IMPERIALIST WAR MONGER

Beirut Will Turn into Gaza’: Netanyahu Warns Iran-Backed Lebanese Group Hezbollah

Published By: Shankhyaneel Sarkar
News18.com
DECEMBER 09, 2023


Israeli PM Netanyahu warned Hezbollah not to launch an all-out war against Israel in case it does not want Beirut to turn into Gaza City. (Image: Reuters)

Netanyahu warned Hezbollah against opening up a new front in the war and told them to ditch plans of launching an all-out attack on Israel.

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday warned Hezbollah against launching an all-out war on his country unless they want the Lebanese capital Beirut to turn into Gaza.

“I also suggest that our enemies pay attention to this spirit because if Hezbollah decides to open an all-out war, then with its own hands it will turn Beirut and southern Lebanon, which are not far from here, into Gaza and Khan Younis,” Netanyahu said.

Weeks of fighting have left 17,177 people dead in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the latest toll from Hamas which rules the coastal strip.

Lebanese militia-cum-political outfit Hezbollah has not joined the war directly but is participating in asymmetric warfare against Israel. More than 110 people have been killed on the Lebanese side of the border since October, mostly Hezbollah fighters and more than a dozen civilians, according to an AFP tally.

This week itself Hezbollah confirmed that it fired an anti-tank missile fired from Lebanese territory which went on to kill a civilian in northern Israel on Thursday. “Terrorists launched an anti-tank missile from Lebanese territory toward the area of Matat. Additional launches from Lebanon toward Israel were also identified. (Our) helicopters, tanks and artillery are striking the sources,” the Israeli army said.

Lebanese movement Hezbollah said in a statement that it had targeted the “Matat barracks” with “appropriate weapons and caused confirmed casualties”.

Israel is technically at war with Lebanon and this week Israeli fire on a military post near the country’s southern border killed a Lebanese soldier. “The Lebanese Armed Forces were not the target of the strike,” the Israel Defense Forces said, adding it regretted the incident.

The United Nations peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL) said its headquarters were subjected to heavy shelling several times. “The Lebanese Armed Forces have not engaged in conflict with Israel. During the last days, we have seen a rapid and alarming increase in violence,” UNIFIL said this week.

Why is there so much military interest in the moon?

By Leonard David
( space.com-leonard-david ) 

published about 21 hours ago


"Something strange is happening about the unwarranted attention on the moon."

The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Novel Orbital and Moon Manufacturing, Materials and Mass-efficient Design (NOM4D) program, geared to look at enabling large structures in orbit, such as antennas and solar arrays.

 (Image credit: DARPA)

Over the last few years, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, better known as DARPA, has increasingly zeroed-in on the moon.

A trio of proactive DARPA undertakings looking to advance technologies for use on the moon has been welcomed in some quarters. Back in 2021, DARPA kick-started its Novel Orbital moon Manufacturing, Materials, and Mass Efficient Design (NOM4D) program. Last month, DARPA threw in some "LOGIC" into the mix via the Lunar Operating Guidelines for Infrastructure Consortium, or LOGIC for short. DARPA has also initiated the 10-Year Lunar Architecture (LunA-10) Capability Study to spur the development of an integrated future lunar infrastructure for "peaceful U.S. and international use."

A DARPA spokesperson told Space.com that the LunA-10 capability study and the NOM4D program are separate but complementary efforts. "LunA-10 is focused on efficient interoperability of key network nodes for a vibrant, future, lunar economy, whereas NOM4D is focused on breaking free from launch mass, size, and vibration limitations to enable designing and building very large structures, such as antennas and solar arrays, in orbit," the spokesperson stated.

But with so much moon technology research coming from an agency overseen by the U.S. Department of Defense, it begs the question: Could such initiatives trigger worries and spark counter-actions by other nations to install military might on the Earth's moon?

Related: DARPA wants new ideas for space weapons

Carefully calibrated

DARPA's multi-pronged work appears to mesh with the United Nations Outer Space Treaty of 1967 that calls for the moon and other celestial bodies to be used exclusively for peaceful purposes. There's also the U.S.-led Artemis Accords that reinforces peaceful use of the moon by establishing norms of behavior, as espoused within the UN Outer Space Treaty. On Nov. 30, the Republic of Angola became the 33rd country worldwide and the third in Africa to sign the Artemis Accords.

"DARPA's project seems very carefully calibrated to catalyze a successful commercial lunar industry within a decade, which is clearly a peaceful activity," said Peter Garretson, a senior fellow in defense studies at the American Foreign Policy Council. He is a well-regarded strategy consultant who focuses on space and defense and co-authored "Scramble for the Skies - The Great Power Competition to Control the Resources of Outer Space" (Rowman & Littlefield, 2020).

"As such, DARPA itself is not doing anything on or near the moon, but rather helping industry to create interoperable standards which will aid in deconfliction, advance sustainability, and advance standards to enable emergency assistance," said Garretson.

Moreover, Garretson said that DARPA has been clear that it will be transparent in releasing its results. DARPA is working closely with NASA, he said, to directly assist NASA's "stretch goals" in their moon-to-Mars objectives.


A maneuverable robot from Japan-based startup GITAI thata made the list of technologies chosen for the LunA-10 lunar infrastructure development study from DARPA. (Image credit: GITAI)

Self-sustaining industry

"But what is especially beneficial is that, while NASA typically concentrates on exploration and science and is never confident of its mission to catalyze industry, DARPA is unapologetic in attempting to catalyze a self-sustaining industry," Garretson said, and both DARPA's LunA-10 and NOMAD seek to realize the White House-generated National Cislunar Strategy.

