It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Friday, August 22, 2025
Sea-level projections from the 1990s were spot on, Tulane study says
Icebergs in Disko Bay (West Greenland) discharged by the Jakobshavn Isbrae, one of the fastest moving outlet glaciers in the world. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has contributed nearly 2 cm (three quarters of an inch) to global sea-level rise over the past three decades. (Photo by Torbjörn Törnqvist)
Credit: Photo by Torbjörn Törnqvist/Tulane University
Global sea-level change has now been measured by satellites for more than 30 years, and a comparison with climate projections from the mid-1990s shows that they were remarkably accurate, according to two Tulane University researchers whose findings were published in Earth’s Future, an open-access journal published by the American Geophysical Union.
“The ultimate test of climate projections is to compare them with what has played out since they were made, but this requires patience – it takes decades of observations,” said lead author Torbjörn Törnqvist, Vokes Geology Professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.
“We were quite amazed how good those early projections were, especially when you think about how crude the models were back then, compared to what is available now,” Törnqvist said. “For anyone who questions the role of humans in changing our climate, here is some of the best proof that we have understood for decades what is really happening, and that we can make credible projections.”
Co-author Sönke Dangendorf, David and Jane Flowerree Associate Professor in the Department of River-Coastal Science and Engineering, said that while it is encouraging to see the quality of early projections, today’s challenge is to translate global information into projections tailored to the specific needs of stakeholders in places like south Louisiana.
“Sea level doesn’t rise uniformly – it varies widely. Our recent study of this regional variability and the processes behind it relies heavily on data from NASA’s satellite missions and NOAA’s ocean monitoring programs,” he said. “Continuing these efforts is more important than ever, and essential for informed decision-making to benefit the people living along the coast.”
A new era of monitoring global sea-level change took off when satellites were launched in the early 1990s to measure the height of the ocean surface. This showed that the rate of global sea-level rise since that time has averaged about one eighth of an inch per year. Only more recently, it became possible to detect that the rate of global sea-level rise is accelerating.
When NASA researchers demonstrated in October 2024 that the rate has doubled during this 30-year period, the time was right to compare this finding with projections that were made during the mid-1990s, independent of the satellite measurements.
In 1996, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published an assessment report soon after the satellite-based sea-level measurements had started. It projected that the most likely amount of global sea-level rise over the next 30 years would be almost 8 cm (three inches), remarkably close to the 9 cm that has occurred. But it also underestimated the role of melting ice sheets by more than 2 cm (about one inch).
At the time, little was known about the role of warming ocean waters and how that could destabilize marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from below. Ice flow from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the ocean has also been faster than foreseen.
The past difficulties of predicting the behavior of ice sheets also contain a message for the future. Current projections of future sea-level rise consider the possibility, albeit uncertain and of low likelihood, of catastrophic ice-sheet collapse before the end of this century. Low-lying coastal regions in the United States would be particularly affected if such a collapse occurs in Antarctica.
The paper was co-authored by colleagues from the University of Oslo and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Caltech.
This study found that, in U.S. adults, disaster-induced displacement from home was associated with increased odds of depression and anxiety symptoms, with the highest odds among those who never returned home. There is an urgent need to address mental health care for populations displaced by natural disasters, particularly socially vulnerable populations.
Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Ther W. Aung, PhD, email twa21@case.edu.
Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.
About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication.
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JAMA Network Open
Cardiovascular health at the intersection of race and gender in Medicare fee for service
JAMA Health Forum
About The Study:
This cross-sectional study found that Asian and Pacific Islander, Black, and Hispanic transgender and gender diverse beneficiaries had a high prevalence of cardiovascular-related conditions and had an elevated prevalence of several conditions, attributable to the intersection of gender, race, and ethnicity. Medicare should use the tools at its disposal to support the health of transgender and gender diverse beneficiaries.
Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Gray Babbs, MPH, email gray_babbs@brown.edu.
Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.
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About JAMA Health Forum: JAMA Health Forum is an international, peer-reviewed, online, open access journal that addresses health policy and strategies affecting medicine, health and health care. The journal publishes original research, evidence-based reports and opinion about national and global health policy; innovative approaches to health care delivery; and health care economics, access, quality, safety, equity and reform. Its distribution will be solely digital and all content will be freely available for anyone to read.
