Peru pulls permit for $1.8B Tia Maria copper mine

Cecilia Jamasmie | April 10, 2026 | 

The Tía María project has faced years of community opposition due to environmental concerns. (Image: Tía María | Facebook)

Peru has revoked Southern Copper’s (NYSE, LON: SCCO) permit for its $1.8 billion Tía María project, forcing a fresh review of one of the country’s most contentious copper developments.

The Ministry of Energy and Mines (Minem) said the original approval lacked legal justification and failed to meet requirements under mining and administrative regulations, while also flagging incomplete technical plans, including waste dump design and project scheduling.

“This process will reassess the project’s technical viability and determine whether outstanding observations have been resolved,” the ministry said.

The decision represents a fresh challenge for a project long stalled by conflict, after protests between 2011 and 2015 left six people dead and halted development.

The government approved the mine in 2019, but it tied progress to the restoration of social stability. Southern Copper resumed development in 2024 after local tensions eased. By October last year, the company calculated the project was 23% complete.

Tía María is expected to begin production by the end of this year or early 2027, delivering 120,000 tonnes of copper annually over a projected 20-year lifespan, though the permit revocation now clouds that timeline.

Billions in stalled projects

The setback reflects broader challenges for the sector, with an estimated $7 billion in copper projects stalled by illegal mining activity, while illicit gold exports could reach $12 billion in 2025, according to the Peruvian Institute of Economics.

The move also lands amid political uncertainty, with Peruvians set to elect a new president on Sunday, and Congress following years of instability marked by multiple leadership changes since 2018.

The outcome could shape foreign relations and investment flows as the US seeks to secure critical mineral supply chains and counter China’s growing influence in the region.

Souther Copper, controlled by Grupo Mexico, operates the Toquepala and Cuajone copper mines as well as the Ilo refinery in southern Peru.

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2026 is shaping to be a key year for Latin America, with resources at the centre of a growing global power struggle, as governments and investors focus on who controls critical minerals and the supply chains behind them. If the region matters to you, don’t miss MINING.COM’s Latin America series tracking the geopolitical forces reshaping it and why markets are increasingly driven by global alliances as much as local politics.

Countries in the series so far:

• Bolivia
• Chile
• Colombia

 

Why cruise passengers are missing out on seeing Alaska’s ‘queen of fjords’

Copyright Peter Mulligan, CC BY 2.0

By Michael Starling & AP

Published on 12/04/2026 - EURONEWS

Tracy Arm, a majestic fjord located southeast of Juneau, is being skipped by major cruise lines this season following a massive landslide last summer.

For years, sailing through Tracy Arm in southeast Alaska has been a highlight of many cruise itineraries, drawing visitors with its dramatic fjord landscapes and active glaciers that calve into icy waters.

The narrow passage, framed by rugged wilderness, has long been considered one of the region’s most scenic cruising experiences. However, this season several major cruise lines are choosing to bypass the route.

The decision follows a massive landslide last summer, when a large section of a glacier collapsed into the fjord, triggering a tsunami that sent waves surging high up the opposing mountainside. The event raised concerns about the stability of surrounding slopes, which remain potentially hazardous.

Citing passenger safety and ongoing geological risks, cruise operators have opted to alter itineraries, reflecting a more cautious approach as conditions in the area continue to be assessed.

“Tracy Arm is the majestic princess, you know, she is the queen of fjords,” said travel agent Nate Vallier.

The destination cruise and tour companies have chosen as an alternative – nearby Endicott Arm and Dawes Glacier – is “still beautiful by any means, but it’s just not the same”, he said.

Tracy Arm, southeast of Juneau, is a roughly 50-kilometre fjord that leads to the Sawyer Glacier and features wildlife, including seals and bears.

On 10 August 2025, a landslide originating high on a slope above the toe of the South Sawyer, near the head of the fjord, sent water surging more than a quarter mile (more than half a kilometre) up the mountain wall opposite the slide and out Tracy Arm.

No ships were in the fjord, officials said, and no deaths or injuries were reported. But kayakers camped on an island near where Tracy and Endicott arms meet had much of their gear swept away by the rushing water.

Southeast Alaska, largely encompassed by a temperate rainforest, is no stranger to landslides. And while it's long been known the fjord network in the Tracy Arm region has been susceptible, the slope that failed had not been identified as an active hazard before last summer's collapse, said Gabriel Wolken, manager of the state’s climate and ice hazards programme.

Scientists are working to understand not only what caused the slope to collapse but to understand what other hazards might exist in the fjord, he said.

