Surfside collapse: How safe are our coastal buildings?

BY TIMOTHY H. DIXON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 07/09/21 

© Getty

The tragic collapse of the ocean-front Champlain Towers in Surfside, north of Miami, has captured the attention of high-rise dwellers around the world. In Florida, people are understandably worried about the safety of their own buildings, with questions asked about the role of sea-level rise, salt-water intrusion, coastal subsidence and other potential contributing factors. It will take months for investigators and structural engineers to determine the root causes, but here are some answers to commonly asked questions — along with a few recommendations.

1. Should we worry about subsidence?

Probably not. While subsidence contributes to coastal flooding, it usually is only a problem on reclaimed land. In the past, some cities allowed reclamation projects in their coastal wetlands, backfilling areas with dredged material to create land where there was once only marsh. These areas can undergo compaction and surface lowering over time (subsidence), eventually contributing to flood susceptibility. The original dredging also destroyed sensitive coastal habitats including fringing mangroves, important habitat for many aquatic species and good protection against storm surge.

However, the integrity of high-rise structures shouldn't be affected, since they are usually anchored on deep foundations designed to withstand the load of the building. The weak reclaimed material only makes up the upper few feet, while the building foundations typically extend much deeper.

The great majority of Florida's coast is quite stable, but the possible role of subsidence (in particular, differential subsidence, which can lead to tilting and stress build-up) is something investigators will look into.

2. Is sea-level rise a problem?

In the long run, sea-level rise is something all Florida residents should worry about, but it's not likely to be a major factor in this tragedy. Since the Champlain Towers building was constructed in the early 1980s, global average sea level has risen by about 4.5 inches. Locally, this value could be higher due to changing ocean currents but is still not significant compared to the vertical dimensions of the foundation, which are normally designed for saltwater conditions. While it might be appealing to point the finger at sea-level rise, it is likely not the cause of this sudden collapse. But there are some longer-term issues.

3. What about saltwater intrusion?

Similar answer here. Saltwater intrusion refers to the tendency of saltwater to replace fresh ground water in coastal aquifers as sea level rises, possibly exacerbated by excessive ground water pumping, but again it is unlikely to be the major cause of this tragedy. In the long run, it's something we should worry about: It accelerates corrosion of underground infrastructure such as water works, and of course affects our freshwater supply.

4. Is corrosion a factor?

This is certainly an area the structural engineers will be taking a look at. Long-time Florida residents who live near the ocean are well aware of the enhanced corrosion that comes with the territory, with humidity, salt air and the occasional tropical storm or hurricane contributing to the problem.

Whenever steel-reinforced concrete is used as a structural element, the steel reinforcement needs to be protected against oxidation (rusting), which can cause expansion and cracking of surrounding concrete, leading to further oxidation in a bad feedback cycle. Engineers work hard to minimize the process, but after many decades, corrosion barriers can break down. Regular inspection and preventive maintenance are key.

While sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion can exacerbate corrosion, steel reinforcing would need to be exposed to a wet, salty environment for a relatively long period of time before corrosion sets in, implying that regular inspection and maintenance can be effective. As investigators seek answers, they will surely be on the lookout for signs of corrosion.


5. Do regulations need to be tightened?

Several Florida counties already mandate inspection of high-rise or civic buildings after 40 years to insure structural, electrical and fire safety. As we learn more about the causes of this incident, state and local regulators will undoubtedly be taking a hard look to see if these regulations need to be tightened.

With the benefit of hindsight, 40 years is probably too long for properties in harsh marine climates. Condo owners should insist on structural inspections every 10 years followed by appropriate maintenance. Maintenance costs are like taxes — no one likes them, but we all need to pay them.

6. What about the long term?

While sea-level rise was probably not a significant factor in this tragedy, there are still lessons. Living on the coast carries rewards, risks and costs. As sea level rises, the cost of living in beautiful but dynamic environments like Florida’s coast will increase.

Death toll in Surfside condo collapse reaches 90

Eventually, some structures and activities will retreat from the coast because they are not economic. Maintenance and insurance costs will increasingly be factored into decisions about where people choose to live, work and invest.

Our hearts go out to the families who lost loved ones in the Surfside tragedy. We need to learn from it and make our built environment safer. While some of the environmental issues noted above are unique to Florida, the overarching issue of maintaining older buildings and other infrastructure is a national concern. A lot of our infrastructure was constructed in the post-war boom of the 1950s to 1970s including high-rise condos. As they approach or exceed their 50-year birthdays, it seems appropriate to consider the expected life spans of our infrastructure and begin the challenging job of maintenance or replacement.

