In March 2022, the coalition of left-wing parties known as the Pacto Histórico (Historic Pact) changed the face of Colombian politics by securing the highest voter participation of any internal primary and an unprecedented amount of congressional seats for a progressive political movement. For the first time, the Colombian left had consolidated itself as the strongest force in Congress: over 5.5 million people voted in the coalition’s presidential primary with nearly 4.5 million voting for Gustavo Petro, and the party won 20 Senate seats and 29 seats in the Chamber of Representatives. 

Four years later, as the historic presidency of Gustavo Petro comes to an end, the Pacto, now a formal party, has once again made history. On Sunday, as more than 19 million voters took to the polls to cast ballots in three presidential primaries and the congress, the party held its ground as the strongest force in both chambers of congress—and even increased its representation. While these results could be chalked up to a variety of factors, the popular reforms pushed through in Petro’s presidency played a big role.

But, the Pacto’s gains are fragile. The left, unified under presidential candidate Iván Cepeda, will still need support from additional parties to govern. As of now, polling indicates Cepeda may face off with Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right candidate without the traditional backing of the conservative establishment. The Pacto also faces a serious threat from the traditional right, given the strong turnout in the right-wing presidential primary, where Paloma Valencia—endorsed by former far-right president Álvaro Uribe and his Centro Democrático party—secured over 3 million votes. In addition, the exclusion of Ivan Cepeda from the process of presidential primaries on Sunday, a product of tensions with Colombia’s electoral institutions, means that the left’s real capabilities to mobilize its voters will not be seen until the first round of presidential elections on May 31.

Internal Party Primaries

While three primaries took place on Sunday, none of them included the two front runners in the race for president, the far right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and the leftist Senator Iván Cepeda. De la Espriella, who is representing the far right National Salvation Movement and has run a campaign that looks to emulate the electoral success of Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele, did not participate in the right wing primary because he was not invited by the candidates. Meanwhile Cepeda, who is the Pacto Histórico’s candidate, did not participate in a primary with other leftist parties, which would have enabled him to gain support from other progressives outside of the party. In February, Colombia’s National Electoral Council (CNE) prevented him from running, citing his involvement in the Pacto’s internal primary in October. The CNE’s move was heavily criticized from the left and led to other candidates to drop out of the primary in support of Cepeda.

The largest primary, with over 5 million voters, was that of the Gran Consulta por Colombia, in which nine candidates from the right and center-right competed against each other. The primary included reporter Vicky Davila, far-right Senator Paloma Valencia, and the center-right former Bogotá mayoral candidate Daniel Oviedo. The primary also served to present the winner as a moderate counterweight to De la Espriella, with candidates criticizing homophobic remarks he made about Oviedo and some of his more extreme rhetoric. However, the clear winner was Valencia, who received 3.2 million votes, followed by Oviedo who received over 1.2 million votes. 

Claudia López, the centrist former mayor of Bogotá, also organized a primary to which she invited other centrist candidates to participate, though the only one who chose to join her was the relatively unknown lawyer Leonardo Humberto Huerta Gutiérrez. Notably absent was the former Medellin mayor and Governor of Antioquia, Sergio Fajardo, who was the center ‘s main candidate in 2018 and 2022 and the biggest obstacle to López’s candidacy. The fact that Lopez received a little over 574,000 votes may mean that centrist voters chose to vote in the right ‘s primary instead.

Sectors of the left also organized a primary, though given Cepeda’s exclusion by the CNE, it was officially boycotted by the Pacto Histórico. Despite the boycott, over 500,000 people participated in the primary, where former Senate president Roy Barreras defeated former Medellín mayor Daniel Quintero. However, given the fact many chose to sit the primary out, it’s unclear if it will have any effect on Cepeda’s campaign strategy.

Congressional Elections

While the primary proved to be an impressive show de force for the Colombian right due to the massive turnout in favor of Valencia, the congressional elections showed that the left is still the strongest political force in the country with the Pacto Histórico receiving 25 seats in the Senate and 35 seats in the Chamber of Representatives. This falls short of the majorities needed to push legislation through without building alliances with other parties—including the centrist Green Alliance and Ahora Colombia Alliance, and the less ideological Liberal Party and U Party. If Cepeda wins the presidency, he may face many of the same issues that Petro has faced over the past four years.

However, with more than 4 million votes in the Senate race, the Pacto has shown that their base is much larger than that of the uribistas, and that Cepeda is in a good position to build a larger base before the presidential election. The legislative results also cast doubt on the strength of De la Espriella’s movement, with his party receiving less than 700,000 votes—far short of his expected vote total in the presidential election. 

