South Sudan risks return to war after opposition leader's arrest, UN warns

The political party of South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar has warned that his arrest on Wednesday invalidates the country's 2018 peace deal.

Issued on: 27/03/2025 - RFI

South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar at a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Juba in February 2023. AFP - SIMON MAINA

First Vice President Riek Machar, South Sudan's opposition leader, is reportedly under house arrest.

Machar's Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) party said that it was trying to locate him, after that the defence minister and chief of national security "forcefully entered" Machar's residence and delivered an arrest warrant on Wednesday evening.

Machar was then held at his house overnight with his wife and two bodyguards.

He is accused of being implicated in fighting between the military and the White Army, an ethnic Nuer militant organisation, in Nasir, Upper Nile State this month, senior SPLM-IO official Reath Muoch Tang said in a statement.




The party added on Thursday that the arrest of Machar, long-time rival to President Salva Kiir, had invalidated the 2018 peace deal and risked plunging the country back into war.

Uganda army chief says troops deployed to South Sudan's capital

Under the deal, which ended the 2013 to 2018 civil war between forces loyal to Machar on one side and Kiir on the other, South Sudan has five vice-presidents. Machar is currently serving as first vice-president.

The United Nations has warned that the recent clashes in Nasir between the army and the White Army, a militia with historical ties to Machar, along with a rise in hate speech, could reignite the civil war.

Machar's SPLM-IO party denies ongoing links with the White Army.

South Sudan's army and government spokespeople did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Rumours of Machar's imminent arrest have been rife since early March, according to RFI's correspondent in the country, when the crisis in the Upper Nile region in the northeast of the country led to the arrest of several officials from his party in Juba.
Calls for dialogue

The UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) on Wednesday called for "an immediate cessation of hostilities and urgent dialogue between the country’s leaders to de-escalate tensions and restore calm".

"To prevent a relapse into civil war, the parties must recommit to the Revitalised Peace Agreement by ceasing all hostilities and strictly adhering to the ceasefire, resolving grievances through dialogue, and reconvening as a truly unified government,” said the head of UNMISS, Nicholas Haysom, in a statement.

He warned that "a return to widespread conflict... will devastate not only South Sudan, but the entire region".

Earlier this month, Kiir's government detained several officials from Machar's party, including the petroleum minister and the deputy head of the army, in response to the clashes with the White Army in Upper Nile State.

UN Security Council extends South Sudan arms embargo

The United States on Thursday called on Kiir to release his rival. "We are concerned by reports South Sudan's First Vice President Machar is under house arrest," Washington's Bureau of African Affairs wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

"We urge President Kiir to reverse this action and prevent further escalation of the situation. It is time for South Sudan's leaders to demonstrate sincerity of stated commitments to peace," the post continued.

The African Union also released a statement on Machar's arrest on Thursday, saying: "The chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, expresses deep concern over reports regarding the detention of the First Vice President of the Republic of South Sudan, Dr Riek Machar."

On Wednesday, the UN reported fighting between forces loyal to Kiir and Machar close to the capital Juba.

The 2013-2018 civil war, which was fought largely along ethnic lines, resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths in the world's youngest nation.

(with newswires)

EU vows retaliation after Trump slaps 25 percent duty on foreign cars

The European Union has vowed to take "proportionate and necessary" action after US President Donald Trump announced steep new tariffs on all foreign-made cars, a move set to fuel tensions with trading partners worldwide.


Issued on: 27/03/2025 - RFI

A Volkswagen car dealership in Essen, Germany. AP - Martin Meissner

"What we're going to be doing is a 25 percent tariff on all cars that are not made in the United States. If they're made in the United States, it is absolutely no tariff," Trump said at the White House on Wednesday.

The measure will take effect at 12:01am eastern time on 3 April and will impact foreign-made cars and light trucks, with key automobile parts also to be hit within the month.

The move, part of a wave of tariffs introduced since Trump returned to the presidency in January, has heightened trade tensions with long-standing US allies.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the tariffs would hurt businesses and consumers, and warned that the EU was ready to strike back.





She reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to defending its industries, warning that Brussels was prepared to take "proportionate and necessary" counter-measures.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Trump’s new tariffs send a “fatal signal” to free and rules-based trade.

France leads EU fightback against Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs
Further threats

Trump has warned he could impose significantly higher tariffs on both the European Union and Canada if they work together in ways he sees as economically harmful to the United States.

"If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large-scale tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Peter Navarro, Trump's senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, later blasted "foreign trade cheaters" who he said turned America's once-bustling manufacturing sector into a "lower wage assembly operation for foreign parts".

"That threatens our national security because it's eroded our defense and manufacturing industrial base," he said.

Navarro took aim at Germany and Japan specifically for reserving the construction of higher-value parts to their countries.

Since returning to the presidency in January, Trump has imposed fresh tariffs on imports from major US trading partners Canada, Mexico and China – alongside a 25 percent duty on steel and aluminium.

Trump escalates trade tensions with 200 percent tariff on EU wine, champagne
France defends EU interests

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot earlier said the European Union will respond in kind to any such moves from the US.

In February, Barrot emphasised that France and its European partners would not hesitate to defend their interests against US threats.

He noted that the European Commission is prepared to act, stating: "It is ready to pull the trigger when the time has come. Now this time has come. It is in no-one's interest to start a commercial war with the European Union."
'Direct attack'

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney branded the tariffs a "direct attack" on Canadian workers, saying that Ottawa was considering its own retaliatory measures.

The auto tariffs come a day before Trump plans to unveil additional duties aimed at countries he deems responsible for the US trade deficit.

The EU has indicated that it will delay its initial counter-measures until mid-April, which include a planned 50 percent tariff on American bourbon whiskey.

In response, Trump has threatened to impose a 200 percent tariff on all European wines and other alcoholic products should the bloc proceed with its plans.

The mounting tensions have raised concerns of a full-scale transatlantic trade war, with European officials vowing to coordinate a "decisive response" should Washington escalate the dispute further.

Rain gives some respite to South Korea firefighters as death toll rises

Yeongdeok (South Korea) (AFP) – Overnight rain helped douse some of South Korea's worst-ever wildfires, authorities said Friday, as the death toll from the unprecedented blazes raging for nearly a week reached 28.


Issued on: 28/03/2025 - RFI

A house glows after being torched by a wildfire in Cheongsong 

© ANTHONY WALLACE / AFP

More than a dozen fires have ravaged large areas of the country's southeast, destroying an ancient temple, and forcing around 37,000 people to evacuate.

The flames blocked roads and knocked out communication lines, causing residents to flee in panic as fireballs rained down on cars stuck in traffic jams to escape the area.

