Tuesday, May 05, 2026

 

AI falls short in predicting weather extremes

A team from UNIGE and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology has shown that traditional weather forecasting models remain more reliable than AI in predicting extreme weather events




Université de Genève





Record-breaking heatwaves, torrential rainfall and supercell thunderstorms: extreme events are intensifying under the influence of climate change, with major human and economic consequences. Artificial intelligence models are revolutionizing weather forecasting. But can they anticipate such exceptional events? A team from the University of Geneva (UNIGE) and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) shows that, to date, traditional numerical models remain more reliable for predicting extreme phenomena, even though AI models outperform them under typical conditions. These findings are published in Science Advances.


To forecast the weather in the coming days or weeks, meteorologists rely on simulations generated by complex mathematical models. Powered by vast amounts of data—collected from weather stations, satellites, and aircraft—these models apply the laws of physics to simulate the future state of the atmosphere. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, for instance, uses a model known as the High Resolution Forecast, or ‘‘HRES’’, to provide simulations to 35 countries across the continent.


While this method is reliable and robust, it is also costly and energy-intensive, as it requires extensive supercomputing infrastructure capable of solving millions of equations several times a day. ‘‘The introduction, three years ago, of the first models based on artificial intelligence, alongside the traditional numerical approach, has opened the way to simplifying processes and reducing their costs,’’ explains Sebastian Engelke, full professor at the Research Institute for Statistics and Information Science at the UNIGE Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM).


But is this AI-based approach capable of predicting the occurrence of often unprecedented extreme events up to ten days in advance? In a recent study, Sebastian Engelke'steam shows that AI outperforms traditional models—specifically HRES—when forecasting typical conditions, but consistently makes larger errors than HRES when predicting the intensity and frequency of extreme temperatures and winds.


‘‘The main problem with AI models is their difficulty in generalizing beyond the data on which they were trained, which span the period from 1979 to 2017. As a result, they tend to be limited to extreme values already observed in the past, as if they had an implicit ceiling. By contrast, convential models, based on the laws of atmospheric physics, are not constrained by this limitation and can theoretically represent unprecedented situations,” explains Zhongwei Zhang, former postdoctoral researcher in Sebastian Engelke’s team, now affiliated with the Institute of Statistics at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, and first author of the study.


These results highlight the current limitations of AI-based weather models when it comes to extrapolating beyond their training domain and predicting record-breaking weather events. They underscore the need for continued evaluation and improvement before such models can be used autonomously in early warning systems and disaster management.

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AI fails to make inroads with cybercriminals, study finds



University of Edinburgh





Cybercriminals have been struggling to adopt AI in their work, reports the first of its kind study that analysed a dataset of 100 million posts from underground cybercrime communities.

In reality, most cybercriminals – often referred to as hackers – lack the skills or resources to support real innovation within their criminal activities, experts say.

It was found that AI was used most successfully when hiding patterns that are often detectable by cybersecurity defenders, and for running social media bots that conduct misogynistic harassment and make money from fraud. 

The team of researchers from Universities of Edinburgh, Cambridge and Strathclyde analysed   discussions from the CrimeBB database that contains over 100 million posts scraped from underground and dark web cybercrime forums.

These conversations were analysed using a combination of machine learning tools and manual sampling techniques, searching for posts that discussed how cybercrime actors were experimenting with AI technologies from November 2022 onwards, which marks the release of ChatGPT.

Through their analysis, researchers found that AI coding assistants are mostly proving useful for already skilled actors rather than reducing the skill barrier to committing cybercrime, as the AI tools still require significant skills and knowledge to use effectively.

They also found some evidence of the use of AI tools in more advanced forms of automation, especially in social engineering and bot farming. 

Because most cybercrime is already heavily industrialised, deskilled, and reliant on automated tools and pre-made assets, this represents an evolution rather than a revolution in criminal practices, experts say.

In reassuring findings, guardrails on the major chatbots are having significant effects in reducing harm. But researchers say there is still cause for concern after observing early evidence that these communities are having some success in manipulating the outputs of the mainstream chatbots.

Interestingly, many of the people in these cybercrime communities were also seen to be panicking about potentially losing their ‘day jobs’ in IT as a result of AI disruption in mainstream software industries, which could then drive them and others towards more cybercriminal activity.  

Contrary to reports from the cybersecurity industry to date, the authors warn that the most pressing risks are likely to be from the adoption of poorly secured agentic AI systems – a form of AI that can act autonomously, making decisions and carrying out actions on specific tasks.

