Tuesday, December 07, 2021

Montana Gov. Gianforte, AG Knudsen try to stop American Prairie’s bison through political pressure

Darrell Ehrlick
Great Falls Tribune
Mon, December 6, 2021, 

Bison calves being moved at the American Prairie Reserve.

One of the most common observations made by early European explorers in Montana was the immense buffalo herds and the Native people who hunted and used the huge animals.

A 2016 article in the Intermountain Journal of Sciences by James A. Bailey chronicles the observations.

The Crows were reported to kill “upwards of a thousand” bison in a day in 1824; meanwhile, George Catlin recorded 500 Shoshone tribal members slaughtered more than 1,400 in one day in 1832.

Yet as tribes and Montana begin to see more bison repopulate a state where they were once taken by the hundreds, two of the state’s top officials, along with heads of several key state agencies, want to put a stop to a private nonprofit organization’s attempt at placing small bison herds on lands where the animals once roamed.

American Prairie, formerly known as “American Prairie Reserve,” has purchased thousands of acres throughout Montana and has had grazing leases that have been tied to the lands for years. That’s why when it came to renewing those leases through the federal government’s Bureau of Land Management, the organization wasn’t expecting the furor that came from state leaders.

When the BLM’s own assessment determined that no significant harm would come from the grazing or leases, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, along with the leaders from the state’s department of agriculture and the Wildlife, Fish and Parks as well as Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen, objected, urging the federal leaders to reconsider and hold more public meetings.

When the BLM, which had used a standard public comment period and public meeting, rebuffed the state leaders’ requests, Knudsen held his own public comment meeting and rejected an offer from American Prairie to meet, leading to an ongoing cold war in which the same leaders criticizing the nonprofit also refused to engage in conversation, leaving little more than an exchange of inflammatory letters and accusations that bison conservation will lead to the death of cattle ranching in central and northern Montana.

Gianforte and Knudsen were both contacted for the story, and neither office responded to requests for interviews.

The case of science vs. politics


When the BLM released its findings of no negative impacts for the grazing leases, that set into motion a concerted effort by state leaders to get the federal government to reconsider. At the heart of the argument is a disputed theory that federal grazing law did not allow for bison, rather only animals raised for commercial ranching, like cattle and sheep. Bison have also been raised in Montana for commercial production for decades.

Meanwhile, outside the legal process, ranchers opposed to American Prairie worry about escaped bison or the spread of disease. Yet scientists who study bison say that question — a recurring one in debates in Montana — has been largely settled in favor of the two animal species successfully living together without harming each other.

While the BLM and the federal government are standing by their public comment and input, as well as their findings regarding the grazing leases, the state may not be able to stop the federal permits, but it could make it more difficult to manage them.

Federal public lands have a checkerboard pattern of state lands intermixed among them. As a matter of law, the two are separate, but in practice, state governments often defer to the federal Bureau of Land Management to help manage lands that it technically owns on behalf of the state, but is surrounded — often like an island — in a sea of federal public land. That makes sense because animals don’t just graze according to land boundaries without fencing.

Yet separate management is one of the options the state of Montana said it would consider if the BLM doesn’t take more input. Technically, Montana could decide to wall off or separate its public grazing lands, but that would take thousands of dollars in fencing, something that, even with money from grazing leases, would likely not even pay for itself in the first 20-year lease. Moreover, the state would then have to decide how to manage its portion of the land, including access for any other leaseholders.

This is the first time some of the leases have come up with American Prairie as the leaseholder tied to the land.

Bovine vs. bison

While the conversation about bison and American Prairie has largely boiled down to bison conservation versus cattle ranching, the science on that is no longer in doubt.

Sam Fuhlendorf is the regents professor and Groendyke chair in wildlife conservation at Oklahoma State University. He works around the country with both conservation and ranching efforts, studying both animals.

He admits it’s hard to compare them because they’re very similar. They both forage and utilize similar food. One of the biggest differences, though, is “thermal stressors.” Cattle become stressed in high heat and chilly temperatures.

“Bison show extreme thermal tolerance,” Fuhlendorf said.

That means the blasting summer sun of the Montana prairie isn’t as big of a threat for bison, and neither is the prolonged cold of an intense winter.

Both can co-exist. Both can exist on the same land.

“They’re both big, bulk roughage eaters,” Fuhlendorf said.

As for managing bison versus managing cattle, Fuhlendorf, whose research is in range management, said it’s all a matter of managing. Bison range managers can be just as detrimental as cattle range operators. He said sometimes when a bison wallows in dust, people tend to view it as a spiritual experience, but when a bovine cow does it, it’s dirty. He said there’s nothing inherently bad or good about either, just small differences that depend on the management.

“Really, when we’re talking management, we’re talking about the middle,” Fuhlendorf said. “We want to make sure nothing is too heavily grazed and nothing is too little.”

He said the one difference in management is that bison, because they haven’t been domesticated like cattle, can get a reputation of being harder to handle.

“There’s nothing magically good or evil about bison, though,” Fuhlendorf said. “The most important decision is how many animals will be out there. For bison – if a bison can get out, it will. But the key is not making them want to get out of wherever they are.”

As for the politics of bison in Montana, that’s something that not even studying the animals for decades has given him a clear handle on. A sign that’s popped up throughout central and northern Montana that says, “Save the Cowboy, Stop APR,” is one indicator of the tensions.

“Most of it is a red herring,” Fuhlendorf said. “At Wichita Mountain (cattle and bison) are in the same pasture all the time and none of the ranchers are troubled by the connection. Ranchers in quite a few other states just don’t have a problem.

“Ranchers, by nature, are conservative. But even if they wouldn’t do something with their property, they understand the rights of others because of private property.”
Follow the law

One thing that both sides agree on: the other side is not following the law.

In Gianforte’s letter to the federal agency, he said the BLM lacks the authority to issue a grazing permit for “domestic indigenous animals.” The governor also argues that using the grazing permits for “non-production-oriented, wildlife management” would rob other ranchers of economic opportunities.

Finally, Gianforte criticizes the BLM in a September letter for holding a public hearing session via remote meeting “in the middle of a summer afternoon when the vast majority of those affected were trying to wrest their livelihoods from a devastating drought.”

Pete Geddes, American Prairie’s vice president, told the Daily Montanan he’s still surprised by the amount of public rebuke they’ve gotten. That includes a public campaign complete with yard signs and banners that advocates ending APR. And Geddes says American Prairie used a conservative playbook by buying their own private property for grazing bison. And when it comes to Montana, he is still flummoxed by the opposition from Lewistown legislator Dan Bartels who was unsuccessful in an attempt to pass legislation that would have prohibited nonprofits from acquiring land — an idea that riled even some conservative ranchers in the area.