The area remains unstable, said Steven Sobieszczyk, a US Geological Survey spokesperson. Steep landslide areas continue to change for years after an initial slide, he said by email.

“Continued rockfall and small-scale sliding from the exposed landslide scar are expected and could impact the water, potentially causing a future localised tsunami,” he said.

A cruise ships sails into Tracy Arm fjord in Alaska JOE KAFKA/AP

Major cruise companies, including Holland America, Carnival Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean said in response to inquiries from AP that they are replacing a Tracy Arm visit with Endicott Arm. MSC Cruises, Virgin Voyages and regional tour company Allen Marine also are doing Endicott and Dawes Glacier instead. Norwegian Cruise Line said it does not have voyages sailing by Tracy Arm.

Endicott already has been a stop for some ships previously and an alternative when conditions in Tracy Arm, such as excess ice, have been unsafe.

Vallier, who owns the Alaska Travel Desk, said he would have liked cruise companies to give travellers more advance notice about itinerary changes.

After leaving Seattle, the first ships of the season are due 21 April in Ketchikan and in Juneau the following week.

Seeing a glacier – particularly a dynamic, calving glacier – is a bucket-list item for many tourists, and that's what has made Tracy Arm so popular, he said. While the Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau is a major attraction for the capital city and cruise port, many visitors view it from across a large lake, and it has diminished or entirely retreated from view from some hiking overlooks.

Kimberly Lebeda of Wichita, Kansas, was excited when she booked tickets for a Tracy Arm excursion for her family last year. Lebeda, who researches areas she visits, said she was sold on the scenery.

But the night before the stop, they were told that due to ice in Tracy Arm, they would go up Endicott instead. Her family and others who'd booked the excursion got off the ship and onto a smaller boat with glass windows, abundant seating and snacks. They saw seals on ice floes, waterfalls and “a wall of ice” calve from Dawes Glacier, she said.

She called it “an amazing thing to witness”.

“Was it worth it? Yes, because I don’t know if I'll ever get to do that trip again,” she said. “Again, I haven’t ever been to Tracy Arm so I can’t really compare. But to me, was it worth it and was it exciting? Absolutely.”

How Iran’s Dark Fleet Is Quietly Keeping Oil Markets Afloat

By Cyril Widdershoven - Apr 11, 2026

• Iran’s “dark fleet” is quietly sustaining global oil flows despite visible disruptions, with exports still near pre-war levels and masking the true supply picture.
• 
  
• The Strait of Hormuz is not fully closed but effectively controlled, creating a parallel system where sanctioned and opaque shipping continues while regular traffic collapses.
• 
  
• Markets are mispricing risk, as this shadow system stabilizes supply short term but introduces long-term fragility and greater vulnerability to sudden shocks.

It almost looks like an eternal story or an Australian boomerang approach, but the global oil market is once again being misread, very badly. Headlines speak of disruption, paralysis, and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz. International tanker trackers all report traffic collapsing, while Gulf exporters are shutting in production. Every single visible metric indicates that the system is under extreme stress. And yet, there is still oil flowing. This time it is not open, not as usual able to be measured by markets, or in volumes that are immediately transparent. Still, flows are there, moving steadily and deliberately, in quantities large enough to reshape the current balance of the global market. The real mechanism is a paradox, built on Iran’s so-called “dark fleet”. It is still working as a shadow logistics system that evolved from a sanctions workaround and has become a strategic instrument of geopolitical power.

It should no longer be seen as a marginal phenomenon but has become one of the central pillars of how the global oil system functions under stress. The real uncomfortable truth of it all is that, for now, it is not only tolerated by the international system but also indirectly relied upon.

While the conventional flows in the Strait of Hormuz are effectively closed, the reality is that it has not been “totally” closed. The flows have been transformed. Instead of a global artery open to all, Hormuz has become a selectively controlled corridor. Yes, overall commercial traffic has collapsed, with a decline of more than 90 percent compared to normal levels. It should, however, be recognized that this collapse is uneven. It applies primarily to Western-linked shipping, major Gulf exporters, and vessels operating within regulated insurance and compliance frameworks. At present, there is a well-functioning parallel system in place that continues to operate beneath this visible collapse. Iranian-linked tankers, sanctioned vessels, and ships operating under opaque ownership structures are still clearly moving through the strait, often with tacit or explicit tolerance from Iranian naval forces. The ultimate result is a bifurcated maritime system: one visible, regulated, and largely immobilized; the other opaque, flexible, and still active.

