Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Typhoons: the hidden lifeline in a drying world





Pohang University of Science & Technology (POSTECH)

Change in Extreme Long Duration Drought Frequency by landfalling Tropical Cyclones 

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Change in Extreme Long Duration Drought Frequency by landfalling Tropical Cyclones

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Credit: POSTECH





A research team led by Professor Jonghun Kam from POSTECH (Pohang University of Science and Technology) has revealed that typhoons are a critical factor in mitigating global droughts by simulating a scenario where typhoon-induced precipitation is removed. The study delivers the message that "imagining a world without typhoons is the starting point for understanding future droughts," and was recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, a leading international journal in the field of Earth sciences.

 

The Two Faces of Typhoons

Typhoons are commonly perceived as disasters that bring floods and destruction. However, the rain they leave behind plays a vital role in delaying droughts and maintaining the water cycle. Despite this, the impact of a lack of typhoons on drought has rarely been systematically analyzed. This study began with a simple but profound question: "How much would drought patterns change if typhoons never occurred?"

 

Simulating a "World Without Typhoons"

Using global data spanning 40 years (1980–2020), the research team conducted global hydrological model experiments comparing scenarios with and without typhoon precipitation. Essentially, they placed a "world with typhoons" and a "world without typhoons" side-by-side to analyze differences in soil moisture, river runoff, and drought intensity.

The results showed that if typhoon precipitation was removed, soil moisture declined sharply across many regions worldwide, leading to significantly more severe drought conditions. Notably, the way typhoons moistened the soil and the duration of that effect varied significantly by region:

  • Arid and semi-Arid Regions (e.g., Oceania): Soil moisture provided by typhoons vanished within a year, and the absence of typhoons resulted in extreme drought.
  • Humid Regions (e.g., East Asia): Soil moisture did not deplete entirely even without typhoon rain.

These findings indicate that while a lack of typhoons is a decisive trigger for drought in some regions, it acts as a condition that exacerbates drought in others.

 

Implications for Water Management

This research introduces a new variable for water management in the era of climate change. As typhoon paths and frequencies shift, some regions may face droughts far more severe than anticipated. These impacts may extend beyond agricultural production to include water resource management, urban water supply, and disaster response strategies.

 

Professor Jonghun Kam highlighted the significance of the study, stating:

"While landfalling typhoons have primarily been a research interest as the key cause of flooding and damage, this study scientifically shifts the perspective toward its role in alleviating droughts. The findings of this study highlight the need for climate models that can accurately simulate both typhoons and droughts simultaneously."

This research was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) through the Individual Basic Research Program.

 

New study reveals how volcanic eruptions and internal climate cycles jointly shape Asian monsoon rainfall





Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Monsoon and volcano 

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Major volcanic eruptions inject aerosols into the stratosphere, triggering sea surface temperature changes that can mimic natural climate cycles and reshape monsoon rainfall patterns across Asia.

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Credit: Wenmin Man





From the rice paddies of South Asia to the wheat fields of northern China, summer monsoon rains sustain the livelihoods of billions. Yet these vital rains fluctuate dramatically from decade to decade—a variability that has long puzzled climate scientists.

Now, a study led by Dr. Wenmin Man at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, offers new insight into what drives these swings. The research reveals that volcanic eruptions can trigger rainfall patterns remarkably similar to those produced by natural climate variability—effectively "projecting" their influence onto the ocean-driven cycles that scientists have long studied.

Published in Geophysical Research Letters, the findings help untangle a longstanding question: when Asian monsoon rainfall shifts from one decade to the next, are those changes driven by forces outside the climate system—like volcanic aerosols—or by natural oscillations within it?

The answer, it turns out, is both—and the interplay is more complex than previously understood.

Using paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations covering the past millennium, the research team identified a distinct "tripolar" pattern of summer rainfall variability across Asia. In this pattern, when South Asia gets wetter, Southeast Asia tends to get drier, while northern East Asia's rainfall aligns with South Asia's.

This large-scale pattern, the study confirms, is primarily driven by a natural climate phenomenon known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)—a long-lived cousin of El Niño that shuffles heat and moisture across the Pacific Ocean, with ripple effects reaching far into Asia.

But the story doesn't end there. When the team analyzed periods following major volcanic eruptions, they found strikingly similar rainfall patterns emerging. Volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere can trigger sea surface temperature changes that resemble an IPO-like pattern, effectively tricking the climate system into producing the same tripolar rainfall response.

"Volcanic forcing can 'project' onto the internal variability mode that naturally drives these precipitation patterns," explains Dr. Man. "This means that even when the IPO itself isn't active, large eruptions can create conditions that mimic its influence on Asian rainfall."

Despite these similarities, the researchers found that volcanic-driven and IPO-driven patterns remain distinguishable—with important implications for both past climate understanding and future planning.

The key difference lies in symmetry. IPO-related temperature anomalies tend to be roughly symmetric around the equator. Volcanic forcing, by contrast, produces a distinctly asymmetric pattern, with cooling more pronounced in one hemisphere depending on the eruption's location and timing.

These subtle but systematic differences provide scientists with a way to tease apart how much of any given decadal shift in Asian rainfall comes from internal variability versus external forcing.

The findings carry particular relevance as scientists explore "climate intervention" strategies—deliberate attempts to cool the planet by injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, mimicking the effects of volcanic eruptions.

"If we're considering stratospheric aerosol injection as a potential tool, we need to understand exactly how such interventions might affect regional rainfall patterns," says Dr. Man. "Our research suggests they wouldn't simply counteract warming uniformly—they'd interact with the climate system in complex ways, potentially amplifying or modifying the natural variability that billions of people depend on for their water supply."

The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42588201).