Saturday, April 11, 2026

Exaggeration Of Real Ocean Climate Risks To Ireland Disrupts Future Planning

Cliffs of Moher in Ireland

April 11, 2026
By Eurasia Review

The real climate risks to Ireland from changes to the Atlantic currents that sustain our mild climate are obscured by exaggerated claims in media headlines and movies.

That’s according to Dr Gerard McCarthy, a Maynooth University (MU) oceanographer at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS) in the Department of Geography, who has led a new article for Nature Climate Change.

The latest paper is a retrospective on a landmark 2015 study led by Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, which identified long-term Atlantic cooling as a sign that the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) was weakening.

“The extreme climate collapse scenarios depicted in the Hollywood film, The Day After Tomorrow, and even in headlines of reputable mainstream media are often not grounded in scientific reality, but the genuine risks for Ireland are still significant and require proper planning,” said Dr McCarthy.

“It has happened that a new paper comes out, you get headlines saying the AMOC is going to collapse in the next few years. What we need to do is bring together a broader scientific voice to properly assess all the existing AMOC research literature, rather than having these seesawing headlines that concern and confuse our policymakers,” said Dr McCarthy.

Dr McCarthy added, “the study led by Stefan Rahmstorf—one of the most influential studies of AMOC—used changes in sea surface temperature records stretching back over a century to build its case. The records show that the stretch of ocean lying between Ireland and Canada is the only region on Earth that has systematically cooled while almost everywhere else warmed.”

This retrospective paper – co-authored by Professor Hans-Otto Pörtner of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven – considered the questions raised by the Rahmstorf paper and highlighted the need for a clearer scientific consensus, setting the stage for a larger international research project called the AMOC in Focus assessment report, which Dr McCarthy is co-leading and is sponsored by JPI Ocean and JPI Climate.

This project is a 60-scientist, 14-country initiative aimed at producing authoritative, usable guidance for policymakers in Europe and around the world.

Regarding what AMOC changes mean for Ireland’s future, Dr McCarthy said it’s likely we will see relative cooling in the Atlantic.

“Cooling is not really what I’m worried about. What concerns me is changes in precipitation patterns and storminess. A weakening AMOC tightens the temperature gradient that fuels Atlantic storms, like a taut elastic band – and then more of those storms get catapulted towards Ireland. Ireland sits right at the end of this system. We are hugely dependent on the heat it transports, so we need a clear consensus voice, grounded in science, to plan properly,” said Dr McCarthy.

Dr McCarthy is an expert on AMOC; the system of ocean currents, sometimes known as the Gulf Stream System, that is critical to Ireland’s temperate climate, despite it being at a similar latitude to southern Alaska.

He also co-chairs the ongoing AMOC in Focus assessment, which brings together leading scientists from across Europe, Canada, and the USA to assess the likelihood and risks of a potential disruption to the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system and its associated implications for climate, ecosystems, people, and the economy.

Exaggeration of real ocean climate risks to ireland disrupts future planning, says Maynooth University oceanographer

The real climate risks to Ireland from changes to the Atlantic currents that sustain our mild climate are obscured by exaggerated claims in media headlines and movies.

Maynooth University

The real climate risks to Ireland from changes to the Atlantic currents that sustain our mild climate are obscured by exaggerated claims in media headlines and movies.

That’s according to Dr Gerard McCarthy, a Maynooth University (MU) oceanographer at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS) in the Department of Geography, who has led a new article for Nature Climate Change.

The latest paper is a retrospective on a landmark 2015 study led by Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, which identified long-term Atlantic cooling as a sign that the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) was weakening.

“The extreme climate collapse scenarios depicted in the Hollywood film, The Day After Tomorrow, and even in headlines of reputable mainstream media are often not grounded in scientific reality, but the genuine risks for Ireland are still significant and require proper planning,” said Dr McCarthy.

“It has happened that a new paper comes out, you get headlines saying the AMOC is going to collapse in the next few years. What we need to do is bring together a broader scientific voice to properly assess all the existing AMOC research literature, rather than having these seesawing headlines that concern and confuse our policymakers,” said Dr McCarthy.

