Can US law stop Trump from withdrawing troops from Europe?

By Tamsin Paternoster

Published on 05/05/2026 - EURONEWS

A 2026 US defence law does not prevent troop withdrawals from Europe, but imposes consultations and justifications for major cuts that make such a move more difficult.

The US is set to withdraw around 5,000 troops from Germany, according to the Pentagon — a move that has raised concerns about a broader reduction of US forces across Europe

There are around 36,000 US troops currently in Germany alongside several key military hubs, including Ramstein Air Base, command headquarters and a medical centre that treated casualties from wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

An estimated 80,000 to 100,000 US service members are stationed across Europe, depending on rotations.

Such bases consolidate NATO's presence in Europe, hosting US forces and supporting joint training and operations with allies.00:01

The planned reduction of 5,000 troops amounts to around 14% of the total number of service members stationed in Germany. Those set to withdraw include a brigade combat team and a long-range fires battalion that the Biden administration planned to deploy when it was in power. They will now not be stationed in Europe.

Sean Parnell, spokesperson for the Pentagon, which houses the US Department of Defense, said that the decision follows a "thorough review of the Department's force posture in Europe and is in recognition of theatre requirements and conditions on the ground."

The announcement to withdraw troops — which came after German leader Friedrich Merz issued a rebuke of the Trump administration's actions in Iran — is in line with threats US President Donald Trump has made in the past.

At the end of his first term in 2020, the president announced plans to withdraw around 9,500 US troops from Germany. The idea faced backlash from Congress before it was ultimately halted by the Biden administration, which took power in 2021.

Despite criticism from Republican and Democratic lawmakers of his recent proposal to pull troops, Trump doubled down on Saturday, telling reporters in Florida that his administration would be "cutting a lot further" than the 5,000 already mentioned.

Is Trump able to wind down large numbers of US troops in Europe?

Several analysts and commentators have pointed out that a piece of US defence legislation, which became law this year, places restrictions on the Pentagon from making significant cuts to the number of troops deployed in Europe.

Under Section 1249 of the National Defense Authorisation Act for 2026, administrations are limited in how they can use Pentagon funds to cut troop numbers.

According to the law, the Pentagon cannot use its budget to reduce troop levels in Europe to below 76,000 for more than 45 days unless it meets certain conditions.

These include certifying that the cuts are in the interests of US national security, consulting NATO allies on the move beforehand and submitting a detailed report to Congress.

There is also a waiting period, meaning large reductions in troop numbers cannot take place immediately.

Beyond legal limits, analysts note that withdrawing troops from Europe is complex and expensive.

Analysis by Liana Fix from independent US think tank the Council on Foreign Relations, notes that US forces in Germany are embedded in global command structures, meaning that relocating them is logistically complex, costly and could weaken military readiness.

On the German side, officials have so far downplayed the immediate impact of losing 5,000 troops, with Defence Minister Boris Pistorius describing the move as "foreseeable", and pushing for Europe to take more responsibility for its own safety.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul and Chancellor Friedrich Merz equally projected calm in the wake of the news, with Merz telling a television interview on Sunday: "They are constantly redeploying their troop units worldwide, and we are affected by that too."

Critics and politicians pointed out that the threat of not stationing Tomahawk missiles on German soil poses a bigger risk than troop withdrawal, as it leaves Berlin with a missile gap that it could not replace on its own accord.

US Troop Withdrawal Dominates European Leaders’ Meeting

 May 5, 2026 

By EurActiv

By Pietro Guastamacchia

(EurActiv) — The announcement of US troop withdrawals from Germany overshadowed the start of the European Political Community (EPC) meeting on Monday, shifting the focus from a broad discussion on regional cooperation to the more urgent debate over Europe’s security dependence on the United States.

The meeting in Armenia’s capital marks the first occasion for European leaders to meet face-to-face following the White House’s sudden announcement.

Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative, said the timing of the announcement came as a “surprise,” though she said that the debate over the US presence in Europe was not new.

