Wednesday, July 19, 2023

How a drugstore staple, made in an Indian factory and tainted with an antibiotic-resistant superbug, slipped past the FDA.

ByPeter Robison and Priyanka Pulla
July 17, 2023 

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a rod-shaped bacterium a fraction of a millimeter long. In a petri dish, it smells of corn tortillas. It’s opportunistic, invading any tissue that’s already compromised, and can be lethal: Among the especially vulnerable, the mortality rate can be as high as 50%. But perhaps the bacterium’s most notable characteristic is how hard it is to kill. The hardiest of pseudomonas are antibiotic-resistant superbugs that rage on no matter what drugs doctors throw at them.

In May 2022, an unusually virulent strain appeared for the first time in the US, in a hospital patient in Los Angeles. Over the summer three more local cases emerged. As doctors tried to fight the bug, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began to track it, reviewing every location and item the patients had in common. Pseudomonas aeruginosa can spread even among people who never came into contact with the original source. The bacteria showed up in Connecticut, then Utah. It was found in people’s lungs and in their blood. It took eight months for the agency to determine the culprit: over-the-counter eyedrops. The two affected brands were widely available for less than half the price of better-known ones. They weren’t counterfeit. They weren’t imported illegally. They were made in India and sold by two US distributors in boxes stamped with the drug inventory numbers that the Food and Drug Administration issued.

The eyedrops from EzriCare LLC and Delsam Pharma LLC were recalled after the pseudomonas contributed to four deaths, 18 cases of vision loss and scores of infections. The particulars are horrific. In four people the bacteria spread so quickly that doctors had to remove their eyeballs to stop it. Others had their corneas turn into cloudy abscesses of scar tissue. Some endured migraines, discharges from their eyes and light sensitivity that kept them in the dark for days and even months.

Attached File

What made the outbreak possible is a gaping hole in the FDA’s supervision of over-the-counter medicines. They’ve long been among the agency’s lowest priorities—the assumption being that even if they don’t work, they probably won’t kill anyone. These drugs are essentially produced and sold on the honor system. A company doesn’t have to prove to the agency that its medicine is safe or effective or that it’s being made in proper conditions. There’s no testing involved; no inspection required. A company must attest only that it’s using approved ingredients and complying with good manufacturing practices. Basically, paperwork.

It turns out, the contaminated eyedrops were sold by two inexperienced entrepreneurs who didn’t know each other but had found the same tiny company in Chennai, India, to make the supposedly sterile medicine. Ezriel Green is a wholesale drug distributor in New Jersey; Kuppusamy Arumugam is a pharmacist in the Bronx, New York. Neither of them ever sold a drug of their own before the eyedrops. Records show that their manufacturer, Global Pharma Healthcare Pvt Ltd., had never exported any medicine of any kind to the US. Eyedrops must be made with a guarantee that they’re sterile, a demanding and expensive process. Global Pharma was allowed to ship hundreds of thousands of bottles of eyedrops without ever having the FDA inspect its factory.

The eyedrops were marketed as being free of preservatives. But that meant they also lacked the chemicals to prevent the growth of bacteria. Most manufacturers sell such drops only in single-use vials or specially designed multiuse ones to maintain sterility. Both cost more. Global Pharma’s preservative-free drops came in regular, cheaper-to-make bottles containing multiple doses.

The FDA’s automated process for listing an OTC drug didn’t flag that crucial flaw. Nor did it spot the other warning sign: the insubstantial backgrounds of the manufacturer and the distributors. Jeremy Kahn, an FDA spokesperson, says the agency deactivates listings that don’t meet its requirements and is working on ways to improve its monitoring. He says the agency’s “highest priority is protecting public health,” which includes recommending and coordinating voluntary recalls, sending public notifications, and inspecting and holding discussions with the companies. As for the contaminated eyedrops, he says the agency is monitoring the situation.

The generic drug industry has stretched across the world to produce cheap drugs. Regulators haven’t kept up: In some places rules aren’t enforced; in others they’re inadequate. The result is shortages and recalls and health risks. The FDA announced more than 900 recalls in 2022, triple the number four years ago. India, which supplies one-fifth of the world’s generic drugs, has come under increasing scrutiny for quality problems. Manufacturing lapses in generic cancer medicines, for instance, led to shortages that left patients waiting for potentially life-saving treatments this year. The World Health Organization linked the deaths of more than 60 children in Gambia last year to toxic medicinal syrups made in India.

How U.S. officials cracked mystery of eyedrops that blinded people across country



By — Mike Stobbe, Associated Press
Health Feb 28, 2023


NEW YORK (AP) — The patients’ eyes were painfully inflamed. They could sense light but could see almost nothing else. A doctor called one case the worst eye infection he’d ever seen.

It was the beginning of a national outbreak caused by an extremely worrisome bacteria — one that some say heralds an era in which antibiotics no longer work and seemingly routine infections get horribly out of hand.

At last count, 58 Americans in 13 states have been infected, including at least one who died and at least five who suffered permanent vision loss. All have been linked to tainted eyedrops, leading to a recall.

READ MORE: This researcher builds ‘cool stuff for blind people.’ He’s also trying to help transform society

Experts marvel at how disease detectives pieced together the case: Patients were scattered across the country. The illnesses occurred over the span of months. The infections were found in different parts of the body — in the blood of some patients, in the lungs of others.

But scientists also shudder, because they have long worried common bacteria will evolve so that antibiotics no longer work against them.

“This really shows us that it’s not something theoretical and in the future. It’s here,” said Dr. Luis Ostrosky, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston.

This account is drawn from phone and email interviews with U.S. disease investigators, health officials in three states and regulators in the U.S. and India.

___

The investigation started in May in Los Angeles County, California. A patient who’d recently been to an ophthalmologist came in with a bad eye infection. A month later, local health officials got a second report. Another bad eye infection, same eye doctor.

Two more cases were reported in the county before the summer was over. The patients’ eyes were inflamed with heavy yellow pus that obscured most of the pupil. Among the four, two had complete vision loss in the affected eye.

The hospital that reported the first infection determined it was caused by a bacteria called Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The institution, which was equipped to do advanced genetic testing, quickly realized the bacteria had a rare gene that protected it from the effects of commonly used antibiotics.

It was an early break for investigators, said Kelsey OYong, of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.

OYong and her colleagues knew they were dealing with a scary germ, and they notified the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Pseudomonas infections are not new. Drug-resistant strains of the bacteria cause more than 30,000 infections annually among hospitalized patients in the U.S. and more than 2,500 deaths, the CDC said. It can spread through contaminated hands or medical equipment, and is particularly dangerous to fragile patients who have catheters or are on breathing machines.

But the California infections were in patients’ eyes, not more common spots like the blood and lungs. Also, the lab analysis determined the infections were caused by a Pseudomonas germ that could resist just about every antibiotic.

The only thing that worked was a newer antibiotic called cefiderocol, administered by IV.

___

Over the summer, Pseudomonas outbreaks were seen at long-term care facilities in two other states.

In Connecticut, the first case was in June. Eventually, the bacteria was found in 25 patients from five nursing homes in different parts of the state, said Christopher Boyle, a spokesperson for Connecticut’s health department.

