Sunday, April 20, 2025

ENVIRONMENT: UNPACKING URBAN RESILIENCE

Sheheryar Khan 
Published April 20, 2025   
DAWN




The term ‘resilience’ has become a mainstay in global development and climate discourse, championed as a guiding principle for policy responses to climate change. Government institutions and civil society alike present it as a catch-all solution for addressing environment and climate-induced crises.

However, in the context of Pakistan’s rapidly urbanising landscape, where environmental vulnerabilities are intertwined with socio-economic precarity, the concept of resilience requires a deeper examination. Who is expected to be resilient, and what does resilience mean for those most affected by climate and environment risks?

In a country repeatedly battered by floods, heatwaves, resource scarcity and toxic levels of air quality, the resilience of urban populations cannot be reduced to mere adaptive capacity, it must be understood in relation to systemic inequalities, governance failures and the political economy of risk.

Resilience, as conceptualised in environmental and urban studies, refers to the ability of individuals, communities or systems to withstand, recover from and adapt to external shocks. Scholars studying resilience emphasise that it is not just about enduring crises, but about how social, economic and political systems interact to shape the capacity to respond to them.

In the face of recurring environmental disasters such as floods, heatwaves, resource scarcity and toxic air, what does it mean to promote ‘resilience’? Is it truly addressing the root causes or merely applying temporary fixes?

However, in Pakistan’s development sector, resilience is often framed in terms of technical solutions, such as infrastructure projects or disaster management strategies, without addressing the deeper social and economic inequalities that make certain groups more vulnerable in the first place. In Pakistan, where informal settlements, weak infrastructure and governance challenges exacerbate climate risks, resilience cannot be examined in isolation from broader socio-political and economic factors.

VULNERABILITY, RISK AND RESILIENCE

To meaningfully engage with resilience, it is crucial to distinguish it from vulnerability and risk. Vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of individuals or communities to harm due to their socio-economic and spatial positioning.

In Pakistan’s urban areas, factors such as informal housing, lack of access to water and sanitation and socio-economic marginalisation heighten vulnerability, making certain populations more exposed to external shocks. Risk, on the other hand, is the probability of a hazard or an external shock intersecting with vulnerability to produce adverse outcomes.

In cities such as Karachi and Lahore, risk is not just an environmental issue, but also one of class, as low-income communities often live in areas that have inadequate drainage system capacities that are vulnerable to urban flooding, thereby increasing their risk.

Resilience, in this context, must go beyond survival and instead focus on transforming the conditions that produce risk and vulnerability in the first place.

LIVED REALITIES

For many urban dwellers in Pakistan, resilience is not just about bouncing back from crises, but about navigating ongoing hardship and uncertainty. In recent years, extreme weather events and environmental crises, such as urban flooding, heatwaves and poor air quality, have exposed the inadequacies of resilience-building efforts that emphasise short-term recovery, while ignoring long-standing structural issues.

Major cities including Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad experience frequent urban flooding due to poor drainage systems and unregulated urban expansion, disproportionately affecting informal settlements that remain excluded from formal planning processes.

In these spaces, resilience is often portrayed as a community-driven effort but, in reality, it is shaped by larger systemic forces that dictate who gets access to safe housing, clean water and reliable infrastructure. The burden of resilience falls disproportionately on those least equipped to bear it, such as women, daily wage labourers and marginalised communities, who are expected to adapt while the conditions that create their vulnerability remain unchanged.

THE GOVERNANCE OF RESILIENCE

In Pakistan, urban governance is characterised by fragmented institutional frameworks, weak disaster response mechanisms and a lack of inclusive planning. The air quality crisis in Punjab exhibits these shortcomings every year. The absence of long-term regulatory enforcement and weak institutional coordination mean that the air quality crisis is treated as a seasonal emergency rather than a chronic governance failure.

The burden of adapting to deteriorating air quality falls on individuals who are expected to self-protect through personal measures, such as masks and air purifiers — solutions that are financially inaccessible for many. The lack of a robust crisis response mechanism and the failure to integrate air quality management into urban resilience planning reflects these broader governance shortcomings.

A more critical and justice-oriented approach to resilience demands moving beyond adaptation to address the root causes of vulnerability. Pakistan’s urban resilience agenda must prioritise inclusive urban planning that strengthens land-use policies to prevent the marginalisation of informal settlements and which integrates low-income communities into formal city planning processes.

To that end, strong local governments are essential for fostering resilience at the community level, by creating mechanisms that allow cities to anticipate, absorb and adapt to environment-related challenges. A well-functioning local government system can implement proactive measures, such as improved urban planning, targeted social protection programmes in times of crises, and climate-responsive policies tailored to the specific needs of different urban populations.

Local governments play a crucial role in developing early warning systems, strengthening public services and ensuring equitable infrastructure development, particularly for marginalised communities. Moreover, they can facilitate participatory decision-making, engaging communities in resilience-planning and ensuring that adaptation strategies address the lived realities of vulnerable groups.

Without a decentralised and empowered local governance structure, urban resilience remains fragmented, reactive and ineffective in addressing long-term environmental risks.

