By Paul Wallis
EDITOR AT LARGE
DIGITAL JOURNAL
March 17, 2026
Thailand's Navy said a Thai ship was attacked in the Hormuz Strait - Copyright ROYAL THAI NAVY/AFP Handout
Forget the rhetoric about allies helping the US in Iran. In military terms, the polite description is “overcommitment”. Things can’t stay as they are. The next move must exist and must be made. In chess, it’s called “zugzwang”, a move you have to make. In policy terms, it’s called a glaringly obvious booby trap. The US has allowed itself to get sucked into a problem it can’t solve. It can’t exit without losing face badly.
There’s no easy exit from such an open-ended, self-inflicted situation. The US was under no compulsion to do anything. The result has been abysmal. All it takes is an occasional missile to keep Hormuz locked and shipowners refusing to take risks. The US has written a blank check to fund a thankless task, spending billions like flakes of dandruff. The best that can happen is a return to normality, as if it had never happened.
Trump’s floundering, unrealistic demands for help went beyond absurd. His constant attacks on NATO were always going to backfire; it was just a matter of how and when.
The lack of diplomatic skills and military insight also apparently extends to Australia. Committing major fleet units is out of the question. The Australian Navy is effectively rebuilding itself from the ground up with new acquisitions to revitalize a fleet long in need of generational upgrades.
The Australian fleet is also trying to maintain its own local regional responsibilities in four oceans. It’s not a hard point to make, and it shouldn’t need making. Could it be that other countries may also have military commitments?
This seemingly bottomless lack of basic comprehension on the part of the US isn’t going down at all well. The world simply can’t fight wars on the basis of whims. Or for the sake of appearances. Or for no clear objective. The allies have quite rightly rejected any involvement.
Israel has a long ongoing direct conflict with Iran, regardless of whether the Straits of Hormuz are open or not. The rest of the world doesn’t have that problem.
The economics of this war are unforgiving. Global commerce and trade don’t need more cost pressures. This war is already costing the world big money. Oil prices famously impact inflation. Other oil producers are making big money out of the spike in oil prices.
This is usually the way with oil. Any excuse, let alone a war, will spike oil prices. If a pipe somewhere in Nigeria blows up, the price of oil goes up $10 a barrel. Start a war, and it goes much further up and stays up. These are the normal market reactions.
There’s no exit unless Iran decides to negotiate a deal in its own favour. That means a US backdown in some form, which seems unlikely.
For somebody who claims to know what cards other players have, this war is a truly lousy call. Iran has been given a very high card. They’ve added another good card with “selective Hormuz passage.” The US has devalued its own hand and can’t even make a pair with Australia. The strategic long game always beats the compulsive Adderall of US politics. America didn’t understand the long games of Vietnam or Afghanistan, either.
This war can be lost badly and ignominiously. It’s hard to envision Saigon 1975 in Pennsylvania Avenue 2026, but with the right people in charge, it’s possible.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
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