Saturday, June 20, 2020
What Supreme Court? Trump's HHS pushes LGBT health rollback
RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR,Associated Press•June 19, 2020
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration Friday moved forward with a rule that rolls back health care protections for transgender people, even as the Supreme Court barred sex discrimination against LGBT individuals on the job.
The rule from the Department of Health and Human Services was published in the Federal Register, the official record of the executive branch, with an effective date of Aug. 18. That will set off a barrage of lawsuits from gay rights and women's groups. It also signals to religious and social conservatives in President Donald Trump's political base that the administration remains committed to their causes as the president pursues his reelection.
The Trump administration rule would overturn Obama-era sex discrimination protections for transgender people in health care.
Strikingly similar to the underlying issues in the job discrimination case before the Supreme Court, the Trump health care rule rests on the idea that sex is determined by biology. The Obama version relied on a broader understanding shaped by a person's inner sense of being male, female, neither, or a combination.
Writing for the majority in this week's 6-3 decision, Justice Neil Gorsuch said, "An employer who fires an individual for being homosexual or transgender fires that person for traits or actions it would not have questioned in members of a different sex.
“Sex plays a necessary and undisguisable role in the decision, exactly what (civil rights law) forbids," wrote Gorsuch, who was nominated to the court by Trump.
The president thundered back in a tweet: “These horrible & politically charged decisions coming out of the Supreme Court are shotgun blasts into the face of people that are proud to call themselves Republicans or Conservatives.”
In the HHS rule, the department's Office for Civil Rights anticipated a Supreme Court ruling on job discrimination “will likely have ramifications” for its health discrimination rule.
But health care is different, HHS argued. “The binary biological character of sex (which is ultimately grounded in genetics) takes on special importance in the health context,” administration lawyers wrote. “Those implications might not be fully addressed by future (job discrimination) rulings even if courts were to deem the categories of sexual orientation or gender identity to be encompassed by the prohibition on sex discrimination in (civil rights law).”
Cornell University constitutional law scholar Michael Dorf says that doesn't sound like a persuasive argument to him.
“I don't think it works very well,” said Dorf. “In Justice Gorsuch's opinion he's not saying the word ‘sex’ is ambiguous. He's saying that when you do all the reasoning, it's clear that ‘sex’ includes sexual orientation and gender identity.”
Civil rights laws on employment and health care may be different in a technical sense, said Dorf, but “it seems to be a very short distance to say (the Supreme Court ruling) also applies” to sex discrimination in health care.
Not so fast, said Gregory Baylor, an attorney for the religious liberty group Alliance Defending Freedom. “Biological sex matters in many health care settings in a way that it doesn't matter in many employment decisions,” Baylor said. He cited the shortcomings of drug trials that use male patients but not women, when there can be differences in how medications affect both genders.
But gay rights and women's groups say their arguments against the health care rule have clearly been strengthened by the Supreme Court.
“The decision puts the (HHS) rule on even shakier ground than it ever was,” said Omar Gonzalez-Pagan, a lawyer specializing in health care with the LGBTQ civil rights group Lamba Legal.
Michelle Banker, an attorney for the National Women's Law Center, said the administration's timing raises process questions that could later become important in a court challenge. It was only last week HHS announced it had finalized the rule.
“Agencies are required to make reasoned, rational decisions when they make policy,” said Banker. “The Supreme Court just weighed in and said that the legal interpretation they are relying on is wrong, and they have not grappled with that.”
The Obama-era rule was intended to carry out anti-discrimination provisions in former President Barack Obama's signature health care law, which included a provision that barred sex discrimination in health care. The Trump administration says its predecessor went beyond what Congress authorized in protecting gender identity as well as biological gender.
Another provision of the Obama rule bars discrimination in health care against women on grounds of having or not having abortions. The Trump rule overturns that as well. Baylor said there's nothing in the Supreme Court decision that would affect the Trump administration's decision.
HHS rejects charges by Trump administration critics that it's opening the way for discrimination.
“HHS respects the dignity of every human being," said Roger Severino, head of the department's civil rights office. “We vigorously protect and enforce the civil rights of all to the fullest extent permitted by our laws as passed by Congress.”
Chick-fil-A CEO urged white people to take action against racism and said he does not blame looters after multiple locations were damaged last week
Business Insider•June 19, 2020
Chick-fil-A CEO Dan Cathy.
Cyrus McCrimmon/The Denver Post/Getty Images
Chick-fil-A CEO Dan Cathy urged white people to repent and take action against racism during a roundtable discussion Sunday at Passion City Church in Atlanta, Georgia.
Cathy said a dozen Chick-fil-A restaurants had been vandalized in the last week.
"My plea would be for the white people, rather than point fingers at that kind of criminal effort, would be to see the level of frustration and exasperation and almost a sense of hopelessness that exists among some of those activists within the African American community," Cathy said in the discussion.
Chick-fil-A CEO Dan Cathy urged white people to take action against racism amid a period of tension and protest in the US, following the death Rayshard Brooks, a Black man who died after a white police officer shot him last week.
In a Sunday roundtable discussion at Passion City Church in Atlanta, Georgia with Passion City founder Louie Giglio and Lecrae, a Christian rapper, the fast-food chain CEO spoke of repentance and understanding.
The CEO said that a dozen Chick-fil-A restaurants had been vandalized in the last week, but urged white people not to place blame on the vandals.
"My plea would be for the white people, rather than point fingers at that kind of criminal effort, would be to see the level of frustration and exasperation and almost a sense of hopelessness that exists among some of those activists within the African-American community that are so exasperated," Cathy said.
Read more: The exec behind the Nike and Petco apps reveals why Chick-fil-A's chicken sandwich giveaways are a brilliant strategy
The Cathy family, which owns Chick-fil-A, cites Christian values as part of their philosophy guiding their leadership of the company. Founder Truett Cathy, Dan Cathy's father, translated his faith into his business practices, which has helped contribute to the fast-food giant's success.
During the roundtable, Cathy mentioned that "conscious and unconscious biases" at the workplace and in corporate offices are not entirely uncommon, mentioning a conversation he had with a Black Chick-fil-A employee who said she had experienced injustice in her job.
Dan Cathy previously outlined his thoughts on the current events in the US via a LinkedIn post, which was shared on the Chick-fil-A website. In the post, Cathy described the ways Chick-fil-A is helping to rebuild and donate resources to what he described as "the most distressed zip code in Georgia."
While discussing the topic of repentance, Cathy got up and shined Lecrae's shoes on stage and said that the world needs to have a sense of shame, embarrassment, and "an apologetic heart."
"Our silence is so huge in this time," Cathy said during the roundtable. "We cannot be silent. Somebody has to fight."
Read the original article on Business Insider
Cyrus McCrimmon/The Denver Post/Getty Images
Chick-fil-A CEO Dan Cathy urged white people to repent and take action against racism during a roundtable discussion Sunday at Passion City Church in Atlanta, Georgia.
Cathy said a dozen Chick-fil-A restaurants had been vandalized in the last week.
"My plea would be for the white people, rather than point fingers at that kind of criminal effort, would be to see the level of frustration and exasperation and almost a sense of hopelessness that exists among some of those activists within the African American community," Cathy said in the discussion.
