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Saturday, September 26, 2026

Nigeria faces world’s highest heat death toll as El Nino bears down on Sahel

Extreme heat generated by this year's El Nino is projected to cause up to 67,000 additional deaths across the Sahel over the next six months, with Nigeria facing the highest death toll of any country in the world.



Issued on: 24/09/2026 - RFI
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A boy carries drinking water for sale at a street market in Abuja, Nigeria. Scientists estimate Nigeria could face the world's highest heat-related death toll from the current El Nino. AP - Ben Curtis

The Climate Impact Lab, a research group based at the University of Chicago, predicts there will be 66,800 extra deaths across the Sahel, the dry belt along the southern edge of the Sahara, between September and February compared with a normal year.

Nigeria alone accounts for 31,400 of these, followed by Sudan with 17,500, Niger with 10,000 and Chad with 8,000.

Worldwide, around 239,000 more heat-related deaths are likely to be seen over the same six months. Counting from June, when the current El Nino began, the estimated global toll rises to 451,000 by the end of February.

“This is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours, people going to work, caring for families and living their lives,” said Michael Greenstone, a University of Chicago economist and co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab.


Emergency measures

The El Nino phenomenon is marked by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific and can disrupt weather around the world. This year's could become the strongest on record.

The projections cover deaths caused by extreme heat alone, but they come in addition to the death toll from droughts, wildfires and flooding linked to higher temperatures and shifting rainfall, said the report, which was published on Wednesday.

Some of the heaviest losses will come later in the six-month period. Nigeria could record 15,400 additional heat deaths between December and February – leaving more time to act.

Heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration stations and protection for outdoor workers are among measures that could help reduce the toll, the researchers found.

“This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” Greenstone said.

Some of these measures are already under way to protect communities.

“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year,” said Tamma Carleton, the lab's faculty head of research and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

“But 20 years from now, once today's extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don't want to be in a constant state of emergency.”

The projections will be updated as El Nino develops, the lab added.

A call to action

The analysis has not yet been independently peer reviewed, although the methods behind it have.

Scientists calculated the projections using research into the relationship between temperature and deaths in more than 24,000 regions worldwide, combined with seasonal temperature forecasts.

The findings should be treated as a call to action rather than simply another warning about extreme heat, Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat expert at the Natural Resources Defence Council India who was not involved in the research, told the Associated Press.

“The real measure of our preparedness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths,” he said.

El Nino is forecast to last until the northern hemisphere spring of 2027, while heat-related deaths could remain high into June or July, researchers said.
Conservationists Call Trump’s Latest Endangered Species Policy ‘All-Out War on America’s Wildlife’

The new interpretation of the 1973 law “is not conservation,” warned one critic. “It is a license to destroy habitat, disrupt migration, pollute ecosystems, and drive endangered species toward extinction.”



Two American bald eagles are perched on a nesting stand at the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge  in Cambridge, Maryland.
(Photo by Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post via Getty Images)


Jessica Corbett
Sep 17, 2026
COMMON DREAMS

Wildlife defenders continued to call out President Donald Trump on Thursday after The New York Times exposed his administration’s latest attack on endangered species and the landmark law intended to protect them.

The Times reported late Wednesday that as the administration’s rule rescinding the regulatory definition of “harm” under the Endangered Species Act took effect earlier this week, the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) internally circulated a memo interpreting the ESA to mean that only the intentional killing or wounding of a protected species is illegal.

“This memorandum—and other recent Endangered Species Act regulatory rollbacks such as the rescission of the long-standing interpretation of ‘harm’—make clear that the Trump administration has declared an all-out war on America’s wildlife,” said Andrew Bowman, president and CEO at Defenders of Wildlife.

“The administration’s absurdly narrow statutory reinterpretation hamstrings the ESA’s effectiveness and makes a mockery of our nation’s half-century commitment to saving and recovering America’s imperiled wildlife,” Bowman charged. “This reinterpretation flies in the face of the ESA’s plain language and common sense, as well as Congress’ intent more than 50 years ago in enacting the ESA to achieve the goal of protecting and fully recovering listed species.”

Oceana vice president Beth Lowell highlighted that “the proposed changes to the Endangered Species Act will remove the core safeguards that have prevented the extinction of 99% of species protected under the act.”

“Federally permitted activities that incidentally injure and kill endangered species currently need to take into account their unintended impacts on wildlife, including nesting beaches for sea turtles or North Atlantic mother and calf pairs as they swim to their feeding grounds,” Lowell noted. “These changes upend the Endangered Species Act’s balance of economic activity and needed protections, pushing species to the brink of extinction.”



The US Department of the Interior, which oversees FWS, told The Hill that the memo “accurately reflects the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s guidance for implementing the Endangered Species Act following the final rule rescinding the regulatory definition of ‘harm.’”

“Under the guidance, the ESA’s prohibition on ‘take’ continues to prohibit conduct including harassing, pursuing, hunting, shooting, wounding, killing, trapping, capturing or collecting protected wildlife,” the department said.

Susan Holmes, executive director of the Endangered Species Coalition—which includes 475 member organizations and over half a million activists—argued that the new interpretation of the law “is not conservation. It is a license to destroy habitat, disrupt migration, pollute ecosystems, and drive endangered species toward extinction.”

“The administration has already eliminated habitat protection for endangered species with its extreme ESA ‘harm’ rule. It is using the so-called ‘God Squad’ to exempt oil and gas drilling in the Gulf from the ESA, and is threatening to eliminate protections for wolves,” she pointed out. “This coordinated effort aims to strip the ESA of its power.”

