Showing posts sorted by date for query MYANMAR. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query MYANMAR. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Drawing The Line: India And Myanmar’s Unfinished Border – Analysis


Myanmar (Burma) on the left and India on the right bank of Tio River. Rihkhawdar is the busy trading broader town on the Chin State of Burma side and Zokhawdar on Mizoram State of India side. Photo Credit: Ericwinny, Wikipedia Commons


September 25, 2026
Observer Research Foundation
By Sreeparna Banerjee


Key Takeaways:

The piece frames a 2 Sept. 2026 Manipur home-minister update—about 55 km of the state’s 398-km Myanmar border fenced, rest aimed at 2028—plus a 26 May 2026 document (The Diplomat, July) on a possible ~1.4 sq mi / 3.5 sq km exchange between pillars 65–68 (Chandel / Kabaw Valley). MEA on 4 Aug. said some sectors remain unsettled and talks continue; it did not confirm a swap.

History: colonial Pemberton Line after Yandabo (1826) and 1834 Kabaw restoration; 1967 India–Myanmar agreement; ~1,472 of 1,643 km pillar-marked, ~171 km still open. After Myanmar’s 2021 coup, New Delhi treats an undemarcated line as a barrier to fencing, patrols, and crime control. FMR (1968/2018, 16 km) was suspended then ended (MHA, 8 Feb. 2024); Dec. 2024 protocol: 10 km with biometric border passes.

A swap, if ever agreed, is compared to the 2015 India–Bangladesh LBA and Berubari (1960): surveys, a treaty, Article 368 amendment, then pillars, records, and residents’ rights. Civil-society worries over villages and farmland.


The India-Myanmar border is back in the spotlight, not because the boundary itself is new, but because questions over how it should be demarcated are once again attracting attention. On 2 September 2026, Manipur’s home minister stated that, of the state’s 398-km border with Myanmar, around 55 km has been fenced, with the entire stretch targeted for completion by 2028.

Meanwhile, a reported government document dated 26 May 2026, cited by The Diplomat in July, has fuelled speculation over a possible territorial exchange. The document refers to the unresolved stretch between Boundary Pillars 65 and 68 in Manipur’s Chandel district and reportedly proposes exchanging around 1.4 square miles (3.5 sq km) of territory with adjoining Myanmar’s Kabaw Valley in the Sagaing Region. The reported proposal has not been confirmed as a decision. On 4 August, a Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson acknowledged that “there are certain areas on the border which are yet to be settled” and that “discussions on those sectors are ongoing,” but stopped short of confirming any territorial adjustment.


The issue cannot be understood without examining how the boundary came into existence. The 1,643-km frontier is largely an inheritance of the colonial era, shaped by the Treaty of Yandabo (1826) and subsequent boundary arrangements. In 1834, the British restored the Kabaw Valley to the Kingdom of Burma and tasked Major F.J. Grant and Captain Robert Boileau Pemberton with defining the Manipur-Burma boundary, giving rise to what became known as the Pemberton Line. These successive boundary-making exercises did not always correspond with pre-existing patterns of social, cultural, and economic interaction, and communities such as the Nagas, Kukis, and Mizos subsequently found themselves living on either side of an international frontier.

After independence, India and Burma sought to regularise the inherited boundary through the 1967 India-Myanmar Boundary Agreement, which established the modern alignment and created a Joint Boundary Commission for its physical demarcation. Around 1,472 km has since been demarcated through boundary pillars, leaving approximately 171 km unresolved. The present debate, therefore, is not about reopening the entire frontier, but about addressing the specific pockets where the boundary has yet to be conclusively demarcated on the ground.

A New Urgency for Demarcation

The renewed push for demarcation needs to be understood against a much wider transformation in India’s approach to its eastern border with Myanmar. For decades, the frontier was managed as a relatively porous border in which security considerations coexisted with considerable cross-border social and economic interaction. The situation has changed considerably since the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021. The intensification of conflict in Myanmar, the movement of armed groups and displaced nationals, and the expansion of transnational criminal networks have heightened India’s concerns about maintaining effective control over the frontier.

Border infrastructure has consequently become a central component of India’s security policy. India has been pursuing fencing in identified stretches of the 1,643-km boundary, alongside efforts to strengthen patrolling and surveillance. An unresolved boundary line creates an obvious practical difficulty: where stretches remain undemarcated, the construction and alignment of permanent border infrastructure becomes more complex. Demarcation is therefore not simply a cartographic exercise; it is increasingly central to the effective planning and implementation of a comprehensive border-management system.

The changing security environment also includes insurgency, narcotics trafficking, arms smuggling, and other forms of transnational crime. The India-Myanmar frontier connects India’s Northeast with Myanmar’s conflict-affected areas and, further east, the wider Golden Triangle. Undemarcated stretches can complicate surveillance and coordination between the two sides. For New Delhi, clearly established boundary coordinates can strengthen the legal and administrative basis for fencing, patrolling, and monitoring movement.

The FMR Question

The debate over demarcation is closely connected to India’s decision to end the Free Movement Regime (FMR). The FMR, which has existed since 1968 and was formalised in 2018, was designed to recognise the distinctive social and ethnic character of the India-Myanmar border, where communities on either side of the international boundary have longstanding familial, cultural, and economic ties. Under the earlier arrangement, eligible residents living close to the border could cross up to 16 km into each other’s territory without following normal visa or passport procedures, subject to specified conditions.

This arrangement reflected a reality the colonial boundary had never erased. Communities such as the Nagas, Kukis, and Mizos have long maintained social, familial, and economic ties across what later became an international border. The border, then, has never been merely a line separating two sovereign states; for many communities, it has also been a shared space of livelihood, education, healthcare, kinship, and marriage.

Security concerns over unrestricted movement have gained greater prominence in New Delhi’s approach to border management in recent years. The Manipur border with Myanmar has faced tighter movement restrictions since 2022, when the FMR was suspended amid Myanmar’s deteriorating security situation and concerns over a growing influx of Myanmar nationals. The porous border has also remained a major route for narcotics trafficking, compounding New Delhi’s border-security concerns.

On 8 February 2024, the Ministry of Home Affairs announced its decision to scrap the FMR, citing internal security and the need to preserve the demographic structure of India’s northeastern states bordering Myanmar. The MHA also recommended its immediate suspension while the Ministry of External Affairs undertook the formal process of ending the arrangement. However, in view of the familial ties on either side of the border, the Centre introduced a stricter replacement protocol in December 2024, allowing movement within 10 km with biometric screening through border passes issued to residents at designated crossing points.

Fencing the border has consequently become a key component of New Delhi’s border-management approach. The shift towards a more regulated movement regime marks a significant departure in India’s handling of a historically porous frontier, and makes physical demarcation considerably more consequential: greater regulation of movement and stronger physical border controls increase the need for clarity and precision in the boundary’s alignment.

At the same time, eliminating the FMR cannot by itself resolve the socio-economic consequences of a hardened border. Communities that have traditionally crossed the frontier for agriculture, trade, religious activities, medical treatment, or family reasons could face higher costs and administrative barriers. A successful border-management policy will therefore have to reconcile security requirements with the legitimate interests of border communities.

Is a Land Swap on the Table?

The possibility of a territorial exchange has attracted particular attention because of the proposed arrangement in the Molcham sector. Reports suggest that a territorial adjustment involving approximately 1.4 square miles has been discussed in connection with the disputed stretch between Boundary Pillars 65 and 68.

It is important, however, to distinguish between a proposal under examination and an agreed territorial settlement. The available reporting indicates that the proposal is being considered as a means of resolving a difficult section of the boundary; it does not establish that India has agreed to any transfer of territory, nor does it suggest that a final land swap has received the necessary governmental approvals.

The rationale for considering an exchange is essentially practical. If the existing boundary alignment produces an awkward or contested configuration on the ground, a mutually negotiated adjustment could, in theory, establish a clearer and more manageable boundary. Any such adjustment would, however, carry wider legal and administrative implications, and would bear directly on local communities and their customary land-use practices. Civil society organisations have already raised concerns on this front, particularly over the potential impact on villages, agricultural land, and established land-use patterns.

What Would a Territorial Swap Require?


India already has a precedent for negotiated territorial adjustment in the 2015 India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement (LBA), under which the two countries exchanged enclaves and settled outstanding boundary issues. Its implementation required the Constitution (100th Amendment) Act, 2015, demonstrating that any transfer of sovereign territory involves more than a bilateral administrative decision.

A similar India-Myanmar arrangement would likely require joint surveys and precise demarcation to establish the territory involved, followed by a formal bilateral agreement defining the revised boundary, boundary pillars, and implementation arrangements. Given the principles set out in the Berubari judgment (1960), any proposal to transfer Indian territory would need to proceed through Article 368, the constitutional amendment procedure, rather than through ordinary legislative or executive action.

The final stage would involve ground-level implementation: relocating or installing boundary pillars, updating maps and land records, and determining the status of affected residents, including their residence, land and property rights, documentation, and, where applicable, compensation or rehabilitation.

The process would ultimately have to balance strategic border management with the rights and livelihoods of communities living along the frontier. The broader challenge, therefore, is to clarify and secure the boundary while accounting for the social and economic interests of communities that have long lived across it.


About the author: Sreeparna Banerjee is an Associate Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme.

Source: This article was published by Observer Research Foundation

About Observer Research Foundation
ORF was established on 5 September 1990 as a private, not for profit, ’think tank’ to influence public policy formulation. The Foundation brought together, for the first time, leading Indian economists and policymakers to present An Agenda for Economic Reforms in India. The idea was to help develop a consensus in favour of economic reforms.
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Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Ukraine’s Military Expertise Is Going Abroad, Along With Questions About Accountability – OpEd


Ukrainian soldiers. Photo Credit: General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces


September 21, 2026

By Alan Callow

Key Takeaways:

Unproven at home. Texty alleged abuse in the 225th Assault Regiment; the commander denied “pits,” admitted one beating. Drapatyi ordered an inspection. Babel alleged mistreatment in the 425th “Skelya”; SBI and the ombudsman opened files. No verdicts yet.

Know-how abroad. RFI: 200-plus Ukrainians alleged training Libyan forces on drones. India arrested six Ukrainians and one American; NIA alleges Myanmar drone training and a civilian-aircraft strike. No public link to those units.

Who vets the trainers? Author: export of EW and drone skills needs a chain of command and a check on records—until then, allegations stay allegations.


Investigations into alleged abuses within Ukrainian assault units are raising questions about how servicemen accused of serious misconduct are vetted before being sent abroad to train foreign armed groups.

After more than four years of war, Ukraine has accumulated extensive battlefield experience — from drone warfare and electronic warfare to small-unit operations and rapid tactical adaptation. That expertise is increasingly attracting international interest.

But as Ukrainian military knowledge travels abroad, questions are also emerging over who is being entrusted with passing it on.

