AMS Science Preview: Gun violence & weather; NOAA flights improve hurricane forecasts; atmospheric rivers and radio waves

Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society

American Meteorological Society

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The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples.

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JOURNAL ARTICLES

Exploring The Role of Air Mass Type and Weather on Shooting Incidents in New York City
Weather, Climate, and Society

Hot, dry air masses=increased gun violence in NYC. Previous studies have suggested that shootings increase during hot weather in New York City. This study looks at the overall characteristics of the air masses dominant over the city, yielding a more accurate picture of how weather relates to gun violence. The authors find that on the whole,  “hotter, drier air masses tend to increase shootings, especially in the spring, while cooler, wetter air masses tend to decrease shootings, especially in the summer.”

Comparison of 2018–22 Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Before and After NOAA G-IV Missions
Weather and Forecasting 

NOAA hurricane flights improve tropical cyclone track forecasts. Wind data from flights into tropical cyclones by the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet–such as Hurricane Hunter missions–improved forecasts of a storm’s path by up to 24% on average, based on 2018-2022 data. The authors ran model forecasts (using both U.S. and European models) with and without dropwindsonde data from Gulfstream flights, and found that the first track forecast to incorporate the data for a given cyclone saw the greatest improvement.

The Conditional Effects of Air Conditioning: How Air Conditioning Affects Climate Change Views by Partisanship in Los Angeles County
Weather, Climate, and Society

L.A. Republicans without air conditioning are more likely to be concerned about climate change. Data from the Los Angeles Barometer survey suggest that L.A.-area Republicans without access to air conditioning are “more likely to consider climate change a human-caused threat and more likely to support individual and government action to address climate change” compared with Republicans who had central air. Democrats did not show a similar divide.

The Cost of Weather-Related Traffic Collisions
Weather, Climate, and Society

Weather-related traffic accidents cost North Carolina. A study of 2013–19 data from North Carolina counties found that common adverse weather conditions like rain, wind, and extreme temperatures contributed to around 7,805 extra traffic collisions per year in the state, and around $961 million in costs to society. Different conditions have disparate impacts on collision outcomes for vehicles, bicycles, and pedestrians, with each county seeing thousands to millions of dollars’ worth of costs per day of exposure to adverse weather.

Extreme Weather Experiences, Emotional Reactions to Messages, and Support for Pro-Climate Policies
Weather, Climate, and Society

Political conservatives who have experienced extreme weather are somewhat more receptive to climate communications. Using data from Pew’s American Trends Panel, the authors found that personal experiences with extreme weather may enhance political conservatives’ receptiveness to messages about climate action, moderating their emotional responses and subtly shifting their preferences around energy policy toward pro-climate positions.

Quantifying the Effects of the KULM Radar on Local Report Climatology, Operational Metrics, and Casualty Impacts of Tornadoes
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Increased tornado reports, fewer casualties followed installation of new weather radar. In 2016, the University of Louisiana Monroe began operating a Doppler radar in an area with previously poor radar coverage. Results indicate more than a seven-fold increase in the number of annual tornado reports, fewer false alarms, and a lower annual casualty rate. Investing in supplemental radars has the potential to improve National Weather Service warnings and provide public value.

Characterizing Rainfall and Land Surface Conditions Associated with Lightning-Initiated Wildfires
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Less rain, more lightning-sparked wildfires. A study of lighting-initiated wildfires (LIWs) in the United States found that LIWs were more likely after days of declining soil moisture with plants stressed by dryness. Rain rates were most important for determining whether LIWs would occur, but dry surface soil (with more water deep down) was also common at ignition sites. 

Synthesis of Publications on the Anomalous June 2021 Heat Wave in the Pacific Northwest, United States and Canada
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

2021 PNW heat wave: causes and effects. A synthesis of research on 2021’s Pacific Northwest heat wave found that “a persistent, extraordinarily strong ridge of high pressure was a primary driver,” with contributors like moisture from the tropical Pacific, high solar radiation, and unusually dry soils. Climate change contributed by increasing average temperatures, but it’s unclear whether it disproportionately increased temperature extremes. Mortality, heat-induced illness, and the number of visits to emergency departments during the 2021 heat wave were anomalously high, especially among older and low-income people, those who lived alone, and those without functioning a/c.

Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on Electromagnetic Ducting as Diagnosed from Dropsondes
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Atmospheric rivers create channels for electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic ducting, in which atmospheric conditions create a layer that traps and channels electromagnetic waves, is crucial for radio wave propagation in communication, radar, and navigation systems. Analysis of data from Atmospheric River Reconnaissance flights finds that atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a significant role in determining the frequency and properties of electromagnetic ducts, suggesting that large changes in airmass density lead to deeper ducts that can trap larger wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation.

Global Land-Lake Thermal Contrast in a Warming World
Journal of Climate

Lakes’ weather impact may change with warming. Lakes exert strong influence on local weather and climate due to large differences in their temperature from that of nearby land (on average worldwide, across seasons and time of day, lakes are warmer than the land around them). This study suggests that under a high-emissions global warming scenario, warming of land surfaces will lead to lakes being on average cooler than surrounding land by the end of the century. Lake breezes are likely to intensify.

A Linear Analysis of the Heating Footprints of the US Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Northern Extratropical Synoptic Variability
Journal of Climate

Localized U.S. storm systems may alter weather as far away as Europe. A modeling study suggests that convective heating from mesoscale convective systems (thunderstorm complexes) over the United States could alter weather patterns as far away as the North Atlantic and Europe “for days or even longer.” Heat released from these storms can add energy to larger-scale weather patterns, with implications for regional and global climate.

NOAA/NASA/NSF research spotlights

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the parent agency of the National Weather Service. NOAA’s research arm, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, is threatened with elimination under 2026 budget plans, as is much of the research that takes place at the National Air and Space Administration (NASA) or is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF). To help reporters understand some of the research that takes place through these funds and agencies, we are highlighting the additional recent publications below: 

U.S.-based hurricane track forecasts for the North Atlantic are improving: While European hurricane models have been considered the most reliable globally, U.S. models have been catching up to them since 2019, this study finds. “Various FV3 (Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core)-based models, including [the] National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Global Forecast System (GFS), [NCEP’s] newly operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), and [the] research-oriented Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD), have consistently demonstrated improved hurricane forecasts in the North Atlantic basin.” 

Flights over the ocean help quantify climate change: Read about the NASA ACTIVATE mission, studying aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) over the northwest Atlantic, which represent the largest uncertainty in estimating total anthropogenic-radiative forcing (i.e., human contributions to climate change).

An accessible home for Antarctic research: Read about the NSF-funded Antarctic Meteorological Research and Data Center (AMRDC) Data Repository, which aims to house and archive current and future Antarctic meteorological research.

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.

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About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

About AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.

 

DUNE-TECH boot camp at Rice ignites next generation of America ’s neutrino scientists

Rice University

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A group photo of the DUNE-TECH camp attendees.

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Credit: Rice University.

In a milestone moment for science education and collaboration, Rice University hosted its first DUNE-TECH (DUNE Training ExperienCe Hub) camp this June, drawing students, researchers and scientists from across the country into the world of neutrino physics and computing. The weeklong event held on Rice’s campus was designed to prepare participants for meaningful engagement with the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) — the most ambitious neutrino experiment ever undertaken in the United States.

“The DUNE-TECH camp was born out of a desire to give students hands-on experience and training in the kind of cutting-edge tools and technologies they’ll need to contribute to the DUNE experiment and to neutrino physics more broadly,” said Aaron Higuera, assistant research professor of physics and astronomy at Rice and the principal investigator for DUNE-TECH. “We’re laying the foundation for the next generation of scientists to ask — and hopefully answer — some of the most fundamental questions about the universe.”

Advancing the frontiers of neutrino science

The DUNE experiment is an international, multi-institutional effort to study neutrinos — the second most abundant particle in the universe. It involves a pair of detectors placed along a 1,300-kilometer baseline with one near the source of a high-intensity neutrino beam at Fermilab in Illinois and the other housed deep underground in South Dakota’s Sanford Underground Research Facility. Together, these detectors will allow researchers to observe neutrino oscillations, probe the origin of matter, test theories of proton decay and even investigate how black holes are born.

Through DUNE-TECH, Rice and its partners — including Fermi National Accelerator Lab, Los Alamos National Lab, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory and others — aim to immerse early career researchers in this groundbreaking scientific endeavor.

