insulin may still be used can potentially, in that case, be extended to three or perhaps even four months. That would have a major bearing on the resource-weak families’ access to insulin,” Ogle says.

JOURNAL

The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology

DOI

10.1016/s2213-8587(23)00028-1

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Insulin thermostability in a real-world setting

Male yellow crazy ants are real-life chimeras

Males of the yellow crazy ant have two genomes each in separate cell clusters

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JOHANNES GUTENBERG UNIVERSITAET MAINZ

male yellow crazy ant — IMAGE: A MALE YELLOW CRAZY ANT (ANOPLOLEPIS GRACILIPES) view more
CREDIT: PHOTO/©: HUGO DARRAS

The yellow crazy ant, or Anoplolepis gracilipes, has the infamous distinction of being among the worst invasive species in the world. However, this is not the reason for which this particular ant is studied by a team of international researchers. What interests them is how the insects reproduce, because males of this ant have long perplexed scientists. "The results of previous genetic analyses of the yellow crazy ant have shown that the males of this species have two copies of each chromosome. This was highly unexpected, as males usually develop from unfertilized eggs in ants, bees, and wasps – and thus should only have one maternal copy of each chromosome," explained Dr. Hugo Darras, Assistant Professor at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) and lead author of the corresponding article recently published in Science. "With this in view, we decided to investigate this puzzling phenomenon with subsequent experiments."

Two genomes in different cell clusters

The results were quite extraordinary. It had been assumed to date that the males of the yellow crazy ant carried the same two sets of chromosomes in all cells of their body. However, the team was able to demonstrate that this premise was anything but correct. "We discovered that the male ants have maternal and paternal genomes in different cells of their body and are thus chimeras. To put it another way, all males have two genomes, but each cell of their bodies contains only one or the other of the two genomes," summarized Darras. Normally, in a multicellular life form – be this a human, a dog, or a bat – all cells contain identical genetic material.

The research team concludes that male yellow crazy ants are chimeras: they develop from fertilized eggs in which the two parental gametes do not actually fuse. Instead, the maternal and paternal nuclei divide separately within the same egg, meaning that the resultant adult males have both parental DNA sequences but in different body cells. When the gametes do fuse, either a queen or a worker develops from the egg, depending on the genetic information carried by the sperm. It is yet unknown what mechanisms determine whether fusion of the parental gametes takes place or not.

Chimerism and the yellow crazy ant: A mode of reproduction previously unknown to science

Chimeras are individuals whose cells contain different genetic materials. They naturally occur in certain species, such as corals and angler fish, in which separate individuals can merge to become one. Chimerism can also be found in humans and other placenta mammals. During gestation, mother and fetus can exchange a small number of cells so the offspring usually has a few cells that contain the same genetic material as the mother. Such small-scale exchanges also occur between twins in the womb. "In contrast to these known cases, chimerism in the yellow crazy ant does not result from the fusion of two separate individuals or an exchange of cells between them. Instead, this process has its origin within a single fertilized egg. This is unique," concluded Darras. Hence, the development of the male yellow crazy ant appears to contravene one of the fundamental laws of biological inheritance in which all cells of an individual should contain the same genome.

Two male yellow crazy ants (Anoplolepis gracilipes)

A male yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes)

A longitudinal section of the brain of a chimeric male yellow crazy ant with maternal (pink) and paternal (blue) genomes in situ hybridization: The male tissue consists of large cell clusters carrying only maternal or paternal genomes.

CREDIT

photo/©: Hugo Darras

JOURNAL

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adf0419

ARTICLE TITLE

Obligate chimerism in male yellow crazy ants

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

6-Apr-2023

Microorganism shows potential as an iron biofertilizer for cucumber plants

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CÓRDOBA

Research team — IMAGE: THE RESEARCH TEAM THAT CARRIED OUT THE STUDY view more
CREDIT: UNVERSITY OF CORDOBA

A UCO study shows that the FO12 strain of the Fusarium oxysporum fungus improves cucumber plants' responses to iron deficiencies, promoting their growth without having to resort to environmentally harmful products

Iron is one of the most abundant elements in the Earth's crust, and a key element for crop nutrition. However, incalcareous soils (very abundant in Spain) it is a challenge for plants to obtain iron from the soil, due to its poor solubility and availability. This is when iron deficiencies appear and plants activate different responses, mainly in their roots, to obtain this nutrient.

The research staff at the María de Maeztu Unit of Excellence – Department of Agronomy, University of Córdoba (DAUCO) – working in the Plant Physiology group have been studying these plant responses for decades and looking for strategies that make iron more available to plants, avert iron chlorosis, and increase crop growth.

In the current context of climate change and the search for environmental conservation, it is essential that these solutions be sustainable, avoiding the abuse of chemically synthesized products that are harmful to the environment.

