The coronavirus outbreak is a ‘different kind of crisis,’ says Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz

PUBLISHED TUE, MAR 17 2020 Huileng Tan@HUILENG_TAN

KEY POINTS

On Sunday, the Fed slashed interest rates to near-zero and announced a $750 billion asset-purchasing program to shelter the economy from the impact of the virus.

“This is a different kind of crisis than normal crises. It’s just not a problem of aggregate demand,” said Joseph Stiglitz, former chief economist at the World Bank.

The spread of the coronavirus disease, formally known as COVID-19, has disrupted the global economy and supply chains as countries implement strict border controls, massive city-wide lockdowns and quarantines in order to contain the virus.


Aggressive policy action by the Federal Reserve is “obviously not” enough to help the U.S. avert a downturn caused by the coronavirus outbreak, said Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics.

“Given the nature of the uncertainties, given the nature of the collapsing incomes of so many people, it can help stabilize financial markets at best and it’s clear that it didn’t do that,” Stiglitz told CNBC on Tuesday.

On Sunday, the Fed slashed interest rates to near-zero and announced a $750 billion asset-purchasing program to shelter the economy from the impact of the virus. Despite that, the markets crashed Monday — with the Dow suffering its worst day since the “Black Monday” market crash in 1987 and its third-worst day ever.


While the situation might have been worse without the Fed’s moves, “clearly it didn’t stabilize the stock markets,” said Stiglitz, who is a former chief economist at the World Bank.

The problem is that “this is a different kind of crisis than normal crises. It’s just not a problem of aggregate demand,” he said.

“Because of the disease, people are shutting down their businesses. In the United States, restaurants in New York City have been closed,” said Stiglitz. “More demand is not going to save that particular problem.”

The spread of the coronavirus disease, formally known as COVID-19, has disrupted the global economy and supply chains as countries implement strict border controls, massive city-wide lockdowns and quarantines in order to contain the virus.

There are now at least 168,019 cases of the coronavirus worldwide, according to data from the World Health Organization. At least 6,610 have died from the disease.

Even though financial institutions have assured that their positions are strong amid the market rout, Stiglitz said no bank would be spared from the impact of a major economic downturn even if it is adequately capitalized.

“People wouldn’t be able to repay their loans, people wouldn’t be taking out new loans, businesses wouldn’t be taking out new loans. The business model of banks is very sensitive to the business cycle,” he said.
Give help to targeted segments

Stiglitz advocated for targeted assistance to help people and sectors weather the public health emergency.

“It is clearly a case where targeted fiscal policy is what is needed. It’s been true for a long while that monetary policies has had only have limited efficacy,” said the Columbia University professor, who is also chief economist at the Roosevelt Institute.

The support should focus on those who will be “facing enormous stress,” strengthening the capacity of the healthcare system and encouraging people to not interact, as well as get tested and not show up at work if they are sick, said Stiglitz.

“We are going to need to get large amounts of money — you might call it ‘helicopter money’ — to those people who are going to be under enormous stress,” he said, citing the example of Hong Kong, which announced a 10,000 Hong Kong dollar ($1,287) cash payout to all permanent residents above 18 years old.

In fact, large government spending in today’s pressing circumstances while paying no attention to deficit “is correct,” he said.

“The deficit is something that we will have to deal with in the future. When we went to World War II, we didn’t ask ‘could we afford it,’” said Stiglitz. “We spent the money as we needed it.”

“We had to make sure that we weren’t overspending in the sense that we had inflation. We had to manage the economy.”

Trump had ‘no idea’ about the seriousness of coronavirus crisis: Stiglitz

WATCH NOW VIDEO 2:55

Public health emergency declared in Alberta

'The situation is very serious': COVID-19 pandemic prompts Alberta to declare a state of public health emergency

Matthew Black CTV News Edmonton March 17, 2020 

EDMONTON -- Alberta Premier Jason Kenney declared a public state of health emergency on Tuesday in an effort to combat the growing spread of COVID-19.

"The situation is very serious," said Kenney. "Decisive action is needed and we are taking that action."

"We have to take more aggressive measures to contain the virus, more aggressive social distancing measures."

Kenney also announced a number of new measures on social distancing as recommended by provincial health authorities, including a ban on any organized gatherings of more than 50 people.

Albertans are now prohibited from visiting a number of venues including: public recreation centres, casinos, bingo halls, bars, nightclubs, fitness centres, arenas, museums, and indoor children's play centres.

Sit-down restaurants, pubs, delis and coffee shops are now limited to a maximum of 50 people or 50 per cent of their maximum capacity, whichever is lower.

"Drive-thru, take-out and delivery will still be permitted," Kenney said adding the province has changed regulations allowing restaurants to engage in off-sales of liquor.

Conferences, weddings and funerals are not exempt from the declaration and should be cancelled, said Kenney.

He said the new restrictions go into effect immediately.

"I recognize these measures will have a profound impact on the lives of Albertans. But they are frankly necessary in the face of this growing pandemic."

Venues deemed to be essential services including grocery stores, airports, homeless shelters, soup kitchens and the Alberta legislature building will remain open.

The government also announced $60 million in funding to be sent to social agencies and another $30 million devoted to supporting seniors.

Kenney announced more government spending measures to deal with the economic implications of the pandemic will be announced tomorrow.

"This is a serious moment in our history," said Kenney. "This province is resilient and we are ready for the test."