“We’re building a National Discovery Center in downtown Lewistown and creating jobs and tourism there. I would think he’d be interested in employees and in private land,” Geddes said.

Gianforte’s Department of Natural Resources and Conservation also objected during the federal open commenting period, noting that it has roughly 5,000 acres of the 155,000 acres of BLM and private land in question. Montana’s Fish, Wildlife and Parks division added a three-page letter of concerns, including concerns about transmitting disease and whether cattle and bison can co-exist. Two additional letters were submitted by the state, including the Department of Livestock and the Department of Agriculture, which largely restate the same objections, but bring the total number of pages opposing American Prairie to more than 30.

In a letter, AG Knudsen accuses the BLM of creating a new term not found in the Taylor Grazing Act.

“Now they’ve conjured a new classification — indigenous livestock — and insist that bison fit inside,” Knudsen said. “The law requires more than clever linguistic re-jiggering. APR doubtlessly paid a lot for the legal brain that suggested, ‘We only need to stop calling bison non-livestock and call them indigenous livestock.’”

He also accused the BLM of not adequately calculating the cost of allowing American Prairie bison to graze on federal and state lands, saying its analysis failed to recognize the negative impacts to ranchers and farmers.

“APR’s mission is to displace Northeastern Montana’s livestock industry and replace it with a large outdoor zoo,” Knudsen said. “APR’s my-way-or-the-highway approach is nothing more than a reflexive threat to subject other permits to burdensome administrative protests and is, to be polite, unneighborly. No wonder APR has generated intense local opposition to its efforts.”

But being neighborly, American Prairie contends, is a two-way street. They confirmed that they’ve reached out to both Gianforte and Knudsen, inviting them to see their operations, to ask questions and to communicate. They said that neither has ever visited or accepted an invitation.

“The governor is very interested in public access and economic development and we are, too,” Geddes said. “In fact, we’d like to believe we’re partners. We’ve created high-paying jobs. We’ve opened more area for engaging in Montana’s outdoors. He has a standing invitation to visit.”

The Daily Montanan sent several requests in the past month to talk to both the governor and the attorney general about their actions involving American Prairie and the battle overgrazing. Neither office responded.

Geddes points out that American Prairie is so concerned about its neighbors that when it first set up operations, it had good-neighbor agreements with landowners surrounding it, saying that if APR didn’t manage to recapture an escaped animal off its property within 24 hours, the other property owner could shoot it. Never once has that happened, he said, because they try to respond immediately and have on-site managers.

He said it’s important to know that landowners who border American Prairie’s borders were not among those chiefly concerned with the permit.

“Once we’re people in the neighborhood, we’re not such a concern,” Geddes said. “We’re not going anywhere. We’re a Montana-led, Montana-based operation, and our intent is to be a really good neighbor.”

When Knudsen held a forum in Malta, according to the Glasgow Courier, he admitted that the BLM fulfilled its obligation for public comment, but claimed it was dominated by out-of-state interests. Knudsen also told audience members he was surprised that no one from APR showed up to the meeting he called.

However, officials at APR said they were not invited to the meeting and pointed out that five days before the meeting, the nonprofit organization sent a four-page letter outlining their position, including adding jobs and increasing public access. The letter offers to meet to discuss issues and also pointed out, “The Bureau of Land Management can issue grazing permits or leases and modify existing permits to substitute many different types of livestock for cattle, including bison. It has done this for several decades across the West.”

American Prairie also commissioned John D. Leshy and Justin Pidot to examine the legal issue for the organization and to examine the legal concerns raised by the state.

Leshy served as Solicitor General of the Department of the Interior from 1993-2001 and was a former law professor at the University of California. As cliché as it may sound, he literally wrote the book on public land law, “Federal Public Land and Resources Law,” which has been through seven editions.

Leshy and Pidot, a law professor at the University of Arizona, concluded that current laws do not define the animals that may or may not qualify for grazing permits, including cattle or bison and that the mixed-use nature of the BLM means that some land should be used for grazing, but it doesn’t make the determination of what kind of grazing, leaving it to department officials.

It points out that Montana and Knudsen have used old or overturned court decisions.

“Congress has made the Secretary (of the Interior) the landlord of the public range and basically made the grant of grazing privileges discretionary,” the analysis said. “(The) definition of ‘multiple use’ explicitly proves that a ‘range’ or livestock grazing is just one of many uses and values to be served by the public lands, along with such things as ‘wildlife’ and ‘natural scenic, scientific and historical values.’”

Leshy and Pidot fire back that even Montana law defines “livestock” to include bison.

They point out that in the BLM’s final environmental impact statement, which was revised in 2016, that “bison in private ownership are considered livestock.”

“The primary test in making this distinction is whether or not the animal qualifies as an applicant under the requirements of the grazing regulations,” the two legal scholars wrote. “The grazing regulations define qualified applicants and apply equally to all qualified applicants, regardless of class of livestock.”

The Daily Montanan is a nonprofit news outlet based out of Helena covering statewide policy and politics. It is an affiliate of States Newsroom, a national 501(c)(3) nonprofit supported by grants and a coalition of donors and readers.

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This article originally appeared on Great Falls Tribune: Gov. Gianforte, AG Knudsen try to stop American Prairie’s bison

GOOD NEWS
Holtec says it won't dump radioactive water in Cape Cod Bay in 2022


Doug Fraser, Cape Cod Times
Tue, December 7, 2021

PLYMOUTH — The company in charge of decommissioning Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station announced Monday that it would not discharge radioactive water into Cape Cod Bay in 2022.

"We wanted to share that in the near term the decision at Pilgrim has been made that the processed water will remain on site, safely stored, and that we will not discharge any processed water in 2022 while this evaluation (of alternative disposal options) is undertaken," according to an emailed statement from Patrick O'Brien, a senior manager for government affairs and communications for Holtec Decommissioning International.

The email said the company appreciated and understood the public's questions and concerns, and "remain committed to an open, transparent process on the decommissioning of Pilgrim Station focused on the health and safety of the public, the environment, and on-site personnel.”


The company decommissioning the closed Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station in Plymouth says it will not release radioactive water, which was used to cool components at the facility, into Cape Cod Bay next year.


The news that releasing as much as 1 million gallons of water used to cool radioactive rods and other components in the spent fuel pool and in other parts of the facility was being considered was announced at a Nov. 22 meeting of the Nuclear Decommissioning Citizens Advisory Panel.