There are also risks around insecure ‘vibecoded’ products – where computer code has been written using AI – by legitimate industry, rather than the adoption of AI tools by cybercriminals.

The findings have been peer reviewed and will be presented at the Workshop on the Economics of Information Security in Berkley, USA, in June 2026. 

Dr Ben Collier, Senior Lecturer in Digital Methods at University of Edinburgh’s School of Social and Political Science, said: “Cybercriminals are experimenting with these tools, but as far as we can tell it’s not delivering them real benefits in their own work. Our message to industry is: don't panic yet. The immediate danger comes from companies and members of the public adopting poorly secured AI systems themselves, opening them up to catastrophic new attacks that can be performed by cybercriminals with little effort or skill.”

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No digital content is safe from generative AI, researchers say

Cybersecurity researchers discovered that simple artificial intelligence tools can defeat security techniques meant to protect authentic content from use in deepfakes, facial identity theft, or artistic style mimicry




Virginia Tech

Peng Gao and Bimal Viswanath. 

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(From left) Peng Gao and Bimal Viswanath.

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Credit: Photos by Tonia Moxley for Virginia Tech.





A research team led by Virginia Tech cybersecurity expert Bimal Viswanath has found a critical blind spot in today's image protection techniques designed to prevent bad actors from stealing online content for unauthorized artificial intelligence training, style mimicry, and deepfake manipulations.

The research team found that attackers can defeat existing security using off-the-shelf artificial intelligence (AI) models and simple commands. Furthermore, “there is currently no foolproof, mathematically guaranteed way for users to protect publicly posted images against an adversary using off-the-shelf GenAI models,” Viswanath said.

The work was presented at the fourth IEEE Conference on Secure and Trustworthy Machine Learning, in Munich, Germany. The authors include Viswanath, doctoral students Xavier Pleimling and Sifat Muhammad Abdullah, Assistant Professor Peng Gao, Murtuza Jadliwala of the University of Texas at San Antonio, and Gunjan Balde and Mainack Mondal of Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur.

As AI tools become more powerful and accessible, this work highlights the growing need for stronger cybersecurity, trustworthy AI, privacy, and digital forensics protections.

GenAI makes fraud easier

Previously, fraudsters needed to use specialized, purpose-built methods to circumvent image security techniques that made it difficult for bad actors to use authentic content for deepfakes, facial identity theft, or artistic style mimicry.

"But using today’s off-the-shelf, image-to-image generative AI models and a simple text prompt, our researchers easily and effectively removed a wide range of these protections,” Viswanath said.

They demonstrated this security weakness across eight case studies spanning six diverse protection schemes. The vulnerabilities impact a wide spectrum of defenses, including perturbations meant to protect specific semantic properties, like a person's facial identity, invisible "protective noise" applied through an AI's latent space, and even robust protections specifically designed to survive downstream fine-tuning tasks.

“Our general-purpose attack not only circumvents these defenses but actually outperforms existing specialized attacks, while preserving the image's utility for the adversary," Viswanath said.

Racing to solve a growing problem

This work has exposed a critical and widespread vulnerability in the current landscape of image protection, proving that simply adding imperceptible protective noise to an image is no longer enough to stop data scrapers and forgers.

“It is especially concerning because current security methods can give a false sense of security,” Viswanath said. “We urgently need to develop robust defenses and establish that any future protection mechanism can defend against attacks from off-the-shelf generative AI models.”

This means the cybersecurity community must wholly re-evaluate its approach to secure visual content.

“Any future protection mechanism must be strictly benchmarked against simple, text-guided attacks from widely available, off-the-shelf GenAI models, not just evaluating them against specialized, purpose-built attacks,” Viswanath said. “Researchers should also note that GenAI image-to-image models will continue to improve over time, potentially making defense efforts harder.”

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A toy model to understand how AI learns




A simple physics-inspired model sheds light on how neural networks learn, offering new clues to the surprising efficiency and stability of modern AI systems




Sissa Medialab





Artificial intelligence systems based on neural networks — such as ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek or Gemini — are extraordinarily powerful, yet their internal workings remain largely a “black box”. To better understand how these systems produce their responses, a group of physicists at Harvard University has developed a simplified mathematical model of learning in neural networks that can be analysed mathematically using the tools of statistical physics.

“Toy models”, like the one presented in the study just published in the Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (JSTAT), provide researchers with a controlled theoretical laboratory for investigating the fundamental mechanisms of neural networks. A deeper understanding of how these systems work could help design artificial intelligence systems that are more efficient and reliable, while also addressing some of the current challenges.