The Pacto came in first in the Senate race in 12 departments, including the capital, Bogotá, and it was the second most voted party in the department of Antioquia, a well-known right-wing enclave. This is an incredible achievement given that voting outside of Colombia’s major cities is often heavily influenced by local elites, thus hampering the left’s ability to grow. 

The election results were full of other surprises too, including the success of a series of younger candidates and political influencers; well-known politicians who lost their seats; and political veterans like former president Uribe who failed to enter congress. Even still, the results were clear: the country remains polarized between the left, represented by the Pacto, and a far-right largely split amongst the Centro Democrático and De la Espriella.

 Afro-Colombian, Indigenous, and Victims’ Representation 

Colombia’s electoral system awards a number of congressional seats to Indigenous and Afro-Colombian peoples, victims of the armed conflict, and the runner up of the presidential elections. While the seats awarded to the opposition are awarded to the presidential and vice-presidential candidates that come in second place, the other seats have unique electoral processes that are distinct from those for the seats based on territorial representation. Two Senate seats and a seat in the Chamber of Representatives are reserved for Indigenous peoples while Afro-Colombians are represented through two seats in the Chamber of Representatives. However, anyone can request Indigenous or Afro-Colombian ballots instead of the departmental ballots, even if they don’t identify as Afro-Colombian or Indigenous, which has led these seats being hijacked by actors who do not have the interests of the community.

This was the case with Miguel Polo Polo, one of the two representatives for Afro-Colombian peoples elected in 2022. Due to his far-right ties and claims that brushed off the historic legacies of colonialism and slavery, critics alleged that he did not represent the interests of Afro-Colombian communities. On Sunday, there was a strong push to get Colombians of all ethnicities to request the Afro-Colombian ballot in order to vote him out of office and replace him with a left leaning candidate with stronger ties to Afro-Colombian communities, a campaign that resulted in the election of the Afro-Colombian lawyer Oscar Benavides. Similarly, following critiques of the two biggest Indigenous political parties, MAIS and AICO, for their close ties to traditional politicians, the Regional Indigenous Council of Cauca (CRIC)—one of the more militant indigenous organizations—ran a candidate with its new party and won one of the Indigenous seats in the Chamber of representatives.  

For the second time, Colombians in the regions most affected by the armed conflict also had the chance to vote for an additional representative from a non-political social organization. The Special Transitory Seats for Peace (CITREP), created by the 2016 Peace Agreement with the FARC, held elections in rural areas that coincided with the 16 districts that were—and continue to be—most affected by the conflict. These seats, too, have been co-opted: one of the seats is occupied by Jorge Rodrigo Tovar, the son of the infamous paramilitary commander, Rodrigo Tovar Pupo, known as Jorge 40. For the first time since 2018, Comunes, the political party successor to the FARC, was not guaranteed 10 seats of special representation in congress as part of the peace agreement. Comunes will have no congressional representatives after its weak results on Sunday. 

Should the Left be Optimistic? 

The high turnout in the right’s primary means that the left will have to win over voters who may be disillusioned with Petro’s governance. Valencia’s success also shows that the spectre of uribismo—wounded after the brief conviction of Uribe himself in August—continues to haunt Colombia. The left now has to worry about the possibility of going against Paloma Valencia in the second round, an experienced politician and the granddaughter of Conservative president Guillermo Leon Valencia. She may be able to gather more support from the center than De la Espriella, especially if she is able to rely upon allies like Oviedo to project a more moderate image. 

Even still, the congressional results show that the Pacto Histórico has gained ground and is in a strong place. Looking at the upcoming presidential election, the signs are trending positive. Fresh off of a meeting with Trump and a massive increase to the minimum wage, Petro’s approval rating is at a historic high. In addition, Cepeda’s calm and collected demeanor may be able to show that he can bridge the divide with the center without watering down the Pacto Histórico’s agenda.

If Colombia’s left can win, they may be able to buck the regional trend towards the right. Cepeda’s decision to choose the former Nasa indigenous Senator and CRIC leader Aida Quilcué shows that the Pacto Histórico is not planning on compromising its principles and plans to run a campaign to deepen the changes that began in Petro’s presidency. But the stakes have never been higher. The Colombian right has two candidates, Valencia and De la Espriella, who are intent on undoing the changes of the Petro administration and possibly rolling back the gains of the 2016 Peace Agreement. Meanwhile, the Latin American left is reeling from the Trump administration’s kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and threats of intervention in Cuba, and has been unable to present a united front. A Cepeda victory would go a long way to show that the U.S. grip on the region is more fragile than it seems.Email