Kenney said the availability of trained personnel remains a concern for health authorities as the pandemic continues.

He said the province may bring back recently retired medical professionals or cancel vacation for existing staff to boost the province's health care capacity.

WHAT DOES A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY MEAN?

The declaration comes under the province's Public Health Act which typically permits a 30-day period for the state of emergency, which can be extended to 90 days.

Kenney said the declaration is limited to health care powers, where section 52 of the act allows a 60-day state of emergency to "prompt co-ordination of action or special regulation of persons or property is required in order to protect the public health."

The Emergency Management Act also allows the government to take central control of a crisis by enacting a number of emergency powers over a 28-day period, including:
Putting into operation an emergency plan or program.

Authorize or require local authorities to put into effect their own emergency plans.
Acquire or use any property necessary to prevent or alleviate the effects of the emergency.
Control or prohibit travel to or from any area of Alberta.

Procure or fix prices for food, clothing, fuel, equipment, or other essential supplies.
Order the evacuation of persons and property from any area affected by a disaster.

Kenney said his government is not enacting all aspects of the act's powers, instead using the declaration to aid health care administration. He said the other powers could be used in the future if needed.

The legislation permits for a 90-day period if the order is "in respect of a pandemic influenza."

In 2016, the province declared a provincial state of emergency in response to the Fort McMurray fires. The state of emergency came into effect on May 4, 2016 and lasted for 58 days, until July 1, 2016.

Earlier Tuesday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared a state of emergency in his province, including a ban on public events of over 50 people including parades, events and services within places of worship until March 31.

COVID-19 Cases in Alberta
Infogram

'This is a serious moment in our history': Alberta Premier Jason Kenney declares public health emergency

Social Sharin

• LinkedI

Bars, casinos to shut immediately while restaurants, coffee shops to get seating limits

CBC News · Posted: Mar 17, 2020

The decision to put the province under a state of public emergency is part of Alberta's effort in a bid to slow the rising number of coronavirus infections. 3:02Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has declared a state of public health emergency as the province works to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

"This declaration is meant to empower authorities under the Public Health Act to effectively manage the COVID response," Kenney said.

"Decisive action is needed and we are taking that action."

Kenney made the announcement Tuesday at the Alberta legislature.

Alberta's Provincial Operations Centre has been elevated from a level 3 to a level 4, the highest level, Kenney said.

he funding will go to adult homeless shelters, women's emergency shelters and the Family and Community Support Services (FCSS) program, which supports municipalities and civil society organizations in providing services to vulnerable Albertans.

Bars, nightclubs and casinos will close immediately.

Seating in restaurants and coffee shops will be limited to a maximum of 50 people or 50-per-cent capacity, whichever is lower, he said.

Take-out, delivery and drive-through service is permitted.

Licensed facilities will also be permitted to deliver liquor, in part to help them sell off inventory.

"We apologize to operators of these establishments for the suddenness of this, although I think they've seen it coming," Kenney said.

Mass gatherings are now limited to no more than 50 attendees. This includes worship gatherings and family events such as weddings, the province said in a news release.

Kenney said funerals with more than 50 people should also be cancelled.

Grocery stores, shopping centres, health-care facilities, airports, the legislature and other essential services are not included. Soup kitchens and homeless shelters will also not be affected by the order.

Albertans are prohibited from attending public recreational facilities and private entertainment facilities, including gyms, swimming pools, arenas, science centres, museums, art galleries, community centres, children's play centres, casinos, racing entertainment centres, and bingo halls.

Not-for-profit community kitchens, soup kitchens and religious kitchens are exempt, but sanitization practices are expected to be in place and support will be in place for this practice

The decision to put the province under a state of public health emergency is part of Alberta's effort to try to slow the rising number of coronavirus infections.

"This is a serious moment in our history and COVID-19 will test us," Kenney said. "We will do whatever it takes to slow the spread of this virus."
$60 million in emergency funding

Municipalities, charitable and non-profit organizations providing social services support will immediately get $60 million to help their COVID-19 response, the government news release said.
The money will be dispersed before March 31, Kenney said. He said he has appointed Jeremy Nixon, former executive director of The Mustard Seed, as parliamentary secretary for civil society.

Nixon will work with charities and non-profits to ensure they are helping to reach out to seniors and other vulnerable people who are in isolation.

Half of the $60 million will be dedicated to immediate support to women's shelters and homeless shelters.

The other $30 million will extend support services to seniors and other communities who are isolated because of the pandemic or otherwise affected.

Don't hoard groceries, Kenney says

Kenney said he has been assured by the Retail Council of Canada, and chains such as Loblaws and Walmart, that supply chains and food security are not compromised, so there is no need for people to engage in hoarding or panic buying.

"We do recommend that people have enough food on hand to cope through a couple of weeks, given the likelihood that many people will be affected by self-isolation for 14 days," he said. "But there is no logical reason for people to go out and buy weeks and weeks or months of supplies."

He commended Alberta retailers who have set specific hours for seniors to do their shopping in safety, and encouraged all other retailers to follow suit.
Emergency Management Act may be needed

Kenney said officials may decide to invoke other powers under the Emergency Management Act.

Those powers could be used to prevent people from leaving or entering the province, or allow authorities to seize property, he said

"It's conceivable that if the pandemic goes in the wrong direction, that we may need to effectively use hotels to house people for quarantine, for example," Kenney said.

