HIV infections would increase by 10% average if CDC funding for HIV testing ends, NIH-funded Johns Hopkins Medicine study predicts

Johns Hopkins Medicine

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Timely HIV diagnosis and treatment are critical to preventing transmission. To help make this happen, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides funding for HIV testing to local health departments and community organizations. In a new NIH-funded Johns Hopkins Medicine study, researchers used a computer model to quantify the effect of funding cuts for HIV testing. They estimate that HIV infections could increase an average of 10% in 18 U.S. states if this funding is interrupted or ended.

“The HIV epidemic has been going on for 40 years,” says study lead researcher Todd T. Fojo, M.D., M.H.S., associate professor of medicine at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. “The United States has made tremendous progress over the years, with fewer people getting infected and better treatments for those who are infected. To enter a world where that suddenly reverses would be a big deal. Treating someone with HIV over a lifetime is expensive, so any HIV infection you can prevent saves a lot of money.”

The study was published February 4 in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

“Once you are diagnosed with HIV, you get treated, and in turn, you can’t transmit it,” Fojo says. “If more people are unaware they have HIV because effective testing isn’t available, it is more likely that they will transmit the virus to someone else.”

The simulation model examined HIV infections across 18 states, with populations representing different groups of age, race and sex. The model estimates how frequently populations are being tested and how many of those tests are being done using CDC funding.

“Looking across the 18 states in total, you would have 12,751 more infections over the next five years,” Fojo says. “That’s 10% more infections than you would have if CDC-funded tests continue at their current pace.”

Fojo says that the number varies widely across states.

“The biggest driver is how much testing is already going on in the state and how much testing is done through CDC funding,” Fojo explained. “For example, in Washington state, our model predicts that the number of infections increases by 2.7% without CDC-funded tests, but in Louisiana, infections would increase by almost 30%. We know that CDC-funded tests are diagnosing more infections in Louisiana than in Washington state, so the model’s prediction makes sense.”

“In general,” he adds, “If you look at states that have more of a rural HIV epidemic, those states tend to be more impacted when you take away funding for HIV testing.”

Fojo says the next steps in this research are to get a more comprehensive idea of what loss of CDC funding for other prevention activities may look like, and what would be the effect of those cuts on HIV infections in the United States.

Other Johns Hopkins Medicine researchers include Melissa Schnure, Ph.D., Sc.M., Kelly A. Gebo, M.D., M.P.H., and Maunank Shah, M.D., Ph.D. Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health include Ryan Forster, Ph.D., Keri N. Althoff, Ph.D., M.P.H., David W. Dowdy, M.D., Ph.D., and Parastu Kasaie, Ph.D., M.S. Ruchita Balasubramanian, M.Phil, and William P. Hanage, Ph.D., of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health also contributed to this research, as did D. Scott Batey, Ph.D., M.S.W., of the Tulane School of Social Work.

All authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

The research was funded by the National Institutes of Health grant number R01MD018539.

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Journal

Clinical Infectious Diseases

 

Swapping meat and dairy for plant-based foods cuts climate pollution by 35%, randomized clinical trial shows

Study finds simple dietary shift dramatically lowers greenhouse gas emissions while delivering major health benefits

Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — A simple change on the dinner plate could deliver a powerful climate impact. New research published in BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health shows that replacing meat and dairy with a low‑fat vegan diet that includes soybeans reduced diet‑related greenhouse gas emissions by 35%. For the average individual, that reduction is comparable to eliminating roughly 600 miles of driving each year.

“If you’re looking for a powerful way to shrink your carbon footprint, start with what’s on your plate,” says Hana Kahleova, MD, PhD, director of clinical research at the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine and the lead author of the new research. “Making this swap can help you reduce your greenhouse gas emissions as much as eliminating 600 miles of driving.”

The study analyzed dietary records from a randomized clinical trial of postmenopausal women who adopted a low‑fat vegan diet with half a cup of soybeans daily for 12 weeks. Researchers linked participants’ food intake to environmental impact databases to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and energy demand associated with their diets.

The results were striking:

• Greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 35%.
• Total energy required to produce participants’ food fell by 34%.
• The reductions were driven largely by eliminating meat and dairy products.

The dietary intervention also produced major health improvements. In the original clinical trial, participants experienced a 92% reduction in severe hot flashes and lost an average of about 8 pounds.

