Ex-U.N. chief Ban urges Guterres to engage directly with Myanmar army

By Michelle Nichols 4/19/2021

© Reuters/THOMAS PETER Chinese President Xi Jinping meets head of the International Olympic Committee's ethics commission, former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in Beijing

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Former U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon urged his successor on Monday to engage directly with Myanmar's military to prevent an increase in post-coup violence and said southeast Asian countries should not dismiss the turmoil as an internal issue for Myanmar.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' special envoy on Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, has communicated with the military since it ousted an elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb. 1, but the army has not allowed her to visit.

"Given the gravity and urgency of the situation, I believe the secretary-general himself should use his good offices to engage directly with the Myanmar military, to prevent an escalation of violence," Ban, secretary-general from 2007 to 2016, told a U.N. Security Council meeting.

Guterres is "very actively involved" on Myanmar and "has been for a long time," said U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric, adding: "His good offices, along with his special envoy, are always available. We all want to see an end to the violence."

Guterres told the Security Council on Monday that a "robust international response grounded on a unified regional effort" was needed, urging "regional actors to leverage their influence to prevent further deterioration and, ultimately, find a peaceful way out of this catastrophe."

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been trying to find a way out of the violence tearing at fellow member Myanmar. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is due to attend an ASEAN summit in Indonesia on April 24.

"ASEAN must make it clear to the Myanmar military that the current situation is so grave that it cannot be regarded only as an internal matter," said Ban, a former South Korean foreign minister who is now a member of The Elders global leaders group.

According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners activist group, 737 people have been killed by security forces since the coup and 3,229 remain in detention.

"The military's use of lethal force and the gross violations of human rights being perpetrated against the civilians are not compatible with the ASEAN Charter," he said. "These actions are clear violations of international law, and constitute a threat to the peace, security and stability of the region."

Ban also urged the Security Council to move beyond statements to collective action. However, some diplomats say Russia and China are likely to prevent any stronger action.

(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; editing by Grant McCool)

HOLST THE PLANETS

 

AS IMPORTANT AS THE MOONLANDING

Mars helicopter makes history with first powered flight on another planet

 ...Mars helicopter performed its first test flight at 3:30 a.m. ET, on Monday, April 19.

SIXTY YEARS SINCE THE FIRST MAN IN SPACE

Scott Sutherland 

THE WEATHER NETWORK

4/19/2021

The day has finally arrived! Ingenuity, the little helicopter that tagged along to Mars with NASA's Perseverance rover, has now made history by achieving the first powered flight on another planet.

All about Mars: The objective of the mars perseverance rover

This story has been updated.

Ingenuity, the Mars Helicopter, is a ground-breaking technology demonstration to test powered, controlled flight on Mars. This is something that was once thought to be impossible, due to Mars' extremely thin atmosphere. The mission team has now proved that this is, indeed, possible, and this could lead to new types of exploration on Mars.

© Provided by The Weather Network

Perseverance's first rover selfie, on April 6, 2021, included Ingenuity in the picture (also shown enlarged in the inset). Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Scott Sutherland

After a few delays, the Mars helicopter performed its first test flight at 3:30 a.m. ET, on Monday, April 19.

During this test, Ingenuity spun its twin rotors up to 2,500 revolutions per minute (roughly three times the rpm of helicopters on Earth). This generated enough lift for the helicopter to rise up into the air to a height of 3 metres above the ground. Ingenuity then hovered, pivoting towards Perseverance in the process, and gently lowered itself back to the ground.

© Provided by The Weather Network

This still image from the Mastcam-Z video shows Ingenuity hovering above the surface. Visible on the ground beneath it is the helicopter's shadow. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

"We can now say that human beings have flown a rotorcraft on another planet!" said Mimi Aung, Project Manager of the Mars Helicopter Ingenuity at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

The data from this flight was relayed to Earth via Perseverance and the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, arriving shortly after 6:30 a.m. ET. The data to confirm the successful test consisted of a simple graph that showed the helicopter's altitude with time. Images taken by the downward-facing cameras on the helicopter were also transmitted back to Earth.