“The camp wasn’t just lectures, it was about building skills,” Higuera said. “From C++ and Python programming to machine learning, ROOT data analysis and databases, we introduced participants to the full technical tool kit they’ll need for DUNE and other experiments.”

The students who attended the weeklong camp found it both inspiring and useful for their future studies and careers.

“I’m really into particle physics, and I started doing research with my professor at Wichita State, who’s also involved with DUNE,” said Olive Colfelt, a rising junior at Wichita State University and a DUNE-TECH fellow and camp attendee. “He pointed me toward this opportunity as a great way to expand my computing capabilities.”

“As a physics major, I’ve always been fascinated by neutrinos, especially the unintuitive, almost mysterious things they do, like oscillations,” said Oswaldo J. Cardenas, a rising senior at Harvey Mudd College who attended the camp. “What drew me to this program was the chance to be part of a collaborative environment where you’re thinking, learning and talking with others who are just as curious as you are.”

A week of discovery

The camp kicked off June 9 with a special lecture from Mary Bishai, the 2024 DOE Office of Science Distinguished Scientist Fellow, former DUNE co-spokesperson and a pioneer in neutrino physics. Currently a senior scientist at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Bishai has spent her career unlocking the secrets of neutrinos and played a key role in shaping DUNE’s scientific mission.

“This is a 30-year project, and we need to develop the scientific community that will carry it forward — from high school to undergrad and beyond,” Bishai said. “Some of these young people in attendance today may be standing up here in 10 years announcing what could be a Nobel Prize-winning result.”

“It was incredibly inspiring to have Dr. Bishai speak to the students,” Higuera said. “Her career exemplifies the impact one person can have on the direction of a major scientific collaboration.”

Throughout the week, students and early career researchers dove into technical sessions on computing and neutrino theory. The diverse group of lecturers — representing national labs and universities from across the country — gave students the opportunity to build community and network during coffee breaks, including a Wednesday night dinner at Rice’s historic Cohen House.

The future of fundamental physics

With its emphasis on skill-building, mentorship and collaboration, DUNE-TECH reflects a growing recognition of the importance of training in science. As the DUNE experiment moves closer to operations, camps like this one will be essential to preparing a global workforce capable of analyzing data and advancing bold new theories.

“It’s been incredible to see how everyone has come together. Research teams get to share their work, and it’s inspiring to hear about what they’re doing,” said Mikayla Bukenya, who helped establish DUNE-TECH and graduated from Rice with a computer science degree this spring. “I enjoy having conversations with the team and helping out, especially on the software side of things. It’s great to contribute in that way.”

“DUNE is a once-in-a-generation project, and Rice is proud to be a hub for this kind of high-impact science education,” Higuera said. “This camp is our way of making sure that when the big discoveries come, our students are ready to lead.”

 

Ensuring the future of flora: UMass Amherst ecologists release dataset of climate-smart plants

University of Massachusetts Amherst

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Spotted beebalm can grow to almost three feet tall in dry soil with full sun and is beloved of native bees.

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Credit: Jenica Allen

AMHERST, Mass. — Native plant species cannot adapt quickly enough, nor move fast enough to keep ahead of climate change. If native plants are going to survive rising temperatures, they need human intervention—everyone from home gardeners to professional landscapers. But which flora to choose? And how to know if a plant native to Connecticut might do well in Maine?

To help solve this problem, ecologists from the University of Massachusetts Amherst collaborated with the Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NE RISCC) Management Network to launch both a Climate-Smart Gardening guide and an extensive dataset of easily obtainable native plants that will thrive in the coming decades. The resources, available now, will be officially announced in an online “Coffee Talk,” June 18, 10 a.m. ET.

“We’ve been working on this for more than two years,” says Matthew Fertakos, a graduate student in organismic and evolutionary biology at UMass Amherst and one of the project’s lead authors. “People are getting excited about planting native species, but climate change is changing what can grow where and what will persist into the future. Unfortunately, there’s not all that much publicly available information to help guide people when they’re trying to decide what to plant.”

