Editorial
Published March 29, 2026
DAWN
PAKISTAN is headed for a dangerous future, one that is not only characterised by rapid urbanisation but also rising heat.
PAKISTAN is headed for a dangerous future, one that is not only characterised by rapid urbanisation but also rising heat.
A new study by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab warns that the country could see a net increase of 51 temperature-related deaths per 100,000 peopleby 2050, placing it among those most severely affected by climate-driven mortality. The burden, however, will fall disproportionately on urban centres. Several Pakistani cities already appear among those most vulnerable globally. Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Lahore, Peshawar, Hyderabad, Rawalpindi and Islamabad are projected to experience steep rises in heat-related mortality. In some cases, the increases are startling. Faisalabad alone could see up to 9,400 additional deaths annually by mid-century. Across the world’s cities expected to see rising heat mortality, roughly one-third of the additional deaths may occur in Pakistan’s urban areas.
These projections reveal the perilous path Pakistan’s urban growth has taken. Cities have expanded rapidly but rarely with climate resilience in mind. Trees and open spaces have yielded to concrete, while dense housing and traffic congestion intensify the urban heat-island effect. Informal settlements, where millions live without adequate ventilation, water or electricity, are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. Yet, as shown by cities elsewhere, targeted adaptation can significantly reduce heat deaths. Urban planning must prioritise green cover, shaded streets and parks that cool neighbourhoods. Building codes should encourage reflective materials, insulation and natural ventilation. Early warning systems, cooling centres and better emergency response can also save lives during heatwaves. Financing remains a critical constraint. Pakistan’s adaptation budget is limited, while much of the international climate finance promised has yet to materialise. Without stronger domestic planning, our cities will grow ever more dangerous. In a warming climate, the costs will ultimately be counted in human lives.
Published in Dawn, March 29th, 2026
These projections reveal the perilous path Pakistan’s urban growth has taken. Cities have expanded rapidly but rarely with climate resilience in mind. Trees and open spaces have yielded to concrete, while dense housing and traffic congestion intensify the urban heat-island effect. Informal settlements, where millions live without adequate ventilation, water or electricity, are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. Yet, as shown by cities elsewhere, targeted adaptation can significantly reduce heat deaths. Urban planning must prioritise green cover, shaded streets and parks that cool neighbourhoods. Building codes should encourage reflective materials, insulation and natural ventilation. Early warning systems, cooling centres and better emergency response can also save lives during heatwaves. Financing remains a critical constraint. Pakistan’s adaptation budget is limited, while much of the international climate finance promised has yet to materialise. Without stronger domestic planning, our cities will grow ever more dangerous. In a warming climate, the costs will ultimately be counted in human lives.
Published in Dawn, March 29th, 2026
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