Wednesday, July 08, 2026

What Is Humanitarian Education And Does It Help Build Peace? – Analysis

July 8, 2026
By Chloe Bruce

Key Takeaways

Humanitarian Education Goes Beyond Access — It provides schooling in emergencies while also teaching peace, resilience, psychosocial support, and humanitarian values to help children recover from conflict and displacement.

It Plays a Vital Role in Crises — Education in emergencies protects children from exploitation, offers normality and hope, and is a top priority for children in conflict zones, yet it receives only 3% of humanitarian aid.

Significant Limitations Remain — Chronic underfunding, short-term projects, donor biases, neutrality constraints, and weak long-term evaluation limit its ability to build lasting peace and sustainable education systems.


Humanitarian organizations invest in education to promote safety, resilience, and social cohesion, but researchers continue to debate its long-term impact on conflict and human well-being.

Humanitarian education refers to educational initiatives developed or supported by humanitarian organizations to reduce suffering, protect vulnerable populations, and help communities recover from conflict and disaster. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees defines humanitarian education as an initiative that “is implemented in a humanitarian context and is inclusive of refugee and other marginalized learners.”

With wars and conflicts becoming increasingly common in the 21st century, education has taken on greater significance. According to a 2025 United Nations article, of the 234 million school-age children affected by conflict worldwide, 85 million are completely out of school. Helena Murseli, global lead of the UNICEF Education in Emergencies team, called the situation “unprecedented.” “These are not isolated incidents. They are part of a global pattern of escalating conflict that affects children’s right to learn,” she said.

There is an urgent need to help develop spaces to provide a caring environment, especially for children experiencing conflict and displacement. “Refugee children deserve an education of quality that will last them a lifetime. Education must be an integral part of our response to emergencies, not an afterthought that falls gradually into neglect,” states the UN Refugee Agency.

Humanitarian education encompasses a wide range of educational goals, teaching methods, and pedagogical approaches. To understand its effectiveness, this article examines its purpose and ultimate goal, its link to the humanitarian mandate to reduce conflict and human suffering, and, most importantly, whether it has achieved its objectives.

Why Humanitarian Education Is Important

Using education to develop a peaceful society has been foundational to the concept of schooling throughout human history. Two of history’s most prominent teachers, Confucius and Plato, both spoke of the purpose of education as creating “harmonious societies.” Over time, education was institutionalized, first by religious bodies and then by political ones. Colonialism rooted these educational structures worldwide. A 2023 Brookings article by Ghulam Omar Qargha and Emily Markovich Morris, from the Center for Universal Education, states, “In most countries under colonial influence, the colonizing forces used modern schooling to develop a workforce in the colony, spread culture and values, control the local populations from opposing colonial rule, and create a sense of national unity among colonized peoples.” Those purposes still rigidly define mainstream education today.

In the 20th century, following two catastrophic wars that engulfed large parts of the world, alternative models developed to recenter the role of education in nurturing peaceful, nonviolent societies. The United Nations created UNESCO to ensure a “peaceful coexistence between nations,” with the motto that “[s]ince wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defenses of peace must be constructed.” This helped pave the way for international organizations to highlight the importance of education, not only to sustain peace in conflict areas but also as a means to build a safe and nurturing environment for children in these countries and regions.

On a global scale, humanitarian educational endeavors focus on highlighting the value of education and ensuring universal access to it. Humanitarian education comes under the umbrella of Education for All (EFA). “Education for all is a principle advocating that all children, young people and adults should have access to quality education, regardless of background or circumstance,” the UNESCO website explains. The EFA declaration affirms that “education can help ensure a safer, healthier, more prosperous and environmentally sound world, while simultaneously contributing to social, economic and cultural progress, tolerance and international cooperation.” This shows that the international community’s push for wider participation in education stems from the idea that a more educated world is a more peaceful one.


There are, however, several limitations to this idea and its implementation. As UNESCO notes in its blog about the links between education, violence, and well-being, despite evidence that higher levels of basic education are associated with reduced national violent conflict, this claim remains ambiguous.

Although the number of people who receive at least a basic education has reversed since 1800, from one in five receiving a basic education to one in five who have not received any formal education, according to 2020 figures analyzed by Our World in Data, there is no way to prove this is a direct result of humanitarian education initiatives. The sharp uptick in education post-World War II suggests that the global shift in perceptions toward education, of which the UN was an integral part, has contributed to increased access to education. Other important developments include the recognition of education as a human right, which helped pave the way for another key humanitarian educational concept: education in emergencies (EiE). In her article in the Comparative Education Review, Julia C. Lurch emphasizes that “rights-based conceptions of education provided a powerful cultural frame that helped legitimate greater attention to EiE.” Education in emergencies has since become another pillar in humanitarian organizational responses to conflict.

Girls are often disproportionately affected in humanitarian emergencies. According to the UN Girls’ Education Initiative(UNGEI), girls are among those most excluded from education during crises and are especially vulnerable to dropping out of school. To cope with this situation, the UN argues that “Education in emergencies should become an integral part of a long-term strategy to develop inclusive education systems in countries affected by armed conflict.”

The Inter-Agency Network for Education in Emergencies (INEE), establishedfollowing the 2000 EFA conference in Dakar, promotes and helps to guide frameworks and approaches to EiE. The INEE states that providing education to children impacted by conflict helps reduce their suffering: “Education in emergencies provides physical, psychosocial, and cognitive protection that can sustain and save lives.” It further states that when parents and children living in conflict situations were asked what they most needed, they said they wanted to continue their education. “According to 8,749 children caught up in 17 different emergencies—ranging from conflict to protracted crises and disasters—who took part in 16 studies by eight organizations covering 17 different emergencies, 99 percent of children in crises see education as a priority,” states the INEE.

Unfortunately, education programs are facing dramatic cuts. “Today, only 3 percent of humanitarian aid goes to education. Yet the children most in need of a good education are also at greatest risk of having their learning disrupted, whether by conflict, violence, pandemics, climate, or other crises,” according to the World Bank.

Putting the long-term effects of this lack of funding into perspective, Murseli said, “We’re talking about 234 million children’s future and ultimately, global stability and development. The cost of inaction far exceeds the investment needed to get every crisis-affected child learning.”

An article in the Human Rights Education Review shows that humanitarian education not only teaches children basic subject concepts but is also essential for teaching school-age children how to exercise their human rights while respecting the rights of others.