The best view of this flight, though, was provided by the Perseverance rover, via its high-resolution Mastcam-Z camera. Watch the flight, below:

 

DELAYS

Originally, Ingenuity was scheduled for its first test flight on Sunday, April 11. In the days leading up to this, however, it ran into a problem while testing its systems.

© Provided by The Weather Network

The Mars Helicopter, imaged by one of Perseverance's navigation cameras (Navcams) on April 5, 2021. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Scott Sutherland

According to NASA, "During a high-speed spin test of the rotors on Friday, the command sequence controlling the test ended early due to a 'watchdog' timer expiration. This occurred as it was trying to transition the flight computer from 'Pre-Flight' to 'Flight' mode. The helicopter is safe and healthy and communicated its full telemetry set to Earth."

Based on this, the first flight was delayed until at least April 14.

In an update on April 12, NASA said that they found a way to program a solution to the problem that occurred. This required the new program to be validated and transmited to Ingenuity, and then the tiny drone would be rebooted for the new programming to take effect. Since this process was expected to take some time to complete, they delayed the date of the first test flight sometime during the week of April 19.
FIRST POWERED FLIGHT

While several missions so far can be said to have 'flown' through Mars' atmosphere, everything that came before Ingenuity would be more appropriately called 'controlled falling'.

Provided by The Weather Network

In this computer simulation, Ingenuity is shown flying a short distance away from the Perseverance rover. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

Ingenuity was the first attempt at true powered, controlled flight on another planet.

So, why even test such a thing?

With powered flight an actual possibility on Mars, this opens up a new facet to surface missions that we haven't explored yet. Perhaps in the future, every new rover or lander will include a helicopter companion that can quickly explore and scout around where its primary is located. Or, perhaps we fill a Pathfinder-style lander with a swarm of helicopters that can fan out and quickly explore a wide area in a short amount of time.

NOT THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT

Mars does not have the best environment for flight. It's cold and dusty, and this combination can put off some impressive static charge. These conditions can test the electronic hardware of any robot, especially that of a small helicopter drone.

The biggest challenge that Ingenuity faced, though, was the planet's atmosphere. The atmosphere of Mars has less than one per cent of the surface pressure of Earth's atmosphere.

 Provided by The Weather Network

This image taken by the Viking 1 orbiter in June 1976 provides a glimpse of Mars' thin, dusty atmosphere from space. Credit: NASA/Viking 1.

This has been a challenge for all missions that have landed on the planet. There's just barely enough air there for heat shields and parachutes to function properly, so every mission has needed something extra beyond those measures. For Pathfinder & Sojourner, Spirit, and Opportunity, airbags allowed the robots to bounce across the surface and eventually roll to a stop. The more massive Curiosity and Perseverance rovers required the impressive 'powered sky crane' maneuvers to touch down intact and safe.

Ingenuity attempted something none of these other missions had tried, though.

Now, the mission team didn't going into this blindly, of course. They tested Ingenuity in a special chamber at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, known as the Space Simulator. In this immense sealed chamber, they recreated the cold, low-pressure atmospheric conditions that Ingenuity will encounter on Mars and then tailored the small helicopter to fly in those conditions.

The question of whether it will actually work in the real environment has now been answered! Watch for more updates in the days to come.

18 YEARS IN COURT!

First Nations on Vancouver Island celebrate B.C. Court of Appeal fisheries ruling

VANCOUVER — Canada must remedy problems in commercial fishery regulations arising from a legal battle that was first launched in 2003 by a group of Vancouver Island First Nations, the British Columbia Court of Appeal has ruled.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

While there is no demonstrated need to make mandatory orders, they would "remain available if Canada does not act diligently to remedy the problems," Justice Harvey Groberman wrote in a decision released Monday.

A three-judge panel unanimously upheld parts of an April 2018 ruling by the B.C. Supreme Court that found Canada's management of regular commercial fisheries unjustifiably infringed on the First Nations' rights.

In that judgment, Justice Mary Humphries gave Ottawa one year to offer the plaintiffs opportunities to exercise their rights to harvest and sell salmon, groundfish, crab and prawn in a manner that remedied those infringements.

The decision outlined several specific infringements related to the allocation of Pacific salmon and directed Ottawa to take a more "generous approach" to chinook allocations for the First Nations, noting the policy at the time gave recreational fishers priority over them.

