Echoes of Clement Attlee with first July election since 1945
8 HOURS AGO
The last general election held in July saw a Labour landslide in which Clement Attlee swept to power to oust Winston Churchill after the end of Second World War hostilities in Europe.
The 1945 election – which took place on July 5 – came within two months of VE Day and initiated a political transformation that saw the creation of the NHS and the building of social housing.
Parliament was dissolved only three weeks before Britons went to the polls, in contrast to the six weeks to go until July 4 this year.
The Labour Party gained a 145-seat majority and the Liberal Party leader, Archibald Sinclair, lost his seat.
The Conservatives lost 189 seats.
Clement Attlee, the Labour MP for Limehouse who replaced Winston Churchill as prime minister, introduced sweeping reforms such as the nationalisation of public utilities and the formation of the National Health Service.
A new generation of MPs who came to define 20th century British politics entered Parliament, including James Callaghan, Michael Foot and Harold Wilson.
A bad omen for Rishi? The last time a general election was held in July was in 1945... when Clement Attlee's Labour scored a landslide win over Winston Churchill's Tories
The last general election held in July saw a Labour landslide in which Clement Attlee swept to power to oust Winston Churchill after the end of Second World War hostilities in Europe.
The 1945 election – which took place on July 5 – came within two months of VE Day and initiated a political transformation that saw the creation of the NHS and the building of social housing.
Parliament was dissolved only three weeks before Britons went to the polls, in contrast to the six weeks to go until July 4 this year.
The Labour Party gained a 145-seat majority and the Liberal Party leader, Archibald Sinclair, lost his seat.
The Conservatives lost 189 seats.
Clement Attlee, the Labour MP for Limehouse who replaced Winston Churchill as prime minister, introduced sweeping reforms such as the nationalisation of public utilities and the formation of the National Health Service.
A new generation of MPs who came to define 20th century British politics entered Parliament, including James Callaghan, Michael Foot and Harold Wilson.
Rishi Sunak is sending the country to the polls for a general election in July for the first time since 1945.
The Prime Minister announced a contest for 4 July this year as he said it was 'the moment for Britain to choose its future'.
It means voters will head to polling stations across the UK almost exactly 79 years since the last time a general election was held in July.
But the 1945 contest holds few good omens for Mr Sunak, as the post-Second World War general election saw Labour secure a landslide win over the Tories.
The 1945 election - which took place on July 5 - came within two months of VE Day and initiated a political transformation that saw the creation of the NHS and the building of social housing.
The Prime Minister announced a contest for 4 July this year as he said it was 'the moment for Britain to choose its future'.
It means voters will head to polling stations across the UK almost exactly 79 years since the last time a general election was held in July. But the 1945 contest holds few good omens for Mr Sunak, as the post-Second World War general election saw Labour secure a landslide win over the Tories led by Winston Churchill.
Clement Attlee, the Labour MP for Limehouse who replaced Winston Churchill as prime minister, introduced sweeping reforms such as the nationalisation of public utilities and the formation of the National Health Service.
Parliament was dissolved only three weeks before Britons went to the polls, in contrast to the six weeks to go until July 4 this year.
The Labour Party gained a 145-seat majority and the Liberal Party leader, Archibald Sinclair, lost his seat. The Conservatives lost 189 seats.
Clement Attlee, the Labour MP for Limehouse who replaced Winston Churchill as prime minister, introduced sweeping reforms such as the nationalisation of public utilities and the formation of the National Health Service.
A new generation of MPs who came to define 20th century British politics entered Parliament, including James Callaghan, Michael Foot and Harold Wilson.
Starmer needs to outdo Blair to win majority
as new boundaries make task harder
The remodelled constituencies would have given the
Conservatives a bigger majority in 2019 than they achieved.
by David Hughes
2024-05-22
Fiona Hanson/PA
Sir Keir Starmer will need a bigger swing than Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide to win a majority at the General Election, with his task made more difficult by changes to constituency boundaries.