Timothy H. Dixon is a professor in the School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, Tampa. He is the author of "Curbing Catastrophe," published by Cambridge University Press.

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

Lauren Boebert campaigns against all government benefits — and it may haunt the GOP in the 2022 midterms

Bob Brigham
July 10, 2021

Zoom question and answer appearance screenshot

Controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) excited the left on Saturday after a clip from her speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) provided fodder heading into the 2022 midterm elections.

While Republicans have largely avoided talking about policy while instead focusing on manufactured culture wars outrages, Boebert laid out her vision.

"We're here to tell government we don't want your benefits. We don't want your welfare," she said.

"Don't come knocking on my door with your Fauci ouchie," she said, probably referring to the effort to go door-to-door in with information about where to get a coronavirus vaccine.

"Republican congresswoman wants to end VA healthcare, VA disability payments and the GI Bill for America's veterans. Can't wait till the vets in her district find out!" he said.

Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson looked at how Democrats could exploit Boebert's speech for political gain.

"GOP wants to repeal the rescue plan and take back your $1,400 checks," Ferguson

"You leave us the hell alone," the GOP congresswoman said.

The idea of cutting Medicare and Social Security has often been called the "third rail" of American politics in reference to the electoral lethality of going after the popular programs.

Democrats were ecstatic, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez urged Boebert on.

"Tell 'em loud and proud girl! GOP will strip your unemployment protections and dismantle any semblance of a public safety net we have left!" Ocasio-Cortez posted to Twitter.

Occasional New York Daily News columnist Brandon Friedman noted how harshly cutting benefits would impact veterans

"Lauren Boebert's restaurant received a $233,305 PPP check and she receives a $174,000 taxpayer-funded salary," podcaster Brian Tyler Cohen wrote.

"This is one step removed from promising to get the government's hands off of Medicare," said The Washington Post's Helaine Olen.

Georgetown Prof. Don Moynihan noted a 2011 poll showing that 70% of Tea Partiers did not want to cut Medicare.

"One thing that has proven true again and again is that people actually like and want the government benefits that they get," he wrote.

Chef Andrew Zimmern said, "Dangerous, uninformed, naive, … someone should show the congressperson who in her district uses fed benefits of all kinds."

MSNBC's Mehdi Hasan questioned if Boebert's plan would work

Ocasio-Cortez knocks Boebert for call to end extra jobless benefits

Dominick Mastrangelo 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) ripped Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) for remarks regarding government unemployment benefits during a conservative gathering in Dallas over the weekend.

© Getty Images Ocasio-Cortez knocks Boebert for call to end extra jobless benefits

"We're here to tell government, we don't want your benefits, we don't want your welfare. Don't come knockin' on my door with your Fauci ouchie, you leave us the hell alone," Boebert said Saturday at CPAC, the annual gathering of conservative politicians, activists and organizers, referring to infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci and the Biden administration's COVID-19 vaccine push.

"Tell 'em loud and proud girl!" Ocasio-Cortez responded to Boebert in a tweet Saturday evening. "GOP will strip your unemployment protections and dismantle any semblance of a public safety net we have left! Then make working people pay way more for everything on low wages while Wall St gets a meal ticket!"

"Good ol conservative values baby!" the progressive lawmaker added.

Boebert, a conservative currently serving in her first term, was among a bevy of members of Congress loyal to former President Trump who spoke at CPAC over the weekend.

One day before, fellow Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn (N.C.) rallied the crowd by warning against President Biden's proposed "door-to-door" COVID-19 vaccine campaign, claiming the same methods could be used to "take" people's guns and Bibles.

"Think about the mechanisms they would have to build to be able to actually execute that massive of a thing," Cawthorn said. "And then think about what those mechanisms could be used for. They could then go door-to-door and take your guns. They could go door to door and take your Bibles."

Boebert made headlines earlier this year when she appeared to carry a gun on the streets of Capitol Hill in an advertisement.

Ocasio-Cortez has attacked Boebert and Cawthorn's fellow Republicans in the House for downplaying the dangers posed to members during the Jan. 6 insurrection by Trump supporters at the Capitol.

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China's 'wolf warrior diplomacy' has come to Wall Street
llopez@businessinsider.com (Linette Lopez) 

Chinese President and Chairman of the Communist Party Xi Jinping appears on a large screen as performers dance during a mass gala marking the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party on June 28, 2021 at the Olympic Bird's Nest stadium in Beijing, China. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

China's assertive, nationalistic behavior - known as "wolf warrior diplomacy" - has come to the financial markets.