Garretson said it is important to note that no Department of Defense (DoD) agency — DARPA, Space Force, Air Force Research Laboratory) has articulated any plans or programs where the DoD itself would engage in any surface activity on the moon, "and this is certainly true of both LunA-10 and NOM4D. Both advance the technology and retire technical risk to enable civil and commercial actors, and all their activities take place here on planet Earth with no flight manifest at all," he concluded.
Dominating the domain

In the meantime, however, concern over what non-U.S. moon players may be contemplating is on the rise.

For instance, in its 2023 report to Congress released last month, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission observed that "China seeks to control access to the moon for strategic aims."

The report states that Beijing is working to establish a long-term presence in space, "which it seeks to accomplish by first dominating the cislunar domain" - the space between Earth and the moon.

Noted by the Commission is U.S. military belief that cislunar space is an important domain, one that allows the United States to place its national security space assets beyond low-Earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit and to establish infrastructure that will enable long-term presence on the moon and elsewhere.

Citing several experts, the report points to primary security concerns of China's lunar exploration program that center on use of orbits around the moon, such as the Earth-moon L2 Lagrange point. Placing a satellite in L2 halo orbit could allow China to fly to the far side of the moon and attack U.S. satellites in geosynchronous orbits, according to an analyst cited in the document.

Working closely with NASA's Lunar Surface Innovation Initiative (LSII) and Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC), DARPA's LOGIC program seeks to accelerate the development of international, consensus-driven technical interoperability standards for technologies destined for the moon. (Image credit: DARPA)

Militarily pointless

But not all experts agree. "It's not very useful to use the moon in any military purposes," said Bleddyn Bowen, an associate professor in astropolitics and space warfare at the University of Leicester's School of History, Politics, and International Relations in the United Kingdom.

Bowen authored "Original Sin - Power, Technology and War in Outer Space," (Hurst, 2022), detailing a world order shaped by spacepower and the peril of space warfare.

"I think the moon is going to get busy. Then, yes, there will be need for more infrastructure to support and coordinate traffic, communications bandwidth, and maybe actual compliance with the [United Nations] Outer Space Treaty as interpreted by whoever is doing the monitoring," Bowen told Space.com. "But the moon is militarily pointless, and I hope it stays that way."

Political optics

That said, having military organizations, such as DARPA, develop emerging technologies for the moon could be sending a wrong message. It's a matter of "political optics" and "political messaging," Bowen said.

"The danger is ending up creating a self-fulfilling prophesy by bringing in possible military fears and interests in the moon. That just might prod the Chinese to respond in a similar way," added Bowen. If NASA is taking the lead or private firms on the space agency's behalf, "then it's more obviously civilian in nature. You avoid a lot of needless militarizing risk," Bowen said. "Most people want to keep the moon free from conflict if possible."

As for the U.S. Space Force turning its attention moonward, Bowen sees that as a distraction. "The Space Force has a lot of work to do in Earth orbit and supporting U.S. military forces on Earth. That's where the Space Force focus needs to be," he said.

Where the Chinese do present actual threats to U.S. interests "is on Earth, in orbit, not on the moon," Bowen concluded.

The new abnormal

Daniel Deudney is a professor of political science and international relations at Johns Hopkins University. He is also author of Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity (Oxford University Press, 2020).

As for military interest in cislunar space and the moon, "I think it is the 'new abnormal,' back to the worst of the 1950's," Deudney told Space.com

Deudney said he was struck by NASA's moonbase enterprise, the notion of extracting water from shaded craters for rocket fuels. Indeed, that vision is on the shady side without independent experts looking at the feasible cost and consequences of such an enterprise.

"It's extremely dubious on its face and vastly more expensive than they think or are telling anyone," Deudney said. "It strikes me as an insane use of dollar resources to squeeze a little water out of these craters. We are facing growing droughts from climate change here on Earth."

But Deudney said he's not opposed to some type of Antarctic-type base on the moon, one that's established for scientific purposes.

"It should be an international project, the next step from the International Space Station. Let's hold in abeyance resource claims and various exclusion zones as set out in the Artemis Accords. We should be doing science and a systematic surveying of the moon jointly with other nations before we start extracting anything," Deudney said.

Ownership of the moon

RELATED STORIES:

 —  US Space Force has new guidelines for working at and around the moon

 — The Space Force should safeguard US interests on the moon (op-ed)

 — Military interest in the moon is ramping up

"Something strange is happening about the unwarranted attention on the moon," said Paul Szymanski of the Space Strategies Center, co-author of a forthcoming book, "The Battle Beyond: Fighting and Winning the Coming War in Space" (Amplify Publishing, 2024).

"For my entire 50 year career no one I knew was particularly interested in it [the moon], but now there is extreme attention," Szymanski said.

In the 1970's NASA asked the Air Force if they wanted a base on the moon, and they said no, Szymanski told Space.com. "Yet now, I personally know of companies planning on providing cell phone service on the moon and the Air Force Research Lab is developing several programs, such as space surveillance for the far side of the moon. None of this makes sense, unless there is some other not publicly known factor that has changed everyone's attitudes."

Szymanski said he theorizes that China will abrogate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty just before landing their first astronauts on the moon.

"They will then declare ownership of the entire moon, like the Pope did centuries ago declaring Spain and Portugal owned the entire Western hemisphere. Good luck defending all of that!"

What is Point Nemo, the remote, watery satellite graveyard where the ISS will go to die?

By Emma Bryce 

published 7 days ago


In the furthest, deepest reaches of the ocean, there is a watery graveyard where the world's satellites and space stations go to rest

The International Space Station is due to be deorbited in 2031.

 (Image credit: Darryl Fonseka/Shutterstock)

It's been called the "loneliest place on earth" — a location so remote it would take days to traverse the 1,670 miles (2,700 kilometers) of ocean between this point and the nearest patch of land — which, even then, is just a cluster of tiny islands inhabited only by birds.