The researchers found that GHGE decreased in the vegan group by 35% (662.7 g CO2-eq/person day), compared with no change in the control group. This decrease was mainly attributable to reduced meat and dairy consumption. Per person, the reduction is equivalent to eliminating approximately 600 miles. The reduction in GHGE also correlated with a reduction in severe hot flashes for the women in the study.

Cumulative energy demand (CED), which estimates total energy used to produce, process, package, transport, store, and dispose of the waste of food, decreased in the vegan group by 34% (-4956 kJ/person day), compared with no change in the control group. The decrease was also mainly attributable to reduced meat and dairy consumption. The reduction in CED is equivalent to the electricity required to power an average U.S. household for roughly two hours.

“This research shows that replacing meat and dairy with plant‑based foods can dramatically cut emissions while improving health at the same time,” says Dr. Kahleova.

Physicians Committee research published in JAMA Network Open last year also showed the benefits of a vegan diet for reducing GHGE and CED.

“Dietary choices are one of the most immediate actions individuals can take to reduce climate pollution,” Dr. Kahleova added. “Even modest changes, when adopted widely, could have a meaningful impact on climate change.”

Food production is a major contributor to climate change, and diets high in animal products generate substantially more greenhouse gases than plant‑based diets. Researchers say widespread dietary shifts toward plant‑based foods could play a key role in reducing the environmental footprint of the global food system. A recent survey found that nearly half of Americans would consider eating a plant-based diet to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Founded in 1985, the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine is a nonprofit organization that promotes preventive medicine, conducts clinical research, and encourages higher standards for ethics and effectiveness in education and research.

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Journal

BMJ Nutrition Prevention & Health

DOI

10.1136/bmjnph-2025-001447 

Method of Research

Randomized controlled/clinical trial

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Environmental footprint of a soybean-supplemented low-fat vegan diet in postmenopausal women: a secondary analysis of a randomised clinical trial

 

Much of humanity may face hot-dry extremes five times more often by end-century

The increase may hit nearly 30% of the global population with extreme events more dangerous than heat or drought alone, especially in low-income tropical nations

American Geophysical Union

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WASHINGTON — In their current state, climate policies around the world could leave a significant chunk of the global population exposed to simultaneous extreme heat and drought over five times more often by the end of this century than during the mid-to-late 20th century.  

In a new study, researchers project the increase will affect 28% of the global population overall, concentrated in low-income, tropical nations that have contributed only a small fraction of humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions to date. 

“Heat and drought amplify each other,” said Di Cai, a climate scientist at the Ocean University of China and lead author of the study. “In compound hot-dry extremes, they lead to water restrictions and unstable food prices. For outdoor workers, it is dangerous.” 

The study will appear Tuesday, April 7 in Geophysical Research Letters, AGU’s journal for high-impact, innovative, and timely articles on major advances across the geosciences. 

Amplified Extremes 

When heat and drought strike together, the damage often exceeds the sum of what they can inflict separately. Wildfire risk, agricultural losses, and heat-related mortality can all spike. 

These extreme combos are already on the rise. When the researchers divided Earth’s land into cells on a grid and compared heat and drought occurrence in each cell, they found that, on geographical average, Earth’s land areas weathered roughly four hot-dry events per year from 2001 to 2020. By their estimates, that’s about twice as often as in the preindustrial period from 1850 to 1900. 

To see how conditions might evolve through the end of this century, the team analyzed 152 existing simulations based on eight climate models, considering various scenarios of population growth and global warming outlined in the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For this study, they defined hot-dry events as days with a high temperature in the top 10% and at least moderate drought, both relative to records from the 1961 to 1990 baseline. 

The effort required processing terabytes of data, a significant challenge. “The more chaotic the climate becomes, the more difficult it becomes to make forecasts,” said Monica Ionita, a climatologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute and senior author of the study. “It’s very difficult to keep up with what’s going on now.” 

In the climate and population growth scenario most aligned with our current trajectory, the team found, hot-dry extremes become “heightened” (over five times more probable on any given day than during 1961 to 1990) for 28% of the global population — nearly 2.6 billion people — by the 2090s. For comparison, they expect only about 6.6% to suffer that level of exposure in the 2030s. 

“When you get to almost 30% of the global population affected by this, it’s very critical. It should make us consider much, much more deeply our actions in the future,” Ionita said. She had anticipated a slightly slower pace of change, ending at a figure of maybe 10% or 15%. “By the end or middle of the century, maybe my children will not be able to experience the life that I have now.” 