Dr McCarthy added, “the study led by Stefan Rahmstorf—one of the most influential studies of AMOC—used changes in sea surface temperature records stretching back over a century to build its case. The records show that the stretch of ocean lying between Ireland and Canada is the only region on Earth that has systematically cooled while almost everywhere else warmed.”

This retrospective paper - co-authored by Professor Hans-Otto Pörtner of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven – considered the questions raised by the Rahmstorf paper and highlighted the need for a clearer scientific consensus, setting the stage for a larger international research project called the AMOC in Focus assessment report, which Dr McCarthy is co-leading and is sponsored by JPI Ocean and JPI Climate.

This project is a 60-scientist, 14-country initiative aimed at producing authoritative, usable guidance for policymakers in Europe and around the world.

Regarding what AMOC changes mean for Ireland’s future, Dr McCarthy said it’s likely we will see relative cooling in the Atlantic.

“Cooling is not really what I’m worried about. What concerns me is changes in precipitation patterns and storminess. A weakening AMOC tightens the temperature gradient that fuels Atlantic storms, like a taut elastic band – and then more of those storms get catapulted towards Ireland. Ireland sits right at the end of this system. We are hugely dependent on the heat it transports, so we need a clear consensus voice, grounded in science, to plan properly,” said Dr McCarthy.

Dr McCarthy is an expert on AMOC; the system of ocean currents, sometimes known as the Gulf Stream System, that is critical to Ireland’s temperate climate, despite it being at a similar latitude to southern Alaska.

He also co-chairs the ongoing AMOC in Focus assessment, which brings together leading scientists from across Europe, Canada, and the USA to assess the likelihood and risks of a potential disruption to the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation system and its associated implications for climate, ecosystems, people, and the economy.

Journal

Nature

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Atlantic exceptionalism in the twentieth century

Article Publication Date

10-Apr-2026

UPDATE

Argentina eases glacier protection in $40bn mining push despite environmental fears

Argentina hosts nearly 17,000 glaciers covering about 8,484 square kilometres, and these formations play a critical role in regulating freshwater supplies. / CC / Vasiq Eqbal

By bnl editorial staff April 10, 2026

Argentina’s Congress has approved a reform to the country’s glacier protection law, relaxing restrictions on mining in high-altitude regions in a move aimed at attracting billions in investment, while drawing criticism from environmental groups concerned about water security.

Lawmakers on April 9 passed the bill with 137 votes in favour, 111 against and three abstentions, clearing the final legislative hurdle after Senate approval in February.

The measure, backed by President Javier Milei, modifies the 2010 Glacier Law to allow mining activity in certain periglacial zones previously off-limits.

The reform is expected to unlock significant capital flows into Argentina’s mining sector. Industry estimates suggest the new framework could attract more than $30bn in investment over the next decade, largely targeting copper, gold and silver projects, AP reported.

Local industry group CAEM, cited by Clarín, put the potential higher at about $40bn, with Economy Minister Luis Caputo projecting export revenues of up to $165bn by 2035.

Government officials and industry representatives argue the changes reduce regulatory uncertainty that had delayed large-scale projects. CAEM said the update “contributes to clarifying ambiguities that for years generated uncertainty,” while maintaining environmental protections. Mining Secretary Luis Lucero told local media that previous rules imposed “absolute prohibitions without room for exceptions or environmental impact studies,” discouraging investment.

Under the revised framework, only glaciers and landforms with a “specific hydrological function” will receive strict protection, with provincial governments tasked with defining and updating protected areas.

Argentina is home to nearly 17,000 glaciers covering about 8,484 square kilometres, and these formations play a critical role in regulating freshwater supplies. Environmental groups, including Greenpeace, have vowed to challenge the law in court, warning it could threaten water access and fragile ecosystems.

“If they refuse to listen in Congress, they will be forced to listen in the courts,” a coalition of advocacy groups said in a joint statement, announcing plans for legal action.

Critics, including opposition lawmakers, have described the reform as unconstitutional and argued it weakens national safeguards.