To remedy that, Fertakos and his co-authors, who hail from the New York Botanical Garden, Cornell University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, and New York State Parks, have assembled an enormous database of climate-smart plants. They surveyed approximately 350 nurseries, from Virginia to Maine, Ohio to Massachusetts, to see what native plants were generally available, and then relied on some of the best, most current ecological forecasting to understand what each state’s growing conditions would look like over the next 40 years. The resulting state lists have hundreds of options for home gardeners to choose from.

“When we’re thinking about climate change and the impact it is going to have on where species can grow, there’s a paradigm of move, adapt or die,” says Jenica Allen, senior research fellow at UMass Amherst and NE RISCC. “We’re trying to avoid the die, and there is good evidence that moving is the key to survival. That’s really the piece of the puzzle that this dataset is aiming to address, with home gardeners and landscape professionals as the audience.”

The UMass Amherst team, along with their NE RISCC colleagues, worked closely with on-the-ground experts and natural resource practitioners to fine-tune the plant lists for each Atlantic coast state, from Maine to Virginia, as well as states as far west as Ohio. “We had input and review from more than 100 experts,” says Fertakos, “and we made dozens of changes to our initial draft based on their feedback.”

Both the Climate Smart Gardening pamphlet and the plant database are available here.

 

Study of adolescents shows that the urban environment influences their sense of justice and trust in institutions

Over the course of three years, researchers from the University of São Paulo and their collaborators examined the “belief in a just world” of 659 São Paulo residents between the ages of 12 and 14

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

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A study of young people in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, reveals that adolescents living in neighborhoods with high rates of violence and poor infrastructure tend to perceive the world as being more unfair for them than for others.

The Center for the Study of Violence (NEV), one of FAPESP’s Research, Innovation, and Dissemination Centers (RIDCs), analyzed the trajectories of “belief in a just world” (BJW) among 659 adolescents aged 12 to 14 over three years. The results were published in an article in the Journal of Environmental Psychology.

The concept of BJW refers to the perception that the world is generally a fair place where people “reap what they sow.” This belief is considered fundamental to forming expectations, engaging socially, and internalizing norms and values. However, according to the authors of the article, these beliefs do not develop in a vacuum; rather, they are shaped by concrete experiences in physical and social environments.

“Our hypothesis was that the physical environment, by itself, plays an important role in shaping adolescents’ beliefs about justice, regardless of relational factors such as being around parents, teachers, or law enforcement officials,” says psychologist André Vilela Komatsu, the first author of the study and a FAPESP fellow (projects 19/09360-6 and 22/07075-5).

The co-author is Simone Kühn, a neuroscientist, professor at the University of Hamburg in Germany, and director of the Center for Environmental Neuroscience at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. Komatsu completed his postdoctoral internship at the institute, where the study was developed in partnership.

The researchers observed that adolescents in neighborhoods marked by neglect, insecurity, and violence not only have lower levels of personal BJW, but also gradually depart from this belief over time. The feeling that one’s own life is not governed by justice can have significant implications for both psychological well-being and behavior, affecting aspects such as motivation, self-esteem, and trust in institutions.

In more affluent neighborhoods, young people have a higher personal BJW, though they do not necessarily believe that the world is generally fair. “Even upper-middle-class adolescents perceive social injustice around them,” Komatsu points out. “But because they live in more protected environments with access to services and opportunities, they feel less vulnerable and maintain a certain confidence that at least their lives will be fair.”

The study reinforces the importance of considering urban and structural factors, such as infrastructure, access to services, and community cohesion, in the debate on citizenship and democratic development. “Degraded environments not only affect physical and mental well-being but also erode trust in institutions and principles of equity,” says Komatsu.

According to the researcher, schools have the potential to play a central role in shaping how kids and teens perceive what is fair or unfair in the world around them. “The school environment is the institutional space where young people spend most of their time and continuously interact. In unequal urban areas, schools can promote an experience of citizenship that contrasts with perceived injustices in the neighborhood, transportation, or public safety. On the other hand, when schools reproduce inequalities or punitive and arbitrary practices, they reinforce the perception that institutions are unfair. In our study, we took into account how adolescents perceived their teachers in relation to the fair application of rules, that is, whether they acted with clarity, impartiality, and respect. We know from previous studies that this directly influences the formation of a sense of justice in young people.”

