Study: Sinking ground in parts of Chesapeake Bay area will worsen flooding from rising sea levels and storm surges

Peer-Reviewed Publication

VIRGINIA TECH

 

IMAGE: PROJECTED INUNDATION AREA FROM BOTH SUBSIDENCE AND SEA LEVEL RISES UNDER VERY LOW GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION SCENARIO AT YEAR 2030, 2050, AND 2100 (TOP PANELS, PANELS (A), (B), (C), RESPECTIVELY). THE BOTTOM PANELS (D), (E), (F) HIGHLIGHT ZOOMED-IN INUNDATION FROM SEA LEVEL AND SUBSIDENCE AT 2100. view more 

CREDIT: IMAGES BY SONAM FUTI SHERPA FOR VIRGINIA TECH.

New research by Virginia Tech scientists shows that sections of the Chesapeake Bay are sinking at rates of nearly a quarter an inch — or 7 millimeters — a year. Further, up-to-date knowledge of where the ground in the Chesapeake Bay area is sinking and by how much is not included in the official planning maps that authorities use to assess the local flooding risk from rising sea levels, the researchers said.

This poses a significant challenge to present and future management efforts as it could under or overestimate flooding risk to coastal communities along the stretch of Virginia shoreline, said Manoochehr Shirzaei, an associate professor of radar remote sensing engineering and environmental security in the Department of Geoscieces, part of the Virginia Tech College of Science, and a member of the Virginia Tech National Security Institute.

The new findings from the Virginia Tech Earth Observation and Innovation Lab appear in the Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth, with scientists having measured how much the land along the Chesapeake Bay's shoreline has sunk using interferometric imaging with synthetic aperture radar from Earth orbit to detect elevation. The latter technique can measure year-to-year changes in local ground elevation as small as a millimeter, said Sonam Futi Sherpa, a doctoral student in the Department of Geosciences and lead author of the study.

The study uses data from 2007-20. The researchers further estimated potential inundation through the 21st century coming from land elevation changes, sea level rise, and storm surge.

"Although we found that most of the bay is sinking by less than 2 millimeters a year, in several areas, we discovered subsidence rates of 4 to 5 millimeters per year and more,” Sherpa said.

In addition to Sherpa and Shirzaei, Chandrakantha Ojha of the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research contributed to the study.

The region, of course, hosts the largest naval base in the world, Naval Station Norfolk, and has a dense population of more than 1.7 million people alongside wildlife, Shirzaei said. Its attraction as a tourist destination is also among the highest in the state.

Sherpa further points to Chesapeake Bay's Hampton Roads, which includes Norfolk, Newport News, and Virginia Beach, as hot spots of land subsidence occurring at a relatively high rate, exacerbating the effects of sea level rise and storm surge. Located in the bay midway between Montross and Reedville near the Potomac River, the area is subsiding because of groundwater pumping and erosion, the study found.

The researchers said such activity is typical of most areas of land subsidence. Many hot spots are sites of anthropogenic activities such as groundwater pumping causing compaction of aquifer systems, while others are places where land is lost to erosion.

Projected Inundation area from both subsidence and sea level rises under very low greenhouse gases emission scenario at year 2030, 2050, and 2100 (top panels, panels (a), (b), (c), respectively). The bottom panels (d), (e), (f) highlight zoomed-in inundation from sea level and subsidence at 2100. Images by Sonam Futi Sherpa for Virginia Tech.

The researchers said state, county, and municipal administrations along the Chesapeake currently use maps prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to make plans for dealing with possible flooding. These maps show areas at risk based on rising sea level projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

When scientists examined different sea-level rise scenarios compounded with effect of land subsidence, they found that, for the Chesapeake Bay, by the year 2100, 454 to 600 square kilometers (282 to 373 square miles) face a risk of flooding for very low to very high greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Storm surges similar to 2003’s Hurricane Isabel's can increase the inundated area from 849 to 1,117 square kilometers (527 to 694 square miles) from 2030-2100 while considering a very high greenhouse gas emission scenario.

"There are many estimates and models for sea-level rise, but they all fall short because they don't take into account land elevation changes," said Shirzaei, who is also an affiliated member of the Global Change Center, part of Virginia Tech’s Fralin Life Sciences Institute. “When formerly dry land becomes flooded, it causes saltwater contamination of surface and underground water, and it accelerates coastal erosion and wetland losses.”