This week Beijing punished a Chinese tech company that listed on the New York Stock exchange, and announced rules to govern all Chinese companies listed abroad.

Consider this part of the Chinese Communist Party tightening its grip on power at home, and closing its doors power from abroad.

This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.

It was only a matter of time before Beijing's heightened nationalism came to Wall Street.

This week, Chinese authorities punished Didi, a ride sharing company, for its June 30 public debut on the New York Stock Exchange. Shortly after the Didi crackdown, Beijing announced new measures that could restrict Chinese companies going public abroad.

What all this is telling us is that Beijing is no longer going to tolerate its tech stars making foreigners rich on foreign exchanges. And it is further evidence that China is closing its society and economy to the West.

Bring it all back home

In order to more freely list on foreign stock exchanges, Chinese companies create something called a "variable interest entity." In such an arrangement, a Chinese company creates another company in a tax haven like the Cayman Islands where foreigners can invest. The Chinese company then signs an agreement that gives control and profits to the Cayman entity, from which money is distributed to shareholders and the company back in China. For years, Beijing generally looked the other way when it came to VIEs.

Now, according to Bloomberg, Beijing's new regulations are designed to limit the ability of Chinese companies to set up these entities. The proposed rules would govern what data can and can't be shared abroad, target "illegal securities activities," and set up extra-national laws Chinese companies would have to follow regardless of where they are listed.

Didi shares are down around 20% since it's IPO, in part because Beijing announced these measures, and in part because it has become a target for authorities at home. On July 2, the Cyberspace Administration of China announced it was investigating Didi. Two days later China's app stores were ordered to stop allowing users to download Didi. The CAC claims that Didi was illegally collecting user data.

And perhaps that's true. But it's also likely that this is a signal that "wolf warrior" aggression - a kind of Chinese diplomacy named after a hyper-nationalistic film- has come to financial markets. Two other Chinese tech companies listed in the US - Kanzhun and Full Truck Alliance - also had their downloads halted by Chinese regulators. The almost 250 Chinese companies worth $2 trillion in market cap listed on major US exchanges should all be watching their backs.

China is closing

Video: China's 'wolf warrior diplomacy' raises risks of a military clash with foreign countries: Asia Society (CNBC)

There are two main reasons for this seemingly sudden crackdown - one is China's increasing antagonism with the West, and the other is the Chinese Communist Party's own desire for power and self-preservation. Together they amount to the reality that China is once again closing its doors to the world, reversing the opening that began in the 1970s.

As part of a larger crackdown on civil society, the Chinese Communist Party has been tightening its control over any sources of power that might challenge it at home. That includes tech billionaires like Alibaba founder Jack Ma, who has recently been publicly brought to heel by Beijing. And it includes tech companies, like Tencent and Pinduoduo, another e-commerce giant.

Targeting tech companies that list abroad also puts pressure on Chinese companies to consider an IPO to list in Shanghai or Hong Kong instead. It is no secret that China's encroachment into Hong Kong prompted an exodus of financial firms from the city. Making it the new landing place for Chinese tech companies to go public could help it maintain its status as a global financial center.

It is also no secret that the US and China are at risk of what some call "decoupling"- essentially breaking ties and creating a world with separate US or China-centric technologies and financial centers. In some ways, because the two powers have become so antagonistic, this is already happening. Domestically, Beijing has been investing in technological advancements with the hopes making the country a techno-superpower by 2025. Now it's calling its companies home.

What's doubly important is that none of the above is primarily about making China rich. It's all about hoarding power for the CCP. Under President Xi Jiinping that has become Beijing's motivation above all else, and we should all expect it to act accordingly - even when it means hurting its own domestic companies.

A chilling effect

Last year Congress passed the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which requires foreign companies listed on US stock exchanges to be audited by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board's. If they refuse for three years in a row they can be delisted. Last month, the Senate passed a law that would shorten the time frame to two years in a row.

The problem with this is that so far, Chinese regulators will have absolutely none of it.

This is a stare down. If Chinese companies listed here in the US do not comply they will be delisted. If they do comply Beijing could come down hard on these companies at home. In the meantime recriminations are flying. GOP Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida called the Didi IPO "reckless and irresponsible" weeks before Beijing clamped down on the company, arguing that Didi is a black box.