The writer is a Commonwealth Scholar at the University of Bristol in the UK


Published in Dawn, EOS, April 20th, 2025

Synchronized Global Climate Breakdown



 April 18, 2025
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Photo by Melissa Bradley

The world has entered a new climate era that threatens the fabric of civilization because it’s the reverse of the climate system that society was built upon. As it happens, the biosphere is starting to unravel as the world’s long-standing normal climate system shows clear signs of breaking down while planetary heat throws scientists a curve ball. The normal climate system behavior 0ver the decades is gone.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (which Trump cannot cripple like NOAA) on a global basis the past year was the hottest in the 175-year observational record with record-setting ocean heat and record-setting sea-level rise. Ninety percent (90%) of global warming is hidden from society absorbed by the oceans. Remarkably, the world’s oceans broke temperature records every single day for 12-months-running. (BBC). Now it’s gotten so excessive that scientists are worried about “payback.”

Everything is on the line, major ecosystems like Antarctica and the Amazon rainforest are regurgitating years of abuse; only recently, West Antarctica was rushed to Red Alert status by freaked-out polar scientists, and large swaths of the Amazon rainforest emit CO2 in competition with cars, trains and planes for the first time in human history, as rainfall at Summit Station (10500’ elevation) has been a strange eerie twist for Greenland. This is climate breakdown in full living color.

A recent article in Science/Alert d/d April 9, 2025 is filled with examples warning of climate breakdown: ‘Exceptional’ – Ongoing Global Heat Defies Climate Predictions.

Weird stuff that never happened thoroughout human history is happening to the climate system. For example, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service, since July 2023, the world has sustained a near-unbroken streak of record-breaking temperatures by the month every month, e.g. March 2025 was the hottest March ever recorded for the European Continent. And every month for the past 21 months has exceeded the dreaded 1.5C upper limit, to wit: “March was 1.6C above pre-industrial times, extending an anomaly so unusual that scientists are still trying to fully explain it. That we’re still at 1.6 °C above preindustrial is indeed remarkable,’ said Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London.” (Science/Alert)

It wasn’t so long ago when climate scientists thought exceeding global 1.5C above pre-industrial, labeled as the “danger zone” by the IPCC, would take decades. Guess what? It’s early!

Repercussions of Climate Breakdown – Worldwide

Anomalous/abnormal climate behavior is now the new normal. Extraordinary climate events from all corners of the world recently happened within a tight window of only 30 days of each other, events classified as either the worst ever or all-time record or unprecedented or once in 100 years, etc. Today, the planet is like a movie script entitled Climate Breakdown with climate disasters all happening all at the same time regardless of location or season. It’s a whacky script with people on the run, searching for a safe place.

In real life, evidence of this gonzo climate system is everywhere to be found, e.g., in March 2025 different parts of the European Continent experienced “the driest March on record” as other parts of the Continent experienced “the wettest March on record.” At the same time as Europeans didn’t know which end was up, climate change hit India, enduring record-setting scorching heat as Australia was swamped by all-time-record-smashing floods whilst Asia and South America hit new all-time records of devasting heat. This weird global climate system is off its rocker in synchronized fashion. Why is this happening? Human-generated burning of fossil fuels is at the heart of far too many concurrent global climate disasters to ignore any longer the necessity of sharp reductions in burning fossil fuels or suffer an explosive planet. Nothing is normal any longer. Get over it!

The following headlines are evidence of simultaneous, happening within 30 days of each other, record-breaking climate events across the globe (of note: not including Antarctica, which is clearly, and frighteningly, starting to breakdown in an “emergency mode” as is the world-famous Amazon rainforest and Arctic permafrost and Greenland:

Bigger Than Texas: The True Size of Australian’s Devasting FloodsThe Guardian, April 4, 2025 “The extent of flood waters that have engulfed Queensland over the past fortnight is so widespread it has covered an area more than four times the size of the United Kingdom. The inundation is larger than France and Germany combined – and is even bigger than Texas.”

Dry Topsoil Across Germany Could Impact Crop Yields Following March Dry SpellClean Energy Wire, April 11, 2025.

Floods Batter Italy after Florence Sees a Month’s Rainfall in One Day, The Watchers, March 16, 2025. “Red alerts were in effect across Italy, including Florence and Pisa, following an extreme flooding event that triggered multiple landslides and caused widespread damage.

Heavy Rains Hit Spain for Third Consecutive Week, Reuters, March 18, 2025. “Spaniards are still on edge after torrential rains four months ago in the eastern Valencia region led to the country’s deadliest natural disaster in decades.”

Record-breaking March Heat Reminds Us That Adaptation Cannot WaitThe Indian Express, March 20, 2025.

Record Heatwaves Hits South America: Urgent Call for Climate Action, Green.org, March 5, 2025. “This year has witnessed South America endure its hottest recorded temperatures, with some regions experiencing heat levels never seen before. Countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay are reporting temperatures soaring above 40°C (104°F). This isn’t just uncomfortable—it poses serious health risks and disrupts daily life.”

Extraordinary March Heatwave in Central Asia up to 10° C Hotter in Warming Climate, World Weather Attribution, April 4, 2025. “In March 2025, Central Asia experienced an unusually intense heatwave, with temperatures reaching record highs across the region.”

In the U.S, tornadoes in March were more than double the monthly average and three separate outbreaks produced more than 200 tornadoes. (National Centers for Environmental Information, March 2025) More to the point, from March 13th to 16th, 2025 the tornado outbreak was the largest on record for the month of March. Meanwhile, wildfires spread across southern Appalachia, exacerbated by additional fuel available from downed trees following Hurricane Helene (est. costs up to $250 billion). It’s a fact: Warmer ocean waters, a direct result of climate change, fuel stronger hurricanes with higher wind speeds, heavier rainfall, and more destructive storm surges. Hmm.