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AI in Agriculture Symposium, hackathon set for September in Fayetteville
Inaugural event features eight experts from academia and industry
University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
Samuel B. Fernandes is an assistant professor of agricultural statistics and quantitative genetics for the Center for Agricultural Data Analytics and the department of crop, soil, and environmntal sciences. He has organized the center's inaugural AI in Ag Symposium to take place Sept. 15 online and in-person at the Don Tyson Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1371 W. Altheimer Drive, in Fayetteville, Arkansas.
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The inaugural AI in Agriculture Symposium, hosted by the Center for Agricultural Data Analytics within the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, will highlight the latest in AI research and real-world applications for agriculture on Sept. 15.
The free event, featuring artificial intelligence and automation experts from academia and industry, will be offered online and in-person at the Don Tyson Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1371 W. Altheimer Drive, in Fayetteville. The experiment station is the research arm of the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
“AI is present in every field, and we would like to make sure our ag students and researchers have the opportunity to interact with people at the forefront of this field to foster collaborations and awareness of the potential of AI in agriculture,” said Samuel Fernandes, organizer of the event and an assistant professor of agricultural statistics and quantitative genetics with the experiment station.
The AI in Agricultural Symposium begins at 8:30 a.m. with a light breakfast and opening remarks from Jean-François Meullenet, senior associate vice president for agriculture-research and director of the experiment station.
Sessions begin at 9 a.m. Lunch will be provided at noon, and the event concludes at 5 p.m., followed by a reception and poster session until 7 p.m.
Featured speakers include:
Girish Chowdhary, associate professor of agricultural and biological engineering, and computer science with the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Rohit Sanjay, automation developer with Tyson Foods.
Rich Adams, assistant professor of agricultural statistics for the Center for Agricultural Data Analytics, and the entomology and plant pathology department in the Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences at the University of Arkansas.
Aranyak Goswami, assistant professor and computational biologist with the Center for Agricultural Data Analytics, and the animal science and poultry science departments for the Division of Agriculture and Bumpers College.
Nicholas Ames, principal data scientist for Bayer Crop Science.
Erin Gilbert, staff data steward for Bayer Crop Science.
Alon Arad, director of artificial intelligence and analytics for Walmart Global Tech.
In addition to the symposium, Fernandes also highlighted the inaugural AI in Ag Hackathon, which gives graduate students from the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville and the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff a chance to address real-world scenarios commonly faced in the ag industry. The hackathon takes place Sept. 13-14 in the Mullins Library on the University of Arkansas campus in Fayetteville.
Fernandes said that while participants can win prizes for developing the best solutions, “most importantly, the top three teams will be given 5 minutes to present their solution at the Arkansas AI in Ag Symposium.”
Interested graduate students can find more details on the AI in Agriculture Symposium event page. The AI in Ag Hackathonisa collaboration between the Center for Agricultural Data Analytics, the Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences, and Bayer Crop Science.
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three system campuses.
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture is an equal opportunity institution. If you require a reasonable accommodation to participate or need materials in another format, please contact Samuel Fernandes at samuelbf@uark.edu or 479-575-5677 as soon as possible. Dial 711 for Arkansas Relay.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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Calcium tests in poultry offer chance for improved feed efficiency
Poultry nutritionists show results in calcium bioavailability, digestibility tests connected
University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
Ben Parsons, an assistant professor of poultry nutrition with the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, and colleagues in the Center of Excellence for Poultry Science compared the results of two calcium availability tests — a classic approach and a newer, speedier test — and found that both tests offer reliable results that can help poultry producers optimize calcium digestibility.
Credit: U of A System Division of Agriculture photo
By John Lovett
University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — One percentage point of feed conversion loss in large-scale poultry production can cause millions in lost revenue, so even small improvements — like fine-tuning a single nutrient in feed — can make a big difference.
Calcium plays a key role in poultry feed conversion. In addition to bone density, enzyme activation, muscle contraction, and other critical functions, calcium affects the efficiency of turning food into weight gain. But in broilers, it’s not just the amount of calcium that matters. What really counts is bioavailability: how much of that nutrient the bird can actually use.
Accurately measuring calcium bioavailability has been tricky for poultry scientists.
“The biggest challenge we have is analytically picking up the calcium content of our samples accurately,” said Ben Parsons, an assistant professor of poultry nutrition with the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, the research arm of the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, and the Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences. “Our main calcium sources — dicalcium phosphate and limestone — are rocks. You may get a big piece or a little one in the sample, and it causes variability.”
A new study by Parsons and his colleagues in the Center of Excellence for Poultry Science compared the results of two calcium availability tests — a classic approach and a newer, speedier test — and found that both tests offer reliable results that can help poultry producers optimize calcium digestibility.
