Monday, March 23, 2026

Where Is The U.S. Anti-War Movement? A Response to Eric Blanc

Source: Originally published by Z. Feel free to share widely.

I recently came across a thoughtful article by Eric Blanc: Why Is There No Anti-War Movement in the US? As a combat veteran who joined Iraq Veterans Against the War (IVAW) in 2006 after two deployments to Iraq with the United States Marine Corps, I have participated in antiwar activism for the past two decades. Blanc’s hypotheses provide a valuable starting point for exploring the lack of anti-war activism in 2026 and echo many of my reflections and conversations with fellow anti-war activists and veterans over 20 years. 

In this essay, I will briefly reflect on the six main points of Eric’s piece, then add a few more toward the end. In my view, such conversations and debates are absolutely necessary, but should always take place in the spirit of solidarity. Right now, we need solidarity more than ever. Online bickering, personal squabbles, and other immature behaviors are antithetical to building mass movements, effective organizations, and long-lasting institutions. If creating a serious, committed, disciplined, and effective antiwar movement is the goal, people must reject radical posturing, sloganeering, and unserious criticism. 

1) Americans Feel Powerless

Anyone who has organized people in challenging socioeconomic environments understands this on a profound level. The primary challenge we faced in organizing people in the deindustrialized landscape of the American Rust Belt wasn’t convincing them that elites were destroying our lives. People living in Northwest Indiana and on the South Side of Chicago understood that quite well. Our primary obstacle was persuading poor and working-class people that they have the power to effect radical and necessary political changes in this country. The collective sense of powerlessness is overwhelming. 

Additionally, the left often underestimates ordinary people. My non-politically engaged friends, coworkers, neighbors, and family have watched Americans mobilize for various causes over 20 years, but rarely do they witness any significant victories. In fact, quite the opposite: every aspect of our lives has rapidly deteriorated over the past several decades, from the Global War on Terror, which unleashed 25 years of nonstop illegal military actions, destroyed civil liberties, consolidated power in the executive branch, and drained $8 trillion from our nation’s coffers, to the Great Recession, COVID, January 6th, Ukraine, Gaza, ICE, Iran, AI, and beyond. It’s not irrational for people to feel disheartened and disempowered. 

In my view, a significant portion of people’s collective sense of powerlessness stems from their misguided approach to political engagement. Organizing and mobilizing are two fundamentally different methods, a point Blanc addresses later in his essay, but also one that explains why so many Americans feel powerless. If Americans are led to believe that simply showing up to a few rallies will stop a war or prevent Trump from enacting draconian policies, they will inevitably come to the conclusion that what they’re doing isn’t working, so why bother? Nonstop mobilizing without a deeper, broader, and more long-term approach to organizing burns people. 

2) People Are Hoping the War Ends Quickly 

Blanc is correct to assert that “even if Trump does call victory [in Iran] in the next few days or weeks, this is unlikely to put a stop to his imperial ambitions.” True, no doubt. As Blanc notes, simply ending the war in Iran isn’t good enough. Trump and Co. have their sights aimed at Cuba, Gaza, China, and beyond. Not to mention, Uncle Sam’s ongoing support for the disastrous war in Ukraineexpanding the geographical territory of the United States, assassinating civilians in the Caribbean, threatening military action in Mexico, and so on. Here, any new incarnation of the anti-war movement must challenge the US Empire as a project, not simply the individual military actions of each administration. 

3) Trump is Doing So Many Horrible Things 

Without question, Americans are overwhelmed by the volume and intensity of Trump’s wide-ranging belligerence. At the same time, they are also increasingly critical and unhappy with Trump’s policies. I consistently hear this from my family, friends, neighbors, and coworkers. Part of the problem, with regard to people feeling overwhelmed, is that people spend far too much time online. The algorithms reward sensational headlines. Sensational headlines elicit attention, hence clicks. And that’s precisely what the tech oligarchs want: distracted and dumbfounded consumers posting, liking, sharing, and disparing. 

Outrage that was once expressed at a rally or organizing meeting is now displayed in the digital realm. Social media has not helped Americans build political power. In fact, quite the opposite: social media has created a cultural sphere where people are duped into believing their pithy posts and cutting memes matter. They don’t. In my view, they are an impotent form of political protest and contribute nothing substantive to our collective culture. During the height of the Iraq War, Americans gathered in physical spaces and engaged in one-on-one conversations and collective debates to discuss how they could contribute to ending the war. Today, people spend an inordinate amount of time online, and it’s a major problem. 