The study in question did not consider differences in “belief in a just world” based on gender or race. However, previous studies with the same sample revealed these differences. “These studies revealed that young people with greater social privilege – especially those who identify as white, male, from private schools, and from higher-income families – tend to have a higher personal BJW. In other words, they believe that they live in a world that’s fairer for them than for others. Of course, these differences do not only reflect individual perceptions, but also the structural inequalities present in Brazilian society,” says Komatsu.

Social media plays a significant role in shaping beliefs and values. “It’s important to note that the dissemination of content on social media occurs within ecosystems mediated by algorithms, which tend to amplify content with a high potential for emotional engagement, often simplified, sensationalized, or ideologically biased. These algorithms not only select what’s shown but also shape how events are interpreted, reinforcing perception bubbles and confirming prior beliefs. On many pages and profiles, the structural causes of social, racial, and territorial injustices are hidden or distorted and replaced by populist and simplistic narratives. This algorithmic functioning tends to lead people to interpret social injustice as the result of individual behavior or the behavior of specific groups, thereby reinforcing existing stigmas,” Komatsu emphasizes.

In this sense, although social media has the potential to foster awareness and social criticism, its algorithms tend to favor sensationalist or emotionally charged content over more balanced and well-founded information, such as that produced by scientists or institutions committed to social justice. “This not only distorts public debate but also hinders adolescents’ access to more contextualized and evidence-based interpretations of the causes of the inequalities and injustices that affect them,” the researcher argues.

The study points out that urban interventions have the potential to restore a sense of justice among adolescents in vulnerable areas if they address the everyday experiences of these young people. “Actions such as the redevelopment of public spaces – squares, cultural centers, and sports and leisure areas – symbolically convey the message that that community matters and is worthy of care. But it’s important that these initiatives be accompanied by participatory processes that foster a sense of belonging and agency, and promote the recognition of adolescents as holders of rights. In addition, continued investment in basic infrastructure, such as lighting, sanitation, transportation, and health, communicates the idea of material value for lives that are often neglected," Komatsu emphasizes.

The article “The effect of the physical environment on adolescents’ sense of justice” is available at: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0272494425000659.

About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)
The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.

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Journal

Journal of Environmental Psychology

DOI

10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102582 

Article Title

The effect of the physical environment on adolescents’ sense of justice

 

Evolution made us cheats, now free-riders run the world and we need to change, new book warns

University of Cambridge

 

To save democracy and solve the world's biggest challenges, we need to get better at spotting and exposing people who exploit human cooperation for personal gain, argues Cambridge social scientist Dr Jonathan Goodman.

 

In Invisible Rivals, published by Yale University Press today, Dr Goodman argues that throughout human history we have tried to rid our social groups of free-riders, people who take from others without giving anything back. But instead of eliminating free-riders, human evolution has just made them better at hiding their deception.

Goodman explains that humans have evolved to use language to disguise selfish acts and exploit our cooperative systems. He links this ‘invisible rivalry’ to the collapse of trust and consequent success of political strongmen today.

Goodman says: “We see this happening today, as evidenced by the rise of the Julius Caesar of our time—Donald Trump— but it is a situation that evolution has predicted since the origins of life and later, language, and which will only change form again even if the current crises are overcome.”

Goodman argues that over the course of human evolution “When we rid ourselves of ancient, dominant alphas, we traded overt selfishness for something perhaps even darker: the ability to move through society while planning and coordinating.”

“As much as we evolved to use language effectively to work together, to overthrow those brutish and nasty dominants that pervaded ancient society, we also (and do) use language to create opportunities that benefit us … We use language to keep our plans invisible. Humans, more than other known organisms, can cooperate until we imagine a way to compete, exploit, or coerce, and almost always rely on language to do so.”

Goodman, an expert on human social evolution at the University of Cambridge, identifies free-riding behaviour in everything from benefits cheating and tax evasion, to countries dodging action on climate change, and the actions of business leaders and politicians.

Goodman warns that “We can’t stop people free-riding, it’s part of our nature, the incurable syndrome… Free riders are among us at every level of society and pretending otherwise can make our own goals unrealistic, and worse, appear hopeless. But if we accept that we all have this ancient flaw, this ability to deceive ourselves and others, we can design policies around that and change our societies for the better.”