“It shows that we really need to strengthen the European pillar of NATO and that we need to do more,” she said, noting however that “the American troops are not in Europe only for protecting the European interests but also American interests.”

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen did not mention the US troops’ withdrawal but also called for greater European independence when it comes to defence.

“We have to step up our military capabilities to be able to defend ourselves,” she said, pointing to available funding and urging faster production of military capabilities.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told reporters that “Europeans have now received the message” that there was “disappointment from the United States” over their response to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Rutte also said that “the allies are now making sure that all bilateral agreements on bases are implemented.”

During the weekend, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz sought to play down the American announcement, telling ARD that “not everything we’ve been hearing over the last few days is actually new.”

“It might be a bit more exaggerated, but it’s nothing new,” he said.

The Italian government also sought to downplay concerns, stating that it sees “no immediate consequences” from the announcement. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will on Thursday visit Rome for a series of meetings at the Vatican. He is also expected also to meet Defence Minister Guido Crosetto.

The EPC summit also became an opportunity for key European and allied leaders to coordinate on Ukraine. Antonio Costa, European Council President, convened a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the sidelines of the gathering.

South Africa Cracks Down On IUU Fishing By Foreign Trawlers

May 5, 2026 
By Africa Defense Forum


Four Chinese fishing vessels in late February were found operating illegally inside South Africa’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and territorial waters without the required permits. The vessels repeatedly switched off their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders, a common practice among illegal fishing offenders.
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Owned by Shenzhen Shuiwan Pelagic Fisheries, the vessels were tracked 12 nautical miles from the KwaZulu-Natal coast and along the Eastern Cape coastline. The captains of the Zhong Yang 231, Zhong Yang 232, Zhong Yang 233 and Zhong Yang 239 each were fined about $24,118 before leaving the country.

“South Africa will not tolerate the unlawful use of its maritime zones,” Willie Aucamp, South Africa’s minister of forestry, fisheries and the environment, said in a report by the Business Insider Africa website. “We remain resolute in safeguarding our marine resources and ensuring that our ports are not perceived as ports of convenience. Compliance with our laws is non-negotiable.”

A similar situation unfolded in Japan in early February, when authorities seized a Chinese fishing vessel that was operating in Japan’s EEZ off Nagasaki Prefecture. The vessel tried to flee when ordered to stop for an inspection but was intercepted. There were 11 people aboard, including the Chinese captain, who was arrested, Tokyo’s fisheries agency said. The incident marked the first time since 2022 that the agency had seized a Chinese fishing boat.

“We will continue to take resolute action in our enforcement activities to prevent and deter illegal fishing operations by foreign vessels,” Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said in a BBC report.

Chinese vessels have operated illegally in African waters for decades, and Beijing’s distant-water fishing fleet, the world’s largest, is the world’s worst illegal fishing offender, according to the IUU Fishing Risk Index. Due mainly to illegal Chinese overfishing, West Africa up to an estimated $9.4 billion to illegal fishing annually and is considered the world’s hot spot for IUU fishing.

Between 2015 and 2021, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa and Tanzania lost up to $142.8 million annually due to illegal shrimp and tuna fishing, according to the World Wildlife Fund. Other catch taken from these waters include at least 56 species of sharks and rays and a variety of reef fish. According to TRAFFIC, a wildlife trade-monitoring organization, South Africa loses at least $60 million annually to abalone poaching alone. A type of marine snail, abalone is considered a delicacy in China, where criminal gangs regulate its trade.

In KwaZulu-Natal, residents of Kosi Bay have decried the presence of foreign trawlers, particularly those from China, that allegedly anchor in international waters by day and move closer to shore at night. The bay consists of four interlinking lakes that flow into an estuary before meeting the Indian Ocean.

The illegal trawlers commonly engage in bottom trawling, which involves dragging a net along the sea floor, indiscriminately scooping up all manner of marine life. This kills juvenile fish, leading to declining fish stocks, and destroys ecosystems. Locals complain that they have been excluded from stakeholder engagements, but there is hope that more collaboration between local fishermen and the government can resolve their issues.