For markets and pundits, this distinction should matter enormously. Because Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf producers are seeing exports constrained or rerouted at great cost, Iran has managed to sustain flows at strikingly resilient levels. Current estimates indicate that Iranian exports have remained in the range of 1.5 to 1.7 million bpd, which is surprisingly at pre-war levels. In March alone, more than 16 million barrels are estimated to have transited through Hormuz under these conditions. Again, markets need to realize that the chokepoint is not closed, but Iranian-controlled.

The current situation is not accidental at all, as Tehran has been setting it up over years of adapting to sanctions pressure, drawing on lessons learned from Russia’s post-Ukraine shadow-fleet operations. Even though it is hard to admit, Tehran has managed to set up a system that is sophisticated, decentralized, and remarkably difficult to disrupt without escalating into a full-scale maritime conflict. At its core, the dark fleet relies on ownership opacity, the manipulation or outright deactivation of AIS signals, and the extensive use of ship-to-ship transfers. At the same time, these tankers are transparent and shell companies, often in jurisdictions with limited transparency, and flagged in states with weak enforcement. As has been seen again in the last few weeks, all of these vessels routinely “go dark” during critical phases of their voyages. At the start of the conflict, it was reported that at least 40 vessels were observed disabling AIS signals, a number that has likely increased as operations intensified.

None of these vessels operates in isolation; they are part of a network in which Iranian ports, especially Kharg Island, serve as initial loading points. At the same time, the Persian/Arabian Gulf continues to function as a staging area, with multiple laden tankers serving as floating storage and logistical buffers. In contrast, the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asian waters serve as transfer zones. Most cargoes are frequently transferred between vessels before being delivered to end buyers, with China as the primary destination. By the time the oil reaches its final market, its origin has been effectively obscured. This is not a loose collection of opportunistic actors; it is a structured, resilient supply chain.

The most persistent misunderstanding in current market analysis is the scale of these operations. At present, the assumption is that a collapse in visible tanker traffic equates to a collapse in supply. This is at present incorrect, as available intelligence suggests that between 1.0 and 1.7 million bpd of Iranian crude continues to move. Most of these barrels are moving through the very chokepoint that is presumed to be closed. It is known that within the Gulf itself, at least 25 laden Iranian tankers have been operating as part of this shadow system. They have collectively handled tens of millions of barrels since the start of the conflict. Iran has also been able to build up a substantial floating storage buffer, with estimates suggesting as much as 140 million barrels of crude held at sea. They are currently serving as both a revenue stabilization mechanism and a strategic reserve that can be released into the market when conditions permit.

At the same time, Iran has been, beyond Hormuz, activating alternative export infrastructure, most notably the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman. Even though it is still limited, Jask provides critical redundancy, allowing exports to bypass the strait entirely. With its almost 1 million bpd capacity, Jask represents a significant hedge against a complete maritime closure. Both options form a hybrid export model that combines controlled chokepoint access, offshore storage, alternative routing, and shadow logistics. Even though it is not as efficient as traditional operations, the system is highly effective under conditions of geopolitical stress.

For all, including policymakers, the most uncomfortable question to be answered is: why has it not been stopped? The possible answer, however, lies in a fundamental contradiction at the heart of current policy. Even though the USA and allies want to constrain Iran’s revenues and limit its geopolitical influence, they also understand that removing Iranian oil from the market entirely would trigger a supply shock of potentially historic proportions. With 15–20 percent of global oil and LNG flows already disrupted by the Hormuz crisis, the real risk in the market at present is further supply losses. The margin for additional losses is extremely thin. A full blockade of Iranian exports would not only drive prices sharply higher but would also almost certainly destabilize global economic conditions at a time of already heightened uncertainty.

We are at present looking at a form of strategic ambiguity. Enforcement actions are selective. Sanctions remain in place, but their application is uneven. Markets are even prevented from overheating by temporary waivers or tacit allowances. Reality at present is, maybe not to the liking of most people, that Iran’s dark fleet is being allowed to operate within certain limits. Policymakers and advisors in Washington and elsewhere see it as an instrument serving as a stabilizing function, keeping barrels flowing that the market cannot easily replace. This is not a sustainable equilibrium, but it is the one currently in place.

Mispricing, however, is clearly in sight, as financial markets continue to focus on the system's visible layer. Financials are tracking tanker movements through conventional channels, monitoring official export data, and responding to headlines about infrastructure damage and production cuts. They, however, fail to recognize or incorporate the scale and persistence of the shadow system operating alongside it.