"The [legislation] would give us those authorities. We do not believe that they are currently necessary but I have told officials that if they believe we need those powers, they should recommend it and we should invoke that."

Earlier Tuesday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared a state of emergency in that province


Public health emergency declared in Alberta

NOW PLAYING
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney declares a state of emergency amid COVID-19 pandemic.
What does public health emergency mean for you?COVID-19 Cases in Alberta

NOW PLAYING
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney lists the aggressive new measures to control the spread of COVID-19. Full coverage at CTVNews.ca/Coronavirus

Tracking every case of COVID-19 in Canada

BREAKING
Alberta declares state of public health emergency over COVID-19

BREAKING
PM Trudeau says emergency measures are under consideration

LIVE @ 3:30 P.M.
Alberta provides COVID-19 update

WATCH LIVE
CTV News Channel ongoing coverage and updates on the COVID-19 outbreak

How U.S. coronavirus testing stalled: Flawed tests, red tape and resistance to using the millions of tests produced by the WHO

Peter Whoriskey, Neena Satija


When Olfert Landt heard about the novel coronavirus, he got busy.

© Joshua Roberts/Reuters Robert Redfield, director of the 

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, testifies about

 coronavirus preparedness on Capitol Hill on March 12.

Founder of a small Berlin-based company, the ponytailed 54-year-old first raced to help German researchers come up with a diagnostic test and then spurred his company to produce and ship more than 1.4 million tests by the end of February for the World Health Organization.

“My wife and I have been working 16 hours a day, seven days a week, ever since,” Landt said by phone about 1 a.m. Friday, Berlin time. “Our days are full.”

By contrast, over the same critical period, U.S. efforts to distribute tests ground nearly to a halt, and the country’s inability to produce them left public health officials with limited means to determine where and how fast the virus was spreading. From mid-January until Feb. 28, fewer than 4,000 tests from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used out of more 160,000 produced.

Subscribe to the Post Most newsletter: Today’s most popular stories on The Washington Post

The United States’ struggles, in Landt’s view, stemmed from the fact the country took too long to use private companies to develop the tests. The coronavirus pandemic was too big and moving too fast for the CDC to develop its own tests in time, he said.

“There are 10 companies in the U.S. who could have developed the tests for them," Landt said. “Commercial companies will run to an opportunity like this.”

As the coronavirus continues to spread across the United States, causing more than 80 deaths and over 4,000 confirmed cases, the struggles that overwhelmed the nation’s testing are becoming clearer.

First, the CDC moved too slowly to tap into the expertise of academia and private companies such as Landt’s, experts said. For example, it wasn’t until last week that large companies such as Roche and Thermo Fisher won approval from the Food and Drug Administration to produce their own tests.

Moreover, while FDA and CDC officials have attributed some of the testing delays to their determination to meet exacting scientific standards they said were needed to protect public health, the government effort was nevertheless marred by a widespread manufacturing problem that stalled U.S. testing for most of February.

The CDC has yet to fully explain the nature of the manufacturing problem but told The Washington Post on Monday that the design could also have resulted in flawed tests.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees the CDC, said earlier this month that it is investigating the defect in many of the initial coronavirus test kits.

It has been long-standing practice for CDC scientists in emergencies to develop the first diagnostic tests, in part because the CDC has access to samples of the virus before others, officials said. Later, private companies that win FDA authorization can scale up efforts to meet demand.

In responses for this story, CDC spokesman Benjamin Haynes said in a statement: “This process has not gone as smoothly as we would have liked. ... CDC has a responsibility to ensure that all CDC laboratory research and development activities, testing processes, and data are the highest possible quality and are traceable, reproducible, and documented with appropriate rigor.”

He said the manufacturing problem may have arisen because of the test’s design or because of contamination.

Finally, acknowledging that there “is a great need for test manufacturers to rapidly make testing available,” the statement said that “commercial labs are working to develop their own tests and hopefully will be available soon for clinical settings throughout the country.”

But critics say government officials should have moved much more quickly to bring on expertise from outside the CDC.

“The CDC has good scientists and they are proud,” Landt said. “But in this situation, they took the wrong approach.”
‘We can be proud. ... We moved quickly’

At the very beginning, U.S. efforts to develop a diagnostic test for the coronavirus kept pace with the rest of the world.

Shortly after publication of the virus’s genome in early January, German researchers announced they had designed a diagnostic test. Then, within days, scientists at the CDC said they’d developed one, too, and even used it detect the first U.S. case.

“We actually do have laboratory diagnostics here at CDC that are stood up,” Nancy Messonnier, the CDC’s director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on Jan. 17.

From there, however, U.S. efforts fell quickly behind, especially when compared with the efforts of the WHO, which has distributed more than 1 million tests to countries around the world based in part on the method developed by the German researchers.

As early as Feb. 6, four weeks after the genome of the virus was published, the WHO had shipped 250,000 diagnostic tests to 70 laboratories around the world, the agency said.

By comparison, the CDC at that time was shipping about 160,000 tests to labs across the nation — but then the manufacturing troubles were discovered, and most would be deemed unusable because they produced confusing results. Over the next three weeks, only about 200 of those tests sent to labs would be used, according to CDC statistics.

In fact, the U.S. efforts to distribute a working test stalled until Feb. 28, when federal officials revised the CDC test and began loosening up FDA rules that had limited who could develop coronavirus diagnostic tests.

