CALIFORNIA

Environmentalists hail another county move to tighten control over oil drilling


Cheri Carlson and Kathleen Wilson,

 Ventura County Star
Fri, March 4, 2022

Environmental groups are hailing a recent decision to shorten a permit for oil drilling near the Sespe Wilderness as a precedent-setting shift toward drawing down oil and gas production.

The Ventura County Planning Commission voted to halve the duration of Carbon California’s permit renewal from 20 to 10 years and set limits on re-drilling wells. The company has one active well and two idle ones on the site.

The Feb. 17 hearing came after three groups – Los Padres ForestWatch, Keep Sespe Wild, and Climate First: Replacing Oil & Gas – appealed the county planning director's renewal of the permit last year. The groups cited problems with the environmental review, inadequate surety bonds and other issues.

Jeff Kuyper, executive director of Los Padres ForestWatch, called the decision precedent-setting and “a good first step” toward winding down oil production.

“We were pleased to see the planning commission recommend several changes to the project that really signal a shift from business as usual,” he said.

A county planning manager, though, did not consider the decision a milestone.

“We were absolutely fine with the outcome,” said Mindy Fogg, who handles oil and gas permits at the county Planning Division. “It is not a blanket change in our minds.”

Carbon originally asked for a 30-year extension, she said, but planners recommended 20 because it is considered the norm.

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Company calls decision 'win-win'

Jane Farkas, Carbon's vice president of land and regulatory affairs, called the commission’s vote a “win-win,” with the company getting the permit extended and the time period cut to 10 years as the environmental groups wanted.

The Sespe oilfield, which dates back to the late 1800s, is a checkerboard of federal and private land in the steep mountains above Fillmore.

The county, which regulates leases on private land, has authorized 21 conditional-use permits covering around 200 wells, Kuyper said. More than half of them are decades old and generally have no expiration dates or caps on the number of wells that can be drilled.

Known as "antiquated" permits, the county granted them in oil-rich unincorporated areas from the late 1940s to the mid-1960s. That made the Carbon California permit renewal relatively rare – the first in the Sespe oilfield to get updated in 25 years, Kuyper said.

“These opportunities don’t come around that often,” he said.

ICYMI: David vs Goliath battle forming over Ventura County oil and gas development

Site of Carbon California's lease in the Sespe oilfield.

Commissioners urged to hit pause

The county first approved a permit for Carbon's wells on the site in 1968 and the latest extension expired in 2018.

The environmental groups urged the commission to require a more extensive environmental review before considering another extension and, if the renewal is granted, to limit the permit to 10 years.

During the hearing, commissioners said the 10-year timeframe made sense.

"Some of the points that were made during this hearing and in the documents that we've read are very compelling,” Commissioner Nora Aidukas said.

The 4-0 vote also limited re-drilling, added restoration requirements for an unused portion of the site and refunded a $1,000 appeal fee to the environmental groups. Commissioner Jim King was absent.

Though the groups had hoped for "a more robust environmental study,” Kuyper said the commission's decision “certainly signaled a willingness to look more carefully at these issues and scrutinize the future of oil drilling in the county.”

Check out: Pandemic delays work to seal oil wells off Santa Barbara shore for at least another year

Decisions spark lawsuits

The commission’s vote aligns with other recent county steps to toughen oversight of the oil industry, moves that have sparked a volley of lawsuits and a voter referendum.

The county Board of Supervisors narrowly adopted a new general plan in September 2020 with buffer zones between new wells and homes tripling from 500 to 1,500 feet.

Two months later, the board updated standards for reviewing project requests under the antiquated permits. But that change has yet to take effect. Opponents mounted a successful petition drive to put the issue on the June 7 primary ballot.

The board has also directed planners to draft land-use changes that would require more frequent review of permits and higher financial assurances from permit holders.

The proposed changes, originally due last November, are not expected to arrive until this fall. Resource Management Director Kim Prillhart attributed the delay to the complexity of the work and pandemic-related staff shortages.

Cheri Carlson covers the environment for the Ventura County Star. Reach her at cheri.carlson@vcstar.com or 805-437-0260.

Kathleen Wilson covers the Ventura County government, including the county health system, politics and social services. Reach her at kathleen.wilson@vcstar.com or 805-437-0271.

This article originally appeared on Ventura County Star: Ventura County oilfield permit shortened by panel after activists' appeal

Honduras repeals 'secrets law' in fight against corruption

Swearing-in ceremony of new Honduran President Castro in Tegucigalpa

Wed, March 2, 2022

TEGUCIGALPA (Reuters) - Honduran lawmakers have repealed legislation that critics dubbed the "official secrets law" for classifying public documents on national security and defense, marking one of the first efforts under a new leftist administration to curb corruption.