Some reap what others sow 

Globally, compound hot-dry extremes may strike nearly 10 times per year on average by end-century, with the longest lasting around 15 days — increases of 2.4 and 2.7 times from the conditions of the past 25 years, respectively. Human emissions of greenhouse gases drive those changes: When the researchers analyzed simulations with only natural forces at play, no significant trends in the frequency or duration of hot-dry extremes emerged. 

However, those who emit the most likely won’t suffer the greatest impacts. According to the geographical distribution of risk in the simulations, low-income nations around the equator and tropics, including islands such as Mauritius and Vanuatu, will feel the most exacerbated hot-dry extremes despite contributing far fewer emissions than wealthier nations. For context, the team estimated the climate impact from the carbon 1.2 average U.S. citizens emit over their lifetimes could expose one additional person to heightened hot-dry extremes by the end of the century. 

“For lower-income countries, there is a huge unfairness here,” Cai said. “It’s hard to fund air conditioning. It’s hard to fund health care. There is no backup if water runs out. It’s not just a climate science issue; it is about basic, daily life.” 

Limiting emissions could avert a lot of risk, the researchers found. If all nations fully implement the climate action plans they contributed under the Paris Agreement, as well as more binding long-term pledges, about 18% of the global population would face heightened exposure to hot-dry extremes by the century’s end. That equates to roughly 1.7 billion people, nearly a third fewer than the number under the current trajectory. 

“The choices we make today will directly affect the daily lives of billions of people in the future,” Cai said. 

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Notes for journalists:    

This study is published in Geophysical Research Letters, an open access AGU journal. This study is under embargo until Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 13:00 UTC. Journalists may request an embargoed copy of the study by emailing news@agu.org. The study will be available to view and download at this link after the embargo lifts: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118822

Paper title:

“Compound Hot-Dry Extremes Amplify Disproportionate Climate Risks for Low-Income Nations”  

Authors:    

• Di Cai, Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany 

• Gerrit Lohmann, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany; University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany 

• Xianyao Chen, Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Key Laboratory of Transparent Arctic, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China

• Monica Ionita, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany; Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, Suceava, Romania 

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Journal

Geophysical Research Letters

DOI

10.1029/2025GL118822 

Article Title

Compound Hot-Dry Extremes Amplify Disproportionate Climate Risks for Low-Income Nations

Article Publication Date

7-Apr-2026

 

Green skepticism indirectly reduces intention to purchase sustainable products

Hiroshima University

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Conceptual illustration of how green skepticism reduces purchase intention by lowering information seeking and a sense of responsibility. (Eunji Seo / Hiroshima University) 

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Credit: Eunji Seo / Hiroshima University

Skepticism about claims regarding sustainability reduces consumers’ intentions to purchase sustainable products by weakening two important drivers of green consumption: people’s willingness to look for trustworthy environmental information and their anticipated guilt about making less sustainable choices.

As the world continues the transition to a sustainable economy and society, the behavior of consumers in purchasing sustainable or green products (green purchase intention) is an important aspect. In this transition, many companies engage in greenwashing: a practice of making inaccurate or misleading claims about their sustainability practices or environmental impact of their products, seeking to profit from green purchase intention without any investment in sustainability.

Many consumers are now aware of greenwashing and its widespread nature. This has led to consumers adopting green skepticism: they do not trust sustainability claims made by companies. Green skepticism has recently been subject to greater academic research.

A research team at Hiroshima University has developed a conceptual framework to examine how green skepticism shapes consumers’ green purchase intention by integrating cognitive and emotional mechanisms. They showed that green skepticism affects the intention to purchase sustainable products by weakening information seeking and anticipated guilt. This challenges the common assumption that skeptical consumers will just investigate more before deciding on purchases.

Their work was published in the journal Sustainability on February 3, 2026. 

Research on green skepticism is not yet comprehensive: empirical findings are inconsistent, the psychological mechanisms triggered by green skepticism are misunderstood, and past studies have not proposed an integrated framework to unify cognitive and emotional responses. In addition, the current assumption underlying green skepticism research is that it stimulates greater information processing and moral engagement. In other words, customers conduct in-depth research before purchasing a sustainable product or are troubled by guilt when faced with making an environmentally harmful choice. However, this assumption has not been rigorously tested. 

To address these issues, the researchers set out to examine the association between green skepticism and green purchase intention by integrating cognitive and emotional mechanisms within a parallel mediation framework. This framework allowed them to observe both internal and external psychological processes through which green skepticism shapes consumers’ green purchase intention. 