Restoring Access to Education

Humanitarian organizations’ efforts to promote education go beyond merely advancing the idea of education; they also involve physically restoring access to education in disaster zones. For example, UNICEF, the World Food Program, and Save the Children, funded by the World Bank, helped rebuild Yemen’s education system between 2021 and 2024, following decades of instability, conflict, and famine. While there is not sufficient evidence of this project’s success, it aimed to rehabilitate 1,000 schools across Yemen, pay teachers incentives to ensure attendance, build rural teaching capacity, provide learners with equipment and healthy snacks, and train teachers to improve their ability to teach literacy and numeracy.

“Yemen’s education system continues to face immense challenges. More than 2.5 million children are currently out of school, while 2,375 schools have been damaged or destroyed, severely limiting access to safe learning environments across the country. To support the recovery of the sector, the National Education Sector Plan 2024–2030 was launched in 2025, defining national priorities and guiding international support for rebuilding Yemen’s education system,” states an April 2026 UNESCO report.

According to research by the Global Education Cluster, a forum for coordination and collaboration on education in humanitarian crises, the affordability of educational supplies and the lack of schools in the community are key barriers to accessing education. There, meanwhile, seems to be a division of opinion on the effectiveness of such educational initiatives.

As Maha Shuayb, director of the Center for Lebanese Studies, explains in her article for The New Humanitarian, educational initiatives do not always succeed. Her review of EiE for Syrian refugees displaced in Lebanon found that the Lebanese state education system could only accommodate 50 percent of school-age Syrian refugees, which resulted in learners being split into morning and afternoon shifts, with the afternoon cohort experiencing fewer positive outcomes than the morning shift. This resulted from the incompatibility between the educational needs of displaced people and the Lebanese school system.

Due to national regulations, lessons could only be taught by Lebanese citizens; students had to learn some subjects in French or English, even though most spoke Arabic as a first language. International donors funded this initiative and did not sustainably improve the system to build long-term capacity. “Ten years later, the results speak for themselves. Syrian refugee enrollment in Lebanese state schools is below 30 percent, with less than 4 percent progressing to secondary education.” She argues that this approach to providing education in emergencies is inherently flawed, as “85 percent of the refugee population is hosted in low- and middle-income countries, where educational systems may already be strained: Enrolling children in a struggling system is extremely challenging.”

On the other hand, the EiE practitioners insist that this education saves lives. In a working paper, Christopher Talbot, who was a co-founder of the Inter-Agency Network for Education in Emergencies, argues that “it also sustains life by giving children a sense of the restoration of normality, familiar routine and hope for the future, all of which are vital for mitigating the psychosocial impact of violence and displacement for individuals and whole communities.” Accessing education and reestablishing safe routines can therefore vastly reduce human suffering at a time when children are especially vulnerable to situations resulting in child marriage, child labor, and recruitment into groups supporting violence. Yona Nestel, a senior education adviser at Plan International Canada, writes that “Education in emergencies is often a humanitarian afterthought, even though it has been demonstrated as the most effective way to normalize children’s lives and help them recover from trauma.”


Talbot also states that being enrolled in education can help children avoid danger: “Children and adolescents who are not in school are at greater risk of violent attack and rape, and of recruitment into fighting forces, prostitution and life-threatening, often criminal activities.” He also claims that education initiatives can help restore peace in conflict situations and disaster-affected societies by preparing for reconstruction and developing economically and socially valuable skills.

In his 2011 article on EiE Best Practice, Phillip Price points to examples of learning about landmine awareness and sexual health, and how these lessons reduce death and injury later on in life. This highlights the other, arguably more important, side of humanitarian education initiatives: the content of education. Despite EFA and EiE’s focus on expanding access to education, humanitarian organizations often do more than just build capacity to educate; they deliver their own bespoke education curricula aimed at reducing human suffering and building more peaceful societies.

Restoring access to education is only one part of humanitarian education. Once children and communities return to classrooms or other learning spaces, humanitarian organizations face another question: What should be taught? Beyond literacy and numeracy, many organizations have concluded that education in crisis settings should also help learners cope with trauma, rebuild trust, resolve conflict, and strengthen social cohesion. This has led humanitarian organizations to develop specialized educational programs that draw on peace education and other learner-centered pedagogies.


Shaping Peace Education

Humanitarian organizations generally pursue these broader educational goals through three complementary approaches: training new humanitarian practitioners, teaching humanitarian principles and international humanitarian law, and adapting peace education through established learner-centered pedagogies.

Humanitarian organizations and educational institutions teach how to do humanitarian work. This includes learning a variety of practical skills, such as international law, frameworks, project management, and logistics, while instilling humanitarian values like accountability, trust, and fairness. A substantial amount of this learning takes place online, so it is accessible to a wide range of practitioners worldwide. Evaluations of some of these courses, including a humanitarian leadership diploma for practitioners in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and a course run by Médecins Sans Frontières in Italy, found them effective at building humanitarian knowledge and capacity among participants.

The extent to which such capacity building leads to peace in the region has not been clearly assessed. But it is considered better for the sustainability of humanitarian work among local populations. Scholar Séverine Autesserre has writtenseveral books highlighting the importance of localization in humanitarian work and its relationship to genuine, long-lasting peace.

A key part of the curriculum for these courses focuses on developing an understanding of humanitarian principles. They teach external practitioners and staff members to internalize values such as egalitarianism, respect, and empathy through practical skills like active listening and problem-solving. These skills are also taught to younger people through educational programs, such as the Youth as Agents of Behavioral Change (YABC) offered by the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). This program aims to teach young people “critical thinking, dropping bias, collaborative negotiation, mediation, and enhancing personal resilience,” along with other practical skills similar to those taught to humanitarian practitioners. This has led to the establishment of the final pillar of humanitarian education: teaching peace to the general population. Organizations use “peace education” pedagogy, combined with their experience teaching humanitarian skills and values, to develop learners’ willingness and instill the ability to be peaceful.


Peace education developed alongside alternative educational theories in the 20th century. While Montessori and other educational approaches promote education that centers on the needs of the learner, peace education focuses on the needs of peacebuilding. As Yi Yu and Michael Wyness explain in their journal Social Sciences, “Across socio-political contexts, peace education may target micro-level interpersonal skills, such as conflict resolution, or macro-level societal change, including altering collective narratives, breaking down stereotypes, and promoting human rights.”

