Rising Ozone Levels a 'Silent Threat' to Pollination: Scientists

Mark Waghorn, Zenger News -


Air pollution is preventing insects from sniffing out the crops and wildflowers that depend on them, according to research. The review in Trends in Ecology and Evolution also found that ozone pollutes plants almost instantly—leaving injury signs of diverse hues and shapes and discoloring leaves.


A bee collects nectar from a sunflower on the Dorset Sunflower Trail, on August 13, 2022 in Dorchester, England. Air pollution is preventing insects from sniffing out the crops and wildflowers that depend on them, according to research.

© Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Bees and butterflies pollinate plants, going from flower to flower—boosting reproduction. This process has been interrupted by rising levels of ozone, impacting the survival of both fauna and flora.

The review's lead author, Professor Evgenios Agathokleous of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology in China, said: "There is much noise about the direct effects of agrochemicals on pollinators, a subject of profound societal attention. But it now emerges that ozone is a silent threat to pollinators and thus pollination. These impacts of ozone have long been missed."

U.S. Coal Production To Increase Slightly After Two Decades Of Decline

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Ozone forms naturally in the stratosphere 7.5 miles above sea level and helps protect against harmful sun rays. But in the troposphere, the lowest region of the atmosphere, it damages Earth. A photochemical reaction between volatile chemicals creates the greenhouse gas.

Levels have been increasing because a warming climate is creating optimal conditions for it to thrive.

Agathokleous said: "Ozone pollution can affect the timing and duration of flowering in such a way the occurrence of flowering is asynchronous to the activities of pollinators.

"It can also change the color of flowers, disrupting the visual signals to pollinators. Ozone pollution can also directly react with pollen, decreasing its quality, but also indirectly changing the amount of pollen."

When damaged, plants have a hard time photosynthesizing and struggle to provide the energy needed for growth.

Plants emit their own organic volatile compounds to facilitate communication between them and to alert pollinators to the presence of a waiting flower.

Ozone pollution appears to be disrupting these chemical signatures.

Agathokleous added: "Changes in the composition of the volatile blends could also have severe implications to pollinators because they might not recognize host plants and their qualities in the same way they did in the past.

"Within plant tissues, ozone pollution could decrease the number of nutrients that are essential to insects, increase the abundance of chemicals that are harmful to insects ingesting them, and degrade the overall quality of plant tissues."

A recent scientific review of insect numbers around the world suggested that 40 percent of species were undergoing "dramatic rates of decline."

Bees, ants, and beetles are disappearing eight times faster than mammals, birds, or reptiles.

According to the World Health Organisation, air pollution accounts for an estimated 4.2 million deaths a year from stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic respiratory diseases.

Produced in association with SWNS Talker.

CITY CENTRE STILL CHEAP
Edmonton faces a shortage of homes in lower prices bands

Joel Schlesinger, for the Edmonton Journal - Friday

A recent report finding Canada’s real estate market faces persistent supply issues that could lead to a housing crisis hits close to home even though Edmonton was not among cities surveyed, a local realtor says.


Edmonton's supply of homes remains in a better position than many other Canadian cities.© Provided by Edmonton Journal

Real estate agent Nathan Mol with Liv Real Estate says Edmonton’s market is largely seeing a balance between demand and supply after several months of the market favouring sellers.

Still, supply remains in short supply where it often matters most.

“The challenge is inventory in the more affordable price bands (for single-family homes) is down significantly,” he adds.

The recent Re/Max Canada 2022 Housing Inventory Report reveals a similar trend in other cities.

Tracking active listings in Calgary, Greater Vancouver, Ottawa, Winnipeg and Greater Toronto, among others, the study found levels in July were below the 10-year average in seven of eight major centres examined.

In Calgary, the July market featured 7,069 active listings, about 26 per cent below average, the study found.

“Listings have fallen considerably there,” says Elton Ash, executive vice-president of Re/Max Canada.

Meanwhile, the population over the past 15 years has grown by 37 per cent, he says, further noting similar trends are at play in Edmonton.

Mol says the local market is short on supply for affordably priced, single-family detached homes — which are most in demand — compared with the pre-pandemic market.

In September 2019, for example, 1,390 single-family detached homes were for sale, which had at least three bedrooms and two bathrooms, and were priced under $400,000. For homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000, 1,200 homes were for sale.

This September, supply among single-family homes under $400,000 is 50 per cent lower than 2019 levels and 30 per cent lower for homes in the $400,000 to $500,000-range, Mol notes.

Despite rising borrowing costs, Edmonton and other major markets have not seen expected increases in inventory compared with similar periods in the past, Ash notes.

“If we look at the market cycles over the last 40-plus years, whenever we’ve seen higher rates, buyer demand dropped off dramatically while inventory increased,” he says.

“This time around, we’re still seeing low inventory even as buyer demand drops.”

The scenario is unlikely to turn around without faster new development, Ash says. In fact, he suggests Canada faces a looming housing crisis, given more than 1.3 million newcomers are expected to arrive by the end of 2023.

In Edmonton, however, the supply pinch is likely to be not as acute as other cities, Mol says.

Supply in the most in-demand segment, affordably priced single-family homes, is likely to remain low with millennials — the largest cohort of buyers — seeking to purchase in this segment for growing families, Mol says.

“The good news is that starts so far this year are up 12 per cent over last year for single-family detached homes … whereas many other cities are seeing a sharp drop-off,” he says, referring to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. data.

Mol points to Ottawa, a similar sized city, where single-family starts are down year over year, and about 40 per cent of Edmonton’s activity.

“Luckily for us, even though affordable housing supply is still a challenge, we are in a much better situation than most other cities.”

Maybe Hurricane Ian taught Florida’s DeSantis an American lesson: United is in the name
GOP REPLACED E PLURBIS UNUM WITH IN GOD WE TRUST


The Kansas City Star Editorial Board
Sat, October 1, 2022 

Hurricane Ian ripped through much of Florida last week and delivered more than wide swaths of devastation. It also sent a message to Gov. Ron DeSantis, along with the rest of the nation, that being part of this country comes with responsibility to your fellow citizens. When disaster strikes, the rest of the country, and its federal government, pitches in because that’s the best of America. United is in the name.

It was a lesson in which he apparently needed a reminder. Just two weeks ago, DeSantis showed no concern for the well being of others when he used vulnerable human beings as pawns in a widely criticized stunt in which he dumped two plane loads of mostly Venezuelan asylum-seekers in Massachusetts’s Martha’s Vineyard.

He’s not happy with the Biden administration’s border policies and wanted to give non-border states a taste of Florida’s immigration challenges.

But when Ian, a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of up to 150 mph, prepared to slam into Florida last week, DeSantis wasted no time in asking Biden to declare every county in the Sunshine State a federal disaster site. And he welcomed the hundreds of FEMA trucks and rescue teams rolling south.