 

Lessons from our ancestors

Goodman points out that humans evolved in small groups meaning that over many generations we managed to design social norms to govern the distribution of food, water and other vital resources.

“People vied for power but these social norms helped to maintain a trend toward equality, balancing out our more selfish dispositions. Nevertheless, the free-rider problem persisted and using language we got better at hiding our cheating.”

One academic camp has argued that ancient humans used language to work together to overthrow and eject “brutish dominants”. The opposing view claims that this never happened and that humans are inherently selfish and tribal. Goodman rejects both extremes.

“If we accept the view that humans are fundamentally cooperative, we risk trusting blindly. If we believe everyone is selfish, we won’t trust anyone. We need to be realistic about human nature. We’re a bit of both so we need to learn how to place our trust discerningly.”

Goodman points out that our distant ancestors benefitted from risk-pooling systems, whereby all group members contributed labour and shared resources, but this only worked because it is difficult to hide tangible assets such as tools and food. While some hunter-gatherer societies continue to rely on these systems, they are ineffective in most modern societies in our globalized economy.

“Today most of us rely largely on intangible assets for monetary exchange so people can easily hide resources, misrepresent their means and invalidate the effectiveness of social norms around risk pooling,” Goodman says.

“We are flawed animals capable of deception, cruelty, and selfishness. The truth is hard to live with but confronting it through honest reflection about our evolutionary past gives us the tools to teach ourselves and others about how we can improve the future.”

 

Taking action: self-knowledge, education & policy

Goodman, who teaches students at Cambridge about the evolution of cooperation, argues that we reward liars from a young age and that this reinforces bad behaviour into adulthood.

“People tell children that cheaters don’t prosper, but in fact cheats who don’t get caught can do very well for themselves.”

“Evolutionarily speaking, appearing trustworthy but being selfish can be more beneficial to the individual. We need to recognise that and make a moral choice about whether we try to use people or to work with them.”

At the same time, Goodman thinks we need to arm ourselves intellectually with the power to tell who is credible and who is not. “Our most important tool for doing this is education,” he says. “We must teach people to think ethically for themselves, and to give them the tools to do so.”

But Goodman cautions that even the tools we use to expose exploiters are open to exploitation: “Think about how people across the political sphere accuse others of virtue signalling or abusing a well-intentioned political movement for their own gain.”

Goodman believes that exposing free-riders is more beneficial than punishment. “Loss of social capital through reputation is an important motivator for anyone,” he argues, suggesting that journalistic work exposing exploitation can be as effective at driving behaviour change as criminal punishment.

“The dilemma each of us faces now is whether to confront invisible rivalry or to let exploiters undermine society until democracy in the free world unravels—and the freedom of dissent is gone.”

Dr Jonathan R Goodman is a research associate at Cambridge Public Health and a social scientist at the Wellcome Sanger Institute.

Invisible Rivals: How We Evolved to Compete in a Cooperative World is published by Yale University Press on 17 June 2025 (ISBN: 9780300274356)

 

Medicaid cuts in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" could undermine the coverage, financial well-being, medical care, and health of low-income Americans, and lead to more than 16,500 medically-preventable deaths

American College of Physicians

    
Below please find summaries of new articles that will be published in the next issue of Annals of Internal Medicine. The summaries are not intended to substitute for the full articles as a source of information. This information is under strict embargo and by taking it into possession, media representatives are committing to the terms of the embargo not only on their own behalf, but also on behalf of the organization they represent.   
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1. Medicaid cuts in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" could undermine the coverage, financial well-being, medical care, and health of low-income Americans, and lead to more than 16,500 medically-preventable deaths