Chick-fil-A CEO Dan Cathy urged white people to take action against racism amid a period of tension and protest in the US, following the death Rayshard Brooks, a Black man who died after a white police officer shot him last week.
In a Sunday roundtable discussion at Passion City Church in Atlanta, Georgia with Passion City founder Louie Giglio and Lecrae, a Christian rapper, the fast-food chain CEO spoke of repentance and understanding.
The CEO said that a dozen Chick-fil-A restaurants had been vandalized in the last week, but urged white people not to place blame on the vandals.
"My plea would be for the white people, rather than point fingers at that kind of criminal effort, would be to see the level of frustration and exasperation and almost a sense of hopelessness that exists among some of those activists within the African-American community that are so exasperated," Cathy said.
Read more: The exec behind the Nike and Petco apps reveals why Chick-fil-A's chicken sandwich giveaways are a brilliant strategy
The Cathy family, which owns Chick-fil-A, cites Christian values as part of their philosophy guiding their leadership of the company. Founder Truett Cathy, Dan Cathy's father, translated his faith into his business practices, which has helped contribute to the fast-food giant's success.
During the roundtable, Cathy mentioned that "conscious and unconscious biases" at the workplace and in corporate offices are not entirely uncommon, mentioning a conversation he had with a Black Chick-fil-A employee who said she had experienced injustice in her job.
Dan Cathy previously outlined his thoughts on the current events in the US via a LinkedIn post, which was shared on the Chick-fil-A website. In the post, Cathy described the ways Chick-fil-A is helping to rebuild and donate resources to what he described as "the most distressed zip code in Georgia."
While discussing the topic of repentance, Cathy got up and shined Lecrae's shoes on stage and said that the world needs to have a sense of shame, embarrassment, and "an apologetic heart."
"Our silence is so huge in this time," Cathy said during the roundtable. "We cannot be silent. Somebody has to fight."
Read the original article on Business Insider
Elderly Black Lives Matter protester injured by police and trolled by Trump in hiding after death threats
The Independent•June 19, 2020
A still from the video of two Buffalo police officers shoving Martin Gugino to the ground: WBFO NPR /AFP via Getty Images
Martin Gugino, the protester shoved to the ground by Buffalo police officers during the George Floyd protests, is recuperating in a secret location due to threats he's received.
Mr Gugino's attorney said on Thursday that his client had received "concerning and threatening messages and one letter" since he was assaulted by police officers in Buffalo.
The 75-year activist was seen in a viral video being shoved by a police officer. After hitting the ground, Mr Gugino lay unmoving, blood seeping from his ear. The officers marched by and ignored him, even after becoming aware of the blood. At one point, one officer actively prevents another officer from stopping to help.
Days after the video began circulating online, President Donald Trump tweeted out a conspiracy theory that Mr Gugino could have been an "antifa provocateur" who was trying to "scan police communications in order to black out the equipment."
The president's tweet – as well as other conspiracy theories alleging that Mr Gugino, a Catholic peace activist, was a plant or he was faking his injuries – has made the elderly activist a target of the far right.
Buffalo protester shoved by Police could be an ANTIFA provocateur. 75 year old Martin Gugino was pushed away after appearing to scan police communications in order to black out the equipment. @OANN I watched, he fell harder than was pushed. Was aiming scanner. Could be a set up?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)
June 9, 2020
His lawyer said the seriousness of the threats was still being determined.
"It is not clear that these are credible death threats. In order to avoid the risk, Martin will be recovering in an undisclosed location when he is released from the hospital. We do not expect that to happen for a good week, so things could change," Kelly Zarcone said.
Mr Gugino has been hospitalised since his injury, with recent reports suggesting he suffered a brain injury and hasn't been able to walk.
The police officers who shoved him, Robert McCabe and Aaron Togalski, were suspended from the Buffalo police department and were charged with assault. Both have pleaded not guilty.
Following their suspension, 57 of their fellow officers resigned their assignments on the Buffalo police department's emergency response team. Originally the resignations were publicised as an act of solidarity by the police union representing the department, but officers later refuted that claim, instead attributing the mass resignations to fears that the union wouldn't cover their legal fees if they were sued over actions they took in the George Floyd protests.
Martin Gugino, the protester shoved to the ground by Buffalo police officers during the George Floyd protests, is recuperating in a secret location due to threats he's received.
Mr Gugino's attorney said on Thursday that his client had received "concerning and threatening messages and one letter" since he was assaulted by police officers in Buffalo.
The 75-year activist was seen in a viral video being shoved by a police officer. After hitting the ground, Mr Gugino lay unmoving, blood seeping from his ear. The officers marched by and ignored him, even after becoming aware of the blood. At one point, one officer actively prevents another officer from stopping to help.
Days after the video began circulating online, President Donald Trump tweeted out a conspiracy theory that Mr Gugino could have been an "antifa provocateur" who was trying to "scan police communications in order to black out the equipment."
The president's tweet – as well as other conspiracy theories alleging that Mr Gugino, a Catholic peace activist, was a plant or he was faking his injuries – has made the elderly activist a target of the far right.
Buffalo protester shoved by Police could be an ANTIFA provocateur. 75 year old Martin Gugino was pushed away after appearing to scan police communications in order to black out the equipment. @OANN I watched, he fell harder than was pushed. Was aiming scanner. Could be a set up?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)
June 9, 2020
His lawyer said the seriousness of the threats was still being determined.
"It is not clear that these are credible death threats. In order to avoid the risk, Martin will be recovering in an undisclosed location when he is released from the hospital. We do not expect that to happen for a good week, so things could change," Kelly Zarcone said.
Mr Gugino has been hospitalised since his injury, with recent reports suggesting he suffered a brain injury and hasn't been able to walk.
The police officers who shoved him, Robert McCabe and Aaron Togalski, were suspended from the Buffalo police department and were charged with assault. Both have pleaded not guilty.
Following their suspension, 57 of their fellow officers resigned their assignments on the Buffalo police department's emergency response team. Originally the resignations were publicised as an act of solidarity by the police union representing the department, but officers later refuted that claim, instead attributing the mass resignations to fears that the union wouldn't cover their legal fees if they were sued over actions they took in the George Floyd protests.
COULD CHOCOLATE BE THE NEXT VICTIM OF THE PANDEMIC?
By Doloresz Katanich last updated: 19/06/2020 -
Did you know that on average, cocoa farmers earn just 6 per cent of the value of a chocolate bar?
Two-thirds of the world's chocolate supply comes from West Africa, but the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on the continent is now rising fast. The pandemic is exacerbating cocoa farmers' poverty, meaning they can't invest in proper protection from the virus.
This uncertainty and disruption in the supply chain could jeopardise the future of cocoa production, which is already suffering from the effects of climate change and deforestation.
UK-based charity Fairtrade Foundation says it is more important than ever to support these vulnerable communities, by purchasing Fairtrade certified products. Fairtrade farmers earn a fair wage and benefit from a higher quality of life.
By Doloresz Katanich last updated: 19/06/2020 -
Did you know that on average, cocoa farmers earn just 6 per cent of the value of a chocolate bar?