President Xiomara Castro, who took office in January, had made campaign vows to repeal the law along with others that she said prevent government officials from being investigated and prosecuted for graft.

The so-called secrets law took effect in 2014 under former President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was arrested in February after a U.S. extradition request on drug trafficking and weapons charges.

Honduras' Congress voted Tuesday evening to repeal the law, which proponents during Hernandez's administration had said was needed to avoid jeopardizing police operations against drug cartels and gangs by keeping certain documents and contracts from public view.

"We have repealed the law of secrets, an instrument that encouraged corruption for eight years in Honduras," said Luis Redondo, the president of Congress.

The move will become official once published in the country's official legal gazette.

Roger Stone Distances Himself From ‘Stop the Steal’ and Insurrection After WaPo Documentary Bombshell

Jose Pagliery
Fri, March 4, 2022

REUTERS

Roger Stone, whose decades of political work have earned him a reputation as the Republican Party’s “dirty trickster,” played a central role in the attempt to overturn the 2020 election results and was the architect of the #StopTheSteal campaign, The Washington Post revealed Friday.

The D.C. newspaper’s reporters gained exclusive access to video footage shot by Danish filmmakers for a yet-unreleased documentary titled A Storm Foretold. Clips of the film were published to support the Post’s assertions that Stone played the role of puppeteer in the crucial weeks after Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump.

“We are relaunching Stop the Steal,” he told an associate by phone, after instructing them to gather news headlines that would cast doubt on the validity of the election.

Will the Oath Keepers Founder Spill on the Jan. 6 Organizers?

The footage also showed how Stone was quick to walk away from the chaos when words inspired action and the coordinated political campaign of lies led to its inevitable conclusion: Thousands of violent Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol building. A dramatic video clip shows a disappointed Stone packing his bags at a hotel to leave Washington as rioters descended on the seat of Congress.

Stone, reached by The Daily Beast on Friday morning, pushed back and claimed The Washington Post story had “13 errors of fact.”

“Any claim assertion or implication that I was involved in or knew about or condoned illegal actions at the capital[sic] on January 6 is baseless and categorically false,” he texted. “Those who stormed the capital destroyed a perfectly legal effort to delay certification or the electoral college for 11 days so that irregularities and anomalies in voting Airzona Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania and Nevada could be more thoroughly examined.”

The Post story does not assert that he instructed rioters to attack Congress, but the sudden appearance of the “Stop the Steal” movement did, in fact, fuel widespread suspicion and culminate in the insurrection.

When asked if he takes credit for resurrecting #StopTheSteal, Stone pushed back—but acknowledged that he came up with the phrase for another reason years ago.

“No I coined the phrase ‘stop the steal’ back in 2016 as it pertained to the 2016 Republican national convention,” he texted The Daily Beast.

Stone on Friday also took issue with some associations connected to his time at the Willard InterContinental Hotel, where powerful Trump loyalists held a “war room” to coordinate the attempt to buck the U.S. Constitution and illegally keep him in office. For example, Stone distanced himself from Elmer Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the Oath Keepers, the anti-government paramilitary organization whose members stormed the Capitol while wearing military gear and uniforms.

One member of that group, Joshua James, served as Stone’s golf cart chauffeur and quasi-bodyguard shortly before the assault—and has since pleaded guilty to seditious conspiracy, the most serious criminal charge yet used in Jan. 6 cases. Video footage allegedly shows James inside Stone’s hotel suite at the Willard.

“I have never spoken to Stewart Roads [sic] in my life [and] Joshua James was never in my hotel suite,” Stone texted.

Previous reporting by The Daily Beast shows that members of the Oath Keepers ultimately felt betrayed by Stone and other VIPs they were guarding during that tumultuous week in the nation’s capital—a friction that could be seized on by the House Jan. 6 Committee and the Justice Department, which are both investigating illegal activity connected to the insurrection.

New evidence details Roger Stone's efforts against 2020 election: WaPo

Fri, March 4, 2022

Former Trump advisor Roger Stone speaks to reporters after giving a deposition to the Jan. 6 select committee at the Thomas P. O'Neill Jr. Federal Building in Washington, D.C., on Friday, December 17, 2021.

New video evidence from a documentary in the making about Roger Stone offers new details about his involvement in efforts to undermine the results of the 2020 presidential election, according to The Washington Post, which reviewed more than 20 hours of film.

