Seabirds reveal global mercury distribution in oceans

The analysis was based on blood samples from over 11,000 seabirds, the first biologically derived estimate of oceanic mercury distribution.

Nagoya University

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This study provides the drivers of variation in mercury concentrations in seabirds and, further, the first biologically based estimate of oceanic mercury distribution, analyzing blood mercury levels in more than 11,215 seabirds from 108 species, including 659 newly collected samples and over 10,556 from prior research. (THg: total mercury)

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Credit: Jumpei Okado (modified from Okado et al. 2026, licensed under CC BY 4.0)

Mercury released into the oceans affects marine environments worldwide. Traditionally, its distribution and quantity have been estimated using marine biogeochemical simulation models.

A recent international study led by Japanese researchers analyzed blood mercury concentrations in more than 11,215 seabirds from 108 species, of which 659 were newly collected samples and over 10,556 were from previous studies. This is the first biologically based estimate of oceanic mercury distribution.

The study found that mercury levels in seabirds vary according to prey trophic level, bird body weight, and foraging depth. The findings were published in Science of the Total Environment.

Mercury emissions into the ocean have risen since the Industrial Revolution, primarily due to increased atmospheric mercury from coal combustion. Mercury travels long distances by wind and enters the ocean through rainfall.

In the ocean, some mercury becomes highly toxic and bioaccumulates in the food chain, ultimately concentrating in the tissues of seabirds that consume fish and zooplankton.

Professor Akiko Shoji and Researcher Jumpei Okado of Nagoya University Graduate School of Environmental Studies, along with Senior Researcher Bungo Nishizawa of the Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, led an international study with 12 institutions from four countries.

Why were seabird blood samples used?

Blood samples from seabirds are efficiently collected when they come ashore for breeding. Mercury concentrations in adult birds' blood at breeding sites reflect their dietary mercury intake from specific ocean areas within the two months prior to sampling.

This method enables a more accurate correlation of mercury levels with specific times and locations than other sample types. Additionally, blood collection causes minimal harm to the birds.

Analysis of seabird blood data

Between 2017 and 2024, researchers collected blood samples from 659 individuals representing 10 seabird species at breeding sites in Japan, Alaska, and New Zealand. They dried and homogenized the samples, then measured total mercury concentrations using atomic absorption spectrometry. Results were standardized to total mercury per gram of dry weight in whole blood for comparison.

Researchers also conducted a systematic review of 106 publications from 1980 to 2025, with over 80% published after 2010, and analyzed data on more than 10,556 adults representing 105 seabird species.

In total, the team analyzed blood mercury concentrations in over 11,215 individuals from 108 seabird species worldwide, covering diverse diets and geographic regions.

The analysis found that seabirds at higher trophic levels, with larger body mass, and those feeding on prey from depths between 200 and 1,000 meters have higher mercury levels.

Statistical analysis showed distinct regional patterns in oceanic mercury contamination. Mercury levels were higher in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific below 40 degrees south, and in areas with low productivity, as indicated by reduced chlorophyll a levels. In contrast, mercury levels were much lower in the South Atlantic and Southern Oceans.

The study also found that albatrosses and shearwaters are more exposed to mercury than other seabird species.

Significance and future perspectives

The researchers found that predictions from the seabird-based model and the marine biogeochemical simulation models were only weakly correlated.

"The seabird model is based on empirical measurements from organisms and is therefore considered more reliable than values from marine simulation models," said Shoji. "Seabirds live in diverse environments, from coastal and tropical zones to polar regions. Their varied feeding patterns make them effective indicators of global ocean health."  

This approach offers a promising method to monitor and verify the effectiveness of international mercury emission regulations, such as the Minamata Convention, and to support stronger global efforts to reduce mercury contamination in marine ecosystems.

 

Funding information:

This study was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research awarded to AS: 23KK0116, 22K21355, and 19KK0159), Japan Science and Technology Agency (EXPLORATORY RESEARCH GRANT awarded to AS: JPMJFR241E), and Japan Polar Research Association (2022 and 2023 awarded to CN). Sample collection in Aotearoa New Zealand was supported by the Conservation Services Programme of the Department of Conservation (POP2022–08, POP20220–7, and POP2022–10), the National Geographic Society (WW-249C-17), the Mohamed Bin Zayed Species Conservation Fund (Project 192520234), and Birds New Zealand (Birds NZ Research fund 2017, 2019).