Ukrainian media have published investigations documenting allegations of beatings, unlawful detention, threats of execution and other forms of violence in at least two prominent assault units. Ukrainian authorities have responded with inspections and investigations into some of the allegations.

At the same time, reports have emerged of Ukrainian military specialists operating abroad.

In April, French public broadcaster RFI, in a report cited by Euronews, reported the presence of more than 200 Ukrainian military specialists in Libya and alleged that Ukrainian personnel were training Libyan forces in the use of drones. Ukraine and the Libyan government did not respond to RFI’s requests for comment, according to the report.

In Myanmar, meanwhile, Indian investigators have alleged that six Ukrainian nationals and one U.S. citizen arrested in India were linked to training involving drone warfare, drone assembly, operations and jamming technology for ethnic armed groups in Myanmar. The Indian National Investigation Agency later made further allegations concerning the group’s activities.

There is no evidence that every Ukrainian instructor operating abroad has been involved in wrongdoing. Nor is there publicly available evidence establishing that the Ukrainians detained in India belonged to any of the Ukrainian units currently under investigation.

But the reports raise a broader question: how thoroughly are personnel vetted before they are entrusted with sensitiv
e military technologies and combat experience for use by foreign armed forces?

The 225th Separate Assault Regiment

One of the most detailed investigations concerns Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Regiment.

On July 30, Ukrainian investigative outlet Texty published an investigation based on six months of reporting and interviews with dozens of current and former servicemen, personnel from attached units and relatives of missing soldiers. The investigation alleged beatings, improvised detention sites known as “pits”, threats of execution and other forms of violence.

According to Texty, at least six independent sources described the alleged use of what they called a “tree of truth”, where soldiers were allegedly tied to trees and beaten. The investigation also reported accounts of soldiers being held under guard between combat missions and published a photograph of an unidentified serviceman apparently handcuffed to a tree.

The regiment’s commander, Oleh Shyriaiev, denied the existence of “pits” and blocking detachments at the regiment’s base. He nevertheless acknowledged that at least one case of beating had occurred and said the servicemen involved had been removed from their positions and referred to the Military Law Enforcement Service.

On Aug. 4, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi ordered the Military Law Enforcement Service to inspect the regiment following the investigation. The Armed Forces said allegations of unlawful orders and violence would be examined and that those responsible would be held accountable if the allegations were confirmed.

The allegations remain allegations unless established through an official investigation or court proceedings.

The 425th Separate Assault Regiment “Skelya”

Similar questions have emerged around the 425th Separate Assault Regiment “Skelya”.

In June, Ukrainian publication Babel published an investigation based on testimony from more than 30 people, including servicemen and relatives. It reported allegations of beatings and mistreatment at training facilities and examined a series of deaths among personnel undergoing training. One former serviceman interviewed by Babel described severe injuries that he said he sustained after escaping from the regiment.

The allegations prompted scrutiny from Ukrainian authorities, including a pre-trial investigation by the State Bureau of Investigation and a review by the Ukrainian ombudsman’s office, according to the reporting.

These cases make the question of how servicemen are selected for sensitive overseas missions more significant.

Ukraine Becomes an Exporter of Military Expertise


Ukraine is no longer only a recipient of foreign military assistance and expertise. The war has turned it into a source of military knowledge.

Ukrainian forces have accumulated extensive experience in the use of drones, electronic warfare and battlefield adaptation under conditions of intensive conflict. Tactics can evolve directly on the battlefield, and new techniques can be introduced far more rapidly than under peacetime conditions.

Reports about Ukrainian specialists operating in Libya and the allegations concerning Ukrainians detained in India suggest that this expertise may now be travelling well beyond Ukraine’s own battlefield.

That raises several questions.

Who selects these specialists? Are they active-duty servicemen? Are their backgrounds and service records vetted? Are commanders or foreign partners aware of allegations against them? And, when they operate outside Ukraine, are they subject to a clear military chain of command and oversight?

There is also a more fundamental question: who is accountable if a foreign armed group is trained by a person who later faces serious allegations of unlawful violence?


What Ukrainian Instructors Could Mean for Myanmar

The Myanmar case is particularly significant because of the role drones now play in the country’s fragmented conflict.

In March, Indian authorities arrested six Ukrainian nationals and one U.S. citizen. Indian investigators alleged that the group had entered Myanmar illegally through India’s northeastern state of Mizoram and had been involved in planned training for ethnic armed groups.

The National Investigation Agency later told a Delhi court that the seven foreigners were allegedly involved in drone-warfare training, including drone operations, assembly and jamming technology. In September, the NIA also alleged that the group was connected to ethnic armed organizations in Myanmar and said it had received information concerning the involvement of Ukrainian and U.S. nationals in a drone attack on a civilian aircraft in Myanmar. These remain allegations made in the course of an investigation.

Myanmar has been the scene of a complex armed conflict involving the military government, ethnic armed organizations and other resistance forces.

Drones have become increasingly important in that conflict. They allow relatively small armed groups to conduct reconnaissance and attacks at comparatively low cost.

Foreign training can therefore have consequences beyond the immediate instruction of individual fighters.

Knowledge of drone assembly, autonomous operation, electronic countermeasures and battlefield targeting can directly expand the capabilities of armed groups.

In Myanmar, that could be particularly consequential. Giving non-state armed organizations access to advanced drone expertise could expand their ability to conduct surveillance, coordinate attacks and strike targets that would previously have required substantially larger or more technologically sophisticated forces.

This does not mean that the presence of Ukrainian instructors is, by itself, a cause of escalation in Myanmar. But transferring modern battlefield expertise and technology in the middle of an ongoing civil war can affect the capabilities of the parties to the conflict and potentially change the character of warfare.

That is why the identity and professional background of foreign instructors matter.

If a person accused of torture or unlawful violence in one conflict is later given an opportunity to train fighters in another, the issue goes beyond individual responsibility. It raises questions about institutional vetting, oversight and accountability.
The Accountability Question

Serious allegations against Ukrainian servicemen require credible and comprehensive investigation. Until such investigations establish the facts, allegations should not be treated as proven.

But unresolved allegations take on additional significance when military personnel move between frontline units and overseas missions involving the training of foreign armed forces.

For Ukraine, exporting military expertise could become an increasingly important element of international cooperation. Experience in drone warfare, electronic warfare and battlefield adaptation is likely to remain in demand.

But military expertise also comes with responsibility for the people who transmit it.

If Ukrainian specialists are sent to countries such as Libya or Myanmar, recipients need confidence that those personnel have undergone appropriate vetting and operate within a clear system of command and oversight.

For Kyiv, the stakes are significant. Unresolved allegations of serious misconduct, combined with the movement of personnel between frontline roles and overseas training missions, could raise questions about Ukraine’s ability to present itself as a responsible military partner.

Myanmar illustrates the potential consequences particularly clearly. Advanced drone expertise provided to armed groups involved in a prolonged civil war could expand their capabilities and contribute to changes in the way the conflict is fought.

The central question, therefore, is not whether Ukraine should share the military expertise it has developed during the war. It is whether that expertise is being exported with adequate safeguards, vetting and accountability mechanisms.



About Alan Callow
Alan Callow was born in Japan, graduated from Western Mindanao State University (Philippines). He is a freelance journalist with experience in writing about the Asia Pacific region.
View all posts by Alan Callow →
‘Modern Day Slavery:’ Myanmar’s Military Swells Ranks Through Corruption And Deceit – Analysis


September 22, 2026
By RFA

Key Takeaways:

An RFA Burmese investigation, citing more than 30 families and defector Maj. Naung Yoe of MDSI, says Myanmar’s junta has filled post-coup manpower gaps since reviving a 2010 conscription law in February 2024 by capturing and selling young men into service—what he calls “modern day slavery.”

Quotas fall hardest on the poor; substitutes sell for about 10–30 million kyat ($2,500–$7,500). Families describe job lures and street abductions, new IDs to fill other townships’ quotas, ransoms that sometimes fail, and cases such as Zin Win Paing, sold then killed fighting the Arakan Army in May 2026.

MDSI estimates more than 130,000 recruits since 2024. The UN IIMM is examining enforced disappearances as possible crimes against humanity; even a USDP MP in Mandalay called the trade trafficking. Junta officials say unlawful summons will be punished; RFA got no reply from the recruitment body or a junta spokesperson.


The Myanmar military junta’s recruitment practices are “modern day slavery,” an expert from the volatile Southeast Asian country told Radio Free Asia. An investigation by RFA Burmese shows that for more than two years, thousands of young men in Myanmar have been captured, sold, and conscripted in ways that rights groups say may be crimes against humanity.

Ever since the military junta seized power in the 2021 coup, it has faced a growing armed resistance and significant personnel shortages. To fill the gap, the military has resorted to a conscription system, based on a 2010 law, that has resulted in mass human trafficking.

RFA interviewed more than 30 families of people they say were trafficked into the military. Their testimonies reveal that trafficking networks operate at the grassroots level—where young people are captured in every possible way and sold to recruiters for millions of kyat (thousands of U.S. dollars). The scheme involves various actors that include the junta’s low-level administrative officials, immigration officers, police and military officers, ex-soldiers and criminals who have links with the authorities according to interviewees.


“This is modern day slavery,” Maj. Naung Yoe, the military affairs official at the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, or MDSI, and a former military officer who defected and joined the anti-coup Civil Disobedience Movement or CDM, told RFA Burmese.

“They are trading people like goods. They are forcibly capturing these people for their own financial gain, treating them like slaves,” he said. “If they refuse to join the army, they are beaten all night.”

The MDSI tracks military recruitment, and said the system provides financial incentives for funneling the country’s youth into active-duty service.

“Once they agree to join, they are held, and then sold to the necessary locations for exorbitant fees,” said Naung Yoe. “We can call this modern human trafficking, a modern slave market.”
Soldiers for sale

The military’s conscription order demands a specific quota of recruits from each village, ward, or township proportional to its population. Findings show that the burden falls disproportionately on the poor. Though technically all men of conscription age – between 18 and 35 – are vulnerable, young men from wealthy families that get the call can pay to make poorer youth serve in their place.


The market price starts at 10 million kyat per person (about $2,500). Those who are healthy and pass the medical examination for military service can fetch up to 30 million kyat ($7,500), according to those who have purchased substitutes.

The people who were interviewed for the RFA Burmese investigation shared details about how the conscription scheme worked.

Ko Kaung, a youth from a suburb of Yangon whose real name is changed here for safety reasons, was working odd jobs to support his family in the volatile post-coup economic situation, a member of his family told RFA.

One day, a friend told him he could get a job loading construction materials for 40,000 kyat (about $10) per day. Ko Kaung accompanied him, hoping to land the job. The friend was actually working with traffickers and Ko Kaung was sold into military recruitment.