Experts also raised concerns about long-term environmental risks. Enrique Viale, president of the Argentine Association of Environmental Lawyers, warned the changes could affect water resources relied upon by a large portion of the population, while analysts highlighted the technical challenges of mining in periglacial zones.

According to environmental groups cited by The Guardian, glaciers support 7mn Argentines, or 16% of the population. Beyond feeding rivers, they buffer fragile ecosystems already imperiled by climate change. In the north-west, scientists have measured a 17% shrinkage over the past 10 years.

Despite the backlash, government officials maintain the reform strikes a balance between environmental protection and economic development. Milei said the measure would help boost investment, job creation and growth, positioning Argentina to capitalise on rising global demand for critical minerals such as copper and lithium. The country hosts the world's third-largest lithium reserves (4mn tonnes, behind Chile and Australia) and the sixth-largest copper reserves (9.1mn tonnes), according to the US Geological Survey.

Two new studies could change critics’ opinions about how many birds die from wind turbines

By Diana Resnik

Published on 11/04/2026 - EURONEWS

Critics say wind turbines endanger birds but two new studies have now analysed the risk in more detail. What they have found could change the debate.

Two recent studies have re-examined the risk of birds entering in collision with rotor blades of wind turbines.

Study by Vattenfall and Spoor shows not a single collision

The energy company Vattenfall and the tech company Spoor have analysed the extent to which wind turbines endanger birds at the offshore wind farm in Aberdeen. Over a period of 19 months - from June 2023 to December 2024 - video recordings of a wind turbine were made with the help of AI-supported analyses. A total of 2,007 bird flight paths near the monitored turbine were examined.

"By combining AI-powered detection and detailed expert analysis, we can replace assumptions with concrete observations and measure actual behaviour in the immediate vicinity of wind turbines," says Ask Helseth, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of Spoor.

The study found that there was not a single collision, "The results from Aberdeen Bay show that modern offshore wind farms can be operated with low risk to wildlife," says Dr Eva Julius-Philipp, Director Environment and Sustainability BU Wind at Vattenfall.

German Offshore Wind Energy Association (BWO) study: Over 99 per cent of migratory birds avoid wind turbines

A study by the German Offshore Wind Energy Association (BWO) also shows that migratory birds almost completely avoid wind turbines.

For one and a half years, researchers analysed over four million bird movements with the help of radar and AI-based cameras. The result showed that over 99.8 per cent of migratory birds reliably avoided the wind turbines.

"The new study shows that migratory birds avoid wind turbines. This confirms that the environmentally friendly expansion of offshore wind energy works in harmony with these birds and not against them," says BWO Managing Director Stefan Thimm.

"We used state-of-the-art methods. AI-controlled stereo cameras determined the flight activity in the rotor area, while a specialised bird radar recorded the migration patterns. By comparing the two data sets, we were able to precisely calculate avoidance rates," says Dr Jorg Welcker, Head of Research and Development at BioConsult SH GmbH & Co.

Conservationists nevertheless warn of risks

Despite the results, nature and animal protection organisations warn of the danger of wind turbines for many birds. The German Wildlife Foundation considers wind turbines to be an important tool for climate protection. Nevertheless, the organisation warns that wind turbines with their heavy rotor blades would threaten many native breeding bird species.

The German Wildlife Foundation expressly welcomes the expansion of renewable energies, but it must not be at the expense of species conservation. The urgency of biodiversity protection is in no way inferior to that of climate protection," says Dr Andreas Kinser, Head of Nature and Species Conservation at the German Wildlife Foundation.

In order to better protect birds, the study commissioned by the German Wildlife Foundation calls for clear minimum rules for nature conservation.

The most important basis for this is the so-called "Helgoland Paper" with recommendations from experts. It states, for example, that there should be a distance of at least 6,000 metres between the nest of a lesser spotted eagle and a wind turbine.

The study commissioned by the German Wildlife Foundation criticises the fact that the legal regulations for the protection of birds fall well short of the scientific recommendations.

The new studies suggest that many bird species collide with wind turbines less frequently than often feared. At the same time, the data situation has not yet been fully clarified. It therefore remains important to provide special protection for sensitive habitats during the further expansion of wind energy.