As stated in Science/Alert by Bill McGuire, climate scientist, University College London, the contrasting extremes “shows clearly how a destabilized climate means more and bigger weather extremes… As climate breakdown progresses, more broken records are only to be expected.” (Science/Alert)

Therefore, it’s fair to pose a nagging proposition of what happens when more all-time records continue to pile up one after another to what end? What is that end? And what can be done to stop the relentless pounding of harmful climate extremes. Maybe world leaders need to confront this reality by summoning climate scientists. But will Trump summon climate scientists for advice on how the US can help slow down the biggest, fiercest freight train in all human history barreling down the mountainside?

And what’s to stop this madness?

Robert Hunziker lives in Los Angeles and can be reached at rlhunziker@gmail.com.

Restoring the Wild: How Reintroducing Bison Could Revive Britain’s Landscapes and Ecosystems


April 18, 2025
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Photograph Source: Charles J. Sharp – CC BY-SA 4.0

Although there is no evidence that the European bison (Bison bonasus), known as wisent, ever roamed the islands of the United Kingdom, its genetic heritage suggests that it is attuned to the environment. The European bison is a hybrid that descends from the steppe bison (Bison priscus) and the aurochs (Bos primigenius), both extinct species that were once native to the UK.

Britain once hosted a broad range of great beasts. We slaughtered the bears, elk, and lynx many centuries ago. The wolves lasted the longest. Now, only the names of their crags, hills, meres, or the ubiquitous deep pits where we caught and bound them for torture recall their former existence. As with the aquamarine blue moor frogs, black storks, and night herons, humans hastened the end of them all.

Today, one in seven of England’s surviving species is also threatened with extinction. In large part, much of the landscape that appears to be so green is dead. Chemicals and pesticides in the soil have killed smaller species. The disappearance of these minute species has caused a chain reaction within the natural order, starving, poisoning, or otherwise compromising the food chain.

Gone is the food for some creatures or the cover for others. The living space that remains is highly restricted and commonly of poor quality. The absence of one pivotal creature can mean the loss of natural function upon which others depend. Even when our understanding of this is crystal clear, we respond in a reluctant, slow-motion fashion.

The Downside of Conservation

Conservation comes in many forms, and my beginning was not with the wild but with the tame. At a time when you can drive through the landscape and see so many of the old black or spotted sheep, white long-horned cattle, or brick-red pigs more or less everywhere, it’s hard to remember that these relics were nearly extinct by the 1970s. Farming at that time was already set to conquer its Everests of “improvement.”

Rivers of government cash flowed into subsidies for everything imaginable, from the import of faster-growing continental livestock to new and super-productive crops, to fertilizers that flowed from white plastic sacks rather than freely from cows’ backsides, to pesticides that killed their target species, and much more besides.

Guilds of focused advisors in drab brown overalls and tiny vans met farmers free of charge to explain how to employ this largesse. Colleges produced legions of indoctrinated students who marched out in ranks to feed the world. Research stations, laboratories, and experimental farms, all centrally funded, were established throughout the land.

Meadows full of dancing wildflowers or woodlands where spotted flycatchers dipped and weaved to catch beakfuls of insects twirling in sunlit strobes did not fit the narrative of those times. Most were plowed under or ripped free from the soil that had held them for centuries, awaiting incineration on well-prepared pyres.

Birds of all sorts died in myriads when cornfields, old pastures, and orchards were sprayed with new toxins. Frogs returned to breed in the spring to discover their ancestral ponds had vanished. Photographers produced heartbreaking black-and-white images of them sitting in massed aggregations on their drying spawn.

Breeds of livestock with their roots buried deep in Britain’s culture were discarded as well. It did not matter that they had adapted to frugal living to produce something—a little meat, milk, horn, or dung to fertilize small fields—for folk who had nothing and could offer them less.

Who cared if they had been brought by the Norse, the Romans, or the Celts? They were out of time. Small or slow-growing and difficult to handle with independent spirits, the sooner they were all gone, the better. Their qualities of disease resistance, fine wool, or superlative meat meant nothing. Any adaptation to specific environments was meaningless in a time when whole landscapes could be rearranged.

Farmers Are Not the Problem

To be clear, farmers are not the problem. The problem is the great false idol of the industrial machine that so many unblinkingly worship. In general, farmers are a well-humored bunch. The old ones with good stories are always the best, and I have spent many hours sitting in their cozy kitchens listening to their tales as small dogs snoozed next to the iron cooker and busy wives bustled to serve cakes.

There was slight Henry Cowan, who regretted until the day he died that he had allowed a passing dealer to buy his last two horses, kept long after the others had gone, for the glue works. Tall Francis Watson, a big bear of a man who, at the age of 17, had guarded the palace of the Nizams in Hyderabad and whose great joy it was to linger for no particular purchase in our village shop to converse with its Pakistani proprietors in Urdu. And Miss Bartholomew, whose old cats pissed on her house chairs and whose ancient pet pigs were turned by her stockman daily to ease their bed sores when they could no longer stand.

