Trump eats humble pie in Beijing
US President Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing ends today and he has been forced to eat humble pie after coming out of the gate last year with an extremely aggressive policy on China.
If you remember in the heady days of Trump's first term in office we still lived under the pax Americana. Trump launched a trade war with Beijing back then but since he took over just over a year ago, he became a lot more aggressive. Liberation Day tariffs were primarily aimed at Beijing and ended in a nasty showdown that saw Beijing throttle America's supply to critical minerals and rare earth metals. Trump was forced into a humiliating climb down and an agreement to suspend hostilities for a year – a deal that is about to expire.
However, the war in Iran has changed everything. The emperor's clothes have been stripped away, and the myth of US military supremacy has been debunked. Trump cannot win his war in Iran and was in Beijing partly to ask for Xi Jinping's help -- that will almost certainly not be forthcoming, as why should the Chinese help the Americans out of their self-inflicted imbroglio? For his part Xi has been remarkably consistent in his message. He has called for competitive cooperation and an end to the instabilities caused by America's incessant warmongering. The US tone has changed dramatically. Under the Biden administration both former Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen were in Beijing rudely lecturing Xi on the needs to end state subsidies to companies and to open the Chinese market to American goods. The former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock went even further by lecturing China on its human rights record at the lectern in Beijing with no regards to diplomacy whatsoever. She ended up being rebuked by the foreign minister in public for her total lack of diplomacy.
That's what makes the tone of Trump's trip to Beijing so remarkable. It's a complete about face. He talked about “my great friends” and the “great nation of China” as he sought commercial deals and help with the Gulf war. For me all this highlights the end of the pax Americana and looking at previous transitions between empires we are now in at least a decade-long period of confusion and instability while we transition to a new regime. A Pax Sinica? “All under heaven” as the Chinese would say? Not necessarily.
Xi is clearly acutely aware of what is going on. He put his finger on it in his opening remarks, telling Trump to his face that he should not fall into the “Thucydides Trap" – a concept in international relations that says when a rising power threatens to displace an established dominant power, the likelihood of conflict between the two increases significantly.
That should be pretty shocking. What Xi just did was openly threaten the US with war if it tries to interfere with China’s reunification with Taiwan. There is no other interpretation of this.
The reporting has all focused on Trump in Beijing (including what sounds like a very yummy Chinese version of humble pie including lobster soup and Beijing roast duck), but putting this story in a wider context, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was also in New Delhi to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the same day. They talked about trade. It’s pretty obvious this was timed to highlight the strength of the BRICS alliance and the weakness of the US position.
And equally poignant, the Kremlin just announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in Beijing too, his first foreign visit this year, maybe next week, to meet with Xi and reaffirm their Friendship pact signed in 2001. The Kremlin and Beijing are ostentatiously rubbing the White House nose in the weakness of its position and the strength of the growing Global South alliance opposing it.
There were other subtle slights. Trump’s visit was reportedly downgraded to a working visit, although its being reported as a more important state visit and there is some confusion over what the official status was. Xi also didn’t come to meet Trump at the airport when he arrived, which is not a slight, but nevertheless, was an honour Xi chose not to confer.
What is interesting diplomatically about the Putin visit is that Russian and Chinese sources are still referring to it as an official visit rather than a full “state visit”, which is still higher than just a working visit. But as Xi and Putin have met 40 times already – by far the most of either’s meetings – protocol nuances have become a little blurry. The last time Putin was in Beijing, Xi didn’t meet him at the airport either, but that meeting was classed as a state visit – the most important category.
The Taiwan war threat should be taken very seriously. While this week was all about diplomacy and trade, in the background is the growing militarisation of the CRINK alliance (China, Russia, Iran and North Korea) and their cooperation to make sure that Iran doesn’t lose its war with America – basically the same set up as Nato’s support of Ukraine against Russia, another war by proxy. The main take out, and what is new, is if the US goes to war with China it will lose.
Happily, despite his tough talk, it appears increasingly clear that Xi is sincere about his talk of “competitive cooperation” and also that he has little intention of forcing the reunification with Taiwan militarily; he wants a peaceful solution by referendum and is prepared to take his time to get there. Nevertheless, like Putin’s insistence of no-Nato for Ukraine, and the decision to invade when he was rebuffed, Xi also just made it clear that he will use the increasingly powerful PLA to force the issue if he has too.
Underwhelming summit outcome in China brings Trump back to reality
After raising high expectations ahead of his trip to Beijing, the U.S president leaves with little to show for it, disappointing investors. On key flashpoints such as Iran and Taiwan, China didn't give any ground.
Before his trip to China, Donald Trump faced outsized expectations – largely nurtured by himself
But the reality of a complex and challenging relationship caught up with him.
And that includes the fact that China has the upper hand right now.
From a US perspective, the immediate outcome of his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping was meagre: no grand breakthrough, but a mere stabilization of relations and a broad effort to prevent the superpower rivalry from spiralling further out of control.
“You don't get the sense that much has been accomplished,” said Helmut Brandstätter, a liberal Member of the European Parliament from Austria who is well connected with Chinese diplomats.
“Trump hasn't achieved anything economically for himself, nor has he done anything for the rest of the world,” he added.
In the run-up to the summit, Trump gave the impression that, with his large entourage of top American CEOs, he would bring home major contracts for the American economy. But that wasn't the case.
Although Xi agreed to purchase 200 Boeing jets, that number was much lower than the 500 that Trump had floated before.
Consequently, investors in the US were disappointed, with Boeing shares falling 4% on Wall Street.
The US president’s comment was vintage Trump: Xi “is going to order 200 jets...200 big ones.”
A large Boeing order was one of many business deals expected to come out of the closely watched talks. Yet by the time Trump left China on Friday, it was the only major deal that was announced.
The country's last big order with Boeing was during Trump's November 2017 trip to Beijing, when China agreed to buy 300 Boeing planes.
Relations between the two countries soured after that, and Boeing orders from China dried up.
According to US officials, both sides had agreed to sell farm goods, but only scant details were available, and no signs of a breakthrough on selling Nvidia chips to China, despite CEO Jensen Huang's dramatic last-minute addition to the trip.
On a positive note, both sides agreed to work to preserve and extend the fragile “trade truce” reached after the tariff war of last year.
They discussed mechanisms to manage future tariff disputes and export controls rather than allowing tensions to escalate immediately.
For European leaders nervously watching the summit, the underwhelming outcome should be a reason for relief, as nothing was said that would sideline the EU economically, according to Ling Chen, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
“The EU is not economically marginalized because it is an important economic partner to both the U.S. and China, especially as the two great powers compete strategically,” she added. “The EU is also an essential market for China's green energy products.”
While Trump and Xi may have stabilized their economic and trade relations, geopolitical security differences were barely papered over, at least in public.
At a banquet filed with pageantry, both leaders praised the other lavishly.
Xi described the get-together as a “milestone visit”, while Trump spoke of a “great couple of days” during which “fantastic trade deals” were made.
Yet, the commonality seemed to end there.
Just before the final Trump-Xi meeting on Friday, China’s foreign minister issued a blunt statement outlining its frustration with the US and Israel’s war with Iran.
"This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason to continue," the ministry said, adding that China was supporting efforts to reach a peace deal in a war that had severely affected energy supplies and the global economy.
On Thursday, Trump said in an interview with Fox News that Xi offered “to be of help” to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and pledged not to send military equipment to Iran, yet the Chinese side did not comment.
Before the summit, Trump was hoping for Chinese pressure on its Iranian ally to find a solution to end the conflict, but that did not materialize – maybe not yet.
“It is quite possible that the Chinese will exercise subtle influence on the Iranians in the weeks to come, but little of it will likely be visible,” said Ian Lesser, distinguished fellow at The German Marshall Fund.
The other big geopolitical issue, central to Chinese politics, is Taiwan – a topic that the American readout of the talks didn’t mention at all.
Yet, the Chinese issued a statement saying that Xi “stressed to President Trump that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations” and could lead to clashes and even conflict if not handled properly.
A stark, if not unprecedented warning.
Taiwan, just 80 kilometres off China's coast, has long been a flashpoint in Sino-American ties, with Beijing refusing to rule out use of military force to gain control of the island and the US bound by law to provide it the means of self-defence.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio who was part of the delegation later tried to downplay the significance of the Chinese warning on Taiwan.
"US policy on the issue of Taiwan is unchanged as of today," he told NBC News. The Chinese "always raise it...we always make clear our position and we move on," he added.
A remark Rubio was thanked for on Friday by Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung.
Others compared Beijing’s posturing on Taiwan to some sort of shadow-boxing.
“When it comes to Taiwan, the big question is: will Xi take the plunge, or won't he?”, Brandstätter said.
“As long as the Chinese continue to buy chips manufactured in Taiwan, they won’t attack,” he added. “Moreover, the Taiwanese are very well-equipped militarily and would be anything but easy prey for Beijing.”
Trump's independence warning prompts response from Taiwan
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Taiwan's foreign ministry said in a statement following Trump's comments that "Beijing has no right to claim jurisdiction over Taiwan."
US President Donald Trump's warning to Taiwan against formally declaring independence from China has prompted a response from the island's foreign ministry, which reasserted that it's a "sovereign democratic country."
During a state visit to Beijing this week, Trump said that while his policy towards Taiwan had not changed, he was against the idea of it declaring independence from China and seemingly questioned why the US would send military support in the event of an invasion.
"I'm not looking to have somebody go independent and, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that," he told Fox News.
"I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down," he added.
On Saturday, Taiwan's foreign ministry responded to Trump's comments, thanking him for his support in peace efforts in the region but reasserting that it was a "sovereign democratic country."
"Beijing has no right to claim jurisdiction over Taiwan," its statement continued, adding that Taiwan's government would "continue to deepen cooperation with the United States, maintain peace through strength, and ensure that the security and stability of the Taiwan Strait are not threatened or undermined."
A spokesperson for Chinese President Xi Jinping said earlier this week that Taiwan was the "most important issue in China-U.S. relations" and key to the two nation's future dealings with each other.
China views Taiwan, which has its own democratically elected government, as a breakaway province that must be brought under the control of the mainland, and Xi has not ruled out the use of force.
US President Donald Trump's warning to Taiwan against formally declaring independence from China has prompted a response from the island's foreign ministry, which reasserted that it's a "sovereign democratic country."
During a state visit to Beijing this week, Trump said that while his policy towards Taiwan had not changed, he was against the idea of it declaring independence from China and seemingly questioned why the US would send military support in the event of an invasion.
"I'm not looking to have somebody go independent and, you know, we're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that," he told Fox News.
"I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down," he added.
On Saturday, Taiwan's foreign ministry responded to Trump's comments, thanking him for his support in peace efforts in the region but reasserting that it was a "sovereign democratic country."
"Beijing has no right to claim jurisdiction over Taiwan," its statement continued, adding that Taiwan's government would "continue to deepen cooperation with the United States, maintain peace through strength, and ensure that the security and stability of the Taiwan Strait are not threatened or undermined."
A spokesperson for Chinese President Xi Jinping said earlier this week that Taiwan was the "most important issue in China-U.S. relations" and key to the two nation's future dealings with each other.
China views Taiwan, which has its own democratically elected government, as a breakaway province that must be brought under the control of the mainland, and Xi has not ruled out the use of force.
Trump Says Tariffs Never Came Up During China Trip
By Brett Rowland
(The Center Square) – President Donald Trump said Friday that tariffs never came up during his two-day trip to China, even as his administration works to replace a tariff regime the U.S. Supreme Court struck down with a new one that could hit importers as early as July.
“We didn’t discuss tariffs,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as the plane refueled in Anchorage, Alaska. Asked why, he responded: “Wasn’t brought up.”
Trump described the Beijing visit as “a very historic couple of days,” saying China agreed to purchase more than 200 Boeing aircraft – with a promise of up to 750 planes if the initial order goes well – along with about 400 to 450 General Electric engines.
He also said Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and agricultural products are forthcoming, telling reporters, “the farmers are going to be very happy.”
Although Trump didn’t talk about import taxes with China, his administration is working at home to rebuild the president’s tariff policy.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who accompanied Trump on the trip, is leading that effort. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in April that a new round of tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a separate legal authority, could take effect as early as July. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office has opened investigations into 16 major U.S. trading partners, with hearings concluding last week.
Although Trump said tariffs didn’t come up while he was in China, the fight over import taxes has continued at home.
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s earlier tariffs in February, ruling he exceeded his authority by using a 1977 emergency powers law to impose worldwide import taxes. Trump responded within hours by invoking a separate provision of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% global import duty.
That new tariff, known as the Section 122 tariff, is itself now being challenged in court. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 on May 7 that Trump again exceeded his authority. A federal appeals court has temporarily frozen that ruling while it considers the administration’s appeal.
The Yale Budget Lab projected the 150-day Section 122 tariff would generate about $30 billion in revenue for the federal government.
Greer warned in a May 11 court declaration that removing the tariffs during the appeal could derail ongoing trade negotiations. “If certain key trading partners walk away from the table now, these negotiations may never resume, even if higher courts conclude that the temporary import surcharge was lawful,” he wrote.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has urged the administration to prioritize tariff relief, warning that businesses, especially small businesses, face “growing costs and disruptions.”
Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, made a similar point directly to Greer at an April 22 House Ways and Means Committee hearing.
“This tariff policy, it isn’t working for them and it is not a net positive – it is a net negative,” Miller told Greer, asking him to open a waiver office for businesses that can’t pass tariff costs on to consumers.
Greer declined, saying Trump “personally has been very direct that he doesn’t want to do this.”
Multiple economic studies have concluded that U.S. businesses and consumers bear nearly the entire cost of tariffs. Analyses from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and Duke University all reached that conclusion.
A The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll conducted in March found that 42% of voters think U.S. consumers bear most tariff costs, while just 12% said foreign countries primarily pay them.
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