“They came to get him, saying there was a job in North Okkalapa township loading construction materials for 40,000 kyat a day,” Ko Kaung’s family member said. “Because there was no other work, he went. We lost contact completely. It was 18 days later that we finally made contact as he joined the military training where he could use a phone. We then learned he had been sold.”

Ko Kaung told his family he was sold to someone in Zayatkwin, Hlegu township in Yangon region; from there he was transported to Kyaing Tong, eastern Shan state bordering the Golden Triangle region, an area at the convergence of the borders of Myanmar, Thailand and Laos that is notorious for human and drug trafficking. It was August 2, 2026 when he could contact the family informing them that he was at military training.


The friend who recruited Ko Kaung allegedly has connections with the military, and currently is stationed at the No. 11 Infantry High-Level Training School, Ko Kaung’s family member said.

The People’s Military Service Law was first introduced and enacted by the previous junta led by Sr. Gen. Than Shwe, on November 4, 2010 in order to address the recruitment shortage in the possible future.

In February 2024, the current junta, led by Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, implemented the law and formed the Central Body for Summoning People’s Military Servants which would oversee all recruitment activities across the country.

Ko Kaung was recruited by an unknown individual recruitment group and transported to a military training camp under the body.

When RFA contacted the central body for the CBSPMS to inquire about Ko Kaung’s disappearance and illegal forced recruitment on August 17, 2026, no one answered.

Ko Kaung is not alone. Many others were also trafficked and conscripted under similar circumstances.

Zin Win Paing was abducted and sold as a new recruit for military service, his family told RFA. He was captured by a group of people as he came back from work to his home while waiting for a bus in South Dagon Township, Yangon, on March 5, 2025.

According to the family, Zin Win Paing was sold for 15 million kyat ($3,800). He was sent to Infantry Battalion 213 in Hlegu Township, Yangon, and subsequently to the front lines. He was killed in battle against the Arakan Army in Kyaukphyu, Rakhine State, on May 18, 2026.

Aung Ko Ko (a pseudonym) from Htantabin Township, Yangon, was also abducted and sold, his family told RFA. Aung Ko Ko was a welder in the Shwe Lin Ban Industrial Zone of Yangon and was captured while returning home on May 3. The family said he was sold for 12 million kyat ($3,000) to serve in the military for the Maubin Township area of Ayeyarwady Region.
Government corruption

Under the conscription law, every jurisdiction has a recruitment quota proportional to its population, but some of the youth were trafficked to fill the quota of nearby jurisdictions. This requires a change in registration and the issuance of a new national ID to count toward the second jurisdiction’s quota.

Such a change would have been impossible without the participation of government officials.

Zin Win Paing, who died in a battle in Rakhine state, is originally from Insein Township, but was sold to serve under South Dagon Township. Similarly, Aung Ko Ko, from Htantabin Township, was sold to serve for Maubin Township, Ayeyarwady Region. Both received new IDs prior to their conscription.


Interviews conducted by RFA with family members and village representatives reveals a belief that government officials of all levels are working together in collusion at every step of the scheme.

A village administrator from Mandalay Region, who wished to remain anonymous for safety reasons, told RFA that military authorities work together with trusted brokers to make the scheme work.

Pro-junta militia groups and others associated with the military “capture suspicious people or criminals and persuade them to join the army. They hand these kids over to the broker. The military (officers) give the order. The (brokers) then give (the captured recruits) to the administrators,” the local administrator told RFA.

“Since they are captives taken by the military-affiliates, they can be bought for 4,000,000 to 5,000,000 kyat (about $1,000 to $1,250). The middlemen handle the talking, the shifting, and the persuading, then they resell them for around 15 million kyat ($4,000)” the local administrator told RFA.

The local administrator admitted that he, too, had sourced recruits from brokers every three months to fill the conscription quota for his village. If the recruit is from a different township, immigration officials immediately issue a new ID card, receiving payments from the brokers for doing so.

While abductions are carried out directly by the military and police, or by junta-appointed administrators and their associates, the end result is always the same: they are forced into military service.

If families want to avoid their loved ones being sold, they sometimes have to pay hundreds of thousands of kyat in ransom to get them back. A family from Sinbaungwe Township, Magway Region, paid 20 million kyat (about $5000) to release their son after he was abducted last month.

“It is heartbreaking to have to buy back our own lives in our own country,” a family member of one of the victims said. “There is no one to rely on. We have no hope for justice from the leaders or the law because they are the ones openly doing this.”

In some cases, even after paying the ransom, the person is not released and is still sent to military training, resulting in the loss of both the person and the money. These incidents are widespread in areas where military control is strong, including Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw.

The money is simply too good for many government officials to resist, a lawyer in Yangon, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told RFA.

“I see this as using the law for business profit. This is not a military matter; it is forced, illegal coercion,” the lawyer said. “It is not part of the military service law. If subordinates are abusing this law, the military leaders should investigate and take severe action.”

RFA contacted Daw Khaing Khaing Soe, spokesperson for the former coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, but there was no response.


In state and local parliaments, questions on incidents of forced disappearance and illegal recruitments have been raised but the resulting discussions are often not highlighted by the junta-controlled media.

Meanwhile, the police often do not act on these cases because military officials are involved, Aung Ko Lin Han—a former deputy police inspector in Yangon who defected to the anti-coup Civil Disobedience Movement after serving until late 2025, told RFA.

“Retired army captains and active-duty military personnel—along with what you might call thugs or, essentially, their henchmen—collude to carry out these acts,” he said. “It is true that victims can be ransomed back. If one has the means, they can secure a release based on what they can afford to pay.”

Aung Ko Ling Han said that there have been cases where the police arrested traffickers.

“But we were unable to take action against those belonging to the active-duty military,” he told RFA.
Swelling the ranks

Since the implementation of the Military Service Law in 2024, thousands of young people across the country have been sent to 28 military training centers each month, So far, 28 batches of trainees have been recruited.

MDSI estimates that the military has recruited more than 130,000 new soldiers since the law went into effect, based on a newly imposed national quota of 5,000 recruits per week that was announced in April. RFA was not able to determine exactly how many of these 130,000-plus young people have been subjected to trafficking.

“Myanmar security forces have carried out abductions or detentions without informing families about where they are or their condition,” the United Nations Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, or IIMM, stated on August 29.

“Their families and loved ones live in uncertainty and anxiety. The Mechanism is investigating reports related to enforced disappearances. Under international law, if enforced disappearances are committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, it may constitute a crime against humanity.”

Concerns about human trafficking have even been raised by politicians who support the military.

In the Mandalay Regional Parliament on August 4, Ko Ko Htwe, a regional member of parliament from the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), criticized these activities, calling them a massive human trafficking ring.

“Since the initial call-up began, levies labeled as ‘military service fees’ have been collected from every household in the neighborhood, leading to financial issues and corruption,” he said. “Furthermore, these collected funds are being used to ‘purchase’ young people for military service—a practice akin to human trafficking. Consequently, young residents of Mandalay and migrant workers from other regions no longer feel safe.”


When questioned about these issues in the Naypyidaw parliament in July, the Deputy Minister of Home Affairs, Maj. Gen. Min Thu, claimed they were acting systematically and that they would punish those acting outside the law.

“On behalf of the Chairman, and based on the coordinated responses from the Ministry of Defence and the Sagaing Region Government, I state that the People’s Military Service Summoning Body is issuing strict instructions at all levels to prevent summons that do not comply with the law, and that effective action will be taken against any activities that exceed the scope of the law and its bylaws,” the deputy minister said.

USDP spokesperson Hla Thein told RFA that it was necessary to take strict action against the perpetrators.

“If the authorities take action, these things will eventually disappear,” he said. “If people file complaints with concrete evidence, as has appeared in the newspapers, and if it is true, they will take action.”

About RFA
Radio Free Asia’s mission is to provide accurate and timely news and information to Asian countries whose governments prohibit access to a free press. Content used with the permission of Radio Free Asia, 2025 M St. NW, Suite 300, Washington DC 20036.
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Hate speech against Rohingya refugees on the rise in Malaysia

Cover image: Cover image: This picture, taken in Kuala Muda on July 26, 206, shows one of the buses reportedly used to send Rohingya refugees back to Kuala Lumpur. © Facebook




Issued on: 11/09/2026 - FRANCE24
From the show



Hostile social media content, disinformation campaigns, and a petition calling for their expulsion: in Malaysia, a wave of hate speech has been targeting Rohingya refugees, a Muslim minority driven out of Myanmar. The rising hostility has already led to the eviction of more than 100 people from a village and forced the temporary closure of schools serving refugee children.

For a long time, Malaysia was considered a safe country for Rohingya Muslims fleeing persecution in predominantly Buddhist Myanmar.

But the situation began to change in 2020, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, with the emergence of hate speech online. Recently, anti-Rohingya rhetoric has taken several forms: disinformation, a petition calling on the Malaysian prime minister to expel them that got more than 400,000 signatures before it was taken down, and the spread of slogans like “Save Malaysia from the Rohingya”.

The FRANCE 24 Observers team spoke with a representative of the NGO Article 19. She preferred to remain anonymous for security reasons:

"The recent wave of hate speech against the Rohingya refugees has been one of the most intense on the volume of it, on the scale of it, and it lasted longer than previous times.

For example, they put out narratives like, 'Oh, these people are flying from Myanmar. They're looking for jobs.' And 'Oh, they are here to take away our land,' and stuff like that.

But they’re not telling the truth, because the thing is they're running away from ongoing genocide 16’22 and the violence against them in Myanmar."

Hostile slogans appeared this summer in the village of Kuala Muda, in the state of Penang, where Rohingya families have lived for years. More than a hundred of them fled the village at the end of July, seeking refuge in the capital, Kuala Lumpur.

Malaysia’s government announced plans in July to send 5,000 of the Rohingya refugees back to Myanmar. Human rights groups warned they could face serious danger, and the government backtracked, saying the refugees would not be deported if they faced persecution.

Read the full story here:
In Malaysia, wave of hate speech threatens Rohingya refugees


Sunday, September 20, 2026

Five Years Of Civil War In Myanmar: A Nation Adrift In Crisis – Analysis


File photo of Arakan Army soldiers in Myanmar. Photo Credit: Arakan Army

September 20, 2026

By Sachin Yadav


Key Takeaways:

Five years after the coup. The Tatmadaw seized power on 1 February 2021; by early 2026 monitors put junta control below 40% of townships. The Arakan Army holds about 70% of Rakhine (14 of 17 townships) and is pushing on Sittwe. Estimates in the piece: more than 100,000 dead.

A vote under fire. Phased elections ran 28 Dec 2025–25 Jan 2026 and were widely called neither free nor fair. Min Aung Hlaing took the presidency in April 2026. Open-source counts: 408 air attacks in the voting window (at least 170 civilians dead); a 22 Jan Bhamo strike said to kill up to 50. Arrests under an election law: 324 men and 80 women. Also cited: paramotor and cluster-munition use.