“If we work together, we can’t stop because together we solve issues,” a community member told The Pulitzer Center. “When you look all around there in the sea, you [see] Chinese writing. … ”

Despite limited maritime surveillance capacity, South Africa’s government has taken steps to address IUU fishing. According to The Pew Charitable Trusts, the country is a global leader in adopting international agreements that target IUU fishing and vessel and labor safety. The agreements require inspections of fishing vessels in port that can help national authorities monitor and control IUU-related issues.

These agreements include:

1. The Port State Measures Agreement, the only binding international treaty specifically designed to eradicate IUU fishing. The agreement outlines best practices for port controls.

2. The Cape Town Agreement, which outlines standards for design, construction, maintenance and equipment for fishing vessels 24 meters or longer to ensure that ships are well built.

3. The Work in Fishing Convention No. 188, which addresses the occupational safety, health and medical care needs of workers on fishing vessels.


South Africa is working to develop standard operating procedures to enhance inter-agency information-sharing to notify relevant authorities of potential noncompliance with each treaty. The government also is encouraging safety and labor officials to wear body cameras during inspections to bolster real-time information-sharing between agencies. Fisheries inspectors are urged to ensure that a vessel’s markings or flag are consistent with its documented or certified information.

Rewiring Critical Mineral Supply Chains: The Canada–Japan–France Partnership – Analysis

May 5, 2026 
Observer Research Foundation
By Pratnashree Basu

For much of the past decade, critical mineral diplomacy was framed through a binary lens: either align with China—the dominant player in extraction, refining, and processing—or rally behind US-led friendshoring efforts. That binary is now breaking down. A new triangular alignment between Canada, Japan, and France is beginning to take shape within the G7, driven by a shared recognition that overdependence on both Beijing’s mineral dominance and Washington’s increasingly transactional industrial policy creates strategic vulnerabilities. What is emerging is not an anti-American coalition, nor an anti-China bloc in the conventional sense; rather, it is a middle-power effort to build supply chain resilience through strategic autonomy.

The roots of this alignment lie in the earlier logic of Canada–Japan critical mineral cooperation. Japan needed reliable upstream access to minerals such as lithium, graphite, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths to sustain its automotive, battery, and semiconductor sectors. Canada, meanwhile, possessed abundant reserves but required capital, technology, and long-term buyers to make projects commercially viable. The partnership made strategic sense: Japan could reduce its dependence on Chinese mineral inputs, while Canada could move beyond being merely a raw material exporter and become embedded in higher-value clean technology supply chains.

This logic became visible in concrete projects. Canada’s Nouveau Monde Graphite (NMG) Matawinie Mine in Quebec emerged as one of the most prominent examples of bilateral cooperation. The project secured support from Japanese firms, including Panasonic Energy and Mitsui & Co., alongside Canadian state-backed financing mechanisms. The goal was clear: to create one of North America’s largest integrated graphite facilities to support battery manufacturing while reducing dependence on Chinese graphite refining. Ottawa explicitly positioned the project as part of broader G7 supply chain diversification efforts.

But by 2025–26, however, the strategic conversation had shifted. The challenge was no longer simply dependence on China; it was also the growing uncertainty surrounding US industrial policy. The return of more protectionist trade measures in Washington, combined with efforts to create a preferential, US-led minerals bloc, generated unease among allies. In February 2026, the United States proposed a preferential trade arrangement for critical minerals among select partners. Yet rather than uniformly falling in line, Canada, Japan, and France began exploring parallel mechanisms that would provide greater policy flexibility and strategic room for manoeuvre.

This is where France entered the equation in a significant way. Unlike Canada, France does not possess substantial upstream reserves. However, due to its processing capabilities, industrial financing capacity, and growing drive to build European infrastructure for rare-earth refining, it plays a crucial midstream role. In March 2026, Japan and France signed a new rare-earth cooperation roadmap during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Tokyo. The agreement focused specifically on heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium—materials essential for EV motors, semiconductors, and defence technologies. Crucially, Japan committed to sourcing nearly 20 percent of future demand from France-backed refining projects such as Caremag.