On Monday, O'Brien reiterated that no decision had been reached on whether to evaporate, discharge or transport the water to another facility.
Radioactive water release plans

But that appeared to contradict an email to U.S. Rep. William Keating's staff last week from Nuclear Regulatory Commission Congressional Affairs Officer Carolyn Wolf that "Holtec has informed the NRC that it plans to discharge liquid effluents sometime in the first quarter of 2022."

At the advisory panel meeting the company said it would be evaluating options over the next six months to a year. Monday's press release committed to at least a year while that process was followed.

Holtec and NRC officials said in interviews that radioactivity and other contaminants like metals in the coolant water would be reduced through a filtering process to levels allowed under federal permits before being released, and environmental impacts and levels in the ocean would be monitored. The plant had released treated radioactive water periodically during the course of its operations, most recently in 2017, O'Brien said.

In an interview Monday, Keating said he was hopeful Holtec would honor the pledge not to release any water into Cape Cod Bay in 2022. But he was disappointed that Monday's press release didn't mention public and stakeholder engagement in making that decision, calling it an "obvious omission."

NRC and Holtec have said repeatedly there is no required public comment in making their decision.

"The NDCAP (advisory panel) is the public forum really for the decommissioning, I’m not sure if EPA/DEP/NRC will have anything else," said O'Brien in an email Monday.
More time to study impact on maritime industries

Keating hoped the year delay would allow the federal Environmental Protection Agency and the state agencies an opportunity to weigh in.

"It's really important we have this period to really look at this issue because once (the disposal option) is implemented, we can't undo it," Keating said.

in an interview Friday, Keating said any release of radioactive water from the plant would impact the region's maritime industries including aquaculture, fishing and recreation — potentially through bioaccumulation in the food chain but also by damaging the region's reputation as a source of seafood and recreational opportunities.

Keating advocated trucking the water to an off-site facility and O'Brien had identified an Idaho plant at the advisory panel meeting as one possible site.

Holtec is paying for the Pilgrim cleanup out of a $1.03 billion decommissioning trust fund that ratepayers paid into over time.

During a Dec. 1 Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works hearing on oversight of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, U.S. Sen. Edward Markey, D-Mass., was critical of the agency's handling of decommissioning and lack of public input.

Markey told NRC Chairman Christopher Hanson that his agency has abrogated its responsibility, leaving decisions largely to the private companies that do the work.

"The NRC has decided that the best way to shield itself from criticism is to take itself out of the process," Markey said. He said a new decommissioning rule relegates the agency only to acknowledging receipt of a plan from a private company looking to dismantle a plant.

"It (the NRC) would serve as a glorified filing cabinet. Ceding the job of regulator to the nuclear industry itself is not a win for safety, for communities or for the energy sector," said Markey, who was especially critical the diminished role of public comment.

"I would urge you to insure that there is full NRC and public participation (in vetting decommissioning plans) because the (nuclear power) industry ... has been known to cut corners and ultimately we cannot allow the public safety to be put in jeopardy at all," Markey said.


This article originally appeared on Cape Cod Times: Holtec says it won't dump radioactive water in Cape Cod Bay in 2022
Report says Russian hackers haven't eased spying efforts


 The Kremlin in Moscow, Sept. 29, 2017. The elite Russian state hackers behind last year's massive SolarWinds cyberespionage campaign hardly eased up this year, managing plenty of infiltrations of U.S. and allied government agencies and foreign policy think tanks with consummate craft and stealth, a leading cybersecurity firm reported Monday.
(AP Photo/Ivan Sekretarev, File)

ERIC TUCKER and FRANK BAJAK
Mon, December 6, 2021

WASHINGTON (AP) — The elite Russian state hackers behind last year's massive SolarWinds cyberespionage campaign hardly eased up this year, managing plenty of infiltrations of U.S. and allied government agencies and foreign policy think tanks with consummate craft and stealth, a leading cybersecurity firm reported.

Also Monday, Microsoft announced that it had disrupted the cyber-spying of a state-backed Chinese hacking group by seizing websites it used to gather intelligence from foreign ministries, think tanks and human rights organizations in the U.S. and 28 other countries, chiefly in Latin America and Europe.

Microsoft said a Virginia federal court had granted its request last Thursday to seize 42 web domains that the Chinese hacking group, which it calls Nickel but which is also known as APT15 and Vixen Panda, were using to access targets typically aligned with China's geopolitical interests. It said in a blog that “a key piece of the infrastructure the group has been relying on” in its latest wave of infiltrations was removed. The seized domains include “elperuanos.org,” “pandemicacre.com” and “cleanskycloud.com.”


The dual announcements, though unrelated, highlight the unrelenting drumbeat of digital spying by its top U.S. geopolitical rivals, whose cyber-intrusion skillset is matched only by that of the United States.

A year after it discovered the SolarWinds intrusions, Mandiant said the hackers associated with Russia's SVR foreign intelligence agency continue to steal data “relevant to Russian interests” with great effect using novel, stealthy techniques that it detailed in a mostly technical report aimed at helping security professionals stay alert. It was Mandiant, not the U.S. government, that disclosed SolarWinds.

While the number of government agencies and companies hacked by the SVR was smaller this year than last, when some 100 organizations were breached, assessing the damage is difficult, said Charles Carmakal, Mandiant's chief technical officer. Overall, the impact is quite serious. “The companies that are getting hacked, they are also losing information.”

“Not everybody is disclosing the incident(s) because they don’t always have to disclose it legally,” he said, complicating damage-assessment.

The Russian cyber spying unfolded, as always, mostly in the shadows as the U.S. government was consumed in 2021 by a separate, eminently “noisy” and headline-grabbling cyber threat — ransomware attacks launched not by nation-state hackers but rather criminal gangs. As it happens, those gangs are largely protected by the Kremlin.

The Mandiant findings follow an October report from Microsoft that the hackers, whose umbrella group it calls Nobelium, continue to infiltrate the government agencies, foreign policy think tanks and other organizations focused on Russian affairs through the cloud service companies and so-called managed services providers on which they increasingly rely. The Mandiant researchers said the Russian hackers “continue to innovate and identify new techniques and tradecraft” that lets them linger in victim networks, hinder detection and confuse attempts to attribute hacks to them.

Mandiant did not identify individual victims or describe what specific information may have been stolen but did say unspecified “diplomatic entities" that received malicious phishing emails were among the targets.

Often, the researchers say, the hackers' path of least resistance to their targets were cloud-computing services. From there, they used stolen credentials to infiltrate networks. The report describes how in one case they gained access to one victim's Microsoft 365 system through a stolen session token. And, the report says, the hackers routinely relied on advanced tradecraft to cover their tracks.