But the five Nuu-chah-nulth First Nations — Ehattesaht, Hesquiaht, Ahousaht, Tla‑o‑qui‑aht and Mowachaht/Muchalaht — appealed the decision, which dismissed their argument that Canada failed in its duty to consult them by refusing to implement proposals raised in discussions outside the courts to resolve the dispute and negotiate new policies.

The Appeal Court found Humphries did not err in that part of her decision.

But the court said she did make an error in limiting certain commercial fishing rights to vessels of a particular size and fishing capacity.

Humphries "went too far" in her interpretation of a 2009 B.C. Supreme Court decision that upheld the nations' right to commercial fisheries, Groberman wrote.

She found that right should be interpreted as a "non-exclusive, small scale, artisanal, local, multi-species fishery ... using small, low-cost boats with limited technology and restricted catching power, and aimed at wide community participation," the Appeal Court judgment says.

Humphries was entitled to interpret the earlier ruling, Groberman wrote, but she did not have the authority to diminish the nations' commercial fishing rights. If upheld, her interpretation would have done so, he said.

"The limitations the judge placed on the levels of technology and the types of vessel that could be used do not take into account the need to allow Aboriginal rights to evolve to meet modern conditions and requirements."

Nuu-chah-nulth leaders hailed the decision as a major victory, while pushing Fisheries and Oceans Canada to implement their rights immediately.

"Why does it take all these years and all these court battles when the federal government should be sitting at the table with our nations and working this out, especially in times now of reconciliation," Judith Sayers, president of the Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council, told a news conference.

"We look forward to seeing these five nations being able to go out and fish as they have since time immemorial."

Fisheries and Oceans Canada said it will "take the necessary time to properly review the decision" by the Appeal Court.

The department will continue to work with the five First Nations on implementation of their rights to fish and sell fish, and on their participation in commercial fishing more generally, it said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 19, 2021.

This story was produced with the financial assistance of the Facebook and Canadian Press News Fellowship.

Brenna Owen, The Canadian Press

Tesla crash: Police say no one was in driver's seat in Texas crash

By Chris Isidore, CNN Business 4/19/2021

Two passengers were killed in a crash of a Tesla Model S on Saturday in which there was no one sitting in the driver's seat, according to police. 

© Scott Engle A fatal crash of a Tesla Saturday night in Spring, Texas, reportedly took place without anyone in the driver's seat.

The crash in the Houston suburb of Spring, Texas, killed a person in the front passenger seat and one in the rear seat of the car, according to Constable Mark Herman, the head of the Harris County police precinct that responded to the crash.

"I can tell you our investigators are certain no one was in the driver's seat at the time of the crash," he told CNN Monday.

But later Monday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the "Autopilot" feature available on this car was not engaged, based upon "data logs recovered so far." He did not give details about what the data logs did in fact show, or if they ran up through the moment of the accident.

He also said an even more advanced self-driving feature known as Full Self-Driving capability, or FSD, that is available on a limited number of Tesla cars, had not been purchased with this vehicle.

"Moreover, standard Autopilot would require lane lines to turn on, which this street did not have," Musk said in his tweet.

The names of the two crash victims, a 69-year old man, and a 59-year old man, were not immediately released by authorities. The car, a 2019 Tesla Model S, apparently went off the road after being unable to navigate a curve and hit some trees. Herman said the crash is still under investigation and that the exact speed was not yet known. But he said evidence suggests the car was moving at a "high rate of speed."

The Tesla Autopilot feature is designed to assist the driver by keeping the car in a lane of traffic and slowing or stopping the car to avoid obstacles ahead.

Telsa's website does caution that "current Autopilot features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous." But just this past Saturday, just hours before the Saturday night accident, Musk tweeted out a claim that the Autopilot feature was significantly safer than human drivers.

"Tesla with Autopilot engaged now approaching 10 times lower chance of an accident than average vehicle," he tweeted.

Musk was referring to company data that showed Teslas with the Autopilot engaged were involved in just one accident for every 4.19 million miles driven in the first quarter of this year, compared to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data that Tesla said shows one crash in every 484,000 miles for human-operated cars.