Rather than representing a single distinct pedagogy, humanitarian education combines multiple leading learning theories to refine peace education into approaches that help rebuild societies after conflict and disaster. It combinesaspects of psychosocial competencies and social-emotional learning (SEL) pedagogy to develop learners’ self-esteem and psychological resilience. Humanitarian education inculcates these pedagogies, believing that establishing a strong sense of self, combined with a deep understanding of emotions, is vital to building empathy and healthy coping mechanisms in the face of extreme stress.

It also seeks to teach people how to manage the trauma they’ve experienced, which is often a source of perpetuating conflict. It draws on other pedagogies, such as intercultural learning, to build the capacity to understand opposing views, aiming to bridge political or ideological differences between groups.

Does Humanitarian Education Work?

The YABC program has been implemented in several countries since its release in 2008. Still, aside from qualitative accounts of how the learning personally impacted some participants, there has been little evaluation of its impact on the development of peaceful societies. Beyond this program, the IFRC has developed educational programs aimed at teaching international humanitarian law since the early 2000s, with other organizations such as the British Red Cross and the Canadian Red Cross. According to testimonies in a 2025 blog post, IHL education helped develop empathy and understanding among students, especially toward people from refugee backgrounds. However, to really understand if humanitarian education is effective in building peace, these initiatives need to be thoroughly assessed.

Save the Children ran a program in Syria in 2022 called “The Summer Club,” which was structured as a “12-session child resilience program for… 200 children. The child resilience program included activities in problem-solving, improving knowledge of the self, healthy expression of feelings, effective communication, and identifying and dealing with abuse and bullying.” This program was likely modeled after Save the Children’s longstanding Youth Resilience Program. In investigating the efficacy of this project, Save the Children found high engagement in the program, with “99 percent attending more than 70 percent of all activities. Facilitators’ observations also noted that the children were deeply engaged during the sessions.” They also analyzed how far learning goals were achieved, stating that “100 percent out of the 65 percent of targeted children had better awareness of child protection threats and skills to deal with them, when comparing pre-test to post-test at the end of Summer Club.”


They also conducted third-party monitoring to determine that “Summer Club had increased their ability to understand school subjects and that their performance at school had improved from participating in Summer Club.” This program was initiated by Save the Children Denmark in collaboration with a local partner. According to them, while the local partner was heavily involved and provided continuous feedback, there is little information available on long-term outcomes or the program’s sustainability. A wider evaluation of how the education of these 200 children impacted broader peace in the region was not conducted.

We can compare this small program to a larger group of IRC initiatives in the same region. The “Ahlan Simsim” project has reached “over 1.3 million children and caregivers with direct services for families across Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria.” It involves a structured 12-week intervention in which children watch an Arabic-language version of Sesame Street to learn social-emotional skills and improve literacy and numeracy. The show was called Ahlan Simsim or “Welcome Sesame” in Arabic. According to the IRC, their study “found that watching the Ahlan Simsim show had a significant impact on children’s foundational social-emotional skills, such as identifying emotions and applying coping strategies.”

They also broadcast the television show across the MENA region, reaching another 23 million children. IRC claims that “Watching Ahlan Simsim helps children identify emotions of fear and frustration and teaches them coping strategies, like pausing to breathe in emotionally stressful situations. … [N]ew characters join familiar faces like Elmo and Cookie Monster to teach children important lessons and promote healthy early childhood development. These new characters are designed to be relatable to children living in vulnerable situations.”

NYU Global TIES for Children studied some of the Ahlan Simsim programs. One of the programs called “Reach Up and Learn” targeted caregivers of children under the age of three. “In this program, trained health outreach staff called caregivers to share their regular curriculum of health tips, and integrated into this 7–10 minutes of Ahlan Simsimparenting guidance per week. While researchers found no significant impact on parenting behaviors, pointing to the limitations of a short, once-weekly, audio-only interaction, they did find the program reduced caregiver depressive symptoms.” This candid sharing of results helps to understand how these programs work to improve learning outcomes. In the case of another program evaluated, which involved remote teaching via WhatsApp, “[r]esearchers found that this program produced statistically and developmentally significant impacts on children, particularly for literacy, numeracy, and social-emotional skills. The impact was comparable to global studies of year-long, in-person preschool programs.”

These studies provide “new evidence that innovations in educational media and in leveraging caregivers’ support of learning can improve children’s holistic development,” said Hirokazu Yoshikawa, former co-director of Global TIES for Children.

The effectiveness of using media to teach peace or well-being is corroboratedby studies of peace education projects conducted in Sierra Leone during and after the civil war. In their analysis, Yi and Wyness found that one of the most successful peace education initiatives was a series of TV and radio shows produced by Search for Common Ground. Structured programs led by the state or the UN, and those taking place in educational institutions, often had limited success due to a lack of scale, insufficient teacher motivation, and a lack of relevance of the content to the specific context. Non-formal education initiatives, however, seemed more successful at fostering reconciliation.

The Limitations of Humanitarian Education

There are several underlying issues with humanitarian approaches to peace. One of the most apparent assumptions is that most conflicts stem not from imbalances of power or resources but from a lack of mutual understanding. As the authors of a 2025 article published in the International Journal of Lifelong Education explain, a focus solely on promoting dialogue between conflicting parties is flawed. “This approach has the underlying assumptions that conflict primarily emerges from misunderstanding or lack of recognition, and reconciliation is both possible and desirable if dialogue is fostered.” The article points out that “peace education can no longer rest on the post-1945 model of (only) cultivating diplomacy, pacifism, compromise, and reconciliation under the presumption that peace is humanity’s default state. Rather, a reconceptualization of peace education is required that: resists both naïve appeasement and creeping militarization; and instead anchors itself in justice, international law, and democratic resilience.”

Current thinking points out that humanitarian education and peace education focus on promoting negative rather than positive peace. As a 2026 study published in the Educational Research Review explains, scholar Johan Galtung’s theory of positive peace “emphasizes the importance of addressing not only direct violence, but also structural and cultural violence, to achieve sustainable peace.” Arguably, by focusing solely on teaching empathy, resilience, and dialogue, humanitarian education initiatives fail to achieve positive peace.