4) People Confuse Mobilizing with Organizing

This point can’t be stated enough. Americans have confused mobilizing with organizing for far too long, and in virtually every arena of political activism: the anti-war movement, the racial justice movement, the environmental movement, the feminist movement, the labor movement, and so on. Without question, this is the primary reason we do not have anti-war institutions and organizations in the US in 2026. To think, I had been an anti-war activist for over twelve years before I even knew the difference between the two approaches. This is unacceptable. 

Speaking from personal experience, the anti-war activists from the 1968 generation didn’t provide us with much organizational knowledge or guidance during the anti-war protests that took place under Bush and Obama. It would be untrue to suggest that the anti-war activists and organizations remaining from the Vietnam era were well-versed in the sort of organizing approaches championed by people such as Jane McAlevey. And for the most part, we took their guidance. They were, after all, in charge of most of the anti-war protests, actions, and organizations that existed following 9/11. 

To be clear, I’m not taking a shot at the 1968 generation: I learned much from their experiences, stories, and knowledge. To this day, some of my best friends are veteran activists from that era. We are indebted to their efforts, patience, and wisdom. But we must also learn from their mistakes in order to become more effective. The social, political, technological, cultural, ecological, and economic context is radically different from that of the 1960s and 1970s. Yes, let’s learn as much as we can from previous generations, but let’s also adapt and improve upon existing methods. 

5) No Draft

While it’s virtually impossible to quantify how much of a role the draft played in the upsurge of antiwar activism during Vietnam, it’s also wise of Blanc to acknowledge that the draft did, in fact, play a role. Over the years, I’ve listened to many debates between Vietnam veterans, such as Barry Romo and Kim Scipes, who disagreed on the topic. Barry always downplayed the role of the draft, whereas Kim insisted that it played a consequential role. That said, there’s no doubt that Americans would become very interested in US foreign policy if they knew there was a chance that they or their children, cousins, or friends could be sent to fight and die for another bullshit war. I couldn’t imagine how anyone could argue otherwise.

6) Sectarianism Has Helped Marginalize Anti-War Activity

I grew up in a union family. Everyone served in the military, and everyone voted for the Democratic Party. No one in my family identified as a socialist, communist, or anarchist. My father raised me with good class politics, but I didn’t know the difference between Leninists and Trotskyists until I became involved with the anti-war movement. I’d never even heard the term ‘sectarianism’ prior to attending college anti-war protests and conferences. 

I remember attending the Winter Soldier Hearings in 2008, where I testified about war crimes and atrocities that I had witnessed during my deployments to Iraq. Immediately, there was a huge blowout argument because the International Socialist Organization (ISO) attempted to stack IVAW’s board of directors with some of its members who were also veterans. At the time, I had no frame of reference. I just remember thinking to myself, “This is all very confusing, strange, and unwelcoming.” If I felt that way, surely any ordinary person would feel the same. 

On another occasion, I was invited to speak on a series of panel discussions at the University of Iowa, where a campus anti-war organization was holding its annual conference. After the conference was finished, the college students held a small protest through the streets of Iowa City. During the march, someone handed me an American flag to hold. Afterward, many of us went to a local pub to grab some food and drinks. A couple of hours passed, and a college student walked up to me and started aggressively questioning my anti-war credentials and whether or not I was ‘truly anti-imperialist’ if I was willing to hold an American flag. 

Again, weird and off-putting. The sort of stuff that turns people off. Fortunately, I was so angry about the war and so committed to doing something about it that none of those experiences deterred me from participating in future anti-war events. But that’s not true of everyone, especially people who have families, multiple jobs, children, elderly parents, and various other responsibilities that limit the amount of time they can spend doing anti-war organizing work. Those are just a couple of anecdotes. I could cite several dozen similar instances of bizarre sectarian behavior. 

Leaving that aside, for now, Blanc also brings up a great point about the anti-war left’s urge to justify the regressive politics of those on the receiving end of US militarism. One of the biggest differences between the Vietnam era and the post-9/11 era is that the Vietnamese resistance espoused an ideology that left activists could get behind. Anti-colonial and nationalist movements around the world provided not only sympathetic victims of US imperialism, but also movements and leaders American leftists could identify with and support. 