Rubio and Democratic Sen. Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania introduced a bill in May that would prohibit companies from going public on US exchanges if they do not comply with US regulators and submit to an audit from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.

All of this pressure from Beijing and Washington will, without a doubt, have a chilling effect on Chinese companies listing here in the United States. So yes, this is another form of decoupling - and it's coming from both sides of the Pacific.

1. Wolf Warrior - Wikipedia

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_Warrior
   • Overview
   • Production
   • Plot
   • Cast
   • Box office
   • Popular culture
   • External links

   The script went through 14 drafts over seven years. In order to portray more realistic combat scenes, the movie used five missiles (each at a value of one million yuan), more than 30,000 rounds of ammunition, and a variety of Chinese active military aircraft, including the Chengdu J-10, Harbin Z-9, and CAIC Z-10. In one large battle scene, 32 active tanks appeared in the same shot, including a Type 96 tank.
   In order to prepare for the film, with the support of Chinese PLA Nanjing Military Region, Wu Jing traine…

   Wikipedia · Text under CC-BY-SA license

KENNEY DEMANDS 3% ROLLBACK FROM NURSES HOW'S THAT WORKING OUT
Royal Alexandra, Lacombe hospitals temporarily close beds due to staffing shortages
Nicholas Frew 

© David Bajer/CBC The Royal Alexandra Hospital in Edmonton, seen here in this file image, has had to temporarily close six beds.

Temporary staffing shortages have forced two Alberta hospitals to close 17 hospital beds combined, Alberta Health Services says.

The Lacombe Hospital and Care Centre has closed 11 beds as a temporary measure and a "last resort," according to a health services statement, as vacancies for registered and licensed practical nurses have yet to be filled.

A "short-term staffing shortage" at the Royal Alexandra Hospital in Edmonton has caused it to temporarily close six beds in its emergency department, health services said.

The health authority is working to quickly resolve both situations and is making efforts to fill the vacancies, a spokesperson said.

The beds in Lacombe — 120 kilometres south of Edmonton — will be reopened once staffing levels are stabilized. In the meantime, patients at the hospital will continue receiving proper care and there is still capacity for admitting patients to the facility, AHS said.

There are 24 hospital beds left at the Lacombe hospital, 20 of which are currently occupied by patients. There is space for patients to receive care, including private space for palliative patients, and the emergency department remains open, health services said.

There are no other service disruptions at that site, AHS added.

At Royal Alexandra meanwhile, there remain 50 beds open and the emergency department is open and accepting patients as, health services said.

Patient flow for hospitals in the Edmonton Zone is managed by AHS. There are several other emergency departments in and around the city patients can attend too, AHS said.

Nursing shortages worsened by pandemic: union

The Alberta Union of Provincial Employees, which represents over 95,000 public sector workers, says it has heard from members throughout the province that memos sent out over the past couple of months warned of potential bed closures due to low staffing levels.

The 11 hospital beds in Lacombe are the most recent consequence of AHS not filling vacant positions, said Bonnie Gostola, a union vice-president.

"The community is going to suffer for it," she said, adding that the bed closures could force people to travel to other communities to seek care.

"It's going to push people out of their homes and out of their communities — out of their comfort."

© Gaetan Lamarre/CBC David Harrigan, director of labour relations of United Nurses of Alberta, says morale among the province's nurses is as low as it's ever been.

Nursing shortages throughout most parts of Alberta are creating a vicious cycle of sorts, says the director of labour relations of United Nurses of Alberta, which represents over 30,000 nurses.

People will accept nursing positions, but their workload becomes overwhelming because the facilities in which they work are understaffed, said David Harrigan. That leads to the employees either moving to a different facility, or leaving the industry entirely, Harrigan said.

The vacancy issue started several years ago, but the COVID-19 pandemic has compounded it and nurses are exhausted, said Gostola. But there is also a fear that once the pandemic is over, their jobs or salaries will be cut so the province can save money as it tries to recover financially.

"They're just fed up. They're done," she said.

There is a high level of anger and disillusionment among nurses toward provincial officials and morale is as low as it's ever been, said Harrigan.

Alberta Health Services and the provincial government have to decide whether they want to fix the vacancy problem or provoke a fight with nurses, who were labelled as heroes throughout most of the past 16 months, said Harrigan.