Two-thirds of the world's chocolate supply comes from West Africa, but the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on the continent is now rising fast. The pandemic is exacerbating cocoa farmers' poverty, meaning they can't invest in proper protection from the virus.
This uncertainty and disruption in the supply chain could jeopardise the future of cocoa production, which is already suffering from the effects of climate change and deforestation.
UK-based charity Fairtrade Foundation says it is more important than ever to support these vulnerable communities, by purchasing Fairtrade certified products. Fairtrade farmers earn a fair wage and benefit from a higher quality of life.
What is the truth behind the 5G coronavirus conspiracy theory? | Culture Clash
By Alexander Morgan • last updated: 15/05/2020
Conspiracy theorists link 5G to the coronavirus - Copyright Matt Dunham/Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Barrie Trower is a conspiracy theorist and says 5G is to blame for the rapid spread of COVID-19. He believes it degrades the immune system and that the dangers are being covered up by powerful forces in the global telecommunications industry.
Three months ago, Barrie was part of a tiny minority with these extreme and unfounded views. But all of that changed when COVID-19 spread and the world locked down.
Celebrities, with vast followings, started suggesting there could be truth to these unfounded claims by sharing the conspiracy theory into the mainstream.
Since then telecoms engineers have been spat at, threatened and chased down the streets. Phone masts have been set alight across Europe, threatening to cut off vital communications at a time of international emergency.
But what exactly are the claims that are fueling these conspiracies? And why are they dangerous nonsense?
First, there’s the claim that 5G has caused the virus. We can get rid of this right away.
Watch: The truth behind the 5G conspiracy theory
Scientists confirm that COVID-19 is transmitted via respiratory droplets, and they are quick to point out that you cannot transmit droplets through 5G waves.
Perhaps the most prevalent of all the theories is the suggestion that 5G degrades the immune system, and that this has helped spread COVID-19.
Firstly, many of the hardest-hit countries currently have no 5G infrastructure. Iran has over 114,000 confirmed cases - and no 5G masts.
Secondly, the theory that 5G is dangerous to the immune system is exactly the same claim we saw when 2G, 3G, 4G and WiFi were all launched.
5G waves are part of the electromagnetic spectrum and it is true that higher frequency radiation at the end of this spectrum does pose dangers.
By Alexander Morgan • last updated: 15/05/2020
Conspiracy theorists link 5G to the coronavirus - Copyright Matt Dunham/Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Barrie Trower is a conspiracy theorist and says 5G is to blame for the rapid spread of COVID-19. He believes it degrades the immune system and that the dangers are being covered up by powerful forces in the global telecommunications industry.
Three months ago, Barrie was part of a tiny minority with these extreme and unfounded views. But all of that changed when COVID-19 spread and the world locked down.
Celebrities, with vast followings, started suggesting there could be truth to these unfounded claims by sharing the conspiracy theory into the mainstream.
Since then telecoms engineers have been spat at, threatened and chased down the streets. Phone masts have been set alight across Europe, threatening to cut off vital communications at a time of international emergency.
But what exactly are the claims that are fueling these conspiracies? And why are they dangerous nonsense?
First, there’s the claim that 5G has caused the virus. We can get rid of this right away.
Watch: The truth behind the 5G conspiracy theory
Scientists confirm that COVID-19 is transmitted via respiratory droplets, and they are quick to point out that you cannot transmit droplets through 5G waves.
Perhaps the most prevalent of all the theories is the suggestion that 5G degrades the immune system, and that this has helped spread COVID-19.
Firstly, many of the hardest-hit countries currently have no 5G infrastructure. Iran has over 114,000 confirmed cases - and no 5G masts.
Secondly, the theory that 5G is dangerous to the immune system is exactly the same claim we saw when 2G, 3G, 4G and WiFi were all launched.
5G waves are part of the electromagnetic spectrum and it is true that higher frequency radiation at the end of this spectrum does pose dangers.
5G is non-ionising radiation ShutterStock
That’s because these high-frequency waves are “ionising”, meaning they can cause internal damage to our bodies if exposure is too great.
Take X-Rays as an example. These penetrate the body and are used for medical imaging, so a patient’s exposure must be limited.
5G is in a band of low-frequency waves, like WiFi, that are “non-ionising”. The overwhelming weight of scientific evidence has shown that non-ionising radiation does not cause internal damage to our cells.
So if we listen to the science, the simple fact is that 5G cannot be behind the pandemic, either by spreading the virus or by degrading our immune response.
That’s because these high-frequency waves are “ionising”, meaning they can cause internal damage to our bodies if exposure is too great.
Take X-Rays as an example. These penetrate the body and are used for medical imaging, so a patient’s exposure must be limited.
5G is in a band of low-frequency waves, like WiFi, that are “non-ionising”. The overwhelming weight of scientific evidence has shown that non-ionising radiation does not cause internal damage to our cells.
So if we listen to the science, the simple fact is that 5G cannot be behind the pandemic, either by spreading the virus or by degrading our immune response.
Barr tries to oust Manhattan U.S. attorney investigating Trump allies, who now refuses to step down
Berman says he has ‘no intention of resigning’; White House wants SEC chief Jay Clayton to take over role
Published: June 20, 2020 By Associated Press
Geoffrey Berman, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, speaks during a news conference in 2019. ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON — The Justice Department moved abruptly Friday to oust Geoffrey S. Berman, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan overseeing key prosecutions of President Donald Trump’s allies and an investigation of his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. But Berman said he was refusing to leave his post and his ongoing investigations would continue.
“I have not resigned, and have no intention of resigning, my position,” Berman said. His statement came hours Attorney General Bill Barr said Berman was stepping down from his position.
The standoff set off an extraordinary clash between the Justice Department and one of the nation’s top districts, which has tried major mob and terror cases over the years. It is also likely to deepen tensions between the Justice Department and congressional Democrats who have pointedly accused Barr of politicizing the agency and acting more like Trump’s personal lawyer than the nation’s chief law enforcement officer.
The move to oust Berman came days after allegations surfaced from former Trump national security adviser John Bolton that the president sought to interfere in an Southern District investigation into the state-owned Turkish bank in an effort to cut deals with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Barr offered no explanation for the move in the statement he issued late Friday. The White House quickly announced that Trump was nominating the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission to the job, a lawyer with virtually no experience as a federal prosecutor.
Hours later, Berman issued his own statement saying he had learned that he was being pushed out through media report. He vowed to stay on the job until a Trump nominee is confirmed by the Senate. The investigations he oversees will continue, he said.
Federal prosecutors in New York are investigating Giuliani’s business dealings, including whether he failed to register as a foreign agent, according to people familiar with the probe. The people were not authorized to discuss the investigation publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The office has also prosecuted a number of Trump associates, including Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, who served a prison sentence for lying to Congress and campaign finance crimes.
Berman has also overseen the prosecution of two Florida businessmen, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, who were associates of Giuliani and tied to the Ukraine impeachment investigation. The men were charged in October with federal campaign finance violations, including hiding the origin of a $325,000 donation to a group supporting Trump’s reelection.