Economy and aid collapse. About $100 billion in output lost since the coup; World Bank growth ~2% in FY2026/27; inflation 24% then 16%. Poverty estimates: 31% (2024, pre-quake) to ~46% (2025). In 2026: 16.2 million need aid, 3.6 million displaced; March 2025 M7.7 quake killed over 3,600. Amnesty and UN investigators: terror as strategy has failed; they want access and accountability.

On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, seized power in a coup, arresting State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders of the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government. General Min Aung Hlaing justified the takeover by alleging fraud in the November 2020 election, in which the NLD had won a landslide victory. What began as a political power grab quickly triggered mass civil disobedience, as millions of citizens, including doctors, teachers, and civil servants, walked off their jobs in protest.

The military responded with brutal force, gunning down peaceful demonstrators in the streets. As the crackdown intensified, the resistance movement transformed. Ordinary citizens took up arms, forming People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and aligning with a parallel National Unity Government (NUG) in exile. These new fighters joined forces with Myanmar’s long-established ethnic armed organizations, such as the Arakan Army, the Kachin Independence Army, and the Karen National Union, groups that had been resisting central rule for decades. What started as scattered protests had, within a year, hardened into a full-scale, multi-front civil war spanning nearly all of Myanmar’s 14 states and regions.
Five Years On: A Country Fractured

Five years since the coup, Myanmar remains locked in one of the world’s most complex and underreported conflicts. The military’s grip on the country has visibly weakened. By early 2026, credible monitoring organizations estimated that the junta controlled fewer than 40% of Myanmar’s townships, a dramatic collapse from near-total control immediately after the coup. On the other hand, resistance forces have made striking territorial gains. The Arakan Army now controls nearly 70% of Rakhine State, having captured 14 of the state’s 17 townships, and is now pushing to seize the state capital, Sittwe.


Yet military dominance on the map has not translated into peace. According to the estimates, more than 1,00,000 people have lost their lives over the past five years. In an attempt to project legitimacy, the junta organized national elections. These were held in three heavily controlled phases between December 28, 2025, and January 25, 2026, and have been widely dismissed as fraudulent, engineered to secure a military-backed party’s victory. Foreign governments, including Australia, noted that the elections were held amid ongoing violence and repression, without meaningful participation from opposition parties, and did not meet conditions for being free, fair, or inclusive. Following the vote, Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency in April 2026 and has tried to project himself as a leader committed to peace, using state visits to India and China to build some diplomatic legitimacy.

The election period itself was marked by extreme violence rather than calm. Open-source monitoring documented 408 military air attacks during the voting period alone, which killed at least 170 civilians. On January 22, a military airstrike on a populated area in Bhamo Township, Kachin State, reportedly killed up to 50 civilians with no combatants reported present. The junta also used the election to justify a fresh wave of political repression and 324 men and 80 women were arrested under a unilaterally adopted election protection law, including for minor online activity, with one person sentenced to 49 years in prison for posting anti-election material.


Rights groups describe an escalating pattern of attacks on civilians using increasingly indiscriminate methods. In the lead-up to the elections, the junta ramped up airstrikes on schools, hospitals, religious sites and displacement camps, and expanded its use of armed drones, paramotors and gyrocopters, creating new threats to civilians. On October 6, 2025, a military paramotor attack on a Buddhist festival in Sagaing Region killed at least 24 people, including three children, and more than 135 such paramotor attacks have been recorded since December 2024. Myanmar’s military also continues to rely on weapons banned under international law. The country remains one of the four countries in the world that still use internationally prohibited cluster munitions and antipersonnel landmines.
The Economic Collapse

Myanmar’s economy has been devastated by five years of conflict, compounding earlier damage from the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy has lost nearly $100 billion since the coup, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) not expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels for years. Independent trackers put the scale of the contraction even more starkly, estimating an economy contracted by over 9% since 2021, reversing the economic progress of the previous decade.

World Bank data illustrates a country limping along rather than recovering. Myanmar’s nominal GDP for 2026 is projected at roughly $65-75 billion, with growth of around 2 to 4%. That modest rebound masks deep structural weakness. The World Bank notes growth is projected at just 2% for FY2026/27, and describes the economic outlook as remaining subdued. This stands in sharp contrast to the pre-coup era as from 2011 to 2019, Myanmar experienced high economic growth, averaging 6% a year, alongside significant poverty reduction driven by reforms and the lifting of international sanctions


Inflation has eaten away at household purchasing power. Inflation was 24% in FY2025/26 and expected to be 16% in FY2026/27, driven by ongoing supply and demand-side constraints including power outages, labor shortages, and trade and exchange rate restrictions. There has been some recent relief on the currency front, though as food inflation eased to 16.2% and non-food inflation to 20.8%, reflecting a stronger Kyat, stricter food price controls, and improved supply conditions, with the Kyat appreciating by about 15% against the U.S. dollar by January 2026

Energy shortages have crippled productivity nationwide. In January 2025, daily electricity demand of 4,400 megawatts far exceeded daily generation of just 1,701 megawatts, a major constraint on manufacturing and services, worsened by conflict-related and earthquake damage to power infrastructure. Satellite data corroborates the scale of economic contraction as night-time luminosity fell by 15.1% over five months to May 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.

The human cost of this collapse is measured in rising poverty. In 2024, before the earthquake, the poverty rate was estimated at 31% and simulations suggested poverty could rise a further 2.8% points due to the earthquake’s impact. Other estimates put the number of people below the poverty line even higher. Approximately 46% of the population was estimated to be below the national poverty line in 2025 and changes in poverty across states show a strong positive correlation with the intensity of local conflict.

A Deepening Humanitarian Emergency

The human toll of Myanmar’s war is staggering and still growing. In 2026, an estimated 16.2 million people require lifesaving humanitarian assistance, including 4.9 million children. Also nearly 3.6 million people are now internally displaced in Myanmar amid escalating airstrikes, acute food insecurity and worsening humanitarian conditions. Food security has become a critical concern. Nearly one quarter of Myanmar’s population now faces high levels of acute food insecurity, while more than one third are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Nature has compounded the man-made disaster. In March 2025, a devastating magnitude 7.7 earthquake killed over 3,600 people and injured over 5,000. The earthquake caused extensive damage, layering on top of an already dire crisis.

Accountability efforts remain limited even as evidence of atrocities mounts. Investigators, including the head of the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar said that there is evidence that civilians across the country have endured atrocities that may amount to serious international crimes. Rights organizations argue the military’s approach has fundamentally failed on its own terms. Amnesty International has described the past five years as illustrating the Myanmar military’s failed strategy of asserting control by killing and terrorizing civilians.


Conclusion


Five years after a single coup shattered a fragile democratic experiment, Myanmar stands as a stark warning about how quickly progress can unravel and how long recovery can take once it does. The country’s economy has been set back by nearly a decade, its people face one of the world’s most severe and least-resourced humanitarian emergencies, and its political future remains as uncertain as ever, with a military that has entrenched its power through violence rather than restored the democratic transition it destroyed. As the conflict enters its sixth year, rights groups and U.N. officials alike are calling for renewed international attention, sustained humanitarian access and genuine accountability, without which, they warn, Myanmar’s people will continue to bear the cost of a war with no end in sight.


About Sachin Yadav
Sachin Yadav is a Ph.D. scholar in International Studies at Jamia Hamdard, New Delhi With a background in economics and education. His research focuses on South Asia, India’s Neighbourhood and Geoeconomics.
View all posts by Sachin Yadav →

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

CHINA

Environmental Exploitation And Deception – Analysis



Forum Illustration

September 15, 2026

By Indo-Pacific Defense Forum

Key Takeaways:

The author says Beijing sells itself as a clean-energy leader while moving the dirtiest mining and smelting to weaker-rule states, especially along Belt and Road routes, for battery metals and rare earths.

Indonesia: Chinese firms are said to dominate nickel refining; IMIP and other parks run on captive coal, with rainforest loss, pollution, and scores of worker deaths cited. Myanmar: rare-earth and gold mines in Shan and Kachin, amid civil war, are linked to arsenic and other runoff into the Kok and Mekong; Stimson counted more than 2,400 unregulated river-side sites in Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia.

Similar patterns are claimed for Chinese-backed steel and pulp in Southeast Asia. Proposed answers: alternative supply chains, stronger host-country rules, satellite and ownership transparency, and buyer standards for EVs and electronics. The piece treats this as a health and security issue, not only an environment story.

Beijing has increasingly attempted to brand itself as a global leader in protecting the environment and providing clean energy and sustainable development. Yet underneath that propaganda lies a dark reality: China is exporting some of its worst environmental practices to developing nations through aggressive investments and resource-extraction campaigns, especially in critical minerals and raw-material industries. The result: widespread ecological destruction, toxic pollution and long-term damage to fragile ecosystems across Southeast Asia and beyond.

Examples range from nickel mining in Indonesia and rare-earth mining in Myanmar to steel and paper mills across the region, indicating a pattern of exploitation that starkly contrasts China’s professed environmental stewardship.

A geo-economic and humanitarian challenge is unfolding with implications for regional stability, public health and global security. The international community must develop solutions to China’s export of destructive environmental practices.

A Grab for Critical Minerals

As demand surges for electric vehicles (EV), renewable energy technologies and advanced electronics, the race for battery metals and rare-earth elements has intensified. Despite already being a processing leader, China has steadily expanded its reach by relocating the dirtiest, most polluting parts of its supposedly green supply chain, often to countries with weak environmental governance, lax enforcement or ongoing conflicts.

Many of the targeted countries, such as Indonesia, Laos and Myanmar, are strategically important for China under the framework of its hegemonic One Belt, One Road scheme. Beijing presents its infrastructure, smelters and industrial parks as investment or aid — but the underlying motive is resource control and profit, often at the cost of local health, ecology and sovereignty.

In Indonesia, which has the world’s largest nickel reserves, Chinese firms, notably Tsingshan Holding Group and Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry Co., control about 75% of nickel refining capacity, the United States-based global security nonprofit C4ADS reported in February 2025.


“A lack of domestic control leaves Indonesia reliant upon Chinese investment and continued support of the industry, which may limit the government’s ability to hold the industry accountable and shape the sector for its own economic benefit,” C4ADS reported.

Meanwhile, in Myanmar’s border regions, such as Shan and Kachin states, Chinese state-affiliated mining firms have ramped up rare-earth extraction, often operating under little or no regulatory oversight due to the protracted civil war, reported the Thailand-based news website The Nation.

China’s pattern of expansion suggests a deliberate strategy: secure access to critical resources cheaply and at scale, while outsourcing the environmental cost to states with weaker regulatory capacity or greater political vulnerability.