A series of mispricings seems to be in the market, as supply disruptions are often overestimated in the short term, while longer-term risks are underestimated. In the short term, Iran’s dark fleet is mitigating risks, but the system sustaining these flows is fragile and opaque. Also, markets need to reassess the impact of the control that Iran has achieved. By effectively regulating access to Hormuz while maintaining its own exports, Iran has shifted from being a constrained producer to a gatekeeper of regional flows.

We could not be looking any longer at a temporary distortion but at the buildup of an outline of a new market structure. The old global oil system seems increasingly divided into two parallel layers: a transparent, regulated system governed by formal rules, and an opaque, politically mediated system in which flows are determined by access, relationships, and the ability to operate outside conventional constraints. Tehran is clearly dominating the second level but will not be alone for long. Russia has already developed similar capabilities, while it can be expected that others will follow too. This move could result in a system in which sanctions become less effective, and control over logistics becomes as important as control over production itself.

Even though it is currently highly effective, the dark fleet system remains inherently unstable. The vessels involved are often old and poorly maintained. The vessels have limited or no insurance coverage, and operational standards are inconsistent. Any risk, disaster, or collision could remove significant volumes from the market overnight, trigger environmental damage, and provoke a more aggressive enforcement response. It also operates at the behest of the powers in place. The system works because it exists in a grey zone. It is neither fully legal nor fully suppressed but tolerated because it is useful. That tolerance, however, is conditional.

While the Gulf conflict is often framed in terms of missiles, drones, and military escalation, attention should be increased for a more consequential struggle that is unfolding at sea. Attention is needed for the quiet, persistent movement of oil through networks that operate beyond the reach of conventional oversight. For Iran, its dark fleet is not a workaround but a strategic asset that not only generates revenue but also sustains exports, supporting its influence over a global system still deeply dependent on Gulf energy flows.

This also shows the fundamental shift in how energy markets function under geopolitical stress. The conventional link between production, transport, and pricing is being replaced by a complex, less transparent system controlled by movement rather than ownership.

This system is currently keeping the market afloat by cushioning the shock of disruption and preventing a more severe supply crisis. It also stores risk, as it makes clear that the more the global economy depends on flows that cannot be fully seen, measured, or controlled, the more vulnerable it becomes to sudden and unpredictable shocks.

By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com

 

Glencore charters supertanker to load oil from Middle East

Reuters | April 8, 2026 | 

Asian Lion. Credit: Maritime Optima

Commodities trading firm Glencore has chartered a supertanker to load Middle Eastern crude for Asia, according to a shipping source and LSEG data, likely the first oil tanker to be fixed for the route since the ceasefire in the US-Iran war.

The Asian Lion, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) capable of holding 2 million barrels of oil, is heading to the Middle East, LSEG data showed.

Glencore chartered the tanker at W580 on the Worldscale industry measure used to calculate freight rates, according to a shipping source and LSEG data. Spot VLCC shipping rates on the route, more commonly known as TD3C DFRT-ME-CN, were at about W230 on February 27, before the war started, LSEG data showed.

The demurrage fee is at $580,000 per day, the source said. Demurrage is a charge paid to the ship owner in the event that a vessel exceeds the amount of time agreed for loading and unloading a cargo.

Glencore could not be immediately reached for a comment on the vessel fixture.

Shippers on Wednesday said they needed more clarity on the terms of the US-Iran ceasefire before resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran said the waterway remained closed to vessels sailing without a permit.

Iran said it would offer safe passage in coordination with its armed forces, though its coastguard warned on Wednesday that any ship attempting to sail without permission would be “targeted and destroyed”.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy posted a map showing alternative shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz to help transiting ships avoid naval mines, the semi-official Iranian news agency ISNA said early on Thursday.

The six-week conflict brought traffic through the strait – a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments – close to a standstill, pushing global energy prices sharply higher.

(By Florence Tan; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

 

Jamaica Calls Time on Paper-Based Maritime Practices in 2026

Bertrand Smith, Director General of the Maritime Authority of Jamaica.

Published Apr 11, 2026 5:58 PM by The Maritime Executive

[By: Maritime Authority of Jamaica]

The Maritime Authority of Jamaica has said paper-based processes are no longer fit for purpose in modern maritime operations, warning that outdated practices increasingly pose operational and safety risks in 2026.

The Authority said it expects operators to be able to demonstrate how digital systems, cyber resilience and crew training are being addressed as part of day-to-day operations, as reliance on manual processes continues to fall away across the sector.