Sitting in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, this is Point Nemo, also known as the "pole of inaccessibility." South of Easter Island, and north of Antarctica, ocean surrounds this point as far as the eye can see, and plunges to depths of over 13,000 feet (4,000 meters).

This extremity has made Point Nemo an attractive target for some unlikely prospectors: the space industry.

Satellite graveyard

Since the 1970s, global space programs have plunged almost 300 retired craft, including space stations and satellites, into the ocean at Point Nemo.

NASA recently announced it will do the same with the International Space Station (ISS), which has been in orbit for 25 years, and which will be officially retired by 2031. At 357 feet (109 meters) long and 925,335 pounds (419,725 kilograms), it will be the largest addition to the space graveyard at Point Nemo.

Sinking spacecraft into the ocean might seem like an extreme step. But the alternative — to leave it permanently circulating in space — "is not a solution," Stijn Lemmens, a space debris analyst with the European Space Agency, told Live Science.

There are now 40,000 known human-made objects orbiting our planet, ranging in size from 2 inches (5 centimeters) to giant craft like the ISS. The denser this soup of space debris becomes, the greater the risk that individual pieces will collide. This would cause them to accelerate, potentially triggering a cascade of collisions that would shatter space debris into smaller and smaller fragments — "to the point that you have cluttered your orbital environment, and it's no longer safe to put an operational spacecraft in there," Lemmens told Live Science.

So, the ocean's remotest depths have become the next best option. To minimize the risk of death and destruction as spacecraft crash land, experts "look around the world for where nobody is living, where nobody is flying and where you have no boats," Lemmens said. "Point Nemo is one of them."

Map showing Point Nemo, the most remote place on Earth. (Image credit: NOAA)

Many don't actually end up in the ocean, as they simply burn up under intense pressure and speed when they re-enter Earth's atmosphere. Likewise, when it is eventually decommissioned, some parts of the ISS will burn and disintegrate as it tumbles through the atmosphere.

But that won't be enough to dispatch its huge, hulking form. What's required is a carefully choreographed descent to bring it down to Point Nemo on its final orbit, to ensure that the remaining fuel gets used up before it sinks.

There are two other sites where the world's spacecraft meet a watery grave: one in the Indian Ocean and another in the South Atlantic Ocean. But Point Nemo's uninterrupted stretch of ocean provides the "widest possible area to [land spacecraft] safely," which is why it is the preferred site for the ISS, Lemmens explained.
An ocean dead zone

Nevertheless, is it really a good idea to sink hunks of metal anywhere in the deep sea? What about the Pacific's fragile marine life?

According to research, this is another reason why Point Nemo is an ideal satellite graveyard. Weak ocean currents in the region and the remoteness from land limit the flow of nutrients to this part of the ocean.

This, paired with extremely intense UV rays, make it a challenging place for life to survive and thrive.

Studies have found strikingly low biomass in the region, and it is believed to contain very little biodiversity.

When researchers sampled the surface concentrations of microbes around Point Nemo in 2019, they found "prob­ably the low­est cell num­bers ever meas­ured in oceanic sur­face waters," study author Bernhard Fuchs, from the Max Planck In­sti­tute for Mar­ine Mi­cro­bi­o­logy, said in a statement at the time.

That doesn't mean plummeting space debris into the sea is a perfect solution, Lemmens added. Recently, researchers identified particles of aluminum in the atmosphere, which they determined couldn't have come from meteorites or Earth. Instead, they are likely from disintegrating spacecraft as they re-enter the atmosphere — which means they're potentially causing pollution before they reach Point Nemo's depths.

As a result, "There's a really renewed interest in, okay, well, are we doing this safely? And what are the consequences of bringing objects back down?" Lemmens said. "As a consequence of keeping space clean, we should make sure we don't pollute the Earth needlessly, either."

NASA astronauts finally find 1-inch tomato that was 'lost in space' for 8 months

By Elizabeth Howell published about 17 hours ago


NASA astronaut Frank Rubio spent hours looking for a tomato that floated away on the International Space Station. Eight months later, his colleagues finally found it.

NASA astronaut Frank Rubio (right), pictured with dwarf tomatoes on the International Space Station, lost hold of a dwarf tomato shortly after the harvest on March 29, 2023. The tomato's remains were finally retrieved by another ISS crew, who announced the feat on Dec. 6, 2023. (Image credit: NASA)

A foodie space mystery has finally been solved.

The remains of a tiny tomato lost by NASA astronaut Frank Rubio after an off-Earth harvest in March finally showed up on the International Space Station (ISS), more than eight months later.

"Our good friend Frank Rubio, who headed home [already], has been blamed for quite a while for eating the tomato. But we can exonerate him. We found the tomato," NASA astronaut Jasmin Moghbeli said during a livestreamed event on Wednesday (Dec. 6) that celebrated the ISS' 25th anniversary. (Moghbeli did not elaborate where the tomato was found, or what condition it was in).

The minor incident turned into a large inside joke for Rubio in the fall. The 1-inch-wide (2.5 centimeters) Red Robin dwarf tomato was a part of the final harvest for the Veg-05 experiment that Rubio himself had tended through some growing pains

Each ISS astronaut received samples of the tomatoes after the March 29, 2023 harvest, but Rubio's share — stored in a Ziploc bag — floated away before he could take a bite.

Related: Record-breaking astronaut Frank Rubio finally returns to Earth after accidentally spending 371 days in space

The missing tomato was first discussed publicly on Sept. 13, when Rubio had his own event in space marking an unexpected record year in orbit for a United States astronaut. (Problems with Rubio's Russian Soyuz spacecraft, which were eventually resolved with the launch of a replacement Soyuz, doubled his expected six-month stay.)

"I spent so many hours looking for that thing," Rubio joked during the ISS livestream in September. "I'm sure the desiccated tomato will show up at some point and vindicate me, years in the future."