He added, “The flooding hazards maps of the Chesapeake Bay area need to be updated with the measurements of land elevation changes and updated projections of sea level rise.” Tom Allen, a professor of political science and geography at Old Dominion University, will do exactly that with the data provided by Sherpa and Shirzaei. Allen said the updated maps can be used by authorities to create effective adaptation strategies.

Sherpa added that sinking ground along the shoreline greatly magnifies the effects of sea level rise because both processes work together to worsen the situation. "The ground goes down, sea level comes up, and flood waters go much farther inland than either change would produce by itself," she said.

What is the long-term solution? The answers vary, Shirzaei said. “The growing risks in coastal cities pose a major challenge, and adaptation is to be expected. However, the solution varies from place to place and must be tailored to the individual situation,” he said. 

“Adaptation to relative sea level rises comprises three main categories of defense: protection, accommodation, and retreat. And coastal communities can choose and pick from a long list of options, such as upgrading protection facilities, such as dams, raising lands, maintaining and restoring wetlands protection, controlling subsidence, improving flood resiliency, selective relocation of important infrastructure, and installing flood warning systems.”

Related story

Critical observations of sinking coasts

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JOURNAL

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth

ARTICLE TITLE

Open Access Disruptive Role of Vertical Land Motion in Future Assessments of Climate Change-Driven Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Hazards in the Chesapeake Bay

Study explores ways to increase diversity in medical residency programs

Peer-Reviewed Publication

VIRGINIA TECH

 

IMAGE: STUDENTS FROM ACHIEVABLE DREAM VISIT THE LIFE-GUARD HELIPAD ATOP CARILION ROANOKE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL. ACHIEVABLE DREAM GIVES STUDENTS WHO ARE AT RISK OF FAILURE IN SCHOOL BECAUSE OF SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS A CHANCE TO SUCCEED. EXPOSING STUDENTS TO HEALTH CARE CAREERS EARLY ON CAN FOSTER A DESIRE TO PURSUE A PATH TO MEDICAL SCHOOL, RESIDENCY, AND BEYOND. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY RYAN ANDERSON FOR VIRGINIA TECH.

Leading national organizations focused on graduate medical education assert that losing the diversity gap is critical to ensure equity in medical education and health care quality. Nevertheless, evidence-based strategies and best practices to improve diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) in the biomedical workforce remain poorly understood and underused. 

“We need to meet the needs of the people,” said Jed Gonzalo, senior associate dean for medical education at the Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine (VTCSOM). “Diverse patient populations need diverse health care to help them meet their best outcomes.”

Gonzalo was one of eight medical professionals who recently took a deep dive into what 29 graduate medical education programs, also known as residency programs, are doing to increase their diversity. The group did a qualitative analysis of applications for the Barbara Ross-Lee, D.O., Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Award over a two-year period. The award, supported by GME’s governing body, recognizes exceptional DEI efforts in U.S. residency programs.

Based on a content analysis of these exemplary programs, the researchers identified 33 themes and placed them in broad categories such as recruitment, intentionally integrating DEI into the residency interview process, retaining residents who are underrepresented in medicine as faculty, using affinity groups as mentors.

“We have studies that show that minoritized individuals do better when they’re being taken care of by clinicians who look like them, have similar experiences, or even an understanding of what life is like for them,” said Azziza Bankole, professor of psychiatry and behavioral health, and chief diversity officer at VTCSOM. “Diverse learning environments help our trainees, our residents, our medical students, and students in other health professions as well.”

“The importance of diversity has to do with the quality of the learning environment,” said Arthur Ollendorff, associate dean of VTCSOM’s graduate medical education and professor of obstetrics and gynecology. “I believe that medical education is part of a social contract. It is our duty to train physicians who can meet the needs of their communities.”

As a physician for Carilion Clinic, Ollendorff is familiar with the health system’s educational mission that includes training of residents. Being immersed in intense clinical learning, residents are following the examples of their attendings who are doctors who have completed their training and often play an active role in the education of interns, residents, and medical students.

“The hope is that training in a setting that values diversity will make all trainees more in tune to the needs and best approaches to all the patients we serve,” Ollendorff said.