CRIMINAL CRYPTO CAPITALI$M
Take a look inside this underground crypto mining farm in Ukraine with its 3,800 PlayStations and 5,000 computers

kshalvey@insider.com (Kevin Shalvey)

© Security Service of Ukraine Around 5,000 computers were used in the mine, Ukraine officials said. Security Service of Ukraine

Ukraine police last week seized around 9,000 games consoles and computers in an illegal crypto mine.

The mine was stealing as much as $259,300 in electricity each month, investigators said.

Police said it was the largest underground crypto mine to have been discovered in Ukraine.

A huge underground cryptocurrency mining operation has been busted by Ukraine police for allegedly stealing electricity from the grid.

Police said they'd seized 5,000 computers and 3,800 games consoles that were being used in the illegal mine, the largest discovered in the country.

The mine, in the city of Vinnytsia, near Kyiv, stole as much as $259,300 in electricity each month, the Security Service of Ukraine said. To conceal the theft, the operators of the mine used electricity meters that did not reflect their actual energy consumption, officials said.

"Such illegal activity could lead to power surges and left people without electricity," the security service said.

Police said that criminal proceedings had begun over the theft of water, electricity, and thermal energy. The mine was run by residents of Kyiv and Vinnytsia, a city about three hours outside the capital, police said.

© Security Service of Ukraine Gaming consoles in the crypto mine in a photo released by officials. Security Service of Ukraine

Photos released by state investigators show a cavernous room filled wall-to-wall with metal racks of neatly lined-up computers and Sony Playstation consoles.

Along with the computers and consoles, officials said they also seized more than 500 graphic cards, 50 processors, and documentation on the site's electricity consumption. They also took notebooks, phones, and flash drives, according to the press statement.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Transport minister orders CN, CP to take new wildfire prevention measures

OTTAWA — Federal Transport Minister Omar Alghabra ordered Canada's two major railroad operators to step up their fire prevention efforts as of Sunday as wildfires continue to scorch British Columbia.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

The Canadian National and Canadian Pacific railways must ensure a 60-minute response time to any fires detected along rail lines running through Lytton, B.C., with the goal of extinguishing or controlling the blaze and asking the local fire service for help if necessary, Alghabra said in a release.

"Unprecedented weather conditions in British Columbia continue to pose a serious threat to public safety and railway operations," the statement reads. "The government of Canada remains committed to supporting those affected by the devastating wildfires in British Columbia and will not hesitate to take any safety actions that are necessary to mitigate these risks to public safety and the integrity of railway tracks and infrastructure."

The ministerial order comes after the Transportation Safety Board launched an investigation as a result of new information on the suspected source of a devastating wildfire that raced through Lytton on June 30.

The safety board said Friday the information came by way of probes by the RCMP and BC Wildfire Service into the cause of a blaze that destroyed much of the village and killed two people, though no cause has been disclosed.

It is not yet known which rail line is linked to the train in question, and neither Canadian National nor Canadian Pacific has filed any occurrence reports related to the Lytton fire, the board said.

CN has said its trains were not linked to the fire, and CP resumed its service through Lytton on Monday.

More than 200 wildfires are burning in B.C. as a recent heat wave and parched conditions combined to raise the fire risk in many parts of the province to high or extreme.

Lightning also continued to challenge wildfire crews in the province in the past few days.

The new order, in effect until Oct. 31, calls for at least 10 fire detection patrols every 24 hours on stretches of track that run through Lytton. It also makes conductors responsible for spotting and reporting fires on those lines and requires removal of combustible materials following "vegetation control measures."

CN and CP must also consult with First Nations governing bodies along the two rail lines to work Indigenous knowledge of the region into their fire hazard reduction and fire preparedness plans.

Alghabra had ordered all train traffic through Lytton to halt on Thursday and Friday while residents were on escorted bus tours through the village to take stock of the damage.

Sunday's order requires slower train speeds when the fire danger level for the area is "extreme" anywhere across the country. No locomotive can pass through one of those areas unless it has been inspected in the past 15 days to ensure its exhaust passages are clear of combustible material.

CN and CP must also implement an "interim extreme weather risk fire mitigation plan" within 14 days and send it on to municipal and Indigenous governments, the order states.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 11, 2021.

Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press

OPPS

Haiti suspects say they meant to arrest, not kill president -report

By Andre Paultre and Sarah Marsh

© Reuters/STRINGER Gunmen assassinate Haitian president at his home, in Port-au-Prince

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - A group of Colombians and Haitian Americans suspected of assassinating Haitian President Jovenel Moise told investigators they were there to arrest him, not kill him, the Miami Herald and a person familiar with the matter said on Sunday

.