Stone, a longtime political adviser to former President Trump, is having a documentary made of him called "A Storm Foretold." A Danish film crew has followed him around the past two years to produce the film.

Video from the crew shows Stone involved in numerous aspects of the Trump campaign to unwind the election, including knowledge of a plot to oust Justice Department leadership days before it was publicly reported.

It maps his movements at the Willard Hotel with Oath Keepers members by his side as his security guards. It details more about his campaign to secure pardons before leaving office - including a plot to secure preemptive pardons for lawmakers who voted against certification of the election results.

Stone was subpoenaed and appeared before the House Committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, pleading the fifth to every single question asked over his 90 minute deposition.

But the documentary footage touches on many areas the committee sought to question Stone about.

Stone suggested as early as July 2020 that Trump should use his powers as president to reject the election results.

"It's going to be really nasty," Stone said, saying he thought Democrats would try to steal the election, according to one of the videos released in the Post's report. "If the electors show up at the Electoral College, armed guards will throw them out."

'I'm the president. F--- you,' " Stone thought Trump would say in the face of a supposed rigged election. " 'You're not stealing Florida, you're not stealing Ohio. I'm challenging all of it, and the judges we're going to are judges I appointed.' "

In another video, Stone directs an aide to resurrect his Stop the Steal campaign, even as he publicly sought to distance himself from others involved. Another organizer, Ali Alexander, was also subpoenaed by the committee.

Stone likewise asks the aide to recruit retired law enforcement and military personnel for the effort.

The clip shows how Stone thought of the campaign against the election as a money earning situation.

Stone told an aide in reported messages that his brand will get "quite a bit hotter" and he's "going to raise money from Stop the Steal - it will be like falling off a log."

That same day, footage also shows him talking with one-time Trump national security advisor Michael Flynn, another figure subpoenaed by the committee, with the two strategizing the slogan "Count every legal ballot."

Before the riot, Stone spoke at a rally in D.C. on Jan. 5, flanked by members of the far-right Oath Keepers group that have since been charged with seditious conspiracy. One of the men, Joshua James, pleaded guilty this week and agreed to cooperate with authorities.

But things began to unravel on Jan. 6. The video shows Stone complaining he wasn't getting VIP treatment as organizers apparently sought to block him from speaking.

However, once the Capitol riot was underway, Stone seemed to change his tune, and also attempted to dodge the filmmakers.

In the video reviewed by the Post, Stone is seen saying the Capitol riot was "really bad" for Trump's movement and left Washington, D.C., on a private plane on Jan. 6, 2021.

Stone was seen talking to the film crew to condemn the riot but also said it was the fault of the legislature and judicial system for not giving the people a "fair, honest and transparent election."

In responses to the Post, Stone chastised the outlet's reporting and said videos of him could be "deep fakes" and accused the reporters of "half truths, anonymous claims, falsehoods and out of context trick questions."

Stone did not respond to a request for comment from The Hill.

The video also shows Stone complaining the attack at the Capitol wrecked the president's schedule, bumping a meeting he expected to attend on pardons.

Stone continued to lobby for pardons after Jan. 6, including for Republican Sens. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Josh Hawley (Mo.) and Reps. Matt Gaetz (Fla.) and Jim Jordan (Ohio), all of whom either tried to delay or block the certification of Biden's victory that day.

In another call he tells a friend he raised the possibility of pardons for "Gaetz and others," a reference to Rep. Matt Gaetz who is under federal investigation in connection with Joel Greenberg, who has been indicted on sex trafficking charges. Stone has denied reports that show text messages between him and Greenberg discussing a fee for Jones help in securing a pardon.

Stone was also working to secure a pardon for himself. Trump commuted his sentence after he was convicted of lying to Congress. The video shows him upset that one-time White House strategist Steve Bannon is able to secure one, calling him a "grifter scumbag" and other expletives.

On Inauguration Day, Stone is also seen saying Trump made an error in not trying to pardon himself.

"A good, long sentence in prison will give him a chance to think about it, because the Southern District is coming for him, and he did nothing," Stone said.

"Run again! You'll get your f---ing brains beat in," Stone said.

After the call, he warned the filmmakers against using the footage.

"Obviously if you use any of that, I'll murder you," he said.

GEN Z SOLIDARITY 
Hampton students stage walkout in support of elementary school student

Dave Ress, Daily Press
Fri, March 4, 2022, 8:44 AM·2 min read

When students walked out of all four high schools Monday afternoon in Hampton, they were responding to a social media campaign for support of an elementary school-aged girl.