The flames have been fanned by high winds and ultra-dry conditions, with the area experiencing below-average rains for months after South Korea experienced its hottest year on record in 2024.

But overnight Thursday it rained in the affected area, helping firefighters to contain some of the worst blazes.

"The rain that fell from the afternoon into the early morning aided the firefighting efforts," Korea Forest Service chief Lim Sang-seop said.

A destroyed property in Cheongsong after being ravaged by fire

 © ANTHONY WALLACE / AFP

The rain "reduced the haze, improving visibility, and the cooler temperatures compared to other days create very favourable conditions for firefighting efforts", he said.

South Korea's interior ministry said a total of 28 people had been killed as of Friday morning, and 37 others were injured -- nine seriously.

The fatalities include a pilot in his 70s whose helicopter crashed Wednesday while trying to contain a fire, as well as four firefighters and other workers who lost their lives after being trapped by rapidly advancing flames.
Hottest year in 2024

More than 2,240 houses in the region have been destroyed, according to the latest figures, and an official said Thursday more than 35,000 hectares (86,500 acres) of forest have been burned.

Some 28 people have died in the worst-ever wildfires to hit South Korea 

© ANTHONY WALLACE / AFP

The extent of damage makes it South Korea's largest-ever wildfire, after an inferno in April 2000 that scorched 23,913 hectares across the east coast.

The fire also destroyed several historic sites, including the Gounsa temple complex in Uiseong, which is believed to have been originally built in the 7th century.

Among the damaged structures at the temple are two state-designated "treasures," one of which is a pavilion built in 1668 that overlooks a stream.

Last year was South Korea's hottest on record, although temperatures in the months running up to the blaze had been colder than last year and in line with the country's 30-year average, Korea Meteorological Administration data shows.

But the fire-hit region had been experiencing unusually dry weather with below-average precipitation.

According to the interior ministry, the wildfires were accidentally started by a grave visitor and "sparks from a brush cutter".

Both the devastating California wildfires in January and the fires in South Korea are similar, said Kimberley Simpson, fellow in nature-based climate solutions at the University of Sheffield's School of Biosciences.

"Only three months into 2025, we’ve already witnessed record-breaking wildfire activity in multiple regions.

"As climate change drives rising temperatures and alters rainfall patterns, the conditions that give rise to these devastating fires are becoming more frequent."

© 2025 AFP

Clean energy giant Goldwind leads China's global sector push

Beijing (AFP) – China has rushed ahead in recent years as the world's forerunner in wind energy, propelled by explosive local demand as Beijing aggressively pursues strategic and environmental targets.


Issued on: 28/03/2025

RFI

China's wind power manufacturers are beginning to make headway overseas 

© Adek BERRY / AFP

Goldwind -- the country's sector champion -- is set to publish financial results for last year on Friday, offering a window into how its domestic operations and overseas expansion efforts are faring.

AFP looks at how Goldwind and its Chinese peers turned the country into the indisputable global superpower in wind:
Recent gusts

China has been a major player in global installed wind capacity since the late 2000s but it is only in the past few years that it has surged to the top.


Publicité




Companies from mainland China accounted for six of the top seven turbine manufacturers worldwide last year, according to a report this month by BloombergNEF.

Goldwind held the top spot, followed by three more Chinese firms -- the first time European and US firms all ranked below third.

The country's global wind energy layout is lopsided, however, with the majority of its firms' growth driven by domestic demand.

"The market for wind turbines outside of China is still quite diversified," Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told AFP.

The situation "can stay that way if countries concerned about excessive reliance on China create the conditions for the non-Chinese suppliers to expand capacity", he added.
Overcapacity concerns

China's wind energy boom has fuelled fears in Western countries that a flood of cheap imports will undercut local players, including Denmark's Vestas and GE Vernova of the United States.

A report in January by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed Chinese wind turbine manufacturers have for decades received significantly higher levels of state subsidies than member countries.

Western critics argue that the extensive support from Beijing to spur on the domestic wind industry have led to an unfair advantage.

The European Union last April said it would investigate subsidies received by Chinese firms that exported turbines to the continent.

"We cannot allow China's overcapacity issues to distort Europe's established market for wind energy," said Phil Cole, Director of Industrial Affairs at WindEurope, a Brussels-based industry group, in response to the recent OECD report.

"Without European manufacturing and a strong European supply chain, we lose our ability to produce the equipment we need -- and ultimately our energy and national security," said Cole.
Gold rush

Goldwind's origin lies in the vast, arid stretches of western China, where in the 1980s a company named Xinjiang Wind Energy built its first turbine farm.

Engineer-turned-entrepreneur Wu Gang soon joined, helping transform the fledgling firm into a pioneer in China's wind energy sector, establishing Goldwind in 1998.

"Goldwind was there from the beginning," said Andrew Garrad, co-founder of Garrad Hassan, a British engineering consultancy that had early engagement with China's wind industry.

"The West was looking at China as an impoverished place in need of help," Garrad told AFP.

"It wasn't, then, an industrial power to be reckoned with."

Garrad, whose company once sold technology to several Chinese wind energy startups including Goldwind, remembers Wu paying him a visit in Bristol during the early 1990s to talk business.

The two spent three days negotiating a software sale for around £10,000 -- a sum "which, for both of us at the time, was worth having", recalled Garrad.

"He didn't have any money at all, and so he was staying at the youth hostel, sharing a room with five other people," he said.

Wu's firm would go on to strike gold, emerging in this century as a global leader in wind turbine technology and installed capacity.
Global future?

In recent years, as China's wind market matures, state subsidies are cut and the economy faces downward pressure, Goldwind has increasingly been looking overseas.

In 2023, the firm dropped "Xinjiang" from its official name.

The move was interpreted as an attempt to disassociate from the troubled region, where Beijing is accused of large-scale human rights abuses.

It was also seen as adopting a more outward-facing and international identity.

China's wind power manufacturers are making some headway overseas, particularly in emerging and developing countries, said Myllyvirta of the CREA.

This is particularly true "after Western manufacturers were hit by supply chain disruptions and major input prices due to Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine", he added.

Emerging markets affiliated with Beijing's "Belt and Road" development push seem to offer Chinese players the best chance at overseas growth, Endri Lico, analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told AFP.

"Chinese strength comes from scale... and strategic control over domestic supply chains and raw material resources," said Lico.

Western markets remain strongholds for local players, however, "due to entrenched positions, energy security concerns and protectionist policies", he added.

© 2025 AFP

Behind the veneer of de-demonization, the anti-Semitism still present in the National Rally

Jordan Bardella has been invited to take part in an international conference on the fight against anti-Semitism in Israel on Wednesday and Thursday, a further step in the National Rally's strategy of normalization. However, anti-Semitism is still very much present among elected officials and supporters of the far-right party.