“If the Trump administration has its way, piping plovers will lose the beaches where they nest,” Holmes warned. “Salmon will be pushed closer to extinction by dams, pollution, water diversions, and destroyed habitat. Grizzly bears will lose the connected landscapes they need to survive as roads, energy development, logging, and other activities fragment their habitat. Rice’s whale—the only whale to live only in American waters—will be lost forever.”

The coalition leader added that “the Endangered Species Act is our most popular and effective wildlife law, with support from 84% of Americans. We must not accept the destruction of a law that has protected our natural heritage for generations. The ESA must be defended, strengthened, and fully enforced—not gutted by political appointees acting on behalf of powerful industries.”



Humane World for Animals president and CEO Kitty Block and Sara Amundson, head of Humane World Action Fund, also cataloged the administration’s various attacks on protected species—and drew attention to a clear pattern regarding “who stands to benefit from these continued assaults on one of America’s most popular laws for animals.”

“It’s certainly not the average American,” they wrote in a Thursday blog post. “Instead, the beneficiaries are the massive industries that profit from destroying vital habitat and the animals who depend on it for survival. Oil and gas companies and other developers that have to (horror of horrors!) apply for a permit when their activities [pose] a risk of killing animals with federal endangered species protections—such as North Atlantic right whales, gray wolves, and black-footed ferrets, to name just a few—could be handed a pass.”

“If this reinterpretation takes effect, more endangered animals will surely die,” the pair declared. “And we will all be worse off for it.”



Israel’s US-Backed Assault on Gaza Has Created the ‘World’s Most Severe Economic Crisis on Record’: UN

“We have moved from development blocked to development reversed,” said the UN official behind a new report.



Palestinian mother Ismet Subh cooks food on a makeshift stove as her family struggles to survive in difficult conditions, living in a makeshift tent in Gaza City, Gaza, Palestine, on September 22, 2026.
(Photo by Hamza Z. H. Qraiqea/Anadolu via Getty Images)




Stephen Prager
Sep 25, 2026
COMMON DREAMS


Israel’s US-backed military assault on Gaza has not only caused mass death and destruction; it has also created “the world’s most severe economic crisis on record,” according to Pedro Manuel Moreno, the acting secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Moreno presented a recent report at a press conference on Thursday showing that 92% of economic establishments in Gaza—including shops, factories, restaurants, and farms—have been damaged or destroyed since Israel launched its assault on the territory in October 2023 and reduced most of its infrastructure to rubble.

Less than 1.5% of cropland across the strip remained accessible and undamaged, while more than half of its hospitals and primary health clinics have been rendered nonfunctional.

Compared with 2022, Gaza’s main productive sectors have been almost entirely wiped out: Agricultural and industrial output were each down 94%, while construction was down 99% in 2025. With most of its economic capacity destroyed, unemployment in the exclave skyrocketed to 78% in 2025, while tremendous scarcity led prices to soar to 274% above 2022 levels.


Dropping to just 17% of its 2022 level, Gaza’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita cratered to $212 in 2025, equivalent to about 58 cents per person per day.

“Productive capacity is wiped out while the entire population is displaced and condemned to multidimensional poverty,” said UNCTAD’s coordinator for assistance to the Palestinians, Mutasim Elagraa, who led work on the report. “By multidimensional poverty I mean not just income poverty; it’s also a lack of proper shelter, a lack of access to basic services like health and education and sanitation.”

“Before the onset of this crisis in October 2023, two out of three residents were poor,” Elagraa continued. “Today, everyone in Gaza is multidimensionally poor.”

These conditions have increased the territory’s reliance on outside aid, which Israel has often blocked, leading UN experts and human rights organizations to accuse its leaders of using starvation and deprivation as “weapons of war.”

The International Criminal Court has found reasonable grounds to believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who gave a defiant speech denying Israel’s responsibility for genocide at the UN General Assembly Thursday—bears criminal responsibility for the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare.

The report estimates that $71.5 billion will be needed for recovery and reconstruction, as well as $35.2 billion in physical infrastructure damage and $22.7 billion in economic and social losses.

“Restoring the collapsed health system, rebuilding destroyed education infrastructure and other public infrastructure will need to go together while restoring productive capacity, employment, functioning markets and the ability for businesses to operate,” Moreno said. “Peace cannot be built on a collapsed economy.”



Though the report emphasizes how Israel’s bombardment has brought near-apocalyptic conditions upon the strip, it notes that Gaza’s economic deprivation dates back decades before the Hamas-led attack in October 2023, which was the catalyst for the unprecedented assault.

It noted that 59 years of Israeli occupation of Palestine had severely stunted its economic growth, particularly as it tightened its blockade of Gaza in the last two decades.

Previous UNCTAD analyses have shown that between 2006, a year before Israel began its land, air, and sea blockade of Gaza, and 2022, Gaza’s real GDP per capita fell by 37% while its productive economy, including agriculture and manufacturing, was hollowed out by Israel’s restrictions on movement and imports. Even before 2023, nearly half of Gaza’s workforce was unemployed, roughly two-thirds lived in poverty, and 80% depended on international aid.

“The central message of this report we are talking about today is that about six decades of occupation have hollowed out the Palestinian economy and de-developed it,” Elagraa said. “We have moved from development blocked to development reversed, and now decades of human development that has been achieved in Gaza has been wiped out.”

“Although the intensity of destruction is far more in Gaza” than in the West Bank, he said, the report showed the “destruction” to be “a dramatic escalation of a pattern that dates back to 1967 with the onset of occupation.”