 

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Journal

Science of The Total Environment

DOI

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.181317 

Article Title

Global drivers of variation in blood mercury of seabirds revealed by a meta-analysis

 

Drowned chicks and food scarcity: Emperor penguin and Antarctic fur seal now endangered

Copyright Martin Wettstein

By Rebecca Ann Hughes

Published on 11/04/2026 -  EURONEWS

The primary drivers are shrinking sea ice and warming oceans driven by climate change.

The emperor penguin and Antarctic fur seal have been reclassified as ‘Endangered’ on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species.

Climate change in Antarctica is leading to changes in sea ice that are projected to halve the emperor penguin population by the 2080s, while reduced food availability has already driven a 50 per cent reduction in the Antarctic fur seal population since 2000.

“As countries prepare to gather at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in May, these assessments provide essential data to inform decisions regarding this majestic continent and its awe-inspiring wildlife,” says Dr Grethel Aguilar, IUCN Director General.

“Antarctica’s role as our planet’s 'frozen guardian' is irreplaceable – offering untold benefits to humans, stabilising the climate and providing refuge to unique wildlife.”

Climate change brings bigger risk of penguin chicks drowning

The emperor penguin has moved from Near Threatened to Endangered on the IUCN Red List, based on projections that its population will halve by the 2080s.

Satellite images indicate a loss of around 10 per cent of the population between 2009 and 2018 alone, equating to more than 20,000 adult penguins.

The primary driver is the early breakup and loss of sea ice, the IUCN says, which has reached record lows since 2016.

Emperor penguins require fast ice – sea ice that is “fastened” to the coastline, ocean floor or grounded icebergs – as habitat for their chicks and during their moulting season, when they are not waterproof.

If the ice breaks up too early, the result can be deadly.

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It is challenging to convert observed tragedies – such as the collapse of a breeding colony into the sea before the chicks can swim – into population changes.

But population modelling considering a wide range of future climate scenarios shows that without abrupt and dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, emperor penguin populations will rapidly decline during this century.

“Penguins are already among the most threatened birds on Earth,” says Martin Harper, CEO of BirdLife International, which coordinated the emperor penguin assessment as the authority for birds on the IUCN Red List.

“The emperor penguin’s move to Endangered is a stark warning: climate change is accelerating the extinction crisis before our eyes. Governments must act now to urgently decarbonise our economies.”

Rising ocean temperatures reduce food for Antarctic fur seals

The Antarctic fur seal has moved from Least Concern to Endangered on the IUCN Red List.

Its population has decreased by more than 50 per cent from an estimated 2,187,000 mature seals in 1999 to 944,000 in 2025.

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IUCN says the ongoing decline is due to climate change, as rising ocean temperatures and shrinking sea ice are pushing krill to greater ocean depths in search of colder water, reducing the availability of food for seals.

Krill shortages at South Georgia have reduced the survival of pups in their first year dramatically, leading to an ageing breeding population.

Other threats, such as predation by killer whales and leopard seals and competition with recovering baleen whale populations targeting the same krill, are potentially also impacting this declining population.

Avian flu threatens elephant seals

The southern elephant seal has also been reclassified, moving from Least Concern to Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List following declines caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).

There has been a significant increase in the prevalence of avian flu around the world since 2020, and it has spread to mammals. The disease has affected four of the five major subpopulations, killing more than 90 per cent of newborn pups in some colonies and seriously impacting adult females, which spend more time on the beaches than males.

There is growing concern that disease-related mortalities of marine mammals will increase with global warming – particularly in polar regions, where animals have not had much previous exposure to pathogens.

Animals that live close together in colonies, such as southern elephant seals, are particularly hard-hit by diseases.

Trump repeats falsehoods claiming he predicted 9/11 and demanded Bin Laden's death

Issued on: 07/04/2026 
05:34 min

During a press conference on Monday about the war in Iran, US President Donald Trump made a series of false claims about Washington’s progress in the conflict, his own past foreign policy, and that his book released in 2000 predicted 9/11.

After correctly mentioning three US fighter planes had been mistakenly shot down by Kuwait at the start of the war, Trump immediately claimed the “only planes” Washington had lost were as a result of “friendly fire”. Considering the very objective of this press conference was the rescue of two air personnel whose planes had been shot down by Iran, it was a direct contradiction to the focus of his briefing.