Often, this reluctance to draw attention to the political, social, or economic inequalities that people caught up in or actively participating in conflict face stems from a desire (or imperative) to remain neutral and impartial. The Red Cross approach to humanitarian education mainly focuses on teaching about IHL to maintain neutrality. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) even states that “[The exploring humanitarian law program] is not explicitly concerned with peace, tolerance, mutual understanding, prevention of violence or conflict resolution. It emphasizes the positive changes in attitude stemming from ideas related to respect for life and human dignity, civic responsibility, and solidarity.”

The Red Cross approach helps ensure that its materials, and therefore its values, are taught in places where peace education may be censored, and focuses on creating materials that local teachers and practitioners can share in schools or communities.

According to international humanitarian law practitioner Sobhi Tawil, teaching IHL is less controversial than teaching human rights, as some divided societies consider lessons on human rights to be aligned with one side of the conflict. National Red Cross organizations function as humanitarian auxiliariesto their respective governments and are often accountable to prevailing public opinion. As an example, there has been previous backlash toward British Red Cross educational materials, which positively supported anti-racism education.


Humanitarian education initiatives that avoid discussing the causes or symptoms of conflict only alienate learners who are suffering real injustices. The Red Cross has lost significant legitimacy over the past few years, particularly with Ukrainians who accuse the wider Red Cross of complicity due to the actions of the Russian and Belarusian Red Cross organizations. In many ways, attempts to remain neutral and impartial in education are doomed to failure. According to Critical Pedagogy, a theory pioneered by Brazilian educator Paulo Freire, “schools typically serve the interests of those who have power in a society by, usually unintentionally, perpetuating unquestioned norms for relationships, expectations, and behaviors.” As an International Institution with close ties to Western powers, a humanitarian organization risks reinforcing the problems that cause conflict.

Another issue is that foreign educators are often sent to poor countries to carry out humanitarian work and are disconnected from the local population, having a limited understanding of the complex social context. Sometimes they don’t speak local languages at all, or at a very basic level, according to Junru Bia’s article for the Network for Strategic Analysis. The temporary nature of their contract also means they are not around long enough to do the painstaking work required. As Michael N. Barnett explains in “The Humanitarian Club” in the book Global Governance in a World of Change, the humanitarian sector operates as an elite club furthering the interests of a specific group. They are elite not just because they come from the West and are funded by Western interests, but also because, as individuals, they come from middle- and upper-class backgrounds. Organizations like the UN and the IFRC favor individuals who are fluent in at least two European languages, not necessarily to speak to local people, but because these languages are the established languages of international politics. These humanitarian jobs are often completely out of reach for working-class people in any nation, Junru Bian points out.

Despite some efforts to universalize humanitarian education by building inter-agency networks and clusters, for the most part, each international humanitarian organization has its own individual education initiative, which is often rolled out differently in each location. Sometimes these initiatives include cooperation with local organizations, while in other instances they involve the state education departments. The sheer volume of different initiatives may be due to localization processes, and to ensure that learning meets the needs and contexts of learners. But it can also result from competition among organizations, the desire to align with their internal mission or values, and funders who demand something new, different, or specific to their goals.

Failing to meet funders’ demands can lead to a Catch-22 financial situation for humanitarian organizations. Education initiatives are already chronically underfunded. “New analysis from UNICEF shows that international aid to education is projected to fall by $3.2 billion by 2026—a 24 percent drop,” states the UNICEF website. International Rescue Committee’s senior director of education, Emma Gremley, laments that “Despite the vast and growing education needs of children and youth in crisis contexts, education remains a severely underfunded aspect of humanitarian responses globally, receiving less than three percent of humanitarian aid annually.” On the other hand, when it is funded, funders can often bring their own biases to the program through funding requirements. The World Bank self-reports that it is a key funder of humanitarian education programs. “Our education portfolio in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence settings has grown rapidly in recent years, reflecting the increasing importance of the FCV agenda in education. In fiscal year 2024 (FY24), our investment in FCV settings stands at $7 billion, accounting for about 27 percent of the World Bank’s education portfolio and representing 42 projects in 28 countries.” Critics argue that organizations such as the World Bank are not politically neutral and that funding priorities can shape the design and implementation of humanitarian education programs.

Another problem is the lack of consistency in approach and in the sharing of data to determine which actions or initiatives are effective and which are not. Even when organizations review their programs, they are not always forthcoming with the results, perhaps for fear that any negative findings would be used to revoke funding. Finally, a common issue across these initiatives is their focus solely on teaching children. Adults are key actors in conflict, but are often completely excluded from these peace education initiatives. In general, very little attention is paid to educating adults beyond career-related skills. According to a 2023 survey by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, one in four adults faces barriers to learning. Around half of adults don’t participate in learning or show interest in it. Common barriers are a lack of time and opportunities, and the restrictive cost of training. Humanitarian peace education, which doesn’t reach the people who need it the most, cannot possibly achieve peace.
The Future of Humanitarian Education

Humanitarian education has expanded far beyond simply restoring access to schooling. It now encompasses peace education, psychosocial support, social-emotional learning, and humanitarian principles, all aimed at reducing suffering and helping communities recover from crisis. While many programs show promising results, especially at the individual and community level, evidence of their long-term impact on building peaceful societies remains limited.

The field also faces significant challenges, including chronic underfunding, fragmented approaches across organizations, political constraints, and a lack of rigorous long-term evaluation. As a result, researchers still know far less than they should about which educational approaches produce lasting change and how successful models can be adapted to different cultural and political contexts.

Even so, humanitarian education remains one of the few humanitarian tools that addresses both immediate crises and their long-term consequences. Beyond restoring access to classrooms, it seeks to equip people with the knowledge, skills, and resilience needed to navigate conflict, rebuild communities, and reduce future harm. As conflicts become more frequent and complex, education is increasingly recognized not simply as a humanitarian service but as an essential part of humanitarian infrastructure—and one of the most important long-term investments societies can make in peace, resilience, and human well-being.


Credit Line: This article was produced for the Observatory by the Independent Media Institute.

About Chloe Bruce
Chloe Bruce is a nonprofit communications specialist and project manager who has worked and volunteered with humanitarian organizations in the UK, Australia, Colombia, China, and Canada. She studied English and history at the University of Edinburgh before earning a master's degree in leadership and international development from King's College London. She also holds an advanced diploma in humanitarian education from the University of Teacher Education Zug. She is a contributor to the Observatory.
View all posts by Chloe Bruce →
Critical Minerals In The Global Economy: Demand Drivers And Uzbekistan’s Position In The Supply Chain – Analysis

Rising Global Demand — Critical minerals like copper, rare earths, gallium, and germanium are essential for EVs, renewable energy, and AI, driving structural demand growth and supply security concerns amid China’s dominance in processing.