“The report,” he said, “maintains that history did not start in October 2023.”

Croatian opposition seeks to oust PM over waste scandal

Croatian opposition seeks to oust PM over waste scandal
SDP leaders announce they are seeking a vote of confidence in PM Andrej Plenkovic. / SDPFacebook
By IntelliNews September 26, 2026

Croatia's main opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) has submitted a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic over the illegal dumping of tens of thousands of tonnes of waste near the central town of Gospic, escalating political pressure on the government over the environmental scandal.

SDP lawmakers submitted the motion to parliament on September 25 with 54 signatures, seeking a debate on Plenkovic's political responsibility for the affair, a party statement said. The initiative has also won support from the green-left Mozemo! party and several smaller opposition groups, while the right-wing Most party and independent MPs Marija and Nino Raspudic have signed the motion.

"Today, we submitted a proposal to the Croatian parliament to initiate a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, along with 54 collected signatures from MPs," SDP political secretary Sasa Djujic told a news conference in parliament.

The motion focuses on the discovery of between 34,000 and 37,000 tonnes of waste at an industrial site near Gospic, much of it imported from Italy in 2023 and 2024. Investigators suspect illegal waste-management activities, while prosecutors are examining possible corruption and failures of state oversight.

Djujic said the scale and duration of the dumping meant political responsibility extended beyond those directly involved in handling the waste.

"Andreј Plenkovic has been leading the government for years, which passes regulations, regulates oversight and elects people to lead institutions," he said. "Citizens therefore have the right to demand an answer from him as to how the system he leads allowed such a case."

The opposition argues that around 37,000 tonnes of waste could not have been transported and stored over several years without failures in supervision. It also links the affair to changes in waste-management regulations and what it describes as a weakening of safeguards protecting the public interest.

The SDP also highlighted the State Inspectorate and its former head Andrija Mikulic, who was appointed by Plenkovic's government and was arrested in November 2025 in a corruption investigation related to illegal waste disposal. Mikulic denies the allegations.

"We are particularly raising the issue of the State Inspectorate and the corruption suspicions related to its former head, Andrija Mikulic, who was appointed by the Plenkovic government," Djujic said.

SDP deputy speaker Sabina Glasovac accused the government of systematically weakening environmental controls, saying waste imports had tripled since 2015 while supervision had declined.

"Waste imports have tripled since 2015, supervision has been decreasing for ten years and the control system has been weakening, you abolished shipment notifications in 2019 and the importer register in 2021, while fines have been reduced seven times," she said.

The controversy has intensified following public protests. Thousands gathered in central Zagreb on September 5 for a demonstration organised by the NGO Gospić je naš dom, demanding action over the waste stored near Gospic. The protest came after repeated government promises to accelerate the cleanup.

The government says the operation is unusually complex because much of the material is buried and there is no suitable facility in Croatia for its disposal. It has selected contractors to cover the site and remove waste stored in bags and is seeking a European company capable of handling the buried material.

Plenkovic said earlier this month that the cleanup was entering a new phase and that a procedure for removing the buried waste should be completed within 20 days. The government estimates that about 4,500 tonnes of waste is on the surface, with another 32,000 to 33,000 tonnes of ash buried at the site.

Environmental concerns were heightened this week by findings from experts working with Croatia's anti-corruption office USKOK, which detected hundreds of thousands of microplastic particles in groundwater monitoring wells near the site. The findings do not establish that public drinking water is unsafe, and the government has said testing has found no evidence requiring residents to stop using the public water supply.

The SDP argues, however, that the case exposes wider weaknesses in Croatia's waste-management system.

"Our position is clear - the prime minister must be held accountable for the way his government managed this problem and for the lack of timely protection of citizens," Djujic said.

The government has rejected opposition claims that it bears political responsibility for the illegal dumping, stressing that prosecutors and anti-corruption investigators are pursuing those responsible and that the priority is to remove the waste safely.

Thursday, September 24, 2026

THE GRIFT
‘It Should Be Illegal’: Trump’s 1,156 July Stock Trades Involved AI, Big Oil, Weapons-Makers, and More

By failing to report some transactions within 45 days, the president appears to have violated a key federal law, again.


US President Donald Trump stands next to a bell before ringing it to open the New York Stock Exchange ahead of the launch of tax-deferred investment accounts for children in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 6, 2026.
(Photo by Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

Jessica Corbett
Sep 22, 2026
COMMON DREAMS

Donald Trump has been repeatedly ripped as “the most openly corrupt president in American history” by a range of critics, and the Republican faced fresh criticism on Tuesday after disclosing more than 1,100 securities transactions from July.

“The 1,156 purchases and sales totaled between roughly $79 million and $270 million,” CNBC reported. “Purchases totaled at least $43.6 million, while sales came to at least $35.6 million... in what appears to be a broad reshuffling of his portfolio.”

US Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who has previously sounded the alarm over Trump’s “unprecedented” trading, said on social media Tuesday that “it should be illegal for the president to trade individual stocks—period.”

As Trump continues to rail against regulations on artificial intelligence, the filing with the Office of Government Ethics shows recent transactions involving tech giants including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle.

The president is also waging an illegal war on Iran with no end in sight, and those who manage his portfolio made trades involving military contractors such as GE Aerospace, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Palantir, and SpaceX.

CNBC highlighted that the Northrop Grumman sale—worth $250,001 to $500,000—occurred the same day that “Trump signed an executive order tightening supply chain requirements for defense contractors and restricting waivers for certain critical materials sourced from China and other covered countries,” though the disclosure does not include timing.