© Reuters/STRINGER Gunmen assassinate Haitian president at his home, in Port-au-Prince

Moise was shot dead early on Wednesday at his Port-au-Prince home by what Haitian authorities say was a unit of assassins made up of 26 Colombians and two Haitian Americans, plunging the troubled Caribbean nation into deeper political turmoil.

© Reuters/RICARDO ARDUENGO A woman walks on a sidewalk following the assassination of President Jovenel Moise

The murder and uncertainty about who hatched the plot is the latest in a succession of blows to hit the struggling country.

The United States has rebuffed Haiti's request for troops and the United Nations would need Security Council authorization to send armed forces.

Citing people who had spoken to some of the 19 suspects detained so far, the Miami Herald said they said their mission was to arrest Moise and take him to the presidential palace.

A source close to the investigation said the two Haitian Americans, James Solages and Joseph Vincent, told investigators they were translators for the Colombian commando unit that had an arrest warrant. But when they arrived, they found him dead.

© Reuters/RICARDO ARDUENGO This aerial view shows people buying goods in a street market following the assassination of President Jovenel Moise

Haitian police did not reply to a request for comment.

The news follows reports that some of the Colombians had said they had gone to work as security personnel on Haiti, including for Moise himself.

Photos and X-ray images posted on social media at the weekend said to be from Moise's autopsy showed his body riddled with bullet holes, a fractured skull and other broken bones, underscoring the brutal nature of the attack.

© Reuters/RICARDO ARDUENGO A gasoline street vendor pours gasoline from a bucket into used soft drink bottles following the assassination of President Jovenel Moise, in Port-au-Prince

Reuters could not independently confirm their authenticity.

Via social media, Haitians in parts of the capital Port-au-Prince were planning protests this week against the interim prime minister and acting head of state Claude Joseph.

Joseph's right to lead the country has been challenged by other senior politicians, threatening to exacerbate the turmoil engulfing the poorest country in the Americas.

Meanwhile, one of Haiti's top gang leaders, Jimmy Cherizier, a former cop known as Barbecue, said on Saturday his men would take to the streets to protest the assassination.

Cherizier, boss of the so-called G9 federation of nine gangs, said police and opposition politicians had conspired with the "stinking bourgeoisie" to "sacrifice" Moise.

Several rounds of gunfire rang out overnight in the capital, which has suffered a surge in gang violence in recent months, displacing thousands and hampering economic activity.

(Reporting by Andre Paultre in Port-Au-Prince and Sarah Marsh in Havana; Writing by Anthony Esposito; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

 Star light, star bright...as explained by math

KING ABDULLAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (KAUST)

Research News

 

IMAGE: A NEWLY DEVELOPED METHOD MATHEMATICALLY DESCRIBES PERIODIC CHANGES IN THE BRIGHTNESS OF STARS. THE MODEL CAN ALSO BE APPLIED TO SIMILAR VARIABLE PHENOMENA SUCH AS CLIMATOLOGY AND SOLAR IRRADIANCE. view more 

CREDIT: © 2021 MORGAN BENNETT SMITH

Not all stars shine brightly all the time. Some have a brightness that changes rhythmically due to cyclical phenomena like passing planets or the tug of other stars. Others show a slow change in this periodicity over time that can be difficult to discern or capture mathematically. KAUST's Soumya Das and Marc Genton have now developed a method to bring this evolving periodicity within the framework of mathematically "cyclostationary" processes.

"It can be difficult to explain the variations of the brightness of variable stars unless they follow a regular pattern over time," says Das. "In this study we created methods that can explain the evolution of the brightness of a variable star, even if it departs from strict periodicity or constant amplitude."

Classic cyclostationary processes have an easily definable variation over time, like the sweep of a lighthouse beam or the annual variation in solar irradiance at a given location. Here, "stationary" refers to the constant nature of the periodicity over time and describes highly predictable processes like a rotating shaft or a lighthouse beam. However, when the period or amplitude changes slowly over many cycles, the mathematics for cyclostationary processes fails.

"We call such a process an evolving period and amplitude cyclostationary, or EPACS, process," says Das. "Since EPACS processes are more flexible than cyclostationary processes, they can be used to model a wide variety of real-life scenarios."

Das and Genton modeled the nonstationary period and amplitude by defining them as functions that vary over time. In doing this, they expanded the definition of a cyclostationary process to better describe the relationship among variables, such as the brightness and periodic cycle for a variable star. They then used an iterative approach to refine key parameters in order to fit the model to the observed process.