Captain Steven Spence, Director of Safety, Environment and Certification, said: “Through Jamaica’s engagement at meetings of the International Maritime Organization, we are well aware of the issues shaping the global agenda. The challenge is not understanding what needs to change, but ensuring those discussions translate into practical action on the ground and at sea.”

He pointed to the continued reliance on manual and paper-heavy processes as one of the most visible barriers to progress. In 2026, there is a clear expectation that information should be accessible when it is needed, supported by reliable connectivity using a combination of cellular and satellite networks.

Captain Spence also cautioned that increased digitalisation brings new responsibilities. As systems become more connected, cyber security must be treated as a core element of maritime safety, with greater focus on protecting vessels, systems and crew from digital threats.

Sustainability remains a parallel pressure on the industry. The transition away from heavy fuel oils towards alternative fuels is already influencing ship design, engineering and operational planning, while efforts to reduce emissions, cut waste and move away from practices such as single-use plastics are now part of routine decision-making.

Looking across the sector, Bertrand Smith, Director General of the Maritime Authority of Jamaica, said: “The sector faces pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and environmental requirements. However, there is clear opportunity where the industry continues to invest in technology, people and cooperation.”

Captain Spence added that people will ultimately determine how successfully the sector adapts. He said: “As systems change, expectations change. Investment in training and development, both ashore and at sea, will decide how effectively the industry responds to the realities it is facing today.”

The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.

 

HII Brings In Robotics for Shipyard Grinding, Blasting and Painting

Courtesy GrayMatter / HII

Published Apr 9, 2026 11:10 PM by The Maritime Executive

Most of the high-profile robotics initiatives in shipbuilding focus on welding or cutting, but there's much more that has to happen to get a ship into the water. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) wants to automate another few steps in the construction cycle - blasting, coating and inspection - and has enlisted the help of physical AI company GrayMatter Robotics (GMR) to move the work forward. 

HII builds nearly all of the U.S. Navy's full-size surface combatants - the destroyers, amphibs and carriers that make up the most visible parts of the fleet. Save for General Dynamics Bath Ironworks, which builds one destroyer per year, all of the largest gray hulls entering commission come from HII's yards in Newport News and Pascagoula. That makes HII's production rate a critical factor for the U.S. Navy, and the company is working hard to increase it despite longstanding challenges in workforce development.

GrayMatter is in the business of automating factory-environment surface treatment processes, including grinding, sanding, blasting and spraying. It says that its robots are up to 12 times faster than skilled people at the same tasks, and that it can cut down rework by 95 percent thanks to higher consistency and quality. Its solutions eschew the humanoid robotic trend in favor of more a traditional industrial format: steel articulated arms with servo controls. Its value-adding innovation is in AI-enabled control software that can be set up quickly on new tasks, without advanced programming skills or precise fixturing. 

"By working with new partners like GMR we can further augment our workforce and speed up U.S. Navy shipbuilding production," said Eric Chewning, HII’s executive vice president of maritime systems.

Earlier in the year, HII announced a deal with Path Robotics to bring advanced robotic welding technology into its shipyard environment, as is seen with increasing frequency in South Korea. Portable welding robots are making their way into Korean panel lines and even out into the yard, where smaller hand-carried "cobots" are gaining traction. 

"Welding is one of the hardest processes to automate in any industry, and shipbuilding is no exception. Path’s physical AI is purpose-built for that challenge – seeing, understanding, and adapting to real world conditions in real time," said Andy Lonsberry, Path Robotics CEO and co-founder, in a statement earlier this year.

With help from tech vendors like Path and GrayMatter, HII hopes to boost throughput by another 15 percent this year, matching last year's performance growth. 

 

Port Tampa Bay Receives Largest Containership as Growth Continues

ZIM Canada arrives carrying 11,900 TEUs — the highest capacity ever handled at Port Tampa Bay (Port Tampa Bay)

Published Apr 10, 2026 4:11 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

Port Tampa Bay (Florida) welcomed a container vessel on Thursday, April 9, that set a new record for carrying capacity at the port. It comes as the port continues its long-term growth and is set to launch key new infrastructure projects.

The Zim Canada docked with 11,900 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), nearly 2,000 more than any vessel previously handled at the port. The ship, stretching 1,083 feet in length, is 114,643 gross tons, also making it the largest vessel by gross tonnage ever to dock at Port Tampa Bay.

Built in 2022 in China, the 132,069 dwt vessel is owned by Seaspan and on long-term charter to Zim. It is registered in the Marshall Islands.