Recognizing the importance of DEI, VTCSOM has initiated numerous diversity programs in recent years, including MedDOCS, an after-school mentoring program for Roanoke high school students, Health Professions Enrichment Program, an educational outreach series for high-potential ninth and 10th grade students, the Diversity and Belonging series for students, faculty, and staff, and Mentoring Communities for faculty and students. In addition, the school partners with the Achievable Dream Academy, which gives students who are at risk of failure in school becuase of socioeconomic factors, a chance to succeed.  The diversity, equity, and inclusion website has a complete listing.

“A lot of great work is being done here at VTCSOM,” Gonzalo said. “We hope programs and sponsoring institutions will look at the list of strategies in our study and say, ‘We could do this or that,’ which is great. We hope the study will spark ideas. What I think is critical is that implementing strategies should be done with a systematic and thoughtful approach so that they are deep-rooted and enduring.”

The strategies and best practices identified by the research group are intended to give graduate medical education programs ideas and starting points for developing their own DEI initiatives. Their report appears in JAMA Network Open.

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JOURNAL

JAMA Network Open

The Lundquist Institute receives $100,000 from the Parsons Foundation to support the medical-financial partnership

Gift will directly fund the Benefits Explorer Tool (BET) to improve access to anti-poverty resources for low-income families

Grant and Award Announcement

THE LUNDQUIST INSTITUTE

 

IMAGE: MFP INCORPORATES A NEW WEB- AND PHONE-BASED TOOL, THE BENEFITS EXPLORER TOOL view more 

CREDIT: THE LUNDQUIST INSTITUTE

The Lundquist Institute announced today that it has received a $100,000 gift from the Parsons Foundation to support the Medical-Financial Partnership (MFP). The MFP addresses the health issues of poverty by investing in the financial capability and security of children and families from economically and socially marginalized communities. These are the same communities afflicted by the intertwined threats of racial economic exploitation and historical intergenerational trauma that drive deep inequities in long-term health outcomes. Funded through grants and private philanthropy, the MFP is at its core a health care innovation tailored to the needs of low-income families and focused on treating poverty as the pervasive health risk it is. 
The MFP incorporates a new web- and phone-based tool, the Benefits Explorer Tool (BET). The user-friendly BET is an outgrowth of the MFP’s four-year success of investing in the financial capability and security of children and families from economically and socially marginalized communities. The innovative approach of BET is designed to improve access more efficiently to public benefits and other anti-poverty resources for under-enrolled families.

"The Ralph M. Parsons Foundation is dedicated to improving the well-being of Los Angeles County residents. We are thrilled to support the Lundquist Institute's direct services offering personalized assistance that links underserved families to important financial resources and other public benefits that promote healthy lives," said Jennifer Price-Letscher, Parsons Foundation Interim President and CEO.

“We thank the Parsons Foundation for its generosity and vision in funding MFP’s BET tool,” said Lynne M. Smith, MD, Investigator at The Lundquist Institute and Chair of the Department of Pediatrics at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center. “This grant will help make it possible for our clinic to increase awareness and directly connect families whose children receive primary care to key public benefits during well child visits. This is a testament to the thoughtful care and planning that MFP placed into developing BET to ensure that it was both patient-centered and clinically transformative.”

UMD criminologist, Ph.D. alumnus find link between rising sea surface temps and piracy

New study sheds light on how climate change can impact maritime crime

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

 

IMAGE: GARY LAFREE, UMD DEPARTMENT OF CRIMINOLOGY AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE DISTINGUISHED UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR view more 

CREDIT: JOHN CONSOLI

Climate change has long been blamed for extreme weather, food shortages and related price increases, and now, it can also be blamed for some of the crimes currently happening in our world’s oceans and seas.

According to new research published in the American Meteorological Society's Weather, Climate and Society journal by criminology and criminal justice Distinguished University Professor Gary LaFree and former graduate student Bo Jiang, an Assistant Professor at the University of Macau, rising sea temperatures are having an impact on piracy-related crimes.

“When we think of pirates, a guy with a peg leg and a parrot comes to mind, but modern piracy is a much more sophisticated phenomenon,” LaFree explained. “Piracy is an attempt to illegally board a ship—at sea or in port—with the purpose of stealing property and taking hostages for some sort of financial gain. It’s like burglary in common law: Breaking into somebody's house with the plan to enrich yourself either directly by stealing materials of value, or taking hostages and bargaining for some sort of remuneration.”

Looking at 15 years of sea surface temperatures and maritime piracy data from the South China Sea and the waters that border East Africa, LaFree and Jiang found that rising sea surface temperatures caused an increase in piracy attacks in East Africa due to decreased fish production, and a decrease in piracy attacks in the South China Sea due to increased fish production. The researchers explain that in some parts of the world, there are species of fish that do better when temperatures increase, like fish in the South China Sea, and others that do worse, like in the waters around East Africa.

“These results suggest that as climate change continues, its impact on violence and criminal behavior will likely be complex, with increases and decreases depending on the specific situational context and the rational choices changing sea temperatures generate,” Jiang said.

To LaFree, the findings also add to our understanding of who criminals are—or can be.

“Crime is much more of a dimmer switch than an on-off switch; these fishermen drift into crime when the economy is bad and they drift out of it when they're able to. This sort of hard dichotomy between criminals and noncriminals is way more porous,” he said.

The results also demonstrate how serious an impact offenses in these areas alone can have on our world economy.

“A huge proportion of all the world's trade comes through these areas; in terms of total value, we’re talking billions and billions of dollars, so if left unchecked, piracy in especially a few of these narrow straits and bottleneck areas where pirates tend to head can have a huge economic impact,” LaFree added.

Through a new Grand Challenges Individual Project Grant, LaFree and Jiang plan to do a deeper dive into the relationship between climate change and crime by collecting sea surface temperature data from 109 countries with coastlines and seeing how rising temperatures impact acts of political violence, and more specifically, acts of terrorism.

“The proposed research will tell us the extent to which climate change may alter the socio-political and environmental situations where terrorist organizations can proliferate, rise and grow, as well as offer insights into the individual decisions to engage in terrorism,” LaFree concluded. 

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JOURNAL

Weather Climate and Society

DOI

10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0147.1 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Climate Change, Fish Production, and Maritime Piracy

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

25-Apr-2023

Disclaimer: AAAS and E

New pancreatic cancer research could boost survival rates

Treatment combining radiation and immunotherapy offers hope for a stubborn disease

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO ANSCHUTZ MEDICAL CAMPUS

A unique treatment combining radiation and immunotherapy can eradicate pancreatic tumors while stopping the cancer from spreading, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Colorado Cancer Center.

The study, published today in the journal Cancer Cell, offers new hope to those with this often deadly disease.

“This is the first time we’ve seen the eradication of a pancreatic tumor that suggests the cancer cell has memory, meaning we can stop the disease from coming back,” said lead author Sana Karam, MD, PhD, member of the CU Cancer Center at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus. “Ultimately, this could alter the way doctors treat pancreatic cancer patients in the near future.”

They hope to conduct clinical trials using this therapy.

The research, which used animal models, focused on pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, which accounts for 90 percent of pancreatic cancer cases. Karam and her colleagues found that radiation and a new immunotherapy can induce a significant systemic memory immune response resulting in an anti-tumor effect achieving eradication, even after being rechallenged.

They hope this finding will improve survival rates for a disease that has not historically responded to immunotherapy.

According to Karam, combining the two therapies allows them to focus on eradicating ‘bad’ T-cells within the immune system.

“When a disease is metastatic, you want to recognize and attack the cell type everywhere, from the pancreas to the liver, blood and more,” she said. “This approach does exactly that in our study.”

The researchers used a novel variant antibody complex (aPD1-IL2v) that allowed for the expansion of tumor-antigen specific T-cells. This alone had a significant effect on local and distant tumor growth. It was further enhanced by adding radiation therapy.

Similar immunotherapy research aimed at other cancers is being conducted in Europe. But this is the first time it’s been combined with radiation therapy and focused on pancreatic cancer tumors.

“In just one radiation session, we saw a remarkable immune response that could change how we treat pancreatic cancer patients,” Karam said. “I’ve never been more hopeful about the possibility of improving the survival rate for this disease.”

About the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

The University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus is a world-class medical destination at the forefront of transformative science, medicine, education and patient care. The campus encompasses the University of Colorado health professional schools, more than 60 centers and institutes and two nationally ranked independent hospitals - UCHealth University of Colorado Hospital and Children's Hospital Colorado - that treat more than two million adult and pediatric patients each year. Innovative, interconnected and highly collaborative, the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus delivers life-changing treatments, patient care and professional training and conducts world-renowned research fueled by over $690 million in research grants. For more information, visit www.cuanschutz.edu.