Iran has responded to Trump’s war by restricting ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused fuel prices to surge worldwide. The president was accused of cashing in on the crisis he has created after he disclosed June stock transactions. The new filing shows more trades in oil and gas giants, including Chevron and ExxonMobil.

The Washington Sun pointed out that “Trump also purchased up to $500,000 worth of stock in Axon Enterprise, the manufacturer of Tasers, which has done tens of millions of dollars worth of business with US Immigration and Customs Enforcemen/t and US Customs and Border Protection.”

While “Trump is ostensibly aware of the contents of his portfolio, given that he personally certified his most recent disclosure, which bears his signature,” the Sun noted, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle tried to dismiss any allegations of corruption in a statement to multiple outlets.

“President Trump’s stock and bond portfolio is independently managed by third-party financial institutions,” Ingle said. “All holdings are maintained in discretionary accounts and invested through computer-based model portfolios that automatically replicate recognized indexes, such as the Schwab 1000.”

“Neither President Trump nor any member of his family has any ability to direct, influence, or provide input regarding how the portfolio is invested or when investments are bought or sold,” he added. “All investment decisions are made entirely by independent managers. There are no conflicts of interest.”

However, as the Sun highlighted, “a number of Trump’s trades were disclosed more than 45 days after they were made—in violation of the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act, which also applies to top officials in the executive branch. It’s not the first time the president has run afoul of the stock trading law.”



Despite bipartisan support at times, congressional efforts to fully ban trading by lawmakers, their dependents, and the president and vice president have been unsuccessful.

In July, 13 Democrats in the US House of Representatives helped Republicans pass a purported congressional stock trading ban— even though the bill wouldn’t apply to Trump or Vice President JD Vance, and the GOP tacked on a voter suppression provision demanded by the president.

The Senate has not yet acted on the bill, officially called the Stop Insider Trading Act, and condemned by critics as “a Trojan horse.”

Trump’s disclosure came a week after Bloomberg reported that “Trump has traded more securities than every member of Congress combined since he returned to office” last year. From January 2025 to June 2026, lawmakers reported a collective 22,200 transactions while the president made nearly 28,700.



Sharing the reporting on social media last week, House Democrats wrote: “The American people deserve a president that serves their interests, not his own wallet.”

Annual financial disclosures released this summer show that Trump pocketed at least $2.2 billion—over half of it from his family’s cryptocurrency grift—during his first year back in the White House.

Following that revelation, Warren, ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, called on the chamber to pass legislation aimed at stopping “the president, vice president, senior administration officials, members of Congress, and their families from profiting off the crypto industry,” and warned that a failure to do so “will only turbocharge Donald Trump’s brazen crypto corruption.”

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

 

Africa’s Red Sea States Face Growing Risks as Houthis Expand Their Reach

Yemen
Bab el-Mandeb is a critical chokepoint for maritime trade (NASA)

Published Sep 18, 2026 7:09 PM by The Conversation



[By Burak Sakir Seker]

The Houthi takeover of parts of the Red Sea gives the armed group a new platform to challenge global shipping. The group has taken over the port of Mocha, the island of Mayyun, and the Zuqar and Hanish archipelago about 160km north of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. These areas were previously controlled by Yemeni government forces.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a narrow maritime chokepoint roughly 32km wide. Lying between the Arabian Peninsula to the north-east and the Horn of Africa to the south-west, it directly links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

This geography matters. Mayyun Island, for example, divides a waterway that is used by international shipping. Historically, this passage accounts for about 12% of global trade.

The African side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait hasn’t been taken over by the Houthis. But the group’s September 2026 advance has serious economic and security implications for Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Eritrea, with the potential to escalate existing conflicts in Somalia and Sudan.

The Houthis are an Iran-aligned armed movement that controls much of Yemen, and has been fighting the country’s internationally recognised government since seizing the capital in 2014.

I have studied global maritime geopolitics and security, including issues involving the Red Sea, for more than two decades. In my view, the Houthi threat is not just a logistical one. It also poses a strategic danger to Africa’s Red Sea states.
 
The African shoreline is suddenly much more valuable to outsiders who want to monitor, contain or outflank the waterway opposite them. The Houthis now occupy armed posts around the strait, bringing the threat closer to the critical shipping corridor.

As it stands, an Iran-backed non-state armed group may now be able to deploy missiles, mines and fast-attack craft along an extended length of the eastern Red Sea. At the same time, Iran retains the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz.

This raises the risk of simultaneous disruption at two important maritime chokepoints, potentially leaving ships with no safe route through the Red Sea.

The risks for Africa

Disruption on the Red Sea cascades through four channels of African economies: shipping and insurance costs, port revenue, energy and food prices, and maritime security risks.

Red Sea states

Egypt

Egypt bears the highest direct financial risk. In 2024, the decline in Red Sea traffic resulting from Houthi attacks on commercial shipping cost Cairo an estimated US$7 billion in lost Suez Canal revenue. Revenue reached US$4.67 billion for the fiscal year 2025-26, which represents a 23% increase compared to the previous year. But if the diversion of shipping continues, it will soon reverse the improvement in revenue.

Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea

Over 2,000 people fleeing the hostilities in western Yemen have crossed over to Djibouti’s northern shores. Renewed fighting has pushed displacement since the escalation began in early September 2026 to nearly 94,000.

Djibouti is also a key external trade conduit for Ethiopia, which is landlocked. Ethiopia conducts approximately 95% of its trade via Djibouti.

Eritrea is also vulnerable along the frontlines. Its geographical position makes it attractive to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which want to ensure that Iran and the Houthis don’t have too much influence on the African side of the Red Sea.