Abstract: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/ANNALS-25-00716

URL goes live when the embargo lifts             

A new study published in Annals of Internal Medicine estimates the potential effects on Medicaid enrollment, uninsurance, financial strain, health care access, and health outcomes from potential Medicaid budget cuts being considered in Congress, including the House reconciliation bill advanced in May. Adam Gaffney, MD, MPH and colleagues identified six potential Medicaid cuts that the House of Representatives’ Budget Committee estimates would each reduce the Federal government’s Medicaid outlays by at least $100 billion over ten years: reduction of the Medicaid matching floor; reduced funding of the ACA Medicaid Expansion; Medicaid per capita caps; Medicaid work requirements; reduced Medicaid provider taxes; and repeal of the Biden-era Medicaid eligibility rule. They also assessed the overall effects of the current House bill, which includes three of the six options along with multiple smaller policy changes, such as shortening the duration of Medicaid’s retroactive coverage and increasing cost-sharing for some Medicaid enrollees. The researchers project that individually, these six Medicaid cuts would lead to an annual increase of between 651 and 12,626 medically preventable deaths. These cuts would increase the number of uninsured by between 600,000 and 3,900,000, and the annual number of persons foregoing needed medical care by 129,060 to 838,890. If the current House bill is enacted, the number of uninsured would rise by 7.6 million. It could lead to 1.9 million people losing their personal doctor, 1.3 million foregoing needed medications, 380,270 women going without a mammogram, and 16,642 preventable deaths. The authors warn that although these cuts are intended to offset tax cuts, they would also strip care from millions of low-income Americans and possibly lead to thousands of medically preventable deaths. They assert that policy makers should weigh the likely health and financial harms to patients and providers of reducing Medicaid expenditures against the desirability of tax reductions, which would benefit mostly wealthy Americans.   

 

Media contacts: For an embargoed PDF, please contact Gabby Macrina at gmacrina@acponline.org. To contact corresponding author Adam Gaffney, MD, MPH, please email agaffney@challiance.org.      

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2. Semaglutide more effective at lowering risk for stroke and other cardiovascular outcomes compared to empagliflozin

Abstract: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/ANNALS-24-00775

Summary for Patients: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/ANNALS-24-00775-PS

URL goes live when the embargo lifts             

Two target trial emulation studies compared mortality and cardiovascular risks in adult patients treated with semaglutide or dulaglutide versus empagliflozin. The study found that semaglutide moderately lowers risk for death, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke compared to empagliflozin; however, dulaglutide does not have a clinical treatment advantage over empagliflozin. The results are published in Annals of Internal Medicine.

 

Researchers from the University of Pittsburgh studied data from a retrospective observational cohort of patients 45 years or older with type 2 diabetes, comorbid conditions and a prescription for semaglutide, dulaglutide, or empagliflozin between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2024. The researchers emulated two target trials of initial treatment with either semaglutide (primary trial) or dulaglutide (secondary trial) versus empagliflozin. The primary outcome was risk for the composite outcome of death, MI, or stroke. Secondary outcomes included all-cause death, MI, stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation. The researchers matched empagliflozin-treated patients to either semaglutide- or dulaglutide-treated patients using propensity score (PS) methods. In the primary trial analysis, 7,899 patients treated with semaglutide were matched to 7,899 patients treated with empagliflozin, with all patients having similar baseline characteristics except a higher body mass index among patients treated with semaglutide. In the secondary trial, 6093 patients treated with dulaglutide were matched with 6,093 patients treated with empagliflozin and baseline characteristics were similar. The researchers found a nominally lower cumulative incidence of death, MI, or stroke in patients using semaglutide versus empagliflozin starting at one-year of follow-up. This was largely driven by a clear lower risk of stroke when using semaglutide versus empagliflozin. All risk estimates favored the use of semaglutide versus empagliflozin for secondary outcomes. In a subgroup analysis, patients younger than 65 years and those with an HbA1C below 7% had a lower risk for death, MI, or stroke when using semaglutide. In the secondary trial, the risk for death, MI, or stroke over follow-up was similar for patients treated with dulaglutide versus empagliflozin.  

 

Media contacts: For an embargoed PDF, please contact Gabby Macrina at gmacrina@acponline.org. To contact corresponding author Anum Saeed, MD, please email Allison Hydzik at hydzikam@upmc.edu.   

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3. Phase 3 trial suggests fecal transplant is as effective as antibiotics for treating c. diff infection

Abstract: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/ANNALS-24-03285

Editorial: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/ANNALS-25-01868

URL goes live when the embargo lifts             

A phase 3 randomized controlled trial evaluated the efficacy and safety of fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) versus the antibiotic vancomycin for adult patients with primary Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). The trial found that FMT showed a 5.4% numerical superiority to vancomycin, indicating that it is noninferior to vancomycin. Given the potential for side effects with vancomycin, the study results suggest that FMT could be considered as a first-line treatment for primary CDI, representing a change to current practice. The results are published in Annals of Internal Medicine. 