No doubt the aid was desperately needed. With the storm moving across Florida to the Atlantic, and then north toward the Carolinas, the casualty toll was expected to be high. Millions lost power, high water flooded streets and roared through towns downing trees, washing away vehicles and homes. Fierce winds flattened whole neighborhoods.

Because Americans always respond generously in these situations, DeSantis knew he could count on help from all over. From Missouri and Kansas to New York and Massachusetts, states across the country rushed to help in any way they could. President Biden immediately issued emergency declarations and ordered federal aid to Florida, including funds, equipment, food and labor.

Meeting adversity with action is what we do as Americans. It’s woven into our cultural fabric, even if it’s sometimes difficult to discern the frayed threads of decency of late amid so much uncivil discourse and behavior.

DeSantis was right to request aid, but then so too were his critics in New York and New Jersey, who noted that less than a decade ago when DeSantis was a newly elected Florida congressman, he voted against providing $9.7 billion in flood insurance aid for victims of Hurricane Sandy which left more than 200 people dead.

The difference between a helping hand, and a handout is whether you are willing to pull others up with you. The citizens of Florida are lucky then, that there are not too many like DeSantis elsewhere in the U.S., otherwise they might find the assistance they need now less than forthcoming.

Whether it be a storm or drought, tornado, pandemic, wildfire, or crumbling infrastructure, crises such as those caused by Hurricane Ian do not discriminate on the basis of political party. Nor can we, as Americans, afford to discriminate in the actions with which we meet those adversities.

Lives are at stake, as is our future and character as a nation.

A good leader understands that the glue that binds our 50 states together. We help our fellow citizens in crisis, not just because they need it but because we will likely need a helping hand someday too.

Let’s hope that message has been learned.

Hurricane Ian: Florida death toll rises as criticism mounts


Bernd Debusmann Jr and Sam Cabral - BBC News
Mon, October 3, 2022 

Rescue personnel in Florida's Lee County on 30 September

The death toll from Hurricane Ian has reportedly risen past 80 in Florida as rescue personnel continue to search for survivors and assess the damage.

Officials in Florida have come under fire as critics allege residents in some hard-hit areas did not receive enough advance warning to evacuate.

At least half of the deaths recorded so far are in Lee County, where Ian made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane.

President Joe Biden is expected to visit Florida on Wednesday.

According to the BBC's US partner network CBS, the hurricane's death toll in Florida stood at at least 82 on Monday morning. Another four deaths have been confirmed in North Carolina.

The Florida District Medical Examiners Commission, however, has put the death toll at 58. The figures differ as while local officials may report additional storm-related deaths, the medical examiner's officer is only attributing a death to the hurricane after an autopsy is performed.

The bulk of the deaths - 42 - have been reported in Lee County, which includes the hard-hit areas Fort Myers, Sanibel and Pine Island. On Friday, Florida governor Ron DeSantis described the county as "ground zero" for the hurricane.

They stayed for the storm - what happens now?

Hurricane Ian drives black family from historic home

Confusion over death tolls is common in the wake of hurricanes. In 2020, for example, less than 20 deaths were reported from Hurricane Laura days after it made landfall in Louisiana - a figure which the National Hurricane Center later revised to 47.

While the death toll from Hurricane Ian already makes it one of the deadliest hurricanes in recent memory, it still pales in comparison to 2005's Hurricane Katrina, which killed over 1,800 people.

In the wake of the storm, officials in Lee County have faced questions about the timing of their evacuation order, which was issued on 27 September, less than 24 hours before Ian made landfall. Several other counties in the path of the incoming hurricane issued their own evacuation orders a day before,

Local officials, as well as Governor DeSantis, have defended Lee County's preparations for the hurricane.

"Everyone wants to focus on a plan that might have been done differently," Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno said on Sunday. "I stand 100% with my county commissioners, my county manager. We did what we had to do at the exact same time. I wouldn't have changed anything."

A 2015 planning document on the official website of Lee County's government notes that "due to our large population and limited system, Southwest Florida is the hardest place in the country to evacuate in a disaster". The document adds that evacuation decision-making procedures consider "evacuation risks, the disruption to both the lives of our residents/visitors, businesses and the potential magnitude of the impending threat."

An aerial view of Fort Myers on 2 October

The death toll cited by Florida officials does not include at least 16 Cuban migrants who remain missing after their boat capsized off the state's coastline during the hurricane. Of the 27 people on board, nine were rescued by the US Coast Guard and two managed to swim ashore at Stock Island, near Key West, The bodies of two more who died have been recovered. The Coast Guard has suspended the search for those still missing.

Approximately 600,000 people remain without power across the state, according to data from poweroutage.us.

The utility company with the largest number of outages, Florida Power & Light Co, said that the majority of customers will have their power restored by 7 October, but that storm damage has made some properties "unable to safely accept power".

While officials are still assessing the damage caused by the hurricane across the state, experts have warned that the economic cost could ultimately rise to tens of billions of dollars. So far, insurers have reported at about $1.44bn (£1.28bn) in preliminary claims.

A preliminary forecast from data firm Enki Research published on 1 October estimated that total damages will amount to at least $66bn, but could rise as high as $75bn.

US President Joe Biden will visit Florida on Wednesday, October 5, two days after a visit to Puerto Rico, which itself was struck by Hurricane Fiona jus

Ruptured oil pipeline off California approved for repairs




Workers in protective suits clean the contaminated beach at Huntington Beach, Calif., on Oct. 11, 2021, following a pipeline rupture that spilled tens of thousands of gallons of crude oil off the Southern California coast. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers granted the approval Friday, Sept. 30, 2022, to Amplify Energy Corp. to repair the pipeline. The Houston company pleaded guilty to federal charges last month of negligently discharging oil. 

(AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu, File)More

BRIAN MELLEY
Sat, October 1, 2022 at 7:07 PM·3 min read

LOS ANGELES (AP) — A Texas oil company was granted permission to repair an underwater pipeline that ruptured off the coast of Southern California a year ago, spilled tens of thousands of gallons of crude, and forced beaches and fisheries to close.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers granted the approval Friday to Amplify Energy Corp., clearing the way to rebuild the aging pipeline that burst months after it was apparently weakened when it was snagged by the anchors of ships adrift in a storm.

The Oct. 1, 2021, rupture spilled about 25,000 gallons (94,600 liters) of oil into the Pacific Ocean, closed miles of beaches for a week, shuttered fisheries for months and coated birds and wetlands in oil.

The approval to rebuild the pipe running from an oil rig off Huntington Beach to tanks in Long Beach comes less than a month after Amplify pleaded guilty to federal charges of negligently discharging oil. The Houston-based company and two subsidiaries also agreed to plead no contest in state court to polluting water and killing birds.