Nickel in Indonesia: The Price of Batteries

Nickel is essential for stainless steel and EV battery production. But the way China’s nickel sector has expanded in Indonesia, particularly with coal-powered smelters and processing plants, has caused severe environmental and social damage, experts contend.

China has supported this expansion through predatory financing of the massive Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) on Sulawesi and other smelter clusters on Halmahera. Many of these facilities run on captive coal-fired power plants, even as their output feeds supposed clean-energy supply chains abroad.

IMIP is expected to have an annual coal-fired power capacity of 5 gigawatts, or nearly as much coal power as Mexico generates each year, according to advocacy group Mighty Earth. In addition to high emissions, these coal plants pollute the air, water and land, threatening local livelihoods, the Asia Pacific Solidarity Network reports.


Deforestation has been extensive. Since 2000, over 8,700 hectares of rainforest have been cleared in the North Morowali region alone to make way for mines, smelters and infrastructure, according to environmental groups including Greenpeace Indonesia. This massive land conversion has destabilized local ecosystems, undermined watershed integrity and degraded habitat for biodiversity. Agricultural land and water sources vital to local communities have been disrupted, the groups report.

The pattern extends beyond Indonesia. In Papua New Guinea, testing at a Chinese-operated nickel mine revealed contamination patterns strikingly similar to those in Indonesia: inadequate containment systems, toxic runoff threatening communities and ecosystems, and dangerous levels of heavy metals, including hexavalent chromium, a carcinogen. Multiple contaminants exceed safety standards by orders of magnitude, demonstrating Chinese firms are systematically replicating harmful practices across the Pacific, according to a U.S. government analysis.

Pollution, Worker Deaths, Social Costs

The environmental toll is matched by alarming social costs. Chinese-backed nickel smelters in Indonesia were frequently accused of air and water pollution, soil contamination and biodiversity loss, according to a 2023 report by the London-based advocacy group Business and Human Rights Centre. The report, “Unpacking clean energy: Human rights impacts of Chinese overseas investment in transition minerals,” covered 18 countries with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Indonesia, Myanmar, Peru and Zimbabwe recording the highest numbers of allegations.

At the same time, labor conditions in Indonesia have been repeatedly criticized as unsafe and exploitative. Between 2015 and 2023, more than 90 deaths and 100 injuries were reported in processing facilities there. In 2023, at least 60 deaths or serious accidents were linked to Chinese-owned smelters, including a fire at a Tsingshan-owned facility that killed 21 people and injured 38, according to Mongabay, a conservation and environmental science news platform.

Pollution and wastewater runoff have decimated fish populations, destroying livelihoods of people rely on fisheries and marine resources, environmental groups report.

Underlying many of these abuses are corruption and weak enforcement. Roughly one-third of over 330 nickel mining and refining projects in Indonesia had been accused of corruption or illegal mining, according to a 2024 investigation by the China Global South Project, a nongovernmental organization.

“Corruption and environmental damage in Indonesia’s nickel industry have become closely linked: when a nickel mining company operates illegally, the local community and ecology tend to suffer,” the report said. “The widespread Chinese financing of the Indonesian nickel industry seems to have led some to grow wary of Chinese investors and their relationships with local officials, since local governments have been broadly criticized for corrupt business dealings.”

Although the report cites China for the growth of Indonesia’s nickel mining industry, the expansion has negative consequences. What is promoted as foreign investment or industrial development often translates into a de facto resource grab, with environmental safeguards sacrificed for profits and speed.


Myanmar’s Mining and the Mekong Crisis


China’s drive to dominate rare-earth resources is matched by its readiness to outsource environmental harm to unstable frontier zones.

Historically, China conducted much of its rare-earth extraction within its borders. But domestic environmental and health concerns, especially contamination of soil and groundwater, led Beijing to shutter hundreds of small private mines after 2011, according to a June 2025 report in Le Monde, a French newspaper.

Rather than cleaning up heavily polluted sectors at home, including nickel smelting, rare-earth mining and heavy industry, China began relocating them. Beijing is recasting what was once a domestic problem as a so-called foreign development opportunity,
Le Monde reported.

The cost of producing heavy rare-earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium, both used in advanced weapons systems, is one-seventh the price in Myanmar than in China, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a London-based market research firm. To meet demand, China redirected extraction to neighboring Myanmar, particularly to conflict-affected territories in Shan and Kachin states. These regions, under the sway of ethnic armed organizations or remote military outposts, offer lax oversight and minimal accountability.

Satellite imagery shows explosive growth: mining sites, road networks and waste ponds cutting into once-untouched hillsides, according to the Shan Human Rights Foundation. These mines extract key rare-earth elements for export to China.

At least a dozen gold and rare-earth mines were established in southern Shan in 2025 alone, according to Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, D.C.

Myanmar’s civil war has persisted for more than five years, producing a lawless border area mainly held by ethnic armed groups. Chinese firms operate via informal networks, often in alliance with the military junta as well as local militias or armed groups, making accountability nearly impossible, Abuza told the Al Jazeera news agency.

“In this vacuum, mining has exploded — likely with Chinese traders involved. The military in [Myanmar’s capital] Naypyidaw can’t issue permits or enforce environmental rules, but they still take their share of the profits,” he said.

In a November 2025 report, the Stimson Center think tank used satellite imagery to identify 2,420 unregulated mining sites on major river systems in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. “Over the last decade, a boom in unregulated mining has been sending dangerous contaminants such as cyanide, mercury, arsenic, and other heavy metals directly into scores of rivers throughout mainland Southeast Asia,” the report stated.

“Since the mining operation started [in Myanmar], there is no protection for the local people,” Sai Hor Hseng, a spokesman for the Shan Human Rights Foundation, which is based in the eastern Myanmar state, told Al Jazeera. The mining companies “don’t care what happens to the environment,” he said, or to those living downstream in Thailand.

Transboundary Pollution

The environmental harm is not constrained within Myanmar’s borders. Toxic runoff, including heavy metals and arsenic, has polluted the Kok River and its tributaries, which feed into the Mekong, threatening water supplies, fisheries and farming communities in northern Thailand, Laos and farther downstream.

Arsenic levels in parts of the Kok River and Mekong tributaries exceeded by as much as 40 times the levels defined as safe by health authorities, the Thailand-based CTN News portal reported in August 2025. Local communities report fish deformities and die-offs; farmers fear their crops will absorb toxins; residents have developed skin ailments after contact with contaminated water, all “traced to upstream mining operations” across the border in Shan, according to the Bangkok Post newspaper. Elevated arsenic levels also have been found in the Mekong.

The contamination potentially affects tens of millions of people across Southeast Asia. Downstream impacts of such mining ripple across borders, contaminating rivers, agricultural land, fisheries and communities in neighboring countries such as Laos and Thailand.

The cross-border pollution crisis is severely impacting millions of people in Chiang Rai in northern Thailand, who face risks to their livelihoods and health due to heavy metal contamination, particularly arsenic, in the Kok River, which flows into the Mekong and Sai rivers, Pianporn Deetes, director of Southeast Asia Campaigns at International Rivers, told the Bangkok Business newspaper.

“Local residents can no longer engage in traditional activities like fishing or operating tour boats, and farmers are worried that rice grown using water from the Kok River may be contaminated with arsenic, as rice tends to absorb arsenic well. Additionally, there have been reports of fish with unusual parasites, which correlate with mining activities disturbing the soil,” Deetes said.

Ben Hardman, Mekong legal director for the advocacy group EarthRights International, told Al Jazeera in August 2025 that residents worry that Shan and neighboring countries into which Myanmar’s rivers flow will suffer the same fate as Kachin, especially if rare-earth mine sites multiply to meet growing global demand.

“There’s a long history of rare-earth mining causing serious environmental harms that are very long-term, and with pretty egregious health implications for communities,” Hardman said. “That was the case in China in the 2010s, and is the case in Kachin now. And it’s the same situation now evolving in Shan state, and so we can expect to see the same harms.”


The pattern extends globally. Testing at Chinese-operated mining and refining facilities across the Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean reveals the same systematic failures: adverse levels of mine waste, inadequate containment, and contamination threatening water supplies and communities. Regardless of commodity or location, Chinese firms prioritize profit extraction over environmental protection, leaving host nations to bear the costs of pollution and ecological damage.

Steel, Paper Production


China’s resource grab doesn’t stop at raw materials. Through investment, Chinese firms have exported steel production, paper mills and plantations to Southeast Asia and elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific, often bringing pollution-intensive technology, weak regulation guidelines and environmental degradation.

With pressure on domestic heavy industry mounting, such as stricter regulations, expansion limits and carbon-emission targets, many Chinese steel producers, for example, are shifting to Southeast Asia and beyond. As of 2023, China accounted for about 80% of total foreign investment in new steel capacity in Southeast Asia, according to a 2025 report by Agora Industry, a Germany-based think tank.

Most of these plants rely on older, coal-fired furnace technology, which produces the most harmful emissions, particulate matter and local pollution, Agora reported. The results are rising carbon emissions regionwide as well as local air and water pollution, strain on ecological systems, and deteriorating public health. Moreover, the flood of cheap Chinese steel into Southeast Asian markets undermines local producers, discouraging investment in cleaner and more environmentally responsible steel production, the SteelRadar website reported. Chinese-backed smelting companies in Indonesia, including Tsingshan Holding Group and PT Obsidian Stainless Steel, have been linked to air pollution, contaminated water systems, fisheries damage and deforestation, according to a 2026 report on the Dhaka Tribune website.

The world has observed similar patterns in China’s pulp-and-paper sector. In recent decades, China’s growing demand for timber and paper has driven massive plantation and logging operations in Southeast Asia. Large-scale concessions for pulpwood plantations have spread across Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, often at the cost of natural forests, biodiversity and local land rights, according to the Wilson Center, a U.S.-based think tank. China’s Sun Paper Group, for example, has drawn criticism in the past decade for its paper mill operations in Laos that allegedly contaminated water, reduced agricultural quality and polluted nearby communities, causing illness among residents, according to news reports.

China-linked paper companies often acquire pulp from Southeast Asian plantations, effectively externalizing environmental degradation while reaping profits and meeting global demand. Communities displaced by these plantations lose access to forest resources; traditional agriculture and livelihoods are disrupted.


Despite China’s efforts to create a more sustainable domestic pulp-and-paper sector, its overseas supply chain — where timber is felled, plantations expanded and forests razed — remains a glaring contradiction to Beijing’s “green paper” narrative.

Strategic, Moral Leadership

Supply chain dominance in critical minerals and metals confers China with strategic leverage over industries from consumer electronics to defense. Yet evidence strongly suggests that Beijing is using its might not to build a sustainable future, but to export environmental destruction to some of the world’s most vulnerable communities, including many in Southeast Asia.