None of that is true in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Iran, and so on. Yes, leftwing movements do exist in those countries, but they are extremely isolated and powerless. More importantly, those forces did not form the primary resistance against the US military. The most effective forces fighting against the US Empire, especially in the Middle East, were and remain very regressive entities. This poses a challenge for left-wing activists in North America, Europe, and Australia. 

For example, we don’t have to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but we should seek to understand why Russia invaded Ukraine and the role the US has played in forcing Russia’s hand. Likewise, anti-war activists in the US shouldn’t feel compelled to defend or glorify the Iranian regime in order to make the case that US intervention is a bad idea. At the same time, I don’t think anti-war activists in the US should go out of their way to denounce foreign regimes, especially at a time when the US government is chock-full of authoritarians and wannabe fascists. Here, some nuance and humility is required. 

Moving along, I wouldn’t worry too much about the people who spend their free time denouncing Bernie and AOC for not being radical enough. Most of the people engaged in that sort of rhetoric are keyboard warriors, YouTube influencers, and hardcore ideologues who represent no one. That said, anti-war activists are correct to push politicians like Bernie and AOC to take on the US Empire more directly, to make the issue central to their worldview and political programs. In the absence of a powerful anti-war movement, activists in the US shouldn’t expect politicians to prioritize fundamentally altering the trajectory of US militarism. 

Finally, while it’s true that college activists have been the vanguard of anti-war activism, it’s also true that military veterans have played a key role in anti-war efforts during the wars in VietnamAfghanistan, and Iraq. We need both groups, no doubt. However, I believe that anti-war veterans are better positioned to lead the anti-war movement, and for several reasons. First, because veterans are still one of the most respected segments in US society and culture. Second, because veterans are disciplined, committed, and serious about ending the wars. For us, war is not abstract. It’s life or death. We’ve experienced the horrors of war firsthand. We’ve smelled it. We’ve tasted it. We live with the consequences of Uncle Sam’s imperial ambitions.  

Additional Reasons for the Lack of an Anti-War Movement in the US 

  • The previous antiwar movement during the lead-up to the Iraq War and stretching into the Obama era didn’t leave behind any worthwhile institutions, organizations, or infrastructure that could be inherited by the current generation of activists. Much of that has to do with prioritizing mobilizing over organizing. But it’s also because building institutions that lasted beyond our efforts wasn’t a key focus. And it wasn’t a key focus because antiwar activists during the Bush and Obama administrations weren’t viewing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria as part of the larger project of the US Empire. 
  • Because the antiwar movement, including IVAW, never developed a framework for the US Empire, each individual military action was scrutinized and debated accordingly. Iraq was easy to oppose. By 2010, it became apparent to many of us that IVAW should also oppose the war in Afghanistan. Of course, in hindsight, it should’ve been opposed from the very beginning, but that’s a conversation for another day. Then, Libya under Obama. And Syria. And the drone program. And Pakistan, Somalia, Lebanon, and Palestine. Each time, a new debate emerged. Each time, rabid sectarianism and a lack of understanding of the US Empire prevented IVAW and various other antiwar organizations from properly addressing the latest war effort. People jumped from one war to the next. 
  • The lack of an electoral strategy also hampered anti-war efforts during the Bush and Obama administrations. At the height of anti-war resistance to the Iraq War, activists either reluctantly voted for Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections or avoided the elections altogether. The Democratic Party took both the US House and Senate in 2006, but with no viable strategy to end the war. Their victory, in hindsight, was symbolic, at best. Since anti-war activists didn’t engage with most of those electoral campaigns, there were no specific policy demands — such as cutting off funding for the war — once the Democrats took power. Moreover, by avoiding elections, the anti-war movement missed the opportunity to connect with ordinary Americans. After all, elections are when tens of millions of non-politicized Americans engage in the political process. Moreover, the anti-war movement (and the broader left) never conceptualized a US state apparatus demilitarized. In the end, someone will run the empire. Someone will make parliamentary decisions. Someone will direct the state and its resources. The anti-war movement never thought about, let alone discussed or debated, what it would do if, in fact, it was powerful enough to take over the state. How should the US interact with other nations? What should the US do with its hundreds of military bases and outposts scattered across the globe? How should the US relate to authoritarian regimes abroad? 
  • Conspiracy theories also played a role in hindering anti-war efforts. In my experience, the anti-war movement allowed far too many kooks and fringe organizations into our cultural and social spheres. 9/11 truthers. The ‘New World Order’ Alex Jones crowd. Quaker pacifists. And a whole range of groups that have very small constituencies, but oversized voices. This dynamic became more pronounced in the wake of the WikiLeaks revelations. For whatever reason, Julian Assange attracted a multitude of socially inept activists who simply turned people off. The same is true of groups such as Code Pink. The internal culture of such groups doesn’t lend itself to mass participation. 
  • Identity politics also proved toxic in anti-war circles. I remember attending an anti-war strategy retreat in Baltimore during Obama’s first term, where the organizers of the event asked the conference attendees to introduce ourselves by stating our preferred pronouns. This turned people off, as did the organizers’ request that attendees identify their sexuality and race/ethnicity. Again, this isn’t the way to attract alienated and disempowered Americans, many of whom are completely unaware of the semantics and nuances of gender politics, racial justice, queer theory, etc. How anyone at the time thought such an approach was acceptable or productive will forever bewilder me. 
  • Subsequent social movements — organized labor, Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, Bernie Sanders’ 2016 and 2020 campaigns, environmental organizations, and so forth — did not prioritize opposing US militarism, nor did they make the clear connection between the US Empire and their respective efforts. Each of these movements and organizations missed a great opportunity to connect the US Empire to austerity politics and authoritarian, racist, ecocidal, patriarchal rule at home. The more money we spend abroad, the less money we have for social needs. Civil liberties are always curtailed during wars. Police departments receive training and weapons from the military. And so on. The connections are apparent. 
  • The NGO complex, in short. Nonprofit organizations dominated the anti-war scene under Bush and Obama. Leaving aside the myriad of reasons why that’s a problem, and the numerous and obvious limitations of advocacy as compared with mobilizing or organizing, it’s safe to say that independent political organizations, unions, or party apparatuses provide more opportunities than NGOs. 