Published : 25/03/2025 - 
FRANCE24
By: Romain BRUNET

The president of the French far-right party National Rally (RN) and member of the European Parliament, Jordan Bardella in Montélimar on February 1, 2025. (Illustration) (Illustration) © Jean-Philippe Ksiazek, AFP


It is an invitation that looks like a culmination. The president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, and the MEP Marion Maréchal are invited to Israel on Wednesday 26 and Thursday 27 March to participate in an international conference on the fight against anti-Semitism. More than 50 years after its creation by Jean-Marie Le Pen in the company of a former Waffen-SS, Pierre Bousquet, the National Front, which became the National Rally in 2018, is thus masquerading as a party fighting against anti-Semitism.

After the presence of the far-right party at the march against anti-Semitism on November 12, 2023 and the dubbing received by the historian Serge Klarsfeld in June 2024, this is one more step in the de-demonization at work since the takeover of the party by Marine Le Pen in 2011, and continued with Jordan Bardella.

To be readEuropean far-right in Israel to talk about anti-Semitism, controversial invitation

"This strategy has been made in particular on the issue of anti-Semitism, considered a disqualifying stigma to access power. So being received in Israel is obviously something that can be used as an argument against those who continue to think that the RN is a far-right party. Jordan Bardella can thus give the impression that his party is working on this issue and that it has evolved," analyses political scientist Sylvain Crépon, a lecturer at the University of Tours.

However, the president of the National Rally sometimes finds it difficult to completely detach himself from his party's past. Asked in 2023 a few days before the march against anti-Semitism on BFMTV about the anti-Semitism of Jean-Marie Le Pen - convicted more than 25 times by the courts for glorifying war crimes, incitement to hatred and discrimination, anti-Semitism and public insults - Jordan Bardella replied: "I don't believe that Jean-Marie Le Pen was anti-Semitic".
And even if Marine Le Pen had expelled her father from the party in 2015, precisely on this issue, behind the veneer of respectability, anti-Semitism still runs through the French far right and the National Rally in particular.
Anti-Semitic prejudices very present on the far right

In its annual report on the fight against racism, antisemitism and xenophobia published in June 2024, which highlighted an explosion in antisemitic acts since the October 7, 2023 attacks perpetrated by Hamas against Israel, the National Consultative Commission on Human Rights (CNCDH) stressed that there was far-left antisemitism in France but that it was "without comparison with that observed on the far right and among those close to the National Rally".

"In general, far-right sympathizers remain the most inclined to agree with these traditional anti-Semitic prejudices: 34% of RN sympathizers believe that 'Jews have too much power', 51% adhere to the stereotype of the 'dual allegiance' of French Jews and 51% attribute to them a particular relationship with money, which is systematically much more than the average French person and supporters of other major political parties," according to the CNCDH study.

To be readBy marching against anti-Semitism, Marine Le Pen is taking another step towards its normalization

"What has changed is that anti-Semitism that is displayed and liberated no longer has the right to exist. In the 1990s, I frequently heard anti-Semitic remarks from officials or members of the National Front. Now, these remarks have disappeared because instructions have been given. But I note that some people who were members of the party 20 years ago and who made anti-Semitic remarks then are still members of the RN today. The clean-up has not been completely done," says Sylvain Crépon.

Proof of an incomplete clean-up, each election brings its share of revelations about the candidates presented by the National Rally. Several investigations, notably by Libération and Mediapart, have revealed the presence of anti-Semitic National Rally candidates in the 2024 legislative elections.
Several more openly anti-Semitic candidates in 2024

Thus, Mediapart revealed that the former deputy of the Aisne Jocelyn Dessigny, candidate for re-election, had posted on his Facebook account a photo of himself wearing a T-shirt of the identity rock group In memoriam, known to neo-Nazis for having covered a march song of the Hitler Youth, La Colonne.

The RN has also once again invested in Paris Agnès Pageard who, in February 2021 on her X account, according to Libération, called for "rereading Henry Coston", a collaborationist essayist known for his anti-Semitism and anti-Masonism.

To be read2024 legislative elections: the pretences of the National Rally

The same problem exists in Gironde with Sandrine Chadourne, RN municipal councillor of Pineuilh, who is used to "likes" anti-Semitic pages, "such as that of the newspaper Rivarol or the website Jeune Nation, a showcase for the neo-fascist movement Les Nationalistes," says Libération.

At the time, Jordan Bardella described these candidates as "black sheep" of the RN and assured that he did not have "a trembling hand" when he withdrew their nomination from the party.

"But even today, you have in the National Assembly an RN deputy, Frédéric Boccaletti, who ran a bookshop in Toulon for years that sold anti-Semitic books. It was even called Anthinéa, which is the title of a book by Charles Maurras, one of the great theoreticians of anti-Semitism in France," says Sylvain Crépon about a past that Jordan Bardella's trip to Israel will never be able to erase.

In Paris, the unease of the Algerian diaspora in the face of tensions with France


While diplomatic tensions have poisoned relations between France and Algeria for several months – immigration, Western Sahara, the arrest of influencers, visa restrictions – France 24 met with members of the Algerian diaspora in Paris. They share their hopes that these tensions will ease. 


Published : 25/03/2025 -
FRANCE24
By: Irène SULMONT

A montage showing the Great Mosque of Paris, on March 21, 2025. © iStock, Studio graphique France Médias Monde / Alexandre Neracoulis


In the Barbès-Rochechouart district located in the north of Paris, the sun's rays illuminate, on this Friday, March 21, the stalls of round biscuits coated with honey, the pastries filled with almonds and flavored with orange blossom, the varieties of sweet dates. "Ramadan is a time when sales are good," says Mahjoub Youssef, originally from Algiers, who works as a salesman in one of the pastry shops on Boulevard de la Chapelle.

However, this festive period has a special flavour this year for Algerians in France, who are closely following the tense exchanges between Paris and Algiers. Some members of the Algerian community find this rift worrying, while others prefer not to elaborate on the subject, sometimes for fear of reprisals.

"Diplomatic tensions? It's not my problem and it's none of my business. Give my opinion? It only gets me into trouble," Mahjoub said.

See also France-Algeria: towards a break?

Originally from Algiers, Mahjoub Youssef is a salesman in one of the shops on Boulevard de la Chapelle, in Barbès-Rochechouart, north of Paris, on March 21, 2025. © Irène Sulmont, France 24

The stalls on Boulevard de la Chapelle, in Barbès-Rochechouart, in the north of Paris, on March 21, 2025. © Irène Sulmont, France 24

"I don't prefer to talk about politics"

Yassine, 36, who owns a halal meat shop in the district and has lived in Seine-Saint-Denis for about twenty years, calmly comments on the situation. "We work with French, Muslims, Christians, Jews without any problem." Although he has both passports, he remains convinced that "France and Algeria are brotherly peoples" and that diplomatic tensions "are very far from the daily life of the people of the neighborhood, where Algerians are overrepresented."