Amplify said the approval will allow it to remove and replace the damaged segments of pipe from the ocean floor.

It estimated the work would take up to a month after a barge is in place. If it passes a series of safety tests after being fixed, the company said it expected to begin operating in the first quarter of 2023.

Environmentalists who want the pipeline shut down criticized the permit approval and renewed calls to put an end to offshore oil operations.

“The Biden administration just ramped up the risk of yet another ugly oil spill on California’s beautiful coast,” said Brady Bradshaw of the Center for Biological Diversity. “Unfortunately, people living near offshore drilling infrastructure are all too familiar with this abusive cycle of drill, spill, repeat."

On Wednesday, the environmental group sued the federal government for allowing the platform where the pipeline originated to operate under outdated plans that indicated the platform should have been decommissioned more than a decade ago. The lawsuit also said the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management failed to review and require plan revisions, despite the spill.

Amplify contended that the spill wouldn't have occurred if two ships hadn't dragged their anchors across the pipeline and damaged it during a January 2021 storm. It said it wasn’t notified about the anchor snagging until after the spill.

While the size of the spill was not as bad as initially feared, U.S. prosecutors said the company should have been able to turn off the damaged line much sooner had it recognized the gravity of a series of leak-detection alarms over a 13-hour period.

The first alarm sounded late on the afternoon of Oct. 1, 2021, but workers misinterpreted the cause, according to the federal plea agreement.

When the alarm sounded throughout the night, workers shut down the pipeline to investigate and then restarted it after deciding they were false alarms. That spewed more oil.

It wasn’t until after daybreak that a boat identified the spill and the line was shut down.

As part of a federal court agreement to pay a $7 million fine and nearly $6 million in expenses incurred by agencies including the U.S. Coast Guard, the company and subsidiaries agreed to install a new leak-detection system and train employees to identify and respond to potential leaks.

The company agreed to plead no contest to six state misdemeanor charges and pay $4.9 million in penalties and fines as part of a settlement.

___

This story has been corrected to reflect that the company agreed to plead no contest to state misdemeanor charges, instead of guilty.

KULT KONTROL
Trump staffers not returning White House records, National Archives says


 A detailed property inventory of items seized by the FBI from 

former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate is seen after being

 released by a U.S. federal court in Florida


Sun, October 2, 2022
By Doina Chiacu

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Former President Donald Trump's administration has not turned over all presidential records and the National Archives will consult with the Justice Department on whether to move to get them back, the agency has told Congress.

A congressional panel on Sept. 13 sought an urgent review by the National Archives and Records Administration after agency staff members acknowledged that they did not know if all presidential records from Trump's White House had been turned over.

"While there is no easy way to establish absolute accountability, we do know that we do not have custody of everything we should," acting Archivist Debra Wall said in a letter Friday to the House Committee on Oversight and Reform.


The Archives knows some White House staffers conducted official business on personal electronic messaging accounts that were that were not copied or forwarded to their official accounts, in violation of the Presidential Records Act, Wall said.

"NARA has been able to obtain such records from a number of former officials and will continue to pursue the return of similar types of presidential records from former officials," Wall said in the letter, first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

She said the Archives, the federal agency charged with preserving government records, would consult with the Department of Justice on "whether to initiate an action for the recovery of records unlawfully removed."

The Oversight Committee's chairwoman, representative Carolyn Maloney, said in a statement she would do everything in her power to ensure the return of all records and prevent future abuses.

"Former President Trump and his senior staff have shown an utter disregard for the rule of law and our national security by failing to return presidential records as the law requires," Maloney, whose committee shared a copy of the letter with Reuters, said in a statement.

Representatives for Trump did not return a request for comment on the matter.

Trump is facing a criminal investigation by the Justice Department for retaining government records - some marked as highly classified, including "top secret" - at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida after leaving office in January 2021.

The FBI seized more than 11,000 records, including about 100 documents marked as classified, in a court-approved Aug. 8 search at Mar-a-Lago.

The Justice Department and Trump's lawyers have been locked in a legal battle over how the records are handled. Government lawyers have been granted access to the classified documents but on Friday asked an appeals court to expedite its ability to access the non-classified documents seized in Florida.

Read more:

Trump was sued by New York's attorney general. What legal woes does he face?

(Reporting by Doina Chiacu; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Daniel Wallis)

A $1 Trillion Burden Looms For World Borrowers Refinancing Debt



Finbarr Flynn, Garfield Reynolds and Colin Keatinge
Sun, October 2, 2022 at 11:07 PM·7 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Governments and companies around the world are facing unprecedented costs to refinance bonds, a burden that’s set to deepen fissures in debt markets and expose more vulnerabilities among weaker borrowers.

A corporate treasurer or finance minister looking to issue new notes now would likely have to pay interest that’s about 156 basis points higher on average than the coupons on existing securities, after that gap surged to a record in recent days. That all adds up to about $1.01 trillion in additional costs if all those securities were refinanced, according to calculations using a Bloomberg index tracking some $65 trillion of government and corporate debt across currencies.

That broad benchmark of global debt lost 6.8% last quarter, its second-worst drop after a record slide in the previous three months, data stretching back to 1999 show. Monday brought little relief, with spreads on Asian high-grade dollar bonds little changed after blowing out the most in six months last week.

Rolling over debt is proving increasingly tricky for weaker borrowers as creditors price in risks of a global recession. Most governments and companies are still able to stomach the higher financing bills, but soaring fund outflows and volatility are causing credit markets to start to buckle. Banks last week had to pull a $4 billion leveraged buyout financing, and even investment-grade debt funds suffered one of the biggest cash withdrawals ever.

Actual overall refinancing costs will depend on where rates are when borrowers do roll over debt, and of course many with longer-term obligations won’t need to do so anytime soon. Still, with the Fed expected to raise its target rate more than a percentage point before year’s end, there’s also a risk borrowers could face even higher costs if they hold off.

Central banks must walk a fine line as they fight some of the worst inflation in decades, with Bank of America Corp. strategists recently warning that the Federal Reserve needs to slow the pace of rate hikes to prevent credit market dysfunction.

Concerns are also growing that liquidity is draining out of the world financial system as interest-rate swaps -- one of the world’s deepest markets -- fluctuate wildly. The gap between the floating- and fixed-rate legs of longer-dated swaps tied to the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate swung in some recent days by the most on record for the index, which was rolled out in October 2020 as a replacement for the London interbank offered rate.

Six US-based borrowers tracked by S&P Global Ratings defaulted in August, as signs mount that higher rates are already taking a toll on stretched borrowers’ ability to keep issuing new debt to pay off old. Other examples of debt stumbles abound, including in Asia where Sri Lanka defaulted on its borrowings earlier this year, and Chinese property firms have suffered record nonpayments.