After discussing his first term actions in Iran, and the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, Trump repeated a long-debunked claim that he had not only predicted the September 11, 2001, terror attacks in the book he had released a year earlier, but that he pushed for the killing of Osama bin Laden.

His book shows no evidence that suppors either claim. In fact, bin Laden is only mentioned once in passing.

He also exaggerated or repeated falsehoods about his own foreign policy successes: including that he had "ended eight wars."

Vedika Bahl fact-checks Trump’s assertions in Truth or Fake.

BY: Vedika BAHL

VIDEO BY: Vedika BAHL

UK shelves Chagos Islands handover after Trump criticism


The United Kingdom announced on Saturday that it was suspending its plan to return the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius due to a lack of “support” from the United States. Britain evicted around 2,000 Chagos islanders after it bought the remote Indian Ocean archipelago in 1965, and it currently hosts a strategic US-UK military base.

11/04/2026 - 
By: FRANCE 24

This file image released by the US Navy shows an aerial view of Diego Garcia, the largest island of the Chagos Archipelago. © US Navy via AP

Britain has shelved plans to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius after strong opposition from US President Donald Trump who has previously described the move "an act of great stupidity".

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Downing Street office said the deal would proceed only "if it has US support", after reports the Chagos legislation risked running out of parliamentary time with no fresh bill planned.

The remote Indian Ocean archipelago – whose main island is Diego Garcia – was bought by Britain in 1965 before Mauritius gained independence. Following the purchase, the local population was expelled and Britain leased the territory to the United States for what became one of its most strategic military bases.

Britain's ownership was disputed for years, with the United Nations ruling in 2019 that the UK should hand back the roughly 55 islands and atolls.

Mass eviction

In 1965, Britain separated the Chagos Islands from the rest of Mauritius, then a semi-autonomous British territory, and paid three million pounds to acquire them, the equivalent of around $65 million today.

When Mauritius became independent three years later, the islands remained under British control and were renamed the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT).

Chagos islands dispute: HRW condemns UK, US actions on archipelago

01:47



In 1966, Britain leased the islands to the US for 50 years so that it could set up a military base. In 2016, the deal was extended to 2036.

Between 1968 and 1973, around 2,000 Chagos islanders were evicted, described in a British diplomatic cable at the time as the removal of a few "Tarzans and Man Fridays". Most were shipped to Mauritius and the Seychelles.

Mauritius argued it was illegal for Britain to break up its territory and demanded the right to resettle the former residents.
Strategic military base

The US military base on Diego Garcia, the largest island, took a major strategic role in the Cold War.

It offered proximity to Asia as an assertive Soviet navy was extending communist influence in the Indian Ocean.

Chagos Islands © Lise Kiennemann, Valentina Breschi, AFP


After the 1979 revolution that swept Iran, the US expanded the base to receive more warships and heavy bombers.

It later served as a staging ground for US bombing campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, and was used recently to launch B-2 bomber attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen during the Gaza war.
Islands returned

Britain signed a deal with Mauritius in May 2025 to return the islands, while paying to lease Diego Garcia for $136 million annually for 99 years, which London said would secure the use of the military base.

It follows decades of legal wrangling dating back to 1975 when Chagos islanders living in Mauritius launched legal proceedings against their expulsion, resulting in a 1982 payment of four million pounds in compensation along with land valued at one million pounds.

In 2007, a British appeals court paved the way for Chagossians to return home but its decision was annulled by the upper branch of parliament, the House of Lords, the following year.

In 2016, the British government confirmed its opposition to the resettlement of Chagossians, including for reasons of defence, security and cost.

Today, around 10,000 Chagossians and their descendants are divided between Mauritius, the Seychelles and Britain.
ICJ ruling

In 2010, Britain declared the islands part of a Marine Protected Area, arguing that people should not be permitted to live there.

Diplomatic cables revealed by WikiLeaks quoted a British official as saying the plan "put paid to the resettlement claims of the archipelago's former residents".

The move backfired as a UN arbitration tribunal declared it illegal in 2015. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) stated in 2019 that Britain had illegally split the islands and should relinquish control.

Britain rejected the ruling, insisting that Mauritius was wrong to bring the case to court, and arguing the Diego Garcia base played a "vital role" in keeping the region safe.

