BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Istanbul “lawfare” echoes Brazil playbook as Imamoglu trial mirrors elimination of Lula
The ongoing trial involving Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu took a cinematic turn lately after defence arguments framed the proceedings as a systematic “lawfare” campaign mirroring events in the political odyssey of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
During a hearing held on April 22 at the Silivri prison courtroom, Mehmet Pehlivan delivered a stinging comparison between the Turkish judiciary’s actions and the “Lava Jato” (Car Wash) operation that once upended Brazilian democracy.
Pehlivan is a key member of Imamoglu’s legal team, who has himself been imprisoned since June last year. He is standing trial as a defendant in the same case.
On March 9, the first hearing of the Imamoglu trial was held. Court officials wrote in the trial papers that the target is to complete the trial within 4,600 days (13 years). Hearings continue every day.
Liquidation by lawfare
“World legal history is full of efforts to liquidate political rivals using the judiciary,” Pehlivan, who refuses to speak as a defendant and describes himself as a lawyer of Imamoglu, told the court.
“What we are experiencing today is a carbon copy of the ‘lawfare’ methods applied to Lula,” he added.
From the courtroom to the justice ministy
The crux of Pehlivan’s argument rests on the striking career trajectories of a prosecutor and a judge involved in cases brought against Imamoglu.
In Brazil, Sergio Moro was a judge who led the crusade against Lula before joining the cabinet of Jair Bolsonaro, who won an election that Lula was barred from entering.
“Bolsonaro’s first act was to appoint Moro, the man who convicted Lula, as his justice minister,” Pehlivan noted.
The parallel is not lost in Turkey. Akin Gurlek, a former Istanbul chief prosecutor who launched the operations against Imamoglu, was in February appointed justice minister by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Corruption probes of the century
Pehlivan argued that the checklist of similarities suggests a universal playbook for sidelining popular opposition figures.
Moro branded his investigation as the “corruption probe of the century”. Gurlek did the same.
Sons, lawyers, confessors, party headquarters and Trump
Just as Lula’s son was embroiled in legal proceedings, Imamoglu’s son now finds himself listed as a defendant.
In both cases, the primary target’s legal counsel, Pehlivan in the Imamoglu prosecution, were arrested as suspects. They were both accused of exerting pressure on other defendants as regards organised crime allegations.
All the accusations in both cases depended on statements from witnesses who had turned state's evidence. Such people are called “confessors” in Turkey.
Both Lula and Imamoglu were also accused of capturing the headquarters of the political parties that they are members of.
Similarly to Erdogan, Bolsonaro is a close ally of Donald Trump, who was the president of the US at the time of the Lula operation.
Two octopuses
Erdogan himself has characterised the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) case as an investigation into “the arms of an octopus”, a phrase eerily reminiscent of the “octopus” labelling used in Brazil to justify extraordinary judicial measures.
Another coincidence is that Lula’s home was raided by hundreds of police in March 2016. Imamoglu faced a similar large-scale law enforcement deployment during the legal peril that engulfed him in March 2025. He was imprisoned after an early-morning raid on his Istanbul residence.
Differences
Speaking in the trial, Pehlivan suggested that while there was no cancellation of a university degree held by Lula during his travails that was only only because he did not have one.
In Turkey, a candidate is obliged to hold a university diploma to qualify for a run at the presidency. Imamoglu held a qualifying degree gained in 1994, but amidst the multi-faceted operation mounted against him, Istanbul University cancelled it on highly dubious grounds.
“In Brazil, a diploma is reportedly not required for the presidency, but there are those who cancel them, of course. [Vladimir] Putin’s administration [in Russia] cancelled the diploma of his main rival, Alexei Navalny,” Pehlivan reflected, addressing the court.
The funnier side of the diploma affairs includes the fact that Erdogan has never released for public scrutiny any university degree or any other kind of graduation document. The election regulator in Turkey, the YSK, however, always claims to have received the required documented qualification from him prior to each election.
Erdogan is no Bolsonaro unsteady in the saddle
Pehlivan also highlighted how Lula was imprisoned and barred from the 2018 election before he was eventually cleared of all charges in 2021. The UN Human Rights Committee and Brazil’s Supreme Court flagged the bias in his trial.
The similarities actually end here as there is no Turkish or international legal authority that could challenge the rulings dictated by Erdogan.
Do not die till 2033
Lula was elected president in 2022. He is still in office today. As Imamoglu faces a potential political ban that would prevent him from challenging Erdogan even as the next presidential cycle nears its end, his legal team is betting that international and domestic audiences will see the “IBB Case” as an outright injustice.
As a local remake of a Brazilian drama, the convicted man is supposed to eventually take over the presidential post. This argument suggests that Imamoglu has already sacrificed the upcoming elections to be held in June 2028 at the latest. The possibility, meanwhile, that a snap poll will be held in 2027 is high.
Since the June 2015 poll, all election results have conveniently provided Erdogan with a tiny majority, giving officials the chance to claim Turkey has a democracy that is alive and well. It is a foregone conclusion that he will again declare he has won with a very slight majority in the 2027 or 2028 poll.
Imamoglu challenged the "tiny majority" announcement made in favour of the Erdogan-backed candidate after the March 2019 Istanbul city election. He stubbornly stuck to his contentions, kept a close eye on the collected ballots and managed to take over the post with a re-run election held in June 2019.
In the upcoming presidential poll, he was supposed to achieve a repeat of the 2019 scenario. However, he was eliminated from the field.
Depending on whether the poll takes place in 2027 or 2028, the subsequent presidential election will be held in either 2032 or 2033, when Erdogan will be 78 or 79 years-old. Imamoglu can retain some hope that he may one day run for the presidency.
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