Bolton’s tell-all, excerpts of which were posted by the news media this week, included details on how Trump sought to cut a deal to halt SDNY’s investigation into whether Halkbank violated U.S. sanctions against Iran in order to free an American pastor imprisoned in Turkey. Six weeks after the pastor’s release, Bolton writes that on a call with Erdoğan, “Trump then told Erdoğan he would take care of things, explaining that the Southern District prosecutors were not his people, but were Obama people, a problem that would be fixed when they were replaced by his people.” The episode occurred months after Berman assumed the role of U.S. attorney.
A Republican who contributed to the president’s election campaign, Berman worked for the same law firm as Giuliani and was put in his job by the Trump administration. But as U.S. attorney, he won over some skeptics after he went after Trump allies.
Berman was appointed by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions in January 2018, months after Bharara was fired after refusing to resign along with dozens of other federal prosecutors appointed by President Barack Obama.
Three months later, FBI agents raided Cohen’s offices, an act the president decried as a politically motivated witch hunt.
The following April, in the absence of a formal nomination by Trump, the judges in Manhattan federal court voted to appoint Berman to the position permanently. He has taken a direct hand in other investigations that have angered Trump.
His office subpoenaed Trump’s inaugural committee for a wide range of documents as part of an investigation into various potential crimes, including possible illegal contributions from foreigners to inaugural events.
And weeks before the 2018 midterm election, Berman announced insider trading charges against an ardent Trump supporter, Republican Rep. Chris Collins. Collins, who represented western New York, has since resigned.
Under Berman’s tenure, his office also brought charges against Michael Avenatti, the combative lawyer who gained fame by representing porn actress Stormy Daniels in lawsuits involving Trump. Avenatti was convicted in February of trying to extort Nike after prosecutors said he threatened to use his media access to hurt Nike’s r
Geoffrey Berman, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, speaks during a news conference in 2019. ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON — The Justice Department moved abruptly Friday to oust Geoffrey S. Berman, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan overseeing key prosecutions of President Donald Trump’s allies and an investigation of his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. But Berman said he was refusing to leave his post and his ongoing investigations would continue.
“I have not resigned, and have no intention of resigning, my position,” Berman said. His statement came hours Attorney General Bill Barr said Berman was stepping down from his position.
The standoff set off an extraordinary clash between the Justice Department and one of the nation’s top districts, which has tried major mob and terror cases over the years. It is also likely to deepen tensions between the Justice Department and congressional Democrats who have pointedly accused Barr of politicizing the agency and acting more like Trump’s personal lawyer than the nation’s chief law enforcement officer.
The move to oust Berman came days after allegations surfaced from former Trump national security adviser John Bolton that the president sought to interfere in an Southern District investigation into the state-owned Turkish bank in an effort to cut deals with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Barr offered no explanation for the move in the statement he issued late Friday. The White House quickly announced that Trump was nominating the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission to the job, a lawyer with virtually no experience as a federal prosecutor.
Hours later, Berman issued his own statement saying he had learned that he was being pushed out through media report. He vowed to stay on the job until a Trump nominee is confirmed by the Senate. The investigations he oversees will continue, he said.
Federal prosecutors in New York are investigating Giuliani’s business dealings, including whether he failed to register as a foreign agent, according to people familiar with the probe. The people were not authorized to discuss the investigation publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The office has also prosecuted a number of Trump associates, including Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen, who served a prison sentence for lying to Congress and campaign finance crimes.
Berman has also overseen the prosecution of two Florida businessmen, Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, who were associates of Giuliani and tied to the Ukraine impeachment investigation. The men were charged in October with federal campaign finance violations, including hiding the origin of a $325,000 donation to a group supporting Trump’s reelection.
Bolton’s tell-all, excerpts of which were posted by the news media this week, included details on how Trump sought to cut a deal to halt SDNY’s investigation into whether Halkbank violated U.S. sanctions against Iran in order to free an American pastor imprisoned in Turkey. Six weeks after the pastor’s release, Bolton writes that on a call with Erdoğan, “Trump then told Erdoğan he would take care of things, explaining that the Southern District prosecutors were not his people, but were Obama people, a problem that would be fixed when they were replaced by his people.” The episode occurred months after Berman assumed the role of U.S. attorney.
A Republican who contributed to the president’s election campaign, Berman worked for the same law firm as Giuliani and was put in his job by the Trump administration. But as U.S. attorney, he won over some skeptics after he went after Trump allies.
Berman was appointed by then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions in January 2018, months after Bharara was fired after refusing to resign along with dozens of other federal prosecutors appointed by President Barack Obama.
Three months later, FBI agents raided Cohen’s offices, an act the president decried as a politically motivated witch hunt.
The following April, in the absence of a formal nomination by Trump, the judges in Manhattan federal court voted to appoint Berman to the position permanently. He has taken a direct hand in other investigations that have angered Trump.
His office subpoenaed Trump’s inaugural committee for a wide range of documents as part of an investigation into various potential crimes, including possible illegal contributions from foreigners to inaugural events.
And weeks before the 2018 midterm election, Berman announced insider trading charges against an ardent Trump supporter, Republican Rep. Chris Collins. Collins, who represented western New York, has since resigned.
Under Berman’s tenure, his office also brought charges against Michael Avenatti, the combative lawyer who gained fame by representing porn actress Stormy Daniels in lawsuits involving Trump. Avenatti was convicted in February of trying to extort Nike after prosecutors said he threatened to use his media access to hurt Nike’s r
Friday, June 19, 2020
SUPERSPREADERS COVID-TRUMPERS
Trump rally attendees dismiss heat and coronavirus concerns as they line up outside Tulsa arena
Temperatures in Tulsa have reached the 90s, and the Trump faithful are camped in an area with hardly a spot of shade
Trump rally attendees dismiss heat and coronavirus concerns as they line up outside Tulsa arena
Temperatures in Tulsa have reached the 90s, and the Trump faithful are camped in an area with hardly a spot of shade
Published: June 19, 2020 By Associated Press
Trump supporters, including a man dressed in a suit representing a border wall even as the mercury hits 90° in Tulsa, line up outside outside the BOK Center arena on Thursday, two days ahead of the first Trump rally since early March. ASSOCIATED PRESS
TULSA, Okla. (AP) — Rick Frazier drove more than 750 miles from Ohio to be one of the first campers in line for President Donald Trump’s first rally in months, undeterred by a days-long wait in searing heat, the growing risk of the coronavirus in Oklahoma or a lukewarm reception from local officials.
The 64-year-old is among scores of supporters who have brought their vans, tents, campers and Trump flags to the parking lots and sidewalks outside the 19,000-seat BOK Center, and who say what matters most is being there to see the president take the stage on Saturday — and to be sure he knows they have his back.
“The big thing is to go in and support the president,” said Frazier, who arrived Tuesday for what will be his 21st Trump rally. Frazier said he feels safe, noting he and other campers are using hand sanitizer to prevent spread of COVID-19.
Tulsa’s mayor, G.T. Bynum, declared a civil emergency and set a curfew for the area around the BOK Center ahead of the rally Saturday night.