The Labour leader will have to achieve a swing of 12.7 points from the Conservatives to become prime minister – larger than the 10.2 point swing that brought New Labour to power in 1997 and more than double the swing at any other election since 1945.
His task will be made harder by the impact of the boundary changes, the first since 2010, which are intended to ensure that constituencies have similar numbers of voters.
Sunak’s majority
This has left Rishi Sunak defending a notional majority of 94, compared with the 80-seat margin actually secured by the Conservatives in 2019 – although this has subsequently been chipped away at by by-election defeats.
Labour's 'plan to change the country'
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>
The new parliamentary constituencies were drawn up by the permanent and independent Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and fewer than 12 per cent of the 650 Commons seats were left untouched.
The boundary changes give Mr Sunak’s hopes a modest boost, analysis by election experts Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggests, after they compiled notional results for what would have happened at the last general election in 2019 had it been fought on the new constituencies.
“Broadly speaking this reflects a pattern where the East, South East and South West of England have gained seats reflecting the increase in electorates, and Wales has lost them, following the implementation of the new rules,” the academics said.
Net gain for the Conservatives
According to the analysis, the Conservatives would have made a net gain of seven seats from the new boundaries; Labour a net loss of two seats, the Liberal Democrats three and Plaid Cymru two.
The changes mean England is allocated 543 seats, an increase of 10; Wales will have 32 seats, a reduction of eight; Scotland will have 57, down two; and Northern Ireland remains unchanged with 18.
Despite the cut in the number of seats in Scotland, the SNP remains on 48 seats, and there is no change in Northern Ireland, with the DUP on eight, Sinn Fein seven, SDLP on two and Alliance on one.
The four Boundary Commissions were obliged to ensure the new constituencies have an electorate within 5 per cent of 73,392, which is the total number of voters on March 2 2020 divided by 650, the number of Commons seats.
This gives all constituencies between 69,724 and 77,062 electors with just five “island seats” exempt – Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Islands) in Scotland, Ynys Mon (Anglesey) in North Wales, and the two seats allocated to the Isle of Wight.
The Conservatives won 365 seats in the snap 2019 December election, with Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour on 203, giving Boris Johnson a majority of 80, and 162 over Labour.
2019 general election
Following the 2019 election, a direct swing of seven percentage points from the Conservatives was needed for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament, and the boundary changes mean this rises to 8.3 percentage points.
For an overall majority, Sir Keir’s 12.7 point requirement is up from 12 on the old boundaries, and any uniform swing from the Tories to Labour greater than 4.2 and less than 12.7 is likely to produce a hung parliament.
However, focusing only on the direct swing between Conservatives and Labour makes the assumption there will be no change in the share votes cast for the other parties, which is highly unlikely to be true.
For instance, a 10-point swing from the SNP to Labour would give Sir Keir 15 gains under the new boundaries, easing his path to Downing Street, according to Professors Rallings and Thrasher.
They compiled their notional results on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the PA news agency.
Related: Four scenarios for the outcome of the General Election
Rishi Sunak is sending the country to the polls for a general election in July for the first time since 1945.
The Prime Minister announced a contest for 4 July this year as he said it was 'the moment for Britain to choose its future'.
It means voters will head to polling stations across the UK almost exactly 79 years since the last time a general election was held in July.
But the 1945 contest holds few good omens for Mr Sunak, as the post-Second World War general election saw Labour secure a landslide win over the Tories.
The 1945 election - which took place on July 5 - came within two months of VE Day and initiated a political transformation that saw the creation of the NHS and the building of social housing.
The Prime Minister announced a contest for 4 July this year as he said it was 'the moment for Britain to choose its future'.
It means voters will head to polling stations across the UK almost exactly 79 years since the last time a general election was held in July. But the 1945 contest holds few good omens for Mr Sunak, as the post-Second World War general election saw Labour secure a landslide win over the Tories led by Winston Churchill.
Clement Attlee, the Labour MP for Limehouse who replaced Winston Churchill as prime minister, introduced sweeping reforms such as the nationalisation of public utilities and the formation of the National Health Service.