Nikia Miller’s oldest daughter began to plan the walkout last month. The 15-year-old told her mother she wanted to organize a peaceful protest after seeing what her family experienced since they began to speak publicly about her younger sister’s sexual assault allegations.

The 15-year-old posted about the demonstration on social media, her mother said in an interview, not expecting the response she received.

“She said it was a moment where she felt really accepted, and she felt like people understood what she was trying to do, and she felt supported,” Miller said.

Miller has said her younger daughter was sexually assaulted by another student in 2020, and has maintained since then that Hampton school officials have not met her demands to support her daughter’s well-being.

School officials have denied that, saying their response was appropriate. And in a message sent to parents Monday night the Hampton school division said assertions made in sparking the walkout were not accurate. The school division did not name Miller or her daughter.

Those assertions were about sexual allegations involving two second-grade students, the division said in a statement. The social media post claimed school officials did not take those allegations seriously.

The two participated in separate after-school programs, the statement said.

School officials notified Hampton police. According to a police report, the two girls were ages 7 and 9 when school administrators and police found out. The city’s prosecutor later opted not to file charges.

In addition, when school officials became aware of the incident, they “took proactive actions including, at the parent’s request, enrolling the aggrieved student at another school and offering counseling.”

The school system added that if required, it “welcomes the opportunity for a court to examine this situation as the division is confident that at all times (Hampton schools) personnel acted appropriately.”

The statement said that there are better avenues than social media for parents to present concerns about how school officials handle incidents.

To protect the students’ privacy, the school system said it could provide no further details.

Miller said she fully supports her daughter’s actions and she appreciates the support other students showed during the walkout.

A Hampton schools spokesperson said the division supports “peaceful assembly.” Students who did not follow the district’s Code of Conduct faced consequences. The division did not say what those consequences were, nor how many students were disciplined.

Dave Ress, 757-247-4535, dress@dailypress.com

Sierra Jenkins, 229-462-8896, sierra.jenkins@virginiamedia.com

TIGHT FISTED MILLIONAIRE LIBERAL

Nancy Pelosi has disclosed her husband's new batch of investments, which include $2.9 million worth of Apple, Disney, PayPal and Amex shares

Cheryl Teh
Thu, March 3, 2022


House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has publicly disclosed a batch of stock trades made by her husband in January.

According to the disclosure, Paul Pelosi's new investments include $2.9 million in Apple, Walt Disney, PayPal, and Amex shares.

A House panel is due to debate a congressional stock trading ban that could include lawmakers' spouses.

Nancy Pelosi has publicly disclosed her husband's investments in January, which include $2.9 million worth of American Express, Apple, PayPal, and Walt Disney stocks.

According to a periodic transaction report dated Monday, Pelosi's husband invested between $250,000 and $500,000 in asset management firm AllianceBernstein. Under the STOCK Act, lawmakers must disclose stock transactions — be it their own or of family members — within 45 days.

The disclosure comes amid calls by lawmakers for members of Congress and their spouses to be barred from trading individual stocks. On Thursday, Insider's Kimberly Leonard reported that a US House panel plans to meet on March 16 to debate a congressional stock trading ban.

Punchbowl News reported in February that Pelosi was working on the ban. While she rejected the idea of a ban in December, she changed course the following month, signaling that she would be okay with letting lawmakers decide for themselves about it.

However, Pelosi has been largely noncommital on whether spouses should be included in any proposed ban.

The upcoming House panel meeting follows the release of Insider's "Conflicted Congress" report — a five-month investigation that found that dozens of lawmakers and at least 182 senior congressional staffers had failed to comply with the reporting requirements of the STOCK Act.

Pelosi's husband, financier Paul Pelosi, has been lauded as a star stock-picker for his winning trades, even prompting TikTokers to mimic his investments. His holdings in corporations — including Slack, Tesla, Alphabet, Facebook, and Netflix — have placed his wife in the 13th spot on Insider's list of 25 wealthiest members of Congress.

The cold, hard truth about EVs in winter



Joann Muller
Fri, March 4, 2022
Data: Recurrent; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

More Americans are opting to purchase an electric vehicle, but some EV owners are surprised to find out how much their car's driving range is compromised by winter weather.

Why it matters: Getting over the hurdles of buying an EV — the higher sticker price, knowing where to charge it or the fear of getting stranded — is hard enough.

If your car doesn't live up to the EPA-estimated range that was promised, it could undermine confidence in EVs and even deter potential buyers.

Case in point: In January, Margaret and her husband took their first road trip in their new Mustang Mach-E from Washington, D.C., to a cabin near Wardensville, West Virginia, roughly 110 miles away.