Yassine is tired of French party officials and "prefers not to talk about politics". "Last time, a politician said 'Algerians are thugs'. What should we not hear!" he laments.

To be read

1968 Agreement: a singular and controversial commitment between France and Algeria

A halal meat shop, boulevard de la Chapelle, in the Barbès-Rochechouart district, on March 21, 2025. © Irène Sulmont, France 24

A halal meat shop, boulevard de la Chapelle, in the Barbès-Rochechouart district, on March 21, 2025. © Irène Sulmont, France 24

Originally from Annaba in Algeria, owner of a date shop, who arrived in France 35 years ago, Mouloud believes that there are no "problems or significant changes in his daily life". For him, the recent tensions are a "small temporary crisis", and he believes that the only desirable thing "is a good relationship between the two countries".

This "yo-yo relationship, since colonization, has left after-effects and the consequences are undeniable at the economic, relational and cultural levels," he concludes.

A store on Boulevard de la Chapelle, in Barbès-Rochechouart, in the north of Paris, on March 21, 2025. © Irène Sulmont, France 24
"A lack of dialogue between the two nations"

Shortly before the time of the Dohr prayer in front of the Great Mosque of Paris, tongues are loosened at midday in the Jardin-des-Plantes district, in the5th arrondissement of the capital.

Un peu avant l’heure de la prière de Dohr devant la Grande mosquée de Paris, le 21 mars 2025. © Irène Sulmont, France 24

Âgée de 81 ans, Myriam, d’origine kabyle, affirme qu’autour d’elle, "les gens sont abasourdis par la situation et le climat médiatique". Pour les Algériens de France, il est impossible, "même si nous nous sentons français, de balayer notre appartenance d'un revers de main". Elle concède cependant que "de l'autre côté de la Méditerranée, ils sont obtus et apparemment très susceptibles".

According to her, the deterioration of the bilateral relationship finds its essence "in a lack of dialogue between the two nations", since by "listening to the other, it is easier to find a compromise". Regarding Algeria's reactions, Myriam says however that "we cannot swallow everything without reacting and this is perfectly normal".

As for Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who last week promised a "graduated" response to Algeria's refusal to take back its nationals that France wanted to expel from the country, "he should review his copy," she said politely. "It's not by fighting right away that you get what you want," she said.

One of the main reasons for the current disagreement is Emmanuel Macron's announcement, in July 2024, of his strong support for an autonomy plan under Moroccan sovereignty for Western Sahara. "Emmanuel Macron is turning his back on the side of the Moroccans," she laments.

The octogenarian finally prefers "not to think about the repercussions and the future".
The feeling of "having your ass between two chairs"

Two young Franco-Algerian women confide more frankly, declaring that they "do not want to evolve or start a family in France". Children of the Algerian diaspora, aged 30 and 24, the young women were born in France and work in the Parisian artistic milieu. One, Dounia, is in design, the other, Neïla, in the music industry.

Government threats, visa issues, questioning of the 1968 agreements, arrests of influencers, intellectuals... "The news is tiring and anxiety-provoking. By dint of it, we stop following it," says Dounia.

"To be honest, we perfectly understand the Algerian decisions and reluctance towards France," Dounia said. This was mainly because of "the history of colonisation and the French crimes committed during the Algerian war", she added. Beyond the Franco-Algerian relationship, "the recent debates on the veil and, in general, the perception of Islam in France give me the feeling that I am not welcome here", Neïla laments. This is difficult to accept for these women who "were born here, have Western codes, French culture and mentality", she continues.

This double belonging gives the feeling of "having our ass between two chairs", since "in the bled, we are French, and in Paris, we are foreigners", concludes Dounia.

Truce or stalemate? The fault lines between Ukraine, Russia and the United States
Analysis

After the second round of negotiations on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, the United States announced on Tuesday a security agreement between Moscow and Kiev in the Black Sea. Ukraine does not seem to be winning this outcome, while Russia has set several conditions. In addition, the three players disagree on the Zaporizhzhia plant. France 24 takes stock.


Published : 27/03/2025 

By: Jean-Luc MOUNIER

FRANCE24

Several points of disagreement persist between the United States, Ukraine and Russia. © AP

In the Black Sea, "Russia wins in every way"

After several days of negotiations in Saudi Arabia, separately with Ukraine and Russia, the United States said on Tuesday 25 March that the two countries had agreed to "ensure the safety of navigation, to suppress the use of force and to prevent the use of commercial vessels for military objectives in the Black Sea".

But this agreement seems at first glance to be mainly beneficial to Moscow, as several experts have pointed out in the media in recent days. Patrick Martin-Genier, a professor at Sciences-Po Paris and at the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (Inalco), says the same thing: "Russia is a winner from all points of view," he believes. "The Black Sea is already won by Ukraine, it is Kiev that has military control over it. So with a ceasefire, even a temporary one, Russia is the winner."

Kiev has, in fact, defeated the Russian fleet on the Black Sea, even managing to destroy some 30% of Russian naval capabilities in this area in a few months of 2024, as detailed in a note from Institut Montaigne.

Under these conditions, the agreement proposed by Washington disadvantages Ukraine, whose "ability to strike Russian military structures in the Black Sea was their only advantage", as Alessio Patalano, a specialist in naval history and professor at King's College London, explained to Mediapart.

The negotiations in Riyadh are also "a diplomatic and strategic success" for Russia, Martin-Genier continues, because they should allow Moscow – after withdrawing from the grain agreement in 2023 – to resume its grain and grain exports: "Russia wants this resumption to be able to directly export its products to the Global South and Africa – where Moscow has economic interests."
"It's stuck" over the management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

The fate of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is a sticking point between the parties to the negotiations for a truce in Ukraine. The Ukrainian plant, which has been occupied by Russian forces since the first days of the invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago, has been a topic of discussion between Washington, Moscow and Kiev for more than a week. And the three countries disagree over the future of Europe's largest power plant – which supplied 20% of Ukraine's energy before the war.

Donald Trump suggested, during a call on March 20, with Volodymyr Zelensky, that the United States take "possession" of Ukrainian power plants – including the occupied Zaporizhzhia plant. A proposal that "would constitute the best possible protection and support", according to White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.

But Ukraine does not see it that way: the very next day, Volodymyr Zelensky rejected his American counterpart. "We will not discuss it. We have 15 nuclear reactors in operation today. All this belongs to our state," said the Ukrainian president, who said, however, that he was listening if the Americans "want to modernize, invest" in the Zaporizhzhia plant.