But those miles-driven comparisons are not necessarily valid, since the drivers using Autopilot may be more likely to activate it on limited access highways where there is reduced chances of a crash, while the NHTSA data covers all miles driven, including those on local streets with intersections.

Safety concerns

There have been numerous criticisms of the Tesla Autopilot system from safety experts, including the use of the name "Autopilot," which some of those critics say encourages owners to believe the car can actually drive itself.

The National Transportation Safety Board, when issuing a report on a 2018 fatal crash involving a Tesla using Autopilot, said that the car maker was not doing enough to ensure that drivers remained aware of their surroundings and ready to take control of the car in order to avoid accidents.

"This tragic crash clearly demonstrates the limitations of advanced driver assistance systems available to consumers today," said NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt in a February 2020 report on the 2018 crash in Mountainview, California. "There is not a vehicle currently available to US consumers that is self-driving. Period. Every vehicle sold to US consumers still requires the driver to be actively engaged in the driving task, even when advanced driver assistance systems are activated."

Tesla, which generally ignores questions from the media, did not respond to a request for comment about the crash, other than the tweet from Musk. In the past Tesla has defended the use of the Autopilot name, saying that even in the case of airplane autopilot systems, the pilot is still required to be attentive and ready to take over in case of an emergency.

Constable Herman said his department has already been in contact with the NTSB and NHTSA about the crash. It has not been in contact with Tesla as of yet, he said.

Early Monday NHTSA said it has already deployed a Special Crash Investigation team to investigate the crash. Later in the day the NTSB, which is better known for investigating airline crashes, said it is sending two investigators to Texas to conduct a safety investigation looking at both the vehicle's operations and the fire that followed the crash.

The autopilot feature requires the driver's seatbelt to be buckled in order to be engaged. It also is designed to alert the driver if they are not keeping their hands on the wheel often enough.

The crash Saturday resulted in a fire that took firefighters on the scene four hours to put out, using 32,000 gallons of water, according to Herman.

Gasoline powered cars are generally at greater risk of fire in a crash than a pure electric vehicle, but the large battery that powers those cars can catch fire if damaged in a crash. The EV batteries typically take longer to ignite than gasoline, however.

-- CNN Business' Matt McFarland and Peter Valdes-Dapena contributed to this report

DON'T YOU HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS

Rogers says disruptive wireless outage caused by Ericsson software update

Rogers Communications Inc. said late Monday that services were beginning to return to normal but that it could still be hours before it fully fixed a massive wireless outage it 

said was caused by a software update from Ericsson.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

"It will take several more hours for all customers and regions to return to full service," media relations director Andrew Garas said in an email.

"We will continue to work around the clock with our network partner Ericsson until that happens."

Chief technology officer Jorge Fernandes had said in a message on the company's website earlier that the company's TV, home and business wireline internet, and home phone services were not impacted.

The intermittent wireless service issues left Rogers customers without phone or texting services beginning early Monday, with broad economic ramifications across Canada, experts said.

"It's a very big deal," said Tyler Chamberlin, assistant professor at the Telfer School of Management at the University of Ottawa. "It can have very big consequences on our economy."

In addition to personal communications, experts said the outage impacted business sales and services such as food delivery and curbside pickup, payments that require a wireless connection and the ability for people to work remotely.

The service interruption could also imapct health, with some Rogers customers saying they'd been unable to book or check in for medical appointments.

Garas apologized for the disruption and thanked customers for their patience.

According to Downdetector, a website that tracks outages, problems were reported in most major Canadian cities.

Although the service disruption appeared concentrated in southern Ontario, an outage map suggested the service problems spanned the country from British Columbia to Nova Scotia.

Users said they were unable to place or receive cellphone calls or text messages.

Rogers owns a national wireless network that does business under the Rogers, Fido and Chatr brands.

It's one of Canada's big three wireless carriers along with Bell and Telus.

The massive outage could flame concerns about telecommunications consolidation and costs in Canada, Chamberlin said.

"It's infrastructure, it's equipment and it's going to fail here and there," he said. "But the fact that we're paying more than most of the consumers around the world would suggest that our tolerance for outages like this is probably quite limited."