 

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JOURNAL

Cancer Cell

ARTICLE TITLE

Simultaneous targeting of PD-1 and IL2R with radiation therapy to inhibit pancreatic cancer growth and metastasis

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

27-Apr-2023

Newly developed hydrogel nanocomposite for the mass production of hydrogen

A new type of floatable photocatalytic platform composed of hydrogel nanocomposites efficiently proceeds hydrogen evolution reaction, even by using plastic wastes

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE FOR BASIC SCIENCE

 

IMAGE: A. FLOATABLE PHOTOCATALYTIC PLATFORMS ARE COMPOSED OF BILAYER STRUCTURES, A PHOTOCATALYTIC LAYER, AND A SUPPORTING LAYER. B. THE POROUS STRUCTURE OF THE PLATFORM. C. THE POROUS STRUCTURE OF THE PLATFORM FEATURES FLOATABILITY. view more 

CREDIT: INSTITUTE FOR BASIC SCIENCE

A research team led by Prof. HYEON Taeghwan at the Center for Nanoparticle Research within the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) in Seoul, South Korea has developed a new photocatalytic platform for the mass production of hydrogen. The group’s study on the photocatalytic platform led to the development of a floatable photocatalytic matrix, which allows efficient hydrogen evolution reaction with clear advantages over conventional hydrogen production platforms such as film or panel types.

The importance of alternative energy has recently increased due to global challenges such as environmental pollution and climate change. Among several candidates for alternative energy sources, hydrogen energy harvested by photocatalysis is particularly highlighted for its sustainable green energy production. Accordingly, much research and development have been made to enhance the intrinsic reaction efficiency of photocatalysts. However, research on the form factor of photocatalytic systems, which is critical for their practical application and commercialization, has not yet been actively explored.

Usually, current systems fix catalyst powder or nanoparticles onto different surfaces, such as particulate sheet-type, film-type, and flat panel-type platforms, which are submerged under water. They also face practical issues such as the leaching of catalysts, poor mass transfer, and reverse reactions. They also require additional devices to separate and collect the generated hydrogen from water, which adds to the complexity of the device and increases the costs.

The team at the Center for Nanoparticle Research within the IBS, led by Prof. Hyeon, designed a new type of photocatalytic platform that floats on the water for efficient hydrogen production. This new platform has a bilayer structure, which consists of an upper photocatalytic layer and a lower supporting layer (Figure 1A). Both layers are composed of a porous structural polymer that endows high surface tension to the platform (Figure 1B). In addition, the platform is fabricated in the form of cryo aerogel, a solid substance filled with gas inside, exhibiting low density. As a result, this elastomer-hydrogel embedded with photocatalysts can float on water (Figure 1C).

This platform exhibits clear advantages in the photocatalytic hydrogen evolution reaction: first, light attenuation by water is prevented, resulting in efficient solar energy conversion. Second, the product, hydrogen gas, can be easily diffused into the air, avoiding reverse oxidation reactions and preserving high reaction yield. Third, the water can be easily supplied to the catalysts located inside the elastomer-hydrogel matrix due to its porosity. Last, catalysts are stably immobilized inside the matrix for long-term operation without leaching issues (Figure 2).

The researchers experimentally proved the superior hydrogen evolution performance of the floatable platform, compared to that of the conventional submerged platform (Figure 3A, B). Furthermore, the scalability of the platform, which is essential for potential industrialization, was also demonstrated under natural sunlight. It was confirmed that about 80 mL of hydrogen can be produced by the floatable photocatalytic platform using copper single atom and titania catalysts with an area of 1 m2 (Figure 3C-E). Even after 2 weeks of operation in seawater containing various microorganisms and floating matter, the hydrogen evolution performance of the platform was not compromised.

Prof. Kim states, “The proposed platform can even produce hydrogen from solutions that dissolve household waste, such as polyethylene terephthalate bottles. Consequently, the platform can be a solution for recycling wastes, which contributes to an environment-friendly society.”

Notably, this study presents a generalized platform for efficient photocatalysis that is not just limited to hydrogen production. It is possible to replace the catalytic component for various desired uses, without changing the floatable aerogel material properties of the overall platform. This guarantees the wide applicability of the platform to other photocatalytic reactions, such as oxygen evolution reaction, hydrogen peroxide production, and generation of various organic compounds.