To be fair to Rubio, the ISS is larger than a six-bedroom house, and, in microgravity, things can easily float away to unexpected corners. NASA's procedure is usually to check vent intakes, but in a station crowded with 25 years of stuff, it's easy to lose track of individual items.

Also, the tomato search did not unduly occupy his time, as Rubio's Soyuz crew performed hundreds of other science experiments (despite the stress of the delay). If anything, the situation may show more about how to deal with the unexpected when growing plants on the moon or Mars, which the Veggie series of experiments eventually aims to achieve.

Reporters asked Rubio about the lost tomato on Oct. 13, about two weeks after he safely returned home with his delayed crew (Russian cosmonauts Sergey Prokopyev and Dmitri Petelin) after 371 days in space.

He lamented that the tomato never came to light despite "18 to 20 hours of my own time looking for that." (Rubio may have been exaggerating the time spent for humor.)

"The reality of the problem, you know — the humidity up there is like 17%. It's probably desiccated to the point where you couldn't tell what it was, and somebody just threw away the bag," Rubio added, laughing. "Hopefully somebody will find it someday: a little, shriveled thing."
While the tomato was a light part of Rubio's mission, not all of it was so easy. During the same October event, Rubio spoke about how difficult it was to stay away from his wife, children and friends for so long; he has said that if he'd known he were going to end up spending a year in space, he wouldn't have asked for the mission.

But as Rubio took some time in space to absorb the news of the delay, his connections offered unconditional help for him and his family. "The community around us was just, gosh — they had so much prayers and support. It was really almost overwhelming, how much love and support we've received. So from that perspective, it made it incredibly easy."

Originally posted on Space.com.

'Fairytale of New York' lands the coveted number 1 spot on the Irish Charts this week

NIAMH BROWNE
MUSIC
08 DEC 23

In the wake of the recent passing of Pogues' frontman Shane MacGowan, the band's famous Christmas song has stormed to Irish Charts and currently sits at no.1.

The Pogues' 'Fairytale of New York' has returned to No 1 in Ireland on the day of its composer Shane MacGowan’s funeral - 36 years after it first topped the charts in Ireland.

In what is possibly one of the least Christmassy Christmas songs, the acerbic duet between MacGowan and Kirsty MacColl, was penned by MacGowan and Jem Finer and featured on the band’s 1988 album If I Should Fall From Grace With God.

Today was the day of the Pogues frontman's funeral, who passed away Monday last week. Thousands of mourners and fans gathered around Dublin to pay respects to the late singer as his funeral cortége made its journey from Dublin to Limerick.

'Fairytale of New York' has also been subject of a fan campaign in the UK to bring the track to the coveted Christmas number one spot, which the song famously never made, having been beaten to the spot by the Pet Shop Boys' 'Always on My Mind'.

This year the track is facing stiff competition in the form of Mariah Carey's Christmas Sensation 'All I Want for Christmas is You' and Wham!'s festive lament 'Last Christmas'.

However, Fairytale has reached the UK Top 20 every year during the Christmas period since 2005. And it is also a regular feature in the Irish Top 10 on its re-release at Christmas In Ireland.

MacGowan’s widow Victoria Mary Clarke has said she would love to see the track finally hit the top spot in the UK, telling BBC radio 'It absolutely should be number 1'.

Also ranking highly on the Irish singles chart this week is, The Pogues’ song 'A Rainy Night In Soho' coming in at No 15, and 'A Pair Of Brown Eyes' is new in at No 41.

On the new Irish album chart, The Best of The Pogues is new at No 2, the band’s classic 1985 album Rum Sodomy & The Lash is back at No 6. Furthermore, If I Should Fall From Grace With God, first released in 1988 and which feature the Pogues most famous song 'Fairytale of New York', is at No 16. A further compilation, The Very Best Of The Pogues sits at No 26.

Rystad: Coal Usage and Emissions in the Global Power Sector to Peak in 2023

By Rystad Energy - Dec 04, 2023

Global electricity demand is forecast to reach about 25,400 TWh next year, 3% higher than 2023.

Global coal power generation increased from 4.4 TWh in 1990 to 10.2 TWh in 2022, registering a 133% rise.

Generation from carbon-free sources, including solar PV, wind and others is expected to add 845 TWh of new supplies in 2024.

Global coal-fired power generation is on track to peak in 2023 as new sources of renewable and low-carbon energy expand rapidly. Coal has dominated the global power sector for the past 30 years, but Rystad Energy modeling shows that 2024 will mark the start of the fuel’s decline as solar and wind generation grow in popularity.

New electricity supply from renewables is expected to outstrip power demand growth, leading to coal’s displacement starting next year and compounding in the coming years. As a result, coal-fired generation will fall marginally to 10,332 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024, down 41 TWh from 2023. This is a relative drop in the ocean, but it’s a sign of things to come as renewables continue their growth trajectory.

As coal’s share falls, so will the associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Thanks to coal’s dominant role in powering the world, the power sector is the biggest contributor to global pollution – accounting for about 40% of all emissions.

Investments in coal capacity and overall usage have fallen in Europe and North America in recent years due to a combination of strict emissions policies and abundant availability of affordable natural gas supplies. Yet, enduring growth in Asia, primarily China, has kept global coal consumption buoyant. Even so, coal will be gradually displaced by the rapid development of low-carbon power sources, ushering in a cleaner, leaner system even as investments in new capacity in Asia continue over the next few years.

“Coal usage in the power sector is peaking. The drop in total coal generation in 2024 may be small on paper, but it signals the beginning of the renewable energy era in the power market. However, there are still challenges to overcome in a renewables-heavy electricity sector, including intermittency issues. For that reason, coal and natural gas power plants will continue to play a key role by providing baseload supply and flexibility,” says Carlos Torres Diaz, senior vice president of renewables and power research at Rystad Energy.