According to port officials, the arrival underscores the port’s growing role in handling larger, high-capacity containerships and highlights the importance of ongoing infrastructure investments.

The record-setting arrival came as the port advances its largest project in history, the deepening of the shipping channel from 43 feet to 47 feet, set to begin construction in 2027. The $1.3 billion project will extend the entrance channel by 1.9 miles, remove 22 million cubic feet of material, and improve access for deeper-draft vessels. 

This week, the port announced it will be receiving $10 million in federal funding for the Tampa Harbor Navigation Improvement Project. It will support initial planning, engineering, and design. The project will proceed in six phases and is expected to be completed by 2034. The port is also preparing for expanded crane capabilities, with six post-Panamax cranes expected to be operational by the end of 2026.

Port Tampa Bay continues to grow as Florida’s largest and most diversified seaport. In fiscal year 2025, the port handled 32 million tons of cargo, including petroleum products, dry bulk commodities, containers, breakbulk, and project cargo. Container volumes have increased by more than 300 percent since 2018, with nearly 263,000 TEUs moving through the port last year. 

Officials highlighted that 45 percent of Florida’s gas and jet fuel is handled through the Port of Tampa Bay while emphasizing the vital role the port plays in the West Coast of Florida’s economy.

Port of Tampa Bay also handled a record 1.66 million cruise passengers, the highest total in its history, during 2025. Officials recently said the port is currently tracking toward 1.8 million passengers in 2026.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, however, on March 19, signed legislation blocking a proposed new cruise terminal in Manatee County. It would have been located outside the Sunshine Skyway Bridge, which limits the size of cruise ships that can enter the port. City officials are continuing to explore options for the location of a new terminal that would support the growth of the cruise sector from the port.

Shipbuilding Orderbook Hits 17-Year High Driven by Tankers Reports BIMCO

China's Hengli recently simultaneously floated four tankers as the surge in crude oil tanker oders continues to grow (Hengli)

Published Apr 9, 2026 7:56 PM by The Maritime Executive

The boom in shipbuilding orders is continuing, reaching a 17-year high, reports industry group BIMCO. While it sees a slowing in some sectors, it points to a recent surge in crude oil tanker orders coming after the container segment was already driven to new highs.

During the first quarter of 2026, newbuilding contracting has risen 40 percent year-over-year to 17.6 million Compensated Gross Tonnes (CGT). In total, it calculates the global shipping orderbook reached 191 million Compensated Gross Tonnes (CGT). BIMCO reports that this is equivalent to 17 percent of the global fleet, the highest ratio since 2011.

“So far during the 2020s, newbuilding contracting has been 47 percent higher than the average during the 2010s, driven by stronger market conditions in the larger sectors, an overall larger fleet, and an increased need for fleet renewal,” explains Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO. “This has contributed to an increase in newbuilding prices and longer lead times at shipyards, with 57 percent of contracting so far this year expected to be delivered after 2028.”

The most recent surge was driven, BIMCO reports, by a tripling of new tanker orders and a rebound in LNG tanker contracting. Overall, it calculates that tankers accounted for 32 percent of total contracting, the highest share since the second quarter of 2017. It breaks a long drought in the sector and coincides with the view that tankers have entered a strong new upcycle.

Some shipping sectors now have relatively large orderbooks BIMCO reports. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio, it points out, has risen to 22 percent for crude tankers, 19 percent for product tankers, 37 percent for containerships, and 40 percent for LNG carriers. For crude and product tankers, these newbuildings are expected to support fleet renewal, as 21 percent and 17 percent of the respective fleets are now over 20 years old, the age at which recycling is typically considered. By contrast, only 4 percent of the container fleet and 8 percent of the LNG fleet are over 25 years old, although these segments are expected to see higher demand growth.

Despite this significant yearly increase, BIMCO, however, also notes that newbuilding contracting has decreased 17 percent quarter over quarter, amid an easing in dry bulk orders. Bulker contracting spiked, it explains during the last quarter of 2025, largely due to increased orders for capesize vessels.

“In the medium term, the already swelling order books across several large shipping sectors could contribute to a slowdown in newbuilding contracting. Long lead times at shipyards and high newbuilding prices, combined with high market uncertainty concerning the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz sailings and alternative fuel availability, could also negatively affect contracting,” says Gouveia.