“The era of cheap money is certainly over,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics. “We are at the start of a global recession in our view and that includes a recession in Europe, which is particularly weak.”

Fed bankers dispelled in recent weeks any suggestion they are near halting interest rate hikes even if it means pain for the economy. That’s even after embarking on one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in modern times and their third consecutive 75-basis point interest rate increase in September.

The Bloomberg Multiverse Index of investment-grade and high-yield bonds across currencies has lost about 20% this year, on track for its worst annual slump ever. The securities fell into their first bear market in a generation in September.

Frontier sovereigns and highly-leveraged companies that borrowed in foreign currencies face potentially the greatest stress, according to Shearing at Capital Economics. While different in nature, the recent turmoil in UK markets after the government there announced dramatic tax cuts is a “warning” to other governments that they have less room for fiscal maneuver or policy error now, he said.

Higher borrowing costs are pinching even the strongest corporations too. The difference between current yields and average outstanding coupons for both US and European borrowers is currently around the highest in more than a decade. A sudden chill in US primary markets coinciding with the latest leg higher in yields is evidence that borrowing at current levels is becoming an increasingly unattractive proposition.

“We expect the cost of financing to rise gradually as companies refinance debt with higher coupons as more debt matures over time,” Barclays Plc credit strategists Zoso Davies and Jenny Avdoi wrote in a note dated Sept. 30.

The Fed’s hawkishness is also complicating the task for borrowers because it’s sending the dollar surging to multi-decade highs against many of its major peers, including the euro and the yen. That can push up costs for non-US issuers that need dollar financing, as well as tightening financial conditions around the world.

“Investors had reported record amounts of cash in our most recent quarterly surveys, but recent trading activity suggests an increase in client selling perhaps in part driven by the need to raise additional cash for anticipated redemptions,” emerging-market strategists including Donato Guarino at Citigroup Inc. wrote in a recent report. “In other words, the cash cushion may be diminishing, making any further market jolt more damaging to asset values.”

The average yield on corporate bonds globally across currencies and ratings recently topped 6% for the first time since 2009, according to a Bloomberg index.

“We are yet to see the bulk of the impact of rate rises on the economy,” said Pauline Chrystal, a portfolio manager at Kapstream Capital in Sydney. “We still expect to see a deterioration in activity, employment, and increase in defaults.”

Elsewhere in credit markets:

Asia

Deal flow in the Asian dollar bond market was muted on Monday with a week-long closure of Chinese markets for Golden Week and a holiday in South Korea.

Losses in Asian dollar bonds extended to a fifth consecutive quarter, the longest such stretch on record. The notes slumped 4.2% in the three months ended Sept. 30

Still, that is a smaller loss than the two previous quarters, following policy steps in China to help the nation’s troubled property sector

The latest sign of such stimulus came late last week, when people familiar with the matter said financial regulators told the biggest state-owned banks to provide financing worth at least $85 billion to the battered property sector

Chinese developer stocks and bonds rallied Monday after that news

Some dollar bonds of China Huarong are poised to extend gains Monday after the bad-debt manager announced last week plans to buy back certain offshore notes and redeem a perpetual note

Smaller brokerages are gaining business in Japan’s credit market after former top player SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. was affected by a trading scandal

Americas

US junk bonds are headed for the worst year-to-date losses on record.

In the investment-grade primary bond market, there were no new issuers on Friday, wrapping up an abysmal week that saw just $1.7 billion sold

The cruise sector is rebounding slower than expected with cruise line companies Carnival and Royal Caribbean seeing bond prices drop on Friday

Mortgage backed securities are presenting one of the most attractive entry points of the last 10 years given a combination of yield and low prepayment risk, an analyst wrote


EMEA

The region’s primary bond market missed expectations for issuance, at just over €15 billion ($14.7 billion), with Friday being the 39th day without sales this year.

Banks funding the acquisition of House of HR’s are likely to keep about a quarter of the deal on their balance sheets, adding to the billions of hung debt stuck on lenders’ books

In the UK, gilts have seen some respite after a recent selloff on optimism surrounding the government’s meeting with the Office of Budget Responsibility

Sustainable sales are setting records in Germany’s Schuldschein debt market, reaching more than €8 billion in the first three quarters of the year, topping previous full-year totals

JUSTIFYING MURDER OF UNARMED CIVILIANS
Cops Who Described Amber Alert Teen As A Threat To Officers Under Review For Her Killing

Sara Boboltz

Sat, October 1, 2022 

The California state Justice Department is investigating after a police pursuit involving an adult murder suspect and an Amber Alert subject ended with the minor’s death under murky circumstances east of Los Angeles on Tuesday.

San Bernardino County Sheriff Shannon Dicus initially said that the minor, 15-year-old Savannah Graziano, had likely been shooting at deputies and was clad in “tactical gear.” But on Wednesday, the department turned over its investigation to state authorities, as is required to do when an unarmed civilian is shot and killed by law enforcement.

The state’s attorney general’s office believes Savannah was likely unarmed, the Los Angeles Times reported Thursday. The office confirmed in a statement that it was reviewing the incident in accordance with Assembly Bill 1506, a 2020 law covering officer-involved shootings.

The girl’s father, Anthony John Graziano, was also shot dead at the scene after having led police on a lengthy highway chase in a white pickup truck.

Graziano, 45, was suspected of murdering his estranged wife Monday morning in a crime allegedly witnessed by his daughter.

The entire tragic incident has attracted controversy on social media after a local news station credulously recounted the sheriff’s version of events, describing the likelihood that Savannah was unarmed as a “stunning new twist.” It sparked renewed discussion on whether news media is generally too deferential to law enforcement, as it remains unclear whether Savannah was actually leaping out of the truck in order to seek help from the police when they ― perhaps mistakenly ― shot her.

The Amber Alert issued for Savannah on Monday described her as having been kidnapped by her father, and cautioned that he was “armed and dangerous.”

THIS IS THE KILLER KOP

I THOUGHT HE WAS THE BAD GUY

LOOKS LIKE A BAD GUY

An undated photo provided by the City of Fontana Police Department shows 45-year-old Anthony John Graziano. (Photo: Courtesy of City of Fontana Police Department via Associated Press)

In a Wednesday press conference, Sheriff Dicus said the police chase began when a resident spotted the white truck described in the alert around 10 a.m., prompting deputies to respond. Graziano then allegedly began firing at the deputies, hitting their windshield and disabling one police vehicle as he sped off. A firefight eventually ensued near an exit, and that’s when Graziano’s truck finally came to a halt.

At that time, the sheriff said, “a subject exit[ed] the passenger side of the vehicle wearing tactical gear” including what appeared to be a bulletproof vest and “tactical helmet.”