The state supreme on Friday afternoon rejected a last-ditch appeal to require that rally attendees adhere to CDC guidelines on face masks and social distancing. The Tulsa lawyer who brought the suit, according to the newspaper Tulsa World, said the goal was to limit the risk to local public health.
The court said the Tulsa residents who had asked that the thousands expected at the rally be required to take the precautions couldn’t establish that they had a clear legal right to the relief sought. In a concurring opinion, two justices wrote that the state’s reopening plan is “permissive, suggestive and discretionary.”
A local convenience-store chain has reportedly opted to close over concerns for employee health and safety rather than seek to capitalize on the influx of prospective shoppers.
The president issued this crackdown threat on Twitter to would-be demonstrators, even as campaign representative Marc Lotter was telling MSNBC that peaceful exercise of the First Amendment right to protest is welcome:
Trump rallies are known for an atmosphere akin to a political tailgate party and have always drawn diehard fans who often travel from event to event and sleep outside for days to secure a spot and pass time. Some are self-described “front-row Joes.” The groups gathering in Tulsa are taking that loyalty to a new level, though some called the coronavirus threat “an exaggeration.”
Temperatures in Tulsa have reached the 90s, and the Trump faithful are camped in an area with hardly a spot of shade. While Trump said Thursday he picked Oklahoma partly because “you’ve done so well with the COVID,” the city has seen record numbers of new coronavirus cases this week, and Tulsa Health Department Director Bruce Dart has pushed for a postponement of the event.
Trump said there had been “tremendous requests for tickets” and that there will be “a crowd like I guess nobody has seen before,” creating the kind of packed, indoor space that scientists say heighten the virus’s spread as compared with outdoor gatherings.
His rallies typically include a lot of shouting and chanting, and attendees often travel from long distances, prompting fears they could be infected and then spread it to people back home, or bring it from their hometowns and become vectors within the Tulsa arena. In an attempt to protect itself from lawsuits, Trump’s campaign added language to the event registration stating guests assumed risk for exposure to COVID-19.
Key Words:Trump adviser Kudlow talks up limiting coronavirus liability for businesses: ‘I don’t think there should be a lawsuit’
But meeting with Trump at the White House on Thursday, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt pledged the state is ready, noting its rate of positive COVID-19 tests is lower than many other states. As of this week, Tulsa County has displaced Oklahoma County as the state’s leading COVID-19 hot spot with 1,825 cases.
“It’s going to be safe,” said Stitt, a Trump-aligned Republican who was recommending dining in restaurants even as the World Health Organization made its pandemic declaration in March. “We have to learn how to be safe and how to move on.”
That has not reassured BOK Center management, who requested a written health and safety plan from the Trump campaign on Thursday. In a statement to Oklahoma City television station KFOR, rally organizers appeared unimpressed but said they would review the request.
The Trump campaign said Thursday that it takes “safety seriously,” noting that organizers are providing masks, hand sanitizers and doing temperature checks for all attendees.
“This will be a Trump rally, which means a big, boisterous, excited crowd,” the campaign said. “We don’t recall the media shaming [anti-racism] demonstrators about social distancing — in fact the media were cheering them on.”
Stitt, the governor, suggested in a Fox News interview that the campaign’s response was good enough for him:
Trump had originally been scheduled to speak on Friday. He changed the date amid an uproar that it would occur on Juneteenth, which marks the end of slavery in the U.S., and in a city where a 1921 white-on-black attack killed as many as 300 people. Black community leaders — some of whom characterized the originally targeted date as a slap in the face — said they still worry Saturday’s rally could spark violence.
Juneteenth:Special coverage of date marking slavery’s end, including stories reparations, the salary gap, education and student debt, policing and more
Trump has been on a hiatus from the rallies that have been a centerpiece of his campaign — and indeed, unusually, his entire presidency — halting them since March 2 because of the spreading virus, which has killed more than 118,000 people in the U.S. But he has been eager to return to the events, which allow him to rally his base and build the campaign database of supporters. (Campaign manager Brad Parscale has crowed that the Tulsa arena is significantly oversubscribed — going on to describe those requesting the free tickets as having participated in a campaign “data haul.”)
Saturday’s rally also could provide a bit of diversion from criticism over Trump’s handling of the pandemic and the protests following the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis.
Rainey Strader, 48, who traveled to Tulsa from Iowa with her husband and 75-year-old mother, said she brought a mask but isn’t sure if she will wear it once she gets inside the venue. Strader said she isn’t worried about COVID-19, which she considers to be “like the flu.”
“It’s just a new thing, and everybody’s worried,” said Strader, who was working a word-search puzzle while she waited Thursday with her mother as her husband slept in their van. “It’s exaggerated.”
Strader’s mother, Catherine Pahsetopah, said she’s also not sure whether she will wear her mask, despite being considered high-risk for COVID-19 because of her age and health problems. She said she’s seen presidents come and go — all the way “back to Eisenhower” — and Trump ranks among the best.
“He’s great. He’s wonderful,” Pahsetopah said, adding: “If John Kennedy knew what happened to the Democratic Party he wouldn’t want them” because of their support for “aborting the babies.”
Delmer Phillips, 41, of Tulsa, described himself and others who showed up early for the rally as “front-row Joes” who are excited to get a glimpse of the president. He said he won’t wear a mask this weekend because he believes he may have already had the virus and has built up immunity.
“I’m personally not so worried about it,” he said. “I believe in God, and I don’t live in fear.”
MarketWatch contributed to this report.
Trump supporters, including a man dressed in a suit representing a border wall even as the mercury hits 90° in Tulsa, line up outside outside the BOK Center arena on Thursday, two days ahead of the first Trump rally since early March. ASSOCIATED PRESS
TULSA, Okla. (AP) — Rick Frazier drove more than 750 miles from Ohio to be one of the first campers in line for President Donald Trump’s first rally in months, undeterred by a days-long wait in searing heat, the growing risk of the coronavirus in Oklahoma or a lukewarm reception from local officials.
The 64-year-old is among scores of supporters who have brought their vans, tents, campers and Trump flags to the parking lots and sidewalks outside the 19,000-seat BOK Center, and who say what matters most is being there to see the president take the stage on Saturday — and to be sure he knows they have his back.
“The big thing is to go in and support the president,” said Frazier, who arrived Tuesday for what will be his 21st Trump rally. Frazier said he feels safe, noting he and other campers are using hand sanitizer to prevent spread of COVID-19.
Tulsa’s mayor, G.T. Bynum, declared a civil emergency and set a curfew for the area around the BOK Center ahead of the rally Saturday night.
The state supreme on Friday afternoon rejected a last-ditch appeal to require that rally attendees adhere to CDC guidelines on face masks and social distancing. The Tulsa lawyer who brought the suit, according to the newspaper Tulsa World, said the goal was to limit the risk to local public health.
The court said the Tulsa residents who had asked that the thousands expected at the rally be required to take the precautions couldn’t establish that they had a clear legal right to the relief sought. In a concurring opinion, two justices wrote that the state’s reopening plan is “permissive, suggestive and discretionary.”