The data also highlights the ongoing concerns over geographic mix. Chinese shipyards remained the dominant choice for shipowners, says BIMCO, accounting for 70 percent of contracting in the first quarter of 2026. Korean yards captured just 20 percent, and that was mostly supported by stronger LNG tanker ordering. In contrast, contracting at Japanese yards fell 83 percent year-over-year to just 1 percent of new orders, the lowest share since at least 1996. BIMCO says this reflects limited capacity, long lead times, and reduced competitiveness.

The Japanese government has recently announced plans for a massive investment into its shipbuilding industry, while the major yards have been consolidating to improve their efficiency. South Korean yards are also moving aggressively on several fronts to stem their declines versus China, while the Trump administration and other geographies have heralded their own domestic plans to revitalize national shipbuilding.

Normal fleet renewal efforts and growing demand have also been supplemented by the growing need to address environmental issues. Despite the lack of clarity from the IMO and other regulators, companies have continued to invest in new technologies and ships able to adapt to the anticipated changes in fuels and efficiency in response to emerging regulations.
 

Global Cruise Outlook: New Challenges

After three blockbuster years, the industry may see slower growth in 2026

Port Canaveral emerged as the busiest homeport in 2025 handling more than 8.6 million passenger movements

Published Apr 10, 2026 9:34 AM by Allan E. Jordan

(Article originally published in Jan/Feb 2026 edition.)

 

After rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic with "revenge travel" driving strong growth, the cruise industry is facing new headwinds from the broader macro-environment and geopolitical pressures. 

Financial analysts point to a return to more traditional growth rates while the luxury and expedition segments of the industry are taking on new importance to drive future growth. 

The basic elements of cruising, a largely all-inclusive vacation that's hassle-free and offers an excellent value, remain in place and continue to gain traction with travelers. Analyst Meredith Prichard Jensen at HSBC says, "The pillars of growth remain intact, led by durable experience-led demand, a boost from private destination roll-out, and a strong value equation for the budget conscious.”

She writes in a recent report that the industry “navigated through intermittent cross currents in 2025” and ended the year outperforming the S&P 500 and the broader travel segment.

STRONG START

Further, the industry has started 2026 with a bang. Analyst Robin Farley of UBS notes that one large U.S. seller told her "wave season” is off to a strong start, in line with expectations. Farley thinks the robust booking environment of late 2025 is carrying into 2026

It's a sentiment echoed by Steve Griswold, owner of travel agency Pixie Vacations, who says cruise bookings at his agency increased in 2025 and 2026 has already exceeded 2025. The major cruise companies have stated that they're well booked through 2026 and are now releasing itineraries for 2027.

“The outdated caricature of a cruise passenger as a retired shuffleboard player is rapidly fading thanks to savvy social media and influencer campaigns,” observes HSBC's Jensen. She notes that as much as a third of the bookings are from the “new to cruise” segment. The industry has adjusted its product to compete with land-based resorts and theme parks, adding more short cruises in the broad, mass-market segment known as contemporary cruising as well as in the premium segment. However, it will have to work harder to achieve growth.

Analyst Chris Woronka of Deutsche Bank says, “There might be a bit of fatigue setting in among cruisers who have been dealing with steadily rising prices on tickets, onboard extras, and shore excursions.” He sees growth continuing at moderate levels and looks for yield growth to be “much more 'normal' in 2026.”

Driving down costs and continuing to lower financial leverage remain key goals for cruise companies. They're using advanced revenue management capabilities and enhancing/refining loyalty programs, learning from the hotel sector. There's a greater emphasis on the pre-boarding spend and high-margin activities onboard.

OVERCAPACITY

One of the big concerns emerging among analysts is the potential for overcapacity, especially in the Caribbean in the near term.

Several major new ships came online in 2025, including the MSC World America (216,638 gross tons with 6,764 passenger capacity) at its Miami homeport and Royal Caribbean's Star of the Seas (248,663 gross tons with capacity around 7,600 passengers) in Port Canaveral, Florida. Star of the Seas and her sister ship, Icon of the Seas, share the title of the world's largest cruise ship. 

Norwegian Cruise Line added Norwegian Aqua (156,300 gross tons with capacity for 3,571 passengers), and Celebrity Cruises added CelebrityXcel (141,420 gross tons with accommodations for up to 3,950 passengers). Only Carnival Cruise Line was more disciplined, not introducing a newbuild last year. 

Homeports benefited with Port Canaveral becoming the world's largest cruise port, handling 8.6 million passenger movements in FY 2025 and eclipsing PortMiami, the longtime leader, which handled just under that number. Newer cruise ports, including Galveston, Texas (approximately four million passenger movements), also continued their rapid growth. 