All of them were once characters of great color who have now passed in time. Their world was simpler, of clear rights and dark wrongs. The reapers who harvested in their golden youths are not of the sort that scythe the earth today. The prospect that the land that they had cleared of rocks, drained and deforested, and then reforested, enriched, and impoverished in the swiftest succession would ever be used again for any purpose other than farming would not have seemed plausible to them at all. The notion that some of England’s oldest beasts could be restored to accelerate nature’s gainwould have seemed absurd.

The Benefits of Bison

So why bother bringing bison back to Britain when we could be content to sit back in our slippers and reintegrate beavers into the countryside, which, in theory at least, is as easy as falling off a stationary bus? The answer, in large part, is process. If, as it seems tantalizingly tangible, we are going to move from an era of unequivocal public subsidy for farming 70 percent of the British landmass (23 million acres) to a time when public money will be employed more evenly to repair nature, then at least a few of the large creatures we hunted to extinction may be restored in a limited fashion to assist this endeavor.

Bison, for example, are not cattle. They are high forest browsers. If you reinstall them in dark, dull plantation woodlands with little biodiversity value, they will smash and debark big trees, wallow in sand soils, gouge out damp clays, provide pesticide-free blood and dung in abundance for insects, and crunch down woody scrub at random in a jagged and irregular manner.

They rip the bark from the stems of broad-leafed trees in a frozen winter by inserting the teeth of their lower palate under the surface of the tree, gripping it tightly with their upper jaw, and tugging sharply downward in order to “whip crack” the length of the stem before it tumbles away like a falling curtain to be consumed.

A single bison can eat 32 kilos of bark in a day. Multiply this by a stamping herd, hoarfrosted with steaming nostrils, and the impact of bison on woodland structure becomes obvious. Whole groves of succulent, young trees are retarded or misshapen. Their wounds leach resin or sap, which snails cluster into to exploit.

Some bare areas may scab over and scar, while others decay completely for woodpeckers to peck full of voids. Bats, martens, and birds use these cavities as nesting sites, while specialists such as willow tits make their own abodes in desiccated pockets rotted down by mycelia of many sorts. Nature loves randomness, and there is more in the simplest of forms.

The fur from a bison’s woolly coat will be gathered by birds from the grasping thorns of bramble or rose or from their backs directly when it peels in scrofulous mats in the springtime. This warm, snuggly material, which is ideal for their nests, will be filched from them by small mammals and taken underground. The repetitive wallowing of bison in dry sandbanks scours these vegetation-free features in random patches.

In their well-trampled base lie easily excavatable egg-laying areas for sand lizards, while mining insects pit any exposed standing banks with their tunnels. Over time, the fragrant possibility exists that the European bee-eater, a child-painted wonder of yellows, blues, browns, and greens, will one day grace them as sites for their nest tunnels.

Bison will, in short, do some things that cattle are incapable of doing and others that cattle don’t do very well. This, of course, is hardly surprising, given that ten thousand years of preparation for domestication has profoundly altered the shape, biology, and behavior of cattle, while bison have retained their wild being intact.

This excerpt is adapted from Derek Gow’s book Birds, Beasts and Bedlam: Turning My Farm Into a Lost Ark for Species (Chelsea Green Publishing, 2022). It is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) by permission of Chelsea Green Publishing and produced for the web by Earth | Food | Life, a project of the Independent Media Institute. 

Derek Gow is a farmer, nature conservationist, and author of Bringing Back the Beaver (Chelsea Green, 2022) and Birds, Beasts and Bedlam (Chelsea Green, 2022). Born in Dundee, Scotland, he left school when he was 17 and worked in agriculture for five years. Inspired by the writing of Gerald Durrell, Dow jumped at the chance to manage a European wildlife park in central Scotland in the late 1990s before developing two nature centers in England. He now lives with his children, Maysie and Kyle, on a 300-acre farm on the Devon/Cornwall border, which he is rewilding. Gow has played a significant role in the reintroduction of the Eurasian beaver, the water vole, and the white stork in England. He is currently working on a reintroduction project for the wildcat.

The Failure of US Conservation Groups to Criticize Wolf Slaughter

April 18, 2025
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Photo: George Wuerthner.

The state of Washington recently reported that its endangered wolf population had declined for the first time in 16 years. The state confirmed that it has 230 wolves, compared to 254 wolves in the previous year.

According to figures released by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington’s overall wolf population in 2024 decreased by at least 9.44%, and successful breeding pairs declined by 25%.

What accounts for this decline? Well, 37 wolves are documented as mortalities. The Washington Fish and Wildlife Department killed four wolves after the animals had conflicts with livestock.

In addition, an unknown number of wolves died from suspected poaching. Two wolves died while being captured by Fish and Wildlife. One wolf was killed by a cougar, and one by other wolves. One wolf was shot attacking livestock, one was shot in self-defense, and one died after ingesting plastic, according to Fish and Wildlife.

However, the most significant source of mortality was a consequence of tribal wolf slaughter. Colville tribal members accounted for more than half of the annual wolf mortality, killing a minimum of 19 wolves.

This ongoing killing of dozens of wolves by tribal members has been occurring for years, and it is hindering the recovery of endangered wolves in Washington. For instance, in 2022, tribal members slaughtered 22 wolves.

Wolves are covered statewide under the state’s endangered species law. Killing one of the animals without authorization can carry penalties of up to a year in jail or a $5,000 fine under the state’s law.