 

The current recommended therapy for primary CDI is antibiotic treatment; however, some patients experience antibiotic-associated colitis due to CDI. Researchers from the University of Oslo and colleagues conducted a randomized, open-label, noninferiority, multi-center trial at hospitals and primary care facilities in Norway between 1 June 2019 to 15 March 2024 to determine whether FMT without antibiotic pretreatment is an effective and safe treatment for CDI. Eligible patients were 18 years or older, had primary CDI, a positive stool test result for toxin-producing C difficile, and no diagnosis of CDI in the year prior to enrollment. 104 eligible patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to either one FMT enema administered within 24 hours of randomization or standard-of-care treatment with 125 mg of oral vancomycin four times daily for 10 days. The primary end point was clinical cure at day 14 after the start of treatment with only the assigned treatment and no recurrent CDI in the 60 days after the start of treatment. The researchers found that 66.7% of patients in the FMT group and 61.2% of patients in the vancomycin group achieved the primary end point. Subgroup analyses did not show significant differences by sex, age or CDI severity. There were no significant differences in adverse events between treatment groups.

 

Media contacts: For an embargoed PDF, please contact Gabby Macrina at gmacrina@acponline.org. To contact corresponding author Frederik Emil Juul, MD, PhD, please email f.e.juul@medisin.uio.no.

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4. Screening for anal cancer most cost-effective when initiated at age 35

Abstract: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/ANNALS-24-01426

URL goes live when the embargo lifts             

A microsimulation model was used to perform a benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness analysis of different anal cancer screening strategies among men who have sex with men (MSM) with HIV—individuals with 45-fold greater anal cancer risk than men without HIV. The researchers found that anal cancer screening among MSM with HIV aged 35 years or older could reduce anal cancer mortality by up to 65% and is cost-effective, with cost-effectiveness and harm-to-benefit ratios varying across a range of intervals and approaches. The results suggest value-based prioritization of anal cancer screening is needed to optimize screening use. The study is published in Annals of Internal Medicine. 

 

Researchers from the Medical University of South Carolina Hollings Cancer Center and colleagues developed a microsimulation model to simulate the life course of MSM with HIV using data from the ANCHOR (Anal Cancer–HSIL Outcomes Research) trial and other published literature. The researchers conducted the study to address the significant knowledge gap of data on long-term clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of screening for anal cancer. The model examined age-based anal cancer screening strategies among MSM with HIV aged 35 years or older in 2019 in the base-case analysis. Tests for primary screening and triage included anal cytology, hrHPV testing and cytology, and HPV co-testing. The researchers used the model to compare 52 different screening strategies which considered screening of persons aged 35 years or older, 40 years or older, or 45 years or older and annual, biennial, triennial, or quadrennial screening intervals. The researchers found that compared with no screening, cytology screening among MSM with HIV aged 35 years and older could reduce anal cancer mortality by up to 65%, with the greatest reductions seen in those initiating screening at an earlier age and more frequent rescreening intervals. These findings were consistent in the harm-to-benefit analysis. In the comparative analysis, anal cancer mortality reduction ranged from 25.8% for quadrennial cytology with HPV16 triage to 63.1% for annual cytology with hrHPV co-testing. HPV-based screening, specifically triennial testing for HPV16/18, was the most efficient. Cost effectiveness improved among newly eligible 35-year-olds, with biennial cytology screening being the most cost-effective. The researchers conclude that screening MSM with HIV aged 35 years or older using cytology provides greater value than initiating screening among those aged 40 or 45 years or older, in line with clinical guidelines recommending screening to start at 35. 

 

Media contacts: For an embargoed PDF, please contact Gabby Macrina at gmacrina@acponline.org. To contact corresponding author Ashish A. Deshmukh, PhD, MPH, please email Leslie Cantu at cantul@musc.edu.    

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Journal

Annals of Internal Medicine

DOI

10.7326/ANNALS-25-00716 

Method of Research

News article

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Projected Effects of Proposed Cuts in Federal Medicaid Expenditures on Medicaid Enrollment, Uninsurance, Healthcare and Health

Article Publication Date

17-Jun-2025