One clever technique discussed in the report illustrates the ongoing cat-and-mouse game that digital espionage entails. Hackers set up intrusion beachheads using IP addresses, a numeric designation that identifies its location on the internet, that were physically located near an account they are trying to breach — in the same address block, say, as the person's local internet provider. That makes it highly difficult for security software to detect a hacker using stolen credentials posing as someone trying to access their work account remotely.

Microsoft expressed no illusions that the website seizures it announced Monday would discourage the Chinese hackers, who it has been tracking since 2016. It said the takedowns were of infrastructure it has been tracking since 2019, much of it exploiting on-premises —- as opposed to cloud-based — Exchange Server and SharePoint systems. The company has used the legal takedown tactic in 24 lawsuits to date, Microsoft said, knocking out a total of 600 sites used by nation-state actors and 10,000 by cybercriminals.

The SolarWinds hack exploited vulnerabilities in the software supply-chain system and went undetected for most of 2020 despite compromises at a broad swath of federal agencies — including the Justice Department — and dozens of companies, primarily telecommunications and information technology providers and including Mandiant and Microsoft.

The hacking campaign is named SolarWinds after the U.S. software company whose product was exploited in the first-stage infection of that effort. The Biden administration imposed sanctions last April in response to the hack, including against six Russian companies that support the country's cyber efforts.

Microsoft seizes control of websites used by China-backed hackers



Carly Page
Mon, December 6, 2021

Microsoft has seized control of a number of websites that were being used by a Chinese government-backed hacking group to target organizations in 29 countries, including the U.S.

Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit (DCI) said on Monday that a federal court in Virginia had granted an order allowing the company to take control of the websites and redirect the traffic to Microsoft servers. These malicious websites were being used by a state-sponsored hacking group known as Nickel, or APT15, to gather intelligence from government agencies, think tanks and human rights organizations, according to the company.

Microsoft didn’t name Nickel’s targets, but said the group was targeting organizations in the U.S. and 28 other countries. It added that "there is often a correlation between Nickel’s targets and China’s geopolitical interests."

Microsoft, which has been tracking Nickel since 2016 and previously described it as one of the “most active” hacking groups targeting government agencies, said it observed “highly sophisticated” attacks that installed hard-to-detect malware that facilitates intrusion, surveillance and data theft. In some cases, Nickel’s attacks used compromised third-party virtual private network (VPN) suppliers and credentials obtained from spear-phishing campaigns, according to Microsoft, and in others, vulnerabilities in Microsoft’s own Exchange Server and SharePoint system were used to infiltrate companies. However, Microsoft noted that it has “not observed any new vulnerabilities in Microsoft products as part of these attacks."

“Obtaining control of the malicious websites and redirecting traffic from those sites to Microsoft’s secure servers will help us protect existing and future victims while learning more about Nickel’s activities,” wrote Tom Burt, Microsoft’s corporate vice president for customer security and trust. “Our disruption will not prevent Nickel from continuing other hacking activities, but we do believe we have removed a key piece of the infrastructure the group has been relying on for this latest wave of attacks.”

In addition to the U.S., Nickel also targeted organizations in Argentina, Barbados, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Mali, Mexico, Montenegro, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Kingdom and Venezuela.

Microsoft said its Digital Crimes Unit, through 24 lawsuits, had taken down more than 10,000 malicious websites used by cybercriminals and almost 600 used by nation-state actors. Earlier this year, the team took control of malicious web domains used in a large-scale cyberattack that targeted victims in 62 countries with spoofed email







GREEN BONDS ARE GREENWASHING
Newmont Sells First Sustainability-Linked Bonds From a Miner

Caleb Mutua
Mon, December 6, 2021


(Bloomberg) -- Newmont Corp., one of the world’s largest gold miners, sold $1 billion of bonds giving it a financial incentive to cut emissions and improve corporate governance, the first company in the energy-intensive industry to issue such securities.

The company’s 10-year bonds will pay investors a higher interest rate if it fails to cut emissions, or to sufficiently boost the percentage of women in its senior leadership positions by 2030, Newmont said in a filing. The securities priced on Monday and will yield 1.17 percentage point more than Treasuries, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.


The notes it is selling are a type of environmental, social, and governance security known as sustainability-linked bonds, sales of which have surged in recent months, reaching a record high for the year. Global sales of the bonds are around $105 billion so far this year, a record and up from just $10 billion the whole of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Unlike traditional sustainable notes that finance specific projects, sustainability-linked bonds allow companies to tap the ESG bond market to fund just about anything provided they pledge to meet certain social or environmental thresholds. That flexibility is attracting companies that don’t have specific green ventures to fund, including corporations in the largest carbon-emitting industries.

Denver-based Newmont aims to reduce direct emissions from operations and indirect emissions from purchased and imported electricity consumption, or scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions, by 32% by 2030 based on a 2018 baseline, according to Monday’s filing.

The company also aims to slash select indirect emissions from its value chain -- including from activities like waste generated in operations, business travel and employee commuting -- by 30% in the same period, according to the filing. These scope 3 targets are based on a 2019 baseline. The company also has goal of achieving a 50% representation of women in senior leadership positions by 2030.

The interest rate payable on the notes will be increased if the company fails to reach these targets. Proceeds from the sale can be used for purposes including buying back notes due in 2023, as well as for near-term spending needs, among other purposes.

The metals and mining sector produces about a quarter of the reported emissions of the world’s 12,000 largest companies. Extracting raw materials and then preparing them for delivery to other companies is energy intensive.
Exxon Mobil rolls out plan to cut emissions in Permian Basin

CATHY BUSSEWITZ and SUSAN MONTOYA BRYAN
Mon, December 6, 2021

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — Exxon Mobil says it has a plan for cutting greenhouse gas emissions from its operations in one of the most prolific oilfields in the United States, saying it hopes to achieve its net-zero goal for operations in the Permian Basin by 2030.

The company made the announcement Monday, saying the effort will target both its own operations as well as indirect emissions associated with the electricity it buys to power well sites and other infrastructure in the basin, which spans parts of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas.

Although limited, Exxon’s announcement is significant because it’s the first tangible commitment the company has made to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, compared to major European oil and gas companies which set more tangible targets, said Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy.

“In the past, they were somewhat criticized for the lack of any sort of tangible commitment,” Abramov said.

The reach of Exxon’s commitment is narrow in several ways. For one, the goal is limited to its operations in a basin that represents about 12-13% of its total oil and gas production this year, Abramov said.

Exxon's commitment does not addresses what are called “Scope 3” emissions, the largest category, which include the emissions produced when customers burn its oil or gas. The only way Exxon could reduce those emissions would be to cut back on how much oil and gas the company produces.


However, rather than reducing, Exxon’s production in the Permian Basin has been growing.