Somalia and Sudan

The Houthi crisis compounds the existing crises in Somalia and Sudan.

The Houthis and Somali terror group al-Shabaab have exchanged weapons, drone technology and training in exchange for facilitating piracy off the coast of Somalia. This happens while an African Union mission in Somalia is trying to keep al-Shabaab under control.

As a result, the number of piracy incidents off Somalia’s coast jumped to a 10-year high in 2026. Somalia approved an anti-piracy bill in September 2026, aimed at preventing maritime abductions.

In Sudan, Iranian support has reached parts of the Sudanese Armed Forces. The army is battling the United Arab Emirates-backed Rapid Support Forces.

By mid-2024, the Houthis had reportedly begun helping Iran supply weapons to the Sudanese army. The US Treasury has sanctioned key Sudanese figures over these ties to Iran.

The implication is uncomfortable: the Red Sea’s African shore is not only exposed to the Houthis, it has begun to serve them.

Competition for political control

The current geopolitical shifts in the Red Sea predate the Houthi offensive.

In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum with the breakaway region of Somaliland for access to its Red Sea coast and a naval base. This was in exchange for a path towards recognition.

Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt opposed the deal. Within a year, they had established a joint security mechanism.

Regional security cooperation has since accelerated. In July 2026, Saudi Arabia hosted talks at which 14 countries – including Egypt, Djibouti, Sudan and Somalia – established the Multinational Maritime Defence Alliance.

The UAE – following clashes with Saudi-backed forces in Yemen in December 2025 – and landlocked Ethiopia are excluded.
 
At the same time, a competing alignment involving the UAE, Israel and Ethiopia has emerged, strengthened by Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in December 2025. On the other side are Somalia, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Iran has also sought a military foothold along the Red Sea corridor, including in Sudan. Eritrea, meanwhile, is using its strategic coastline to strengthen its regional position and counterbalance Ethiopia.

The result is a growing contest for influence in which Middle Eastern powers are making greater use of Africa’s strategic position.

What’s to be done

No single African state can protect the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, but governments can minimise some consequences by diversifying port access and inland trade routes. A more direct lever is improving maritime security capacity at the regional level.

In August 2026, state signatories to the Djibouti Code of Conduct and its expanded Jeddah Amendment committed to forming a combined task force to combat piracy.

The success of this initiative will rely on the ability of governments to provide the ships, intelligence, personnel and legal frameworks necessary to make this a functional security mechanism.

African states are not yet setting the broader strategic agenda, but their control of chokepoints increases their diplomatic leverage. The challenge is to use that leverage without becoming proxies in a wider Middle Eastern confrontation.
 

Burak Sakir Seker is Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University

This article appears courtesy of The Conversation and may be found in its original form here. 

 

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Locked in Arctic ice, the floating lab studying climate and wildlife

A floating laboratory has begun drifting through Arctic sea ice on a mission set to last until late 2027, carrying scientists into one of the most isolated places on Earth. Built in France, the Tara Polar Station is carrying a crew of 12 to study biodiversity and the effects of climate change, as well as a dog to alert them to polar bears – and no one knows exactly where the ice will take them.


Issued on: 18/09/2026 - RFI

The Tara Polar Station during testing in Finland in January 2026, ahead of its first Arctic expedition and year-long drift through the sea ice. © Tara Ocean Foundation

Named Tara Polaris I, the mission will carry the igloo-shaped station through the central Arctic Ocean, where it is now drifting with the sea ice.

Part boat, part research station, the Tara Polar Station was built in Cherbourg and set out from its home port of Lorient on 19 July on its first expedition to the North Pole. It is the second vessel operated by the private Tara Ocean Foundation.

Its journey north took it first to Rotterdam in the Netherlands to take on HVO fuel, a hydrotreated vegetable oil dubbed "renewable diesel", before continuing to Tromso and Kirkenes in Norway on its way towards the transpolar current, which carries sea ice across the Arctic Ocean.

The vessel then travelled along the Northeast Passage, a sea route along Russia's Arctic coast that gradually opens up during summer. In early September, it met Chinese icebreaker Xuelong 2, which cleared a path through the final few dozen kilometres.

The Tara Polar Station then became trapped in the ice and began drifting with it. At last report, those aboard were in the same time zone as Japan.



Life in a floating igloo

The first crew of 12 – eight men and four women – will live together on the ice until replacements arrive by plane in April. Their Arctic winter will include five months of polar night, while the mission as a whole is expected to last between 400 and 500 days.

Life aboard will be a closed world, Romain Troublé, director-general of the Tara Ocean Foundation, told RFI.

“Each of them can retreat to their cabin, to be isolated within the isolation. I think it's important to have a little private space,” Troublé said.

The Tara Polar Station can comfortably accommodate almost 20 people inside its 26-metre oval hull, which is 20 millimetres thick and designed to rise under pressure from the sea ice.

The vessel has a raised wheelhouse and can travel at 15 kilometres an hour, or eight knots, but is now drifting with its engines switched off.

A Finnish Lapphund named Orkki is also part of life on board, with the job of raising the alarm if polar bears approach.

“We have a captain, a first mate, a chief engineer, a cook, a doctor and an onboard correspondent,” Troublé added.

“The other six are engineers and scientists – specialists in ice, biology and genomics – who will work for all the laboratories involved in the project, a bit like on the International Space Station.”