In Davis County, Utah, north of Salt Lake City, the first of six cases was reported to the CDC in August. While the patients had the bacteria, none actually got sick, said Sarah Willardson of the Davis County Health Department.

L.A. County health investigators thought the cases there might be due to some kind of equipment contamination at the eye doctor’s office.

But that suspicion faded in early October, when genetic testing showed the clusters in California, Connecticut and Utah were all caused by the same bacteria strain — a version of the germ that hadn’t been seen anywhere before.

“That made us start thinking that this was some kind of a product,” said Maroya Walters, the CDC official supervising the investigation.

___

As the year went on, other reports of drug-resistant Pseudomonas came in, including a Washington man who died with a bloodstream infection.

Given the initial cluster at the California ophthalmologist’s office, investigators suspected an eye care product was the culprit, though that hypothesis was complicated by the fact that the infections at the long-term care facilities were mainly found in the lungs.

But it wasn’t impossible. Tear ducts drain into the nasal cavity, which leads to the lungs and could provide a path to deep inside the body.

In early November, investigators determined most of the infected Connecticut patients had been given artificial tears, though it wasn’t clear who had been given which brand.

Then, on Nov. 9, a Florida hospital contacted the CDC to report bad eye infections connected to an outpatient clinic. A check of artificial tears brands used in Connecticut, Florida and Utah pointed to one common product: EzriCare Artificial Tears, an over-the-counter product marketed in the U.S. by New Jersey-based EzriCare LLC and made in India by Global Pharma Healthcare.

___

The Pseudomonas bacteria is “pretty much everywhere” in India and the drug-resistant germ is common in many hospitals, said Dr. Gagandeep Kang, who studies microbes in the Christian Medical College in the same state as Global Pharma’s factory.

In January, genetic sequencing confirmed the Florida cases were caused by the same bacteria strain as the clusters in California, Connecticut and Utah. On Jan. 20, the CDC urged doctors to avoid recommending the EzriCare product.

There was no recall or widespread public notice, however. Investigators had strong circumstantial evidence pointing toward the EzriCare drops, but didn’t get more conclusive proof until more than a week later after testing found the bacteria in seven open bottles of EzriCare Artificial Tears in Connecticut and New Jersey.

In early February, CDC officials issued a public health alert and the FDA recalled the EzriCare eyedrops and Delsam Pharma’s Artificial Tears, another product made by Global Pharma. Last week, the recall was expanded to include Delsam Pharma’s Artificial Eye Ointment.

Global Pharma didn’t respond to emailed requests for comment.

___

A month before the first recall, the FDA blocked imports of Global Pharma products.

FDA spokesperson Audra Harrison said the U.S. import ban was “unrelated to the outbreak,” and was instead based on the company’s “inadequate response” to a records request and problems with its manufacturing procedures. She wouldn’t say what those problems were.

The subsequent recall, she said, was recommended due to lack of microbial testing and issues with the product’s formulation and packaging.

The FDA, tasked with assuring the safety of drug products shipped to the U.S., has long struggled to inspect facilities in China and India that account for the vast majority of raw materials used in American medicines. A search of FDA’s online inspection database shows no records of agency staff visiting the plant.

Indian drug inspectors visited the plant and the country’s drug controller asked Global Pharma to stop making all products related to treating eye disorders until they finish their investigation, said P.V. Vijayalakshmi, the drug controller for southern Tamil Nadu state.

___

Ostrosky, the University of Texas expert, called the U.S. investigation “a public health victory” saying it shows that fighting drug-resistant bacteria requires international collaboration and investment. But he also said the case is disheartening.

An infection that’s usually easy to treat with common antibiotic eyedrops “has become an infection that can be deadly and has pretty much no treatment except one IV antibiotic,” he said.

Pseudomonas now joins a growing list of bugs — including bacteria that cause urinary tract infections — that are getting increasingly difficult to treat, Ostrosky added.

“It’s like a wave coming for us,” he said.

AP writers Matthew Perrone in Washington and Aniruddha Ghosal in New Delhi contributed.

'That's what solidarity is': This UPS worker fired back at a commenter who said drivers don't deserve $42/hour because it takes 'zero skill' — explains the real reason they could go on strike

Serah Louis
Wed, July 19, 2023 


UPS workers are prepared to strike come August if the company doesn’t meet their demands for better pay and benefits. But with the deadline looming, some Americans are now pushing back on whether the postal delivery workers are entitled to those higher salaries in the first place.

"No way you deserve 42 an hour as a delivery guy lol. Takes zero skill,” wrote a viewer on one of UPS driver Juan Trujillo’s TikTok posts.

Trujillo fired back in a viral video, claiming that even $42/hour isn’t enough, which is why full-time UPS workers will be getting a raise of around $1.50 this year. UPS typically adds a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to its wages each year in addition to any other base raises, but the company has yet to confirm a hike for this year.

“We’re not going on strike because the drivers aren’t getting a raise,” Trujillo continues. “We’re going on strike because the part-timers are only making $16 an hour, and that’s unacceptable.”

If UPS and union members don’t reach an agreement by Aug. 1, 97% of union members have voted to authorize a strike — which would be the first in 25 years for the postal delivery giant.

Why UPS workers may go on strike

The Teamsters union, which represents about 340,000 UPS workers, is calling for better benefits, pay raises and to ax the two-tier wage system for part-time and full-time workers.

Delivering packages can often be a physically demanding job and especially with temperatures this summer hitting record highs, the conditions can range from uncomfortable to unsafe. UPS has reported at least 143 heat-related injuries to the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration since 2015. In some cases, workers have been hospitalized, or even died.

A tentative agreement over air conditioning in delivery vehicles was reached in June, but negotiations fell apart last week, with each side accusing the other of walking away from the table.

On the UPS website, it says full-timers make $95,000 a year and part-timers earn $20 an hour on average after 30 days — but union leader Sean O’Brien told ABC News that’s “not telling the true story.”

O’Brien says full-timers work 60 to 65 hours a week, while part-time wages are actually closer to $16 an hour.

“UPS is selective. They pick and choose on who they're going to pay, what area, and they can raise the rates,” he says.

O’Brien says part-time workers are currently “working for poverty wages,” and his goal is to ensure UPS establishes a livable starting wage for these workers. The company reported over $100 billion in revenue last year, and O’Brien believes union members deserve to reap some of those benefits as well.

And many full-time workers agree. “I’ll sacrifice two weeks of work if [I have to] because that’s what solidarity is. That’s what we do,” Trujillo says in his video.

What a strike means for the economy


A 10-day UPS strike could cost the U.S. economy over $7 billion, with $4 billion in losses for consumers and small businesses, according to analysis from consulting firm Anderson Economic Group. This would also mark the most expensive strike in at least a century.

UPS makes up 24% of the market share by parcel volume, according to Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index. Competitor FedEx also revealed in an internal report obtained by NPR that, "In the event of a market disruption, no carrier can absorb all UPS volume.”

If a strike goes ahead, Americans can expect slower delivery times, supply chain disruptions and even higher shipping costs.