Global coal power generation increased from 4.4 TWh in 1990 to 10.2 TWh in 2022, registering a 133% rise. China overwhelmingly drove that growth, but India and other Asian countries have also contributed. Global installed capacity grew from 856 gigawatts (GW) in 1990 to about 2.1 TW in 2022, with Asian countries adding about 1.4 TW.

Thanks to abundant coal reserves and the need to add energy supply quickly to support economic growth, Asia is responsible for more than three-quarters of the world's coal power generation. Coal generation capacity continues to grow in the region, but the pace of new projects is slowing amid environmental concerns. Countries around the world that are highly dependent on coal, like China, Germany and the US, are developing renewable capacity fast enough and at favorable economics to displace coal easily.

Europe and North America are systematically replacing coal generation with cleaner sources like natural gas and renewables, reducing coal power capacity by more than 200 GW since 1990. Europe’s decline is mainly driven by strict emissions policies, while North America has primarily replaced coal generation with gas power as abundant regional production has slashed prices. For instance, in November 2023, gas generation costs on the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) market in the US were half of coal generation costs.

Despite coal losing ground in Europe and North America, Asia’s growth has overshadowed their efforts. And, as gas and LNG prices rocketed in the second half of 2022, many countries turned to coal to meet their energy needs, leading to increased power sector emissions. To put it into perspective, an average coal power plant emits about 1 tonne of CO2 per megawatt-hour (MWh), while gas plants emit close to 0.5 tonnes per MWh. This means emissions per megawatt-hour are already halved just by switching back to natural gas now that prices are more stable.

Growth to continue in Asia, for now

Asia has added more than 40 GW of new coal capacity in each of the last five years and is expected to add 52 GW next year. In other words, Asia will add more coal capacity in 2024 than the total installed capacity in Argentina. Most of this new capacity is in China, followed by India and Indonesia. Rystad Energy forecasts capacity additions will continue until 2027, albeit slower, after which coal power plants will begin to decline.

The utilization rates of these new Asian coal power plants will be dictated by electricity demand growth, renewables capacity growth and the age and health of existing coal infrastructure in each country. More than 16% of the region’s existing coal plants are 20 years old or older, meaning a drop in efficiency or an increase in maintenance and operating costs is on the horizon. New plants could replace this aging infrastructure, especially in countries where alternative generation sources could help meet demand.



Renewables starting to outpace coal

Even with the coal generation fleet continuing to expand, the yearly additions are overshadowed by the new renewable energy capacity. Renewable power has grown exponentially since 2010 due to declining manufacturing costs and ambitious national and regional targets. The global average levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar PV and onshore wind is around $50 per MWh. This compares to $84 per MWh for coal and $144 per MWh for gas power in Asia (considering a coal price of $122 per tonne and a gas price of $17 per MMBtu). Therefore, investments in renewable energy are a more economical choice for most countries, leading to installations setting new records every year.

Close to 300 GW of solar PV and 140 GW of wind capacity will be installed globally in 2024, more than half of which will be added in Asia, where there is a more urgent need to begin a displacement of coal power generation. This will take global capital expenditure in solar PV and wind capacity to more than $600 billion next year. Capacity gains are only as valuable as their output, though. Renewable energy power plant efficiency remains well below fossil fuel power generation, but solar PV and wind capacity growth is moving fast enough to make up the difference.






The lingering question is whether clean energy supply can grow quickly enough to meet demand. Global electricity demand is forecast to reach about 25,400 TWh next year, 3% higher than 2023. Again, most of this growth will come from Asia, where economic activity continues to expand. The rate of demand growth is forecast to remain stable this decade and then accelerate due to the rapid electrification of the transport and industrial sectors during the 2030s.

Generation from carbon-free sources, including solar PV, wind and others (such as nuclear, hydro and bioenergy), is expected to add 845 TWh of new supplies in 2024. Assuming 5% losses, the new supply from clean sources is still significantly larger than the increase in demand, meaning there is potential to displace fossil-fueled power generation. Given that renewable power generation, on average, has much lower operational costs than fossil-fuel plants, these sources will have priority in the merit order and should result in a lower utilization of coal and gas plants.

The long-term displacement of fossil-fueled power generation looks set to begin next year, indicating that we could be experiencing peak coal generation and carbon emissions from the power sector this year.

By Rystad Energy

What Peak Demand for Fossil Fuels Will Look Like

By Haley Zaremba - Dec 05, 2023

The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2023 predicts that demand for coal, oil, and natural gas will peak within the next decade.

Clean energy policies and economic development trends are the key drivers behind the shift towards renewables, and could even lead to lower energy demand.

The move away from fossil fuels has broader implications, including geopolitical shifts and a transformation in global energy supply chains.


“We are on track to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030.” That’s according to The International Energy Agency’s new World Energy Outlook 2023, their flagship annual report, which predicted that coal, oil, and gas are all due to begin their terminal decline earlier than previously predicted. Released last month, the report had some surprising – and hopeful – revelations about our changing energy landscape.

“Policies supporting clean energy are delivering as the projected pace of change picks up in key markets around the world,” the IEA report states. These projections are based on current policy scenarios and don’t consider any additional climate policies. With just the climate and energy policies that already exist today demand for coal, oil, and gas are each expected to peak within the decade. This is huge – the report marks the first time that demand for each fuel has been predicted within this decade. And while new fossil fuel additions wane, renewables are on track to represent 80% of new power capacity by 2030, and more than half of that 80% will come from photovoltaic solar power alone.

While decarbonization initiatives are playing a major role in the historic transition away from fossil fuels, they’re not the only thing nudging the world toward a phase-down and phase-out of coal, oil, and gas. In fact, they might be playing a more minor role than we even realize, as the green energy transition takes place against the backdrop of significant economic and development variables. Greater market forces are at play that all but guarantee waning energy demand regardless of renewable energy scenarios.