A local convenience-store chain has reportedly opted to close over concerns for employee health and safety rather than seek to capitalize on the influx of prospective shoppers.
The president issued this crackdown threat on Twitter to would-be demonstrators, even as campaign representative Marc Lotter was telling MSNBC that peaceful exercise of the First Amendment right to protest is welcome:
Trump rallies are known for an atmosphere akin to a political tailgate party and have always drawn diehard fans who often travel from event to event and sleep outside for days to secure a spot and pass time. Some are self-described “front-row Joes.” The groups gathering in Tulsa are taking that loyalty to a new level, though some called the coronavirus threat “an exaggeration.”
Temperatures in Tulsa have reached the 90s, and the Trump faithful are camped in an area with hardly a spot of shade. While Trump said Thursday he picked Oklahoma partly because “you’ve done so well with the COVID,” the city has seen record numbers of new coronavirus cases this week, and Tulsa Health Department Director Bruce Dart has pushed for a postponement of the event.
Trump said there had been “tremendous requests for tickets” and that there will be “a crowd like I guess nobody has seen before,” creating the kind of packed, indoor space that scientists say heighten the virus’s spread as compared with outdoor gatherings.
His rallies typically include a lot of shouting and chanting, and attendees often travel from long distances, prompting fears they could be infected and then spread it to people back home, or bring it from their hometowns and become vectors within the Tulsa arena. In an attempt to protect itself from lawsuits, Trump’s campaign added language to the event registration stating guests assumed risk for exposure to COVID-19.
Key Words:Trump adviser Kudlow talks up limiting coronavirus liability for businesses: ‘I don’t think there should be a lawsuit’
But meeting with Trump at the White House on Thursday, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt pledged the state is ready, noting its rate of positive COVID-19 tests is lower than many other states. As of this week, Tulsa County has displaced Oklahoma County as the state’s leading COVID-19 hot spot with 1,825 cases.
“It’s going to be safe,” said Stitt, a Trump-aligned Republican who was recommending dining in restaurants even as the World Health Organization made its pandemic declaration in March. “We have to learn how to be safe and how to move on.”
That has not reassured BOK Center management, who requested a written health and safety plan from the Trump campaign on Thursday. In a statement to Oklahoma City television station KFOR, rally organizers appeared unimpressed but said they would review the request.
The Trump campaign said Thursday that it takes “safety seriously,” noting that organizers are providing masks, hand sanitizers and doing temperature checks for all attendees.
“This will be a Trump rally, which means a big, boisterous, excited crowd,” the campaign said. “We don’t recall the media shaming [anti-racism] demonstrators about social distancing — in fact the media were cheering them on.”
Stitt, the governor, suggested in a Fox News interview that the campaign’s response was good enough for him:
Trump had originally been scheduled to speak on Friday. He changed the date amid an uproar that it would occur on Juneteenth, which marks the end of slavery in the U.S., and in a city where a 1921 white-on-black attack killed as many as 300 people. Black community leaders — some of whom characterized the originally targeted date as a slap in the face — said they still worry Saturday’s rally could spark violence.
Juneteenth:Special coverage of date marking slavery’s end, including stories reparations, the salary gap, education and student debt, policing and more
Trump has been on a hiatus from the rallies that have been a centerpiece of his campaign — and indeed, unusually, his entire presidency — halting them since March 2 because of the spreading virus, which has killed more than 118,000 people in the U.S. But he has been eager to return to the events, which allow him to rally his base and build the campaign database of supporters. (Campaign manager Brad Parscale has crowed that the Tulsa arena is significantly oversubscribed — going on to describe those requesting the free tickets as having participated in a campaign “data haul.”)
Saturday’s rally also could provide a bit of diversion from criticism over Trump’s handling of the pandemic and the protests following the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis.
Rainey Strader, 48, who traveled to Tulsa from Iowa with her husband and 75-year-old mother, said she brought a mask but isn’t sure if she will wear it once she gets inside the venue. Strader said she isn’t worried about COVID-19, which she considers to be “like the flu.”
“It’s just a new thing, and everybody’s worried,” said Strader, who was working a word-search puzzle while she waited Thursday with her mother as her husband slept in their van. “It’s exaggerated.”
Strader’s mother, Catherine Pahsetopah, said she’s also not sure whether she will wear her mask, despite being considered high-risk for COVID-19 because of her age and health problems. She said she’s seen presidents come and go — all the way “back to Eisenhower” — and Trump ranks among the best.
“He’s great. He’s wonderful,” Pahsetopah said, adding: “If John Kennedy knew what happened to the Democratic Party he wouldn’t want them” because of their support for “aborting the babies.”
Delmer Phillips, 41, of Tulsa, described himself and others who showed up early for the rally as “front-row Joes” who are excited to get a glimpse of the president. He said he won’t wear a mask this weekend because he believes he may have already had the virus and has built up immunity.
“I’m personally not so worried about it,” he said. “I believe in God, and I don’t live in fear.”
MarketWatch contributed to this report.
In One Chart
‘La la land?’ The stock market is ‘insanely disconnected’ and due for a ‘reckoning,’ Warren Buffett buff warns
‘La la land?’ The stock market is ‘insanely disconnected’ and due for a ‘reckoning,’ Warren Buffett buff warns
Published: June 18, 2020 By Shawn Langlois
Are investors in "La La Land"... ? EVERETT/LIONS GATE
Those betting against this “absurdly overvalued” stock market are about to get paid, if Kevin Smith, Crescat Capital’s chief investment officer, has it right in his gloomy assessment.
“Speculation is rampant and being championed by a bold new breed of millennial day traders,” he said. “The mania is based on a widespread hope in Fed money printing. The catalysts for reckoning are numerous as a major cyclical economic downturn has only just begun.”
Smith, who recently talked about learning the ropes from a stack of Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, -0.51% BRK.B, -0.55% shareholders letters his dad gave him long ago, said, in a very un–Warren Buffett fashion, that shorting stocks “is worthy of a significant allocation today.”
Smith used this chart of plunging S&P 500 SPX, -0.56% profit margins to show “how insanely disconnected equity prices are from their underlying fundamentals.” He warned that buy-the-dip investors are “not paying attention and have simply been too eager to call the bottom.”
Smith reiterated his “macro trade of the century” call that there’s never been a better set-up for rotating out of overvalued stocks and into undervalued precious metals.
“Markets driven by euphoria never end well,” he explained in a note to clients this week. “The U.S. stock market today is in la-la land. It is discounting a new expansion phase of the economy at the same time as a major recession has only just begun.”
Smith took some lumps in his funds when the market was soaring early in the year, but his returns ballooned in March as the coronavirus pandemic arrived. Here are his historical numbers:
The severe “reckoning” Smith has been warning about hasn’t arrived as of Thursday’s trading session, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.80%, S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.03% were all under pressure, at last check.
Are investors in "La La Land"... ? EVERETT/LIONS GATE
Those betting against this “absurdly overvalued” stock market are about to get paid, if Kevin Smith, Crescat Capital’s chief investment officer, has it right in his gloomy assessment.
“Speculation is rampant and being championed by a bold new breed of millennial day traders,” he said. “The mania is based on a widespread hope in Fed money printing. The catalysts for reckoning are numerous as a major cyclical economic downturn has only just begun.”