Each of the points raised above requires further examination and debate, but Eric’s essay provides a good start. If we hope to create a robust and powerful anti-war movement, we shouldn’t avoid difficult conversations with our allies and friends. Right now, we need a successful left-wing more than ever. The most regressive forces in US society and culture are driving the country and the world to the brink of disaster. The US Empire, like many declining empires throughout history, lashes out as the republic crumbles from within. Trump’s imperial ambitions, while notably unhinged and destructive, won’t be the last military campaigns launched by a US President. 

For every article analyzing what Trump and Co. are thinking or doing, there should be ten or twenty articles examining what we could be doing to prevent or stop them. Without doubt, there’s far too much analysis and not nearly enough action. Articles, podcasts, conversations, songs, and films dedicated to activating, mobilizing, and organizing people should take precedence over the never-ending critiques and denunciations I read on a daily basis. It would be wise for Americans to learn from the failures and successes of previous political movements. We have a lot of work to do. Email

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Vincent Emanuele is a writer, antiwar veteran, and podcaster, known for his activism and social justice work. He is a co-founder of PARC | Politics Art Roots Culture Media, an organization focused on promoting alternative media, arts, and community engagement. Additionally, he is associated with the PARC Community-Cultural Center located in Michigan City, Indiana, which aims to foster a sense of community and cultural exchange.

Pete Hegseth’s War on Journalists (and Iran Too)


Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth appears to be in the midst of two conflicts, one…in Iran, and the other with the American free press over its coverage of the widening Middle East war.
MS NOW‘s Sydney Carruth (3/13/26)

Last fall, nearly the entire Pentagon press corps was banned from the Pentagon after refusing to sign Pete Hegseth’s loyalty oath, which would have bound them to only report information “authorized” by the government (FAIR.org9/23/25). They were quickly replaced by pundits from Hegseth-approved outlets like One America NewsGateway Pundit and Lindell TV, which is “Pillow Guy” Mike Lindell’s pet project.

But once the Iran War got underway, it dawned on Hegseth that a Defense secretary needs to communicate with the whole country, not just the narrow slice of it reached by his favorite right-wing pundits. So Hegseth reversed course, asking the major networks to bring their cameras back to the Pentagon. They agreed, but on one condition: Some of their reporters had to be allowed to return to the press briefing room, too.