Ohio State University logistics professor Terry Esper also told Forbes that rural areas with limited delivery options and small businesses that can’t afford to switch providers will be hardest hit by the strike.

Esper says even if businesses do find another provider, since many are contracted to delivery companies, any last-minute switching to standard published rates could drastically push up costs — and likely result in those costs being passed on to consumers.

White House 'confident' UPS, Teamsters will reach agreement ahead of potential workers strike


Olivia Evans, Louisville Courier Journal
Wed, July 19, 2023 

UPS and Teamsters, the union representing nearly 340,000 UPS workers are trying to reach a new five-year labor contract before the current contract expires at midnight on July 31.

Earlier this month, the two sides departed the bargaining table without coming to a consensus on a new contract. Teamsters have repeatedly said they will strike starting Aug. 1 if a new contract is not ratified. In June, Teamsters passed a strike authorization vote, giving the union the ability to strike if and when they deem necessary.

On Sunday the Associated Press reported that International Brotherhood of Teamsters General President Sean O'Brien said he has asked the White House not to intervene in the dispute between UPS and the union.

Since June, the union has declared it will strike on Aug. 1 if a tentative agreement is not reached on a full contract before expiration on July 31 at midnight.

If Teamsters were to strike, it would be the largest single employer strike in U.S. history and would cause massive disruption to the supply chain and U.S. economy.

UPS supports the national and global economy. The company estimates it "transports more than 3% of global (gross domestic product) and about 6% of U.S. GDP daily," including everything from home-ordered Amazon packages to business shipments to medical necessities.

In an economy dependent on the logistics and shipping industry, a UPS employee strike could have drastic consequences. Customers could see slower delivery of goods to households and higher prices on products and shipping, according to the Associated Press.

Here's what we know about the federal government's involvement in the UPS and Teamsters dispute.

What is the White House saying?


Recently, O'Brien has started saying Teamsters would be willing to return to negotiations. He also recently asked President Joe Biden to not intervene between UPS and Teamsters negotiations.

"Anytime ... there are these discussions we want to ensure we're playing a constructive and productive role," said U.S. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday during a White House press briefing.

Jean-Pierre said the White House will continue to be in touch with both UPS and Teamsters and will "support any efforts to reach a solution."

"We are confident that both sides are going to come to an agreement," Jean-Pierre said.

Does the federal government have the power to intervene in a strike?

Yes.

Under the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947, the president could ask the attorney general to seek a federal court injunction to prevent or block a strike in court that was found to be endangering the public's health or safety. If the strike was found to endanger the public's health or safety, the two disputing parties could be ordered to reach a settlement within 60 days to resolve the dispute.

In 2002, then-President George W. Bush enacted the Taft-Hartley Act to stop an 11-day shutdown of 29 West Coast ports, the New York Times reported then.
Congress stopped the railroad strike in December. Can it do that with UPS?

In December, Biden signed legislation to prevent a strike by the railroad companies under the Railway Labor Act which also governs the UPS pilots and aircraft mechanics. At the time, President Biden warned a nationwide freight rail strike would be detrimental to the U.S. economy and would have triggered "a recession," USA Today reported.

Despite UPS having some of its employees governed under the Railway Labor Act, the current UPS dispute between the company and Teamsters does not fall under the Railway Labor Act.

USA Today White House correspondent Joey Garrison contributed to this report. Contact reporter Olivia Evans at oevans@courier-journal.com or on Twitter at @oliviamevans_

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: UPS workers strike: White House asked not to intervene in negotiations


US retailers push for deal in UPS-Teamster talks as deadline looms

Lisa Baertlein
Wed, July 19, 2023 

UPS Teamsters picket ahead of an upcoming possible strike in Brooklyn, New York

By Lisa Baertlein

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A U.S. retail industry group on Wednesday urged United Parcel Service and the Teamsters union to reach a labor contract deal and avert a strike that could result in billions of dollars of economic losses.

The world's biggest package delivery firm and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters have until midnight on July 31 to reach a contract deal covering some 340,000 workers that sort, load and deliver packages in the United States.

A key sticking point in the talks is pay increases for experienced part-time workers who are making roughly the same or even less than new hires because starting wages jumped due to the labor shortage in the last few years.

If a deal is not done by the deadline, UPS workers have vowed to strike.

Any disruption to the business of UPS would be broadly felt because the company handles about a quarter of the parcel shipments in the United States - including deliveries for online retailers like Amazon.com, high-value prescription drugs for doctors and hospitals, and inventory for millions of other large and small businesses.

A 10-day strike could cost the U.S. economy more than $7 billion, according to a recent estimate from Anderson Economic Group.

"Even the most robust planning won't shield retailers or consumers from the impact of shutting down a key component in the supply chain as we head full-steam into back-to-school and then holiday shopping seasons," the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) said.

Regardless of the outcome, UPS customers may face higher shipping rates.

"A new Teamsters deal could drive cost per piece (about) 2% higher than current expectations," Susquehanna analyst Bascome Majors said in a client note this week.

Shippers will end up absorbing that extra cost, said Alfredo Ortiz, CEO of the Job Creators Network, a conservative advocacy group started by Bernie Marcus, the co-founder of Home Depot.

"It gets passed on to customers. That's what we're really concerned about," Ortiz said.

(Reporting by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Chris Reese)

UPS pilots won’t fly if Teamsters strike

Eric Kulisch
Tue, July 18, 2023 

Two Airbus A300 freighters wait to be loaded at the UPS facility at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.
 (Photo: Jim Allen/Freightwaves)

The union representing UPS pilots says they will not cross picket lines if Teamsters drivers and package sorters walk off the job when the current contract expires Aug. 1, resulting in the immediate shutdown of the express logistics company’s global air operations.


UPS (NYSE: UPS) has 3,300 pilots who are represented by the Independent Pilots Association (IPA), a separate union from the Teamsters.

“If the Teamsters are on strike, we will honor that strike and we will not fly,” IPA spokesman Brian Gaudet told FreightWaves.

UPS pilots are allowed to honor primary picket lines and did that for 16 days during the Teamsters’ strike in 1997.

Even with freighters in service, a strike by 340,000 package car drivers, truck drivers and warehouse workers would effectively ground most UPS Airlines operations because there would be few, if any, personnel to load and unload aircraft, process packages and deliver them to and from airport facilities. UPS says it is training nonunion employees to handle packages in the event there is a labor disruption. Parcel consulting firm ShipMatrix estimates management could move about 22% of the 18.6 million daily parcels in its system through contingency plans.

The Teamsters union has a $300 million to $350 million fund to support workers with strike pay, but UPS pilots who don’t report to work will bear the burden on their own.

“We don’t have a strike fund. If you’re a UPS pilot and you’re being asked to not cross that picket line, that means you stay in your hotel, you don’t show up, you don’t fly and it’s on your nickel,” said Gaudet.

UPS pilots ratified a two-year contract extension last August.

Bascome Majors, a senior transportation equity analyst at Susquehanna International Group, estimated in a research note that the Teamsters’ fund could last at least two weeks. Part-time workers would end up making about $210 less than their normal weekly pay, while full-timers would make about $1,450 less, which “could splinter enthusiasm for an extended strike and hurt Teamster solidarity.”