"We applied our method to model the light emitted from the variable star R Hydrae, which exhibited a slowing of its period from 420 to 380 days between 1900 and 1950," says Das. "Our approach showed that R Hydrae has an evolving period and amplitude correlation structure that was not captured in previous work."

Importantly, because this approach links EPACS processes back to classical cyclostationary theory, then fitting an EPACS process makes it possible to use existing methods for cyclostationary processes.

"Our method can also be applied to similar phenomena other than variable stars, such as climatology and environmetrics, and particularly for solar irradiance, which could be useful for predicting energy harvesting in Saudi Arabia," Das says.

POLLUTERS NON PAYES

Over 25 years, world's wealthiest 5 percent behind over one-third of global emissions growth: study

Brett Wilkins, Common Dreams

www.rawstory.com

As world leaders prepare for this November's United Nations Climate Conference in Scotland, a new report from the Cambridge Sustainability Commission reveals that the world's wealthiest 5% were responsible for well over a third of all global emissions growth between 1990 and 2015.

"Rich people who fly a lot may think they can offset their emissions by tree-planting schemes or projects to capture carbon from the air. But these schemes are highly contentious and they're not proven over time."
—Peter Newell,
Sussex University

The report (pdf), entitled Changing Our Ways: Behavior Change and the Climate Crisis, found that nearly half the growth in absolute global emissions were cause by the world's richest 10%, with the most affluent 5% alone contributing 37%.

"In the year when the U.K. hosts COP26, and while the government continues to reward some of Britain's biggest polluters through tax credits, the commission report shows why this is precisely the wrong way to meet the U.K.'s climate targets," the report's introduction states.

The authors of the report urge United Kingdom policymakers to focus on this so-called "polluter elite" in an effort to persuade wealthy people to adopt more sustainable behavior, while providing "affordable, available low-carbon alternatives to poorer households."

The report found that the "polluter elite" must make "dramatic" lifestyle changes in order to meet the U.K.'s goal—based on the Paris climate agreement's preferential objective—of limiting global heating to 1.5°C, compared with pre-industrial levels.

In addition to highlighting previous recommendations—including reducing meat consumption, reducing food waste, and switching to electric vehicles and solar power—the report recommends that policymakers take the following steps:

Implement frequent flyer levies;

Enact bans on selling and promoting SUVs and other high polluting vehicles;

Reverse the U.K.'s recent move to cut green grants for homes and electric cars; and

Build just transitions by supporting electric public transport and community energy schemes.

"We have got to cut over-consumption and the best place to start is over-consumption among the polluting elites who contribute by far more than their share of carbon emissions," Peter Newell, a Sussex University professor and lead author of the report, told the BBC.

"These are people who fly most, drive the biggest cars most, and live in the biggest homes which they can easily afford to heat, so they tend not to worry if they're well insulated or not," said Newell. "They're also the sort of people who could really afford good insulation and solar panels if they wanted to."

Newell said that wealthy people "simply must fly less and drive less. Even if they own an electric SUV, that's still a drain on the energy system and all the emissions created making the vehicle in the first place."

"Promisingly, we have brought about positive change before, and there are at least some positive signs that there is an appetite to do what is necessary to live differently but well on the planet we call home."
—Cambridge Sustainability Commission

"Rich people who fly a lot may think they can offset their emissions by tree-planting schemes or projects to capture carbon from the air," Newell added. "But these schemes are highly contentious and they're not proven over time."

The report concludes that "we are all on a journey and the final destination is as yet unclear. There are many contradictory road maps about where we might want to get to and how, based on different theories of value and premised on diverse values."

"Promisingly, we have brought about positive change before, and there are at least some positive signs that there is an appetite to do what is necessary to live differently but well on the planet we call home," it states.

The new report follows a September 2020 Oxfam International study that revealed the wealthiest 1% of the world's population is responsible for emitting more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the poorest 50% of humanity combined.

Here's how student debt could be redefined by the nation's first debtors' union. Democracy might just get rescued in the process.

asheffey@businessinsider.com (Ayelet Sheffey) 

© Jacquelyn Martin/AP Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Astra Taylor, founder of the Debt Collective, told Insider student debt is threatening democracy.

She said that after the Civil War, debt was used to wield power over marginalized communities.

Biden is "playing with fire" not following through on his promise to cancel student debt, she said.

Debt is all-American, Astra Taylor says. And she doesn't mean that in a good way.