According to an investor page on the Rogers website, the telecommunications company provides both postpaid and prepaid wireless services to about 10.9 million consumer and business subscribers in the Canadian wireless market.

Some of those users expressed frustration on social media, noting that they rely on the wireless service as they work from home under ongoing COVID-19 restrictions.

"We’re in another major lockdown here in Ontario and economically that's far less disruptive … than stopping people from being digitally connected," Chamberlin said.

Toronto resident and communications specialist Rachael Collier, a Fido customer, said she first noticed her phone wasn't working Monday morning when she tried to make a doctor's appointment.

"I thought my call wasn't going through because so many people are trying to get vaccines today," she said during a Google Meet interview.

"Then I realized I couldn't make any calls," Collier said. "They're saying it's intermittent, but my phone hasn't worked all day. It's clearly an absolutely massive outage."

With her home internet still working, Collier said she was able to work as usual. But she worried about how the wireless outage impacted people trying to get a COVID-19 vaccine.

"I'm concerned that on the first day of vaccination appointments basically opening, people who are relying on their phones to make an appointment have been cut off," she said.

Milton resident Deep Mehta said he hadn't had service for more than 12 hours.

"It's frustrating because I'm trying to operate a business from home and that's the number that everyone has," he said. "I just had to take my son to the orthodontist and I couldn't check in on my phone."

Several emergency services organizations explained that while wireless customers could still place 911 calls during a service interruption, they were unable to receive a call back.

"People should still continue calling 911 for emergencies and remain on the line until an operator speaks to them," Cpl. Caroline Duval, an RCMP spokeswoman, said in an email.

"They should also watch for updates/direction from their local police (including local RCMP where we are the police of jurisdiction) as well as Rogers for updates regarding affected areas."

The Winnipeg Police Service said on Twitter that Rogers and Fido customers would still be able to call 911 but had to remain on the line to speak with an operator.

Peel Regional Police said on Twitter that if Rogers customers called 911, they should remain on the line as operators were unable to call back.

"We are experiencing several 911 drop calls that require followup," Waterloo Regional Police also said on Twitter. "Please do not hang up if you call 911. Stay on the line so we can make sure you’re okay."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 19, 2021.

Companies in this story: (TSX:RCI.B)

Brett Bundale, The Canadian Press

Lawsuits filed: Families of workers killed in B.C. train derailment allege negligence

"The changes need to be made so that profits can no longer be put before people's well-being."

4/19/2021

FIELD, B.C. — The mother of one of three railway employees killed during a train derailment near the British Columbia-Alberta boundary doesn't want anyone else to feel the same kind of pain that her family did.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

"I don't want any other family to have to go through what we've gone through. That would be a great blessing if that didn't have to happen again," Pam Fraser said Monday in a phone interview from Calgary.

Fraser's son, Dylan Paradis, was a conductor on the Canadian Pacific freight train that plummeted off a bridge in February 2019. Paradis, engineer Andrew Dockrell and trainee Daniel Waldenberger-Bulmerone were in the lead locomotive and were killed.

Fraser and Dockrell's family have filed lawsuits alleging negligence in the derailment that sent 99 cars and two locomotives tumbling off the tracks.

"Gross negligence is a good word. I think it's an utter lack of respect for human life," Fraser said.

The westbound train was parked on a grade and had its air brakes on when it started rolling on its own, gaining speeds far above the limit for the mountain pass near Field, B.C.

The Transportation Safety Board has said handbrakes were not applied and the train barrelled along for just over three kilometres before it derailed at a curve ahead of a bridge.

The claims filed in B.C. Supreme Court name the rail company, its CEO, board of directors, CP police and the federal minister of transport.

The lawsuits allege the workers weren't provided a safe work environment, CP Rail failed to follow safety procedures and the company's police force should not have been allowed to do the investigation into the crash.

"This story is about the broader culpability of a number of people. I'll put CP Rail aside. They are the epicentre of the problem," said Regina lawyer Tavengwa Runyowa.

"But the even bigger problem is pretty much our federal government, because they created a framework where all of this was possible. This system has existed for decades, many people have died and nothing has happened."