“That subject starts to run toward sheriff’s deputies and, during the gunfire, goes down,” Dicus said, adding that there was allegedly evidence that she had been “a participant” in the exchange of gunfire with deputies.

The chase stretched some 35 miles along a desert highway east of Los Angeles, near the town of Hesperia, according to The Associated Press.

A bullet hole is seen in a windshield outside Cypress Elementary School following Monday's nearby shooting, which left a mother dead. 

(Photo: MediaNews Group/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin via Getty Images via Getty Images)

A bullet hole is seen in a windshield outside Cypress Elementary School following Monday's nearby shooting, which left a mother dead. (Photo: MediaNews Group/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin via Getty Images via Getty Images)

Savannah’s mother, Tracy Martinez, identified Graziano as the one who shot her Monday before she died of her wounds, the AP reported, citing Fontana Police Sgt. Christian Surgent. Martinez had been shot in the town of Fontana, California, outside an elementary school during morning drop-offs.

Savannah had allegedly been sitting in the back seat of the white pickup when her father opened fire on her mother.

Surgent said Graziano and Martinez were in the midst of a divorce and were living separately, with Savannah and her father leaving behind Martinez and a younger child. He cast doubt over whether the teen went willingly with her father or was “actually abducted.”

“We haven’t been able to prove that just yet,” he told the AP.

Dicus had told reporters that an assault-style rifle had been found in the truck after the gunfight came to an end. Graziano was found dead in the driver’s seat, police said.

HOPE SO

Top Iran official warns protests could destabilize country





APTOPIX Iran

Two women drink a slushy while walking around in the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Sun, October 2, 2022 

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned Sunday that protests over the death of a young woman in police custody could destabilize the country and urged security forces to deal harshly with those he claimed endanger public order, as countrywide unrest entered its third week.

Posts on social media showed there were scattered anti-government protests in Tehran and running clashes with security forces in other towns Sunday, even as the government has moved to block, partly or entirely, internet connectivity in Iran.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf told lawmakers that unlike the current protests, which he said aim to topple the government, previous demonstrations by teachers and retirees over pay were aimed at reforms, according to the legislative body's website.

“The important point of the (past) protests was that they were reform-seeking and not aimed at overthrowing" the system, said Qalibaf. “I ask all who have any (reasons to) protest not to allow their protest to turn into destabilizing and toppling" of institutions.

Thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets to protest the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, who had been detained by Iran's morality police in the capital Tehran for allegedly not adhering to Iran's strict Islamic dress code.

The protesters have vented their anger over the treatment of women and wider repression in the Islamic Republic. The nationwide demonstrations rapidly escalated into calls for the overthrow of the clerical establishment that has ruled Iran since its 1979 Islamic revolution.

Iranian state TV has reported that at least 41 protesters and police have been killed since the demonstrations began Sept. 17. An Associated Press count of official statements by authorities tallied at least 14 dead, with more than 1,500 demonstrators arrested.

Qalibaf, the parliamentary speaker, is a former influential commander in the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Along with the president and the head of the judiciary, he is one of three ranking officials who deal with all important issues of the nation.

The three meet regularly and sometimes meet with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters.

Qalibaf said he believes many of those taking part in recent protests had no intention of seeking to overthrow the government in the beginning and claimed foreign-based opposition groups were fomenting protests aimed at tearing down the system. Iranian authorities have not presented evidence for their allegations of foreign involvement in the protests.

“Creating chaos in the streets will weaken social integrity, jeopardizing the economy while increasing pressure and sanctions by the enemy,” he said, referring to longstanding crippling U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Qalibaf promised to “amend the structures and methods of the morality police” to prevent a recurrence of what happened to Amini. She died in the custody of the morality police. Her family alleged she was beaten, while officials claim she died of a heart attack.

His remarks came after a closed meeting of Parliament and a brief rally by lawmakers to voice support for Khamenei and the police, chanting “death to hypocrites,” a reference to Iranian opposition groups.

The statement by Qalibaf is seen as an appeal to Iranians to stop their protests while supporting police and the security apparatus.

Meanwhile, the hard-line Kayhan daily said Sunday that knife-carrying protesters attacked the newspaper building Saturday and shattered windows with rocks. It said they left when Guard members were deployed to the site.

On Saturday, protests continued on the Tehran University campus and in nearby neighborhoods and witnesses said they saw many girls waving their head scarves above their heads in a gesture of defiance. Social media carried videos purportedly showing similar protests at the Mashhad and Shiraz universities but The Associated Press could not independently verify their authenticity.

A protester near Tehran University, 19-year-old Fatemeh who only gave her first name for fear of repercussions, said she joined the demonstration “to stop this behavior by police against younger people especially girls.”

Abdolali, a 63-year-old teacher who also declined to give his last name, said he was shot twice in the foot by police. He said: “I am here to accompany and support my daughter. I once participated in the 1979 Islamic Revolution that promised justice and freedom; it is time to materialize them.”

Protests resumed on Sunday in several cities including Mashhad, according to social media reports, and Tehran’s Sharif Industrial University, according to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency. Witnesses said security was tight in the areas nearby Tehran University and its neighborhoods downtown as hundreds of anti-riot police and plain clothes with their cars and motorbikes were stationed on junctions and squares. The AP could not immediately verify the authenticity of the reports.

Also on Sunday, media outlets reported the death of another Revolutionary Guard member in the southeastern city of Zahedan. That brought to five the number of IRG members killed in an attack on a police station by gunmen that, according to state media, left 19 people dead.

It wasn't clear if the attack, which Iranian authorities said was carried out by separatists, was related to the anti-government protests.

Local media said a police officer also had died in the Kurdish city of Marivan, following injuries during clashes with protesters. The protests have drawn supporters from various ethnic groups, including Kurdish opposition movements in the northwest of Iran that operate along the border with neighboring Iraq.

Amini was an Iranian Kurd and the protests first erupted in Kurdish areas.

‘Woman. Life. Freedom.’ Boise rally targets Iranian regime in wake of worldwide protests

Kevin Fixler
Sat, October 1, 2022 

Nearly 100 members of Boise’s Iranian-American community and supporters rallied on the Idaho Capitol steps Saturday afternoon, one in a series of protests in major cities across the world sparked by the death of a young woman in the Iranian capital last month for allegedly defying the regime’s rules governing women’s public appearance.

“Woman! Life! Freedom!” demonstrators chanted in unison, demanding the end of Islamic law and the liberation of the Islamic Republic of Iran from its authoritarian leaders. “Democracy in Iran!”

Impassioned rally attendees waved mini-tricolor flags for the original state of Iran and brought homemade signs with messages including “Free Iran! Be our voice!” Others passed out printed images of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Iranian woman who died Sept. 16 in Tehran under disputed circumstances, and also assembled a small memorial with flowers and candles dedicated to her on the Capitol steps

.