During that critical interval, the CDC repeatedly assured the public that progress was being made, even as public health officials around the country began to raise alarms about the shortage of tests.

In January, CDC officials boasted during the coronavirus briefings that the United States has “one of the strongest public health systems in the world.”

At briefing on Feb. 12, Messonnier said “rapid development of a diagnostic and rapid deployment to the states” is “clearly a success.”

On Feb. 14, she said: “We can be proud. … We moved quickly.”

On Feb. 21, Messonnier acknowledged problems with the testing kits, but described the issues as “normal.”

But by that point, public health labs around the nation had run very few of the CDC tests, according to the agency. Health officials across the country began pleading for a test that worked, or at least the authorization to use another test.

© John Moore/AFP/Getty Images Flowers adorn trees outside the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash. As of March 15, 29 covid-19 deaths had been associated with the home.
‘You can’t track what you don’t see’

In the absence of tests, the calls for the United States to tap into the expertise of academia, hospitals and private companies, such as Landt’s, grew more insistent.

“It took [the CDC] a while to come up with the test, honestly,” said Alex Greninger of the University of Washington.

His lab had developed its own test and began seeking approval to use it on patients on Feb. 18. But that test, along with others that had been developed in various academic centers and hospitals, could not be used on patients until the FDA relaxed its testing rules on Feb 29.

He noted that many of the state public health labs had also figured out how to use the CDC test properly — by tossing one of its components — but were not allowed to actually do so until the FDA approved the workaround that same day.

“We had all these state public health labs that had a perfectly good [test] on their hands, and they knew it, they were upset,” Greninger said.

“What surprised me the most was to hear how much emphasis there is at CDC on quality control — to the point where, in my opinion, it really compromised surveillance,” said Michelle Mello, a professor of law and medicine and Stanford who recently wrote a paper about the delays in testing for coronavirus in the United States. “You can’t track what you don’t see.”

On March 7, FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn stressed the importance of quality, noting that diagnostic tests in some other countries have been flawed. He did not specify which countries he meant, but China’s test may have produced lots of false positives, according to a recent publication by Chinese researchers.

“What’s important here is that we have a test that the American people can trust," Hahn said.

But even a small firm, like Landt’s, is capable of producing a lot of high-quality tests and could have helped the efforts in the U.S., Landt said. His company, known as TIB for TIB Molbiol Syntheselabor GmbH, based their tests on the methods the German researchers published in January.

Though it has just 55 employees globally, TIB had experience in developing tests for SARS and the swine flu. It began producing the coronavirus tests in mid-January, just days after the Chinese researchers posted the virus’s genome, Landt said. It can produce about a million of them a week.

As wearying as his schedule has been, Landt said, “I like the feedback from people.”

© Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg Olfert Landt, founder of TIB 

Molbiol Syntheselabor GmbH, poses for a photograph 

with a coronavirus diagnostic test kit at his production 

facility in Berlin on March 6.

Labs waited weeks after tests malfunctioned

Exactly what went wrong with the CDC’s first tests in the first critical weeks hasn’t been fully explained by the agency, aside from the possibility that the design was flawed or that the tests were contaminated.

While such diagnostic tests can vary in the specifics, they typically involve trying to match the genetics of a patient sample, taken from nasal and throat swabs, against those of the virus.

In the case of the CDC method, the test consisted of attempts to match a patient sample against three distinct pieces of the virus’s genetic code. A patient was declared to have coronavirus if each of those three attempts came back as a match.

The trouble with the CDC test arose because the third attempt at a match, known as the N3 component, produced an inconclusive result even on known samples of the coronavirus.

While the cause of the problem in the CDC test may yet be unknown, it meant that in the weeks before Feb. 28, the public health labs were left waiting for a usable test.

By Feb. 8, public health labs were notifying the CDC of troubles with the test, and four days later, about a week after the first CDC tests had shipped, officials acknowledged the problem during a news conference.

“Some of the states identified some inconclusive laboratory results,” Messonnier said Feb. 12. “We are working closely with them to correct the issues and as we’ve said all along, speed is important, but equally or more important in this situation is making sure that the laboratory results are correct.”

In the following weeks, CDC officials repeatedly said that they were working to resolve the manufacturing problem. Then on Feb. 28, the agency announced that it would just scrap the N3 component of the test that had been causing trouble. Officials also contacted a private company called Integrated DNA Technologies and asked it to make new test kits, the company said.

While the problems with the CDC test persisted, the vast majority of testing had to be done at the CDC’s Atlanta lab, and the numbers being tested were woefully below what experts said was needed.

As late as Feb. 27, only 203 specimen tests had been run out of state labs; another 3,125 had been run out of the CDC.

James Lawler, director of the global center for health security and an epidemiologist at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, was one of the infectious disease specialists who flew out to meet the Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers in Japan and flew back with them to the United States. Lawler said the problem was not just in the manufacturing of the test but in the design.

In his view, the test has design problems that make it too difficult for many labs to make it work unless they have perfect conditions.

He said that even though the University of Nebraska Medical Center — a world renowned infectious disease institution that houses the state’s public health lab — was able to get the CDC version of the test to work, the Nebraska center developed its own test based on the German lab design published by the WHO.