Exxon's announcement dovetails with what is required of oil and gas companies operating in New Mexico under rules adopted by state regulators earlier this year. That includes better detection of methane emissions, upgrading equipment and eliminating routine flaring, which is the practice of burning off unwanted natural gas into atmosphere.



Touted by state officials as some of the strongest gas capture requirements in the nation, New Mexico’s rules set a target of capturing 98% of all natural gas waste by the end of 2026.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency also is poised to tighten federal methane regulations for the industry, and the New Mexico Environment Department is crafting its own rules aimed at oilfield equipment that emits methane, volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides.

The U.S. House Science Committee also has notified chief executives of Exxon and nine major oil companies that they must disclose more data about their methane emissions in the Permian Basin.

Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, a Texas Democrat who chairs the panel, said the companies’ current approach to monitoring methane emissions in the basin is inadequate. She said U.S. companies must do more to meet a recent pledge by the U.S. and more than 100 other countries to cut methane emissions by 30% by the end of the decade.

Besides Exxon, companies receiving the letter included Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Devon Energy and Pioneer Natural Resources.

Johnson said she was concerned that leak-detection and repair programs conducted by the oil industry may not identify intermittent leaks that contribute to climate pollution.

The committee set a Jan. 21 deadline for companies to provide data on methane leaks and detection efforts.

House Democrats have approved a plan to impose a fee on methane leaks from oil and gas wells, but the plan faces strong opposition from the industry and criticism by centrist Democrats as it moves to the Senate.

Exxon has made progress with reducing flaring in the Permian Basin. In 2018, Exxon was flaring 11.3% of its gas in the basin. The company brought that down 0.28% in the third quarter of 2021.

Earlier this month, Exxon said it would boost its spending on greenhouse gas emission-reduction projects to $15 billion over the next six years. The energy giant has been under pressure to reduce climate-harming emissions and investors forced turnover on the company’s board in June.

Major European oil and gas companies such as Shell and BP have been diversifying to invest more in solar and wind energy, but “when it comes to Exxon Mobil, they are not necessarily that proactive when it comes to renewable energy,” Abramov said. “They are investing in solar and wind to generate power for their oil and gas extraction. It’s not something they see as a future contributor to their revenue stream.”

___

Bussewitz reported from New York. AP writer Matthew Daly in Washington contributed to this report.



An Overview of How Oil & Natural Gas Was Formed in the Permian Basin

The Permian Basin is one of the most prolific oil producing regions in the U.S. Located in West Texas and East New Mexico; this area spans 86,000 square miles across 52 counties. It has produced over 29 billion barrels of oil and 75 trillion cubic feet of natural gas over the past 90 years. The geology that created this important resource has some fascinating history.



















Regional Differences

The geology of the Permian basin is not uniform but consists of three distinct regions. A Central Basin platform separates the Midland basin and Delaware basin. All three of these regions display differing strata characteristics. The means that oil and gas production are localized in areas across these three sub-basins.

Early History of the Basin


The story of the Permian Basin begins about 300 million years ago. The area was once situated along the western margin of Pangaea and located about 10° north of the equator. Being located along the margin, the area experienced moderate subsidence and carbonate sediment formation. During the Pennsylvanian Ouachita-Marathon Orogeny, a major continental collision event resulted in mountain and basin formation. Throughout the Pennsylvanian and Permian periods, the basin underwent a series of deposition of eroded and broken rock, carbonate from dead sea life, and evaporates consisting of organic matter from shallow evaporation fields. This resulted in the accumulation of stratified material.























The Role of Sea Levels

The greatest influence on the stratigraphy of the Permian Basin was the change in sea level throughout deposition. Most of the area was located on a shelf margin. During periods of high sea level, reefs and shoals developed along the margins resulting in carbonate deposits from sea life. During periods of lower sea levels, deposits were dominated by river deposits. These accumulated along the margins of the shelf and later transported by water into the basin. These eventually formed thick siltstone and sandstone turbidite deposits.

Recent Geology

Throughout the Mesozoic period, the region became more stable. An uplift to the west occurred during the late Tertiary causing basin and range formation. This produced an eastward dip in the pre-tertiary strata. This caused considerable erosion due to groundwater circulation and replacement of Permian evaporates.

The history of the Delaware and Midland basins different significantly. The Midland basin was the recipient of large amounts of sediments from eroded and broken rock during the Carboniferous period. This eventually formed an underwater delta system in the Midland Basin. The Delaware basin received small amounts of sediment from the low coastal plains. The Midland Basin filled long before the Delaware Basin. The Central Basin remained elevated and favored reef formation.

Texas can thank cycles of high and low sea levels that caused the marine shoreline to invade and then recede multiple times for their oil and natural gas reserves. The unique location of the land along an ancient coast caused the formation of the Permian Basin and its abundant oil resources.







Shell Faces Fresh South African Court Test Over Seismic Program

Antony Sguazzin
Mon, December 6, 2021



Royal Dutch Shell Plc faces a fresh legal challenge to its planned seismic survey off South Africa’s eastern coastline with local communities seeking to halt the program.

The case, filed last week, comes after a South African High Court on Friday dismissed a request for an interdict from a group including Greenpeace. The petition had sought to stop the program on grounds including that it may cause irreparable harm to marine life and hurt the livelihoods of those who live off the sea.

The survey involves the firing of a loud air gun every few seconds that environmentalists say is likely to disturb sea life ranging from plankton to whales.

“Our ancestors’ blood was spilt protecting our land and sea,” Reinford Zikulu said in an affidavit filed on behalf of Sustaining The Wild Coast NPC. “We now feel a sense of duty to protect our land and sea for future generations as well as for the benefit of the planet.”

Asbestos, Gold

Sustaining The Wild Coast is represented by Richard Spoor Inc. Attorneys, a group named after its founder who successfully sued South African mining companies for compensation for asbestos and gold miners who suffer from respiratory disease.

In addition to potentially damaging the environment and disrupting local communities’ ability to making a living, Sustaining The Wild Coast argues that Shell doesn’t have the appropriate permits. The group also said Shell’s exploration for oil and gas contradicts the country’s drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.

The case, filed in the Eastern Cape Division of South Africa’s High Court, will be heard on Dec. 14, according to GroundUp, a South African news agency that reports on human rights and environmental matters.

Shell, in a statement on its South African website, maintains that it takes the concerns of local communities into account and is adopting international standards to mitigate the environmental impact of its activities. These include conducting the survey outside of the migratory season for whales, it said. Calls to its South African office outside of normal office hours were not answered.

In addition to the legal action, Shell has faced countrywide protests over its plans in South Africa and a call for a boycott of its gas stations.