Last summer, the Fish and Wildlife Commission narrowly voted against downlisting wolves from “endangered” to either “threatened” or “sensitive,” moves that would have led to lower penalties for poaching and slightly easier access to permits to kill wolves that attack livestock.

Due to their Endangered Species Status, it is illegal for any citizen to kill in Washington State except in special instances, such as wolf-livestock depredation. However, tribal members are exempt from hunting regulations that restrict other citizens.

Unlike wolf trapping in states like Montana and Idaho, which allow the carnage of wolves, there are still limits on the number of animals that any individual trapper or hunter can take. However, the Colville tribe permits the trapping and hunting of wolves by any tribal member without limitations.

The high mortality of wolves by tribal members is setting back wolf recovery in the state. In particular, the Colville Reservation is a critical bridge between eastern Washington, where most of the state’s wolf population is found, and the colonization of the Cascades and western Washington.

The reservation contains excellent wolf habitat, which is why the tribe continues to massacre wolves in this area. The reservation is, in effect, a mortality sink. The good habitat (prey base) attracts new wolves and leads to their death.
Wolves return to the same places as the Colville Reservation because it is a suitable habitat for prey, and more get killed.

As much as I am dismayed by the tribal slaughter of wolves, I am even more outraged by the apparent willingness of so-called conservation organizations to accept the destruction of wildlife and wildlands by tribal people that they would denounce if perpetrated by anyone else.

While a few wolf advocacy organizations clinically noted the Colville tribe’s role in hindering wolf recovery in the state, none have chosen to criticize the tribe publicly.

This lack of accountability by the conservation community is part of what I call the Indian Iron Curtain, where environmental organizations are unwilling or, in some instances, even support the destruction of wildlife or wildlands done by tribal groups, which they would otherwise condemn if done by anyone else.

Not only does this perpetuate the myth that tribal people are somehow “natural environmentalists,” but it harms the wildlands and wildlife that are impacted. The annual tribal slaughter of bison by Yellowstone National Park, which many organizations support if a tribal member does the killing, is a perfect example of this double standard.

Throughout the West, these groups raise money off the backs of wolves. If a rancher or hunter kills wolves, I will get a message telling me to donate money to them to “save” wolves from slaughter.

One lame excuse I got from the ED of a wolf advocacy group for their lack of opposition to tribal slaughter was that the tribes have a “legal” right to kill wolves without restriction. Yet the same organization has no trouble blasting the annual carnage of wolves by hunters and trappers as unacceptable in states where it is legal to kill them.

For instance, a few years ago, there was outrage from conservation groupsafter 26 wolves were killed by trappers and hunters north of Yellowstone Park. Still, the very same organizations are silent about tribal wolf killings on the Colville reservation and elsewhere (like Alaska).]

Brooks Fahy of Predator Defense is one of the few people willing to condemn the tribal killings publicly.

Fahy says:” The silence from the “conservation” community on this subject is deafening.”

Fahy quips: “The Colville Tribe has essentially created an iron curtain of traps and bullets by preventing wolves from dispersing westward into the Cascades.”

As Fahy notes: “It does not make you an anti-Native American to be angry at what some of the tribes are doing, just like it doesn’t mean you’re antisemitic if you’re outraged over what Israel is doing in Gaza. It’s time to condemn unacceptable behavior.”

Most conservation organizations are loath to criticize tribes due to historical mistreatment, but in the end, it is the wildlife that suffers today. Why should wolves (grizzlies, salmon, bison, old-growth forests, etc.) have to accept the burden of past abuse of Indian people?

The double standard for tribal groups is part of a long-term change in conservation missions. When I came of age in the environmental movement in the 1980s and 1990s, there was a movement to consider ecology, evolutionary processes, and biocentric perspectives as the priority standard in advocacy. Since then, I have seen a significant shift towards anthropocentric attitudes and values in many organizations, to the detriment of overall conservation goals.

Social justice needs to be considered, but Nature Justice should have priority, for in the end, there is no social justice on a dead planet. We need to set limits on human exploitation, no matter who is doing it.

It’s time to take down the Indian Iron Curtain and hold all people who abuse, mistreat, or exploit Nature accountable. The wolves, bears, salmon, bison, old-growth forests, and wildlands will be glad you did.

George Wuerthner has published 36 books including Wildfire: A Century of Failed Forest Policy


TRUMP’S TARIFFS WHAT THEY MEAN FOR THE WORLD

As US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs trigger worldwide market chaos and geopolitical fallout, the question on everyone’s lips is what the endgame behind the radical American government actions is.



Khurram Husain 
Published April 20, 2025 
DDAWN/PRISM

Donald Trump is about to learn that the world is a lot bigger than he imagined, and the stick he is trying to wield to bring it to kneel before him, a lot smaller.

More than the tariffs themselves, the erratic nature of his decision-making, his mercurial temperament and the rough treatment he has meted out to friends, allies and enemies alike will have the most lasting impact on America’s position in the world.

We are seeing nothing less than a superpower gone rogue and all other countries in the world will now start searching for ways to protect themselves from its mercurial impulses. The single-most important message that has gone out from the Trump White House is that America is no longer a reliable partner for trade or security.

THE IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

In the immediate term though, it will be necessary to tally up the costs. For Pakistan, the tariffs present a mixed outlook. For now, Pakistani exports will face a 10 percent increased tariff in the United States, but so will all Pakistan’s competitors, except China, whose exporters face a trade-killing 145 percent tariff. One way to tally up the costs is to start counting the dollars.