So back they came, albeit now at the back of the room. Few of these reporters—who represent outlets you’ve actually heard of, like ABCNBC and the New York Times—are called on. Hegseth, a former Fox News weekend host, instead fields questions almost exclusively from handpicked media personalities seated in the front rows. (I’d call them reporters, but if they signed Hegseth’s 2025 oath, as most did, they’re anything but.)

‘Typical gotcha-type question’

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (CNN, 3/4/26) suggests the deaths of US servicemembers should not be “front-page news”: “When a few drones get through or tragic things happen, it’s front-page news. I get it. The press only wants to make the president look bad.”

When Hegseth stepped to the podium for his first Iran War press briefing on March 2, there was a lot on the line. A skeptical American public wanted to know why President Trump had just launched another regime-change war, the very thing he’d railed against on the campaign trail. But Hegseth had little to offer, aside from “lots of chest-thumping,” a Pentagon reporter told CNN.

For the Q&A, Hegseth “only answered questions from his chosen outlets,” reported CNN’s Brian Stelter (3/4/26), until a journalist in the back lobbed a question about Trump’s changing timeline for the war’s duration. Hegseth initially ignored the interruption, but his anger got the best of him, and he returned to the matter.

“I heard the question about ‘four weeks,’” Hegseth sneered. “It’s the typical NBC sort of gotcha-type question.”

Having veered away from his friendly questioners, Hegseth was off script and had to think on his feet, not exactly a strength.

“President Trump has all the latitude in the world to talk about how long it may or may not take—four weeks, two weeks, six weeks. It could move up, it could move back,” Hegseth said at the opening of a rant that somehow included the word “aperture” and the observation that, “well, I mean, Joe Biden didn’t even know what he was doing.”

‘Only favorable images’

Scott Nover (Washington Post, 3/11/26): “Members of Hegseth’s staff told colleagues that they did not like the way that the secretary looked” in press photographs.

After face-planting at his first Iran War press briefing, Hegseth knew change was needed—only not by him, but with his enemies in the press.

If Hegseth couldn’t kick out any more reporters, who could he get rid of? Scanning the room, he fixed on the photographers.

The Pentagon’s stated reason for banning press photographers after the March 2 briefing was because of space restrictions. But the real reason, the Washington Post (3/11/26) reported, was they took “unflattering” photos of Hegseth.

Now only Pentagon photographers are allowed into briefings, and they are happy to provide the media with approved photos of their boss. Alex Garcia, president of the National Press Photographers Association, told the Post:

Excluding photographers from Pentagon briefings because officials did not like how published images portrayed them shows an astonishingly poor sense of priorities in the midst of a war and is, for a public servant, not a good look…. A free press cannot function if government officials decide that only favorable images of public officials may be created or distributed.

In Hegseth’s March 4 press briefing—without those pesky photographers—he stuck again to his preferred outlets, like the Daily CallerDaily WireLindell TV and the Washington Times. He also took one question from a mainstream journalist, Tom Bateman of the BBC, who pressed Hegseth on the US bombing of an elementary school in Minab. “We’re investigating it,” Hegseth replied curtly.

‘A snowflake behind a military shield’

Jon Passantino (Status, 3/14/26): Hegseth “has used his authority as Defense secretary to wage a relentless campaign against press independence.”

Among the many reporters who didn’t get called on was the Atlantic’s Nancy Youssef, although in her case it was because she wasn’t allowed in. “I, along with print photographers, have been denied entry to cover today’s Pentagon briefing,” Youssef wrote on X. “All other media were allowed in.”

By Hegseth’s next briefing, March 19, his banned list had expanded again. “The Pentagon’s own publication, Stars and Stripes, was disinvited from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s latest Iran War press conference—as he continues to clamp down on press coverage,” the Independent (3/19/26) reported.

This came less than two weeks after the Pentagon announced it was taking greater control of Stars and Stripes, a paper Hegseth previously claimed had gone “woke” (Daily Beast3/19/26). As former Stars and Stripes reporter Kevin Baron (X3/19/26) pointed out, the paper’s

employees are US Army civilians. Their editorial independence is protected by Congress specifically to prevent political leaders from feeding troops propaganda.

“Hegseth spent years on a comfortable Fox News couch building a brand around contempt for the thin-skinned and the easily offended,” wrote Status’s Jon Passantino (3/14/26). “But in office, Hegseth has revealed himself to be exactly that—a snowflake behind a military shield.”