Later that year, a UN General Assembly resolution demanded Britain cede the islands.
Colonial history

Located several hundred kilometres south of the Maldives, the Chagos Islands were colonised by France in the 18th century and African slaves were shipped in to cultivate coconuts and copra.

In 1814, France was made to cede the islands to Britain, which in 1903 merged them with Mauritius, its colony around 2,000 kilometres to the southwest.

After the abolition of slavery in 1834, Indian workers arrived and mixed with the first settlers.

Only three of the islands were inhabited: Diego Garcia, Salomon and Peros Banhos.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

An Orban loss in Hungary’s election could be the turning point Putin fears

ANALYSIS

Hungary's legislative elections on Sunday are being closely watched in Moscow. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has long been Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest ally within the European Union, and a victory for the opposition Tisza party led by Peter Magyar could undermine the Kremlin's influence in the bloc.


Issued on: 11/04/2026 -
FRANCE24
By: Sébastian SEIBT

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban with Russian president Vladimir Putin in the background. © Alexander Nemenov, AFP

After 16 years in power doing Russia's bidding in Brussels, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party is at risk of losing power in Sunday's parliamentary elections, with challenger Peter Magyar significantly ahead in polls.

The Kremlin appears to have pulled out all the stops to boost its man in Budapest. An internal intelligence report for Russia’s SVR intelligence service revealed in March outlined a strategy dubbed “the Gamechanger”, which included staging an assassination attempt against Orban to “fundamentally alter the entire paradigm of the election campaign”.

The Hungarian campaign has seen a major escalation in interference, including “documented influence operations, disinformation campaigns and reports of intelligence-linked activities”, says Edit Zgut-Przybylska, a research affiliate at the Democracy Institute of the Central European University in Budapest and a specialist on democratic backsliding.

Moscow has also been accused of dispatching a team of election "specialists" – linked to the GRU, Russian military intelligence – to Budapest to closely monitor these interference operations.

At this point, "what we are seeing is not interference but the collusion between the Hungarian government and Russia", says Anton Shekhovtsov, director of the Center for Democratic Integrity in Austria and an expert on the links between Moscow and Europe's far-right parties.

Shekhovtsov noted that US Vice President JD Vance’s joint appearance with Orban in Budapest earlier this week was another attempt by “foreign interests” to influence the vote. Rightwing US President Donald Trump has even promised to boost Hungary’s economy if Orban wins re-election.

Putin's translator and Moscow’s 'Trojan Horse'

The appointment of Daria Boyarskaya, a former interpreter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, to the observer team overseeing the vote for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has come under fire from Hungarian rights groups as well as European lawmakers. An open letter signed by 56 members of the European Parliament last week called for Boyarskaya to be removed from the role, citing her ties to Moscow.

“Russia has a clear interest in keeping Orban in power, because Hungary has consistently acted as a Trojan Horse of the Kremlin who worked against EU decisions on Ukraine and sanctions against Russia,” says Zgut-Przybylska.

Putin would lose his "most loyal and reliable" partner within the European Union, she says – a position only underscored by the leak last week of a conversation in which Orban said he was ready to help Putin in any way he can.

"I am at your service," he told the Russian president.

Russia has also tried to help Orban leverage the war in neighbouring Ukraine to “reframe the election as an existential choice between ‘Peace and stability’ under Fidesz and ‘Chaos and war' under Tisza”, Zgut-Przybylska says.

But Moscow's attempts to sow fear do not appear to have convinced an electorate of disgruntled voters who want the government to do more to help them in their daily lives, including in areas like public education and health care. Opposition challenger Magyar, a former member of Orban's Fidesz who advocates a more pro-European policy, is leading by some 10 points in the polls.

Incremental change

Even a win for Tisza would not guarantee that it is able to successfully govern Hungary, observes Shekhovtsov, noting that after 16 years in power, Orban’s party and his allies have made deep inroads into Hungarian political institutions. The current prime minister has done everything he can to ensure his allies, political institutions and friendly media outlets outlive him.

But a Magyar win could mean that Hungary “would begin distancing itself from Russia, though Russian influence would not disappear overnight”, Zgut-Przybylska says. Moscow's influence could even ramp up, as the Kremlin might actively “work to weaken” a new Hungarian government that was looking to normalise relations with the EU.