BuzzFeed workers slam company as it goes public on Nasdaq

Max Zahn
·Reporter
Mon, December 6, 2021
Digital media company BuzzFeed (BZFD) went public on Monday after a SPAC merger that valued the firm at $1.5 billion, setting it apart from peers like Vox and Vice that remain private.

But some employees aren’t celebrating. The milestone comes days after dozens of workers at the outlet’s news division, which won a Pulitzer Prize this year, walked off the job in protest of a move they say enriches executives while the company refuses a union contract that would raise salaries for employees and bolster worker protections.

BuzzFeed strongly contests that characterization, saying the move to go public will benefit management and workers alike, and that the company is eager to reach a deal with the unionized workers.

The clash marks a flashpoint of worker unrest in the digital media sector, a rare source of union growth in recent years that could draw heightened attention as online outlets begin turning to public markets.

“We are the reason they have a product to take public,” says Addy Baird, a BuzzFeed reporter and chair of the BuzzFeedNews Union, which formed in 2019 and has been bargaining with the company for a contract since that year. “We can’t wait anymore.”

All 61 members of the BuzzFeedNews Union walked off the job last Thursday, the same day the company’s shareholders voted in favor of the plan to take the company public, Baird said. The issues of primary concern for union employees include salary increases, the ability to perform freelance work and post content outside BuzzFeed channels, and the use of traffic metrics in employee evaluations. The union also accused BuzzFeed of needlessly delaying negotiations.

Speaking to Yahoo Finance, the company noted that the union represents a small portion of the roughly 1,100 employees who work at BuzzFeed. As part of the SPAC merger, the company acquired the sports and entertainment publishing company Complex for $300 million, expanding the staff to 1,400, BuzzFeed said.

Contract negotiations were set aside for several months at the outset of the pandemic by emergency talks between management and employees over how to adapt the workplace, BuzzFeed said. The next round of negotiations will take place on Tuesday.

“There’s a bargaining session planned for tomorrow where we look forward to making more progress with the union,” a company spokesperson told Yahoo Finance in a statement. “Today, the company is celebrating an incredible milestone: becoming the first publicly traded digital media company, with Complex Networks in our ranks, and equity for more deals ahead. We couldn’t be more excited about everything that lies ahead for BuzzFeed and its employees.”


NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 06: BuzzFeed CEO Jonah Peretti stands in front of the Nasdaq market site in Times Square as the company goes public through a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company on December 06, 2021 in New York City. Shares of the digital media company, trading under the new ticker “BZFD,” rose 12.7% to $10.84 as markets opened Monday. 
(Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

In its latest proposal, BuzzFeed offered workers a $50,000 salary floor and a guarantee of 1% annual raises, Baird said, deriding the terms as below industry standards. In a public statement about the walkout last week, the union highlighted the challenge of living on such a salary in high-cost cities like New York and San Francisco, where some BuzzFeed offices are located.

"It's incredibly frustrating for us," Baird says. "We're for starters asking them to move on their pay minimums. Engage in the process; stop slow-walking it."

BuzzFeed says it has offered an average overall wage increase of 2.5% across the membership of the union, but that individual annual raises would range from 1% upward depending on merit.

BuzzFeed is expecting $521 million in revenue in 2021, including income generated by Complex Systems.

The company expects to raise $16 million dollars from the SPAC deal, after investors pulled 94% of the $287.5 million raised by the SPAC, an updated filing showed last week. The stock price fell slightly in early trading on Monday and was down over 7% as of 2:30 p.m. EST.

The company and the union have reached tentative agreements on a host of non-economic proposals, including remote work as well as health and safety measures, BuzzFeed said.

The BuzzFeedNews Union belongs to the NewsGuild, which represents workers at many publications, including Reuters, Business Insider, and The New Yorker. The workers at BuzzFeedNews are willing to carry out additional protests if the two sides cannot reach an agreement, Baird said.

"We’re clearly able to mobilize quickly and effectively, and will continue to do so until we have a fair, strong contract that we’re ready to ratify," Baird says. "As far as the immediate future, our next big thing is getting to the bargaining table."

Max Zahn is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Find him on twitter @MaxZahn_.

Read more:


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COVID-19 vaccine mandates: Unions divided over 'complex problem' for organized labor


Teamsters launch campaign to organize Amazon workers

BuzzFeed shares fall in debut after investor withdrawals rock SPAC merger

Mon, December 6, 2021



Jonah Peretti, founder and CEO of BuzzFeed, poses with employees to celebrate the company's debut outside the Nasdaq Market in Times Square in New YorkMore

(Reuters) -Shares of BuzzFeed Inc plunged as much as 17% in their Nasdaq debut on Monday, after its merger with a blank-check company was hit by a flurry of investor withdrawals last week.

New York-based BuzzFeed's stock opened up 14% at $10.95 but reversed course to trade as low as $8. At 1:10 p.m. ET, the shares were down 5% at $9.10.

The company was one of the 10 trending stocks on Stocktwits.com, a platform commonly seen as a measure of interest from retail investors.

After shareholders redeemed a majority of their stake, BuzzFeed said last week it would receive only 6%, or nearly $16 million, of proceeds from the trust account of the blank-check company 890 Fifth Avenue Partners Inc, named after the fictional Avengers mansion.

Special purpose acquisition companies typically sell shares at $10 apiece, put the cash in a trust account and then search for a company to buy. Its shareholders can choose to redeem their shares in return for cash.

Tightening scrutiny from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and saturated demand have weighed on the SPAC market, which soared in popularity last year.

BuzzFeed's deal is a barometer of investor interest for peers like Vox Media, which is reportedly considering a SPAC merger. Magnum Opus Acquisition Ltd, the SPAC merging with Forbes, has been trading below its issue price of $10.

BuzzFeed also secured $150 million through a convertible note financing.

The company, which produces news, videos and online quizzes, was founded in 2006 by Jonah Peretti and John Johnson, and saw a rise in popularity among the youth.

In 2016, the company was valued at $1.7 billion after Comcast Corp-owned NBC Universal's investment.

BuzzFeed bought news website HuffPost last year and also acquired youth entertainment company Complex Networks in June this year.

(Reporting by Mehnaz Yasmin in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel)

BuzzFeed Tumbles in Turbulent Debut for Digital Media

Gerry Smith
Mon, December 6, 2021,



(Bloomberg) -- BuzzFeed Inc. shares fell in their first day of trading, a sign investors are wary of the digital media company after a shaky lead-up to its public debut.

The stock, which trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol BZFD, was down 12% at 11:15 a.m. in New York, after surging earlier in the day. Shares of the blank-check company that BuzzFeed merged with to go public had closed at $9.62 on Friday.