‘An actual patriotic press’

CNN (3/13/26) angered Hegseth by reporting that “Trump’s preference of leaning on a tight circle of close advisers…had the effect of sidelining interagency debate over the potential economic fallout.”

As the US and Israel’s war on Iran continues to worsen, Hegseth’s attacks on the media have also escalated. At his March 13 briefing, Hegseth insisted that “an actual patriotic press” wouldn’t write headlines stating the war is expanding, even as the war has sprawled from an initial three countries—Israel, the US and Iran—to over a dozen.

“Allow me to make a few suggestions,” Hegseth offered. “People look up at the TV and they see banners, they see headlines [like]… ‘Mideast War Intensifies,’” he said. “What should the banner read instead? How about, ‘Iran Increasingly Desperate.’”

Hegseth also singled out a CNN story (3/13/26), headlined “Trump Administration Underestimated Iran War’s Impact on Strait of Hormuz.” That story is “patently ridiculous, of course,” Hegseth said, blithely dismissing the strait’s closure, saying we “don’t need to worry about it.”

Hegseth’s worries were directed elsewhere—at CNN. “The sooner David Ellison takes over that network, the better,” Hegseth said.

Ellison is the 43-year-old nepo baby of billionaire Larry Ellison, a close Trump ally. Having already purchased Paramount, and with it CBS, Ellison is on the verge of closing a $110 billion deal for Warner Bros. Discovery, which owns, among other media and film properties, CNN.

Hegseth’s comments about Ellison taking over CNN “should be a major scandal,” wrote Craig Aaron (Pressing Issues3/17/26), co-CEO of Free Press (the media advocacy group, not the right-wing, Ellison-owned outlet of the same name). “But in the chaos of the Trump administration, he’s just a warm-up act.”

‘Sick and demented people’

Hegseth (C-SPAN2, 3/19/26): “A dishonest and anti-Trump press will stop at nothing, we know this at this point, to downplay progress, amplify every cost and call into question every step. Sadly, TDS is in their DNA.”

Indeed, as Trump’s historically unpopular war continues to sour, he’s sought to place blame on a familiar target: news media. Outlets critically covering the war, Trump posted on Truth Social (3/14/26), “are truly sick and demented people that have no idea the damage they cause the United States of America.” The next day (3/15/26), he declared they “should be brought up on Charges for TREASON for the dissemination of false information!” Treason is punishable by death.

Trump’s censorious FCC chair, Brendan Carr, backed up his boss: “The law is clear,” he tweeted (3/14/26). “Broadcasters must operate in the public interest, and they will lose their licenses if they do not.”

Hegseth succinctly outlined what “operating in the public interest” looks like at his March 19 briefing. The press need only say “one thing to President Trump,” he said. “Thank you.”

Failing To Destroy Hezbollah, Israel Seeks To Spark A Lebanese Civil War

Source: Mint Press News

Surprised by the intensity of Hezbollah’s retaliatory attacks against it, Israel appears to be pivoting to sow internal chaos within Lebanon’s borders in a bid to trigger a catastrophic civil war.

An attempted coup against the Lebanese military’s leadership may be the catalyst.

At the beginning of March, the extent of the rocket and drone fire from Hezbollah at Israeli military targets struck Tel Aviv by surprise.

However, the corporate media quickly constructed a narrative aimed at undermining the capabilities of the Lebanese resistance group and blaming it for the renewed hostilities, with the BBC running a headline entitled “Battered and isolated, Hezbollah drags Lebanon into another war.”

Despite this, the Israeli media quickly began to pull apart the concept that Hezbollah had been defeated, as the intensity of the group’s attacks appeared more intense than they were in past confrontations.

They’re selling illusions to the public,” an Israeli senior former security told Yediot Aharanot, regarding the Israeli government’s narrative of Hezbollah’s defeat.

One of Israel’s leading think-tanks, The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC), has also admitted that “since the ceasefire at the end of November 2024, Hezbollah has taken steps to enable it to recover from the blows of the previous war.”

“Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel Katz, and Eyal Zamir promised that the Hezbollah threat would be completely removed, that it would be disarmed. As you may recall, Israel failed to disarm Hamas, which is weaker, for two years,” wrote Haaretz’s Ravid Drucker, criticising the government’s failure to sufficiently weaken Hezbollah.