Their car has an EPA range of 300 miles, but in the chilly weather the estimate before they left home was only about 200 miles, so they had to build in a stop for recharging.

Reality check: Most electric vehicles experience some loss of driving range in cold weather.

In Norway — where half of all new cars are plug-ins — tests show that EVs lose about 20% of their driving range and take longer to charge in cold temperatures, according to the Norwegian Automobile Federation.

AAA found the loss in driving range could be as high as 41% with the heater on full blast.

Consumer Reports urges EV buyers to opt for a larger battery to account for unpredictable weather.

What they're saying: “Batteries are like humans,” Anna Stefanopoulou, director of the University of Michigan’s Energy Institute, told Wired.

“They prefer the same sort of temperature range that people do. Anything below 40 or above 115 degrees Fahrenheit and they’re not going to deliver their peak performance," according to Wired.

Some EVs do better than others in the cold, however, according to battery analysis firm Recurrent, which uses data collected from EV owners to create "battery health reports" on pre-owned EVs.

The company analyzed the real-world winter driving range of thousands of electric vehicles and found the Tesla Model Y retained most of its EPA-rated range in winter.

Tesla has developed more advanced thermodynamic systems, including a heat pump to warm the interior, Recurrent CEO Scott Case tells Axios.

Between the lines: Cold temperatures slow down the chemical reactions in battery cells, which saps range and increases charging times.


Without heat-producing engines, EVs also have to siphon battery power to warm the cabin.

The intrigue: Your driving also affects your EV's range. If you drive with a lead foot, or you like to crank the heat, your expected range will be less.

Ironically, driving only a few miles a day will also shorten your range estimate.

There are steps EV owners can take to maximize their cold-weather driving range, Donna Dickson, chief engineer of the Mach-E, tells Axios.

Start the vehicle while it’s plugged in to allow the battery to warm up.

“The key is warming that battery up," Dickson said. "That pre-conditioning helps so much because it gets it to a temperature level that works efficiently.

What to watch: Ford is considering a software update that would give drivers more insight into how to improve their vehicle’s range.

Like this article? Get more from Axios and subscribe to Axios Markets for free.

I, like so many, can only afford solar because of net metering | Opinion

Bruce Strouble
Fri, March 4, 2022

I am a proud solar homeowner. My panels save my family money on our energy bills every month - bills that for many, have only gotten higher as Florida Power & Light continues to raise rates.

I am not a wealthy man. I come from a community that can be described as “low-to-moderate income,” and the only reason I could afford to put solar panels on my roof was net metering - the fundamental policy that some state lawmakers want to eliminate through HB 741 and SB 1024.

The system they want to destroy, net metering, allows people of all income levels to not only install rooftop solar panels and generate their own resilient, clean electricity, but also share that clean energy with their neighbors.

My family wanted to reduce our carbon footprint and control our energy costs. Net metering gives us, and those like us, the ability to do so. Getting rid of net metering will shut out people of all income levels from the freedom to choose how they power their homes

False statements being pushed by Florida’s monopoly utilities claim that only wealthy people own solar - and that low-income communities subsidize them. Not only is there no proof of this, but hard data proves the opposite to be true.

For example, in Florida Power & Light’s territory, nearly 80% of its customers live below $100,000 a year. Statewide, 60% of rooftop solar customers live on incomes less than $100,000. It is us working-class Floridians who want–and need–control over their energy bills and choices. Furthermore, net metering customers do not avoid any charges. Instead, they offset those charges with the production of additional electricity that becomes available to their community.

Officials of Talquin Electric Cooperative at Liberty County, home of the FL Solar D3 – Bristol location, one of three solar projects underway, on Jan. 13, 2021.

We need to push back against private interest groups that do not care about the average Floridian and continue to put profits ahead of the needs of communities like mine. Low-to-moderate communities face a heavier energy burden, and rooftop solar is how we can reduce it while accessing the benefits of clean, resilient energy.

Let’s be clear. Barely 1% percent of Floridians own rooftop solar panels. Taking away a basic solar policy when the state has only scratched the surface with clean energy is equivalent to knocking out the foundation of a house before it even has windows and doors installed. What’s the point?

If we want to see Florida become a leader in clean energy, to live up to our name as the Sunshine State, then we should be doing the opposite of what this utility-crafted, anti-solar legislation wants to do. We should be creating more opportunities for people to choose solar.

The bottom line: solar is not a partisan issue with Floridians. In fact, a newly released Mason Dixon poll shows 84% of Floridians (76% Republicans and 95% Democrats) support net metering. It doesn’t make sense to eliminate this popular billing mechanism.