Barring a solidarity action by pilots, UPS likely would use a skeleton fleet to protect some international and overnight flights to its Worldport hub in Louisville, Kentucky, said Derek Lossing, founder of Cirrus Global Advisors, in an interview.

FedEx Express (NYSE: FDX) is the only air carrier that can realistically absorb UPS overnight, next-day package volumes, he explained. FedEx will try to take on as much of that business as it can because it is lucrative. Shippers that have a big relationship with UPS and only tender small volumes to FedEx are likely paying $6 to $8 more per parcel. FedEx can realistically handle 5% of UPS overnight volumes, Lossing added.

UPS management and the Teamsters union are at an impasse over wages and other economic issues after previously agreeing on other terms.
Rich labor deal poses risks

Analysts say UPS is in a bind because it already is experiencing some shipment diversion to rival FedEx and could drive away more customers if it sharply raises rates to help cover the cost of an overly generous Teamster deal.

A new Teamsters contract could drive the cost per parcel about 2% higher than current expectations and cut a dollar from UPS’ earnings per share next year, said Majors. Parcel consultants are forecasting that shippers can expect rate hikes of 6% to 10% in 2024, before a Teamsters contract is finalized.

Majors predicts the Teamsters’ contract will boost wages by 18% for part-time workers and 7% for full-timers, with another 7% increase in costs for inflation and other factors.

Many businesses that felt burned by UPS during the last three years, when demand soared and the carrier didn’t bend on applying steep rate hikes, could be willing to look for alternative carriers.

“If UPS gives away too much in labor costs, it’s going to be forced to raise rates to shippers and significantly lose a share of their wallet because the 12- to-18 month outlook doesn’t justify price increases,” wrote Lossing, a former logistics manager at Amazon who helped the online retailer build out its private cargo airline and international last-mile delivery network, on LinkedIn.

For every 10% increase in labor costs UPS negotiates, it will lose 4% of its average daily volume over the next two years, according to modeling conducted by Cirrus Global Advisors. If UPS tries to maintain margins by passing on costs to customers, a portion of its parcel business will spill to FedEx, the U.S. Postal Service, logistics companies that specialize in downstream parcel injection into the postal system, regional parcel carriers and Amazon’s own delivery network. FedEx would pick up about 180,000 daily ground packages, followed by Amazon (175,000), regional carriers (70,000), with the U.S. Postal Service and postal consolidators taking the remainder. If the Teamsters union wins a 20% increase in compensation, UPS could lose 140,000 daily packages to regional competitors.

Labor is UPS’ largest expense item, consuming nearly half of global revenue. According to UPS, delivery drivers on average earn $95,000 per year and part-timers earn $20 an hour, plus health and pension benefits. With FedEx and Amazon using an independent contractor model with nonunion workers for final-mile delivery, UPS has to control labor costs or risk “a slow spiral” that makes it uncompetitive, Lossing said.

Online shoppers will experience slower deliveries if there is a UPS strike and e-commerce companies will be forced to cancel free shipping and increase shipping charges, he predicted.

Companies that haven’t integrated other carriers besides UPS into their transportation planning systems could face significant operational and financial impact from a potential strike, logistics experts say.


UPS is massive. Here's a breakdown of how a strike could impact delivery globally.


Olivia Evans, Louisville Courier Journal
Tue, July 18, 2023 

UPS worker Geraldine Dawson holds up a sign while wearing a t-shirt with the logo 'Pay Up' in the style of United Parce Service as she and members of Teamsters Local 89 began a practice strike outside Worldport, the largest sorting and logistics facility in America Wednesday morning in Louisville, Ky. June 28, 2023

UPS and Teamsters, the union representing nearly 340,000 UPS workers are trying to reach a new five-year labor contract before the current contract expires at midnight July 31.

Earlier this month, the two sides departed the bargaining table without coming to a consensus on a new contract. Teamsters have repeatedly said they will strike starting on Aug. 1 if a new contract is not agreed upon. In June, Teamsters passed a strike authorization vote, giving the union the ability to strike if and when they deem necessary.

In Louisville, Kentucky, and nationwide, Teamsters Union barns have been hosting practice pickets ahead of what is anticipated to be the largest single-employer strike in U.S. history.

As of July 5, no additional negotiations between the union and the company have been scheduled.

UPS employs about 25,000 people in Louisville, one of the metro's largest employers, and close to 500,000 nationwide. Louisville is home to UPS Worldport, the largest sorting and logistics facility in America, and the UPS Airlines headquarters.

UPS supports the national and global economy, and the company estimates it "transports more than 3% of global (gross domestic product) and about 6% of U.S. GDP daily," including everything from home-ordered Amazon packages to business shipments and medical necessities. Employees at UPS Worldport play a major role in the company's economic impact, sorting more than 400,000 packages hourly.

Teamsters Local 89, represents roughly 10,000 UPS employees in Louisville. Stephen Piercey, the communications director for Teamsters Local 89, previously said a UPS strike would be a 24/7 operation at Worldport with union members rotating picket line shifts.

The more than 3,000 UPS Airlines pilots who are members of the Independent Pilots Association would support the picket line, just like it did in 1997, the last time UPS experienced a strike.

Domestically, UPS has five total airport hubs, including Worldport and excluding the company's Miami location which primarily serves Central and South America. UPS operates roughly 1,200 domestic and 780 international flight segments daily.

If a strike were to occur at UPS on Aug. 1, it could have a major effect on operations in Louisville. Here are five visuals that illustrate the scope of how a UPS strike could impact the company's domestic airline hubs and just how big UPS Worldport is.

Where are the domestic UPS Air Hubs located?

There are five domestic UPS Air Hubs. The hubs, located in Louisville, Kentucky, (UPS Worldport), Philadelphia, (UPS East Coast Hub), Dallas (UPS Southwest Hub), Rockford, Illinois (UPS Rockford Regional Hub) and Ontario, California, (UPS West Coast Hub), are all cities that have international airports.

How many daily flights does each hub have?

Across the globe, UPS serves more than 750 airports. Domestically, the five air hubs alone are responsible for more than 570 flights daily, almost 50% of all UPS domestic flight segments each day.

How big is each UPS domestic air hub?


Louisville's UPS Worldport facility is the company's largest air operations facility globally. In the U.S., Worldport is more than six times larger than the company's next largest domestic air hub in Ontario, California.

How many packages does the facility handle?


In 2022, UPS delivered an average of 24.3 million packages daily for a total of 6.2 billion packages delivered last year. For the company to deliver that quantity of packages to the more than 220 countries and territories it serves, the domestic air hubs are heavily relied on to sort and load packages quickly. At UPS Worldport, 416,000 packages are handled hourly.

What geographic area does the air hub serve?


Across the company, UPS services more than 220 countries and territories globally. The only air hub to provide service to all of these locations is the Worldport facility. The other four domestic hubs serve roughly 10-20 states each, with some overlapping areas of service.

