July 8, 2026
By Dr. Ikboljon Kasimov and Ikhtiyorkhon Jabborov
Key Takeaways
Rising Global Demand — Critical minerals like copper, rare earths, gallium, and germanium are essential for EVs, renewable energy, and AI, driving structural demand growth and supply security concerns amid China’s dominance in processing.
Uzbekistan’s Export Growth — Critical mineral exports rose ~33% from $6.85B in 2020 to $9.13B in 2024, led by gold and copper, positioning Uzbekistan as an emerging supplier amid global diversification efforts.
Need for Value Addition — Most exports remain raw or low-processed materials; expanding domestic refining (e.g., Uzbekistan Technological Metals Complex model) and securing technology transfers are key to capturing higher value in global chains.
Introduction
Critical and strategic minerals, including copper, rare earth elements, gallium, germanium, tungsten, nickel, and other technology-related metals, have assumed a position in industrial policy comparable to that once occupied by oil and gold. This shift reflects the convergence of three major transformations: transport electrification, renewable energy expansion, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, all of which depend on a relatively narrow range of mineral inputs (Bloomberg, 2026). As demand continues to accelerate, concerns regarding supply security and processing concentration have intensified, increasing the strategic importance of countries that control extraction and refining capacity. This article examines the principal drivers of global demand for critical and strategic minerals and evaluates Uzbekistan’s export performance, its role in international supply chains, and opportunities to increase domestic value addition.
Structural Demand Drivers
A mineral is generally classified as critical when it is both economically essential and vulnerable to supply disruption. Such vulnerability typically arises when extraction or refining activities are concentrated in a limited number of countries and commercially viable substitutes are unavailable. The addition of copper to the United States critical-minerals list in 2025 demonstrates how rapidly strategic assessments are evolving in response to technological and industrial change. Electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies are currently the most established drivers of mineral demand. According to Elements (2022), an electric vehicle requires approximately six times more mineral inputs than a conventional internal-combustion vehicle, while an onshore wind turbine requires roughly nine times more mineral resources than a comparable gas-fired power facility. These technologies depend heavily on copper, rare earth elements, nickel, and other strategic minerals that support electrification and energy storage systems.
Artificial intelligence has emerged as an additional and rapidly expanding source of demand. The construction of hyperscale data centers requires significant quantities of copper for power transmission, cooling systems, and digital infrastructure. Advanced semiconductors further depend on materials such as gallium and germanium. According to S&P Global (2026), global copper demand is projected to increase from approximately 28 million metric tons in 2025 to more than 42 million metric tons by 2040, with digital infrastructure and AI-related investments becoming increasingly important contributors. At the same time, global supply remains highly concentrated. China dominates the processing of rare earth elements and maintains a leading position in the production and refining of several strategic minerals. Recent export restrictions have highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with concentrated supply chains and have encouraged major economies to pursue diversification strategies. As a result, countries with commercially viable mineral reserves and stable investment environments are becoming increasingly important participants in global supply networks.
These developments create significant opportunities for resource-rich economies such as Uzbekistan. Growing demand, combined with international efforts to diversify sourcing arrangements, provides favorable conditions for expanding mineral exports and increasing participation in higher-value segments of global supply chains.
Uzbekistan’s Export Profile and Contribution to Global Supply Chains
Uzbekistan possesses an established mining sector. The Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex, founded in 1949, remains the country’s sole copper producer, while the state-owned Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Complex ranks among the largest gold producers globally. Uzbekistan’s copper reserves rank eleventh worldwide, and the government has identified thirty-two critical minerals with commercial potential.
Figure 1. Uzbekistan’s critical mineral export value, 2020–2024 (USD million). Source: Developed by the author based on data from Stat.uz
Export data indicate that Uzbekistan’s critical and strategic mineral exports increased from approximately USD 6.85 billion in 2020 to USD 9.13 billion in 2024, representing growth of roughly 33 percent over the five-year period (Figure 1). Export revenues fluctuated moderately during 2021 and 2022 before increasing sharply in 2023, when total exports reached nearly USD 9.63 billion. Although export earnings declined slightly in 2024, they remained substantially above earlier levels, underscoring the growing importance of mineral commodities in Uzbekistan’s export structure. The export profile is highly concentrated in a small number of mineral categories. Gold consistently accounts for the largest share of export revenues, followed by copper. Aluminum, zinc, and nickel contribute comparatively smaller shares but remain strategically relevant for industrial diversification and participation in emerging technology-related value chains.