“Of course there will be huge attempts by the Russians to undermine Magyar,” Shekhovtsov agrees, adding that Moscow can also expect continued support from Orban from within Hungary.

And Russia still has allies in Europe beyond Hungary – notably in rightwing Prime Minister Robert Fico's Slovakia – that could continue to undermine pro-Ukraine and pro-European Union policies.

Slovakia would, however, be a weaker replacement as a Russian partner since it is more integrated into the European system and thus has less room for manoeuvre. “Slovakia is part of the eurozone, [so] Fico has more constraints within the EU decision-making system and is less isolated than Hungary,” Zgut-Przybylska says.

'Vladimir Putin absolutely nervous' about Hungary's election, expert says

© France 24
08:21



Russia might still be able to rely on Hungarian help even if Magyar wins. While he has promised a more Russo-sceptical approach, he is unlikely to make a complete break with Moscow.

“It's not good for Russia, but it's not a complete catastrophe for them either,” says Michael Toomey, a specialist in populism in Central Europe at the University of Glasgow, of a possible Magyar win.

Slovakia and Hungary have insisted on retaining access to cheap Russian oil and gas, arguing against or even blocking sanctions on Moscow.

Magyar reportedly also wants to ensure access to Russian energy resources.

“There are a lot of structural reasons for Hungary to want to continue to push for access to Russian oil and gas,” Toomey notes. So while Magyar is more likely than Orban to be supportive of Ukraine – and will be “less of a thorn in the side for the EU” – that does not necessarily mean he will always fall into line.

While the EU has called for all member states to end their reliance on Russian energy by 2027, Magyar has already made clear that Hungary would not be able to do this before 2035.

No one expects Budapest to cut ties with Moscow, says Shekhovtsov. What is expected, he says, is for Hungary “to be a responsible member of the European Union and follow the line of the European Union on Russia”.

And any real break from Russia can only happen if Tisza secures a comfortable majority in Sunday's vote, which would allow it to avoid making significant ideological compromises just to form a government.

If Magyar wins but doesn't secure such a majority, Shekhovtsov says, “he will have a huge uphill battle to fight”.

This article has been translated from the original in French.

 

Americans back NATO; Republicans split along Trump-party lines

Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania

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Source: IOD National Survey, Feb.-March 2026. N = 1,330, MOE = +/- 3.5 Annenberg Public Policy Center 2026

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Credit: Annenberg Public Policy Center

A nationally representative survey conducted by the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania finds that a majority of Americans value U.S. membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and consider it a meaningful security asset, but views are sharply divided along partisan lines.

In addition, Republican attitudes diverge by whether respondents identify mainly as supporters of President Donald Trump or of the Republican Party more generally, a pattern that points to a broader fracturing of party consensus on U.S. foreign policy commitments.

The Annenberg survey, released following Trump’s April 8th meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the White House, comes amid an ongoing debate among Republican leaders over U.S. participation in NATO. In early April, Senators Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) broke with Trump after he said he was considering U.S. withdrawal from the alliance, warning that an exit would undermine U.S. security. Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.), however, has been supportive of Trump’s declared desire to leave NATO and of his constitutional authority to withdraw without requiring Senate approval.

Findings

The survey, by the Annenberg Public Policy Center’s Institutions of Democracy division, was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 1,330 U.S. citizens age 18 and older from Feb. 17-March 20, 2026. (Download the topline here.) The survey finds that:

• A majority of U.S. adults (61%) say that the United States remaining a member of NATO is at least moderately important;
• Just over half of Americans (52%) say U.S. security benefits a moderate amount or more from NATO membership;
• Nearly 4 in 10 Americans (38%) have a somewhat or very favorable opinion of NATO – more than twice as many as those who hold an unfavorable opinion (18%);
• There is a deep divide among Republicans: fewer than 1 in 4 (22%) who identify primarily as Trump supporters say NATO provides at least a moderate amount of benefit to U.S. security, while nearly half (47%) who identify primarily with the Republican party do.

“Although President Trump has repeatedly condemned NATO and said he’s considering withdrawing the U.S. from it, a majority of Americans say that the United States should remain a NATO member and that U.S. security benefits from NATO membership,” said Matthew Levendusky, director of APPC’s Institutions of Democracy division and a professor of political science and communication at the University of Pennsylvania.