Population growth and economic development have caused worldwide energy demand to rise dramatically and ceaselessly for the last 150 years, and now, ironically, it is continued economic development that will make demand fall. As emerging economies advance in their development, their population growth tends to wane. There are a number of factors that lead to this inverse relationship – with an improved economy, for example, countries often see increases in education for girls and women and lower infant mortality rates, among other key drivers of declining population growth rates.

As economies develop, they follow a very predictable energy consumption trajectory. At first, their demand for energy skyrockets as they move away from agrarian livelihoods and primary materials markets to more industrial pursuits. But then, as their economies develop further, they tend to move away from these resource- and energy-intensive industrial sectors toward less intensive service sectors. Of course, many tech sectors are also major energy guzzlers, but in the bigger economic picture, the trend holds true. Plus, these developments are typically paired with strengthened energy efficiency programs that can help offset energy-hungry data centers and Bitcoin mining operations.

While the rapid approach of peak fossil fuel use is a huge step in the right direction, however, the current trends toward peak emissions and eventual decarbonization are still nowhere near where they need to be in order to meet climate goals. And if the last year has shown us anything, it’s that energy development is unpredictable. Conflict is a major driver of market volatility and can upset even the most confident energy projections. Conflict is expected to grow in frequency and intensity as climate change places a stress test on global environments, economies, and societies.

What’s more, the trend away from fossil fuels will have far-ranging implications for geopolitics, which are currently built on a 150-year foundation of petro-diplomacy. As more and more of the global energy mix is provided by solar and wind power, more nations will be capable of producing their own energy, will democratize energy production, and cause a dramatic shift in international trade. Already, a move away from global energy supply chains toward homeshoring and friendshoring is taking place in the wake of last year’s energy crisis.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

New Technology May Reduce Battery Fires

By Brian Westenhaus - Dec 05, 2023

University of Maryland scientists have developed a new technology that makes batteries less prone to catching fire.

At least 750,000 registered EVs in the U.S. run on lithium-ion batteries – popular because of their high energy storage but containing a flammable liquid electrolyte component that burns when overheated.

This new design for a battery “interlayer,” led by Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering Professor Chunsheng Wang, stops dendrite formation, and could open the door for the production of viable all-solid-state batteries for EVs.

University of Maryland researchers studying how lithium batteries fail have developed a new technology that could enable next-generation electric vehicles (EVs) and other devices that are less prone to battery fires while increasing energy storage.

The innovative method described in a paper published in the journal Nature, suppresses the growth of lithium dendrites – damaging branch-like structures that develop inside the described “all-solid-state” lithium batteries, preventing firms from broadly commercializing the promising solid state technology.

But this new design for a battery “interlayer,” led by Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering Professor Chunsheng Wang, stops dendrite formation, and could open the door for production of viable all-solid-state batteries for EVs.

At least 750,000 registered EVs in the U.S. run on lithium-ion batteries – popular because of their high energy storage but containing a flammable liquid electrolyte component that burns when overheated.

While no government agency tracks vehicle fires by type of car, and electric car battery fires appear to be relatively rare, they pose particular risks; the National Transportation Safety Board reports that first responders are vulnerable to safety risks, including electric shock and the exposure to toxic gasses emanating from damaged or burning batteries.

All-solid-state batteries could lead to cars that are safer than current electric or internal combustion models, but creating a strategy to bypass the drawbacks was laborious, Wang noted.

When these batteries are operated at the high capacities and charging-discharging rates that electric vehicles demand, lithium dendrites grow toward the cathode side, causing short circuits and a decay in capacity.Related: What Peak Demand for Fossil Fuels Will Look Like

Wang and Postdoctoral Associate Hongli Wan began to develop a theory for the formation of lithium dendrite growth in 2021; it remains a matter of scientific debate, the researchers said.

“After we figured out that part, we proposed the idea to redesign the interlayers that would effectively suppress the lithium dendrite growth,” Wang said.

Their solution is unique because of the stabilizing of the battery’s interfaces between the solid electrolyte and the anode (where electrons from a circuit enter the battery) and the electrolyte and the cathode (where energy flows out of the battery). The new battery structure adds a fluorine-rich interlayer that stabilizes the cathode side, as well as a modification of the anode’s interlayer with magnesium and bismuth – suppressing the lithium dendrite.

“Solid-state batteries are next-generation because they can achieve high energy and safety. In current batteries, if you achieve high energy, you’ll sacrifice safety,” said Wang.

Researchers have other challenges to solve before the solid state technology enters the market.

To commercialize all-solid-state batteries, experts will have to scale down the solid electrolyte layer to achieve a similar thickness to the lithium-ion batteries’ electrolyte, which will improve energy density – or how much power the battery can store.

High costs of basic materials are another challenge, the team said.

Aiming to release the new batteries to the market by 2026, advanced battery manufacturer Solid Power plans to begin trials of the new technology to assess its potential for commercialization. Continuing research aims to further boost energy density, the researchers said.

***

Lithium solid state could very well be the next step in battery improvement. This research is already going into prototype testing, a defining mark in progress. There just might be a solid state lithium battery tech coming soon. Most likely in cell phones or other personal devices. That would make a fine mass market proving ground.

Next up could be a solid state lithium metal battery. Progress might speed up or slow as the market could contract from the power generation issues and grid capacity matters that consumers have realized are grave problems in the EV market.

But by no means have personal device sales drawn down. And there are lots of ideas about new products out there that could launch with an increase in power capacity and safety. EVs might have market circumstance problems but battery demand is going to grow anyway.

By Brian Westenhaus via Newenergyandfuel.com

Hydrogen in the Limelight at COP28

By Alan Mammoser - Dec 06, 2023

The high hopes for green hydrogen were apparent at last year’s COP27 summit in Egypt.
COP28 is showing that, while a viable market for ‘green’ hydrogen still appears far from a ‘tipping point’.