The laws of AI

It’s a bit like when Kepler described the laws governing the motion of the planets. “The way Newton’s laws of gravity were discovered was first by identifying scaling laws between the orbital periods of planets and their radii,” explains Alexander Atanasov, a PhD student in theoretical physics at Harvard University and first author of the new study. Kepler formulated his laws by observing planetary motion, without fully understanding the mechanisms behind it. Yet that work proved crucial: it later enabled Newton to uncover gravity, leading to a much deeper understanding of the universe.

In studies of deep learning—the branch of artificial intelligence based on neural networks—we may still be in a similar Keplerian phase. Today researchers have identified several empirical laws that describe how neural networks behave, but we still lack a kind of “theory of gravity” explaining why they behave that way.

Scientists, for example, know about the scaling laws. “We know that if we take a model and make it bigger, or give it more data, its performance increases,” explains Cengiz Pehlevan, Associate Professor of Applied Mathematics at Harvard University and senior author of the study. These laws make performance predictable, but they do not yet reveal the deeper mechanisms behind it.  This approach is not only inefficient—today’s AI systems consume enormous amounts of energy—but also does little to advance our understanding of how these systems actually work.

Neural networks as biological organisms

“Deep learning models are not algorithms written by hand as a set of rules. They’re not engineered manually,” explains Atanasov. “It’s much more similar to an organism being grown in a lab.”

Generative AI chatbots rely on neural networks, a technology that — in a very distant way — resembles the functioning of a biological brain. They consist of many small processing units, called artificial neurons, each performing simple operations but connected together in a complex network.

It is this networked structure that allows “intelligent” behaviour to emerge. Although we know the mathematical operations performed by each individual component, predicting and mechanistically explaining the behaviour of the system as a whole remains extremely difficult: as the number of components grows, the complexity increases rapidly. 

A toy model

Since it is currently impossible to analyse a full-scale neural network with exact mathematical methods, Atanasov and his colleagues chose to work with a simplified model that still captures many key features of more complex systems.

“The model we’re studying is simple enough to be solved mathematically,” explains Jacob Zavatone-Veth, Junior Fellow at the Harvard Society of Fellows and co-author of the study. “At the same time, it reproduces several of the key phenomena seen in large neural networks.”

The toy model used in the study is ridge regression, a variant of linear regression. 

Linear regression is a statistical method used to estimate relationships between variables. For example, if we know the height and weight of 100 people, we can use linear regression to identify a mathematical relationship between the two and estimate the height of a new person based only on their weight.

The mystery of overfitting — and why it often doesn’t happen

Ridge regression is a type of regression that helps reduce the phenomenon known as overfitting. When models are trained on large datasets, a neural network — a bit like a very diligent but perhaps not particularly insightful student — may end up simply memorising the training data instead of learning patterns that allow it to generalise and make reliable predictions on new data.

Yet deep learning models often behave in a surprising way. “Despite being extremely large, these models can learn from the data without overfitting,” explains Atanasov, calling it “one of the great mysteries of deep learning.”

At first glance this seems counterintuitive. In theory, larger models should be more prone to overfitting. Instead, the scaling laws show that performance often improves as more data are used during training. 

New insights

The new study offers one possible piece of that explanation. According to the researchers, the ability of neural networks to learn without overfitting may arise from principles related to renormalization theory, a framework widely used in statistical physics.

To see why, it helps to consider the dimensionality of the data processed by modern AI systems. In the earlier example of linear regression we considered only two variables — height and weight. Real systems such as ChatGPT, however, operate in spaces with thousands or even millions of variables, making an exact mathematical analysis extremely difficult.

Here ideas from statistical physics become useful. In very high-dimensional data, small random variations — known as statistical fluctuations — naturally appear. Renormalization theory shows that many microscopic details can be effectively absorbed into a small number of parameters, meaning that even very complex systems can display relatively simple large-scale behaviour.

Using this framework and their simplified toy model, the researchers show how these high-dimensional fluctuations can actually stabilise learning rather than destabilise it.

“This is something we can understand by analysing simpler linear models,” explains Pehlevan, suggesting that the same mechanism may explain why current neural networks avoid overfitting even when they are highly over-parameterised.

The simplified model may also serve another purpose. As Zavatone-Veth notes, it could be a kind of baseline for understanding how learning might behave in very high-dimensional systems. By studying a model that is simple enough to analyse mathematically, researchers can identify which aspects of learning are likely to be generic—that is, expected to appear across many different neural networks—and which instead depend on the details of a specific model. In this sense, studies like this may help clarify some of the more fundamental principles underlying learning in complex systems.