“This study makes great progress in the field of photocatalysis and showcases the potential of green hydrogen production at sea with world-class performance. The distinctive material features, high performance, and broad applicability in the field of photocatalysis of our platform will undoubtedly open a new chapter in alternative energy,” remarked Prof. Hyeon.

Floatable photocatalytic platforms have clear advantages in hydrogen evolution reaction, in terms of efficient light delivery, facile gas separation, enhanced surface tension, stable catalyst immobilization, suppressed back-oxidation (reverse reaction), and facile supply of water

A, B. Hydrogen evolution performance of the floatable platform, compared to submerged one. C. Hydrogen production by floatable platform with an area of 1 m2. D. Optical image of the arrayed floatable platform with an area of 1 m2. E. Schematic illustration of the hydrogen production facility with the floatable platform with an area of 1 m2.

CREDIT

Institute for Basic Scienc

JOURNAL

Nature Nanotechnology

DOI

10.1038/s41565-023-01385-4 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Floatable photocatalytic hydrogel nanocomposites for large-scale solar hydrogen production

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

27-Apr-2023

Mandatory vs recommendation: Norway assessed mobility during times of mandatory and non-mandatory COVID-19 measures 

Using mobile phone data provides mobility metrics to assess the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on mobility

Peer-Reviewed Publication

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DISEASE PREVENTION AND CONTROL (ECDC)

 

IMAGE: THE PERCENTAGE OF MOBILITY CHANGE IN EACH OF THE THREE MOBILITY METRICS FROM THE WEEK BEFORE TO THE WEEK AFTER DIFFERENT INTERVENTION DATES IS SHOWN FOR SELECTED REGIONS. THE INTERVENTION DATES INCLUDE A CONTROL TIME POINT IN NOVEMBER AND THREE INTERVENTIONS IN DECEMBER, WITH ONLY NON-MANDATORY MEASURES ON 3 DECEMBER, MOSTLY NON-MANDATORY MEASURES ON 9 DECEMBER AND MANDATORY FOLLOW-UP MEASURES ON 15 DECEMBER. view more 

CREDIT: EUROSURVEILLANCE

Norway, like other Nordic countries, widely utilised non-mandatory advice during the COVID-19 pandemic in the attempt to reduce social contacts among people and occasionally turned to obligatory measures, specifically during peaks in transmission. In comparison with stricter interventions, non-mandatory measures are usually less invasive and costly and have been recommended in previous pandemics, including influenza.

Mobile phone data provides mobility metrics

In their research article published in Eurosurveillance today, Kamineni et al. compare the impact on mobility when previously non-mandatory interventions to curb COVID-19 transmission were turned into obligatory non-pharmaceutical (NPI) measures. [1]

Based on mobile phone data from the largest Norwegian operator, the authors investigated the effects of interventions that regulated e.g. use of face mask, teleworking, physical distancing, alcohol serving, events, schooling, gyms, restaurants as well as shops and businesses between January 2021 and January 2022. They collected three mobility metrics per day per person for each of the 365 municipalities of Norway: (i) radius of gyration, (ii) time spent away from home and (iii) the maximum distance from home.

The analysis looked at effect of three national interventions in December 2021 that ranged from recommendations to work from home and reduce close contacts beginning of December to regulations of events, banning serving of alcohol after midnight and a face mask requirement in indoor environments about one week later and ultimately making working from home mandatory, banning alcohol serving, imposing digital teaching for universities and a continued face mask requirement as of 15 December 2021. Kamineni et al. investigated the impact of the measures on national level, in the bigger cities Oslo, Stavanger, Tromso, Trondheim and Bergen and in less populated regions of Norway. 

Non-mandatory: less invasive and costly but sufficient
On national level, mobility declined following initial non-mandatory measures – all further measures, including compulsory ones as of mid-December 2021, yielded only comparatively small effects on radius and maximum distance away from home.

Based on their data, the authors found that people in Norway travelled shorter distances from home after non-compulsory measures were introduced. In urban areas, the distance people travelled decreased further when the measures became mandatory. Travelling times also became shorter, and this effect was stronger following the legal mandate than after non-compulsory interventions - in both rural and urban regions.

Stricter metre rules and reopening of gyms, restaurants and shops prompted changes in people’s behaviour.