As US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs trigger worldwide market chaos and geopolitical fallout, the question on everyone’s lips is what the endgame behind the radical American government actions is. Khurram Husain explores the possible motivations as well as the deeper, more dangerous unravelling of the post-war global order and what it means for fragile economies such as Pakistan’s…

A recent policy note put out by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), titled ‘Impact of Unilateral Tariff Increase by the US on Pakistani Exports’, reached the conclusion that the tariffs could shave off as much as $1.4 billion from Pakistan’s total exports. The authors assumed a tariff rate of 29 percent, which has been “paused” for 90 days since the day it was supposed to go into effect. Whether or not Pakistan actually faces a tariff rate of this magnitude remains to be seen, but the note is potentially useful in giving us an upper ceiling on what we can expect the tariff impact to be on Pakistan’s exports.

More importantly though, what matters the most for Pakistan is that the world is changing rapidly, and in ways so fundamental that it poses a near existential challenge for the country. To understand why, consider: since 1988, Pakistan has availed itself of at least 10 bailouts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a record high figure. There are not more than a handful of countries that can match Pakistan’s track record of going to the IMF for bailouts. The number of facilities that Pakistan has taken is even larger, since some of these bailouts utilised drawings from more than one facility.

Each bailout came when Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves had depleted to a point of near default, and the continuation of the country’s external trade was at risk. By 1999, for example, the energy supply chain was perilously close to breaking point. In 2008, the country’s financial system was teetering on the edge of full scale meltdown, with the stock market frozen and a run on the banks in the early stages. In 2013, the energy supply chain broke down in earnest. In 2019, action was taken before things could get to a perilous stage, but in 2022 Pakistan was back on the brink of default and a near breakdown in the energy supply chain.

Any one of these outcomes — a run on the banks, a breakdown in the energy supply chain, a default on payment obligations to international creditors — would have been catastrophic. Any one of these events could send the country towards a complete breakdown of social order.

The only reason Pakistan averted that outcome was because of a foreign-funded bailout from multilateral creditors. The IMF programme underpinned this bailout, but the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and then, in some instances, support from the Paris Club on debt restructuring were part of the overall offering. Pakistan has spent more than half of its time since the year 1988 labouring under successive fund programmes, struggling (and often failing) to pass their reviews.

Even today, the country teeters on the edge of a fragile stability. An ongoing IMF programme with stringent performance criteria keeps the government wedded to a severe path of austerity, in which growth is next to impossible. So long as it remains on this path, the economy remains stable and its minimum import requirements, especially of energy, continue to be met. But the moment the government deviates from the path, it will hasten a return to the cliff’s edge of default and dysfunction one more time.


What would happen if, one day, Pakistan were to land up in yet another balance-of-payments crisis, with the foreign exchange reserves depleted and imports grinding to a halt, and there was nobody willing to come with a bailout? That is the real danger that is now looming upon the country, and it matters far more than the dollar cost to Pakistan’s exports in the immediate term due to the sanctions.

The thing to note with these tariffs, along with all the other actions being taken by the Trump administration, is that this world that had kept Pakistan afloat since 1988, coming to the country’s rescue every time, is now fading away.

Trump has already threatened to walk out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato). He has walked America out of a number of international organisations, such as the World Health Organisation. At some point in the future, which is difficult to pinpoint, America will walk out of the key institutions that make up this international order — the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the IMF, the World Bank and, yes, even the United Nations (UN).

In substantial measure, this is already happening, as the superpower has made its continued engage­ments with these organisations more and more transactional, telling them to adhere more and more to American foreign policy interests to secure continued American patronage.

It has been evident for many years now that a breaking point is coming soon. With the arrival of President Trump, and his way of doing things, that breaking point now seems to be coming into sight.

What would happen if, one day, Pakistan were to land up in yet another balance-of-payments crisis, with the foreign exchange reserves depleted and imports grinding to a halt, and there was nobody willing to come with a bailout?

That is the real danger that is now looming upon the country, and it matters far more than the dollar cost to Pakistan’s exports in the immediate term due to the sanctions.

ERRATICNESS AND UNCERTAINTY

What is it about the tariffs that makes such an outcome more likely? Consider all the voices around the world now that are warning that a geopolitical and monetary order that was born after World War II is now disintegrating.

In truth, this order has been disintegrating for many years now, and its journey towards ruination is marked by spectacular events, such as the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Euro Crisis of 2010, and the Great Brexit debacle. But now the madness that usually afflicts great powers in decline has risen to the highest levels of power in the global order — the American presidency — and is driving actions that are so erratic that modelling them and their impact has become next to impossible.

The erratic decision-making, and the extreme uncertainty that it creates, were on full display the day the tariffs were supposed to go into effect — midnight of April 9, 2025. But as the sun rose on that tumultuous day, stock markets around the world collapsed and then, surprisingly, bond markets also collapsed.

Usually, these two move in opposite directions, since money pulled out of one flows into the other. The bond markets are usually considered a safe haven for times when the stock markets are wracked by excess volatility. But, on this day, both tanked simultaneously.

This was the strongest indicator that the financial markets are now engulfed with an uncertainty that chokes their models. The hardest hit was the Nasdaq Composite, which plunged by 11.3 percent in morning trade, followed by the S&P500 which fell by 7.2 percent. The last time global stocks had seen such massive declines was when the Covid pandemic hit and the lockdowns were announced. But alongside these declines, the bond markets were also seeing a near meltdown.

There are some prices that are foundational for the world economy. The price of oil, for example, drives global growth and inflation, and is often a barometer for an upcoming recession. Another such foundational price in world financial markets is the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond. This yield underpins virtually the entire derivatives markets around the world, which sees trillions of dollars of turnover on a daily basis. The price of the 10-year Treasury bond is arguably one of the most important ones in the world. On April 9, this price started plummeting.

Bonds are tricky creatures. Their prices and yields move in opposite directions; when the price falls the yield rises, under the assumption that you are buying the bond at a cheaper price and when you redeem it upon maturity, you will get more money because its value on maturity will be higher than the price you paid to purchase it.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries started spiking from April 7, and by April 10 it had climbed by more than 30 basis points. The last time this had happened was in 2013, when the Federal Reserve had provided the first hint that it might start to end its programme of easing interest rates that it had launched to support the economy during the Great Financial Crisis.

Confronted by this dual movement — spiking treasury yields and collapsing stock prices — Trump succumbed and, before the day was out, announced a “pause” on his plan to tariff the world.


US President Donald Trump holds a poster at the tariffs announcement on April 2: the tariffs were announced on what was billed as “Liberation Day” by Trump in a rambling press conference | AFP


WHAT’S WITH THE TARIFFS ANYWAY?

Two hallmarks of the Trump way of doing things came into sharp focus during these days — the bombast and the erraticism. The tariffs were announced as “Liberation Day” by Trump in a rambling press conference, and the pause was announced haphazardly, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent trying to argue that this was the plan all along, in one of the most unconvincing attempts to spin an erratic decision.

The speed with which they were announced, the size of the tariffs, and the ensuing meltdown on the financial markets followed by a hurried retreat triggered a larger conversation around what exactly was the reasoning behind the tariffs in the first place. In the days that followed, this conversation played itself out on just about every platform where the global economic conversation takes place, and every voice in the world weighed in on it.

Broadly speaking, three large schools of thought emerged. With some overlaps between them, they can be divided thus. The first group argued that a crude attempt was being made to use tariffs as a weapon to reverse a deteriorating trade position with respect to China. The second group argued this was more geopolitical than economic in nature. And last but not least was the argument that I call a version of the “Madman Theory”, which says there is no underlying rationality here and it all flows from the mercurial impulses of a corrupt and irrational man who craves attention and popularity more than anything else.

‘WEAPON AGAINST CHINA’

The first group likened the tariffs to what they called a Mar-a-Lago Accord. In reality, there was no actual accord, and no actual meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club, after which the accord was named. The name is a reference to the Plaza Accords of 1985, in which the US assembled all its major trading partners and practically forced them to take steps to curb their exports to the US and to bring down the value of the dollar, which had soared in value, leading the Reagan administration to believe it was eroding America’s competitiveness on the global stage.

One paper summed up the thinking behind the Mar-a-Lago Accord. It was titled ‘A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System’ and written by a relatively unknown trader at a private financial advisory firm. The author, Stephen Miran, was later appointed Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors.

In the paper, Miran points out that the US has been hit by a “China Shock”, a term popularised in a 2016 paper by three economists who argued that persistent trade deficits that the US was running with China was hollowing out America’s manufacturing industry, stagnating wages, and leading to political polarisation and a backlash against globalisation within the American working classes.

He says the shock happened because the US provides the world with its reserve currency — the US dollar — so every other currency can depreciate in value but the dollar cannot. Between 2008 and 2022, for instance, the dollar appreciated by almost 35 percent according to the US Dollar Index. Chinese exports around the world skyrocketed during these years, while America lost trade share massively.

To arrest this trend, then to reverse it, Miran said the US should pursue policies that seek to help bring down the value of the dollar, and link these policies to its security umbrella. He cites Treasury Secretary Bessent, who says that “more clearly segmenting the international economy into zones based on common security and economic system” will become necessary. The idea was to tariff Chinese exports to America, then tell the countries of the rest of the world to follow suit and apply similar tariffs on China or face the prospects of tariffs on their exports to the US.

In a nutshell, the Mar-a-Lago Accord was going to force every country in the world to choose who they want to trade with — the United States or China. It would build on the view that “national security and trade are joined at the hip”, in Miran’s words, and carve the world into large blocs. Countries would enjoy trade privileges with the US as well as a security umbrella provided by it, or they would be left out in the cold to fend for themselves. The target of all this was Europe, the oil kingdoms of the Middle East and the countries of North-east Asia, in particular, Japan, Taiwan and Korea.

This is what they had begun to launch in the first week of April with the tariff announcements. But two things happened that caused Trump to beat a hasty retreat. First was the meltdown in the financial markets, which was anticipated to some extent but not the sheer ferocity with which it hit.

Second, and equally importantly, the world did not buckle the way Trump had anticipated it would. Despite his bombastic announcement that world leaders were lining up to “kiss my ass”, the White House claimed 75 countries had reached out to Trump but never provided a list of who they were, leading to widespread talk that the figure was grossly exaggerated. In fact, China announced equally aggressive tariffs of its own against American products, and the European Union announced a 25 percent tariff on American products as well.