Given its upstream scale, Canada’s contribution to this trilateral alignment is arguably the most significant. Ottawa has made a concerted effort to position itself as the cornerstone of a broader associated minerals ecosystem. Under the G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan launched during Canada’s 2025 G7 presidency in Kananaskis, Ottawa pushed for “standards-based markets,” financing mechanisms, and diversified offtake agreements. By October 2025, Canada had announced 26 investments and partnerships with nine countries, including Japan and France, unlocking billions of dollars in mining and refining investments.

More significantly, Canada began advocating what officials described as a “buyers’ club” model. This marked an important shift in critical mineral diplomacy. Rather than allowing China to dominate pricing or Washington to shape market architecture, Canada proposed coordinated purchasing among trusted partners to guarantee demand for non-Chinese suppliers. Such a mechanism would help address a central challenge in critical minerals markets: Chinese suppliers often undercut prices, rendering alternative mining projects commercially unviable.

Japan strongly backed this approach because it aligns with Tokyo’s long-standing economic security doctrine. Since China’s 2010 rare-earth restrictions on Japan following the Senkaku/Diaoyu crisis, Tokyo has pursued aggressive supply diversification. Its dependence on Chinese rare earths has reportedly fallen from nearly 90 percent to around 60 percent through investments in Australia and Southeast Asia, recycling technologies, and now partnerships with Canada and France. The trilateral framework therefore represents an extension of Japan’s broader de-risking strategy rather than a sudden policy shift.

France’s role is equally strategic. As the 2026 G7 chair, Paris has increasingly framed critical minerals as a question of European strategic sovereignty. French policymakers contend that relying solely on American industrial frameworks risks substituting one dependency for another. This explains why France opposes unilateral measures and places strong emphasis on multilateral collaboration. French officials have repeatedly called for trust-based coordination rather than fragmented national industrial policies.

What makes this trilateral alignment particularly significant is that it reflects the rise of minilateralism within the G7 itself. Traditionally, the G7 functioned through broad consensus led by Washington. Today, smaller coalitions are forming within the grouping to pursue narrower strategic goals. Canada, Japan, and France are effectively creating a sub-group focused on mineral resilience, industrial coordination, and supply chain diversification.

This alignment has broader Indo-Pacific implications. Japan views critical minerals as central to maintaining technological competitiveness vis-à-vis China. Canada increasingly sees mineral diplomacy as a core pillar of its Indo-Pacific strategy. France, with territories and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific, considers mineral security an integral part of its wider regional role. Their convergence reflects how resource geopolitics is becoming embedded within broader Indo-Pacific strategic competition.

Yet challenges remain. Mining projects face environmental opposition, Indigenous rights concerns, long permitting timelines, and high costs. Processing capacity remains heavily concentrated in China. Even among allies, industrial interests often diverge. The United States remains too large a player to ignore.


Still, the broader trend is unmistakable. The Canada–Japan relationship laid the foundation. France expanded the architecture. Together, the three countries are attempting something far more ambitious: building a critical minerals ecosystem that is neither dependent on Chinese coercion nor vulnerable to American unpredictability. In an era when supply chains are increasingly instruments of geopolitical power, this may prove to be one of the most consequential strategic experiments underway within the G7 today.

About the author: Pratnashree Basu is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.

Source: This article was published by the Observer Research Foundation.

Observer Research Foundation

ORF was established on 5 September 1990 as a private, not for profit, ’think tank’ to influence public policy formulation. The Foundation brought together, for the first time, leading Indian economists and policymakers to present An Agenda for Economic Reforms in India. The idea was to help develop a consensus in favour of economic reforms.

 

Developing Countries Feel Squeeze From Lower Natural Resource Revenue, Falling Foreign Aid – Analysis

 May 5, 2026 

By Mario Mansour and Fayçal Sawadogo

Fiscal pressures in developing countries make stronger domestic revenue systems more important than ever

Developing countries face major difficulties as income from natural resource extraction industries decreases and wealthier nations reduce their aid.