See alsoUkraine: Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant at the heart of peace negotiations

Russia, for its part, refused on 25 March to allow this nuclear facility to escape its control. "Transferring the Zaporizhzhia plant under the control of Ukraine or another country is impossible," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

In the end, no one agrees on the subject. "It's stuck" everywhere, admits Patrick Martin-Genier; which sums up the stakes for the three countries: "The American president is still in his perspective of doing business. Moscow considers that this plant is now managed by the Russians – even though it is legally located in an occupied region and therefore normally under the Ukrainian authorities. Finally, on the Kiev side, they don't want to let the idea that it is selling its greatest nuclear strategic asset to the United States be given credence."

Russia's other demands "to play for time"

Barely announced, the agreement resulting from the latest talks in Saudi Arabia was submitted to conditions by Russia. Moscow hopes to obtain several concessions to meet its commitments. Starting with an easing of Western restrictions on Russia's state-owned agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank, as well as other Russian financial institutions related to food and fertilizers.

In particular, Russia wants its institutions to be reintegrated into the Swift international interbank settlement system. Moscow has been excluded from this most widely used financial information transfer network in the world for more than three years, a sanction that was decided by the West against it after the invasion of Ukraine.

To be readWhat is the Swift system from which Russia could be excluded?

"Russians have not been able to carry out their international economic transactions since 2022, and agricultural exports – especially fertilizers – are essential for Russia from an economic and strategic point of view," explains Patrick Martin-Genier. Washington seems inclined to put Moscow back on track with the international banking exchange system, as evidenced by the White House statement issued on March 25 after the negotiations in Riyadh.

It states that "the United States will help restore Russia's access to the global market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce marine insurance costs, and improve access to ports and payment systems for these transactions." This position does not seem to be shared by the European Union, which has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia in recent years. And a reconnection of Moscow to Swift cannot be done without the agreement of the Twenty-Seven.

Responding to Moscow's new demands, an adviser to President Emmanuel Macron replied during a telephone briefing with journalists on 25 March that "there are no European sanctions on Russian agricultural products". Before adding: "The Russians can always opportunistically condition partial progress towards a ceasefire on the lifting of certain sanctions", but these remain a "necessary instrument of pressure on Russia".

For Patrick Martin-Genier, these new conditions are a way for Moscow to "open up the Russian economy" but also to "play for time": "Vladimir Putin is postponing the deadline for peace, he wants to negotiate everything to his advantage with a ceasefire under conditions. We can see today that this lasting peace is not yet a given."

Disgraced spy and former diplomat: who are the two Russian negotiators on Ukraine?
Analysis

To negotiate in Riyadh with the Americans, Russia has sent Grigory Karasin, a former high-ranking diplomat and expert on the Ukrainian issue, and Sergei Beseda, a former FSB official in charge of intelligence gathering. Two personalities with less political than technical profiles, whose mission will be to advance Moscow's pawns against the Trump administration.


Published: 24/03/2025 

FRANCE24
By: Grégoire SAUVAGE

Russian Federation Senator Grigory Karasin speaks to the press during a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna, Austria, February 24, 2023. © Eva Manhart, AFP


Vladimir Putin personally chose them for the talks on Ukraine that began on Monday 24 March in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Described by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as "Russia's best negotiators", politician Grigory Karasin and former spymaster Sergei Beseda lead the delegation sent by Moscow to defend Russian interests against the American team.

Former Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, who heads the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on the Ukrainian issue because of his involvement ten years ago in the drafting of the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements.

"At the time of the Minsk agreements, Grigory Karasin headed several negotiating groups on military, economic and humanitarian issues. He knows every rock in Ukraine and the disputed areas," says Jean de Gliniasty, director of research at Iris. "He is probably one of the best, if not the best, specialist in the Ukrainian question in Russia," adds the former France ambassador to Russia, where he worked with the diplomat.

Adopted between September 2014 and February 2015, these agreements were intended to resolve the conflict between the Ukrainian army and the separatist forces in the Donbass regions, supported by Moscow. In fact, the measures of this 13-point protocol have never been implemented.



To be readIn the Donbass, ten years of war and Russification

"Grigory Karasin has certainly been attached to diplomatic functions linked to the post-Soviet space, but he is also a French-speaking person who has been to Africa and knows the Middle East. He is a bit of a diplomatic guarantor for this team of negotiators," says Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory.
A spy to embody the "hard line"

While this profile of a seasoned diplomat seems obvious to lead these talks, the choice of Sergei Beseda has, on the other hand, surprised many. Current advisor to the director of the Russian Security Service (FSB), this officer was in charge of the "fifth service" when the "special operation" in Ukraine was launched by the Kremlin in February 2022. This department is dedicated to gathering intelligence in the countries of the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine.

As such, this general is considered one of the main sources who convinced Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine. At that time, the FSB promised a victorious blitzkrieg and the rapid collapse of the government in Kiev due to widespread pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. A miscalculation that would get him into serious trouble, according to Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov, a specialist in the country's security services.

To be readThe Russian army, from the illusion of grandeur to the reality on the ground in Ukraine

Sergei Beseda was reportedly the victim of a purge in the "fifth service" and found himself under house arrest. In an article in the independent newspaper The Moscow Times, Andrei Soldatov claims that the former spymaster spent time in Lefortovo prison, a Moscow prison for high-profile inmates under investigation for serious crimes such as "high treason", "terrorism" or "espionage". However, this information has never been confirmed.

Now an adviser to the director of the FSB, "Sergei Beseda represents the Russian deep state and the structure of the security services with the aim of carrying out a process that is above all technical," explains Igor Delanoë.

According to David Teurtrie, a lecturer at the Catholic Institute for Higher Studies and director of the French Observatory of BRICS (OFB), Sergei Besseda, who has been familiar with the Ukrainian issue since 2014, is "a representative of the hard line" in Moscow. Within this team, Grigory Karasin is "the one who can seek compromises while Besseda should maintain firmer positions".

Targeted by Western sanctions since 2014, Sergei Besseda is one of the bête noire of the Kiev regime. In 2023, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, called him a "very problematic" personality who had done "a lot of harm" to Ukraine.
Russia's "caution"

This duo of negotiators, more technical than political, also suggests that "Moscow is trying to give itself an advantage against the Americans who are not at the same level on the Ukrainian issue. However, these talks promise to be very technical. We will talk about infrastructure, power plants, freedom of navigation in the Black Sea," says Jean de Gliniasty.

According to Reuters, citing a source familiar with the talks, the U.S. side is represented by Andrew Peek, a member of the White House National Security Council, and Michael Anton, a State Department official.