Runyowa said the Railway Safety Act allows private companies to have their own police forces, which emboldens them to concentrating more on profit instead of employee safety.

"It's not just about saying that CP caused these deaths and there were all of these things that were not working properly," Runyowa said. "There's a bigger systemic problem here where we have allowed a whole industry to pretty much regulate itself."

CP Rail responded to the allegations in a statement.

"We continue to reflect on the events of Feb. 4, 2019, and mourn the loss of Dylan Paradis, Daniel Waldenberger-Bulmer and Andrew Dockrell. These railroaders will never be forgotten," it reads.

"CP disputes these baseless allegations and will vigorously defend against these claims in court."

No statements of defence have been filed and the allegations have not been proven in court.

Fraser said the lawsuit isn't about the money.

"People need to be held accountable. There has been wrongdoing and changes must, must, must be made," she said.

"The changes need to be made so that profits can no longer be put before people's well-being."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 19, 2021.

— By Bill Graveland in Calgary.

SCOTUS VS FISA

Supreme Court asked to give access to secretive court’s work

By MARK SHERMAN

yesterday

 In this Sept. 7, 2018 file photo, then former Solicitor General Theodore Olson testifies on a panel of experts and character witnesses before the Senate Judiciary Committee on behalf of President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh on the final day of the confirmation hearing, on Capitol Hill in Washington. Civil liberties groups are asking the Supreme Court to give the public access to opinions of the secretive court that reviews bulk email collection, warrantless internet searches and other government surveillance programs. The groups say in an appeal filed with the high court Monday that the public has a constitutional right to see significant opinions of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. The appeal was filed by Theodore Olson on behalf of the American Civil Liberties Union and the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Civil liberties groups are asking the Supreme Court to give the public access to opinions of the secretive court that reviews bulk email collection, warrantless internet searches and other government surveillance programs.

The groups say in an appeal filed with the high court Monday that the public has a constitutional right to see significant opinions of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. They also argue that federal courts, not the executive branch, should decide when opinions that potentially affect the privacy of millions of Americans should be made public

The appeal was filed by Theodore Olson on behalf of the American Civil Liberties Union and the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University. Olson is on the Knight institute’s board and was the Bush administration’s top Supreme Court lawyer as the FISA court’s role was expanded after the Sept. 11 attacks.

“You’re talking about judicial decisions here that may affect millions of people. The public needs to know the outlines of what those decisions are and how far they go,” Olson said in an interview with The Associated Press. “Because of my experience with it, I know that government, with the best of intentions, will tend to err on the side of keeping everything secret.”

The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court was established in 1978 to receive applications from the FBI to eavesdrop on people it suspects of being agents of a foreign power, such as potential spies or terrorists. After Sept. 11, Congress expanded the court’s role to consider broad surveillance programs.

In recent decisions, judges ruled that opinions sought by the groups couldn’t be made public, even in censored form, and that they didn’t even have the authority to consider releasing the opinions.

Legislation adopted in 2015 includes a provision that requires the government to consider releasing significant FISA court opinions. But the law doesn’t apply to opinions written before it was enacted and leaves the review process entirely to the executive branch.
The ACLU and Knight institute say the First Amendment’s guarantee of freedom of the press demands greater access.

        A TRANSITION PROGRAM 

          TOWARDS SOCIALISM

                        

FOR CANADA

WATER IS LIFE

US West prepares for possible 1st water shortage declaration
By SAM METZ

4/19/2021

FILE - In this July 28, 2014, file photo, lightning strikes over Lake Mead near Hoover Dam that impounds Colorado River water at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area in Arizona. The Bureau of Reclamation is forecasting first-ever water shortages because of falling levels at Lake Mead and says the reservoir could drop so low that it might not be able to generate electricity at Hoover Dam. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)

CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) — The man-made lakes that store water supplying millions of people in the U.S. West and Mexico are projected to shrink to historic lows in the coming months, dropping to levels that could trigger the federal government’s first-ever official shortage declaration and prompt cuts in Arizona and Nevada.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released 24-month projections this week forecasting that less Colorado River water will cascade down from the Rocky Mountains through Lake Powell and Lake Mead and into the arid deserts of the U.S. Southwest and the Gulf of California. Water levels in the two lakes are expected to plummet low enough for the agency to declare an official shortage for the first time, threatening the supply of Colorado River water that growing cities and farms rely on.