Nontax revenue from natural resources extraction and foreign aid grants for general spending have fallen by a combined 3.8 percent of gross domestic product since 2000, according to the latest annual update of the IMF’s World Revenue Longitudinal Database. Gains from tax collection since then amounted to just 2.6 percent, offsetting only two-thirds of the decline, our unique tally of detailed public revenue data shows.

The Chart of the Week shows that the decrease in proceeds from nontax extractive revenue was the biggest driver of the drop for both low-income developing countries and emerging market economies. These revenues are generally what governments earn from industries like oil, gas, and mining—such as royalties, profit sharing, and dividends from state-owned enterprises. Declining foreign aid grants for general spending also contributed to lower revenues.

Closing the gap often requires collecting more tax revenue, and affected countries won’t be able to deliver on their economic development goals without doing so. To succeed, they need sustained investment in domestic tax policy and tax administration, supported by effective institutions to underpin them. The IMF supports member countries through its capacity development efforts—customized technical assistance and training services, often delivered through collaboration with donor countries and other international organizations.

Capacity development helps developing countries build expertise and policy frameworks to improve tax systems and institutions. It also reduces dependence on volatile and declining revenues, such as from extractive industries and foreign support. Helping developing countries with this work, known as domestic revenue mobilization, contributes to fiscal resilience, which ultimately benefits global economic growth.

Evaluating how governments raise more reliable, sustainable revenue from within the economy requires high-quality granular data. Our database tracks decades of tax and nontax revenue consistently across 195 economies using data provided by our members. The database is also a unique resource for researchers, policymakers, and development practitioners seeking to analyze revenue trends, benchmark performance, and identify reform priorities.

—Download the dataset: World Revenue Longitudinal Database

About the authors;

• Mario Mansour is Division Chief in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD), where he oversees tax policy work in Francophone Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Central Asia. Prior to this, he held several positions in FAD (2004-2018), including Deputy Division Chief of Tax Policy, and was Director of the IMF’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (2018-2021).

• Fayçal Sawadogo is an economist in the IMF’s Asia-Pacific department.

Source: This article was published by IMF Blog

Rain Barrels And Other Household Stormwater Strategies Are Working — For Now

 May 6, 2026 

By Eurasia Review

In the last two decades coastal urban areas have taken steps to better minimize flooding and runoff by creating more permeable surfaces and encouraging residents to participate in water retention and use-reduction programs. These efforts, ranging from adding rain barrels and cisterns, to installing water-efficient fixtures, are making a difference, according to new research from Drexel University. And they may play an even more important role as sea level rise and the extreme weather effects of climate change increase the threat of flooding in these communities.

In their paper, recently published in the journal Urban Climate, a team of researchers from Drexel’s College of Engineering, measured the efficacy of decentralized stormwater management strategies and, for the first time, established a baseline for including their impact in stormwater models used by municipalities and urban planners.

Their findings suggest that these household-level efforts can combine to reduce the volume of stormwater flooding and sewer overflows by 11-13%. It also indicates that these reductions can be sustained in the face of more frequent flooding due to climate change and sea level rise.

“This marks one of the first pieces of research to extensively model combinations of decentralized stormwater management strategies,” said Amanda Carneiro Marques, PhD, an assistant professor in the College of Engineering, who led the study. “In order to address current and future water management challenges in coastal urban areas, it is essential to combine this data with modeling that accounts for more extreme weather events and sea level rise — which our research strives to provide.”

These models, and the management strategies they generate, have become increasingly important for older coastal cities in the aftermath of severe weather events, like Hurricane Irene, Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Ida. Cities like Boston, New York and Philadelphia are susceptible to a particular challenge due to their combined sewer systems in which stormwater and sewage flow into the same treatment system. This means that during extreme precipitation events, stormwater can overwhelm the system causing it to discharge raw sewage into a nearby body of water.