NATO membership and U.S. security benefits

The survey finds broad but not universal U.S. support for NATO. Overall, 61% of Americans say remaining in NATO is at least moderately important, compared with 21% who say it is only a little or not at all important and 18% who are not sure. Just over half of Americans (52%) say U.S. security benefits at least a moderate amount from NATO membership – including 19% who say it benefits a great deal and 14% who say it benefits a lot – compared with 26% who say U.S. security benefits a little or not at all, and 22% who say they are not sure.

Party differences: The survey respondents were asked in a prior wave of this survey whether they identify with or lean toward the Republican party or the Democratic party, or are independent/some other party.

Democrats are the most supportive of NATO: 79% say it is moderately or more important the U.S. remain a NATO member and 68% say NATO provides at least a moderate security benefit.

Republicans are notably less likely to hold those views: 44% say NATO membership is at least moderately important, while 34% report moderate or greater security benefits – a Republican-Democrat gap of 35 and 34 points, respectively, on NATO membership and U.S. security.

Respondents who are self-described independents or members of other parties fall between the two partisan poles, with 58% seeing NATO membership as important and 55% seeing security benefits to the United States.

NATO favorability

Beyond security-benefit and membership-importance questions, the survey also measures overall favorability toward NATO. About 4 in 10 Americans (38%) hold a somewhat or very favorable view of NATO, more than twice as many as those (18%) with a somewhat or very unfavorable view of it. But 28% say their view of NATO is neither favorable nor unfavorable and 17% report that they don’t know enough to say. Partisan differences are significant: 55% of Democrats express favorable views, compared with 21% of Republicans and 35% of independents.

Foreign policy

The survey also asks whether U.S. foreign military interventions more often improve or worsen situations in the countries where they occur. Overall, 42% say such interventions worsen the situations, while 20% say such interventions improve them. About 4 in 10 Republicans (39%) say they think that U.S. foreign military interventions improve conditions where they occur, while 6% of Democrats do, a 33-point gap. Only 10% of independents say U.S. interventions improve situations.

The Republican divide: Trump loyalists vs. party identifiers

One striking finding concerns divisions solely within the ranks of Republicans. A prior wave of this survey had asked Republicans whether they consider themselves more of a supporter of Donald Trump, more of a supporter of the Republican Party, both equally, or neither.

On NATO membership, 28% of Trump supporters vs. 59% of Republican party supporters say continued membership is at least moderately important. On the benefits to U.S. security, the difference is similarly pronounced: 22% of Republicans who identify primarily as Trump supporters say NATO provides at least a moderate amount of benefit to U.S. security – compared with 47% among those who identify primarily with the GOP, a 25-point difference.

Republicans who say they are supporters of both Trump and the party fall between the two groups, with 38% seeing the benefits of U.S. membership in NATO and 31% seeing the benefits of NATO to U.S. security.

“What we’re seeing is not simply a partisan divide on foreign policy — the data may also suggest a fracturing within the Republican coalition itself. Although these subgroup patterns are based on smaller sample sizes, the different views on NATO between Trump supporters and party supporters are significant,” said Shawn Patterson Jr., a research analyst at APPC. “This has real implications for American foreign policy.”

APPC’s Institutions of Democracy survey

The Annenberg Public Policy Center’s Institutions of Democracy survey was fielded with a nationally representative sample of 1,330 U.S. citizens ages 18 and older from Feb. 17-March 20, 2026. The survey was conducted for APPC by SSRS, an independent research company, primarily online, with a small sample of phone respondents. Respondents were weighted to align with population benchmarks. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3.5 percentage points, and it is larger for subgroups.

Download the topline and the survey methodology. See the topline for question wording.

APPC’s Institutions of Democracy division studies democratic institutions, public opinion, political behavior, and information environments. IOD conducts original survey research and related empirical work to provide rigorous, nonpartisan evidence on contemporary political and public-affairs questions.

The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania was established in 1993 to educate the public and policy makers about communication’s role in advancing public understanding of political, science, and health issues at the local, state, and federal levels.