BuzzFeed’s debut as a public company marks a major milestone for the online media company that Jonah Peretti co-founded 15 years ago. It’s also a sign of how other digital media companies could perform on the public market. Among today’s crop of large online publishers, BuzzFeed is the first to have its shares trade.

“The big thing digital media needs for consolidation is a strong public company and we wanted to be the first,” Peretti said in an interview.

BuzzFeed’s journey to the public markets got off to a tough start, however. The company planned to raise $288 million in cash through its merger with a blank-check company, 890 5th Avenue Partners Inc. Instead, most of that business’s investors opted not to participate in the transaction, an option available to participants in special purpose acquisition companies like 890 5th Avenue.

That had left Peretti with just $16 million of the originally intended funds as the company readied its debut.

Peretti said he expected investors would pull their money out because the market for SPACs has cooled. It “won’t meaningfully change our strategy,” he said, noting that BuzzFeed will still have money raised from a $150 million convertible note that’s part of the transaction. As a public company, BuzzFeed can also use its stock as a currency to buy other businesses, he said.

BuzzFeed’s arrival as a public company will lead to management changes. The company is in talks to name Michael Del Nin as its new president, Peretti said. Del Nin was formerly co-chief executive officer of Central European Media Enterprises Ltd., one of Europe’s largest television broadcasters, and an executive at Time Warner Inc., now known as WarnerMedia. He would report to Peretti.

Track Record


Del Nin has a track record leading an exchange-listed company that Peretti doesn’t have.

“I’m an entrepreneur,” Peretti said. “I don’t have public market experience so we’re adding that to the team as part of this transaction.”

Investors have poured more than $190 billion into SPACs since last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While they are seen as being a fast way to go public, they often underperform traditional initial public offerings.

Peretti said BuzzFeed likely would have done an IPO if the pandemic hadn’t disrupted its business. He called the SPAC “a means to an end.”

BuzzFeed’s big moment has also been soured by a labor dispute. On Thursday, BuzzFeed News employees walked off the job to protest what they say is the company’s failure to agree to a fair labor contract.

“It’s a negotiation and it’s hard and there’s disagreement around points,” Peretti said of the walkout. “The bargaining table is where they wanted to have those conversations, so that’s where we’re having them.”

As part of going public, BuzzFeed also acquired youth-focused media company Complex Networks from Hearst Corp. and Verizon Communications Inc. Last year, BuzzFeed bought HuffPost.

Peretti described BuzzFeed and Complex as complementary businesses, with Complex stronger in male-focused topics like sneakers and streetwear.

Third Quarter


Last month, BuzzFeed said its third-quarter revenue grew 20%, helped by an improvement in ad sales. But it also saw a slowdown in sales of goods, citing supply chain issues, and it expects that to continue in the fourth quarter. BuzzFeed sells, among other things, a line of cookware at Walmart named after its food brand Tasty. The business is seen as a way for BuzzFeed to rely less on advertising.

BuzzFeed’s multiple revenue lines allow it to adapt when one area of its businesses slows, according to Peretti.

“The most important thing is we have a resilient, diverse business that can manage through changes in the marketplace,” he said.

Peretti co-founded BuzzFeed in 2006. From the start, the company had a unique ability to create posts that took off on the internet, like “What Colors Are This Dress?” and making a watermelon explode on live video using rubber bands. But it also has gone through its share of struggles, including multiple rounds of layoffs over the years, partly because tech giants have dominated the online ad landscape.

Peretti predicted the company would be making more acquisitions as a public company, including, potentially, subscription-based publishers.

“This gives us this new platform to do a lot of things that were impossible to do before as a private company,” he said. “It’s an exciting moment for us.”

(Updates with share trading beginning in first paragraph. A previous version corrected the description of Nasdaq ceremony.)








WW3.0

Satellite images show the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine that have the US and NATO worried about an invasion

PUTIN WILL USE DEFENCE OF RUSSIANS TO JUSTIFY INVASION, AS HAPPENED IN GEORGIA AND CRIMEA

LAVAROV BITCHED TO BLINKEN ABOUT RUSSIAN PUPPET YANACOVICH AND THE 2014 MADAN REVOLT, THATS HOW FAR BACK THEY WANT TO GO

Ryan Pickrell
Mon, December 6, 2021

Overview of ground forces and equipment in Yelnya, Russia
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies

New satellite images of the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine's borders have come out.

The troop buildup has raised concerns that Russia may invade its neighbor as soon as early next year.

The Biden administration has warned of "severe consequences" if Russia takes military action.


New satellite photos show the buildup of Russian armed forces at strategic locations in western Russia near the Ukrainian border and at one spot in Crimea amid concerns that Russia will invade its neighbor in the near future.

The images, which Insider obtained from Maxar Technologies, show a number of Russian tactical battle groups, including both personnel and equipment, such as tanks, artillery, and armored troop carriers, deployed to the Pogonovo training area and Yelnya in Russia and Novoozernoye in Crimea in November.

Overview of ground forces and equipment in Yelnya, RussiaSatellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies

After snap drills in the spring near Ukraine triggered a few alarms, tensions de-escalated for a time. But alarm bells began ringing again when a significant number of Russian troops were observed gathering a couple hundred miles from Ukraine's border early last month.

Amid a flurry of reports on the Russian troop buildup, State Department and Pentagon officials publicly characterized Russian activity as "unusual" and expressed some concern over Russia's lack of transparency about the reasons for the troop increase.


Troop tents in Yelnya, Russia
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies

Toward the end of November, Bloomberg reported that the US had shared concerns about the possibility of an invasion, as well as intelligence indicating that Russia is positioning forces for a possible multi-directional push into Ukraine, with allies and partners in Europe.

"I would not downplay this," Jeffrey Edmonds, a former CIA military analyst and Russia expert at CNA, told Insider at the time. "The troop buildup is pretty significant."

"I think you always have to assume it's a real possibility," Jim Townsend, a former Pentagon and NATO official and security expert at the Center for New American Security, said.

And in a podcast discussion last month, Michael Kofman, the Research Program Director for the Russia Studies Program at CNA, said he doesn't "think there is going to be a Russian military operation in the coming days and weeks," but added that he is "very worried looking into the coming months and toward this winter."


View of Russian forces deployed to Novoozernoye
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies

Biden administration officials revealed late last week that US intelligence indicates Russia could invade early next year with a force as large as 175,000 troops, according to multiple reports.


A Russian battle group is visible in the Pogonovo training area
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies

One official said that "the Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia's rapid military buildup near Ukraine's borders."

"The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery, and equipment," the administration official said, further explaining that the US estimates "half of these units are already near Ukraine's border."