Smith, who recently talked about learning the ropes from a stack of Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, -0.51% BRK.B, -0.55% shareholders letters his dad gave him long ago, said, in a very un–Warren Buffett fashion, that shorting stocks “is worthy of a significant allocation today.”
Smith used this chart of plunging S&P 500 SPX, -0.56% profit margins to show “how insanely disconnected equity prices are from their underlying fundamentals.” He warned that buy-the-dip investors are “not paying attention and have simply been too eager to call the bottom.”
Smith reiterated his “macro trade of the century” call that there’s never been a better set-up for rotating out of overvalued stocks and into undervalued precious metals.
“Markets driven by euphoria never end well,” he explained in a note to clients this week. “The U.S. stock market today is in la-la land. It is discounting a new expansion phase of the economy at the same time as a major recession has only just begun.”
Smith took some lumps in his funds when the market was soaring early in the year, but his returns ballooned in March as the coronavirus pandemic arrived. Here are his historical numbers:
The severe “reckoning” Smith has been warning about hasn’t arrived as of Thursday’s trading session, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.80%, S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.03% were all under pressure, at last check.
Opinion: Here’s why the FDA may approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections, according to Jefferies’ biotech-research team
If true, any approval may not actually benefit a vaccine company, but instead other parts of the stock market
GIVES NEW MEANING TO; VIRAL POLITICKS
GIVES NEW MEANING TO; VIRAL POLITICKS
GETTY IMAGES
Published: June 19, 2020 By Michael Brush
As fears of a second wave of Covid-19 weigh on stocks, here’s some potentially good news: A vaccine may be approved before the November election, according to a major biotechnology investing research firm.
The prediction is a big deal for investors for three reasons.
1. It’s credible because it comes from Jefferies, a high-profile brokerage in biotech and pharma that’s wired in to literally hundreds of companies in the group, including the major vaccine developers. Jefferies has nine analysts covering the industry.
2. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of a vaccine ahead of voting could have an impact on the elections, possibly swaying the outcome in favor of President Trump.
3. For investors, early vaccine approval would be bullish for biotech stocks, cyclical stocks, travel stocks, the economy and the market overall. The S&P 500 Index US:SPX and the Dow Jones Industrial Average US:DJIA have recovered most of their March losses, and the Nasdaq Composite Index US:COMP recently hit new highs. They’ll need some good news to support further advances.
Ironically, early vaccine approvals probably won’t mean much for investors who have already enjoyed good runs in vaccine developers. It might not mean much for most people worried about contracting the virus, either. Weird, right? We’ll get to that later in this column.
Bold prediction
We hear time and again that vaccines take 10 to 15 years to research and bring to market. So given the limited timeline of Covid-19 vaccine safety and efficacy studies to date, the following is a bold projection.
“We believe the FDA will likely approve at least one vaccine prior to the November election,” Jefferies health-care strategist Jared Holz said in an interview. “Perhaps multiple vaccines could get the go-ahead at some point early in the fourth quarter and quell fears of a second wave of Covid-19.”
But this isn’t too off the wall, even if Covid-19 vaccines have only been investigated for under a year. That’s because Holz is basing his prediction, in part, on signals from vaccine-development companies.
He says New York-based Jefferies has heard from several vaccine developers — including Moderna US:MRNA and AstraZeneca US:AZN — that an emergency authorization may happen before the elections. And just as important, they’ll be close to having the capacity to produce millions of doses.
“That sets a very high bar, which no one is asking them to set,” says Holz.
Efficacy studies will continue. Moderna is moving into Phase II Covid-19 vaccine trials now, and it will start a larger Phase III clinical study at the beginning of July, the company has said. Both trials look at efficacy, and they will continue to examine safety. Many other vaccine companies are on a similar timeline.
Machiavellian maneuver
Here are three other reasons we may well see Covid-19 vaccine approval before early November.
1. President Trump has a penchant for timing policy decisions (such as China trade negotiation breakthroughs) to influence the markets and the electorate at key tactical turning points. So it won’t be surprising if he exerts behind-the-scenes pressure to get vaccine approval to boost ratings and his odds against the Democrats, says Holz. Sounds Machiavellian. But welcome to politics.
2. The federal government is directly funding many of the vaccine-development programs. This “raises the odds of near-term approval, given the inherent bias,” says Holz.
3. Initial approval would be for emergency use only, which lowers the research hurdles for efficacy. “The efficacy bar will be fairly low considering the toll Covid-19 has taken on the world over the past four to six months from a health and an economic standpoint,” says Holz.
Emergency-use approval seems like a letdown because it would take a lot of potential beneficiaries, including you and me, out of the equation. Health-care workers would be first in line. But limited-use approval would still be important for investors and the economy.
Here’s why.
It would help the health-care system. Our leaders shut down much of the economy when Covid-19 struck because they had failed to prepare the health-care system for a pandemic. Having vaccines that might keep more front-line health care workers on the job and healthy — boosting their morale and numbers — would take some of the pressure off politicians to reimpose fresh lockdowns to “flatten the curve” in a resurgence.
Will we get a resurgence? Probably, but not right now. I think the current resurgence data are just noise. The case-count data are based on non-random samples, which renders them meaningless, statistically. Florida tested more and found more, in lockstep. Exactly what you would expect. The Florida data do not show a resurgence in Covid-19, only more testing.
But I do expect a meaningful resurgence starting in early October when the flu season begins. This is what happened with the swine flu in 2010 and the Spanish flu a century ago. However, the October resurgence won’t be as scary as round one, because a lot of people will already have been exposed, and we will have better testing and tracking capabilities to support selective rather than blanket lockdowns. And we might even have a vaccine.
Vaccine investors, hold the Champagne
Early approval of vaccines before the elections probably wouldn’t help investors in the companies developing them, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, Pfizer US:PFE, Johnson & Johnson US:JNJ, Sanofi US:SNY, Inovio Pharmaceuticals US:INO, Novavax US:NVAX and Arcturus Therapeutics US:ARCT, among others.
That’s because many of the stocks have already risen a lot, especially those closer to being pure plays because they are smaller.
Next, it would be bad PR for vaccine producers to be seen making a lot of profits off a global pandemic health crisis. (The same goes for Covid-19 therapy developers including Gilead US:GILD, which is researching remdesivir as a treatment.) Given the government’s role in funding research, it would likewise also pressure vaccine makers to cap pricing.
Winners
But many other investors would benefit from vaccine approvals. Biotech and pharma investors would get a boost if the public and politicians view them as having “saved the day” in the Covid-19 crisis. That would mean there would be less pressure for them to rein in drug pricing.
That would support biotech and pharma companies and exchange traded funds including iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index US:IBB and SPDR S&P Biotech US:XBI. They have been plagued for years by worries the government will regulate drug prices.
“In the end, a vaccine likely does more for the sector as whole from a sentiment standpoint,” says Jefferies’ Holz.
Vaccine approval would also help cyclical and travel stocks because it would lower the odds of another full lockdown. It would also benefit a group I call “public-gathering-place” stocks.