The Tara Polar Station during winter testing in Finland on 10 January 2026, ahead of its first expedition into the central Arctic Ocean. © Tara Ocean Foundation


A touch of Jules Verne

Scientists aboard the Tara Polar Station are trying to understand what lives in the central Arctic Ocean and how climate change is affecting it. The region is warming three to four times faster than the rest of the planet.

Leading the scientific team is Canadian polar oceanographer Marcel Babin, a former research director with France's National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) at the Takuvik International Research Laboratory.

Takuvik is jointly overseen by the CNRS, Laval University in Quebec and Sorbonne University, while around 30 research centres from 12 countries are involved in the expedition.

Much of what the scientists have come to study lies directly beneath their feet. A central well runs through the lower, wet part of the station's hull, giving them direct access to the water beneath the sea ice and allowing them to observe species there.

The project has a touch of Jules Verne. The station was designed specifically for this kind of research, and this is the first time it has been placed in the ice for an entire winter.

French European Space Agency astronaut Thomas Pesquet is a patron and inaugurated the station alongside French fashion designer Agnès b, a founder of the Tara Ocean Foundation.

Pesquet would have happily joined the expedition himself, Troublé said.

“There are similarities with space. This experience of doing science remotely is interesting for us. A lot of what the European Space Agency does is important to us,” Troublé said.

The Tara Polaris I mission also coincides with the 20th anniversary of the Tara Arctic expedition, when a schooner spent 507 days drifting through Arctic sea ice between September 2006 and January 2008.



Ready for surprises

For all the planning that has gone into the expedition, once the Tara Polar Station is locked in the ice, its crew will have to deal with whatever the Arctic throws at them.

“We're ready for anything, but not everything we've planned for will happen, and anything we haven't planned for can happen,” Troublé said. “It's a way of thinking. You have to take surprises as they come.”

The hull itself is solid and the team is well prepared. Troublé is more concerned about the station's weak point – its rudder.

“The crew has just locked it in place, and it wasn't easy,” he said. “It's the part of the boat that will need their attention when the ice moves.”

But the greater worry is not necessarily the ice or the vessel. It is what Troublé called “the plain, stupid accident of everyday domestic life”.

The risks are the same as the crew face anywhere else, he explained, “except that out there, it's more complicated to go and rescue them”.

The expedition is also intended to look beyond this one journey.

Tara Ocean and its research partners want to document the North Pole and assess the health of the central Arctic Ocean, while Troublé hopes the foundation can eventually return to the sea ice every two years over the next two decades.



Into the polar night


Polar night will begin in the coming weeks, leaving the Tara Polar Station to continue its drift through five months of Arctic darkness.

During the first months of next year, it is expected to move closer to the centre of the Arctic Ocean and the North Pole before eventually drifting back towards northern Europe, somewhere around Greenland, Svalbard or Iceland.

Along the way, researchers hope to learn more about Arctic biodiversity, species found only in the region and the processes taking place in the sea ice. They also want to understand what its disappearance could mean for fisheries and other processes important to people further south.

The findings could ultimately reach far beyond the expedition itself. Protecting the Arctic and deciding how it should be governed are also part of the project, including through the Arctic Council forum, with Troublé hoping its scientific data can help inform future political decisions on protecting polar regions.

But for all the research plans, there is one thing no one aboard can know: exactly where or when the ice will release the station.

“We don't know – it's a journey,” Troublé said. “We've put the boat in the ice, and we'll see where it comes out of the ice, and when.”

That uncertainty offers “a certain poetry in today's world, where everything is planned”.

This article was adapted from the original version in French by Igor Gauquelin.

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

 

The Liner’s Dilemma: Schedule Integrity vs. Contractual Flexibility

Suez Canal
Press handout image courtesy SCA

Published Sep 14, 2026 4:58 PM by Gary English



Liner shipping sells predictability. Published schedules, fixed rotations, guaranteed port calls—these are the commercial promises that drive shipper decisions. When chokepoint disruptions force carriers to reroute entire service strings, those promises collide with operational reality. The contract is supposed to resolve that collision. Too often, it does not.

In a previous article, “When Geography Breaks the Contract,” we examined how chokepoint disruptions—from the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz to the Panama Canal—expose fundamental gaps in shipping contracts built on the assumption of geographic stability. That analysis applied broadly across the logistics chain. This article narrows the lens to liner shipping, where the consequences of rerouting are both more acute and more structurally complex.

Liner services are network businesses. A single vessel does not operate in isolation. It runs a fixed rotation—a published sequence of port calls repeated on a cycle. When a chokepoint disruption forces rerouting, the impact is not confined to a single voyage. It cascades across an entire service string, affecting every subsequent port call, every transshipment connection, and every shipper whose cargo is loaded anywhere on that rotation.

This creates a tension that sits at the heart of liner operations. Carriers need the flexibility to manage their networks in real time—to omit ports, blank sailings, and adjust rotations to preserve the broader schedule. Shippers need predictability—they selected this carrier, on this service, because the published transit time and port sequence matched their supply chain requirements.

The question is whether the contractual framework governing liner shipping adequately addresses this tension. In most cases, it does not.

The Schedule as a Commercial Promise

In liner shipping, the schedule is the product. Shippers do not typically charter a vessel. They buy space on a service. The decision to book with Carrier A instead of Carrier B is driven by transit time, port coverage, frequency, and connection reliability. All of these derive from the published schedule.

Service contracts—the volume commitments that govern most liner cargo—reference specific trade lanes and services. Bills of lading identify the vessel and the intended routing. Marketing materials advertise cut-off times, estimated arrival dates, and transshipment options. The entire commercial relationship is built around schedule integrity.

But how binding is the schedule? In almost every case, the answer is: far less binding than shippers assume.

