The Far-Reaching Implications Of Israel’s Caspian Sea Strikes – Analysis

 March 28, 2026

By Arab News

By Luke Coffey

With much of the world’s attention on the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, there is another body of water that has become a focal point of the war with Iran: the Caspian Sea. Earlier this month, Israeli fighter jets carried out an audacious and long-range air operation to target Iranian naval vessels and buildings on the Caspian Sea.

The Caspian Sea has long been an important body of water for Iran, especially in terms of its trade and transit connections into the heart of Eurasia and the possibility of oil and gas resources there. During Soviet times, the Caspian was shared between Iran and the Soviet Union, but after 1991, with the emergence of three new littoral states — Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — the question of which country controls what portion of the sea has remained unsettled.

Azerbaijan and other littoral states prefer control of the Caspian to be decided by the length of each state’s coastline. Meanwhile, Iran, with the shortest Caspian coastline, believes that the body of water should be divided evenly among the five littoral countries.

Complicating matters further, much of the Caspian’s deepest waters lie off Iran’s coast, making hydrocarbon extraction more difficult with current technology. This reality has long shaped Tehran’s desire to gain access to shallower, resource-rich areas elsewhere in the sea.

According to reports, the Israeli strikes took out a number of Iranian ships, including a corvette, multiple missile boats and smaller patrol vessels. Naval infrastructure onshore was also hit, including command centers and shipyard repair facilities in and around Iran’s main Caspian port of Bandar Anzali.

There are two primary reasons why Israel chose to strike assets in the Caspian. First, there is a legitimate concern that Iran has been receiving resupplies from Russia, with the Caspian serving as a key transit route. Second, Israel likely sought to send a clear message to Tehran that no part of Iran is beyond its reach, including the distant Caspian coastline.

These strikes are already having geopolitical consequences beyond Iran. While they directly impact the ongoing airstrikes against Iran, they are also creating opportunities for regional Caspian states and even Ukraine.

Azerbaijan is a prime example of how regional dynamics are shifting. Although relations between Baku and Tehran have often appeared cordial on the surface, they have long been strained beneath. Tensions have flared up in recent weeks, especially with the Iranian drone strikes in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan enclave. Azerbaijan has tried to strike a careful balance, making clear that it does not want the war to spill over into the South Caucasus, while also signaling that it will not tolerate attacks on its territory.

One long-standing source of tension between Iran and Azerbaijan is their unresolved maritime boundary in the Caspian Sea. This dispute has persisted since Azerbaijan gained independence in 1991. In July 2001, the situation nearly escalated into open conflict when Iranian warships and aircraft entered an area believed by Azerbaijan to contain a significant gas field within its sector. The standoff was serious enough to prompt Turkiye to deploy F-16 fighter jets to Azerbaijan and send its commander of Turkish ground forces to Baku as a show of support, after which Iran backed down.

This maritime dispute has been one of the key obstacles for Baku for further oil and gas exploration, particularly in areas such as the Alov and Araz fields. While Azerbaijan has taken a cautious approach to the current conflict involving Iran, it will likely benefit from the degradation of Iran’s Caspian naval capabilities. A weakened Iranian presence provides Baku with greater operational freedom in the Caspian at a time when it is also strengthening its own maritime capabilities. The Trump administration’s recent pledge to provide additional boats to Azerbaijan further reinforces this trend. With Iranian naval capabilities now diminished, Azerbaijan becomes the second-most-capable maritime power in the Caspian after Russia.

Israel’s strikes will also have implications for Ukraine. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Kyiv has closely monitored the logistical and military connections between Iran and Russia, particularly regarding the transfer of drones, hundreds of thousands of artillery shells and other equipment. The Caspian Sea has played a central role in facilitating this cooperation.

Until recently, Ukraine had limited options to respond in this domain. However, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated increasing reach, including long-range drone strikes targeting Russian assets far from the front lines. Reports from the past year indicate that Ukrainian drones have struck Russian naval targets and infrastructure associated with the Caspian Flotilla in the port city of Kaspiysk. Even though Russia was not the target of Israel’s recent strikes, Kyiv will undoubtedly welcome any reduction in Iran’s ability to support Moscow via the Caspian route.

Finally, these developments could have significant implications for regional energy security. For years, there has been discussion about constructing a trans-Caspian pipeline to transport Turkmenistan’s vast gas resources westward, linking them to the Southern Gas Corridor through the South Caucasus and onward to European markets. However, this idea has repeatedly stalled due to political opposition from Russia and concerns about potential Iranian interference.

At the same time, Kazakhstan has been exploring alternative routes to export its oil and gas while reducing its dependence on transit through Russian territory. The weakening of Iran’s position in the Caspian, combined with Russia’s strategic focus on Ukraine, may create a window of opportunity for Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to advance new energy infrastructure projects across the Caspian.

Israel’s recent strikes in the Caspian Sea may not have dominated global headlines, but they underscore the multifaceted nature of the conflict with Iran and its far-reaching consequences. Developments in the Caspian will not remain isolated. They will shape regional security dynamics, energy markets and the broader geopolitical landscape. Policymakers would be wise to pay close attention.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey