New study from Jeonbuk National University finds current climate pledges may miss Paris targets
Analysis projects 2.48 °C warming by 2300, reinforcing the urgency for stronger national pledges ahead of the 2030 deadline
Jeonbuk National University, Sustainable Strategy team, Planning and Coordination Division
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Researchers utilized the RICE-2010 integrated assessment model to project long-term outcomes of current national climate pledges. The study finds that global warming could reach 2.48 °C by 2300, significantly exceeding the 2 °C limit established by the Paris Agreement.
view moreCredit: Taeyoung Jin from Jeonbuk National University, Korea
International efforts to tackle climate change reached a major milestone with the Paris Agreement, adopted by more than 190 countries. The agreement aims to limit the average global temperature rise to well below 2 °C, preferably to 1.5 °C. However, questions remain as to whether current national climate pledges are sufficient to meet these goals.
Against this backdrop, a new collaborative study by Assistant Professor Taeyoung Jin of Jeonbuk National University and researchers from Pusan National University evaluated the impact of current climate pledges. Their analysis shows that even if countries follow existing plans, global temperatures could reach 2.48 °C by 2300. This paper was made available online on November 17, 2025 and was published in Volume 174 of the journal Environmental Science & Policy on December 1, 2025.
“Even if every country keeps its current promises to cut carbon emissions, the world is still on track to warm by about 2.5 °C, which is higher than the internationally agreed 2 °C safety limit,” says Dr. Jin.
The team carried out their analysis using the Regional Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (RICE-2010). This model simulates how economic activity, emissions, and climate change interact across different global regions. It works through a feedback process in which economic growth leads to carbon emissions, emissions drive climate change, and climate impacts cause economic damage that can hinder future growth.
The researchers incorporated real-world policy commitments into the model, including nations’ 2030 emission reduction targets and long-term net-zero goals. They then projected outcomes up to the year 2300 under four scenarios: (1) a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with no emission cuts; (2) a social optimum scenario focused on maximizing welfare; (3) a net-zero scenario based on actual country commitments; and (4) a 1.5 °C-compliant pathway.
Under the BAU scenario, global temperatures could rise by as much as 7 °C by 2300. In contrast, the net-zero scenario—based on current pledges—limits warming to approximately 2.48 °C. While this represents significant progress compared to a no-action baseline, it still falls short of the 2 °C target.
The study also estimates that an additional reduction of approximately 5 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions by 2030 is required to meet the 2 °C goal. Without more rigorous mitigation, total global climate-related damages could reach nearly US$65 trillion by 2200. However, these risks could be mitigated to about US$19 trillion under the net-zero scenario, and further to roughly US$15 trillion under a pathway aligned with the 1.5 °C goal.
Without stronger action, the world could face more extreme heatwaves and floods, higher food and energy prices, and greater economic instability, say the researchers. However, if countries act earlier and cooperate more closely, long-term climate risks can be dramatically reduced.
“Our data reveal that today’s climate promises are important—but they are not enough. However, if countries act earlier and more decisively, the overall damage from climate change can be significantly reduced, even if it requires short-term economic adjustments,” reflects Dr. Jin.
These findings provide crucial evidence for policymakers as they prepare to update their national climate pledges, highlighting that it is high time for more ambitious and immediate action.
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Reference
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104280
About Jeonbuk National University
Founded in 1947, Jeonbuk National University (JBNU) is a leading Korean flagship university. Located in Jeonju, a city where tradition lives on, the campus embodies an open academic community that harmonizes Korean heritage with a spirit of innovation. Declaring the “On AI Era,” JBNU is at the forefront of digital transformation through AI-driven education, research, and administration. JBNU leads the Physical AI Demonstration Project valued at around $1 billion and spearheads national innovation initiatives such as RISE (Regional Innovation for Startup and Education) and the Global University 30, advancing as a global hub of AI innovation.
Website: https://www.jbnu.ac.kr/en/index.do
About the author
Dr. Taeyoung Jin serves as an Assistant Professor within the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy Engineering at Jeonbuk National University in Korea. His research centers on the analysis of energy and environmental policy through the lens of economic and system-based modeling. Dr. Jin explores the complex intersections between energy transitions, carbon mitigation strategies, and electricity market dynamics within broader economic frameworks. By leveraging quantitative models, his research provides critical insights to facilitate evidence-based policymaking in the areas of energy, climate action, and sustainable development.
Journal
Environmental Science & Policy
Method of Research
Computational simulation/modeling
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Evaluating global carbon neutrality commitments: An integrated assessment model approach to the 2 °C target
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