Export data indicate that Uzbekistan’s critical and strategic mineral exports increased from approximately USD 6.85 billion in 2020 to USD 9.13 billion in 2024, representing growth of roughly 33 percent over the five-year period (Figure 1). Export revenues fluctuated moderately during 2021 and 2022 before increasing sharply in 2023, when total exports reached nearly USD 9.63 billion. Although export earnings declined slightly in 2024, they remained substantially above earlier levels, underscoring the growing importance of mineral commodities in Uzbekistan’s export structure. The export profile is highly concentrated in a small number of mineral categories. Gold consistently accounts for the largest share of export revenues, followed by copper. Aluminum, zinc, and nickel contribute comparatively smaller shares but remain strategically relevant for industrial diversification and participation in emerging technology-related value chains.
| Category | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Five-Year Change |
| Gold | $ 5 950,20 | $ 4 526,67 | $ 4 312,44 | $ 8 334,56 | $ 7 751,59 | 30% |
| Copper | $ 729,08 | $ 1 170,86 | $ 1 107,78 | $ 1 106,24 | $ 1 194,04 | 64% |
| Nickel | $ 1,55 | $ 1,38 | $ 0,63 | $ 1,21 | $ 1,59 | 2% |
| Aluminum | $ 21,90 | $ 53,32 | $ 54,47 | $ 44,77 | $ 66,93 | 206% |
| Zinc | $ 149,11 | $ 198,64 | $ 239,73 | $ 147,20 | $ 115,37 | -23% |
The composition of mineral exports reveals differing growth trajectories across commodity groups. Gold exports increased by approximately 30 percent between 2020 and 2024, reaching USD 7.75 billion and maintaining their position as the dominant source of mineral-export earnings (Table 1). Although export revenues fluctuated throughout the period, gold continues to play a central role in supporting foreign-exchange earnings and macroeconomic stability.
Copper exports increased by approximately 64 percent over the same period, rising from USD 729 million to nearly USD 1.2 billion. Given copper’s importance in renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, electricity networks, and artificial intelligence infrastructure, this trend positions Uzbekistan well to benefit from long-term structural demand growth. Among the remaining categories, aluminum demonstrated the strongest growth, expanding by more than 200 percent between 2020 and 2024. Although its overall contribution remains modest compared with gold and copper, this performance suggests increasing opportunities in industrial and technology-oriented supply chains. Nickel exports remained relatively stable, while zinc exports declined by approximately 23 percent, making zinc the only major category in the sample to record a sustained contraction during the review period.
Overall, Uzbekistan’s contribution to global mineral supply chains remains modest compared with leading producers such as Chile, Australia, and China. Nevertheless, growing international efforts to diversify supply sources have increased the strategic importance of emerging producers. Uzbekistan’s geological diversity, geographic position, and expanding international partnerships provide a strong foundation for strengthening its role within global critical and strategic mineral markets.
Increasing Value-Added Output
A significant proportion of Uzbekistan’s current exports consists of raw ore, concentrate, or unrefined bullion rather than the refined or battery-grade materials that capture the greatest value within these supply chains. The 2024 establishment of the Uzbekistan Technological Metals Complex, intended to build a complete processing chain from raw material to finished product for tungsten and molybdenum, represents a substantive step toward addressing this gap. Extending this model to copper, alongside planned production of selenium, tellurium, and rhenium, constitutes a logical next phase. Investment in battery- and semiconductor-grade refining, rather than extraction capacity alone, is likely to yield the greatest increase in captured value, as this stage of the chain generates the highest margins.
Uzbekistan’s engagement with multiple partners, including a February 2026 critical minerals memorandum with the United States, participation in the FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) initiative, and interest from Azerbaijan’s AzerGold, provides leverage to negotiate technology transfer alongside capital (CFR 2026; Times of Central Asia 2026). Concurrent investment in domestic technical capacity, including metallurgical training and planned research infrastructure in Chirchik, is a necessary complement, as extraction rights alone do not confer the capacity to process materials domestically.