In accordance with the Clean Water Act’s mitigation goals, municipalities are taking steps to prevent combined sewer overflows, including employing “circular” strategies that encourage water retention and percolation — rather than runoff — and help to minimize the overall amount of water flowing into the sewer system.

“When we talk about circular economy, most people think about recycling waste and materials. But the concept of circular economy also applies to water. Here we’re talking about installing rainwater cisterns, reusing water from the sink to flush toilets and using water-efficient appliances. While those may seem like small steps at the individual level, we found that if they are widely adopted, they can have a significant collective impact,” said Fernanda Cruz Rios, PhD, an assistant professor in the College of Engineering, who was a co-author of the research. “They help reduce demand on the municipal supply, and the energy needed to treat and distribute that water. But what we found was that these strategies offer a real double benefit. In areas like Philadelphia and Camden, that are particularly vulnerable due to their proximity to large bodies of water, we were able to see a meaningful reduction in flooding volumes when circular water strategies were adopted.”

Despite the ongoing compliance efforts, the cities of Philadelphia and Camden have around 16 billion gallons of combined sewer overflow, according to reports from their respective water utilities.

Over the last two and a half decades, Camden has established a stormwater management plan, including decentralized strategies, an upgrade to stormwater infrastructure and storm water management modeling. To understand the overall impact of these efforts, in hopes of applying findings to other vulnerable urban areas, the Drexel team created a computer model of stormwater movement using data from Cramer Hill, a neighborhood of Camden in the state’s “coastal hazard zone” that is highly susceptible to tidal and storm-surge flooding.

The researchers structured the model so that it could quantify the distinct effects of outdoor strategies (cisterns and rain barrels) and indoor strategies — efficient fixtures and reusing sink wash water (greywater) for toilet flushing. It simulated and measured the effect of 16 different combinations of strategies, ranging from rain barrels of different sizes, to varying levels of adoption of water-efficient fixtures and greywater reuse.

Each scenario was simulated using precipitation and tidal data from 2014 as a baseline and flooding measurements projected at locations across the neighborhood and at five stormwater outfall areas that contribute to combined sewer overflow discharges into the Delaware River.

The results show that the combination of retrofitting homes with water-efficient fixtures as well as installing rain barrels and practicing greywater reuse, when adopted by 75% of households, could reduce the volume of combined sewer overflows by as much as 11% and the volume of flood waters by up to 13%.

“This finding is an important and encouraging piece of information for municipalities that are facing similar challenges,” Marques said. “Although broad adoption of these measures can be challenging to achieve, confirmation of its effectiveness may help to make the case.”

To test the durability of decentralized strategies against future climate conditions, the team adjusted its model to show the effects of 10%, 20% and 30% increases in precipitation intensity and rises in sea level of 30 centimeters, 90 centimeters and 1.8 meters.

Their results indicated that both conditions expectedly exacerbate combined sewer overflows and flooding. Increased precipitation commensurately increased sewer overflow and flood volume, while higher sea levels also create a backpressure on the sewer system that prevents regular drainage and increases surface flooding. However, the decentralized strategies remained robust in the face of these challenges, reducing the increased volumes by 11-13% — indicating to the researchers that they could play a crucial role in future mitigation planning.

“Taken together, these findings show the need for integrated planning that complements the existing centralized combined sewer system, such as combining decentralized circular water intervention with centralized, system-wide infrastructure upgrades,” Marques said. “No single intervention can fully address the intertwined challenges of combined sewer overflow and flooding, that is expected to further deteriorate due to climate change.”

According to the team, future research should examine public perception and barriers to adoption of decentralized measures. It could also expand flooding models to study the water quality impact of combined sewer overflows and flooding originating from adjacent bodies of water. Refining the model as it is used in more areas will also improve its ability to project effective mitigation strategies that are a fit for each municipality.

“Our findings are a first step toward filling a significant knowledge gap —these strategies have rarely been evaluated in combination and stress tested against climate change and sea level rise projections,” Marques. “With hydrologic and hydraulic modeling at block-by-block resolution, we believe this information could play an important role in resilience planning for many coastal urban areas.”