The authors note that “interestingly, after follow-up mandates, all metrics decreased in urban areas, while only time travelled decreased in rural areas” and that “interventions affected distance and time travelled separately. Nationally, follow-up mandates impacted time more than distance, and these metrics were influenced by different interventions stricter metre rules and reopening of gyms influenced distance, while reopening of restaurants and shops and easing physical distancing affected time.”

Kamineni et al. argue that their findings give valuable insights on the choice of NPI and whether to make them mandatory or not in regional or national settings, making the case that “less invasive and costly non-mandatory measures may be sufficiently effective for rural areas in the case of Norway.”  

 

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References/notes to editors:
[1] Kamineni Meghana, Engø-Monsen Kenth, Midtbø Jørgen E, Forland Frode, de Blasio Birgitte Freiesleben, Frigessi Arnoldo, Engebretsen Solveig. Effects of non-compulsory and mandatory COVID-19 interventions on travel distance and time away from home, Norway, 2021.
Euro Surveill. 2023;28(17):pii=2200382
Available from: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.17.2200382

In their analysis, Kaminen et al. considered a NPI mandatory, when obligation to follow was based on a regulation or law while non-mandatory recommendations would not lead to any legal consequences in case of non-compliance

Limitations of the study

With the before–after analysis, potential confounders include temperature and weather. While the authors analysed mobility trends before interventions were enacted, there were no controls.
 

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JOURNAL

Eurosurveillance

DOI

10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.17.2200382 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Effects of non-compulsory and mandatory COVID-19 interventions on travel distance and time away from home, Norway, 2021

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

27-Apr-2023

US should begin laying the foundation for new and advanced nuclear reactors, says new report

New and advanced nuclear reactors could play an important role in helping the U.S. meet its climate goals, but a range of challenges must first be overcome, says a new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES, ENGINEERING, AND MEDICINE

WASHINGTON — New and advanced types of nuclear reactors could play an important role in helping the U.S. meet its long-term climate goals, but a range of technical, regulatory, economic, and societal challenges must first be overcome, says a new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Development, testing, and widespread deployment of these reactors could take several decades. The report makes recommendations for the U.S. Department of Energy, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, other federal and state agencies, and private industry to lay the groundwork required for advanced reactors to become a viable part of the U.S. energy system.

Currently, the U.S. electricity system includes large light water reactors (LWRs) that produce electricity for commercial use. LWRs use water to cool the reactor and moderate the speed of the nuclear chain reactions taking place. Many advanced reactor concepts use conventional fuels, materials, and manufacturing methods, but some also employ a wide array of new coolants, designs, fuels, materials, and technologies. Among these are modular LWRs that are smaller, simpler, and rely mainly on passive safety features. Other examples include reactors that use liquid metal, molten salt, or high-temperature gas as coolants.

The U.S. electricity system is already undergoing massive shifts, but economy-wide decarbonization efforts will span decades, and electricity demand is projected to continually grow over that period. Advanced nuclear technologies likely will not be able to markedly contribute to electricity generation until the 2030s at the earliest, the report says, but there are opportunities for them to compete with other energy technologies in the long term. Innovative ideas for reactors, if fulfilled, may provide on-demand power generation to complement variable sources of energy, such as solar and wind energy, and help decarbonize challenging industrial sectors by providing high-temperature heat for chemical processes, such as hydrogen production.   

Some advanced nuclear reactor concepts, due to their size or the way they are to be produced, offer new ways for nuclear power to be used, including:

• Major portions or even the entirety of the reactor system could be produced in factories, potentially reducing project costs and uncertainties and increasing quality.
• Existing power generation sites using fossil fuel (e.g., coal plants) could be repurposed for nuclear power generation.
• Small reactors or microreactors could be transported to meet off-grid emergency needs.
• Reactors could produce localized thermal energy for industrial applications that otherwise have hard-to-abate emissions because of high temperature requirements, such as cement, hydrogen, and steel production; for district heating (heat distributed through pipes to keep residences or businesses warm); or for desalination. 

“Our report shows new and advanced nuclear reactors could play an important role as the U.S. works to decarbonize the economy,” said Richard A. Meserve, Senior Of Counsel for Covington & Burling LLP, former chair of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and chair of the committee that wrote the report. “But there are significant hurdles that must be overcome to enable advanced nuclear reactors to succeed and reach commercial and globally competitive viability ― among them, economic challenges, technological challenges, regulatory changes, and societal acceptance.  If we want the ability to pursue this option, the U.S. should address these barriers now.”