A small memorial for Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who was taken into custody for allegedly disobeying the nation’s dress code for women is assembled on the steps of the Idaho Capitol during a rally held by members of Boise’s Iranian-American community and supporters, on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022.

“Say her name!” shouted attendees, taking turns leading the group and switching between chants in English and Farsi, the language of Western Iran. “Justice for Iran! Justice for Mahsa!”


Afagh Faramarzi, 30, of Meridian, helped organize Saturday’s hourlong event. She arrived as a teenager to the Treasure Valley from the south-central Iranian city of Shiraz, she told the Idaho Statesman.

Asal Syes, center left, and Afagh Faramarzi, with an Iranian flag, lead a chant during a rally at the Idaho Capitol against the treatment of women in Iran, on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022. Protesters have been demonstrating against the Middle Eastern nation’s authoritarian government after the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who last month was taken into police custody for allegedly disobeying the nation’s dress code for women.

“I am angry. I cry a lot,” Faramarzi told rallygoers in welcoming remarks. “I am worried. I am hopeful. … I am a woman of Iran.”

She called on Idaho’s federal lawmakers to help advocate against the Iranian government and hold the Middle Eastern country’s leadership accountable.

U.S. Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, is the ranking member on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Last week, he joined fellow senators in introducing a bipartisan resolution condemning Amini’s death, designating it a “murder.”

“The murder of Mahsa Amini was a horrible reminder of the Iranian regime’s oppressive beliefs and gross violations of women’s basic human rights,” Risch said in a statement. “The Iranian people bravely protesting her death demonstrate their desire for a more peaceful and free Iran.”

The U.S. Department of State officially labels Iran a brutal, dangerous regime, and “the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism.”

Amini was arrested last month by Iran’s so-called “morality police,” who strictly enforce the Muslim country’s dress code for women. Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, women and girls over the age of 9 have been required to wear loose fitting clothes and headscarves, known as hijabs, out in public.

Amini reportedly traveled to the nation’s capital with family from her home in the Kurdistan Province near the border with Iraq. Following her arrest, police said she collapsed after suffering a heart attack and fell into a coma. She died at a hospital three days later.

Members of Amini’s family reject the narrative from state authorities that she had underlying health conditions and have instead said she was beaten and tortured. Daily protests have raged throughout the country since, with police arresting hundreds of people, with still dozens more reportedly dead.

In the wake of ongoing protests, Iran’s regime also has worked to block the internet and reportedly detained dozens of journalists, including Niloufar Hamedi, the reporter who first brought Amini’s case to light.

Since 2000, 345 refugees from Iran have arrived to Idaho, though none in the last year, according to the Idaho Office For Refugees. The state’s largest resettlement cities include Boise, Twin Falls and Pocatello.

Members of Boise’s Iranian-American community and supporters rallied at the Idaho Capitol against the treatment of women in Iran, on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022. Protesters have been demonstrating against Iran’s authoritarian government after the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who last month was taken into police custody for allegedly disobeying the nation’s dress code for women.

The Biden administration last week committed to admitting up to 125,000 refugees into the U.S. from across the world through next summer. Combined, the grouped regions of Europe and Central Asia, and the Near East/South Asia are allotted up to 50,000 slots.

For 2022, the U.S. also set its annual cap at 125,000, though the number of refugees who have entered the country this year is about 15,000, the Washington, D.C.-based Migration Policy Institute reports.

More than 1,200 of those refugees from 18 countries, primarily from Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo, resettled in Idaho over the past year. The Idaho Office For Refugees expects about 1,075 more refugee arrivals in the state over the next year, which is on par for averages in Idaho over the past 20 years, according to Holly Beech, a spokesperson for the agency.

“Here in Idaho and across the country we’ve seen a renewed sense of urgency to help displaced people, which has reached record highs,” she told the Statesman by email. “A healthy resettlement program provides a pathway for people to rebuild their lives in safety, reunite with family, and create stronger communities and economies.”

Iran presents both an opportunity and a challenge as mass protests erupt

Arthur I. Cyr
Sat, October 1, 2022 

Arthur I. Cyr

The enormous mass public demonstrations in Iran could bring a change in regime. The fundamentalist Islamic rulers of the nation must be worried. A large number of cities across the country are experiencing the ongoing protests, though estimates of just how many vary.

The immediate spark for this important development is the troubling death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman of 22, while in police custody. Authorities allegedly arrested her for improper wearing of the headscarf required by the government.

Iran continues to be a focus of frustration for United States foreign policy. The fundamentalist Islamic regime in Tehran has long voiced hostility to Israel as well as the U.S., punctuated from time to time with public threats of apocalyptic destruction.

Consequently, the steady expansion of Iran’s uranium enrichment program causes understandable concern.

The P5+1 formation is the principal international group dealing with Iran. Nations involved are Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. – the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - plus Germany.

In November 2013, the group, after considerable challenging diplomatic effort, reached an agreement with Tehran. The accord increased international monitoring of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program in exchange for lifting some economic sanctions. The Trump administration abruptly ended this nuclear agreement.

Read more: How protests in Iran over Mahsa Amini's death 'forever moved the debate' over women's rights

Immediately after World War II, Soviet troops occupied northern Iran. The Truman administration successfully pressured Moscow to withdraw. Later, British and CIA operatives overthrew the elected government of Mohammad Mosaddegh.

In 1979, revolutionaries overthrew the pro-U.S. Iran regime and Islamic fundamentalism ascended. This abruptly ended Iran’s previous posture as a close and notably influential American ally. Over the intervening decades, the breach has continued.

After ousting the autocratic Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Islamic militants seized the American embassy, took hostages and held them for months. The lengthy crisis poisoned Tehran-Washington relations and helped Ronald Reagan defeat incumbent President Jimmy Carter in 1980. During the Reagan administration, the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in a lengthy eight-year war with Iran.

A demonstrator raises his arms and makes the victory sign during a protest for Mahsa Amini, a woman who died after being arrested by the Islamic republic's "morality police" in Tehran on Sept. 19, 2022.

Related: Iran cracks down on protests after Mahsa Amini's death in 'morality police' custody

The 2009 presidential election sparked mass demonstrations against alleged election fraud. Use of cell phones to report the demonstrations revealed broad public discontent. Dictators can no longer completely suppress information, though Tehran is trying.

The Shah’s modernization policies over the long term had fostered a relatively well-educated population. There is a sizable middle class. The urban population has been expanding steadily.

Protesters chant slogans during a protest over the death of a woman detained by the morality police in downtown Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022.

Parvin’s Hopeland: An American dream powered by hope

Women play influential roles in a wide range of professions. The relatively modern economy – and society – contrast with other nations where fundamentalist Islam plays a major or dominant role.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, remained an interested – and often acutely perceptive - analyst of Iran developments. Until his death in 2017, he regularly noted publicly that the fundamentalist mullahs running the country face very fundamental problems.