It comes as climate change means less snowpack flows into the river and its tributaries, and hotter temperatures parch soil and cause more river water to evaporate as it streams through the drought-plagued American West.

The agency’s models project Lake Mead will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) for the first time in June 2021. That’s the level that prompts a shortage declaration under agreements negotiated by seven states that rely on Colorado River water: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.

The April projections, however, will not have binding impact. Federal officials regularly issue long-term projections but use those released each August to make decisions about how to allocate river water. If projections don’t improve by then, the Bureau of Reclamation will declare a Level 1 shortage condition. The cuts would be implemented in January.

FILE - In this Oct. 14, 2015, file photo, a riverboat glides through Lake Mead on the Colorado River at Hoover Dam near Boulder City, Nev. The Bureau of Reclamation is forecasting first-ever water shortages because of falling levels at Lake Mead and says the reservoir could drop so low that it might not be able to generate electricity at Hoover Dam.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)

Arizona, Nevada and Mexico have voluntarily given up water under a drought contingency plan for the river signed in 2019. A shortage declaration would subject the two U.S. states to their first mandatory reductions. Both rely on the Colorado River more than any other water source, and Arizona stands to lose roughly 18% of its supply.

Water agency officials say they’re confident their preparation measures, including conservation and seeking out alternative sources, would allow them to withstand cuts if the drought lingers as expected.

“The study, while significant, is not a surprise. It reflects the impacts of the dry and warm conditions across the Colorado River Basin this year, as well as the effects of a prolonged drought that has impacted the Colorado River water supply,” officials from the Arizona Department of Water Resources and Central Arizona Project said in a joint statement.

In Nevada, the agency that supplies water to most of the state has constructed “straws” to draw water from further down in Lake Mead as its levels fall. It also has created a credit system where it can bank recycled water back into the reservoir without having it count toward its allocation.

Colby Pellegrino, director of water resources for the Southern Nevada Water Authority, reassured customers that those preparation measures would insulate them from the effects of cuts. But she warned that more action was needed.

“It is incumbent upon all users of the Colorado River to find ways to conserve,” Pellegrino said in a statement.

FILE - In this Aug. 13, 2020 file photo a bathtub ring of light minerals delineates the high water mark on Lake Mead at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, near Boulder City, Nev. The Bureau of Reclamation is forecasting first-ever water shortages because of falling levels at Lake Mead and says the reservoir could drop so low that it might not be able to generate electricity at Hoover Dam. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)

The Bureau of Reclamation also projected that Lake Mead will drop to the point they worried in the past could threaten electricity generation at Hoover Dam. The hydropower serves millions of customers in Arizona, California and Nevada.

To prepare for a future with less water, the bureau has spent 10 years replacing parts of five of the dam’s 17 turbines that rotate to generate power. Len Schilling, a dam manager with the bureau, said the addition of wide-head turbines allow the dam to operate more efficiently at lower water levels. He said the turbines will be able to generate power almost to a point called “deadpool,” when there won’t be enough water for the dam to function.

But Schilling noted that less water moving through Hoover Dam means less hydropower to go around.

“As the elevation declines at the lake, then our ability to produce power declines as well because we have less water pushing on the turbines,” he said.

The hydropower costs substantially less than the energy sold on the wholesale electricity market because the government charges customers only for the cost of producing it and maintaining the dam.

Lincoln County Power District General Manager Dave Luttrell said infrastructure updates, less hydropower from Hoover Dam and supplemental power from other sources like natural gas raised costs and alarmed customers in his rural Nevada district.

“Rural economies in Arizona and Nevada live and die by the hydropower that is produced at Hoover Dam. It might not be a big deal to NV Energy,” he said of Nevada’s largest utility. “It might be a decimal point to Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. But for Lincoln County, it adds huge impact.”

___

Metz is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

___

This story was first published on April 17, 2021. It was updated on April 19, 2021, to correct that Arizona will lose 18% of its Colorado River allocation if federal officials declare an official shortage, not one-third.