The international community, including governments, investors, multilateral institutions and civil society, must confront this reality. Transparency, accountability and enforceable standards are needed to prevent China’s exploitation in the name of clean energy, advocates say. Otherwise, emerging economies will be left with toxic landscapes, broken communities and ecological collapse while China prospers. Only by confronting such predation and holding all stakeholders accountable can peace, security and prosperity be ensured in the region.

China’s Export of Harmful Mining Practices Exacerbates Regional Pollution


China’s aggressive investments and resource mining pursuits, especially of rare-earth minerals, are accelerating environmental degradation across Southeast Asia and beyond.
Mekong River Tributaries Poisoned by Unregulated Chinese Mining

A boom in unregulated mining in the past decade has released arsenic, cyanide, mercury and other contaminants into rivers across Southeast Asia. Satellite imagery revealed more than 2,400 sites for unregulated in-situ leach (rare earth), heap leach (gold, copper, nickel, manganese) and alluvial mining (gold, silver, tin) on or alongside 43 rivers in Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. Nearly 800 of the sites are along Mekong tributaries. China is driving much of this surge, given the cost of producing rare-earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium, both used in advanced weapons systems, is one-seventh the price in Myanmar than in China, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Locations affected by Myanmar’s prolonged civil war, such as Shan and Kachin states, seem especially susceptible to such exploitation.


Case Study: China’s Exploitation of Indonesia’s Key Resources

Nickel Mining Nexus

Indonesia is the world’s largest nickel ore supplier, providing about half of global demand in 2023. Chinese companies own about 90% of Indonesia’s nickel processing facilities, and China accounts for up to 70% of all investments in Indonesia’s nickel industry, according to government officials. China’s entrenched role in Indonesia’s nickel sector has contributed to the proliferation of practices that exploit local communities and the environment.

Mining and Processing Projects 350+ projects studied; $70.2 billion in investments
Chinese shareholders control at least 75 of some
350 projects studied.
More than one third of projects were accused of or involved in corruption or illegal mining.
Water pollution is the top concern for villagers living near nickel mines and factories.
Nickel industry’s coal-power use may lead to 5,000 annual deaths by 2030 due to air pollution.
Source: 2024 China-Global South Project “Nickel Nexus” report






Deforestation in Indonesia

In addition to causing pollution through mineral extraction and processing practices, the pursuit of critical minerals has accelerated deforestation. Since 2000, for example, over 8,700 hectares of rainforest have been cleared in Indonesia’s North Morowali region in Sulawesi alone to make way for mines, smelters and infrastructure.






Reversing Environmental Degradation Caused by China

China’s exportation of harmful mining practices can be reduced by international enforcement of environmental and social standards and by increased coordination among the United States and its Allies and Partners.

The following measures can mitigate environmental damage, minimize future damage,


curtail China’s harmful practices and protect vulnerable populations and lands from abuses linked to global demand for critical minerals.

Promote Alternative Supply Chains, Strict StandardsMore countries could invest in domestic mining and processing capacity or in recycling critical minerals, under stricter environmental standards, reducing reliance on China-dominated supply chains.
Support mining and processing operations that adopt best practices, such as promoting wastewater treatment, responsible waste management and reforestation, rather than enabling the lowest-cost, highest-pollution model.

Support Regulatory Capacity, Governance in Host CountriesInternational organizations such as the United Nations and development banks should provide financial, technical and institutional support to strengthen environmental regulation, monitoring and enforcement in developing countries.

Civil-society organizations, local communities and media must be empowered to monitor, report and hold investors and governments accountable.

Promote Supply Chain Transparency

Use technology, including satellite monitoring, blockchain-based supply-chain tracing and remote sensing, to detect illicit mining, deforestation, pollution and waste mismanagement.

Publish data on ownership, financing, environmental assessments, pollution incidents and compliance so companies, regulators and the public know who is responsible and where.

Strengthen Environmental, Human Rights RequirementsGovernments, multilateral institutions and investors in allied and partner nations should demand that companies sourcing minerals or materials from abroad conduct rigorous environmental and social due diligence, covering not only mines and smelters but also supply-chain impacts and downstream pollution.

Host nation governments also should enforce licensing, environmental impact assessments and community consultation, and ensure transparency.

Apply Economic Pressure Nations and trading blocs should adopt policies and regulations that consider environmental impact and responsible sourcing, including for EVs, electronics and renewables.


This article was published by Indo-Pacific Defense FORUM


About Indo-Pacific Defense Forum
Indo-Pacific Defense Forum is sponsored by the United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) and publishes daily online articles, daily social media updates and a quarterly magazine to provide timely updates on the Indo-Pacific security environment.
View all posts by Indo-Pacific Defense Forum →

Monday, September 14, 2026

New Zealand/Aotearoa

Beyond the Labour Machine: Aotearoa, the Alliance, and the Question of Working Class Independence


Monday 14 September 2026, by Kyle Barrett



On October 23, 2025, more than 100,000 workers walked off the job in Aotearoa (the Māori-language name for New Zealand): 60,000 teachers, 30,000 nurses, 5,000 doctors, 20,000 allied health workers, firefighters, and public servants. It was the largest day of industrial action since the 1979 general strike—a forty-six year interregnum finally broken. 56 percent of New Zealanders told pollsters they backed the strikers. [1]

By the end of the year, that energy had been buried. The Post Primary Teachers’ Association—the secondary teachers’ union, and the more industrially assertive of the two teacher’s unions—accepted a settlement below inflation for its 20,000 members. In February, the over 12,000 allied health workers of the Public Service Association—New Zealand’s largest union of public sector workers, covering some 90,000 members across the state sector—voted for a similar deal. The New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI), the country’s largest education union and the most rank and file in its internal structure of the major public sector unions, nevertheless pushed through a paycutting agreement for primary teachers over substantial member opposition. The Nurses , whose last collective agreement expired in October 2024, was presented in May 2026 with another subinflation offer, leaving frontline nurses with eighteen months of frozen pay amid 5 percent inflation. No further mass strikes were called; each section of the workforce was isolated, then squeezed.

This sequence—explosion, isolation, retreat—is the most important political fact in Aotearoa today, and understanding why requires knowing how New Zealand’s unions sit in relation to its Labour Party. Labour was founded in 1916 by the unions themselves, and a bloc of them (the maritime, rail, and manufacturing unions among them) remain formally affiliated to this day: they pay affiliation fees, send delegates to Labour’s conference, and vote in its internal processes. Others, including the two teacher unions, belong to the Council of Trade Unions but hold no party allegiance at all. What the affiliated relationship buys, in practice, is a standing institutional interest in Labour’s return to office, and therefore a standing reason not to escalate a fight that might make the opposition look unable to govern. This is the structural problem that the ruling right-wing three party coalition has bet on, the parliamentary opposition has refused to confront, and the official trade union leadership has been organizationally incapable of solving. And, in the first week of June 2026, it also produced an event whose significance should not be allowed to pass without notice: the Maritime Union of New Zealand (MUNZ), a small union covering seafarers, watersiders, and port workers, the unbroken successor to the Seafarers’ and Wharfies’ unions that helped build Labour in 1916, and an affiliate of that party ever since, voted unanimously to also affiliate with the revived Alliance Party, a democratic socialist formation that held thirteen parliamentary seats in the 1990s before collapsing in 2002. [2]

The affiliation does not end the union’s century long relationship with Labour. National Secretary Carl Findlay was quick to insist that the wharfies “are not walking away from the Labour Party.” But neither does it merely add a second letterhead. For the first time in living memory, a major New Zealand trade union has openly named another political home, and identified it as socialist. The MUNZ vote is at once a symptom of Labour’s thorough failure towards the working class it claims to represent and a tentative beginning of the political reconstruction necessitated by that failure. It is not a workers’ party, but it might, if much else goes right, be the embryo of the conversation that produces one. What is promising is not the Alliance’s electoral prospects, which are slight, but the venue in which the question of independent working class representation is now being asked—inside a union’s own constitutional decision-making, rather than in the seminar room or the propaganda of a sect. A national council put it to a vote and carried it unanimously. That precedent is portable in a way that a manifesto is not; it can be tabled at the next union’s council, and the next. Crucially, the proposition it settles—that a union may hold more than one political allegiance at a time—counters the single party monopoly over labor that the Labour relationship has always depended on.

The Coalition’s Three-Year War

The National-led government was formed at the end of 2023, after the National Party’s Christopher Luxon stitched together a three-party coalition with David Seymour’s ACT and Winston Peters’s New Zealand First. ACT is a small right-libertarian party that has spent the past decade rebranding pro-market policy as anti-“woke” cultural warfare; under Seymour it has become the coalition’s ideological driver of privatization and the anti-Treaty agenda. New Zealand First is a nationalist populist formation trading on anti-immigration politics, hostility to Māori-directed spending, and Peters’s own considerable talent for keeping himself at the center of the country’s political climate. The division of labor between the three is itself a governing technique: ACT is permitted to introduce what National and New Zealand First would rather not own, and the senior partners then position themselves as moderating influences on a radicalism that they have in fact licensed. From its first week in office, the National-led government has launched the most aggressive offensive against working class living standards in a generation.

The Equal Pay Amendment Act, urgently rammed through Parliament in early May 2025 with the support of all three coalition parties, gutted the pay equity regime by raising the female workforce threshold (the proportion of employees who must be women for a role to legally qualify as work “predominantly performed by female employees”) from 60 to 70 percent, and requiring that a role meet that raised threshold for ten consecutive years. [3] The significance of that test is easy to miss from outside the jurisdiction. A pay equity claim in New Zealand is not an equal-pay-for-equal-work claim; it is an argument that an entire occupation has been systematically underpaid because it is done by women, and that its wages should therefore be compared against male dominated occupations of comparable skill and responsibility. The female predominance test is the gate through which any such claim must pass before it can be even heard. Raising the threshold and imposing a ten year historical requirement did not merely narrow future claims; it retrospectively disqualified live ones. And because the occupations in question (aged care, disability support, school administration, cleaning) are disproportionately staffed by Māori and Pasifika women in New Zealand, a change written in the language of gender lands with racialized force. Thirty-three live claims, representing tens of thousands of such workers, were dropped overnight. Finance Minister Nicola Willis told Parliament the changes would “save” the Crown an estimated NZ$12.8 billion over four years: the present value of the wages and back pay the state has decided to extract from women workers to fund tax relief for property owners.