“We asked how consumer skepticism toward environmental claims actually reduces their willingness to buy green products,” says Eunji Seo, associate professor at Hiroshima University’s Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences. “Instead of assuming that skepticism directly lowers purchase intention, we focus on the underlying psychological processes. Specifically, we test whether green skepticism decreases consumers’ motivation to seek information about green products and weakens the anticipated guilt they might feel when choosing non-green options.” 

The researchers developed three following hypotheses after conducting a comprehensive review of existing scientific literature on green skepticism: 

• Green skepticism negatively influences green purchase intention. 
• Green product information seeking behavior mediates the relationship between green skepticism and green purchase intention. (positively or negatively) 
• Anticipated guilt mediates the relationship between green skepticism and green purchase intention. (positively or negatively) 

They tested these assumptions by creating and administering an online survey to Chinese consumers between 10 and 20 September 2025. 575 responses were received, and 511 were deemed valid for analysis. Of the valid responses, 43.1% were male and 56.9% were female; 15.1% were between 18 and 25 years old, 59.9% were between 26 and 35 years old, 20.2% were between 36 and 45 years old, 3.1% were between 46 and 55 years old, and 1.8% were aged 56 or above; and the majority of participants (88.8%) held or were pursuing an undergraduate degree.  

The survey responses were subjected to statistical analysis to test the validity of the three hypotheses. The researchers concluded that the direct relationship between green skepticism and green purchase intention is negative but not statistically significant, contradicting previous studies that have reported a significant negative association. Additionally, there is a significant negative relationship between green skepticism and green product information seeking, contrary to the dominant skepticism-as-verification view. Furthermore, green skepticism may encourage cognitive disengagement and information avoidance in the face of unresolved uncertainty. Green skepticism is also negatively associated with anticipated guilt, whereas anticipated guilt is positively associated with green purchase intention.

“The most important message is that green skepticism does not simply make consumers reject green products directly,” Seo explains. “Instead, it works more subtly by weakening two important drivers of green consumption: people’s willingness to look for trustworthy environmental information and their anticipated guilt about making less sustainable choices. In other words, skepticism can shut down engagement rather than encourage careful verification. This challenges the common assumption that skeptical consumers will just investigate more before deciding. Our findings suggest that, in low-trust environments, skepticism may lead not to deeper scrutiny, but to withdrawal from both cognitive and moral engagement.” 

 

The researchers highlighted the theoretical and practical contributions of the framework and their study. They documented an empirically observed disengagement-oriented response pattern associated with green skepticism, offering an alternative perspective to the dominant verification-oriented account in prior research. In practice, addressing green skepticism likely requires credibility-based interventions—such as transparent, verifiable environmental information and strengthened third-party certification—rather than conventional persuasive or moral appeals. 

“The real impact of green skepticism appeared indirectly: higher skepticism was associated with lower information seeking and weaker anticipated guilt, and both of these were positively linked to green purchase intention,” Seo elaborates. “A useful way to think about this is that skepticism does not always act like a ‘fact-checking engine.’ In many cases, it acts more like a 'psychological brake,’ reducing consumers’ willingness to engage with green information at all.” 

“The next step is to move beyond cross-sectional self-reported data and test these mechanisms using longitudinal, experimental, and behavioral approaches,” Seo concludes. “Future research should also examine whether the same disengagement-oriented patterns appear in other countries and in different institutional settings, because skepticism may operate differently across markets.” 

Shengyi Zhou at the Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Hiroshima University, co-authored the study. 

This study was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI (23K01647). 

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About Hiroshima University
Since its foundation in 1949, Hiroshima University has striven to become one of the most prominent and comprehensive universities in Japan for the promotion and development of scholarship and education. Consisting of 12 schools for undergraduate level and 5 graduate schools, ranging from natural sciences to humanities and social sciences, the university has grown into one of the most distinguished comprehensive research universities in Japan. English website: https://www.hiroshima-u.ac.jp/en

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Journal

Sustainability

DOI

10.3390/su18031539 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

How Green Skepticism Undermines Green Purchase Intention: The Roles of Information Seeking and Anticipated Guilt

 

Scientists reverse severe epilepsy in lab mice in promising step toward a cure

University of Virginia Health System

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“Recent advances in gene therapy offer significant promise for patients with genetic diseases," said University of Virginia School of Medicine researcher Manoj Patel, PhD. "Instead of addressing only the consequences, these approaches enable direct targeting of the underlying cause – the pathogenic genetic mutation itself – with real potential for a cure.”