 

Source: IOD National Survey, Feb.-March 2026. N = 1,330, MOE = +/- 3.5 Annenberg Public Policy Center 2026

 

Source: IOD National Survey, Feb.-March 2026. N = 1,330, MOE = +/- 3.5 Annenberg Public Policy Center 2026

 

IOD National Survey, Feb.-March 2026. N = 1,330, MOE = +/- 3.5 Annenberg Public Policy Center 2026

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Method of Research

Survey

Subject of Research

People

Poll: Catholic Support For President Donald Trump Drops Below 50% Amid Iran War

April 11, 2026 
EWTN News
By Tyler Arnold

President Donald Trump was elected in 2024 with support from a majority of Catholic voters, but a poll shows his support from Catholics dipping below 50% amid the U.S. war against Iran.

The poll, conducted March 20–23 jointly by Republican pollster Shaw & Co. Research and Democratic pollster Beacon Research, found that 48% of Catholic voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president and 52% disapprove.

It found that 23% of Catholics strongly approve of the job he is doing, 25% somewhat approve, 12% somewhat disapprove, and 40% strongly disapprove. The pollʼs margin of error is plus or minus 3%.

Pope Leo XIV and Catholic bishops in the United States and globally have encouraged Trump to pursue peace and diplomacy, as opposed to war, in Iran. With peace negotiations underway, the Holy Father echoed his call for more diplomacy in an April 10 post on X.

“God does not bless any conflict,” Leo said. “Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs. Military action will not create space for freedom or times of peace, which comes only from the patient promotion of coexistence and dialogue among peoples.”

In the 2024 election, Trump won the Catholic vote by a 12-point margin, securing 55% of the voting bloc’s support, compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 43%. In 2020, Trump won 49% of the Catholic vote, compared with former President Joe Biden’s 50%.

This poll comes as Trump’s support is dwindling with the broader American public as well. The poll found that only 41% of all voters approve of the president, and 59% disapprove.
Iran war disapproval

The poll found that most Catholics disapprove of Trump’s actions in Iran and the use of military force against the country but still favor some American influence in the region.

According to the poll, only 40% of Catholics approve of the way Trump has handled the conflict with Iran, and 60% disapprove. It found that 45% of Catholics support military force against Iran and 55% oppose military force. Similarly, 45% of Catholics believe military action against Iran is going well, and 55% believe it is not going well.

The poll found that 39% of Catholics believe attacks on Iran will make the country safer, 38% believe it will make the country less safe, and 23% believe it will not make much of a difference.

Alternatively, 71% of Catholics believe ending Iran’s nuclear program is important, and 29% said it is not important. It found 61% said it is important to bring about changes in Iran’s government, and 39% said it is not important.

The poll also found that 71% of Catholics believe it is important to protect the flow of oil from the region, and 29% believe it is not important. It found that 73% of Catholics believe it is important to reduce Iran’s support for terrorism, and 27% believe it is not important.

According to the poll, 74% of Catholics are concerned about Iran potentially getting a nuclear weapon, and 26% are not concerned.
2024 coalition ‘in tatters’

John White, professor emeritus of politics at The Catholic University of America, told EWTN News that he believes Trump’s 2024 coalition “is now in tatters [and] Catholics are no exception.”

“The Iran War is unpopular with the American public and Catholics reflect that,” he said. “What may carry more resonance with Catholic voters are the strong and blunt statements about the war from Pope Leo. It is not unreasonable to assume that there is a higher level of cognitive dissonance among Catholics who support Trump but are hearing the words of the pope. For some, that may result in their shifting opinions.”

Susan Hanssen, history professor at the University of Dallas — a Catholic institution — had a similar view about why Catholic support has dipped, telling EWTN News “a reversal of positions seems to be underway within the Catholic community.

“During Trump‘s campaign, Trump‘s supporters expressed hopes for a fundamental realignment of America’s foreign policy, particularly withdrawing from ‘forever wars,’ while many of Trump’s Catholic critics expressed concern during his campaign that he would disengage America from its support for Ukraine or [for] Israel,” she said. “Support for Trump’s strong stance on Iran seems to be coming now … from Catholics who were wary of Trump earlier.”

Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic, has departed the U.S. for his trip to Pakistan, where he plans to directly negotiate with Iranian leaders for a long-term peace while both sides hold off on military strikes during a two-week ceasefire.


EWTN News is the rebranding of the Catholic News Agency (CNA), following the decision by EWTN — which was launched as a Catholic television network in 1981 by Mother Angelica, PCPA — that brings CNA and its affiliated ACI international outlets under a single, unified identity. Previous CNA articles may be found by clicking here.