“It’s very nuanced and complicated to make a diagnostic test,” Lawler said. "If you don’t go back and fix things ... and realize, ‘Hey, maybe I should try a different target,’ that’s when you can run into problems. ... Everything down to the details of the humidity and temperature in some people’s laboratories is going to be different. "

If the design of the test is flawed, he said, "all of those conditions may come into play. Some people have been able to get reproducibly good results and others haven’t.”


Concerns about scarce testing continue

Shortly after Feb. 28, when CDC officials announced the decision to reconfigure the CDC test, the number of those tests run by public health labs soared, from roughly 25 or fewer per day to as many as 1,500. At the same time, authorities were allowing other facilities to use their own tests — including Cleveland Clinic, Stanford and Greninger’s at the University of Washington.

Even so, complaints of testing scarcity continued to roll in last week. And even as tests become more widely available, experts and officials have cautioned that a backlog will continue because of critical shortages: swabs to collect patient samples, machines to extract the genetic material from the swabs, workers qualified to run the tests.

Even if those problems are resolved, however, those critical early delays, when the CDC was struggling to issue tests to the states, significantly damaged efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus, experts said.

In a CDC tele-briefing on Feb. 29 that included some local and state public health directors, local officials lamented the initial inability to test. A reporter asked: “Did the lack of testing capabilities delay finding out who these cases were, particularly the person who died?”

In answering, Jeff Duchin, the public health chief in King County, Washington, where 37 deaths have been reported, suggested the lack of tests was critical, in addition to the fact that authorities had limited who could be tested. Initially, they had said tests would only be used for those who had traveled in affected regions of the globe or had otherwise been in contact with an infected person.

“So, you know, if we had the ability to test earlier, I’m sure we would have identified patients earlier in the community, possibly at hospitals, but we were also looking at not only availability of testing but whether patients met criteria for testing,” Duchin said.” So, given the fact that we just recently acquired our availability of testing and new criteria were published, this person was brought to our attention.”

Thomas Frieden, an infectious disease physician who served as CDC director under former president Barack Obama, called on Sunday for an “independent group” to investigate what went wrong with the CDC’s testing process. He said in the past, the CDC moved quickly to produce tests for diseases such as H1N1, or swine flu.

“We were able to get test kits out fast,” Frieden said on CNN. “Something went wrong here. We have to find out why so we can prevent that in the future.”

Frieden said the agency has been muzzled under President Trump and despite the multitude of problems with the rollout of testing, “the CDC is still the greatest public health institution in the world.”

Climate report warns "time is fast running out" to avoid worst

CBS 3/10/2020 

The United Nations' weather and climate agency is out with its annual State of the Climate report, and it says "the tell-tale physical signs of climate change" are everywhere. The report documents unprecedented heat waves, fires and floods over the past year, and warns that there is likely more to come.

© Getty Images / iStockphoto heat wave

In the report, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) cited the historic fires in Australia and the Amazon, record-shattering heat waves in Europe, and soaring levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In a statement released with the report, the leader of the United Nations calls climate change "the defining challenge of our time" and said "time is fast running out for us to avert the worst impacts of climate disruption."

"We are currently way off track to meeting either the 1.5°C or 2°C targets that the Paris Agreement calls for," said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, referring to the goal of limiting the rise in global temperatures to no more than 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. "This report outlines the latest science and illustrates the urgency for far-reaching climate action."

10 common myths about climate change — and what science really says

In order to reach those targets the world would have to rein in our dependence on burning fossil fuels, which release heat-trapping greenhouse gases. However, carbon dioxide (CO2) levels once again hit a record in 2019 — nearly 40% higher now than before the Industrial Revolution and the highest levels in 3 million years.

More than 90% of the heat from these excess greenhouse gases is trapped in the oceans, and that has resulted in another record-breaking year for ocean heat content. Even though there was no El Nino, a climate pattern which allows ocean heat to escape into the atmosphere, 2019 still ended up being the globe's second-warmest year on record. In fact, the five warmest years on record worldwide occurred over the most recent five years.

The impact on humans is growing, with climate variability and extreme weather "among the key drivers of the recent rise in global hunger," the UN said in a press statement.

The report also highlighted the most consequential climate-change-driven events over the past year.

Historic fires

If there's one thing most of the planet will remember about 2019, it's the out-of-control fires. From Australia to the Amazon to California, devastating fires dominated news headlines for weeks.

As shown in the recent CBSN Originals documentary "Complicit: The Amazon Fires," slash-and-burn techniques for deforestation are rapidly fracturing the vital rainforest. Scientists warn it may be only a few years before the ecosystem reaches a tipping point and transitions into a more open savanna, with vastly less ability to absorb greenhouse gases and buffer the Earth against climate change.

In Australia's worst fire season on record, 46 million acres were burned, more than 1 billion animals died and the estimated price tag is in the tens of billions of dollars. A international study recently concluded that the Australian bushfires were made much more likely and more intense due to human-caused climate change.
Heat waves

The same mechanism that set the stage for the historic bushfire season in Australia also supercharged the heat wave which helped fuel those fires. A phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole, with cool waters near Australia and warm waters near east Africa, combined with a climate system spiked by human heating to cause a record-shattering heat wave in Australia.

The WMO report notes that Australia experienced the entire country's hottest day on record at 107 degrees Fahrenheit in December, with 2019 featuring the 7 hottest days on record for the nation.

Europe also experienced two historic heat waves this past summer, in late June and late July. In France, a national record high temperature of 115 degrees Fahrenheit shattered the old record by 3.5 degrees. National records were also set in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom.