An official from the US DOE spoke about $7bn for seven selected ‘hydrogen hubs’, also money for electrolysis development, and a hydrogen tax credit that can extend for up to 10 years at $3 per kilogram.

The UN’s COP28 climate talks, a mega-conference running for two weeks, are organized around daily themes. The fifth day on Tuesday focused on energy and brought out much high-level discussion of hydrogen.

The high hopes for green hydrogen were apparent at last year’s COP27 summit in Egypt with a flurry of big project announcements. Those have faded from the news as few major projects have reached financial commitment.

Yet the seriousness of discussions in Dubai this week, pursued by top ministry officials and high-level executives, showed that the momentum toward green hydrogen continues to quietly build. This year’s conference lacks the flashy announcements, but it is moving forward with putting the basic structures in place to support a future hydrogen economy.

COP28 is showing that, while a viable market for ‘green’ hydrogen still appears far from a ‘tipping point’, the ongoing activities of companies and governments is a growing force.

President’s roundtable

A ‘High-Level Ministerial-CEO Roundtable on Hydrogen’ convened on Tuesday, sponsored by the COP28 President’s Office, with two hours of talks that cumulatively felt like a hydrogen wave. Ministers from numerous countries described their governments’ initiatives and financial support. An official from the US DOE spoke about $7bn for seven selected ‘hydrogen hubs’, also money for electrolysis development, and a hydrogen tax credit that can extend for up to 10 years at $3 per kilogram. 

Then top executives of some 15 companies, members of the Hydrogen Council, spoke of their already significant investments in the emerging sector. Executives from Air Liquide, Air Products, Hy24, Masdar, Next Era Energy, OCI Global, Port of Rotterdam, Topsoe, Thyssenkrupp, and others, called for incentives and clear regulation to enable global trade in the energy-rich element.

These progress reports notwithstanding, the President’s roundtable made its most important statement with the announcement of two rather obscure initiatives. It featured the launch of a ‘Declaration of Intent on Mutual Recognition of Certification Schemes for Hydrogen and Derivatives.’ It also introduced a new ISO methodology for GHG emissions assessment of hydrogen.

Thirty-nine countries have endorsed the Hydrogen Declaration of Intent to pursue mutual recognition of hydrogen certification schemes, according to COP28.

Looking for a breakthrough

Later in the day, another roundtable focused on the basic tasks of putting the hydrogen structure together.

Part of the so-called Breakthrough Agenda that began with COP26 two years ago, it gathered representatives of World Bank, IEA, IRENA, the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy (IPHE), other major non-profits and some governments.

They considered needs in key areas including standards and certification, demand creation, research and innovation, finance and investment. The bright spot, after the morning’s announcements, was standards and certifications.

“We’ve seen standards and certification really rise in the agenda, almost in a surprising way,” said Paul Durant, who is Head of Climate Innovation for the UK government. Mr. Durant chaired the roundtable meeting.

The subsequent discussion of demand creation indicated less certainty, where a huge gap between hydrogen and fossil fuel cost was considered.

“When is comes to demand creation…we are in the very beginning,” said Oleksiy Tatarenko, Senior Principal, Hydrogen Initiatives at Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), whose large team is working specifically on demand creation. He spoke of the need for combined policy interventions and market-based mechanisms to grow demand for hydrogen.

“We still have a massive challenge, even in the developed countries.

“Making an economic case, sector by sector, you have a gap in hydrogen competitiveness versus carbon fuels or other solutions.”

Hydrogen’s good day

“Today saw a big outcome for hydrogen…we are now putting into place concrete elements to ensure it will happen,” said Laurent Antoni, Executive Director, IPHE, who spoke at both roundtables.

His organization has advocated for years for the ISO methodology and helped to shepherd the declaration on certification schemes to agreement.

“We need to rely on robust regulations, which themselves have to rely on certification, the labelling of hydrogen.

“And within the certification schemes what matters, the main point, is carbon footprint,” he said. He also stressed the importance of the new ISO method to ensure everyone uses precisely the same methodology to quantify the carbon footprint, to allow comparison across markets and borders.

It’s a key common piece needed in all countries’ regulations to facilitate a future hydrogen market. That’s a big breakthrough, he thinks.

Antoni, an electrochemist, won’t talk colours in regard to hydrogen.

“When speaking about a kind of hydrogen, what you’re really speaking about is the carbon footprint,” he said. “And the carbon footprint of the hydrogen is regardless of the primary energy and technology used to produce it.”

“What matters for hydrogen is to use decarbonized hydrogen,” he said. “It’s not a ‘silver bullet’, but without low-emission hydrogen, we won’t achieve our climate targets.”

By Alan Mammoser for Oilprice.com

GREENWASHING NUCLEAR 

The World’s Safest and Deadliest Sources of Energy

By ZeroHedge - Dec 06, 2023

Fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas, contribute to over 60% of the world's energy production and are the top greenhouse gas emitters.
Air pollution and accidents from fossil fuel-based energy sources lead to significant human casualties, with coal responsible for 25 deaths per terawatt-hour.
Wind, solar, and nuclear energy emerge as the safest options, with fewer than 0.1 annual deaths per terawatt-hour, challenging common perceptions about the safety of nuclear energy.

Recent conversations about climate change, emissions, and health have put a spotlight on the world’s energy sources.

As of 2021, nearly 90% of global CO? emissions came from fossil fuels. But energy production doesn’t just lead to carbon emissions, it can also cause accidents and air pollution that have a significant toll on human life.

Visual Capitalist's Freny Fernandes introduces this graphic by Ruben Mathisen, which uses data from Our World in Data to help visualize exactly how safe or deadly these energy sources are.