A portfolio of eight public gathering place stocks I suggested in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks, on March 17 was already up 71% by the close June 15, compared with 26.3% gains for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust US:SPY. I wrote about this topic in MarketWatch last month.
I expect further gains from those stocks when vaccines are approved. My portfolio includes Churchill Downs US:CHDN, Royal Caribbean Cruises US:RCL, Carnival US:CCL, Planet Fitness US:PLNT and Cedar Fair US:FUN in amusement parks.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush owned CHDN and CCL. Brush has suggested PFE, JNJ, SNY, INO, NVAX, IBB, XBI, CHDN, RCL, CCL, PLNT and FUN in his stock newsletter, Brush Up on Stocks. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School. Follow Brush on Twitter: @mbrushstocks.
Published: June 19, 2020 By Michael Brush
As fears of a second wave of Covid-19 weigh on stocks, here’s some potentially good news: A vaccine may be approved before the November election, according to a major biotechnology investing research firm.
The prediction is a big deal for investors for three reasons.
1. It’s credible because it comes from Jefferies, a high-profile brokerage in biotech and pharma that’s wired in to literally hundreds of companies in the group, including the major vaccine developers. Jefferies has nine analysts covering the industry.
2. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of a vaccine ahead of voting could have an impact on the elections, possibly swaying the outcome in favor of President Trump.
3. For investors, early vaccine approval would be bullish for biotech stocks, cyclical stocks, travel stocks, the economy and the market overall. The S&P 500 Index US:SPX and the Dow Jones Industrial Average US:DJIA have recovered most of their March losses, and the Nasdaq Composite Index US:COMP recently hit new highs. They’ll need some good news to support further advances.
Ironically, early vaccine approvals probably won’t mean much for investors who have already enjoyed good runs in vaccine developers. It might not mean much for most people worried about contracting the virus, either. Weird, right? We’ll get to that later in this column.
Bold prediction
We hear time and again that vaccines take 10 to 15 years to research and bring to market. So given the limited timeline of Covid-19 vaccine safety and efficacy studies to date, the following is a bold projection.
“We believe the FDA will likely approve at least one vaccine prior to the November election,” Jefferies health-care strategist Jared Holz said in an interview. “Perhaps multiple vaccines could get the go-ahead at some point early in the fourth quarter and quell fears of a second wave of Covid-19.”
But this isn’t too off the wall, even if Covid-19 vaccines have only been investigated for under a year. That’s because Holz is basing his prediction, in part, on signals from vaccine-development companies.
He says New York-based Jefferies has heard from several vaccine developers — including Moderna US:MRNA and AstraZeneca US:AZN — that an emergency authorization may happen before the elections. And just as important, they’ll be close to having the capacity to produce millions of doses.
“That sets a very high bar, which no one is asking them to set,” says Holz.
Efficacy studies will continue. Moderna is moving into Phase II Covid-19 vaccine trials now, and it will start a larger Phase III clinical study at the beginning of July, the company has said. Both trials look at efficacy, and they will continue to examine safety. Many other vaccine companies are on a similar timeline.
Machiavellian maneuver
Here are three other reasons we may well see Covid-19 vaccine approval before early November.
1. President Trump has a penchant for timing policy decisions (such as China trade negotiation breakthroughs) to influence the markets and the electorate at key tactical turning points. So it won’t be surprising if he exerts behind-the-scenes pressure to get vaccine approval to boost ratings and his odds against the Democrats, says Holz. Sounds Machiavellian. But welcome to politics.
2. The federal government is directly funding many of the vaccine-development programs. This “raises the odds of near-term approval, given the inherent bias,” says Holz.
3. Initial approval would be for emergency use only, which lowers the research hurdles for efficacy. “The efficacy bar will be fairly low considering the toll Covid-19 has taken on the world over the past four to six months from a health and an economic standpoint,” says Holz.
Emergency-use approval seems like a letdown because it would take a lot of potential beneficiaries, including you and me, out of the equation. Health-care workers would be first in line. But limited-use approval would still be important for investors and the economy.
Here’s why.
It would help the health-care system. Our leaders shut down much of the economy when Covid-19 struck because they had failed to prepare the health-care system for a pandemic. Having vaccines that might keep more front-line health care workers on the job and healthy — boosting their morale and numbers — would take some of the pressure off politicians to reimpose fresh lockdowns to “flatten the curve” in a resurgence.
Will we get a resurgence? Probably, but not right now. I think the current resurgence data are just noise. The case-count data are based on non-random samples, which renders them meaningless, statistically. Florida tested more and found more, in lockstep. Exactly what you would expect. The Florida data do not show a resurgence in Covid-19, only more testing.
But I do expect a meaningful resurgence starting in early October when the flu season begins. This is what happened with the swine flu in 2010 and the Spanish flu a century ago. However, the October resurgence won’t be as scary as round one, because a lot of people will already have been exposed, and we will have better testing and tracking capabilities to support selective rather than blanket lockdowns. And we might even have a vaccine.
Vaccine investors, hold the Champagne
Early approval of vaccines before the elections probably wouldn’t help investors in the companies developing them, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, Pfizer US:PFE, Johnson & Johnson US:JNJ, Sanofi US:SNY, Inovio Pharmaceuticals US:INO, Novavax US:NVAX and Arcturus Therapeutics US:ARCT, among others.
That’s because many of the stocks have already risen a lot, especially those closer to being pure plays because they are smaller.
Next, it would be bad PR for vaccine producers to be seen making a lot of profits off a global pandemic health crisis. (The same goes for Covid-19 therapy developers including Gilead US:GILD, which is researching remdesivir as a treatment.) Given the government’s role in funding research, it would likewise also pressure vaccine makers to cap pricing.
Winners
But many other investors would benefit from vaccine approvals. Biotech and pharma investors would get a boost if the public and politicians view them as having “saved the day” in the Covid-19 crisis. That would mean there would be less pressure for them to rein in drug pricing.
That would support biotech and pharma companies and exchange traded funds including iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index US:IBB and SPDR S&P Biotech US:XBI. They have been plagued for years by worries the government will regulate drug prices.
“In the end, a vaccine likely does more for the sector as whole from a sentiment standpoint,” says Jefferies’ Holz.
Vaccine approval would also help cyclical and travel stocks because it would lower the odds of another full lockdown. It would also benefit a group I call “public-gathering-place” stocks.
A portfolio of eight public gathering place stocks I suggested in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks, on March 17 was already up 71% by the close June 15, compared with 26.3% gains for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust US:SPY. I wrote about this topic in MarketWatch last month.
I expect further gains from those stocks when vaccines are approved. My portfolio includes Churchill Downs US:CHDN, Royal Caribbean Cruises US:RCL, Carnival US:CCL, Planet Fitness US:PLNT and Cedar Fair US:FUN in amusement parks.
At the time of publication, Michael Brush owned CHDN and CCL. Brush has suggested PFE, JNJ, SNY, INO, NVAX, IBB, XBI, CHDN, RCL, CCL, PLNT and FUN in his stock newsletter, Brush Up on Stocks. Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School. Follow Brush on Twitter: @mbrushstocks.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)