The 2026 budget announced eighty-seven hundred further public sector job cuts over three years—roughly 14 percent of the 63,000-strong public service workforce—sold as “fiscally responsible” management and quietly justified by ministers as a substitution of AI tooling for human labor. [4]Housing support spending was cut from $655.4 million to $576.5 million for the year, even as homelessness in Auckland more than doubled from 426 to 940 rough sleepers between September 2024 and September 2025. [5] Electricity prices rose 12.2 percent in twelve months; gas 15.4 percent; insurance 10; dairy and eggs 9.9. Amid this increase in cost of living prices, the minimum wage rose only 2 percent. [6]

To these material attacks, the coalition added David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill, introduced in November 2024 as part of ACT’s coalition agreement. The bill sought to rewrite the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi (the Treaty of Waitangi)—the legal scaffolding that has supported decades of Māori claims—out of New Zealand jurisprudence. The response was the largest tangata whenua (Indigenous Māori) mobilization in living memory: the Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest march, which spanned the length of the North Island and gathered more than 42,000 marchers to Parliament. When Te Pāti Māori Member of Parliament Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke tore her copy of the bill in two and led the chamber in Ka Mate, the image spread around the world. The bill was “annihilated” at its second reading in April 2025, but its intended political work continues. The National Party and New Zealand First voted for it at the first reading precisely so they could then disclaim it—the licensing manoeuver described above, and an act of choreographed cynicism worth remembering whenever those parties claim to be moderating their partner’s worst impulses.

The throughline is austerity as statecraft. The pay equity rollback alone constitutes a form of primitive accumulation, in which a particular fraction of capital—landlords, professional services, the rentier infrastructure of the New Zealand economy—is allowed to draw rents from a feminized public sector workforce whose recourse to law has been quietly amputated. The cuts to housing support and the public service are not separate ledger items. They are a single distributional decision, executed under the cover of fiscal seriousness.
Labour as Machine

Confronted with this offensive, the Labour Party has done two things: spoken against the cuts in general terms and deliberately refused to commit to reversing them. New Zealand Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins began 2026 with a speech denouncing coalition austerity and reminding the public that “working New Zealanders have always been integral to Labour’s purpose.” Within weeks, his shadow finance team was floating “tax relief”—presented as the party’s answer to household cost pressure, and thus as a substitute for reversing the cuts that produced it—as a 2026 platform plank. Labour has committed to repealing the Equal Pay Amendment Act if it wins office, but only conditionally, in coordination with the Greens, and if fiscal “headroom” is available. The shadow cabinet has, with characteristic discipline, declined to call for the immediate restoration of dropped claims, the rehiring of fired public servants, the restoration of housing budgets, or—and this is the test—any commitment to defend the right of unions to strike against any future government, including its own.

That reticence is structural rather than personal, and the affiliated unions know it. National Secretary of the Maritime Union of New Zealand Carl Findlay’s characterization of the party as “a big machine” with “different views from different people” is more revealing than he perhaps intended. The Labour Party today functions as a stabilizer of the New Zealand state. It administered austerity in government from 2017 to 2023, during which promises to address child poverty, the housing crisis, and the healthcare emergency were systematically diluted into policy gruel that delivered the 2023 landslide to National. In opposition, it offers verbal resistance while declining to commit the working class to any struggle it could not subsequently de-escalate from office. This is the historical role of social democracy in the imperialist core: a safety valve that converts working class anger into safe electoral expression in order to bleed it off.

Former prime minister and Labour Party leader Jacinda Ardern’s 2017 mandate was a working class mandate: housing, child poverty, healthcare. She left office, having handed the premiership to Hipkins, with housing prices at record highs, child poverty stalled, and the health system in worse condition than she had found it. The 2023 landslide was not a swing to the right, but a strike by the working class electorate against a party that had squandered its trust.

The New Zealand Council of Trade Unions (CTU), which represents 320,000 workers and is itself affiliated to no party, has nonetheless accepted the Labour relationship as nonnegotiable. The 2025 megastrike was magnificent, but the architecture of its follow up was incoherent: no indefinite stoppage, no coordination with the Hīkoi networks, and no organized challenge to the coalition’s legal regime. The strike was treated as a one-day “demonstration of strength” rather than the opening of a worker’s front in a class war the government had already unilaterally declared.

New Zealand readers will recognize the pattern from 1951, 1991, and every interval when the union bureaucracy treated parliamentary patience as the safer choice only to discover that capital does not wait. The Maritime Union has reason to remember. The 1951 waterfront lockout—22,000 watersiders and supporting workers locked out for 151 days by the First National government, while the Federation of Labour leadership refused to take solidarity action—is still remembered on the Auckland and Wellington wharves. In 2026, to affiliate with a party other than Labour is to act in light of that memory.

The Alliance, Revived

The formation MUNZ has affiliated to is not new—it is a resurrection. For readers unfamiliar with the Aotearoa left, the Alliance is the country’s most historically significant post-1984 attempt to build a socialist electoral force to the left of Labour. The Alliance was born in reaction to the Fourth Labour Government’s neoliberal turn. While briefly powerful in the 1990s, it catastrophically split in 2002 and deregistered in 2015. Its 2025 return is the direct outcome of a new generation of conclusions by activists that the Labour Party cannot be reformed at the speed the crisis demands. Its history is worth recovering in some detail, because it will be tested by the same temptations that destroyed it the first time.

The Alliance was founded in December 1991 as a coalition of five formations—Jim Anderton’s NewLabour Party (a 1989 split from Labour over Rogernomics), the Green Party, Matiu Rata’s Mana Motuhake, the Democrats, and the Liberals—united against the neoliberal counterrevolution of both major parties. [7] In the 1993 election (the last under first-past-the-post), the Alliance won 18.2 percent of the vote but only two seats. That result did more than any other to discredit New Zealand’s single winner voting system and to deliver the 1996 referendum for a mixed member proportional (MMP) system, under which voters cast two ballots: one for an electorate candidate and one for a party. Under proportional representation, the Alliance returned thirteen members of Parliament on 10.1 percent in 1996. In 1999, it entered coalition with Labour. Anderton served as Deputy Prime Minister, and the government established Kiwibank as a publicly owned competitor to the Australian-owned trading banks and introduced statutory paid parental leave. Both reforms survive.

The party then destroyed itself. In 2002, Anderton broke with the membership over the deployment of New Zealand troops to Afghanistan. Most of the membership opposed the war; Anderton did not, and took several members of Parliament with him into the Progressive Party. The Alliance left Parliament that year and never returned. It was deregistered in 2015. For a decade, it existed only as a name.

In 2025, it re-registered, contested local body elections, and in January 2026 announced candidates for the November 2026 general election. In February, it held a national conference at the Trade Union Centre in Christchurch—the venue choice is not incidental—at which Victor Billot (MUNZ’s National Communications Officer) was elected leader. [8]The platform ratified at that conference is a socialist program of the social democratic left. Its constitution commits the party to public ownership of energy, transport, water, ports, rail, and shipping; free healthcare and education; a steeply progressive tax system; recognition of Te Tiriti o Waitangi as the constitutional foundation; an independent foreign policy grounded in Pacific solidarity; and—point ten, stated without embarrassment—the assertion that “global capitalism is not permanent or invincible” and that the party fights for “a socialist alternative.” It accepts no corporate donations.

This is not a revolutionary program. It is recognizably reformist in method: it conceives the path to socialism as passing through the parliamentary state and organized via a mass electoral party. Anyone who has read Charlie Post or Kim Moody on the limits of broad left party projects, from Syriza to Podemos to Die Linke, knows the catalogue of dangers. [9] The Alliance is not exempt, as its own history demonstrates. In 1999 it entered a coalition with a center-left Labour government, and that coalition’s commitments to war and the IMF-disciplined fiscal framework of the Helen Clark government were precisely what tore the party apart.

But the question is not whether the Alliance is the party we would write into existence. It is not. The question is what the Alliance currently is: a small organization with fewer than five hundred dues paying members at the time of the MUNZ vote that has begun to do two things: it provides an electoral vehicle through which the demands for nationalization, the restoration of the social wage, and a break with the neoliberal consensus can be voiced as a program rather than as moral protest; and it provides an institutional space outside the Labour Party in which trade union militants (beginning with the wharfies) can locate themselves politically without swallowing Labour discipline.

The under-five-hundred figure is being deployed, especially in left-of-Labour journalism that finds the Alliance embarrassing, as evidence that the affiliation is a stunt. This is upside down. The Alliance’s small size is precisely what makes MUNZ’s decision meaningful. A union of MUNZ’s weight—small in membership, but central by sector and capable of halting freight through the country’s ports—has voted to affiliate with an organization it knows it can shape. That is not a stunt; it is a calculation about leverage.

What the Maritime Union Did

The substance of the MUNZ vote warrants pause. Findlay was specific about what the union sees in the Alliance that it does not see in Labour: a commitment to halt asset sales, to keep ports in public ownership, to rebuild the national rail network and a New Zealand-flagged merchant fleet, and to treat coastal shipping as strategic infrastructure rather than a cost center to be auctioned to the highest bidder. He also named the immediate provocation: open speculation about the Dubai state-owned port operator DP World “sniffing around” the Lyttelton Port Company, which posted a record half year profit in February 2026 even as the coalition’s broader privatization agenda accelerated. [10]

These are not merely abstract considerations. The partial privatization of the New Zealand ports is already producing the conditions that led to the Ports of Auckland deaths in the early 2020s. Privatization is a direct attack on wharfies’ working conditions and on the union’s ability to enforce safety standards. The Maritime Union’s resistance is the basic union function of defending the social conditions of work.

That defense has led to a political conclusion that the union’s leadership has treated as taboo for over a century: the Labour Party cannot be relied on to do this work alone, and working class political representation must therefore be plural. This conclusion is being tested within an electoral architecture whose Mixed-Member Proportional voting system makes possible. Under first-past-the-post voting, dual affiliation would lead to vote splitting in marginal seats. Under MMP, every percentage point above the 5 percent threshold translates into seats, and electorate wins translate independently of the party vote. A union strategy of voting Labour in the electorate and Alliance in the party vote makes arithmetic sense. While MMP is insufficient to produce a workers’ party, it removes one of the structural defenses on which the Labour-union fusion has historically relied. In other words, it opens a door for dual affiliation.

Beginnings, Not Arrivals

We should be precise about what the affiliation does and does not constitute. Affiliation to the Alliance does not constitute a workers’ party in the sense used in Spectre’s recent debates on the rank and file strategy. The Alliance is not, currently, a vehicle for politically organizing and generalizing workers’ direct action on the job. It is an electoral party that has acquired the affiliation of a militant union. The distinction matters.

The danger of conflating the two is substitution—that is, the temptation to treat a parliamentary vehicle as a substitute for the slow, structural work of rebuilding workplace organization, training rank and file leaders, defeating concessionary contracts, and reconstructing the cross-sectoral solidarity that turns a one day megastrike into the beginning of sustained class confrontation. The CTU’s demobilization after October 23 was not caused by the absence of a workers’ party. It was caused by the active choices of union officials who treated each affiliate’s contract as a separate negotiation and refused to call strike action despite the clear invitation of both the moment and the polls.