Most bills of lading contain broad liberty clauses granting the carrier discretion to deviate from the advertised route, call at additional ports, omit scheduled ports, transfer cargo to other vessels, and adjust arrival times—all without liability. Service contracts typically include similar provisions, reserving the carrier’s right to modify schedules, substitute vessels, or alter rotations.

The gap between commercial expectation and contractual reality is significant. Shippers plan supply chains, commit warehouse capacity, and schedule production around published transit times. Carriers reserve the right to change those transit times with limited notice and no obligation to compensate. This disconnect is manageable in normal times. It becomes a serious problem when disruption hits.

When Rerouting Breaks the Rotation

A chokepoint disruption does not simply delay a vessel. It restructures the entire service rotation.

Consider a typical Asia–Europe service transiting the Suez Canal. When Red Sea security conditions forced carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, the round-voyage time increased by roughly two weeks. That two-week extension did not simply push one arrival date back. It created a chain reaction:

Vessels arrived late at every subsequent port on the rotation;

Transshipment connections were missed, stranding feeder cargo at hub ports;

Berthing windows at congested terminals were lost, compounding delays;

Return legs were delayed, pushing back the next round-voyage departure.

To manage these cascading effects, carriers deploy a standard set of recovery tools. They blank sailings—canceling entire port calls on a rotation to claw back schedule time. They omit individual ports, forcing shippers to accept cargo delivery at a different port or wait for the next sailing. They cut and run—departing a port on time even if loading or discharge operations are incomplete.

Each of these decisions is operationally rational. From the carrier’s perspective, preserving network integrity for the next rotation is more important than completing every task on the current one. But each decision also imposes costs on shippers who expected their cargo to be loaded, discharged, or transshipped at a specific port on a specific date.

The result is a fundamental misalignment of priorities. The carrier optimizes the network. The shipper needs its cargo.

Contractual Framework: Who Decides and Who Pays

The legal architecture governing liner services distributes authority and risk across several interlocking instruments: the bill of lading, the service contract, the carrier’s tariff, and applicable mandatory law. When disruption occurs, the interaction among these instruments determines who controls the operational response and who absorbs the resulting costs.

Liberty and Deviation Clauses

Bills of lading in liner trades almost universally include liberty clauses authorizing the carrier to deviate from the contracted route, proceed by any route, call at any port, and discharge cargo at a port other than the named destination. These clauses are drafted broadly. Under most common-law jurisdictions, they provide substantial protection to carriers—provided the deviation is reasonable and within the scope of the clause.

The difficulty lies in the boundaries. At what point does a deviation become so extensive that it exceeds the scope of the liberty clause? If a carrier reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope and then omits the discharge port entirely, delivering cargo to an alternative port hundreds of miles away, is that within the contemplation of a standard liberty clause? Courts have not provided definitive answers for modern rerouting scenarios at this scale.

Service Contract Terms

Service contracts between liners and volume shippers typically address schedule modifications, but often in general terms. They may reserve the carrier’s right to modify services, substitute vessels, alter port rotations, and adjust transit times. What they rarely specify is the threshold at which these modifications require notice, consultation, or compensation.

In a prolonged disruption—where rerouting persists for weeks or months—the cumulative effect of schedule modifications can fundamentally alter the service the shipper contracted for. A shipper that booked a 30-day Asia–Europe transit is now receiving a 42-day transit with a different port sequence and unreliable connection times. At some point, this is no longer a modification. It is a different service.

Force Majeure and Commercial Impracticability

As discussed in the predecessor article, force majeure provisions are often poorly suited to modern chokepoint disruptions. The carrier can still perform—it can deliver the cargo—but at significantly greater cost and with substantially longer transit times. This is commercial impracticability, not impossibility. Whether existing force majeure clauses cover this depends on their drafting, and many do not address the gray zone between full performance and full excuse.

For liner carriers, the force majeure analysis is further complicated by the network dimension. The disruption does not simply make one voyage impracticable. It makes the entire rotation impracticable in its published form. The carrier’s response—blanking sailings, omitting ports, restructuring the rotation—is a commercial decision as much as an operational one. Whether that decision qualifies as force majeure mitigation or as a unilateral contract modification is a question most service contracts do not answer.

Cost Allocation

Rerouting generates significant incremental costs: additional bunker consumption, war risk insurance premiums, congestion surcharges, equipment repositioning costs, and extended crew and vessel operating expenses. Carriers typically seek to pass these costs to shippers through surcharge mechanisms—emergency bunker adjustments, war risk surcharges, and peak season supplements.

The enforceability of these surcharges depends on the contractual framework. Service contracts may cap surcharges, require notice periods, or tie adjustments to specific index benchmarks. Tariff-based surcharges may be subject to regulatory requirements depending on the trade. In many cases, the contractual basis for surcharge recovery is less clear than carriers assume, particularly when surcharges are imposed mid-contract in response to conditions that did not exist at the time of contracting.

The Shipper’s Perspective

Cargo interests face real and measurable consequences when liner schedules collapse. Shippers plan their supply chains around published transit times. They commit to downstream delivery windows. They schedule production, warehouse capacity, and retail distribution based on expected cargo arrival dates.

When rerouting extends transit times by two weeks and destabilizes connection reliability, shippers face:

Missed delivery windows and associated penalties under sale contracts;

Inventory shortages that disrupt production schedules;

Cargo stranded at transshipment hubs, subject to storage charges and further delays;

Delivery to ports they did not choose, requiring additional inland transport at their expense;

Increased working capital requirements as goods spend additional weeks in transit.