Fossil Fuels are the Highest Emitters

All energy sources today produce greenhouse gases either directly or indirectly. However, the top three GHG-emitting energy sources are all fossil fuels.

Coal produces 820 tonnes of CO? equivalent (CO?e) per gigawatt-hour. Not far behind is oil, which produces 720 tonnes CO?e per gigawatt-hour. Meanwhile, natural gas produces 490 tonnes of CO?e per gigawatt-hour.

These three sources contribute to over 60% of the world’s energy production.

Deadly Effects

Generating energy at a massive scale can have other side effects, like air pollution or accidents that take human lives.



According to Our World in Data, air pollution and accidents from mining and burning coal fuels account for around 25 deaths per terawatt-hour of electricity—roughly the amount consumed by about 150,000 EU citizens in one year. The same measurement sees oil responsible for 18 annual deaths, and natural gas causing three annual deaths.

Meanwhile, hydropower, which is the most widely used renewable energy source, causes one annual death per 150,000 people. The safest energy sources by far are wind, solar, and nuclear energy at fewer than 0.1 annual deaths per terawatt-hour.

Nuclear energy, because of the sheer volume of electricity generated and the low amount of associated deaths, is one of the world’s safest energy sources, despite common perceptions.

By Zerohedge.com

United States And Allies To Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity By 2050

By Alex Kimani - Dec 04, 2023

The United States and 21 other countries have pledged to triple their respective nuclear energy capacities by 2050.

Although tripling their nuclear energy output will go a long way in helping Europe become more energy independent, it’s likely to come at a heavy price.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron has said that nuclear energy, including small modular reactors, is an “indispensable solution” in the fight against climate change.

The United States and 21 other countries have pledged to triple their respective nuclear energy capacities by 2050, saying incorporating more nuclear power in their energy mix is critical for achieving their net zero goals in the coming decades. The United States, alongside Britain, France, Canada, Sweden, South Korea, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates have signed the declaration at the COP28 climate summit currently underway in Dubai.

Although tripling their nuclear energy output will go a long way in helping Europe become more energy independent, it’s likely to come at a heavy price. Consider that in the majority of advanced economies, home to nearly 70 percent of global nuclear capacity, investment in nuclear energy has mostly stalled thanks to massive cost overruns, incessant project delays as well as never-ending public opposition. Indeed, all 31 nuclear power plants that have been constructed since 2017 belong to China and Russia.

But the leaders attending the climate summit are confident they can overcome these hurdles. John Kerry, President Biden’s climate envoy, says there are “trillions of dollars” available that could be used for investment in nuclear energy. “We are not making the argument to anybody that this is absolutely going to be the sweeping alternative to every other energy source — no, that’s not what brings us here. But you can’t get to net-zero 2050 without some nuclear power,” he told reporters. 

Related: Al Jaber Says Fossil Fuel Phase Out is 'Inevitable'

France’s President Emmanuel Macron has said that nuclear energy, including small modular reactors, is an “indispensable solution” in the fight against climate change. France is Europe’s largest nuclear power producer, deriving ~70 percent of its electricity from nuclear stations.

But not everybody is buying that nuclear renaissance thesis. Masayoshi Iyoda, an activist from Japan with 350.org, says that nuclear power is a dangerous distraction from decarbonization goals, “It is simply too costly, too risky, too undemocratic, and too time-consuming. We already have cheaper, safer, democratic, and faster solutions to the climate crisis, and they are renewable energy and energy efficiency,” he has said in a statement, citing the Fukushima nuclear accident.

First SMR Launch Tanks

Unfortunately, it appears that nuclear power, including the small modular reactors Macron has alluded to, is not about to become an easy sell. NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE:SMR), a developer of modular light water reactor nuclear reactors, has been forced to terminate the Carbon Free Power Project with Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) thanks to high costs and low interest by end users. The plan was to build a novel nuclear power plant comprising six small modular reactors (SMRs), each generating 77 MW. But the project fell apart after prospective customers for its electricity backed out and costs more than doubled to $9.3 billion. The cancellation has come even after the Department of Energy, in 2020, approved $1.35 billion over 10 years for the plant. NuScale was the first U.S. company to secure regulatory approval for modular reactors.

As you might expect, the critics have wasted no time coming out of the woodworks.

"The termination of NuScale's contract signals the broader challenges of developing nuclear energy in the United States. Placing excessive reliance on untested technologies without adequate consideration of economic viability, practicality, and safety concerns is irresponsible and clearly won’t work,"Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists, has told Reuters.

Short-seller Iceberg Research has followed up last month's negative report with a new, even more damning report saying the company's Standard Power contract is "a pipe dream that was designed to divert attention from the loss of UAMPS." Iceberg claims NuScale has touted Standard Power as a credible partner because its investors comprise "ultra high net worth family offices and financial institutions [with] access to capital in excess of $10B."

However, the short seller remains skeptical because of Standard Power's small size as well as the lack of identification among its investors. Further, Iceberg has faulted NuScale management’s claims to having a solid balance sheet, with $197M of cash and no debt at the end of Q3, saying this overlooks the company's $153M cash burn during the last 12 months and does not take into account the hit to its books by the UAMPS contract termination, which adds ~$63M in liabilities. Iceberg estimates NuScale has a mere 11-19 month cash runway.

Full-Size Mock Up Of NuScale’s SMR

SMRs have been touted as the nuclear reactors of the future thanks mainly to their smaller footprint which allows them to be sited on locations not suitable for larger nuclear power plants. Prefabricated SMR units (similar to NuScale’s) can be manufactured, shipped and installed on site, making them several times cheaper to build than large power reactors. Additionally, they can be deployed incrementally to match increasing power demand. Another key advantage: SMRs can be refueled every 3 to 7 years compared to between 1 and 2 years required for conventional nuclear plants.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com