A new party, even a good one, cannot fix that. David McNally and Charlie Post’s “Beyond Electoralism,” published in Spectre in November 2025, made the case bluntly: “revolutionary socialists have never rejected participation in electoral politics. What they have contested is the elevation of electoral campaigning to the strategic priority of the Left.” [11] The argument applies on the south side of the Pacific. The Alliance can be useful, even necessary, but it cannot replace the work of rebuilding the unions from below. If the MUNZ affiliation is treated as the end of the political question rather than its beginning—as delegating to Billot the tasks that the wharfies and their allies should be doing themselves—it will become exactly the kind of substitution that has hollowed out broader left projects across Europe. Paul Ginsberg, writing in this journal on the United States, has put the same point in his engagement with electoralism. As opposed to substitution, Ginsberg calls for “hybrid tactics” in which the anticapitalist left works to defeat the right electorally while also building the mass force that can defeat it lastingly. As Ginsberg stipulates, “neither imperative can be sacrificed to the other.” [12]

The way to prevent substitution is to use affiliation as an organizing lever. The most useful thing the Alliance can be over the next eighteen months is a meeting ground: a place where rank and file militants from the Nurses Organisation, NZEI, the Post Primary Teachers’ Association, the Public Service Association, First Union, E tū, Unite, and the dozens of smaller formations springing up around insecure work sectors can meet one another outside the disciplinary architecture of the Labour caucus. The model is recognizable in the Labor Notes network in the United States and in the rank and file traditions of the British trade union left. It is the work of building the infrastructure of cross-union solidarity that can independently call for action and sustain it alongside the electoral vehicle. Whether the Alliance can host that work remains an open question. Its 1999–2002 experience is a warning. Any party aspiring to be a working class formation in 2026 under MMP and in the face of both present geopolitical pressure and an Aotearoa state edging toward AUKUS Pillar Two and lifting defense spending past 2 percent of GDP for the first time since the early 1990s will have its principles tested early. Its constitutional commitment to “an independent foreign policy” and to “Pacific solidarity” will be tested by Washington’s first request for naval access, the first dispute over Chinese deep sea cable infrastructure, and the first port visit by a nuclear powered submarine.

Te Tiriti, Tangata Whenua, and the Class Question

A workers’ party in Aotearoa that does not understand itself, from the foundations up, as a party of Te Tiriti will reproduce the Labour Party’s settler colonial bad faith. This is not moral hygiene. It is the basic strategic recognition that the New Zealand working class has, since 1840, been structured along a color line; that Māori workers have historically been segregated into the most exploited sectors of the labor market; that Pasifika workers, recruited under the conditions of the dawn raids and their successors, have been used as a deliberate wedge against Pākehā labor; and that the very pay equity claims gutted by the 2025 Act were disproportionately filed by Māori and Pasifika women in care work. Any project of working class political renewal that does not put Te Tiriti at its center is, in practice, a project for the section of the working class the settler state most readily recognizes.

The Alliance constitution’s sixth principle—recognition of Te Tiriti, “redress of violation of Te Tiriti,” respect for Te Reo Māori and Māoritanga “as the first culture and language of this country”—is a starting point. On its own, it is merely words on a page. The party that emerges from this moment will be judged on whether it can build structural relationships with Te Pāti Māori, iwi authorities, the kohanga reo and kura kaupapa networks, and the urban Māori organizations that the Hīkoi mō te Tiriti revealed to be capable of mass mobilization. The 42,000 at Parliament in November 2024 were, for the most part, not organized by the existing Pākehā left. James Stout, writing in Spectre on liberatory movements from Spain to Rojava to Myanmar, argues that the fiercest struggles against oppression not only resist power but also build new ways of living together. [13] Te ao Māori has been doing that work in Aotearoa since 1840. A workers’ party worth the name will take its lead from it.

The Maritime Union has more institutional memory of this work than many other unions. Its history of solidarity with the 1981 Springbok tour protests, the Bastion Point occupation, and port based internationalism—most recently through its public backing of the Global Sumud Flotilla and recognition of Palestine—gives it a place to stand. But solidarity with tangata whenua at home, on the question of tino rangatiratanga, is harder and slower work. It is the work without which an Alliance-MUNZ axis will simply be the latest iteration of a Pākehā labor politics that mistakes its own horizon for the country.

What is the “Starting Point” For?

Is the Alliance’s revival and the Maritime Union’s affiliation a starting point for a working class government party in Aotearoa?

The honest answer is that it is the starting point for a conversation about such a party. The conditions for the party itself are not yet in place. If they are produced, they will be the product of what the working class itself does over the next two years, in the strikes not yet called, the workplace fights not yet won, and the cross-union infrastructure not yet built. In this project, the Alliance can be a useful interlocutor. It is not, at its current scale and program, the vessel into which the New Zealand working class should pour itself.

What the Alliance can be—and what the MUNZ vote has begun to make it—is a wedge: a small, deliberately placed instrument for prying open the union-Labour fusion that has contained New Zealand working class politics within a settler colonial social democracy and prevented its development of an organizationally independent expression for more than a century. The fusion is old and stronger than it appears, supported by a Labour bureaucracy whose first reflex when challenged is to remind workers—in the same tones used by the New South Wales right of the Australian Labor Party—that they have nowhere else to go.

The MUNZ affiliation says: yes, we do—not in the sense that Labour is finished, nor that the Alliance is the party we need. But in the sense that the assumption of nowhere else to go is itself a piece of political infrastructure that can be dismantled vote by vote, affiliation by affiliation, union by union, and that this dismantling has now begun.

We have watched too many “broad left” formations—from Corbynism to the Sanders movements to the various European left-populist projects—mistake a beginning for a destination. The Alliance, if it survives and grows, will face all those temptations: to soften its program to meet 5 percent thresholds, treat union affiliations as electoral assets rather than as sites of mutual political education, and discipline its own militants in the name of parliamentary respectability. The only guarantee against any of this is the existence, outside the electoral party, of a working class movement strong enough to hold it to account.

That movement is being built right now in Aotearoa—at the bedside, in the classroom, on the wharf, in the back of the ambulance, and on the picket lines of the next strike the CTU leadership will, at first, try not to call. It is being built in exactly the kind of workers’ experiments with new forms of politics that John Schultz has documented elsewhere in this journal: inchoate self-activity that, in its very doing, calls the class relation into question.14 The most that can be said for the affiliation at Lyttelton, the Alliance’s small founding meetings in church halls and union centers, Billot’s leadership, and Findlay’s careful framing of dual affiliation is that some of the country’s most experienced working class organizers have decided to stop waiting. In a country whose official left has been waiting since 1984, that is a beginning.

8 September 2026

Source: Spectre.

Footnotes

[1] Joe Hendren, “Mega Strike in New Zealand Demands Funding for Public Services, Raises,” Labor Notes, November 2025, https://labornotes.org/blogs/2025/11/mega-strike-new-zealand-demands-funding-public-services-raises; Tom Peters, “More Than 100,000 Join New Zealand’s Biggest Strike in Over 45 years,” World Socialist Web Site, October 24, 2025, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2025/10/24/crch-o24.html.

[2] Penny Smith, “Maritime Union affiliates with Alliance Party, keeps door open to Labour,” RNZ News, June 7, 2026, https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/597493/maritime-union-affiliates-with-alliance-party-keeps-door-open-to-labour. On MUNZ’s own affiliations, see Maritime Union of New Zealand, https://munz.org.nz/. By contrast, the Post Primary Teachers’ Association states explicitly that it is not affiliated to any political party; see “PPTA is not affiliated to the Labour Party,” https://www.ppta.org.nz/publication-library/ppta-is-not-affiliated-to-the-labour-party/.

[3] Wendy Zeldin, “New Zealand: Controversial Changes to Pay Equity Legislation Enacted,” Global Legal Monitor, Library of Congress, June 26, 2025, https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2025-06-26/new-zealand-controversial-changes-to-pay-equity-legislation-enacted/; NZEI Te Riu Roa, “Government changes to pay equity — May 2025,” https://www.nzeiteriuroa.org.nz/help-advice/knowledge-base/government-changes-to-pay-equity-may-2025. Finance Minister Nicola Willis’s NZ$12.8 billion figure is from her 2026 Budget announcement.

[4] Jamie Ensor, “Budget 2026: Nicola Willis’ public service cuts to save $2.4b, 8700 jobs to go,” New Zealand Herald, May 19, 2026, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/budget-2026-pm-christopher-luxon-promising-job-cuts-as-nicola-willis-to-unveil-public-service-shrink/ERIJHW5CHJDRTPZHNA7O6CAYVA/; see also “New Zealand budget 2026 raises concerns over jobs, public sector cuts and long-term unemployment,” People Matters Global, May 2026.

[5] Tom Peters, “Homelessness worsens in New Zealand,” World Socialist Web Site, January 5, 2026, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/01/05/cayx-j05.html.

[6] “Cost of Living Crisis NZ 2026: Why Household Expenses Are Surging and What Families Need to Know,” Kalkine NZ, 2026, https://kalkine.co.nz/by-topic/economic-news/cost-of-living-crisis-nz-2026-why-household-expenses-are-surging-and-what-families-need-to-know; Stats NZ, “Household living costs increase 3.0 percent,” https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/household-living-costs-increase-3-0-percent/.

[7] For the Alliance’s foundational history, see the party’s official account at https://allianceparty.nz/about/; and “New Zealand: Alliance Adopts a Socialist Manifesto,” Green Left, January 14, 2004, https://www.greenleft.org.au/2004/566/world/new-zealand-alliance-adopts-socialist-manifesto.

[8] The Christchurch Trade Union Centre is the longstanding home of the city’s organized labor movement and a working union building rather than a conference venue. Holding the founding conference there, rather than in a hired hall, signaled the party’s intention to root itself in existing union structures, rather than in the activist milieu—a claim the MUNZ affiliation gave substance to four months later.

[9] See Kim Moody, Breaking the Impasse: Electoral Politics, Mass Action, and the New Socialist Movement in the United States (Chicago: Haymarket, 2022); and Charlie Post, “Beyond Electoralism: Mass Action and the Remaking of the Working Class,” Spectre, November 25, 2025, https://spectrejournal.com/beyond-electoralism/.

[10] Lyttelton Port posts record half-year profit,” RNZ News, February 4, 2026, https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/585958/lyttelton-port-posts-record-half-year-profit; “Maritime Union Vows To Fight Lyttelton Port Privatisation Plans,” Scoop News, June 5, 2026, https://business.scoop.co.nz/2026/06/05/maritime-union-vows-to-fight-lyttelton-port-privatisation-plans/

[12] Paul Ginsberg, “For a United Front Against Neofascism,” Spectre, May 19, 2026, https://spectrejournal.com/for-a-united-front-against-neofascism/.

[13] James Stout, “The Only Way Out Is Together,” Spectre, June 2, 2026, https://spectrejournal.com/the-only-way-out-is-together/.