Not even Antarctica was spared from record breaking heat, with temperatures of 69 and 65 degrees Fahrenheit reported on two separate days in February. The unusual warmth is rapidly melting ice and fracturing ice shelves.
Ocean heat

As mentioned above, ocean heat content (the amount of heat stored in the ocean) set a new record in 2019. While ocean waters help absorb heat and buffer the atmosphere from a rapidly warming climate, that heating takes its toll on the oceans. The report notes that 84% of oceans experienced a marine heat wave in 2019.
© Provided by CBS News

During this past summer a huge ocean heat blob extended from Alaska to California to Hawaii, making for sweltering summer heat in Hawaii with hundreds of record hot temperatures set.

Currently, ocean heat is building up over Australia's Great Barrier Reef, where NOAA Reef Watch predicts that a mass bleaching event, perhaps the most widespread ever, is now underway. The WMO report says that the world's coral reefs are projected to decline to as low as 10% of their former cover when the Earth reaches 1.5° Celsius of global warming, and to less than 1% of their former extent at 2° Celsius of warming.

So far the Earth's atmosphere has warmed by 1.1° Celsius since pre-industrial times. We will likely reach 1.5° of warming in just the next couple of decades.
© Provided by CBS News


Massive floods

While Australia was searing in heat, drought and fire, the other side of the Indian Ocean was suffering from the opposite: torrential rains and flooding in east Africa. Also related to the extreme Indian Ocean Dipole, enhanced by a warmer climate, the unusually heavy rain in late 2019 contributed to the worst desert locust outbreak in the Horn of Africa region in 25 years and the most serious in 70 years for Kenya. This locust outbreak is expected to spread further through June, destroying crops and posing a severe threat to food security.

As the climate continues to warm, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. This results in more extreme rain events — and the United States has not been spared. 2019 was one of the wettest years on record for the U.S. with historic floods plaguing the middle of the nation for months last spring. Total economic losses from flooding in the United States in 2019 were estimated at $20 billion.
Tropical cyclones and displacement

There were 105 named tropical systems worldwide in 2019. The strongest storms of the year were Typhoon Halong in the western Pacific with winds of 190 mph and the now infamous Hurricane Dorian, which struck the Bahamas with winds of 185 mph.

Recent research shows that the extra heat being stored by the oceans is powering stronger tropical cyclones with heavier rainfalls. That trend is expected to continue in the coming decades.

As a direct result of cyclones, especially a select few major disasters, the WMO report says 6.7 million people were displaced just between January and June of 2019.

For the full year, the number was forecast to reach close to 22 million, up from 17.2 million in 2018.

The biggest impact events were Cyclone Idai in Southeast Africa, Cyclone Fani in South Asia and Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas. CBS News' "60 Minutes" recently revisited the hard-hit Abaco Islands in the Bahamas to see how residents are recovering.

Climate scientists are in clear consensus that the devastating climate events of 2019 are in part driven by human-caused climate change, and they say such disasters will only get worse until humanity manages to decarbonize our economies and reduce excess greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This climate challenge is herculean, but one that is necessary to preserve Earth's fragile life systems.


Floods and fires show 'time is fast running out' to address climate change

Denise Chow
3/10/2020
The world is significantly falling short when it comes to efforts to curb climate change, according to a new report released Tuesday by the World Meteorological Organization.

© Johannes Eisele Image: TOP SHOT-US-WEATHER-CLIMATE-HEATWAVE

The intergovernmental organization's assessment evaluated a range of so-called global climate indicators in 2019, including land temperatures, ocean temperatures, greenhouse gas emissions, sea-level rise and melting ice. The report finds that most of these indicators are increasing, which means the planet is veering way off track in trying to control the pace of global warming.


"Climate change is the defining challenge of our time," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement. "Time is fast running out for us to avert the worst impacts of climate disruption and protect our societies from the inevitable impacts to come."

And there were plenty of disruptions and impacts last year. The report, which linked events such as heat waves, flooding and extreme weather to climate change, highlighted how these disruptions have affected human health and security.

Two severe heat waves in Europe last summer, for example, led to 1,462 deaths in the affected regions, according to the report. The study also estimated that 22 million people were displaced by flooding and other extreme weather events in 2019, up from 17.2 million in 2018.

The report also confirmed that 2019 was the second warmest year on record. Global average temperatures last year were 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Last year fell shy of the record held by 2016, but the report noted that 2015 to 2019 are the five warmest years in recorded history. And since the 1980s, each subsequent decade has been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850.

© Sean Gallup Image: Western Greenland Hit By Unseasonably Warm Weather

The meteorological organization highlighted that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases continued to rise last year, with early projections based on the first three quarters of 2019 indicating that global carbon dioxide emissions likely increased by 0.6 percent.

"Given that greenhouse gas levels continue to increase, the warming will continue," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas, said in a statement. "A recent decadal forecast indicates that a new annual global temperature record is likely in the next five years. It is a matter of time."

The report outlined the impacts of human-caused warming on the world's oceans, which play a crucial role in the planet's carbon cycle by storing carbon and absorbing heat. According to the meteorological organization, oceans absorb about 90 percent of the heat trapped in the atmosphere from increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Last year, the report found, oceans hit their warmest level in recorded history.