Florida is at a critical moment. It’s important for everyone to fight for the right to control our energy costs and to invest in a clean, resilient future for all Floridians today and for generations to come.

Bruce Strouble
Bruce Strouble is a solar homeowner and Sustainability Coordinator for the City of Tallahassee. The opinions expressed here represent his personal views and not the City of Tallahassee's.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: I, like so many, can only afford solar because of net metering | Opinion

CHILD MURDERERS
Saudi court issues new death sentence against man arrested as juvenile


FILE PHOTO: General view of Riyadh city

Thu, March 3, 2022, 

RIYADH (Reuters) - A Saudi Arabian court handed down a new death sentence against a young man for crimes committed when he was a minor after a higher court overturned a previous ruling, his family said, in what rights groups called a "grossly unfair trial".

Abdullah al-Huwaiti was arrested when he was 14 years old and sentenced to death three years later in 2019 on murder and armed robbery charges. A court overturned the conviction in November but, under Saudi law, a retrial followed.

"The Criminal Court in Tabuk (north west) sentenced the minor Abdullah al-Huwaiti in retribution," his mother Um Abdullah wrote on Twitter after Wednesday's ruling.

"After the Supreme Court overturned the first ruling because of false confessions, today it pronounces an unjust conviction just like last time."

The Saudi government media office CIC did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Saudi authorities had in 2020 scrapped the death penalty for juveniles and said they would apply this retroactively. The kingdom's state-backed Human Rights Commission later clarified that the ban on the death penalty only applied to a lesser category of offences under Islamic law known as "ta'zeer."

Wednesday's ruling against Huwaiti was in the category of "qisas", or retribution, usually for murder, which under Islamic law allows families of victims to demand the death sentence, compensation or to offer a pardon.

"Abdullah al-Howaiti has now been sentenced to death not once, but twice, by a court that knows he was fourteen years old when he was arrested and tortured," Maya Foa, director of anti-death penalty charity Reprieve, said in a statement.

"How can this be when Saudi Arabia has claimed, so often and so vociferously, to have eliminated the death penalty for children?"

Huwaiti had been arrested along with five others and Human Rights Watch and Reprieve have said all six defendants told court sessions that interrogators had coerced their confessions through torture or the threat of it.

Saudi authorities have previously denied similar allegations about the use of torture.

In October, Ali Al-Nimr, a young Shi'ite Muslim whose death sentence had been commuted to 10 years in prison under the legislative reforms, was released from prison.

(Reporting by Aziz El Yaakoubi, Editing by William Maclean)

'It could happen tomorrow': Experts know disaster upon disaster looms for West Coast

Joel Shannon
Thu, March 3, 2022

Brown pelicans fly in front of the San Francisco skyline Aug 17, 2018.

LONG READ

It's the elevators that worry earthquake engineering expert Keith Porter the most.

Scientists say a massive quake could strike the San Francisco Bay Area at any moment. And when it does, the city can expect to be slammed with a force equal to hundreds of atomic bombs.

Porter said the shaking will quickly cut off power in many areas. That means unsuspecting people will be trapped between floors in elevators without backup power. At peak commute times, the number of those trapped could be in the thousands.

To escape, the survivors of the initial quake will need the help of firefighters with specialized training and tools.

But their rescuers won't come – at least not right away. Firefighters will be battling infernos that could outnumber the region's fire engines.

Running water will be in short supply. Cellphone service may not work at all. The aftershocks will keep coming.

And the electricity could remain off for weeks.

"That means people are dead in those elevators,” Porter said.

TODAY Video: 6.2 magnitude earthquake rocks Northern California

'Problems on the horizon'

The situation Porter described comes from his work on HayWired Scenario, a detailed look at the cascading calamities that will occur when a major earthquake strikes the Bay Area's Hayward Fault, including the possibility of widespread power outages that will strand elevators.

The disaster remains theoretical for now. But the United States Geological Survey estimates a 51% chance that a quake as big as the one described in HayWired will occur in the region within three decades.

It's one of several West Coast disasters so likely that researchers have prepared painstakingly detailed scenarios in an attempt to ready themselves.

'SUPERIONIC': Scientists discover the Earth's inner core isn't solid or liquid

FACT? CHECKED. Make sure you have the real story with the Checking the Facts newsletter.

The experts who worked on the projects are highly confident the West Coast could at any moment face disasters with the destructive power to kill hundreds or thousands of people and forever change the lives of millions more. They also say there's more that can be done to keep individuals – and society – safer.