What is strange, however, is that the tariffs have no takers within America’s economy. In the past, whenever tariffs were used to protect American industry or workers from foreign competition, they were always demanded by big industry or agriculture interests. The famous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, for instance, was demanded by industry and agriculture, and opposed by academic economists. All other tariffs imposed since World War II were demanded by auto-makers, big steel or other industry interests.

But the Trump tariffs have been roundly criticised by all — manufacturers, agricultural companies, Wall Street — and no large labour union has voiced support for them. It’s strange that the tariffs are supposed to be about restoring manufacturing competitiveness, but manufacturers themselves are apprehensive at best, and opposed at most, to them.


A visual representation of the change in America and China’s share of world trade from 2000 to 2024: from America’s perspective, somebody had to pull the trigger on China’s ascent | Econovis



‘IT’S GEOPOLITICS’

This is where the second theory comes in. One proponent of this theory is Doug Irwin, author of Clashing Over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy, published in 2017, and probably the leading historian of tariffs as a trade weapon in American history. Speaking to the Financial Times during these days, Irwin centred everything on geopolitics, stating: “When we think about the history of the world economy over the past few centuries, what is striking is how important geopolitics is.”

Countries took bold unilateral steps to open up their trade with the rest of the world in times when they enjoyed an unchallenged economic and military dominance over all other countries. He cites the example of England’s unilateral repeal of the Corn Laws in the mid-19th century.

But trade frictions began to emerge in the latter 19th century once Germany emerged as an important military and economic rival. “It’s very hard to have or to sustain an open, free-trading world economy,” Irwin told the Financial Times, “when you have major players that are in potential military or political conflict with one another.”

Something similar is happening now, he argues. After the end of the Cold War, the US enjoyed a dominant military and economic position over the rest of the world, and led the way in bold new opening up of trade vistas globally with the creation of the WTO in 2001.

“What really brought that to a close was the rise of China and the rise of tensions with the US in terms of what China’s motives were,” said Irwin. “And inevitably, in some sense, that brings about trade friction.” The tension was building for many years, and Trump’s predecessors tried their own ways to deal with it, but it was Trump that “really changed the game in terms of actually explicitly confronting China.”

‘IT’S MADNESS’

The easiest of the theories to understand and explain is the Madman Theory. This one argues there is no rationality behind Trump’s moves. Rather they are driven by ego, xenophobia, corruption and just plain stupidity. “The entire American world position has been shattered by monkeys fiddling with the knobs in the cockpit,” writes Anusar Farooqui, an influential but controversial essayist, on his private Substack. There is a veritable literary feast of words in describing the mercurial impulses that fire Trump’s pistons. British journalist Janan Ganesh says in the Financial Times, “It is irrationality pure and simple.” In other places, he is a “narcissist” or a “solipsist” or just a plain “moron”.

Trump himself contributes much material to such descriptions. In the midst of the market turmoil of April 9, he said “people were jumping a little bit out of line, they were getting yippy.” When his Treasury Secretary tried to argue the tariff pause was part of the strategy all along, Trump himself said it was “written from the heart.” More recently, Vice President J.D. Vance said he was hopeful that the United Kingdom and the US could reach a trade deal because “the president really loves the United Kingdom. He loved the queen. He admires and loves the king.” And so on.

A more sinister take is floated by Anne Applebaum, author of Autocracy Inc., writing in The Atlantic. Trump’s behaviour is not irrational, she argues. It is self-serving and directly benefits him or a small coterie of people in his circle. America is transforming, she argues, into a kleptocracy like Russia or China, “where the rulers’ conflict of interest are simply part of the fabric of the system.” Importantly, she points out how the Trump family has built a cryptocurrency business “that could, in practice, serve as a vehicle for anyone to pay him indirect bribes.”

Applebaum argues the actions of autocrats in a kleptocracy make sense once you follow the money. “The right question to ask about Trump’s tariff policy is also financial: how will this enormous change to American trade policy benefit Trump?” she asks. Companies and countries now have an incentive “to play up to the president, to offer him political donations and maybe even to offer business deals to him, his family or his friends, in order to get some kind of exception made for themselves or their industry.”

THE INEVITABILITY OF IT ALL

It is possible all of these explanations are true to varying degrees. The opening of the 21st century does look similar to the closing decades of the 19th century in the sense of an emerging power increasingly challenging the economic and military might of the world’s superpower. Whether Trump had won or not, trade frictions between the US and China were going to grow.

In fashioning its response to this challenge, the US would necessarily leverage its position as the world’s leading consumer market, the supplier of the world’s only reserve currency, and the world’s leading military power as well.

Miran and others behind the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord seem to have beat others in figuring out how to do this. But when it came to the implementation, the whole gambit suffered in the inept and admittedly kleptocratic hands of Trump and his autocratic tendencies, as well as his suspicion of anything foreign.

Perhaps it was always meant to be like this. From America’s perspective, somebody had to pull the trigger on China’s ascent. But it would take a madman to do so, given the heavily interconnected nature of today’s global economy.

Such a madman brought many other motivations to the game, besides the strategic imperative of forging an aggressive response to the China Shock. And those “other motivations”, described well by Applebaum, could be the undoing of the entire global position of the US altogether.

The writer is a business and economy journalist.
He can be reached via email at
khurram.husain@gmail.com and on X: @khurramhusain

Published in Dawn, EOS, April 20th, 2025