Without a new nuclear agreement, sanctions on Iran could eventually destroy the economy. Brzezinski believed Iran could move in the same direction as Turkey. That nation constitutionally is a secular state, and remains a faithful member of NATO, even though a fundamentalist political party controls the presidency.

Nearly a decade before the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, former President Richard Nixon in his book “Beyond Peace” argued that invading provocative Saddam Hussein’s Iraq would be a mammoth blunder, leading to expansion of the influence of Iran, our actual regional diplomatic and strategic rival

History and current unfolding events confirm President Nixon’s insight, and should guide policy.

Arthur I. Cyr is the author of “After the Cold War – American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia.” Contact him at acyr@carthage.edu.

This article originally appeared on The Record: Iran presents an opportunity and a challenge after Mahsa Amini's death

THIS SURE DON'T LOOK LIKE SCRANTON, JILL
Trump: 'King' to some in Pennsylvania, but will it help GOP?

LOOK JILL A PRIDE SEAT

- House Minority leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., speaks at DMI Companies in Monongahela, Pa., Sept. 23, 2022. House Republicans unveiled their own campaign agenda, hoping their “Commitment to America” can tap into the same political sentiment former President Donald Trump used to attract not just Republican but independent and former Democratic voters to the polls. But it’s unclear if the support that drove Trump to the White House will turn out this fall.

 (AP Photo/Barry Reeger, File)More

LISA MASCARO
Sun, October 2, 2022

MONONGAHELA, Pa. (AP) — The Trump-Pence sign still hangs on the older building off Main Street in this historic town, a lasting vestige of the campaign fervor that roused voters, including many who still believe the falsehood that the former president didn’t lose in 2020 and hope he'll run in 2024.

The enthusiasm for Donald Trump’s unique brand of nationalist populism has cut into traditional Democratic strongholds like Monongahela, about 25 miles south of Pittsburgh, where brick storefronts and a Slovak fellowship hall dot Main Street and church bells mark the hours of the day. Republicans are counting on political nostalgia for the Trump era as they battle Democrats this fall in Pennsylvania in races for governor, the U.S. Senate and control of Congress.

“Trump just came along and filled the empty space,” said Matti Gruzs, who stitches old blue jeans into tote bags, place mats and other creations she sells at the weekly Farmer’s Market downtown. “He’s still the king, and the kingmaker.”

Against the backdrop of this picturesque place, House Republicans recently released their campaign agenda, hoping their “Commitment to America” can tap into the same political sentiment Trump used to attract not just Republican but independent and former Democratic voters. But it’s unclear whether the support that propelled Trump to the White House will be there on Election Day, Nov. 8.

Pennsylvania Senate race tightens



Perhaps even more challenging for the GOP is whether Trump’s false claims of voter fraud will cost the party if people believe, as the defeated president claims without evidence, the elections are rigged. Some may just decide to sit out the election.

“It started out as a low-enthusiasm race,” said Dave Ball, the Republican Party chairman in Washington County, which includes much of western Pennsylvania.

Ball said enthusiasm has been “building rapidly” — his main metric for voter interest in the elections is the demand for lawn signs. “We were wondering, at one point, you know, we were going to see any,” he said. “Right now, I can’t get my hands on enough.”

But Amy Michalic, who was born and raised in Monongahela and works the polls during elections, said she hears skepticism from some voters, particularly Trump supporters, “who think my vote doesn’t count.”

Trump's claims of fraud have no basis in fact. Dozens of court cases filed by Trump and his supporters have been dismissed or rejected by judges across the nation, but he continues to challenge Joe Biden’s victory. In every state, officials have attested to the accuracy of their elections, and Trump’s own attorney general at the time, Bill Barr, said in 2020 there was no voter fraud on a scale to change the outcome.

Michalic reminds skeptical voters in her hometown of the importance of voting and notes that in 2016, no one thought Trump could win. "Look what he did, he took Pennsylvania,” she said.

At the Farmer’s Market on a recent afternoon, voters shared concerns that many people in the United States voice this election year — about the high prices of everything, about finding workers and good-paying jobs, about the culture wars.

“Where do you start?” said Michelle DeHosse, wearing an American flag shirt as she helped vendors set up stands.

DeHosse, who runs a custom-screen print and embroidery shop on Main Street, said she has had trouble hiring employees since the pandemic. While she said just cannot afford the $20 an hour and health care benefits many applicants demand, she understands that many workers need both. “It’s the economy that’s the biggest concern,” she said.

Democrats were sparse among the voters, who didn’t seem to have strong feelings for their choices this fall for either of the Senate candidates, Democrat John Fetterman or the Trump-backed Republican Mehmet Oz. Several said they probably would vote party line.

“I don’t like either one of them,” said Carolyn McCuen, 84, a Republican enjoying sunset with friends and McDonald’s coffee at a picnic table by the river.

“Me either,” said another Republican, Sam Reo, 76, a retired mechanical engineer, playing oldies from the portable speaker he sets up for the group.

Both still plan to vote. Support for the GOP candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano, who was outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, can be seen in the giant signs along Lincoln Highway, an east-west route across the state.

Mastriano is a “folk hero around here,” said Gruzs, who recalled his regular updates broadcast during the pandemic.

A history buff who home-schooled her children, Gruzs hasn’t missed a vote since she cast her first presidential ballot for Ronald Reagan. The same goes for her husband, Sam, a plumber. They moved here two decades ago from Baltimore, for a better life. Now a grandmother, she spends her days working on her crafts and listening to far-right broadcasts – Steve Bannon, Charlie Kirk and others.

She is not a fan of House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. and isn't convinced he has the toughness needed to push the party’s ideas forward. But she did attend the event at a nearby manufacturing facility where lawmakers outlined the GOP agenda. She was heartened to see far-right Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene at the event with McCarthy, and made sure to shake Greene’s hand.

“If she’s behind him,” she said, trailing off. “It looked today he had enough behind him, pushing him.”

Trump remains popular, and the sign hanging on the building off Main Street from his 2020 campaign was far from the only one still visible in the state, two years since that election.

Several of the voters dismissed the investigations against Trump as nothing more than a “witch hunt” designed to keep him from running again office, despite the potentially serious charges being raised in state and federal inquiries. Some voters said they didn't believe the attack on the Capitol was an insurrection, despite the violence waged by pro-Trump supporters trying to overturn Biden’s election.

Those views stand in contrast to the hard facts of Jan. 6: More than 850 people have been arrested and charged in the insurrection, some given lengthy sentences by the courts for their involvement. Hours before the siege, Trump told a rally crowd to “fight like hell” for his presidency. Loyalists soon broke into the Capitol, fighting in hand-to-hand combat with police, interrupting Congress as it was certifying the election results. Five people, including a Trump supporter shot by police, died in the immediate aftermath.