While Washington and Kiev are pushing for a "general" ceasefire, Vladimir Putin, whose army is advancing on the ground despite heavy losses, seems to be playing for time, as long as his men have not expelled Ukrainian troops from the Russian border region of Kursk. At this stage, the Kremlin assures that it has only agreed with Washington on a moratorium on the bombing of energy infrastructure.

As a symbol of the differences that need to be bridged in order to reach a truce, the Ukrainian delegation is led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov. The choice of the two Russian negotiators who, without being second fiddles, "are no longer at the heart of Russian power" shows that "the Kremlin probably has limited objectives with regard to these talks, unlike Washington, which is very optimistic," said David Teurtrie.

To be readThe "detoxification" of Russia, as simple as a phone call between Putin and Trump?

"The profile of these negotiators shows Russia's caution. The process is taken seriously by Moscow but if it fails politically, it does not compromise the resumption of dialogue," said Igor Delanoë. This hypothesis is more difficult to envisage if higher-ranking personalities are involved, adds the expert.

Basically, Moscow's position on the conflict has remained unchanged. The Kremlin says it wants to tackle the "root causes of the crisis" and force Kiev to recognise Russia's territorial gains and accept a form of neutrality. An unacceptable capitulation from the Ukrainian point of view.

"The Russians are on a ridge line. They must satisfy the Americans because they consider this to be a historic opportunity to reconcile with the United States. So we have to give them a bone to gnaw on," says Jean de Gliniasty. "And at the same time, because they have the advantage on the pitch, they want to buy time and keep scoring points. So they will have to find the point of balance."

In this respect, the maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, desired by the White House, could be a convenient pledge of goodwill to offer the Kremlin. Faced with the superiority of Ukrainian naval drones, the Russian fleet, which has lost 20% of its ships since 2022, has been forced to retreat to the east. In short, Russia is ready to negotiate in Riyadh, especially if it has nothing to lose.

Chile: fishermen try to block the country's main port

Santiago de Chile (AFP) - Artisanal fishermen tried to disrupt port operations in Chile on Thursday, on the third day of a protest to demand an increase in their fishing quotas, authorities said.


Published: 28/03/2025 

A Chilean navy ship sprays a boat with protesters, artisanal fishermen, during a protest on March 27 at the port of San Antonio, Chile © CRISTOBAL BASAURE / AFP

The protests, which have left about 20 people injured, most of them police officers, and as many arrested, continued on Thursday in the port of San Antonio, where most of the country's cargo transits.

Protests also took place in the ports of Valparaiso and Quinteros, also located on the central coast of Chile, about 120 km from Santiago.

Artisanal fishermen are demanding the "immediate" approval by Parliament of a bill to increase their fishing quota and reduce that of industrial fishermen. The law, presented in September 2024 by the government of President Gabriel Boric, was approved by the Chamber of Deputies and is currently being examined by the Senate's finance committee.

"The protesters tried to prevent the passage of ships (...) with the aim of blocking port operations," the Chilean navy said in a statement.

In addition, troops were mobilized on fast boats to push back the protesters. Four people were arrested, the navy said in a statement.

No authority has reported a suspension of port activities.

The president of the federation of the Valparaiso region, Miguel Angel Hernandez, told AFP that one of his colleagues had been injured by projectiles fired by the navy.

He also claimed that about 100 boats had tried to block "the passage of industrial ships" in San Antonio.

On Wednesday, clashes with police in several regions of the country left fifteen police officers injured and one demonstrator. A police vehicle was set on fire in the southern region of Maule, during particularly violent demonstrations.

© 2025 AFP

Chile rocked by clashes over fishing quotas


By AFP
March 26, 2025


The Chilean port of Valparaiso was rocked by protests by artisanal fishermen demanding a greater share of the catch quota, particularly for hake - Copyright AFP CRISTOBAL BASAURE

Chilean police fired tear gas and water cannon Wednesday as they battled with hundreds of fishermen who threw stones and burned tires to press for greater catch rights, leaving at least 15 officers and a protester hurt.

Clashes were reported in the port city of Valparaiso, and in the regions of Coquimbo and Maule.

Valparaiso’s police chief General Patricia Vasquez said seven police officers were injured in the standoff, one of whom was hospitalized with serious head wounds.

One among the protesters, who barricaded streets with flaming tires and threw firecrackers, was also hurt. Three were arrested.

Police fired tear gas and used at least three water cannon to disperse the protests, which Vasquez termed “very violent” and lasted several hours.

In the region of Maule, south of the capital Santiago, clashes with police wounded eight officers and led to the arrest of five protesters, officials said.

The demonstrators burnt a police vehicle.

In the Coquimbo region in Chile’s north, fishermen also took to the streets, demanding that congress adopt a bill boosting artisanal fishing rights.

The fishermen blocked the Pan-American Highway, which runs the length of Chile, with burning tires.

The protesters accuse the Senate of holding up the bill, which gives artisanal fishermen a bigger share of the catch quota, particularly of hake.

The bill was adopted by the House of Representatives and is now being examined by the Senate Finance Committee.

Miguel Angel Hernandez, president of the Federation of Artisanal Fishermen of the Valparaiso region, accused the Senate of trying to reduce the artisanal catch allocation.

“What we hope is that the bill is passed immediately,” he told AFP.

Turkey: Protests continue, eight journalists in the process of being released

Eight journalists arrested for covering banned gatherings are due to be released on Thursday as the protests in Turkey, sparked by the imprisonment of opposition Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, entered their second stage. A Turkish television channel close to the opposition was sentenced on Thursday to ten days of interruption of its programmes.


Published : 27/03/2025 - 
By: FRANCE 24

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1:56

Agence France-Presse photographer Yasin Akgul, arrested in Turkey on March 25, 2025, in an undated © photo - / AFP/Archives


The protests have entered their second week in Turkey, where the authorities, faced with demonstrations on a scale not seen in twelve years, ordered the release of eight journalists arrested for covering banned gatherings on Thursday 27 March.

Among them is Agence France-Presse photographer Yasin Akgül, who was arrested at dawn on Monday at his home in Istanbul, imprisoned since Tuesday and released on Thursday afternoon. The charges against the 35-year-old reporter have not been dropped by the courts, however, his lawyer told AFP.


The Turkish judiciary had ordered the release of eight journalists arrested on Monday in Istanbul and Izmir on Thursday morning, a measure that should take place during the day. The NGO Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said it was "relieved" by this announcement, demanding the release of the other two still in the hands of the authorities. According to an NGO, these two journalists arrested in Izmir are still in police custody on Thursday.

The Turkish television channel Sözcü TV, which is close to the opposition and has already been fined recently, was sentenced on Thursday to ten days of interruption of its programmes for "inciting the public to hatred and hostility", according to the Turkish Broadcasting Council (RTÜK), which is in the midst of protests in the country.

