We have just 20 years to stop spiraling decline in British biodiversity
Over 200 species at risk of extinction but sustainable climate and land use policies would save many of them
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Plants species such as Grass of Parnassus are at risk from accelerating climate change and unsustainable land use
view moreCredit: Rob Cooke
There is a closing 20-year window in which decisions on climate and land use will determine the fate of dozens of native birds, butterflies and plants across Great Britain, which is already one of the most nature-depleted countries globally.
That is the warning in a new study led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), which, for the first time, predicts how different combined environmental changes would affect the survival of species within 1km square areas across the country.
The scientists say 2050 is a 'point of no return' where decisions on climate and land use made up to then will determine the trajectories of species trends in future decades – impacting other wildlife as well as nature’s contributions to people such as pollination and soil health.
These better-case scenarios would involve: strong action on emissions; sustainable land management, including reduced meat and dairy consumption; and an overall societal shift towards valuing the environment.
The worst-case scenario would involve increased fossil fuel burning, putting us on course for 4 degrees of warming, in addition to environmentally damaging agricultural and urban intensification. The experts predict this would mean:
- More than 200 species from three key groups – 196 plants (20% of existing British species), 31 birds (14%) and seven butterflies (12%) – would eventually become extinct in Britain; it would be a question of not if but when. These losses would be more than three times the historic extinction rate.
- Many areas of the country would lose up to 20% of their existing local species.
- 89% of habitats in Britain would look very different, with a much-changed make-up of plant species. There would be winners and losers, with some warm-loving species thriving and dominating habitats but many sensitive species declining.
The study focused on plants, birds and butterflies because of their vital and varied ecological roles but the authors warned that changes to these species would affect other wildlife within habitats.
Lead scientist Dr Rob Cooke, a senior ecologist at UKCEH, explained: “Some species that have been part of our landscapes for centuries are now at risk of being lost, such as the Merlin, the UK’s smallest bird of prey, Mountain Ringlet and Large Heath butterflies, as well as plants such as Burnt Orchid, Grass-of-Parnassus and Alpine Gentian.
“This will negatively affect local habitats and a range of ecological functions, from soil health and nutrient cycling to pollination and food production, with knock-on effects for wildlife and people.”
The scientists modelled six plausible future scenarios, involving different total greenhouse gas emissions and varying land management practices.
They found that even under mild warming scenarios, there will still be upheaval for biodiversity in Britain and it is likely already too late for some species due to the environmental changes that have already happened.
However, there is still hope for some species, with the study estimating that sustainable climate and land use policies would mean up to 69 fewer species – across plants, birds and butterflies – would eventually become extinct in Britain compared with the worst‑case scenario.
The research team included scientists from UKCEH, Natural History Museum, British Trust for Ornithology, Butterfly Conservation, Imperial College London, Stellenbosch University, Highlands Rewilding Ltd and Sol Plaatje University. The study, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, has been published in Nature Communications.
Rather than modelling individual species in isolation, the researchers projected how entire ecological communities change, allowing them to capture broad and reliable patterns in biodiversity loss.
Dr Cooke added: “Our results show that the next 20 years will be decisive. The choices we make now will set Britain on a path either towards accelerating biodiversity loss or towards nature recovery.”
– Ends –
Media enquiries
For an interview with one of the study authors or for further information, please contact Simon Williams, Media Relations Officer at UKCEH, via simwil@ceh.ac.uk or +44 (0)7920 295384.
Paper information
Cooke et al. 2026. Future scenarios for British biodiversity under climate and land-use change. Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-70064-4. Open access.
About the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH)
The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) is a leading independent research institute dedicated to understanding and transforming how we interact with the natural world. With over 600 researchers, we tackle the urgent environmental challenges of our time, such as climate change and biodiversity loss. Our evidence-based insights empower governments, businesses, and communities to make informed decisions, shaping a future where both nature and people thrive.
www.ceh.ac.uk / ukceh.bsky.social / LinkedIn: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Journal
Nature Communications
Article Title
2026. Future scenarios for British biodiversity under climate and land-use change
Article Publication Date
1-Apr-2026
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