Meeting the Technological Promise

There are many differences between nuclear reactors currently in use and proposed advanced nuclear reactors. For advanced reactors to be able to compete in a decarbonized economy, the report makes a range of recommendations, including:

• DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy should initiate a research program that sets aggressive goals for improving performance of fuels and materials used to build or operate reactors.
• The nuclear industry and DOE should fully develop a structured, ongoing program to ensure the best-performing technologies (as measured by technical, financial, regulatory, and social acceptance milestones) move rapidly through demonstration.
• DOE should expand its efforts in advanced construction technology research and development and make advanced construction technologies broadly available to reduce costs.
• Significant incentives, such as those that have nurtured solar and wind technologies, should be provided to enable the wide commercial deployment of advanced reactors. 
• Widespread deployment of advanced reactors will require more skilled workers. DOE should initiate a whole of government partnership, and work with labor organizations, industry, regulatory agencies, and other organizations to identify gaps in critical skills, and fund training and development solutions.

Policies and Regulations for Economic Competitiveness

Nuclear power reactors are tightly regulated by the NRC in all phases of their life cycle ― design, construction, operations, and decommissioning. The report says that the NRC must maintain its overarching commitment to safety, but regulations governing existing reactors are not suitable for advanced reactors, which could present novel regulatory issues, particularly reactors that use new coolants, have advanced safety capabilities, or are factory made or transportable. Congress should provide the NRC with more resources to enhance its capability to deal with these differences and create efficient, effective, and flexible regulatory processes.

In addition, differing regulatory requirements between countries can discourage international sales, which may be an essential part of making nuclear vendors’ business plans competitive. The report urges broader international regulatory harmonization, in the short term through bilateral arrangements ― such as the U.S. agreement with Canada ― and in the long term through engagement with the International Atomic Energy Agency and Nuclear Energy Agency.

There are considerable regulatory and economic risks that can deter potential investors in the advanced nuclear industry, including uncertainties around whether the NRC might reject a new approach, impose new design or operational requirements, or bring about added costs through delayed action. Some regulatory risks are particularly difficult for industry to evaluate because there is often no past guidance that would apply to novel reactor designs, so more regulatory certainty will help industry and its investors make informed plans.

Federal and state governments should take actions that enable the industry to be cost-competitive with other low-carbon energy technologies, including through tailored financial incentives, the report says. The U.S. should also foster a healthy international market for advanced nuclear technologies, and better equip itself to swiftly negotiate nuclear cooperation arrangements. The report recommends steps for Congress and the federal government to help U.S. vendors compete with state-owned and state-financed vendors in the international energy market.

Assurance of Safety, Security, and Safeguards

New deployment scenarios can introduce new physical and cyber risks, which should be dealt with through safety, security, and safeguards requirements as appropriate. NRC staff have proposed significant modifications to the physical security requirements for nuclear facilities to take into account novel designs and operations of advanced reactors. However, clear regulatory guidance is still needed, the report notes, and the NRC will need sufficient expert staff to provide this guidance.

Earning Societal Acceptance

While nuclear power must be safe and secure, it must also be accepted by society and by the communities in which new reactors are built. The advanced nuclear industry should adopt consent-based approaches for new facilities, adjusted for place, time, and culture, the report says. Consent-based processes ― still nascent in the industry, where plans for new reactors are typically only reviewed after design and siting are completed ― should include participatory site selection methods and incorporate more value-focused thinking. Industry should adopt research-backed approaches to community engagement, enduring through the life of a project, and these should be treated with the same seriousness as technological development. The report charts a path forward for better engagement, recommending a set of best practices for the industry.

A 2022 National Academies report, written by a separate committee, discusses nuclear fuel cycle options for both existing and advanced reactors, nonproliferation and security considerations for these fuel cycles, as well as issues related to the waste associated with advanced nuclear reactors.

This study, undertaken by the Committee on Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States, was supported by a gift donation by James J. Truchard, a National Academy of Engineering member, and by the U.S. Department of Energy.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions related to science, engineering, and medicine. They operate under an 1863 congressional charter to the National Academy of Sciences, signed by President Lincoln.

Contact:
Joshua Blatt, Media Relations Officer
Office of News and Public Information
202-334-2138; e-mail news@nas.edu

 

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DOI

10.17226/26630