Warmer land and ocean temperatures also drive the melting of sea ice and glaciers, which can speed sea level rise around the globe. Both Antarctica and the Arctic recorded low sea ice extents in 2019, and sea levels continue to rise at an accelerated pace, according to the report.

"This is exposing coastal areas and islands to a greater risk of flooding and the submersion of low-lying areas," Taalas said in the statement.

The trends highlighted in the report indicate that the world is failing to meet the goal set out by the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.

"We are currently way off track to meeting either the 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C targets that the Paris Agreement calls for," Guterres said in the statement. "This report outlines the latest science and illustrates the urgency for far-reaching climate action."

---30---

Displaced by fire, Amazon's migrants fight to rebuild their homes 

 

was destroyed by fire, tents and makeshift homes are all

 that is left of Lima, Peru’s only indigenous community, Cantagallo.
 

Artist and community leader, Olinda Silvano migrated to Lima from Peru’s

 Amazon as a child. She says she will not stop fighting for her destroyed community.
 

More than 2,000 Shipibo migrants from Peru’s Amazon remain displaced

 after a fire tore through their Lima community in 2016.

Once home to 238 families, displaced indigenous Shipibos dig up rocks 

and debris to erect tarp huts in their Lima slum of Cantagallo.

Juan Agustin, a political and spiritual leader for his tribe,

 has advocated for his adopted home in Cantagallo for decades.

In recent months, native migrants from Peru’s Amazon have returned 

to their destroyed Lima slum to demand housing justice from the state.

Cantagallo, once a thriving Amazonian slum in the capital,

 Lima, has become a squatter camp in recent months.

 © Neil Giardino for ABC News

After it

Olinda Silvano lives with the painful memory of her father’s blood-stained shirt and his dying message, "Fight for Cantagallo."

"He opened the door thinking it was a neighbor from the community," Silvano recalled, "But it was a group of men sent in to kick us out. They hit him until he was bleeding."

Seeking escape from dire poverty and an education for their children, a group of Shipibo-Konibo people came to the capital in the 1990s, where they settled atop a landfill along the polluted Rimac River, mere blocks from central Lima’s government palace.

Far from home in the sweltering jungle surrounding the Ucayali River, and despite the hardship of rural to urban migration, their community grew. The tribe built a bilingual Spanish-Shipibo school and displayed their art, cuisine, and traditional medicine in this sprawling coastal city of nine million.

But in 2016, their home was destroyed by a massive fire. Today, Cantagallo’s 238 Shipibo families are displaced and embittered after government promises to rebuild have stagnated for years. Cantagallo residents and advocates say the delays underscore the vulnerability of indigenous communities throughout Latin America, which often lack title to their land.

Despite pledges by two Peruvian presidents and lapsed commitment from the nation’s top housing authority to rebuild Cantagallo, indigenous residents here are leery of promises, which they say are too often hobbled by entrenched corruption and turbulent politics.

In recent months over a thousand Shipibos have returned to their razed community to demand action from the state, which they say has misled them about the project’s fate for too long.

MORE: Catching illegal loggers deep in the Amazon with ‘Guardians of the Amazon’: Part 1

"Politicians deceive us and lie to us. Presidents and mayors have come and gone, each with promises," said 50-year-old Silvano, who serves as Cantagallo’s culture secretary.

Political corruption is systemic in this South American nation of 30 million. Soon after Peru’s former president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Lima’s former mayor Luis Castañeda made promises to rebuild Cantagallo after the 2016 fire, both politicians were separately accused of accepting illegal campaign funds from the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht.

Infrastructure and housing projects have stalled in Peru as a result of the international corruption scandal, which has incriminated four Peruvian presidents and dozens of leaders across Latin America.

But in 2017, Peru’s Ministry of Housing announced the $6 million investment in a new Shipibo-Konibo housing project, which would consist of single-family homes, a new bilingual school, and a fairground for the sale of the tribe’s well-known art.

Residents, still living amid the charred wreckage of the fire, were given a monthly stipend for temporary housing. But their impatience grew as the plan stalled throughout 2018 and housing stipends ran dry. Delays extended well into 2019, when the project was officially postponed.

MORE: Indigenous ‘Guardians’ targeted after trying to protect their land: Part 2

Furious residents returned in protest, demanding answers from Peru’s embattled president, Martin Vizcarra, whose decision to dissolve congress last September resulted in the loss of vital cabinet ministers and a weakened government.

Once a proud and tumbledown hillside slum adorned with murals of ancestral Shipibo artwork called kené, Cantagallo is now a squatter camp, lacking water and sanitation.

On a recent evening, dispossessed residents put up makeshift homes of wooden stakes and plastic.

Like many of her Shipibo neighbors, Fidelia Ahuanari, 42, was searching for a plot of land to assemble a tent. She stopped and motioned toward the Shipibo elementary school, now stripped of its roof, doors and windows.

"I was the first teacher in this school," she said. "I’m proud to teach my culture. But I’m angry about how the state treats indigenous people. Now is the time to fight."

Down the street, in one of the few Shipibo homes spared from the fire, Juan Agustin performed an indigenous healing ceremony with ayahuasca, a psychoactive vine native to the Amazon.

"Cantagallo is a little piece of the Amazon in the heart of Lima. It’s a living culture," he said.

Agustin, 50, is a professor of the Shipibo language and has held various leadership positions in Cantagallo over the past two decades.