SoCal honeybees can fend off deadly mites

Hybrid species exhibits unusual defenses

University of California - Riverside

Wild hive — image:
Southern California hybrid honeybee hive hanging from a tree in the wild.
view more
Credit: Boris Baer/UCR

Southern California is home to a flying black and yellow treasure. While commercial honeybee hives nationwide are collapsing under attack from deadly parasites, a unique hybrid bee found only in this part of the state has demonstrated the ability to survive.

U.S. beekeepers reported losing up to 62% of their managed honeybee colonies in 2025, which threatens our food supply. The losses are driven by a combination of pesticides, climate pressure, habitat loss, and parasites, with the Varroa mite among the most destructive of these factors.

Varroa mites feed on honeybees’ fat body tissue, which weakens their immune systems, reduces their body weight, and shortens their lives. The fat body is an organ in bees that, if you were comparing it to human biology, performs the functions of the liver, pancreas, and immune system.

The mites also act as vectors for deadly viruses like Deformed Wing Virus and Acute Bee Paralysis Virus, which they transmit directly into a bee’s bloodstream. Beekeepers rely on chemical treatments for suppression that can lose effectiveness over time.

A new study from UC Riverside published in Scientific Reports is the first to show that a locally adapted population of honeybees can naturally and consistently suppress the mites.

“We kept hearing anecdotally that these Californian honeybees were surviving with way fewer treatments. I wanted to test them rigorously and understand the driving force behind what the beekeepers were seeing,” said Genesis Chong-Echavez, a UCR graduate student and lead author of the study.

Alongside entomologists from UCR’s Center for Integrative Bee Research (CIBER), Chong-Echavez monitored 236 honeybee colonies between 2019 and 2022.

The Californian bees were not entirely immune to the mites. However, colonies headed by locally raised Californian hybrid honeybee queens had about 68% fewer mites on average than colonies headed by commercial honeybee queens. They were also more than five times less likely to cross the threshold at which chemical treatments become necessary.

The bees in the study are not a commercial breed. They come from a genetically mixed population of honeybees established in Southern California, often from feral colonies living in trees. Recent research shows they are a hybrid population with ancestry from at least four honeybee lineages, including African, Eastern European, Middle Eastern, and Western European bees.

To more fully understand the bees’ resistance to the mites, the researchers also ran laboratory experiments with developing honeybee larvae. Varroa mites must enter brood cells to reproduce, so the team tested whether mites were equally drawn to larvae from commercial and Californian hybrid honeybee colonies.

They were not.

Mites were less attracted to the Californian hybrid honeybee larvae, especially at seven days old, the stage when mites are normally most likely to invade. The finding suggests the bees’ secret to fending off mites lies in early development, before any adult worker behaviors might come into play.

“What surprised me most was the differences showed up even at the larval stage,” Chong-Echavez said. “This suggests the resistance mechanism may go deeper than some kind of behavior and may be genetically built into the bees themselves.”

The findings could have implications beyond Southern California. Honeybees pollinate crops worth billions of dollars and are under growing pressure from multiple environmental stressors. The research suggests that part of the answer to improving honeybee health may lie in the biology of these bees.

Boris Baer, UCR entomology professor and co-author of the study, said the study also highlights the value of listening to working beekeepers.

“This question did not start in the lab. It started in conversations with beekeepers,” Baer said. “They were not just observers; they helped shape the questions behind this research.”

The researchers caution that the Californian hybrid honeybees are not entirely mite-free, and they do not suggest abandoning current management practices. Instead, they hope to learn which traits help these honeybees keep mite levels lower, and whether those traits could support future breeding programs or reduce dependence on chemicals.

Next, the team plans to investigate the genetic, behavioral, and chemical signals that may make the larvae less attractive to mites.

“At a time when pollinators are facing global decline, this work offers a hopeful message: solutions may already be emerging in the field, and we just need to understand them,” Chong-Echavez said.

A Varroa mite on a developing honeybee larva inside a brood cell.

Researchers inspecting honeybee colonies as part of long-term monitoring of Varroa mite infestations.

Credit

Genesis Chong-Echavez/UCR