Uzbekistan’s Export Growth — Critical mineral exports rose ~33% from $6.85B in 2020 to $9.13B in 2024, led by gold and copper, positioning Uzbekistan as an emerging supplier amid global diversification efforts.

Need for Value Addition — Most exports remain raw or low-processed materials; expanding domestic refining (e.g., Uzbekistan Technological Metals Complex model) and securing technology transfers are key to capturing higher value in global chains.

Introduction


Critical and strategic minerals, including copper, rare earth elements, gallium, germanium, tungsten, nickel, and other technology-related metals, have assumed a position in industrial policy comparable to that once occupied by oil and gold. This shift reflects the convergence of three major transformations: transport electrification, renewable energy expansion, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, all of which depend on a relatively narrow range of mineral inputs (Bloomberg, 2026). As demand continues to accelerate, concerns regarding supply security and processing concentration have intensified, increasing the strategic importance of countries that control extraction and refining capacity. This article examines the principal drivers of global demand for critical and strategic minerals and evaluates Uzbekistan’s export performance, its role in international supply chains, and opportunities to increase domestic value addition.

Structural Demand Drivers

A mineral is generally classified as critical when it is both economically essential and vulnerable to supply disruption. Such vulnerability typically arises when extraction or refining activities are concentrated in a limited number of countries and commercially viable substitutes are unavailable. The addition of copper to the United States critical-minerals list in 2025 demonstrates how rapidly strategic assessments are evolving in response to technological and industrial change. Electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies are currently the most established drivers of mineral demand. According to Elements (2022), an electric vehicle requires approximately six times more mineral inputs than a conventional internal-combustion vehicle, while an onshore wind turbine requires roughly nine times more mineral resources than a comparable gas-fired power facility. These technologies depend heavily on copper, rare earth elements, nickel, and other strategic minerals that support electrification and energy storage systems.

Artificial intelligence has emerged as an additional and rapidly expanding source of demand. The construction of hyperscale data centers requires significant quantities of copper for power transmission, cooling systems, and digital infrastructure. Advanced semiconductors further depend on materials such as gallium and germanium. According to S&P Global (2026), global copper demand is projected to increase from approximately 28 million metric tons in 2025 to more than 42 million metric tons by 2040, with digital infrastructure and AI-related investments becoming increasingly important contributors. At the same time, global supply remains highly concentrated. China dominates the processing of rare earth elements and maintains a leading position in the production and refining of several strategic minerals. Recent export restrictions have highlighted the geopolitical risks associated with concentrated supply chains and have encouraged major economies to pursue diversification strategies. As a result, countries with commercially viable mineral reserves and stable investment environments are becoming increasingly important participants in global supply networks.


These developments create significant opportunities for resource-rich economies such as Uzbekistan. Growing demand, combined with international efforts to diversify sourcing arrangements, provides favorable conditions for expanding mineral exports and increasing participation in higher-value segments of global supply chains.

Uzbekistan’s Export Profile and Contribution to Global Supply Chains

Uzbekistan possesses an established mining sector. The Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex, founded in 1949, remains the country’s sole copper producer, while the state-owned Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Complex ranks among the largest gold producers globally. Uzbekistan’s copper reserves rank eleventh worldwide, and the government has identified thirty-two critical minerals with commercial potential.

Figure 1. Uzbekistan’s critical mineral export value, 2020–2024 (USD million). Source: Developed by the author based on data from Stat.uz

Export data indicate that Uzbekistan’s critical and strategic mineral exports increased from approximately USD 6.85 billion in 2020 to USD 9.13 billion in 2024, representing growth of roughly 33 percent over the five-year period (Figure 1). Export revenues fluctuated moderately during 2021 and 2022 before increasing sharply in 2023, when total exports reached nearly USD 9.63 billion. Although export earnings declined slightly in 2024, they remained substantially above earlier levels, underscoring the growing importance of mineral commodities in Uzbekistan’s export structure. The export profile is highly concentrated in a small number of mineral categories. Gold consistently accounts for the largest share of export revenues, followed by copper. Aluminum, zinc, and nickel contribute comparatively smaller shares but remain strategically relevant for industrial diversification and participation in emerging technology-related value chains.


Category20202021202220232024Five-Year Change
Gold$ 5 950,20$ 4 526,67$ 4 312,44$ 8 334,56$ 7 751,5930%
Copper$ 729,08$ 1 170,86$ 1 107,78$ 1 106,24$ 1 194,0464%
Nickel$ 1,55$ 1,38$ 0,63$ 1,21$ 1,592%
Aluminum$ 21,90$ 53,32$ 54,47$ 44,77$ 66,93206%
Zinc$ 149,11$ 198,64$ 239,73$ 147,20$ 115,37-23%
Table 1. Uzbekistan’s exports by mineral category, five-year change, in millions. Source: Stat.uz

The composition of mineral exports reveals differing growth trajectories across commodity groups. Gold exports increased by approximately 30 percent between 2020 and 2024, reaching USD 7.75 billion and maintaining their position as the dominant source of mineral-export earnings (Table 1). Although export revenues fluctuated throughout the period, gold continues to play a central role in supporting foreign-exchange earnings and macroeconomic stability.

Copper exports increased by approximately 64 percent over the same period, rising from USD 729 million to nearly USD 1.2 billion. Given copper’s importance in renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, electricity networks, and artificial intelligence infrastructure, this trend positions Uzbekistan well to benefit from long-term structural demand growth. Among the remaining categories, aluminum demonstrated the strongest growth, expanding by more than 200 percent between 2020 and 2024. Although its overall contribution remains modest compared with gold and copper, this performance suggests increasing opportunities in industrial and technology-oriented supply chains. Nickel exports remained relatively stable, while zinc exports declined by approximately 23 percent, making zinc the only major category in the sample to record a sustained contraction during the review period.

Overall, Uzbekistan’s contribution to global mineral supply chains remains modest compared with leading producers such as Chile, Australia, and China. Nevertheless, growing international efforts to diversify supply sources have increased the strategic importance of emerging producers. Uzbekistan’s geological diversity, geographic position, and expanding international partnerships provide a strong foundation for strengthening its role within global critical and strategic mineral markets.