"We’re trying to have an earthquake without having one,” Anne Wein told USA TODAY. Wein is a USGS researcher who co-leads the HayWired earthquake scenario and has worked on several other similar projects.

Such disaster scenarios are massive undertakings that bring together experts from various fields who otherwise would have little reason to work together – seismologists, engineers, emergency responders and social scientists.

That's important because "it's difficult to make new relationships in a crisis," Wein said.

Similar projects aimed at simulating a future disaster have turned out to be hauntingly accurate.

The Hurricane Pam scenario foretold many of the devastating consequences of a major hurricane striking New Orleans well before Hurricane Katrina hit the city.

More recently, in 2017, the authors of “The SPARS Pandemic” called their disaster scenario “futuristic.” But now the project now reads like a prophecy of COVID-19. Johns Hopkins University even issued a statement saying the 89-page document was not intended as a prediction of COVID-19.

“The SPARS Pandemic” imagined a future where a deadly novel coronavirus spread around the world, often without symptoms, as disinformation and vaccine hesitancy constantly confounded experts’ efforts to keep people safe.

The “SPARS scenario, which is fiction, was meant to give public health communicators a leg up … Think through problems on the horizon,” author Monica Schoch-Spana told USA TODAY.

At the time that SPARS was written, a global pandemic was thought of in much the same way experts currently describe the HayWired earthquake: an imminent catastrophe that could arrive at any time.
'It could happen tomorrow'

Disaster scenario researchers each have their own way of describing how likely the apocalyptic futures they foresee are.

"The probability (of) this earthquake is 100%, if you give me enough time," seismologist Lucy Jones will often say.

Earthquakes occurring along major faults are a certainty, but scientists can't predict exactly when earthquakes will happen – the underground forces that create them are too random and chaotic. But researchers know a lot about what will happen once the earth begins to shake.

Earthquakes like HayWired are “worth planning for," Porter said. Because “it could happen tomorrow.”

“We don’t know when,” Porter said. But "it will happen."

Wein says we're “overdue for preparedness.” You might say we're also overdue for a major West Coast disaster.

The kind of earthquake described in HayWired historically occurs every 100-220 years. And it's been more than 153 years since the last one.

Farther south in California, it's difficult to pin down exactly how at risk Los Angeles is for The Big One – the infamous theoretical earthquake along the San Andreas fault that will devastate the city. But a massive magnitude 7.5 earthquake has about a 1 in 3 chance of striking the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years, the United States Geological Survey estimates.

A 2008 scenario said a magnitude 7.8 quake could cause nearly 2,000 deaths and more than $200 billion in economic losses. Big quakes in Los Angeles are particularly devastating because the soil holding up the city will turn into a "bowl of jelly," according to a post published by catastrophe modeling company Temblor.

Another scenario warns that a stretch of coast in Oregon and Washington state is capable of producing an earthquake much more powerful than the ones California is bracing for. Parts of coastline would suddenly drop 6 feet, shattering critical bridges, destroying undersea communication cables and producing a tsunami.

Thousands are expected to die, but local leaders are considering projects that could give coastal residents a better chance at survival.

It too "could happen at any time," the scenario says.

Earthquake scenarios often focus on major coastal cities, but West Coast residents farther inland also have yet another disaster to brace for.

"Megastorms are California's other Big One," the ARkStorm scenario says. It warns of a statewide flood that will cause more than a million evacuations and devastate California's agriculture.

Massive storms that dump rain on California for weeks on end historically happen every few hundred years. The last one hit around the time of the Civil War, when weeks of rain turned portions of the state "into an inland sea."
'Decades to rebuild'

Whether the next disaster to strike the West Coast is a flood, an earthquake or something else, scenario experts warn that the impacts will reverberate for years or longer.

"It takes decades to rebuild,” Wein said. “You have to think about a decade at least."

A major West Coast earthquake isn't just damaged buildings and cracked roads.

It's weeks or months without running water in areas with millions of people. It's mass migrations away from ruined communities. It's thousands of uninhabitable homes.

Depending on the scenario, thousands of people are expected to die. Hundreds of thousands more could be left without shelter. And those impacts will be a disproportionately felt.

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California already has a housing and homelessness crisis, and Nnenia Campbell said the next disaster is set to only magnify existing inequalities. Campbell is the deputy director of the The William Averette Anderson Fund, which works to mitigate disasters for minority communities.

Campbell doesn't talk about "natural disasters" because there's nothing natural about the way a major earthquake will harm vulnerable communities more than wealthy ones.