Instead, he argued that the best off-ramp is to take the Lebanese government’s offer to normalise ties as the smart strategic option.

Major Shift in Lebanese Politics

Following the Lebanon-Israeli ceasefire of Nov. 27, 2024, a major shift occurred in Lebanese politics.

Joseph Aoun was selected to be its president, while Nawaf Salam [a former judge at the International Court of Justice] took over as the nation’s prime minister; both the favoured picks of the United States.

Over the course of the following 15 months, Israel would go on to commit 15,400 violations of the ceasefire agreement, killing hundreds of Lebanese and even expanding their military occupation of the nation’s territory.

During this time, PM Salam focused his efforts on pursuing a U.S. plan to disarm Hezbollah, which was even passed by the Lebanese Cabinet in August of 2025.

In response, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassim rejected the notion of handing over their weapons, arguing that doing so would rob Lebanon of its ability to resist Israeli expansionism and its threats to achieve “Greater Israel.”

Instead, the Hezbollah leader called upon the government to carry out its duty to expel the foreign occupiers. Upon announcement of its entry into war earlier this month, Hezbollah expressed that it had given the government 15 months to address the daily Israeli attacks on their lands, but that their patience had worn thin.

Provoking further criticism from the Lebanese public, Salam told CNN that “peace will lead to normalisation” with Israel and that he hoped it would come “tomorrow, not the day after.”

Despite his attempts to address the backlash, by claiming his words were taken out of context, a Lebanese leader expressing his desire to see normalisation at a time of conflict was what drew scrutiny, not his abandonment of the need for a “Two-State solution” in Palestine.

During the ceasefire period, Trump administration officials consistently gloated over their power wielded regionally, triggering waves of backlash. During an interview, released in September of last year, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack had smirked at the idea of the Lebanese Army being permitted to defend its territory from Israel and instead said Washington was arming them to “fight their own people.”

The Catalyst

When Hezbollah fired on Israel earlier this month, Lebanon’s prime minister immediately went on the offensive against the group’s political party and label the attacks on Israeli targets as “illegal.” Under the prime minister’s authority and as Lebanon’s capital was under fire, the government approved a ban on all Hezbollah military activity.

Standing in the government’s way of ordering a violent crackdown, has been the current commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, who has resisted pressure to crack down on the forces resisting Israeli aggression. According to reports, Commander Rodolphe Haykal does not seek to crack down on Hezbollah’s weapons until the war is concluded.

The Lebanese Army even announced that they had participated in the foiling of an Israeli attempt to infiltrate the Bekaa Valley through a helicopter landing, leading to the summoning of the military’s leader.

Pressure then began to mount from the U.S., France and Saudi Arabia to sack Commander Haykal. This has been resisted from within the leadership of the army, who have warned that the consequences could destabilise the country.

Prime Minister Salam and President Aoun have also reached out to initiate unprecedented direct talks with Israel, while France has proposed a plan that will involve Beirut’s recognition of Israel.

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, who exercises influence over the U.S. president, has also since argued for the removal of the Lebanese Army’s top commander.

If such a coup against the leadership of the Lebanese Army does occur, then this could lead to another civil war inside the country and a possible fragmenting of Lebanon’s Armed Forces.

Since the initiation of the latest war between Israel and Lebanon, over 800,000 civilians have already been displaced, as Israel has recently launched a ground invasion of the country.

Hezbollah’s ground forces are said to consist of 100,000 fighters, while the Lebanese Army is only around 80,000 strong. However, Lebanon’s Armed Forces aren’t allowed to possess strategic weapons and function as more of a domestic police force, due to U.S imposed restrictions. 

It is unlikely that the Lebanese Army would remain intact if they were ordered to attack Hezbollah, as a large component of its fighters are believed to sympathise with the group that is resisting Israeli aggression.

Although there is no census allowed, it is speculated that the Lebanese Army itself could be composed of between 25 percent-or-50 percent Shia Muslims, the same sect as Hezbollah.

Another factor at play are the loyalties of tribal forces, especially in the Bekaa Valley area, who have historically fought alongside both Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army in protecting the nation’s borders.

Despite all of the factors at play, Tel Aviv is eager to use the current pro-U.S. Lebanese government to fight Hezbollah on their behalf, seemingly without considering the possible outcomes.