Contact reporter Olivia Evans at oevans@courier-journal.com or on Twitter at @oliviamevans_.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: How a UPS Teamsters strike could impact delivery globally
Teamsters issue strike notice at Yellow

Yellow faces bankruptcy: Who is in line to benefit?


Todd Maiden
Tue, July 18, 2023 

The Teamsters say the carrier has until Sunday to pay up. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Shortly after less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. said Tuesday it would go through with plans to defer required contributions to funds managed by Central States Funds, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters issued a strike notice.

The notice said a work stoppage could occur as soon as Monday.

“Yellow has failed its workers once again and continues to neglect its responsibilities,” said Sean O’Brien, Teamsters general president. “Following years of worker givebacks, federal loans, and other bailouts, this deadbeat company has only itself to blame for being in this embarrassing position.”

On Monday, Central States issued a delinquency notice to plan participants working at Yellow (NASDAQ: YELL) operating companies YRC Freight and Holland. The letter said the companies had deferred health and welfare and pension contributions due this past Saturday and would do the same for payments due August 15.

“The Company advised Central States Funds that it would defer payment of health and pension contributions for June (due July 15) and July (due August 15) to preserve liquidity as it worked to obtain meetings with the IBT [International Brotherhood of Teamsters] as well as secure additional financing,” a Tuesday evening statement from Yellow read.

The combined payments total $50 million for the two-month period.

A recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed Yellow had in excess of $100 million in cash as of June 30.

Yellow has said it will repay the amounts with interest in the future.

If unpaid, the carriers’ participation in the pension plan would be terminated on Sunday and health care claims incurred by employees after Saturday would not be paid.

Employees have the option to pay for health care out of pocket. In a separate notification, Central States said the cost is $471.86 per week through July 29. The amount increases to $507.08 per week after that. Payments must be received by August 23.

Yellow and the Teamsters have been unable to reach an agreement on operational changes that the carrier says are necessary for it to remain in business.

The Teamsters statement said the company has until Sunday to make the payment.

“Yellow has a responsibility and obligation to workers. Our members should not suffer because of management’s incompetence and financial irresponsibility,” said Fred Zuckerman, Teamsters general secretary-treasurer. “The Teamsters are working with our local unions, and we will continue to regularly update members as this situation unfolds.”


Yellow not paying — yet — even as potential strike looms


Todd Maiden
Tue, July 18, 2023

Teamsters strike could happen as soon as Monday. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. issued a statement Tuesday evening saying it would defer its required contributions for June and July as planned, potentially resulting in a strike by some of its Teamsters workforce.

Central States Funds, which manages health and welfare and pension funds for Teamsters at Yellow (NASDAQ: YELL) operating companies YRC Freight and Holland, issued a delinquency notice to plan participants Monday evening. The notice showed the carriers’ participation in the pension plan would be terminated Sunday and health care claims incurred after Saturday would not be paid.

The letter said the company withheld the June payment and was planning to withhold the July payment. Central States estimated payments for the two periods to be more than $50 million.

A separate letter from the Teamsters on Monday advised the impacted local unions to demand payment by Friday or risk a work stoppage on or after Monday. The protocol is part of the parties’ collective bargaining agreement, which requires the union to give the employer 72 hours’ notice of a strike authorization.

“The Company advised Central States Funds that it would defer payment of health and pension contributions for June (due July 15) and July (due August 15) to preserve liquidity as it worked to obtain meetings with the IBT [International Brotherhood of Teamsters] as well as secure additional financing,” a Tuesday evening statement from Yellow read.

Yellow said the two months of deferrals would equal “approximately $50 million dollars” and reiterated that it had only deferred one of the two payments thus far.

“The company intends to repay the funds with interest immediately upon securing additional financing and has asked the funds to discuss acceptable terms,” Yellow’s statement read.

A recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed Yellow had in excess of $100 million in cash and cash equivalents as of June 30.

Plan participants have the option to pay for health insurance out of pocket, Central States advised. The health coverage costs $471.86 per week through July 29, increasing to $507.08 per week through July 2024, the notice stated. Payments must be received by Aug. 23.

Roughly half of Yellow’s Teamster employees are covered by Central States.

Asked about the likelihood of a work stoppage if the payment isn’t made, Yellow declined further comment.

Yellow and the Teamsters remain at odds over proposed operational changes, which the carrier maintains are required for its survival.
U$ CHILD LABOR KILLS
16-year-old boy dies in accident at a Mississippi poultry plant


Laura Strickler and Didi Martinez
Updated Tue, July 18, 2023

A 16-year-old boy from Guatemala died as a result of an on-the-job accident at a poultry plant in Mississippi, authorities said Tuesday.

It happened at about 8 p.m. on July 14 at the Mar-Jac Poultry plant in Hattiesburg, Forrest County deputy coroner Lisa Klem said.

Workers under the age of 18 are not allowed to work in poultry plants because it’s deemed to be too dangerous and therefore a violation of child labor laws.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration and the Labor Department’s Wage and Hour Division have launched investigations into the incident, a spokesperson said. Any company found to be in violation could face a federal fine of more than $30,000 per incident.
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The death was caused by equipment at the plant, Klem said, adding that the results of an autopsy will be released Wednesday.

Duvan Tomas Perez. (via Facebook)

A worker who was on duty at the time of the accident spoke of hearing the boy screaming for help, but it was already too late.

“Two times he began to scream, ‘Help! Help!’” the worker said.

“I knew he had died,” the worker added.

The victim, identified by local authorities and a family member as Duvan Tomas Perez, was a middle school student who arrived in this country from the town of Huispache about six years ago.

“We’re very sad,” said the relative, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they face a pending immigration issue. “He was generous, smiley and very fun and very responsible at work.”

Joe Colee, the manager of the Mar-Jac facility, said in a statement that “our employees are our most valuable asset and safety is our number one priority."

"We strive daily to work as safely as possible and are truly devastated whenever an employee is injured," he added.

Colee also acknowledged the OSHA investigation and said the company is cooperating fully.

“Any issues identified in the investigation will be corrected immediately," Colee said.

The incident marked the second time in two years a plant worker died from injuries sustained in an accident.

The Mar-Jac poultry plant in Hattiesburg, Miss. (Google maps)

In May 2021, an employee was killed when he got pinned "partially under" a machine after it snagged his sleeve, according to OSHA records.

OSHA fined Mar-Jac $27,306, but the company contested it and the case remains ongoing.

Debbie Berkowitz, former OSHA official from the Obama administration, said the company has a "horrible safety record" and previously "fought to prevent OSHA from looking for safety violations after previous serious injuries."

An OSHA enforcement record from October 2021 notes that inspectors who went to the company’s Georgia location were unable to complete an inspection because they were denied entry.

Mar-Jac did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the 2021 death.

The latest incident comes as the Biden administration is cracking down on child labor violations involving migrants.

NBC News reported last month that a federal investigation into Guatemalan children working in the U.S. in violation of child labor laws has expanded to include meatpacking and produce firms that have allegedly hired underage migrants in at least 11 states.