And if Trump runs again?

“I wish he would,” said McCuen, a retired church secretary. “But I don’t know if he will.”

—-

Follow AP for full coverage of the midterms at https://apnews.com/hub/2022-midterm-elections and on Twitter, https://twitter.com/ap_politics

The Biggest Argument For Peak Oil


Editor OilPrice.com
Sun, October 2, 2022 

It’s been two years since British oil and gas supermajor BP Plc. (NYSE: BP) dramatically declared that the world was already past Peak Oil demand. In the company’s 2020 Energy Outlook, chief executive Bernard Looney pledged that BP would increase its renewables spending twentyfold to $5 billion a year by 2030 and “... not enter any new countries for oil and gas exploration”.

That announcement came as a bit of a shocker given how aggressive BP has been in exploring new oil and gas frontiers.

When many analysts talk about Peak Oil, they are usually referring to that point in time when global oil demand enters a phase of terminal and irreversible decline. According to BP, this point has already come and gone, with oil demand slated to fall by at least 10% in the current decade and by as much as 50% over the next two. BP noted that historically, energy demand has risen steadily in tandem with global economic growth with few interruptions; however, the COVID-19 crisis and increased climate action might have permanently altered that playbook.

However, BP has been forced to do a mea culpa after it became clear that the COVID-19 pandemic that began more than two years ago has not resulted in a significant reduction in oil demand.

In its Energy Outlook 2022 edition, BP has revised down its forecast for global economic growth saying global GDP will only contract 1.5% by 2025 from 2019 levels compared to its earlier projection of a 2.5% contraction.

BP notes that its former grim outlook was drawn up prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine-- another black swan event--which has driven global energy prices higher and cast an uncertain shadow over Russia’s oil and gas sector in recent months.

BP has predicted that oil demand will fall by 74% from 2021-2050, with global oil demand clocking in at a mere 24 million barrels per day by 2050. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a similar forecast under a net-zero scenario though its trajectory of how the world will get there is different from BP’s. BP is, however, by no means the most bearish about global oil demand three decades out, with the Energy Watch Group predicting that oil demand will have virtually disappeared by that date.

Below is a table published by the Energy Intelligence Group that compares oil demand predictions by 28 organizations including a handful of Big Oil companies.

Oil Demand to 2050

(million b/d)

Peak

2030

2040

2050

2021-50

Energy Watch Group (0 Gt)

<2021

72

31

0

-100%

UNPRI 1.5 (2 Gt)

2025

88

46

20

-79

IEA Net-Zero (0 Gt)

<2021

72

43

24

-74

BP Net-Zero (2 Gt)

<2021

90

55

24

-74

UNPRI Forecast Policy (9 Gt)

2026

99

63

37

-61

IPCC 1.5°C Low Overshoot (1 Gt)

<2021

86

63

41

-56

Total Rupture

<2021

88

59

41

-56

Equinor Rebalance (9 Gt)

<2021

88

61

46

-51

BP Accelerated (10 Gt)

2025

96

72

47

-50

IPCC 1.5°C High Overshoot (6 Gt)

<2021

99

78

53

-44

DNV (19 Gt)

2024

85

69

49

-48

IEA Sustainable Development (8 Gt)

<2021

88

65

57

-39

Total Momentum

<2021

94

74

63

-33

IPCC 2°C (14 Gt)

2030

100

88

70

-26

IEA Announced Pledges (21 Gt)

2030

96

84

77

-18

BP New Momentum (31 Gt)

2030

101

92

81

-14

Equinor Reform (24 Gt)

2030

100

92

84

-11

Shell Sky 1.5 (18 Gt)

2025

100

94

85

-10

IPCC 2.5°C (29 Gt)

2040

105

107

99

+5

Shell Islands (34 Gt)

2040

102

104

102

+8

IEA Base (34 Gt)

2040

103

104

103

+9

IPCC 3°C (38 Gt)

2040

104

108

106

+13

Exxon

>2040

104

107

107

+14

Opec (34 Gt)

>2045

107

108

108

+15

Equinor Rivalry (32 Gt)

>2050

107

110

110

+17

IPCC 4°C (52 Gt)

2040

107

111

111

+18

Shell Waves (35 Gt)

2040

111

119

111

+18

US EIA (43 Gt)

>2050

109

117

126

+34%

Projected oil demand to 2030-50 in million barrels per day in a range of scenarios. When available, projected CO2 emissions in billion tons are shown in parenthesis (2021: 34 Gt). Source: BP, DNV, Equinor, EWG, Exxon Mobil, IEA, IPCC, Shell, TotalEnergies, UNPRI, US DOE
Source: Energy Intelligence Group

You will notice that no less than 10 organizations, including OPEC, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), have predicted that global oil demand will actually grow as we go along and not shrink as most analysts have forecast.

Related: American Energy Bills Are Set To Soar This Winter

To be fair, it’s hard to be bullish about the long-term oil demand trend given that climate mandates are unlikely to ease, which coupled with the EV explosion as well as rapidly improving efficiency for gas-powered vehicles, are sure to limit oil consumption. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) recently warned that keeping a 1.5ºC or even 2ºC warming limit in sight will require a big strengthening of current policies. In fact, Paris-compliant energy scenarios assume oil and gas demand will fall by respectively 40%-80% and 20%-60% between now and 2050 while gas demand needs to peak from 2025-2030.

Meanwhile, a plethora of innovations, such as gasoline direct fuel injection, turbocharged engines, automatic transmissions with more gear ratios, and stop/start systems that shut off the engine instead of allowing it to idle has improved fuel efficiency of new vehicles quite dramatically.

New U.S. cars now travel nearly twice as far per gallon as they did at the start of the Obama administration, while light trucks and SUVs have increased efficiency by a more modest 59%. About 26% of crude production is consumed by the transport sector.

EVs may pose an even bigger threat to the fossil fuel industry over the long run.

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance( BNEF) electric and fuel cell vehicles are already subtracting about 1.7 million daily barrels from global consumption, but will displace a whopping 21 million barrels per day in oil demand by 2050. BNEF estimates that road fuel oil demand will peak in 2027, but it will take another decade for the impact of advancements to be materially felt. Emissions will almost halve by 2050, but the sector will still be nowhere near net-zero. In the best case scenario, by the 2050s, fossil-derived road fuel demand will fall below levels last seen in the early 1970s. In this case, oil-related emissions will drop to 3.4 gigatons CO2 by 2050, down from almost 6.5Gt in 2019.

Overall, oil demand might remain steady or even grow appreciably over the next couple of years, maybe through 2030. The long-term outlook, however, looks murkier, depending on whom you listen to.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PEAK OIL