Arkansas has consistently ranked as the third-largest producer of broiler chickens in the nation, producing more than 7.4 billion pounds of broiler meat in 2023, according to the latest Arkansas Agricultural Profile. Bringing in $6.5 billion, broiler production represents about 45 percent of all agricultural cash farm receipts in Arkansas.
In the quest to formulate optimum-performance poultry feed, poultry nutritionists have been looking at not just how much calcium is in the feed but how much is digested and absorbed by the bird.
Currently, the feed is formulated to meet a total calcium requirement in the diet, which does not account for differences in calcium availability among sources. Even among different sources of the same ingredient, calcium availability can vary due to factors such as solubility and particle size.
Value in the millions
Limestone is the most common calcium source in poultry diets, Parsons said. It’s inexpensive and widely available, but its digestible calcium content can range from as low as 20 percent to nearly 80 percent. To be safe, feed producers often add more than needed — but too much calcium can reduce the availability of other nutrients, such as phosphorus, and may even worsen disease challenges, Parsons explained.
“Some recent work is showing that excess calcium can exacerbate disease and pathogen challenges,” he said. “We don’t understand how right now, but we know that there’s value in trying to get more precise in how we’re meeting the animal’s calcium requirement.”
The value could be worth millions. As Parsons explained, feed conversion ratio is a numerical value that can have a big effect even when it’s a small number due to the high volume of birds being grown by the largest poultry producers.
“If you have a 1-point performance loss, that equates on a yearly basis to around $20 million to $24 million,” Parsons said of large-scale poultry farms. “Small things that impair performance could end up costing a lot of money because that little reduction in performance gets amplified.”
Two ways to measure calcium availability
Parsons and Rebekah Drysdale, Ph.D. poultry science student in Bumpers College at the University of Arkansas, conducted studies showing that a relatively new and speedy method of measuring calcium digestibility in the small intestines reflects results of an older and more time-consuming method of measuring bioavailability using ash or mineral content of a chicken’s leg bone.
Drysdale developed the method to measure calcium bioavailability using bone ash in modern broiler chickens as part of her master’s thesis, Parsons noted.
“The bone ash method is a classic approach that has been around for decades, mainly for trace minerals and phosphorus but very recently we’ve developed a regression approach for bone ash to measure calcium,” Parsons said. “Our goal was to compare it to the new method, and if we could show they are similar, then we could move forward in using these tools to evaluate a lot of different calcium samples.”
The newer method is called the “apparent ileal digestibility test” and involves collecting the partially digested feed known as digesta in the ileum, which is the end of the small intestines. The difference in calcium that was in the feed and what was left after digestion in the dried digesta can then be calculated.
While the apparent ileal digestibility test can be done in 24 to 72 hours with as few as one diet, the bone ash test process takes two weeks before the nutrients are absorbed in the bone and twice as many diets are needed compared with the newer digestibility test.
Results of the study indicate that the newer, more rapid digestibility test can be used to assess calcium availability in feedstuffs. Also, relative calcium bioavailability values based on bone ash content can also be used to predict or estimate calcium digestibility values.
Parsons said while the digestibility test is useful in providing direct measurements of calcium availability, tests for calcium bioavailability based on bone ash can be helpful to confirm results from digestibility tests while also eliminating analytical errors. The calcium bioavailability based on bone ash will also account for absorption, transportation and usage within the body, which offers additional insights beyond absorption or digestibility, Parsons added.
Finding the ‘sweet spot’
Parsons said a long-term goal for poultry nutritionists is to move from total calcium requirements in poultry feed to digestible calcium levels.
“There’s a big challenge in that because you’ve really got to have a good robust data set or database of calcium availability of different sources,” Parsons said.
With varying levels of calcium digestibility in different sources of limestone, Parsons said both methods of testing can help poultry producers screen calcium sources that are causing problems and find sources with a “sweet spot” of digestibility based on solubility rates.
“You want a limestone that’s in the middle of this solubility distribution,” Parsons said. “If you get something that solubilizes rapidly in the GI tract, that’s actually problematic and leads to reduced availability of other nutrients like phosphorus. If you get it solubilizing too slowly, the bird can’t use it.”
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three system campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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Broiler chick held by Rebekah Drysdale, a Ph.D. student in the poultry science department for the Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences at the University of Arkansas. Drysdale and her adviser, Assistant Professor Ben Parsons, conducted studies that can help poultry producers optimize calcium digestibility.