Dark matter power: James Webb telescope may have proven the existence of giant dark stars

Matthew Rozsa
SALON
Sun, July 16, 2023 

An illustration of a supermassive black hole at the center of a galaxy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Since 2007, astronomers have proposed the existence of a weird type of star: one powered by the heat of dark matter. In cosmology, dark matter is a difficult thing to explain because we literally don't know what it is. We can't see it, hence the name "dark," but without it factored into our equations of the universe, things just don't add up. Learning how certain so-called "dark stars" form would be a major win for better understanding our place in the cosmos. Now, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) may have just proven that dark stars exist.

The ancient universe was very different than it is today. Some astronomers believe that before our solar system existed — indeed, before our galaxy was formed — dark stars were abundant. According to this theory, dark stars would have been fueled by large quantities of dark matter that would generate heat. This heat in turn would prevent dark stars from turning into modern stars — the bright, burning kind fueled by nuclear fusion — and, instead, to become enormous clouds of molecular hydrogen and helium.

If these dark stars still exist today, they would be too cold and dark to be easily detected. Only their gamma ray, neutrino and antimatter emissions would reveal their existence, as might perhaps the presence of cold molecular hydrogen gas. A new study in the journal PNAS suggests that, thanks to the power of the James Webb Space Telescope, we may have identified three entities that might very well be lingering dark stars.

Theoretical physicist Katherine Freese, coauthor of the paper and a physics professor at both the University of Texas and Stockholm University, has been pursuing different ways to detect dark matter since her career began in the '80s. In a 2008 paper in the journal Physical Review Letters, she and her colleagues proposed a "new phase of stellar evolution," in which the first stars in the universe are much cooler and powered by the annihilation of dark matter.

One of the leading theories about dark matter is that it's composed of a type of particle known as a WIMP, or Weakly Interacting Massive Particle. When two WIMPs collide, they can annihilate each other, transforming into other particles. This would generate energy that is different from the fusion process that powers modern stars (including our own), in which hydrogen atoms combine under extreme heat and pressure to form helium. However, until the James Webb telescope came along, there has been no direct evidence supporting this theory about dark stars.

"Nothing has been proven for sure by our paper," Freese explained to Salon in an email, but it is some of the strongest evidence for dark stars to date. Back in 2007, Freese and her fellow coauthor Cosmin Ilie (then her graduate student at the University of Michigan) determined what a dark star would look like in the JWST. Once the telescope had enough data to test their theories, Freese and Ilie began sifting through the new information.

"JWST has found roughly 700 high redshift objects (i.e. from very early in the Universe)," Freese said. "Of these, one of their instruments has been able to measure spectra (i.e. the intensity at different frequencies) for 9 of them, thereby for sure proving that they are indeed from the early Universe."

Five of those nine produced useable data, and from there the researchers studied four of them as JADES objects, which stands for the James Webb Advanced Extragalactic Survey. In the end, Freese said, they determined that "three of them are a good match to our predictions for dark stars."

Those three objects include JADES-GS-z13-0, JADES-GS-z12-0 and JADES-GS-z11-0. The authors ruled out the possibility that their readings were somehow messed up by a low redshift contaminant, and they similarly found "smoking gun" features that their previous research had anticipated would signify the presence of dark stars. The study concludes with a bold proclamation: "The confirmation of even a single one of those objects as a Dark Star (with detailed NIRSpec spectra) would mark a new era in astronomy: the observational study of DM–powered stars."

Want more health and science stories in your inbox? Subscribe to Salon's weekly newsletter The Vulgar Scientist.

"The discovery of a new type of star, made of hydrogen and helium but powered by dark matter, would be a huge advance," Freese added, echoing the enthusiasm in her paper. "As yet it is not possible to distinguish dark stars from early galaxies; as yet both are possible explanations for the data. Better spectra in the future will enable discovery of a helium line in the data — that would be a smoking gun for dark stars."

The research team — which included Freese, Ilie and Jillian Pauline from Colgate University —suggests that these dark stars would not be lit by nuclear fusion, but rather would be much more massive than most stars, so large they could even resemble galaxies from Earth-based telescopes. The researchers also argue that the dark stars collapse into supermassive black holes when they get older, which would explain why there are so many black holes in the universe.

This is hardly the first ancient celestial discovery that would have been made possible by the JWST. Speaking with Salon earlier this week, NASA official Dr. Michelle Thaller explained why she is particularly fond of some "splotches" that may be among the oldest known objects in the universe.

"The Big Bang was only about 13.8 billion years ago. So we're looking back to the very, very early youngest galaxies here," Thaller told Salon at the time. "The thing that blows my mind about these splotches is that I never thought I would be able to actually see an image of this, when I was in astronomy grad school and we were learning about what happened in the very earliest part of the universe."

Freese also praised the JWST in her interview with Salon, making it clear that it alone was technologically advanced enough to acquire this data.

"JWST is the only telescope as yet capable of seeing far enough back in the universe to discover dark stars," Freese told Salon, adding that other telescopic instruments currently being developed may also serve that purpose, such as Roman and EUCLID.

"As yet all we know for sure is that objects have been found in JWST that are the earliest ever to form in the universe," Freese concluded. "We don't know anything more about their past evolution, until we know for sure what these objects are."
China Warns Youth Unemployment to Worsen After Hitting Record

Jill Disis and Phila Siu
Sun, July 16, 2023 


Wall Street Cuts China Growth Forecasts as Economy Disappoints


(Bloomberg) -- China’s youth unemployment rate hit a record in June — marking a third consecutive month above 20% — and the government warned the situation may get even worse as new graduates start looking for work.

The jobless rate for people aged between 16 and 24 was 21.3% last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. That’s the highest on record in data that goes back to 2018, and NBS spokesman Fu Linghui said the number for July would likely be higher still.

Young people are finishing their studies and looking for jobs, adding to upward pressure on the unemployment rate, Fu told a press briefing Monday. The government has said it expects a record of nearly 12 million students to graduate from colleges and universities this year.

Youth unemployment has been at high levels for more than a year as Covid disruptions and a property slump add to existing structural problems in the labor market. The flagging recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy is now likely making employers reluctant to hire.

The youth rate continued to climb even as the national urban jobless rate remained at 5.2% over the past three months.

The central government attaches high importance to youth employment and has striven to put job creation for young people in a “more prominent position,” Fu said, adding that they were focusing their efforts on college graduates and young people starting their own businesses.

China still needs to work at stabilizing the employment situation, Fu said. He added that the youth rate will likely start trending back down after August.



China Evergrande Posts Losses of $81 Billion Over Two Years
CHINESE CAPITALI$M STILL CAPITALI$M

Bloomberg News
Mon, July 17, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- China Evergrande Group posted combined losses of more than $81 billion over two years as the world’s most-indebted developer releases its long-delayed results in a bid to resume stock trading and complete one of the country’s biggest debt restructurings.

The company reported a loss attributable to shareholders of 105.9 billion yuan ($14.8 billion) for the full year in 2022, adding to a 476 billion yuan loss the previous year, according to Hong Kong stock exchange filings late Monday.

The results underscore how much Evergrande has struggled amid a housing crisis that has rocked the world’s second-largest economy over the past two years after the government restricted borrowing by developers and consumers curbed home purchases. The earnings marked the company’s first two full-year losses since its 2009 listing.