Human decisions like redlining have led to many of the inequities in our society, she said. But humans can also still make decisions that will help make our response to the next disaster more equitable.

Many of those choices need to be made by local leaders and emergency management planers. Investing in infrastructure programs that will make homes in minority communities less vulnerable to earthquakes. Understanding how important a library is to unhoused people. Making sure all schools are built to withstand a disaster. Keeping public spaces open, even during an emergency.

But individuals can make a difference as well, Campbell said. You can complete training that will prepare you to help your community in the event of an emergency. Or you can join a mutual aid network, a group where community members work together to help each other.

Community support is a common theme among disaster experts: One of the best ways to prepare is to know and care about your neighbors.

If everyone only looks out for themselves in the next disaster, “we are going to have social breakdown," Jones said.
What you can do

Experts acknowledge you'll want to make sure you and your family are safe before being able to help others. Fortunately, many disaster preparedness precautions are inexpensive and will help in a wide range of emergency situations.

Be prepared to have your access to electricity or water cut off for days or weeks.

For electricity, you'll at least want a flashlight and a way to charge your phone.

While cell service will be jammed immediately after a major earthquake, communications will likely slowly come back online faster than other services, Wein said. (And when trying to use your phone, text – don't call. In a disaster, text messages are more reliable and strain cell networks less.)

To power your phone, you can cheaply buy a combination weather radio, flashlight and hand-crank charger to keep your cell running even without power for days.

A cash reserve is good to have, too, Jones said. You'll want to be able to buy things, even if your credit card doesn't work for a time.

Preparing for earthquakes specifically is important along the West Coast, too, experts said. Simple things like securing bookshelves can save lives. Downloading an early warning app can give you precious moments to protect yourself in the event a big quake. Buying earthquake insurance can protect homeowners. And taking part in a yearly drill can help remind you about other easy steps you can take to prepare.

There's even more you could do to ready yourself for a catastrophe, but many disaster experts are hesitant to rely on individuals' ability to prepare themselves.

Just as health experts have begged Americans to use masks and vaccines to help keep others safe during the pandemic, disaster scenario experts believe community members will need to look out for one another when the next disaster strikes.

Telling people to prepare as if “nobody is coming to help you” is a self-fulfilling prophesy, Jones said.

For now, policymakers hold the real power in how prepared society will be for the next disaster. And there's many problems to fix, according to Porter.

It's things like upgrading a city's plumbing, because many aging and brittle water pipes will shatter in a major earthquake, cutting off water to communities for weeks or months.

"Shake it, and it breaks,” Porter said.

Getting ready for the next big earthquake means mundane improvements like even stricter building codes, emergency water supply systems for firefighters and retrofitting elevators with emergency power.

Just that change alone could prevent thousands of people from being trapped in elevators when the big San Francisco earthquake comes.

“A lot of that suffering can be avoided," Porter said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: California's Big One just one West Coast disaster worth preparing for

UN plan to help 1.6 million displaced by Ethiopia war

AFP 

The United Nations appealed Friday for $205 million to deliver life-saving assistance to more than 1.6 million people who have fled the fighting in northern Ethiopia

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© EDUARDO SOTERAS More than 1.6 million people have been displaced by the conflict

UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, said $117 million was needed to support Ethiopian and Eritrean refugees in the Afar, Amhara, and Tigray regions.

A further $72 million is required to help Ethiopian refugees in Sudan, while $16 million would be earmarked for contingency measures in other neighbouring countries.

Ethiopia's war broke out in November 2020 when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent troops into Tigray to topple the Tigray People's Liberation Front, a move he said came in response to the rebel group's attacks on army camps.

The war has spread to neighbouring regions, killed thousands and, according to the UN and the United States, driven hundreds of thousands to the brink of starvation.

"Sixteen months of conflict in northern Ethiopia has created a humanitarian crisis," UNHCR spokeswoman Shabia Mantoo told reporters in Geneva.

"Civilians, including refugees and internally displaced people have been displaced, amid widespread reports of gender-based violence, human rights abuses, loss of shelter and access to basic services, and critical levels of food insecurity.

"More than two million Ethiopians have fled in search of safety within the country, and almost 60,000 across the border into Sudan.

"Several camps and settlements hosting Eritrean refugees have been attacked or destroyed, further displacing tens of thousands within Ethiopia."

UNHCR welcomed the Ethiopian government's speed in identifying new sites to settle displaced refugees, and said it was aiming to get 20,000 refugee children back into school.

In eastern Sudan, the agency aims to build more durable shelters and improve the provision of health care and education.

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