Along this line falls the latest work led by this group in collaboration with the departments of Agricultural Chemistry, Edaphology and Microbiology; Genetics; and Botany, Ecology and Plant Physiology, as well as with the Department of Genetic Improvement of the Institute of Sustainable Agriculture (IAS – CSIC), in which the potential of a microorganism has been proven (the FO12 strain of the Fusarium oxysporumfungus) as a biofertilizer and iron biostimulant.

Although the Fusarium oxysporum fungus is very harmful to many crops, "the FO12 strain is non-pathogenic (does not cause disease) and has proven to be a biocontrol agent against Verticillium dahliae," explains DAUCO professor Javier Romera. The disease-controlling power of this strain was already known thanks to previous work by the Agroforestry Pathology group, and is likely due to the fact that this strain is capable of activating Induced Systemic Resistance (ISR), a kind of immune system that plants have to defend themselves.

The regulation of this defensive response relies on substances such as ethylene and nitric oxide, which are also involved in activating responses to iron deficiency. "As this fungus already induced defensive responses, we thought it could also induce ones to iron deficiency, and that was the idea behind the study, to prove that it also induces them," says researcher Carlos Lucena.

This study, therefore, proves that the FO12 strain improves iron responses to iron deficiency in cucumber plants in calcareous soils. 24 hours after the inoculation of the roots of cucumber plants with this microorganism, results are already seen: genes related to the response to iron deficiency are activated and, after several days of cultivation, the plant's growth increases.

The study was carried out with cucumber plants grown in nutrient solution, "a more artificial system", and also in pots with calcareous soils, under greenhouse conditions "because the idea is that these microorganisms can be applied as biofertilizers favouring the acquisition of iron in those calcareous soils, where there are more problems", Romera explains. The fungus stimulated iron acquisition and plant growth with both cultivation methods.

The use of this type of microorganisms as a biofertilizer, in addition to promoting environmental sustainability, as these are natural elements that avert the use of chemically synthesized fertilizers, helps to regulate communities of soil microorganisms, as their mere presence makes them occupy niches that other pathogenic fungi that produce diseases would otherwise.

"The ultimate goal is to develop a biostimulant that both protects crops from attack by possible pathogens, as well as to improve the ferric nutrition of plants under adverse conditions", says researcher Miguel Ángel Aparicio. The way to make its use a reality in the field is to analyse its effect on other nutrients, such as phosphorus; optimize the treatment doses; and verify the most suitable conditions for its application in the field.

*This work is part of the Doctoral Thesis of researcher Miguel Ángel Aparicio, carried out thanks to a grant from the University of Córdoba Research Plan.

Aparicio, M.A., Lucena, C., García, M.J. et al. The non-pathogenic strain of Fusarium oxysporum FO12 induces Fe deficiency responses in cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) plants. Planta 257, 50 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00425-023-04079-2

JOURNAL

Planta

DOI

10.1007/s00425-023-04079-2

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

The nonpathogenic strain of Fusarium oxysporum FO12 induces Fe deficiency responses in cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) plants

The magnitude of the 2023 Turkish earthquake matches the largest in its history, a new study determined

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KEAI COMMUNICATIONS CO., LTD.

Illustration of the seismic event, station distribution, and coda wave energy — IMAGE: ILLUSTRATION OF THE SEISMIC EVENT, STATION DISTRIBUTION, AND CODA WAVE ENERGY view more
CREDIT: THE AUTHORS

On February 6, 2023, two powerful earthquakes successively occurred in Turkey, resulting in significant damage and loss of life across southeast Turkey and northwest Syria. As a fundamental parameter, their magnitudes are of great interest to the scientific community and the general public at large.

Currently, reported magnitude results for the two events have significant discrepancies, and the difference in magnitude between them is highly uncertain (between 0.1 and 0.4), which requires further revisions.

Aiming to address that gap, a team of researchers led by Professor Xiaodong Song of Peking University used a novel and reliable long-period coda moment magnitude method to measure the magnitudes and relative sizes of the two events.

“The moment magnitudes obtained were 7.95 and 7.86, higher than the other published results," shared Prof Song, who is the corresponding of the paper. "The first mainshock was slightly stronger than the second with an estimated difference of 0.11. This corresponds to one of the largest tremors in over 2,000 years of Turkish history."

Furthermore, the researchers found that the two large earthquakes were rare large continental earthquake doublets—two or more large earthquakes occurring in close proximity and at short time intervals—as such events occasionally occur in subduction zones and rarely on the continent. The pair of earthquakes also appear to be the most powerful doublet ever to occur on land.

The team published their findings in the KeAi journal Earthquake Science.

"Our method specializes in measuring large earthquakes through their long-period energy tens of thousands of seconds post-quake," explained, Xinyu Jiang, lead author of the study and a doctoral student with the study team. "Its advantage lies in relative insensitivity of the coda wave to factors such as source location and Earth heterogeneities, allowing for more accurate and reliable assessments of moment magnitude."

The researchers fitted an effective energy decay model to estimate initial coda energy. The energy was calibrated with fast numerical simulation to extract earthquake size data by eliminating the influence of seismic source and wave propagation complexities.