A second Russian battle group can be seen in the Pogonovo training area
Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies

Though Russia has denied having plans to invade, the buildup comes as Russia has expressed frustration with what he considers to be a lack of respect for Russia's "red lines," NATO activity, Ukraine's pro-Western leanings, and political obstacles in Ukraine running contrary to Russian interests.

"I don't accept anybody's red lines," President Joe Biden told reporters Friday, adding that the US would probably need to have a lengthy discussion with Putin about Russian activities. The White House announced over the weekend the two leaders will talk Tuesday.

As for whether or not Russia will actually move to invade its neighbor, "we don't know whether President Putin has made the decision to invade," Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said last week. But, the secretary added, "we do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so in short order should he so decide."

"So despite uncertainty about intention, and timing, we must prepare for all contingencies while working to see to it that Russia reverses course," he said, warning in remarks at a NATO event of "severe consequences" should Russia invade.

Last Friday, Biden said that he was putting together what he believes to be "the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he may do."


AND LETS NOT FORGET BELARUS ON THE UKRAINIAN BORDER, LUKESHENKO THREATENING THE UKRAINE ON BEHALF OF THE RUSSIANS. ARE HIS MILITARY AND RUSSIAN VISITING TROOPS ALSO ON THE BORDER OF UKRAINE, WHILE HE PLUGS THE POLISH (EU/NATO) BORDER WITH REFUGEES.

Ukraine: America Dropped the Ball on Russia’s Invasion Threat


Anna Nemtsova
Mon, December 6, 2021,

ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images

After U.S. intelligence revealed that Russia may be preparing for a full-on invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov told The Daily Beast in an exclusive interview that the 7-year-long military conflict is even more dangerous today than it was in April of this year, when Moscow deployed up to 150,000 troops along the Ukrainian border.

“The West did not react in time,” the minister said on Monday, adding that it’s now clear that the Kremlin has been plotting an offensive on Ukraine for months. “Russia has de facto annexed Belarus, which adds more than 1,000 km along the border that we have to defend.”

Russia’s Cold War With Ukraine Is About To Heat Up

Up until now, Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has tried to maintain a somewhat neutral position on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Just a few months ago, Lukashenko claimed he would recognize Crimea as Russian territory only “when the last Russian oligarch delivers goods” to the peninsula, referring to the Russian elite’s reluctance to invest in Crimea for fear of getting sanctioned. But now, with Lukashenko fuming over Western sanctions and reliant on the Kremlin’s support, “Minsk is serving as Moscow’s proxy and is used for actions that Russia cannot do with its own hands,” Reznikov told The Daily Beast.

On Saturday, Ukrainians woke up to a flurry of chilling headlines after The Washington Post reported that Russia may be gearing up to attack Ukraine in a matter of months, based on information gathered from a U.S. intelligence analysis. The plan reportedly involves the deployment of over 175,000 Russian troops. All the while, Russian officials have reportedly been pressuring the U.S. into guaranteeing that Ukraine will be blocked from joining NATO.

In other words, the message to America and its allies is clear: Mind your own business, and stay out of it.

According to Reznikov, it gets worse. Not only are there more Russian soldiers on the border than there were in April, but the fact that Ukraine, Poland, and three other Baltic states are now “surrounded” with Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipelines presents its own fresh set of challenges to Ukraine’s resistance efforts.

“The direct gas pipeline to Germany sharply increases military threats to the four NATO states and also to Ukraine. Russia now has the potential to destabilize [their gas supplies] and in doing so, block a strong reaction from Europe,” the minister said. “We saw what that can look like: the Kremlin carried out a hybrid attack on Poland and Lithuania with the help of migrants,” he added, referring to the recent border crisis at the Poland-Belarus border.

The minister warned that in the case of a Russian invasion, millions of Ukrainian refugees would flood the European Union. “The sudden appearance of 3-5 million refugees from Ukraine would be just one of many serious problems that the European society would have to deal with,” he said.

“We are already dealing with several wars at the same time: a political conflict between President Zelensky and oligarch [Rinat] Akhmetov, economic crises and a COVID-19 pandemic,” editor-in-chief of Ukrainskaya Pravda, Sevgil Musaieva told The Daily Beast on Monday. “A war would be a disaster, but we hope that Moscow is just crying wolf again to put pressure on the West.”

Reznikov expressed concerns that the flow of migrants coming from Belarus could also be redirected from the Polish border to its border with Ukraine, where Ukrainian military forces have been preparing to defend a 1,500-mile-long stretch of land for weeks.

Putin and Biden are expected to speak in a video conference summit on Tuesday, but it’s already clear that Moscow does not expect any miracle peace deal between the two presidents. “It's very difficult to expect any breakthroughs from any conversations. We have such huge Augean stables in our bilateral relations now that it is hardly possible to clear them out like this in a few hours of conversation,” the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.

Ukrainian analysts are struggling to assess the legitimacy of Moscow’s invasion plans. “Things look much worse than in April. Since the summer we’ve been reading about Russia recruiting more soldiers online, building field hospitals, kitchens for the war time, and of course about Russian-Ukrainian joint troops,” Ivan Yakovyna, a Kyiv-based analyst at Novoye Vremya magazine, told The Daily Beast on Monday.

A popular television presenter, Yevgeny Kisilev, believes that the current threat of war is real. “There has been a shift in Russian power towards the war hawks. They have won the parliamentary elections, so they want to fight now,” Kisilev, who reports for the Ukraine-24 TV network, told The Daily Beast.

At this point, Reznikov does not believe that any kind of diplomatic agreement will keep Moscow at bay.

“Ukraine already signed the Budapest Memorandum once and gave away the world's third-biggest nuclear arsenal in exchange for what we considered ‘guarantees.’ After some time, one of the guarantor countries, the Russian Federation, violated all agreements and attacked us, occupying part of our territories. Tens of thousands of our people have already died. We don't really believe in any paper deals," he told The Daily Beast.

Putin Ushers in New Cold War Era by Severing Russia’s NATO Link

The minister went on: “The guarantee would be the West’s practical steps towards strengthening Ukraine's defense capability and our army. So that the price of a possible escalation would become unacceptable for the Kremlin’s military plans, and also, a clear preventive signal to Russia that the escalation of the war would destroy Russia economically. Only such an approach would be a guarantee.”

The stark contrast between the positions of Washington and Moscow was laid bare last week when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Washington would “impose severe costs and consequences” in response to any Russian escalation. Lavrov responded by saying that NATO was “playing with fire.”

“The situation is dangerous,” pro-Kremlin analyst Yuriy Krupnov told The Daily Beast. “Since the absolute mistrust between Russia and the West makes the future completely uncertain.”

Read more at The Daily Beast.