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Credit: UVA Health

University of Virginia School of Medicine scientists have used a next-generation form of gene editing to fix the underlying cause of a severe form of epilepsy in lab mice. Their promising results suggest the approach could eventually be used to treat – or cure – severe genetic epilepsies in people as well.

Researchers led by UVA’s Manoj Patel, PhD, used highly precise “base editing” to correct the gene mutation responsible for a severe form of inherited epilepsy known as SCN8A developmental and epileptic encephalopathy (DEE). The condition causes seizures, learning disabilities and movement problems, and it can also trigger sudden death.

“Historically, treatments addressed only the downstream effects of genetic mutations; today, we can correct the mutations themselves, targeting the root cause of disease,” said Patel, part of UVA’s Department of Anesthesiology and the UVA Brain Institute. “Base editing opens the door to the treatment of numerous genetic diseases, not only those associated with epilepsy, and has the potential to significantly improve patients’ quality of life.”

Stopping Epilepsy at the Source

SCN8A-related epilepsy is estimated to affect 1 in 56,000 births – approximately 1% of all epilepsies – though many experts believe the condition is underdiagnosed. A mutation in the SCN8A gene allows too much sodium to flow into neurons in the brain, which causes the nerve cells to become hyperexcited. This leads to seizures which often resist treatment, as well as to physical and mental developmental problems.

Symptoms of SCN8A-related epilepsy typically first appear in early infanthood, but the severity of the condition can vary widely. Severe cases carry a significant risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP).

The potential severity of the condition, coupled with the frequent medication-resistance of the seizures, means there is a great need for new and better treatment options. That led Patel and his team to target the underlying cause. They turned to base editing, which allows scientists to alter single nucleotides, the building blocks of genes.

The highly precise nature of base editing allows scientists to avoid unwanted side effects that can come with gene editing. Patel and his team used the approach to correct the mutation in their lab mice and found that it either eliminated or dramatically reduced seizures and increased overall survival. It also improved the mice’s ability to move and reduced anxiety-like behaviors that are used as a proxy for assessing cognitive benefits.

When the scientists examined the mice’s brains, they found concrete changes that suggested their approach had the desired effects: Sodium flow into neurons was reduced, and so was the harmful neuronal hyperexcitability that causes seizures.

“This shows that the devastating impact of the mutation is not permanent – and can be reversed” said Caeley Reever, the lead researcher on the project. “We were able to effectively ‘cure’ mice carrying this specific gene mutation – a mutation that is known to cause epilepsy in some children,”

While much more research will need to be done before the approach could be used as a treatment in people, Patel is encouraged by his findings. The work paves the way not just to treat SCN8A-related epilepsy but other inherited epilepsies, he notes. It also speaks to the great potential of the base-editing technology to battle genetic diseases more generally.

“Our goal is to assess this gene therapy in children with this specific SCN8A variant,” Patel said. “Recent advances in gene therapy offer significant promise for patients with genetic diseases. Instead of addressing only the consequences, these approaches enable direct targeting of the underlying cause – the pathogenic genetic mutation itself – with real potential for a cure.”

Finding new ways to treat and cure the most complex diseases is a primary mission of UVA’s new Paul and Diane Manning Institute of Biotechnology. The institute works hand-in-hand with the UVA Brain Institute to advance our understanding of the brain and accelerate the development of new treatments and medicines for epilepsy, Alzheimer’s disease and other neurological disorders.

Findings Published

Patel and his team have published their findings in the Journal of Clinical Investigation. The article is open access, meaning it is free to read. The research team consisted of Reever, Alexis R. Boscia, Tyler C.J. Deutsch, Mansi P. Patel, Raquel M. Miralles, Shrinidhi Kittur, Erik J. Fleischel, Atum M.L. Buo, Matthew S. Yorek, Miriam H. Meisler, Charles R. Farber and Patel.

The research was supported by the National Institutes of Health, grants NS103090, NS122834, NS120702, NS34509, GM24872 and F31 NS134264; the UVA Brain Institute; and the Ivy Biomedical Innovation Fund.

To keep up with the latest medical research news from UVA and the Manning Institute, bookmark the Making of Medicine blog at https://makingofmedicine.virginia.edu.

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Journal

Journal of Clinical Investigation

DOI

10.1172/JCI196402