Taylor, who founded the Debt Collective, which calls for the cancellation of all forms of debt, namechecks Thomas Jefferson as a founding father of how we understand debt today.

In the early 1880s, he wrote in a letter that debt should be used as a tool to control Indigenous people "because we observe that when these debts get beyond what the individuals can pay, they become willing to lop them off by a cession of lands." This idea has "carried over through the 20th century," Taylor said, and she's made it her mission to end in the 21st. Our relationship with debt can be all-American in a different - and better - way, she said in an interview with Insider.

Her organization is the country's first membership-based union for debtors and allies, and she said it's a necessary step for true democracy to finally emerge in the US. She's offering her help to President Joe Biden, even drafting an executive order she wants President Joe Biden to sign to cancel student debt for all borrowers.

Even if he can cancel all student debt by simply signing a piece of paper, Taylor said it wouldn't be enough - all debt in the country has to be erased so borrowers are no longer controlled by money they will never be able to pay off

.

© Astra Taylor Founder of the Debt Collective, Astra Taylor. Astra Taylor

"I think it's really important to understand that relationships of credit and debt are always political," Taylor said. "It's a power relationship masquerading as a relationship of equality," adding that it's time for Americans to move beyond that dynamic.

Many Americans who hold student debt fear they will never be able to pay it off before dying, as Insider previously reported, and given that multiple left-leaning studies have shown that debt cancellation would stimulate the economy by freeing up money for borrowers to spend elsewhere, Taylor said there's no reason why Biden should not act on the opportunity.


The roots of debt and democracy

As Taylor explained in an opinion piece for The New York Times last week, the Reconstruction era that followed the Civil War had another name among formerly enslaved people: the Jubilee. But although slavery was abolished, debt quickly took its place in the form of "sharecropping," which served as a tool to control marginalized communities and allow white landlords "generations of exploitable labor."

This kind of coercion through debt mutated but never went away, Taylor said, citing predatory lending and redlining, or the practice of housing discrimination based on race which the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) found evidence of this year. Lawmakers like Sen. Elizabeth Warren argue that student-loan servicers are currently taking advantage of borrowers in a similar way.

Taylor said the economic recovery Biden touts does not reflect the disproportionate debt burden on minority communities. For example, upon graduation, Black student debt borrowers typically owe 50% more than white borrowers. Four years later, Black borrowers owe 100% more, according to 36 civil rights organizations.

The Debt Collective's work to ensure debtor's remain politically independent will help eliminate the disproportionate burden of debt, and, as Taylor put it, "revive the Jubilee." Taylor's ideas are intersecting more and more with the mainstream. For example, this week Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast interviewed "independent renegade economist" Steve Keen, who called for a "modern Jubilee."
Biden is 'playing with fire' on debt cancellation

During his campaign, Biden promised to immediately cancel $10,000 in student debt for all borrowers, but he has not yet fulfilled that promise and has not commented on if, or when, he will follow through. Taylor told Insider that there are "tremendous risks" accompanied with not delivering on debt cancellation.Here's how student debt could be redefined by the nation's first debtors' union. Democracy might just get rescued in the process.

Biden is 'playing with fire' on debt cancellation

During his campaign, Biden promised to immediately cancel $10,000 in student debt for all borrowers, but he has not yet fulfilled that promise and has not commented on if, or when, he will follow through. Taylor told Insider that there are "tremendous risks" accompanied with not delivering on debt cancellation.

"They're playing with fire," Taylor said. "To break this promise they fully have the ability legally to do is just so dangerous."

Taylor argues that instead of investing in debt collection, Biden should invest in free education. Plus, she says, eliminating debt would allow people to invest in other things, like housing.

The Education Department has so far cancelled some debt for certain groups of people, but Americans continue to hold $1.7 billion in student debt.

Biden promised he would cancel student debt, Taylor said. "Why would you risk all of the disappointment and bad faith that will result from not meeting the moment?"

SEE

Debt: The First 5000 Years

by David Graeber

Debt: The First 5000 Years : David Graeber : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Publication date 2011

Topics Anthropology, Capitalism, Anarchism, Anarchy, History, Economics, Sociology, Debt, Money

Language English

Debt: The First 5,000 Years is a book by anthropologist David Graeber, published in 2011. It explores the historical relationship of debt with social institutions such as barter, marriage, friendship, slavery, law, religion, war and government; in short, much of the fabric of human life in society. It draws on the history and anthropology of a number of civilizations, large and small, from the first known records of debt from Sumer, in 3500 BC until the present.