Creditor Seeks Bankruptcy Of Evergrande Real Estate Group's Xian Unit

Evergrande’s revenue plunged by half in 2021 to about 250 billion yuan, before falling further last year to 230 billion yuan, largely missing the average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. While the loss narrowed last year from 2021, it represented a sharp reversal from a profit of almost 8 billion yuan in 2020.

The developers’ debt pile meanwhile has soared, with total liabilities reaching 2.58 trillion yuan at the end of 2021, or almost $360 billion. That figure fell slightly to 2.44 trillion yuan as of December last year.

The results give offshore bondholders something more to digest as they consider the company’s debt restructuring proposal. Evergrande said it seeks to convene meetings on July 24 and 25 with various classes of holders. In April, the developer said investors holding 77% of its Class A bonds backed the plan, while just 30% of Class C holders endorsed it.

Trading Resumption

Evergrande could be closer to resuming trading of its shares after reporting results, and there’s potential for approval of its debt-restructuring plan, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Daniel Fan and Adrian Sim. The firm’s tight cash of 4.3 billion yuan as of year-end, compared with short-term debt of about 587 billion yuan, could explain its imminent need for a debt plan, they said.


The results provide a long-awaited update on the financial status of the defaulted developer, whose woes have come to symbolize the crisis afflicting China’s slumping housing industry. New-home prices started declining again in June for the first time this year, underscoring the lack of buyer interest.

The financial results were audited by Prism, a small accounting firm named as Evergrande’s auditor in January after the resignation by PricewaterhouseCoopers. After working as Evergrande’s auditor since its 2009 Hong Kong listing, PwC resigned months after it was put under investigation by Hong Kong’s accounting regulator for its work on Evergrande and its services arm.

Prism added a disclaimer of opinion to Evergrande’s accounts, saying it’s unable to obtain sufficient and appropriate audit evidence.
Goldman Sachs lowers recession forecast as 'Goldilocks' debate heats up

Jobs data in a 'Goldilocks scenario' ahead of future rate hikes: Economist


Josh Schafer
·Reporter
Mon, July 17, 2023 

Goldman Sachs now sees just a 20% chance the US economy enters a recession in the next 12 months.

The firm had previously projected a 25% chance for a recession and remains well below the consensus estimates it cites from the Wall Street Journal that show a 54% chance.

"The recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Monday in a note titled "The Narrative Turns."

Investors have been closely watching for signs of whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will send the US economy into a recession. But Goldman Sachs' call comes after the latest string of economic data have depicted a resilient US economy. The June jobs report revealed a 3.6% unemployment rate that is still historically low while average hourly wages increased 4.4% compared to last year. Overall, the labor market added 209,000 nonfarm payrolls that month.

Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Prices Index report showed inflation increasing at its slowest pace since March 2021.

Hatzius specifically highlights the unemployment rate's decline, consumer sentiment hitting its highest levels in nearly two years and a reversal in an upward trend in weekly jobless claims as key signs of economic strength.

"We do expect some deceleration in the next couple of quarters, mostly because of sequentially slower real disposable personal income growth—especially when adjusted for the resumption of student debt payments in October—and a drag from reduced bank lending," Hatzius wrote. "But the easing in financial conditions, the rebound in the housing market, and the ongoing boom in factory building all suggest that the US economy will continue to grow, albeit at a below-trend pace."

Enter 'Goldilocks'

The positive economic outlook has strategists and economists more frequently referencing a fairy-tale ending to the Fed's rate hike path where inflation cools but the economy doesn't tip into a recession.

“'Goldilocks' has entered the room once more!" Evercore's lead strategist Julian Emanuel wrote in a note on Sunday in reaction to the recent positive economic data.

Emanuel is referencing the term Goldilocks economy, which is defined as a period of full employment, economic stability, and stable growth, according to Investopedia.

In other words, a Goldilocks economy is one that resembles the fairytale character's ideal porridge temperature. It's not too cold or too hot, but rather just right.


A miniature Goldilocks and the Three Bears set on display at the Miniatura - Dolls' House and Miniatures show at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. (Photo by Aaron Chown/PA Images via Getty Images)

But not all economists see the outlook into 2024 as totally rosy, with many still believing some level of a recession is coming at the start of next year. And Emanuel concedes that could be the case as well.

"While the 'Three Bears' (Recession) may not 'enter the house' for months to come, even Goldilocks' curls are subject to wilting in 2023’s record summer heat," Emanuel wrote.

The holes in the strong economy argument center around what could develop over the next several months. While 3% inflation is a notable increase, it's not the Fed's targeted 2%, and core inflation, which eliminates the volatile food and energy categories, is sitting at 4.8%.

And even stocks could be getting "too hot," if earnings season sparks a further push higher in the S&P 500 beyond the already 26% rally from the October lows.

Together, Emanuel points out that the picture is improving. And while the Goldilocks scenario is in play, it might be too early to call the porridge just right for now.

Josh is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.
Biden Gets Little Credit on Economy as He Touts ‘Bidenomics’




Gregory Korte
Wed, July 19, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden’s rebranding of his economic policies has largely failed to convince the public that key aspects of the economy are significantly improving, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Biden gets his best marks for his handling of jobs with the unemployment rate of 3.6%, with 47% approval and 48% disapproval. On his handling of infrastructure, his approval is 43% with 51% disapproving.

On inflation, his approval is just 34% with 62% disapproving, despite a cooling of price increases over the past year, with the consumer price index falling to 3%.


Monmouth calls the marks “mediocre to poor.” The numbers are statistically unchanged from last September, despite an effort from the White House to emphasize the real-world impact of Biden’s economic policies as the president looks toward reelection next year. Biden has embraced the term “Bidenomics,” to highlight his agenda in events and speeches across the country with voter perceptions of the economy are expected to be front-and-center in 2024.

“The president has been touting ‘Bidenomics,’ but the needle of public opinion has not really moved,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “Americans are just not giving him a lot of credit when it comes to the economy.”

Read More: Bidenomics Threatened by Trying to Meet Too Many Goals at Once

The partisan divide is stark, but independent voters lean more toward Republicans. They give Biden a 41% approval for jobs and unemployment, 37% for infrastructure, and just 26% for inflation.

Only three in 10 Americans say the US recovery from the pandemic has outpaced other countries, Monmouth said.

The poll of 910 adults was conducted July 12 to 17, with a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Why is Joe Biden so unpopular?

BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE WHINERS

Andrew Romano
·West Coast Correspondent
Updated Tue, July 18, 2023
“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories and debates.


Photo illustration: Jack Forbes/Yahoo News; photos: Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images


What’s happening


At this point in his term — about 910 days in — Joe Biden is the second-most-unpopular president in modern U.S. history. As of July 18, Biden’s average job-approval rating, according to the poll aggregators at FiveThirtyEight, is a paltry 39.1%; his average disapproval rating is 55.4%. That means his “net approval rating” is -16.3%, which is well “underwater,” as pollsters like to say.