Under most existing contractual frameworks, shippers have limited recourse. Liberty clauses protect the carrier’s rerouting decision. Service contracts limit liability for delay. Bills of lading cap recoverable damages. The shipper absorbs the supply chain disruption while paying surcharges to cover the carrier’s increased costs.

This is not a sustainable allocation of risk—particularly when disruptions persist for extended periods. Shippers should be pressing for contractual terms that provide meaningful notice of schedule changes, define the scope of permissible modification, establish caps on transit time extensions, and create cost-sharing mechanisms for prolonged disruptions rather than one-sided surcharge regimes.

The Liner’s Perspective

Carriers face an equally difficult position. A liner service is a network, and network management requires centralized decision-making. When a chokepoint disruption adds two weeks to a rotation, the carrier cannot consult with every shipper on every affected sailing before deciding whether to blank a call or omit a port. The operational window for these decisions is measured in hours, not days.

Liner carriers also face a collective action problem. A decision that benefits the network—blanking a sailing to restore schedule integrity—hurts the individual shippers whose cargo was booked on that sailing. But failing to make that decision hurts all shippers on all subsequent sailings as delays compound across the rotation.

On costs, carriers face real incremental expenses that they did not anticipate when service contracts were priced. A Cape of Good Hope rerouting on an Asia–Europe string can add hundreds of thousands of dollars in bunker costs per round voyage. War risk premiums spike. Port congestion at alternative routes increases terminal handling costs. If carriers cannot recover these costs, the service becomes uneconomic—and the consequence is service withdrawal, which benefits no one.

Carriers need contractual frameworks that recognize operational reality: unilateral authority to make time-sensitive network decisions, transparent cost-recovery mechanisms, and protection from liability for schedule adjustments that are operationally necessary to preserve the broader service.

Practical Recommendations

The tension between schedule integrity and operational flexibility will not resolve itself. Both liners and shippers need to address it explicitly in their contractual arrangements. The following recommendations apply to service contracts, but should also inform the drafting of bills of lading and tariff terms.

Define Schedule Flexibility Transparently

Service contracts should specify the scope of permissible schedule modifications. Rather than blanket reservations of the right to modify services, contracts should define thresholds—for example, transit time extensions beyond a stated number of days, or port omissions exceeding a defined frequency—that trigger enhanced obligations such as notice, consultation, or alternative service options.

Establish Notification and Consultation Obligations

Carriers should commit to meaningful notification when disruption-driven schedule changes affect booked cargo. This does not mean seeking shipper consent for every operational decision. It means providing timely notice of material changes—blank sailings, port omissions, extended transit times—so that shippers can adjust their downstream logistics.

Structure Cost-Sharing for Prolonged Disruptions

Surcharge mechanisms should be calibrated to the nature and duration of the disruption. Short-term surcharges for acute events are commercially accepted. But when rerouting persists for months, the cost framework should evolve—moving from unilateral surcharges to negotiated adjustments that reflect both the carrier’s incremental costs and the shipper’s diminished service value.

Address Transshipment and Connection Risk

Transshipment cargo is uniquely vulnerable to schedule disruption. Service contracts should address what happens when a transshipment connection is missed: who bears the cost of storage, rebooking, and additional transit time? Current practice generally places this risk on the shipper by operation of the bill of lading terms. A more balanced allocation would define carrier obligations for connection reliability and cap the shipper’s exposure when disruptions are carrier-driven.

Align Service Contract and Bill of Lading Terms

In liner shipping, the service contract and the bill of lading often contain overlapping but inconsistent provisions regarding schedule modification, deviation, and liability for delay. This creates confusion about which terms govern when disruption occurs. Parties should ensure that service contract protections are not undermined by broader liberty or limitation provisions in the bill of lading.

Conclusion

The predecessor article to this piece observed that contracts governing global shipping were built on an assumption of geographic stability—and that assumption is increasingly wrong. For liner shipping, the stakes are higher. The entire business model is built on network optimization, schedule reliability, and the commercial promise that cargo will move on a predictable rotation.

When geography shifts—when the Suez Canal becomes unsafe, when the Strait of Hormuz becomes contested, when the Panama Canal runs short of water—the liner’s network does not simply slow down. It restructures. And when it restructures, the contract must tell both parties what happens to the schedule, who makes the decisions, and who pays the incremental costs.

Right now, most contracts do not do that clearly enough. Liberty clauses are too broad. Service contract schedule provisions are too vague. Cost-allocation mechanisms are too one-sided. The result is commercial friction, disputed surcharges, and damaged relationships between carriers and their customers.

The liner’s dilemma—schedule integrity versus contractual flexibility—is not a problem that can be solved by broader force majeure clauses or more aggressive liberty provisions. It requires a more honest contractual framework: one that acknowledges the operational realities carriers face, respects the supply chain commitments shippers have made, and allocates disruption risk transparently between the two.

The disruptions are not going away. The contracts need to catch up.

Moore & Van Allen PLLC attorney Gary English, a former U.S. Navy Surface Warfare Officer, focuses his practice on admiralty, maritime, and cross-border commercial matters. He represents global clients in all facades of international shipping and the international multi-modal transportation sectors. In addition to his 20 years with the Navy, he served for a decade as an in-house maritime attorney for Maersk Line, Limited.

This article is the second in a series examining how maritime chokepoint disruptions expose gaps in the contractual frameworks governing global shipping. The first article, “When Geography Breaks the Contract: Chokepoints, Conflict, and the Collapse of Assumptions,” was published in The Maritime Executive.

 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.