The RTÜK also imposed fines and a suspension of certain programmes on three other channels critical of the government, including Halk TV, five of whose journalists were arrested at the end of January on charges of trying to influence the courts. The journalists were eventually acquitted.

See alsoTurkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the march towards dictatorship?

The wave of protests was triggered by the arrest on 19 March of the popular opposition mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main rival, on "corruption".

Students protested on Wednesday at several universities in Ankara, the capital. In one of them, several dozen of their professors also denounced, in gowns, the "pressure" exerted by the government on the opposition and the universities.

In Istanbul, where the protests are most pronounced, Wednesday evening was calmer than in previous days, AFP journalists said.

Call for a demonstration on Saturday

The Republican People's Party (CHP, social democratic), the main opposition force, which until then had invited tens of thousands of people to gather every evening in front of Istanbul City Hall, has stopped doing so, calling for a very large rally on Saturday in another place in the city.

To be readWith the detention of his main opponent, Erdogan makes Turkey an "assumed autocracy"

A student coordination in Istanbul also called for a demonstration at the end of the day, Thursday, in a district whose mayor was also arrested and dismissed from office and where thousands of young people had marched on Tuesday evening to the applause of local residents, their faces often masked for fear of being identified by the police.

President Erdogan, who hardened his tone against the opposition on Wednesday, suggesting that new corruption investigations could fall on the CHP, has repeatedly said that he would not give in to the "terror of the street".

The authorities, who have banned gatherings in several major cities in the country, announced on Tuesday that they had arrested more than 1,400 demonstrators since the beginning of the wave of protests.

See alsoTurkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the march towards dictatorship?

French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday denounced "attacks" and "aggressions" in Turkey that "can only be regretted". "The systematic nature of the prosecution of opposition and civil society figures, the attacks on the freedom to inform, to assemble, the arrest and detention of the mayor of Istanbul are very clearly attacks and aggressions that we can only regret," the French president said after a meeting in Paris of a coalition of states supporting Ukraine.

With AFP

Turkey protesters defiant despite mass arrests


By AFP
March 26, 2025


Since the protests began exactly a week ago, nearly 1,500 people have been arrested - Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP Andrew Harnik

Hazel WARD and Fulya OZERKAN

Protesters were defiant Wednesday despite a growing crackdown and nearly 1,500 arrests as they marked a week since the start of Turkey’s biggest street demonstrations against the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan since 2013.

The protests erupted on March 19 after the arrest of Istanbul opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a graft and “terror” probe, which his supporters denounced as a “coup”.

Vast crowds have hit the street daily, defying protest bans in Istanbul and other big cities and the arrests with 1,418 people held up to Tuesday according to official figures.

Those detained include AFP journalist Yasin Akgul, who the Paris-based agency says was doing his job covering the protests.

Erdogan, who has repeatedly denounced the protests as “street terror”, stepped up his attacks on the opposition with a bitter tirade against the main opposition Republican People’s (CHP) party of Imamoglu and its leader Ozgur Ozel.

In a possible shift in tactics, Ozel said the CHP was not calling for another nightly protest Wednesday outside the Istanbul mayor office, instead urging people to attend a mega rally on Saturday.

But it was far from certain that angry students, who have taken an increasingly prominent role in the protests and are far from all CHP supporters, would stay off the streets.

Most nights, the protests have turned into running battles with riot police, whose crackdown has alarmed rights groups. But there were no such clashes on Tuesday, AFP correspondents said.



– ‘No room left in Istanbul prisons’ –



The arrest of Akgul, who was remanded in custody on Tuesday along with six other journalists who were also arrested in dawn raids on Monday, was denounced by rights groups and Agence France – Presse, which said the 35-year-old’s jailing was “unacceptable” and demanded his immediate release.

“We are deeply concerned by reports of repression against protesters and journalists in Turkey,” said a French foreign ministry source, asking not to be named, adding that Akgul “was covering the protests professionally”.

Addressing the vast crowds gathered for a seventh straight night at Istanbul City Hall, Ozel said the crackdown would only strengthen the protest movement.

“There is one thing that Mr Tayyip should know: our numbers won’t decrease with the detentions and arrests, we will grow and grow and grow!” he vowed.

The extent of the crackdown, he said, meant there was “no room left in Istanbul’s prisons”.

Imamoglu also posted a defiant message targeting Erdogan on his social media channels, vowing to “send him away at the ballot box”, accusing the Turkish leader of “staying behind closed doors in Ankara not to govern Turkey but to protect his seat”.

“We will be one… we will succeed,” he added.

Erdogan himself took aim at Ozel in a speech to his party, dismissing the CHP leader as “a politically bankrupt figure whose ambitions and fears have taken his mind captive”.

The CHP, he claimed, had created “too much material even for Brazilian soap operas” with corruption cases in Istanbul municipalities.



– ‘We are not terrorists’ –



Although the crackdown has not reduced the numbers, most students who joined a huge street rally on Tuesday had their faces covered, an AFP correspondent said.

“We want the government to resign, we want our democratic rights, we are fighting for a freer Turkey right now,” a 20-year-old student who gave his name as Mali told AFP.

“We are not terrorists, we are students and the reason we are here is to exercise our democratic rights and to defend democracy,” he said.

Like most protesters, his face was covered and he refused to give his surname for fear of reprisals.

Another masked student who gave her name as Lydia, 25, urged more people to hit the streets.

“All Turkish people should take to the streets, they are hunting us like vermin (while) you are sitting at home. Come out, look after us! We are your students, we are your future,” she said, her anger evident.

Unlike previous days, the CHP’s Ozel said there would be no rally at City Hall on Wednesday, but called protesters to rally instead on Saturday in the Istanbul district of Maltepe to demand early elections.


Erdogan takes Turkey to new crossroads with mayor’s arrest: analysts


By AFP
March 26, 2025


Turkey has seen a week of huge protests - Copyright AFP Angelos Tzortzinis

Stuart Williams

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken Turkey closer to autocracy with the arrest of the elected mayor of Istanbul, but the scale of the ensuing protests could yet shake his grip, analysts say.

Long accused by opponents of presiding over a drift into authoritarianism, analysts say Erdogan crossed a new line with the arrest last week of the elected mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, a popular and charismatic figure who made no secret of his desire to challenge the Turkish strongman.

Turkey’s political life remains based on a cycle of municipal, presidential and legislative elections and it does not yet resemble Russia — where presidential elections turned into a rubber stamp of Vladimir Putin’s authority — or Iran where the supreme leader is chosen for life by a clerical body.

But the apparent bid to eliminate Imamoglu as a political force represents a major turning point in modern Turkish history which is not without risks for Erdogan, analysts say, with tens of thousands pouring into the streets every night to protest.