Supply in the contemporary segment (mass market) continues to be slightly higher than demand, says C. Patrick Scholes of Truist Securities. In his latest report, Scholes calls it a “slight though not extreme imbalance” but believes it's leading to higher levels of promotional activity, which could erode some pricing power and impact financial results, especially net yields, in the first half of 2026.

To offset some of the softness and keep more revenue in-house, companies are stepping up their investments in private destinations. Carnival Cruise Line opened Celebration Key on Freeport in the Bahamas and is enhancing existing facilities in Honduras, while Norwegian added a pier, pool, and other amenities to its Bahamas out island, Great Stirrup Cay. Royal Caribbean International is launching private beach clubs, including its first in the Bahamas.

$70 BILLION ORDERBOOK

Reflecting the longer-term positive outlook and the mass market potential, companies continue to order ultra-large cruise ships.

Both Carnival and Norwegian confirmed orders for their first 200,000-plus gross ton ships to be built at Fincantieri in Italy. MSC expanded its order for World Class vessels to eight at Chantiers de l'Atlantique in France while Royal Caribbean has the third, fourth and fifth ships of its Icon Class under construction at Meyer Turku in Finland.

While the majority of the new ships on order will be delivered by 2030, the orderbook extends to 2036 to lock in building slots.

A total of 75 cruise ships are on order, representing more than $70 billion in investment. Almost half the orderbook, 34 cruise ships, are for the mass market and will have nearly 165,000 berths. Despite the large investments, HSBC's Jensen notes the 2026 orderbook is running less than half that of 2019.

Analysts like Jensen see a measured pace for new ship deliveries and strategic decisions to rationalize capacity. Woronka points out that across all segments of the industry the new ships are larger, improving the operating economics, while predicting, "There will eventually be a fresh round of non-core ship retirements within the next three to five years.”

BRIGHT SPOTS

One bright spot for the industry is the continued growth in the ultra-luxury segment as well as expedition cruises to exotic destinations. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is at the forefront, ordering the first new class of ships in 10 years for ultra-luxury Regent Seven Seas Cruises – four 77,000 gross ton ships due by 2036 – while luxury brand Oceania Cruises has ordered five 86,000 gross ton ships due between 2027 and 2037.

There's a total of 32 luxury cruise shíps on order, but Scholes points out that while the high-end luxury segment is growing, demand remains at or slightly above supply.

“Expedition and yacht-style cruising is one of the fastest-growing segments we're seeing,” adds Henry Gilroy, Executive Vice President at Internova Travel Group. “Travelers are willing to pay more for exclusivity, access, and once-in-a-lifetime experiences.” 

Internova, which calls itself one of the world's largest travel service companies, recently completed an analysis of millions of travel bookings and surveyed 4,000 North American travelers. The Internova Index revealed a significant broadening of traveler interest in high-end cruises.

“One-third of travelers surveyed expressed interest in luxury yacht cruises and expedition-style voyages, with demand particularly strong among affluent and adventure-seekers,” the group reports.

Michele D'Agostino, Co-Founder of Secret Atlas, expedition micro-cruise specialists, says consumers are trading up. He sees a “durable shift toward experiences that feel scarce, real, and story-worthy” and says in 2026 “authenticity” is a differentiator “because many travelers have become allergic to anything that feels staged.”

THE "LUXURY HALO"

"The growth in ultra-luxury and destinations extends to some river cruise itineraries as well. It's also not gone unnoticed by luxury hotel brands including Ritz-Carlton, Four Seasons, Orient Express, and Aman, all of which partnered to launch branded cruise ships.

HSBC's Jensen points to the “embracing of the luxury halo" as one of the core factors driving industry growth. She expects that the entrance of the luxury hotel brands could be an “outsized catalyst for sector expansion and evolution” and help to set new "aspirational pricing” for the luxury segment.

The hotel brands have strong loyalty programs to leverage with Jensen pointing out that approximately 70 percent of Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection's first-year bookings were "new to cruise.” Four Seasons starts cruising in March, and Orient Express Corinthian enters service in June. 

Despite emerging challenges, the outlook remains very strong for the cruise industry. Analysts highlight that the “propensity to cruise” remains high as well as the recognition of the value aspects of a cruise vacation. For all its growth, however, cruising is just a small portion of the large, leisure-time travel sector, giving it extensive opportunities for continued expansion. – MarEx

Allan Jordan is the magazine's Associate Editor.
 

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.