Increasing Value-Added Output

A significant proportion of Uzbekistan’s current exports consists of raw ore, concentrate, or unrefined bullion rather than the refined or battery-grade materials that capture the greatest value within these supply chains. The 2024 establishment of the Uzbekistan Technological Metals Complex, intended to build a complete processing chain from raw material to finished product for tungsten and molybdenum, represents a substantive step toward addressing this gap. Extending this model to copper, alongside planned production of selenium, tellurium, and rhenium, constitutes a logical next phase. Investment in battery- and semiconductor-grade refining, rather than extraction capacity alone, is likely to yield the greatest increase in captured value, as this stage of the chain generates the highest margins.

Uzbekistan’s engagement with multiple partners, including a February 2026 critical minerals memorandum with the United States, participation in the FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) initiative, and interest from Azerbaijan’s AzerGold, provides leverage to negotiate technology transfer alongside capital (CFR 2026; Times of Central Asia 2026). Concurrent investment in domestic technical capacity, including metallurgical training and planned research infrastructure in Chirchik, is a necessary complement, as extraction rights alone do not confer the capacity to process materials domestically.

Constraints merit acknowledgment: refining infrastructure requires substantial capital and extended timelines; water and environmental considerations are significant given existing scarcity; and managing simultaneous interest from the United States, the European Union, and China will require policy discipline.

Conclusion and policy recommendations

Global demand for critical minerals is being driven by transport electrification, renewable energy deployment, and the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, alongside a pronounced effort by major economies to reduce dependence on concentrated sources of supply. This combination presents a favorable environment for a mineral-rich, geologically diverse producer such as Uzbekistan to secure advantageous terms for capital and technology. The data examined indicate measurable growth, though concentrated in a limited number of commodities and weighted toward unprocessed materials. Whether Uzbekistan converts current agreements into refining capacity and higher-value finished products will determine whether it secures a durable position within global supply chains, rather than remaining a supplier of raw material.

Based on the analysis above, refining capacity should take priority over further extraction expansion, since export value remains concentrated in raw ore, concentrate, and bullion rather than higher-margin processed materials. The Uzbekistan Technological Metals Complex’s concentrate-to-finished-product model, already applied to tungsten and molybdenum, should be extended to copper and to the planned selenium, tellurium, and rhenium lines. Lithium and platinum group metals warrant targeted investment, as both declined in export value over 2020–2024 despite being the categories global buyers most want diversified. Technology transfer should be negotiated across the existing U.S. memorandum, the FORGE initiative, and AzerGold engagement, while also evaluating technical cooperation with Chinese refiners on commercial merit, given China’s processing expertise. This requires parallel investment in metallurgical training and the Chirchik research infrastructure, without which extraction rights alone will not build domestic processing capacity. Water-resource and environmental planning should be built into project design from the outset, given Uzbekistan’s existing scarcity constraints, to avoid delays as agreements move to construction

References

Bloomberg (2026). Critical Minerals: The Core of the Modern Economy. Available at: https://sponsored.bloomberg.com/immersive/globalx/charting-disruption/critical-minerals

China Briefing. (2025). China’s Rare Earth Elements Dominance in Global Supply Chains. Available at: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-rare-earth-elements-dominance-in-global-supply-chains/

Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). (2026). U.S. Allies Aim to Break China’s Critical Minerals Dominance. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/articles/u-s-allies-aim-to-break-chinas-critical-minerals-dominance

Elements. (2022). EVs vs. Gas Vehicles: What Are Cars Made Out Of? Available at: https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/evs-vs-gas-vehicles-what-are-cars-made-out-of/

Grand View Research. (2025). Electric Vehicle Battery Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis. Available at: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-electric-vehicle-battery-market

McKinsey & Company. (2025). Amped-Up Battery Demand. Available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/week-in-charts/amped-up-battery-demand

S&P Global. (2026). Copper in the Age of AI. Available at: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/copper-in-the-age-of-ai

Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Stat.uz). (2025).
 Foreign Trade Statistics and Mineral Export Data. Available at: https://stat.uz

Times of Central Asia. (2026). Azerbaijan Moves into Uzbekistan’s Gold and Critical Minerals Sector. Available at: https://timesca.com/azerbaijan-moves-into-uzbekistans-gold-and-critical-minerals-sector/

U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA). (2026). Uzbekistan Mining and Quarrying Sectors. Available at: https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/uzbekistan-mining-and-quarrying-sectors

World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). (2026). Uzbekistan Trade Profile. Available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/UZB



About the authors:

Dr. Ikboljon Kasimov – Assoc. Professor of Business and Economics at the Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship

Mr. Ikhtiyorkhon Jabborov – Chief Specialist, Research and Grants Department at the Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship


About Dr. Ikboljon Kasimov

Dr. Ikboljon Kasimov is an economist specializing in foreign trade and investment, structural transformation, business and entrepreneurship, and sustainable development in developing countries, with a particular focus on transition economies. He has led and contributed to research on the impact of FDI on economic growth and energy intensity, export diversification, and the search for new prospective markets for Uzbekistan’s goods and services. Dr. Kasimov actively engages with policymakers, providing evidence-based input on trade, investment, and sustainable development strategies
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About Ikhtiyorkhon Jabborov

Ikhtiyorkhon Jabborov – Chief Specialist, Research and Grants Department at the Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship
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China’s 15th Five-Year Plan And The End Of Europe’s Industrial Illusion: Why Germany Is The Ultimate Test Case – OpEd




Strategic Shift in China’s Approach — Beijing’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is not just an economic blueprint but a deliberate strategy to create permanent dependencies, lock Europe into negative trade balances, and outpace the EU’s de-risking efforts through supply-chain dominance.

Germany as the Critical Test Case — As Europe’s industrial heart, Germany’s reluctance to confront China on human rights (especially Uyghur forced labor) and its heavy economic exposure make Berlin’s policy a litmus test for whether the EU can implement meaningful de-risking or remain strategically vulnerable.

Urgent Actions Needed — Europe must move beyond rhetoric by setting measurable de-risking benchmarks, addressing forced labor in supply chains, scrutinizing outbound investment, and coordinating security policy (including with NATO) before China’s plan solidifies its advantages.


For years, the European debate on China has been framed mainly in economic terms: market access, export opportunities, industrial policy, and supply-chain resilience. These remain important, but they no longer capture the full nature of the challenge. The imminent rollout of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) demands a fundamental shift in how Europe understands its relationship with Beijing. This new plan is not merely an ambitious economic roadmap; it is an asymmetric trap designed to outpace Europe’s fragile de-risking strategy before it can even be fully implemented.