"Our novel approach has the potential to advance both quake research and disaster response," concluded Prof Song.

###

Contact the corresponding author: Xiaodong Song, xiao.d.song@gmail.com

DOI

10.1016/j.eqs.2023.02.008

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Special focus/Rapid Communication Moment magnitudes of two large Turkish earthquakes on February 6, 2023 from long-period coda

COI STATEMENT

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

The 2022 Durban floods were the most catastrophic yet recorded in KwaZulu-Natal

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND

Durban Floods — IMAGE: THE FLOODS THAT IMPACTED DURBAN IN APRIL 2022 WERE THE MOST CATASTROPHIC YET, RECORDED IN KWAZULU-NATAL. view more
CREDIT: CHANTE SHATZ.

The disastrous flood that hit Durban in April 2022 was the most catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in collective terms of lives lost, homes and infrastructure damaged or destroyed and economic impact.

This is according to a new study by researchers from the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, and the University of Brighton, UK, published in the South African Geographical Journal.

Professor Stefan Grab from Wits University and his colleague, Professor David Nash constructed a geographical history of flooding disasters in KZN by sifting through thousands of archived articles held in old newspapers, colonial and government records, early missionary records, and meteorological records which became available from the 1850s onwards. They define extreme flooding events, where major rivers were overflowing their banks, together with one or more significant consequences, such as the loss of human life, livestock, agricultural fields and crops, and infrastructure such as buildings, roads and bridges.

The study, which reconstructed the history of floods in KZN since the 1840s, confirmed a widely-held – yet anecdotal view – that the April 2022 floods were likely the most catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KZN and that flooding events have doubled over the last century or more.

“Right after the floods, many commentators like the media, some scientists and others were quick to report that the floods were the most severe ever recorded. Our aim was to place the floods into perspective and see if this and other statements related to the disaster were factually correct by building a historic geographic account of past floods and associated extreme rainfall events for the province of KZN and particularly the greater Durban region,” says Grab, lead author of the study.

The scientists found that while the floods were indeed the most catastrophic in terms of lives lost, infrastructure damaged, and economical loss, the flood was not actually the biggest in terms of the area affected, homes destroyed, or the amount of rainfall that fell collectively over a few days.

“When you look at a natural disaster you need to look at it in context. Whether the April 2022 floods were the ‘worst in living memory’ is debatable, as a flooding event in September 1987 affected a larger geographic area of KZN and destroyed more homes than the 2022 event,” says Grab. Similarly, a catastrophic flooding event in Durban, 1856 – also in April – produced a greater quantity of rainfall over a three-day period than last year’s floods.

In April 2022, the KZN coastal zone, including the greater Durban area and South Coast, received more than 300mm of rain in 24 hours. This led to calamitous flooding, with 459 people losing their lives and 88 people still missing by the end of May 2022. Over 4000 homes were destroyed, 40 000 people left homeless, and 45 000 people were temporarily left unemployed. The cost of infrastructure and business losses amounted to an estimated US$2 billion.

In April 1856, 303mm of rain fell in Durban over 24 hours, and a record of 691mm over a three-day period from April 14 to 16. During these historic floods, an unknown number of people drowned, the entire central area of Durban was flooded, bridges were destroyed and roads were closed for several days, cutting off all communication with other parts of the country. The floods extended inland to Howick and the Umgeni bridge was swept away. Over a 16km stretch of beach between the mouths of the Umgeni and Umhlanga rivers, 200 drowned oxen were deposited.

“It is difficult to compare the two floods in terms of which was the most severe. We must recognize that back in 1856 Durban was only a town with a much smaller population and economic infrastructure to that of today, and thus the percentage of individuals impacted or percentage economic loss may well have been greater back in 1856. In addition, coping mechanisms and ‘outside’ support would have been far more restricted during the 19th century,” says Grab.

It is highly likely that recent anthropogenically-induced global climate warming has contributed to trends of increased flooding as we have demonstrated here, and this trend is likely to continue so in the foreseeable future. However, it is also important to recognize that catastrophic climate events such as severe floods are not temporally restricted to a ‘warmer world’ as the 1856 floods happened during a much colder climatic period.

“With regards flood disasters – history is repeating itself. We need to prepare for bigger rainfall events in our cities, and that doesn’t just apply to Durban, it applies to all South African cities and towns. We must get our infrastructure, especially drainage systems, in order. It is urgent that we better prepare ourselves for the heavy rainfall and flood events that are guaranteed to come in times ahead,” says Grab.

The research was funded by The Leverhulme Trust with further support from the University of the Witwatersrand.

JOURNAL

South African Geographical Journal

DOI

10.1080/03736245.2023.2193758

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Literature review

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

A new flood chronology for KwaZulu-Natal (1836–2022): the April 2022 Durban floods in historical context

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

11-Apr-2023

COI STATEMENT

N/A