Parliament was dissolved only three weeks before Britons went to the polls, in contrast to the six weeks to go until July 4 this year.
The Labour Party gained a 145-seat majority and the Liberal Party leader, Archibald Sinclair, lost his seat. The Conservatives lost 189 seats.
Clement Attlee, the Labour MP for Limehouse who replaced Winston Churchill as prime minister, introduced sweeping reforms such as the nationalisation of public utilities and the formation of the National Health Service.
A new generation of MPs who came to define 20th century British politics entered Parliament, including James Callaghan, Michael Foot and Harold Wilson.
Starmer needs to outdo Blair to win majority
as new boundaries make task harder
The remodelled constituencies would have given the
by David Hughes
2024-05-22
Fiona Hanson/PA
Sir Keir Starmer will need a bigger swing than Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide to win a majority at the General Election, with his task made more difficult by changes to constituency boundaries.
The Labour leader will have to achieve a swing of 12.7 points from the Conservatives to become prime minister – larger than the 10.2 point swing that brought New Labour to power in 1997 and more than double the swing at any other election since 1945.
His task will be made harder by the impact of the boundary changes, the first since 2010, which are intended to ensure that constituencies have similar numbers of voters.
Sunak’s majority
This has left Rishi Sunak defending a notional majority of 94, compared with the 80-seat margin actually secured by the Conservatives in 2019 – although this has subsequently been chipped away at by by-election defeats.
Labour's 'plan to change the country'
<
>
The new parliamentary constituencies were drawn up by the permanent and independent Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and fewer than 12 per cent of the 650 Commons seats were left untouched.
The boundary changes give Mr Sunak’s hopes a modest boost, analysis by election experts Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggests, after they compiled notional results for what would have happened at the last general election in 2019 had it been fought on the new constituencies.
“Broadly speaking this reflects a pattern where the East, South East and South West of England have gained seats reflecting the increase in electorates, and Wales has lost them, following the implementation of the new rules,” the academics said.
Net gain for the Conservatives
According to the analysis, the Conservatives would have made a net gain of seven seats from the new boundaries; Labour a net loss of two seats, the Liberal Democrats three and Plaid Cymru two.
The changes mean England is allocated 543 seats, an increase of 10; Wales will have 32 seats, a reduction of eight; Scotland will have 57, down two; and Northern Ireland remains unchanged with 18.
Despite the cut in the number of seats in Scotland, the SNP remains on 48 seats, and there is no change in Northern Ireland, with the DUP on eight, Sinn Fein seven, SDLP on two and Alliance on one.
The four Boundary Commissions were obliged to ensure the new constituencies have an electorate within 5 per cent of 73,392, which is the total number of voters on March 2 2020 divided by 650, the number of Commons seats.
This gives all constituencies between 69,724 and 77,062 electors with just five “island seats” exempt – Orkney and Shetland, Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Islands) in Scotland, Ynys Mon (Anglesey) in North Wales, and the two seats allocated to the Isle of Wight.
The Conservatives won 365 seats in the snap 2019 December election, with Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour on 203, giving Boris Johnson a majority of 80, and 162 over Labour.
2019 general election
Following the 2019 election, a direct swing of seven percentage points from the Conservatives was needed for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament, and the boundary changes mean this rises to 8.3 percentage points.
For an overall majority, Sir Keir’s 12.7 point requirement is up from 12 on the old boundaries, and any uniform swing from the Tories to Labour greater than 4.2 and less than 12.7 is likely to produce a hung parliament.
However, focusing only on the direct swing between Conservatives and Labour makes the assumption there will be no change in the share votes cast for the other parties, which is highly unlikely to be true.
For instance, a 10-point swing from the SNP to Labour would give Sir Keir 15 gains under the new boundaries, easing his path to Downing Street, according to Professors Rallings and Thrasher.
They compiled their notional results on behalf of BBC News, ITV News, Sky News and the PA news agency.
Related: Four scenarios for the outcome of the General Election
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