Currently, much of the European response treats the 15th Five-Year Plan as a green technology challenge or a competitive blueprint. This is a profound miscalculation. The plan is a comprehensive strategy for structural coercion. By relentlessly consolidating its dominance in critical supply chains, Beijing aims to build a sanction-proof industrial ecosystem. It seeks to permanently lock European supply chains into an authoritarian dependency and an irreversible negative trade balance.

To understand the gravity of this impending reality, one need only look at Germany. Germany’s China policy is no longer only a German question. Because Germany remains Europe’s industrial core, its approach to China will help determine whether the European Union’s de-risking agenda becomes a serious strategy or remains a diplomatic formula.

In reality, Berlin has largely set aside its foundational values for the sake of sheer commercial interests in China. While smaller European nations with historical memory, such as the Czech Republic and Lithuania (and earlier, parliaments like Belgium and the UK), have had the courage to formally recognize China’s policies against the Uyghurs as genocide or crimes against humanity, Berlin remains terrified of even bringing the issue to the negotiating table. Symbolically speaking, Germany’s approach has effectively been to “continue making money among the dead.” The scale of this relationship explains Germany’s caution—but it also exposes why hesitation in Berlin is a strategic liability for Europe.

The Industrial Paradox

German industry now faces a paradox. For decades, China was treated as a source of growth for German manufacturers. Today, it has become a source of direct, state-backed competition. In sectors such as electric vehicles, chemicals, and advanced machinery, Chinese firms are no longer only customers or suppliers. They are increasingly rivals, empowered by the very industrial policies the 15th Five-Year Plan seeks to perfect.


The automotive sector illustrates this shift. China remains central to the strategy of German carmakers, but the market is no longer the relatively predictable source of growth it once appeared to be. Volkswagen, for example, has been forced to lower its 2030 China sales targets and reduce its expected operating margins amid aggressive competition from Chinese domestic champions. What began as access to a large market has increasingly become exposure to a state-supported competitor.

Human Rights as Strategic Exposure

The Uyghur issue makes the political nature of this challenge impossible to ignore. Extensive evidence has documented mass detention, coercive birth control, forced labour, and pervasive surveillance in Xinjiang. Democratic parliaments worldwide have rightly identified these actions as constituting genocide and severe crimes against humanity.

Germany’s caution is often explained in economic terms: fear of retaliation and the exposure of large industrial groups to the Chinese market. But this is no longer only a moral question. It is becoming a regulatory and strategic question for the European Union. The EU Forced Labour Regulation will ban products made with forced labour from the EU market starting December 14, 2027. Forced labour concerns cannot be treated as separate from economic strategy; they are foundational to Europe’s legal, commercial, and security framework.

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan relies heavily on the continuous exploitation of the Uyghur region—not only for natural resources but as a testing ground for digital surveillance and forced industrial labour. If Germany treats Uyghur forced labour as a reputational issue rather than a structural risk, it will fall perilously behind the direction in which EU policy is already moving.

A Systemic Challenge and the Closing Window

The deeper issue is systemic. China’s model combines industrial policy, digital surveillance, party control, and economic coercion in ways that differ fundamentally from Europe’s liberal-democratic order. To move from hesitation to coherence, Europe—led by a strategic shift in Germany—must take immediate, irreversible action in three areas:

First, it must make de-risking measurable. Supply-chain diversification should not remain a slogan. Europe must identify critical dependencies in sectors such as batteries, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and publish clear, legally binding benchmarks for reducing exposure.

Second, it must systematically dismantle monopoly policies. Europe must rigorously examine the hidden clauses within China’s 15th Five-Year Plan that directly impact the EU-China trade balance, particularly the monopolistic practices embedded in Beijing’s rare earth (and critical minerals) policies, and take necessary defensive countermeasures.

Third, it must synchronise its security strategy. Outbound investment screening should focus aggressively on areas where European capital could strengthen Beijing’s surveillance technologies or military-civil fusion. This economic security posture must be closely coordinated within the NATO framework.

The EU must achieve greater unity and address the systemic sluggishness and vulnerability in its policy-making. It must close every loophole exploited by a Chinese state apparatus that has internalized the “Thirty-Six Stratagems” as the inseparable foundation of its strategic culture. If Berlin and Brussels can translate de-risking into credible industrial, financial, and human rights policy before the 15th Five-Year Plan solidifies Beijing’s systemic advantages, the EU will remain strong. If they cannot, Europe’s China strategy will remain fragmented, and its most powerful economies will become its most serious strategic weak points. The window for independent action is closing fast.


About Najmidin Qarluq
Najmidin Qarluq is a Brussels-based writer, policy analyst, and Principal Analyst at the EU Risk Analysis Institute. Drawing from his background as a former political prisoner, he specializes in EU-China relations, geopolitical risk, and the defense of open societies and Enlightenment values.
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Robert Reich: Stop Private Equity From Profiting While Our Communities Burn – OpEd


July 8, 2026 
By Robert Reich

Key Takeaways

Private Equity is Inflating Costs for Fire Departments — Firms are buying up essential suppliers like emergency software, radios, fire truck engines, and flame retardants, then sharply raising prices.Volunteer Fire Departments are Hit Hardest — Making up 85% of U.S. fire departments and operating on tight budgets, many face massive price hikes — such as software costs jumping from $795 to $5,000 per year.

Public Safety Must Come Before Private Equity Profits — States should block private equity ownership of critical services, and Congress should close the carried interest tax loophole that benefits these firms.

Private equity firms are buying up all sorts of things that fire departments rely on — and jacking up their prices.


This is particularly harmful to volunteer fire departments, which make up about 85 percent of fire departments in the country and operate on shoestring budgets.

Even modest price increases on software can limit a fire department’s ability to protect the public. One Connecticut volunteer fire department reported that after a private equity firm bought the software platform it used to track emergencies, the yearly price skyrocketed from $795 to $5,000.


Private equity is also buying up companies that produce emergency radios, fire truck engines, and flame retardant chemicals.

By now we should all know that when private equity gets involved, prices go up and quality goes down — whether it’s housing or healthcare or even local newspapers.

Private equity managers get rich as they plunder vital industries and then take advantage of the carried interest loophole, which lets them pay a lower tax rate by classifying their incomes as investments.