Constraints merit acknowledgment: refining infrastructure requires substantial capital and extended timelines; water and environmental considerations are significant given existing scarcity; and managing simultaneous interest from the United States, the European Union, and China will require policy discipline.
Conclusion and policy recommendations
Global demand for critical minerals is being driven by transport electrification, renewable energy deployment, and the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, alongside a pronounced effort by major economies to reduce dependence on concentrated sources of supply. This combination presents a favorable environment for a mineral-rich, geologically diverse producer such as Uzbekistan to secure advantageous terms for capital and technology. The data examined indicate measurable growth, though concentrated in a limited number of commodities and weighted toward unprocessed materials. Whether Uzbekistan converts current agreements into refining capacity and higher-value finished products will determine whether it secures a durable position within global supply chains, rather than remaining a supplier of raw material.
Based on the analysis above, refining capacity should take priority over further extraction expansion, since export value remains concentrated in raw ore, concentrate, and bullion rather than higher-margin processed materials. The Uzbekistan Technological Metals Complex’s concentrate-to-finished-product model, already applied to tungsten and molybdenum, should be extended to copper and to the planned selenium, tellurium, and rhenium lines. Lithium and platinum group metals warrant targeted investment, as both declined in export value over 2020–2024 despite being the categories global buyers most want diversified. Technology transfer should be negotiated across the existing U.S. memorandum, the FORGE initiative, and AzerGold engagement, while also evaluating technical cooperation with Chinese refiners on commercial merit, given China’s processing expertise. This requires parallel investment in metallurgical training and the Chirchik research infrastructure, without which extraction rights alone will not build domestic processing capacity. Water-resource and environmental planning should be built into project design from the outset, given Uzbekistan’s existing scarcity constraints, to avoid delays as agreements move to construction
References
Bloomberg (2026). Critical Minerals: The Core of the Modern Economy. Available at: https://sponsored.bloomberg.com/immersive/globalx/charting-disruption/critical-minerals
China Briefing. (2025). China’s Rare Earth Elements Dominance in Global Supply Chains. Available at: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-rare-earth-elements-dominance-in-global-supply-chains/
Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). (2026). U.S. Allies Aim to Break China’s Critical Minerals Dominance. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/articles/u-s-allies-aim-to-break-chinas-critical-minerals-dominance
Elements. (2022). EVs vs. Gas Vehicles: What Are Cars Made Out Of? Available at: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/evs-vs-gas-vehicles-what-are-cars-made-out-of/
Grand View Research. (2025). Electric Vehicle Battery Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis. Available at: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-electric-vehicle-battery-market
McKinsey & Company. (2025). Amped-Up Battery Demand. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/amped-up-battery-demand
S&P Global. (2026). Copper in the Age of AI. Available at: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/copper-in-the-age-of-ai
Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Stat.uz). (2025).
Foreign Trade Statistics and Mineral Export Data. Available at: https://stat.uz
Times of Central Asia. (2026). Azerbaijan Moves into Uzbekistan’s Gold and Critical Minerals Sector. Available at: https://timesca.com/azerbaijan-moves-into-uzbekistans-gold-and-critical-minerals-sector/
U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA). (2026). Uzbekistan Mining and Quarrying Sectors. Available at: https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/uzbekistan-mining-and-quarrying-sectors
World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). (2026). Uzbekistan Trade Profile. Available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/UZB
About the authors:
Dr. Ikboljon Kasimov – Assoc. Professor of Business and Economics at the Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship
Mr. Ikhtiyorkhon Jabborov – Chief Specialist, Research and Grants Department at the Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship
About Dr. Ikboljon Kasimov
Dr. Ikboljon Kasimov is an economist specializing in foreign trade and investment, structural transformation, business and entrepreneurship, and sustainable development in developing countries, with a particular focus on transition economies. He has led and contributed to research on the impact of FDI on economic growth and energy intensity, export diversification, and the search for new prospective markets for Uzbekistan’s goods and services. Dr. Kasimov actively engages with policymakers, providing evidence-based input on trade, investment, and sustainable development strategies
View all posts by Dr. Ikboljon Kasimov →
About Ikhtiyorkhon Jabborov
Ikhtiyorkhon Jabborov – Chief Specialist, Research and Grants Department at the Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship
View all posts by Ikhtiyorkhon Jabborov →
No comments:
Post a Comment