“It may not yet be a dictatorship, but it is well on the way to becoming one,” Didier Billion, deputy director of France’s Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), told AFP.

“It’s clear that there’s been a kind of acceleration, a deepening of the government’s repressive course,” he added.

According to the Turkish interior ministry, over 1,400 people have been arrested after taking part in the demonstrations. Among them is AFP photographer Yasin Akgul, whose detention for covering the protest as a journalist the agency condemned as “unacceptable”.

Billion said while the arrest of Imamoglu was the “spark that set off the fire” the protests were going further than demanding his release and “are the expression of a growing exasperation among a large part of the population, although not the whole population.”



– ‘Make or break’ –



Already looming large in Turkey is the shadow of the next presidential election, due by 2028, for which Imamoglu had been about to announce his candidacy just before his arrest.

In theory, Erdogan, 71, is barred by the constitution from standing again but speculation is rife he will circumvent this with an amendment or by calling snap polls before his full mandate expires.

He has dominated Turkey for almost a quarter of a century, with his Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) first winning power in 2002, Erdogan himself becoming premier in 2003 and then president from 2014. Since 2018, he has ruled in a presidential system with the office of premier abolished.

While international observers complain that Turkish elections are marked by an uneven playing field with opposition voices squeezed on state TV, there remains confidence in the voting process.

The arrest of Imamoglu is a move by Erdogan “to stay in power by eliminating his most popular rival,” said Yusuf Can, coordinator for the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program.

But he said Turkish people, especially the young, were braving a “lot of the police brutality and arrests” in a mass movement unseen in Turkey since the 2013 Gezi uprising over the redevelopment of an Istanbul park.

“Younger people in Turkey have lost faith in the future under Erdogan and essentially do not see a future under Erdogan. This is a make-or-break point for younger people especially,” he said.

Mainstream television and newspapers have been brought under Erdogan’s control in recent years with mainly Internet-based channels and publications offering an alternative viewpoint.



– ‘Repression will increase’ –



As well as political risk, Erdogan is also flirting with financial peril.

The Turkish central bank has stepped in with mass interventions to prop up the lira, with economists saying it has spent more than $20 billion trying to prop up its value.

Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, said while it was possible the street demonstrations will “taper off over the next weeks” amid the crackdown, Erdogan “cannot control how people vote” even after consolidating all branches of power in the last years.

“It is closer to the Iranian or Russian system — but still not there,” she said. “The opposition can still have a good game if they play their cards right and maintain the coalition they have built in previous elections.”

The situation poses a challenge as well as an opportunity for Imamoglu’s opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), whose leader Ozgur Ozel, a former pharmacist and a much lower-profile figure than the Istanbul mayor, must decide how far to ride the protest wave.

Marc Pierini, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, said a “degree of panic” had set in among Erdogan supporters after recent polls highlighted Imamoglu’s popularity.

“The protest will likely continue and may have already escaped from CHP control. Repression will increase inevitably. The impact on the economy will be very damaging. All this will sharply erode Erdogan’s image.”

But he added: “I am not sure at all it will erode his grip on power.”

Istanbul court jails 7 journalists as protesters fill streets


By AFP
March 25, 2025


Vast crowds have hit the streets daily since the March 19 move against Istanbul's popular opposition mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu - Copyright AFP ROBERTO SCHMIDT

Fulya OZERKAN

Thousands of students chanting angry slogans hit the streets of Istanbul on Tuesday as a court jailed an AFP journalist and six others for covering the biggest protests to hit Turkey in over a decade.

The demonstrations erupted after the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main political rival, in a crackdown that has seen more than 1,400 people arrested, including 11 Turkish journalists.

Seven of them were remanded in custody by an Istanbul court on Tuesday, among them AFP photographer Yasin Akgul, drawing a sharp rebuke from the Paris-based news agency.

“His imprisonment is unacceptable. This is why I am asking you to intervene as quickly as possible to obtain the rapid release of our journalist,” the agency’s CEO and chairman Fabrice Fries said in a letter to the Turkish presidency.

The court charged Akgul, 35, and the others with “taking part in illegal rallies and marches”, though Fries said Akgul was “not part of the protest” but only covering it as a journalist.

Media freedom group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) denounced the decision as “scandalous”, with its Turkey representative Erol Onderoglu saying it “reflects a very serious situation in Turkey”.



– ‘Dark time for democracy’ –



Vast crowds have defied a protest ban to hit the streets daily since the March 19 move against Istanbul’s opposition mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, with the unrest spreading across Turkey and prompting nightly clashes with security forces.

On Tuesday, thousands of students marched through the upmarket Nisantasi district, chanting “Government, resign!” and waving flags and banners, watched by a large deployment of riot police.

Many had their faces covered with scarves or masks, and acknowledged they feared being identified by the police.

“We can’t express ourselves freely,” a student who gave her name as Nisa told AFP, saying she nonetheless joined the protest “to defend democracy”.

With riot police using water cannon, pepper spray and rubber bullets against protesters, the Council of Europe denounced the “disproportionate” use of force while Human Rights Watch said it was a “dark time for democracy” in Turkey.

The United Nations also voiced alarm at Turkey’s use of mass detentions and its “unlawful blanket ban on protests”, urging the authorities to probe any unlawful use of force.

“All those detained for the legitimate exercise of their rights must be released immediately and unconditionally,” UN rights office spokeswoman Liz Throssell said.



– ‘Political coup’ –



Imamoglu, 53, of the opposition CHP party, is widely seen as the only politician capable of defeating Erdogan, who has ruled the NATO member for a quarter of a century.

But Imamoglu has now been stripped of his mayorship and jailed over a graft and terror probe that his supporters denounce as a “political coup”.

By Tuesday, police had detained 1,418 suspects for taking part in “illegal demonstrations”, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya wrote on X, warning there would be “no concessions” for those who “terrorise the streets”.

Erdogan has remained defiant in the face of the protests, vowing in a message on social media late Monday that Turkey would “not fall for this dirty trick” and denouncing the protesters as “street terrorists”.

– ‘Deeply shocking’ –

Amnesty International demanded an immediate halt to police violence, saying it had reviewed footage that was “deeply shocking”.

“This is a dark time for democracy in Turkiye, with such a blatantly lawless move to weaponise the justice system to cancel the democratic process,” said Hugh Williamson, Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch, using the Turkish form of the country’s name.

At Monday’s rally, CHP head Ozgur Ozel announced a boycott of 10 companies and organisations.

Among them were pro-government TV channels that have avoided broadcasting protest images, along with a cafe chain known for being close to the government.

On Sunday, Imamoglu was overwhelmingly chosen as the CHP’s candidate for a 2028 presidential run, with observers saying it was the looming primary that triggered the move against him.