Fire departments all over America are now facing higher costs, which makes it harder for them to replace aging equipment, train firefighters, and provide emergency services. Some firefighters even report going out on calls in fire engines with faulty brakes.

Can you imagine?

And even if they can afford new equipment, they have to wait longer for it. Sometimes years for a fire truck.

Let me ask you, honestly: Are private equity profits really more important than public safety?

States can and should prohibit private equity firms from sinking their teeth into vital public goods and services.

Oregon, for example, just passed the nation’s strictest law blocking private equity firms from controlling healthcare practices.

And Congress must follow through on eliminating the carried interest tax loophole that lets private equity managers get away with paying less in taxes.

We must not let private equity firms cash in while our communities burn.



This article was published at Robert Reich’s Substack


About Robert Reich
Robert B. Reichis Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley and Senior Fellow at the Blum Center for Developing Economies, and writes atrobertreich.substack.com. Reich served as Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration, for which Time Magazine named him one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the twentieth century. He has written fifteen books, including the best sellers "Aftershock", "The Work of Nations," and"Beyond Outrage," and, his most recent, "The Common Good," which is available in bookstores now. He is also a founding editor of the American Prospect magazine, chairman of Common Cause, a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and co-creator of the award-winning documentary, "Inequality For All." He's co-creator of the Netflix original documentary "Saving Capitalism," which is streaming now.
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Demagogue Stunt: Nigel Farage’s By-Election Gambit – OpEd


July 8, 2026 
By Binoy Kampmark

Key Takeaways

Farage’s Anti-Establishment Image is Cracking — Revelations about undeclared funding from a convicted criminal aide and a billionaire donor expose the gap between his populist rhetoric and personal dealings.

Undeclared Gifts Raise Serious Standards Questions — Farage faces parliamentary scrutiny for failing to register large donations for security and expenses, despite rules requiring transparency for gifts over £300.

By-Election Becomes a Vanity Project — Farage calls on Clacton voters to judge him and stick two fingers up at the establishment, while other parties dismiss it as a gimmick and plan to stand aside.



Nigel Farage is not a picture of happiness. As Britain’s version of Trumpism (only a version, never a facsimile), the leader of Reform UK had been flying high in the polls. But his themes are starting to tire: the anti-establishment figure who so happens to be profiting from it; the martyr who always falls just short of the sword; the erratic, even cranky bully who aims volcanic fury at media reports he doesn’t like.

A report from The Sunday Times was certainly one such example he did not take a shine to. According to the paper, George Cottrell, a long-time aristocratic aide and convicted criminal, provided funding to Reform UK covering various expenses, including private security, staffing for social media boosting and plush accommodation. These were not declared to parliamentary authorities. Cottrell’s copybook was somewhat blotted by an eight-month stretch in a US prison on wire fraud charges, not that it made much of a difference to Reform operators. (It could have been worse, given his agreement to launder drug money in an undercover FBI sting operation.) As Rob Lownie quipped in Unherd, “In a party with little fondness for strictures, Reform UK insiders maintain that there is one rule: ‘Don’t ask what Posh George does.’”

The Cottrell connection says much about Farage as populist manqué, one who heaps bile upon the powers that be only to cavort and revel with them. Posh George, suggests the political editor of The Independent, David Maddox, has the potential of cursing the Reform leader’s bid for prime ministerial honours. Maddox overeggs the pudding, but he offers that stern Pauline warning that people are judged by the company they keep. Think of Labour’s Keir Starmer and his insensible decision to allow Peter Mandelson (another creature of the “fix-it” school), friend of the late convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, to become UK ambassador to Washington. Or the Conservative Boris Johnson’s dotty promotion of the insufferable Chris Pincher (“Pincher by name, pincher by nature”) to deputy chief whip.


To this can be added an April 2024 gift of £5 million from the cryptocurrency investor and billionaire donor Christopher Harborne, that great exemplar of Britishness who prefers to express his flagged patriotism from the distant climes of Thailand. Harborne’s generosity did not go unnoticed. Since May, Farage has been under investigation by the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards for failing to declare Harborne’s gift.

According to the parliamentary rule book, members, subject to various qualifications, must register “any gifts, benefits or hospitality with a value of over £300 which they receive from a UK source.” Multiple benefits from the same source over the value of £300 in a calendar year must also be registered. An exemption does exist for those gifts and benefits deemed “purely personal”. On becoming an MP, Farage registered a trip to Belgium donated by Cottrell to the value of £9,253, and a subsequent £15,276 donation for a US domestic flight in December 2024. After that, nothing appears. Farage further argues that the gift from Harborne was “unconditional” and would go to costs incurred for personal security. The argument here is that it was also given in a personal capacity, thereby exempting it from declaration.

What, then, does a hassled demagogue do in such a situation? For the MP for Clacton, the choice was simple, largely because it was made for him. (The outcome inquiry by Daniel Greenberg, the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, could well have forced the issue.) The “people of Clacton,” Farage suggested in a live video statement, “should be the judges of my actions”. Here was a chance to “stick two fingers up at the entire establishment”. Public money had not been misused; no law had been broken.

Such gestures, to be invested with meaning, need fellow participants. And the other parties of British politics have made noises that they will not be fielding candidates in Farage’s forced by-election. The Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey has suggested that all parties “stand aside” rather than involve themselves in “Farage’s vanity project”. The Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, thought the exercise a “gimmick” designed to “distract people from what is happening”.


In such a situation, only suitable levels of disgust and disapproval will prevent Farage’s re-election. Reform voters have become fairly used to seeing their man of the long moment derided and mocked for not abiding by the rules. The party’s economic spokesperson, Robert Jenrick, gives some sense to this by claiming that the link with Cottrell was a “very old story that has been dredged up”. Besides, as Donald Trump’s electoral fortunes demonstrate, the iconoclastic rulebreaker who so happens to accuse everybody else for not following the rules is the very sort of record that can get you elected. That said, it is hard to shake off the feeling that being an elected MP is simply not something Farage is particularly fond of. He has always preferred to do things from outside the tent of representation, repeatedly failing to win a seat in the House of Commons, yet consistently present in British politics. Returning him to Westminster, and continuing investigations, may be exactly the sort of punishment he deserves.


About Binoy Kampmark
Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He lectures at RMIT University, Melbourne. Email: bkampmark@gmail.com
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