Negative 16.3% is also really bad historically speaking. In fact, the only president with weaker numbers than Biden was Jimmy Carter, who hit -28.6% on day 910. At the time, just 29% of Americans approved of Carter’s performance on average, while 57.6% disapproved.
Why there’s debate

The U.S. was in much, much worse shape in 1979 — the year before Carter lost reelection to Ronald Reagan — than it is in 2023. Inflation had skyrocketed by 13.3% year-over-year; unemployment was stubbornly stuck around 6%; and the price of oil was in the process of doubling. Global shortages were so bad that Americans took to waiting in long lines — and occasionally punching each other — at their local gas stations.

In contrast, a gallon of gas today costs roughly 30% less than it did 12 months ago. At 3.6%, unemployment is on par with 50-year lows — and down by almost half since Biden took office. The U.S. economy added 4 million jobs over the past year. Inflation has cooled to 3% after peaking last summer at triple that rate. And America’s so-called misery index — a combination of unemployment and inflation — is lower now than it has been during 83% of all months since 1978. Recession fears are subsiding.

Meanwhile, as the Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher notes, illegal border crossings “have dropped by 70 percent in the last few weeks, according to the Department of Homeland Security, after Biden implemented a new border-management policy.” And “murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more than 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022,” according to crime data analyst Jeff Asher, writing in the Atlantic — a trend that could lead to “one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded.”

On top of that, Biden has delivered on several policy promises that poll pretty well with the public.

In the past, a president’s standing has tended to improve along with conditions in the country. Yet Biden’s numbers haven’t budged; since September 2022, his approval rating has remained mired around 40% while his disapproval rating has never broken out of the low to mid-50s.

The question is why. Is it something systemic — the way Americans are increasingly stuck in their own partisan media bubbles and unwilling to give presidents of the opposing party any credit? Is it the economy — the way certain indicators (such as real wages and the cost of services) have yet to fully recover even as the overall picture brightens?

Or is it Biden himself — his advanced age, his frequent gaffes, his ongoing family drama? And can the president turn things around in time for the 2024 election?
What’s next

Election season. Biden’s 2024 campaign spent a total of $1.1 million in the second quarter of this year, a “remarkably small amount that would put him behind several Democratic Senate candidates in terms of expenditures,” according to Politico. In comparison, Biden’s old boss Barack Obama spent about 11 times as much during the second quarter of 2011.

Biden, in other words, hasn’t really started selling himself to voters yet. Assuming the economy keeps improving, a national campaign — and the contrast it could create with the even-less-popular Trump, Biden’s likeliest GOP rival — might help the president become more popular over the next 16 months. In July 2011, Obama was underwater too; by Election Day 2012, his net approval rating had climbed to +5% or so.
Perspectives

Biden is unpopular because inflation pain is uniquely hard to shake

“One possibility is that, after enjoying largely stable prices for decades, Americans simply have little tolerance for inflation. Sure, their wages may have grown faster than prices since February 2020. But voters might be inclined to attribute their income gains to their own efforts, while blaming rising prices on the government’s mismanagement. They still have not adjusted psychologically to the jump in their grocery bills, and are irked each time they see the receipt and remember what things used to cost when Donald Trump was still president.” — Eric Levitz, New York magazine

Meanwhile, prices remain stubbornly high ‘where it counts’

“Although inflation has eased some, it hasn’t where it counts. Per the Wall Street Journal, prices ‘are stubbornly rising for what retail and food executives refer to as the center store,’ a euphemism for non-perishable staples from cereals to paper towels. In percentage terms, the cost of these goods is up by double digits across a variety of categories from just months or even weeks ago. And to judge by this report, many of the customers surveyed by Journal reporters went out of their way to note the tradeoffs they have had to make to stretch their dollars as far as possible. That’s an inconvenience that almost everyone feels and is liable to resent.” — Noah Rothman, National Review

Even if various indicators keep improving, it will take time for Americans to feel it

“Most Americans do not follow monthly inflation, crime, or border-crossing statistics. They experience inflation through more expensive bills, less abundant grocery purchases, and delayed big-ticket investments; crime through if-it-bleeds-it-leads local news broadcasts and major events like mass shootings; immigration through vivid images of people in migrant camps or the frequency with which they hear foreign languages spoken in their own communities. The positive statistics … need to be reflected over time in real-life experiences — and they need to persist until the moment voters decide how to vote.” — Ed Kilgore, New York magazine

Partisanship might have permanently changed how we grade presidents

“A survey question along the lines of, ‘Do you think economic conditions are good or bad?’ is answered more along the lines of, ‘Do you like the current president or not?’ In October 2020, just before President Trump lost re-election, Republicans' economic sentiment was 26 points higher than Democrats' in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. In February 2021, after Biden took office, Republicans rated the economy 28 points worse. A similar pattern occurred between the parties around the 2016 and 2008 elections, when partisan control shifted hands. We seem to be experiencing something similar right now.” — Neil Irwin, Axios

Americans are really ‘unhappy’ to boot

“Since 1990, the number of Americans reporting they feel ‘not too happy’ has been trending upward, particularly among those without a college education. The onset of the pandemic only exacerbated the growing national unhappiness. … Whatever the causes, it turns out that unhappiness is a very strong predictor of voting behavior. Being extremely unhappy more than doubled a person’s likelihood of voting for Trump in 2016, and the unhappiest counties were the Trumpiest.” — Deepak Bhargava, Shahrzad Shams and Harry Hanbury, Democracy Journal
WORSE OFF THAN BIDEN
Japan PM Kishida Approval Rating Drops on Fukushima, National ID Woes

Fumio Kishida
Prime Minister of Japan since 2021

Kanoko Matsuyama
Sun, July 16, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- Support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet fell, amid concerns over problems with a national ID card and the release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear site.

A survey carried out by Kyodo News found support had slumped by 6.5 percentage points on the previous poll to 34.4%, nearing the lowest level since Kishida took office in 2021. A separate poll by the Asahi newspaper found the approval rate had fallen 5 percentage points to 37%, also near a low of 34%. Another survey by the Sankei newspaper said the rate fell for a third straight month to 41.3%.


Polls cited reasons including continued troubles over the overhaul of a national ID card, and insufficient explanation over the release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear site.

Last month Kishida promised the public he would fix problems with the introduction of a national ID card that is set to be made essentially compulsory from next autumn, and has raised concerns about data breaches.

Unease over cases where people have found their ID cards linked to personal information about unrelated individuals has added to pressure on Kishida.

Meanwhile the plan for Tokyo Electric Power Co. to release the wastewater — equivalent in volume to about 500 Olympic-size swimming pools — has drawn fierce criticism from China and stirred wider regional concerns.

Around 80% of respondents to the Kyodo poll said the government’s explanation over the Fukushima wastewater was insufficient, while 74.7% said the current review of problems plaguing the national ID card will not resolve the issue.


Respondents also remained skeptical of the government’s measures to tackle the country’s falling birthrate. About 65% of those surveyed by the Asahi expressed disapproval, while a similar number said they didn’t expect the measures to improve the birthrate according to the Sankei survey.

All nationwide polls were conducted over the weekend via phone.

(Adds details from Sankei newspaper poll in second, eighth paragraph.)

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