"Lima is a strong acculturating force. It westernizes and pressures ethnic groups to leave their cultures behind," he said. "The most important way to ensure this doesn’t happen is through territory."

Over a million residents dispersed throughout Lima identify as indigenous, or of ethnic origin predating Spanish colonization, though Cantagallo is the city’s only cohesive indigenous community.

The Shipibo-Konibo are the third-largest tribe in the Peruvian Amazon. Numbering nearly 30,000, most live in riverine communities bordering Brazil.

Though they hold no legal title to Cantagallo, under international law, the Shipibo’s current housing crisis in Lima affords them unique rights as a displaced indigenous community, argued Mar Perez, an attorney with the National Coordinator for Human Rights.

"They’ve suffered financial and cultural consequences because of their displacement. The state should recognize this," Perez told ABC News. Peru’s Ministry of Housing declined interview requests for this article. But in a bid to conciliate residents, the agency recently released new details of a housing project, slated to begin at the end of 2020.

Many here, including Olinda Silvano, remain doubtful of the state. But the memory of her father -- and his dying message to fight for Cantagallo -- gives her strength to continue fighting.

"His blood was spilled on this land. So, come what may, I’ll stay here," she said.

What winter? Earth just had its second-warmest December-February on record


Doyle Rice, USA TODAY


What winter?
The months of December, January and February – which meteorologists define as winter here in the Northern Hemisphere – were the second-warmest on record, federal scientists announced Friday.

Only the El Niño-fueled winter of 2015-16 was warmer, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. El Niño, a natural warming of sea water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, acts to boost global temperatures.


Global temperature records for the Earth go back to 1880.

Some of the most extreme warmth was in Russia, which smashed its record for warmest winter. Temperatures there were as much as a whopping 12 degrees above average, according to the country's weather service.

All the weird warmth messed with the region’s flora and fauna, as Gizmodo noted. Flowers started to bloom early in the winter, and some bears even awoke from hibernation at the Bolsherechensky Zoo, the Washington Post said.

In Europe, France had its warmest winter on record, while both Austria and the Netherlands had their second-warmest winter. Austria has a long history of keeping weather data: temperature records there go back to 1767, when Mozart was 11 years old.

"Record-warm December to February temperatures were observed across much of the western half of Russia and parts of Europe, eastern Asia, northern Australia and across the Atlantic, Indian and western Pacific oceans," NOAA said. "However, no land or ocean areas had record-cold December to February temperatures."

10 years to save planet Earth: Here are 6 imaginative climate change solutions

Consider this: A heat wave melted 20% of an Antarctic island's snow in only 9 days

Of course, in the Southern Hemisphere, it was summer, where the extreme warmth of Australia's second-warmest summer on record fueled devastating and deadly wildfires there.

The USA had its sixth-warmest winter on record. Every state except Alaska was warmer-than-average during the December – February months.

According to a statistical analysis done by NOAA scientists, the year 2020 is "very likely to rank among the five-warmest years on record," NOAA said.

NASA, which also tracks global temperatures, also said that the winter of 2019-20 was the second-warmest on record.

The warm winter comes on the heels of the second warmest year on record (2019) and the fact that the 2010s was the warmest decade ever recorded.

Thanks to human-caused global warming, "this period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization," according to the National Climate Assessment. "Human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century," the assessment said.

UN report: Planet is 'way off track' in dealing with climate change

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What winter? Earth just had its second-warmest December-February on record

Warmest winter on record gives way to extra-early signs of spring






© Provided by CBS News

If this winter season was not very wintery where you live, you're certainly not alone — that was the experience for most of the people in the Northern Hemisphere. According to NOAA, the winter of 2019-2020 was the warmest on record across all continents north of the equator.


With an average temperature 4 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, this winter ranks first among the warmest winters on land in the Northern Hemisphere, beating the very mild winter of 2015-2016.

Up until now the 2015-2016 winter was the clear winner for warmth, but now it must split that distinction with this season. When you factor in the ocean surface in addition to land temperatures, 2015-2016 still holds the record. That's because that winter, the Earth experienced a super El Niño, overheating the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific and radiating heat into the atmosphere. It's years like that where record warmth is expected. But there was no El Niño to be found this winter, and yet, at least over land, it impressively still managed to exceed a super El Niño year.

As a result of the unusually warm weather this winter, seasonal rhythms have been thrown off kilter. As CBS News reported earlier this week, in places from Moscow to the U.S. bears have been seen coming out of hibernation early. Connecticut's Beardsley Zoo says its native black bears emerged in early March — almost a month earlier than usual.

In much of the eastern United States, spring "leaf out" — the season's first blossoming of several plant species — has sprung more than 20 days early. In parts of the Southeast, this year's spring bloom is the earliest in the 39-year record, according to the National Phenology Network, an organization that studies the impact of climate on nature's cycles.

CBS News asked Dr. Theresa Crimmins, director of the USA National Phenology Network, if such a widespread early arrival of spring is unusual. "Yes," she replied, "this year stands out, because so much of the country is showing such an early spring. Huge swaths of the Southeast have had the start of spring arrive 2-3 weeks and more early."

And the reason behind it? "Climate change is certainly at play — there is a clear trend toward an earlier start to spring," Crimmins said.
10 common myths about climate change — and what science really says

A 2015 study led by Cornell University's Dr. Toby Ault found a regional trend in earlier "leaf out," indicated by the orange colors in the map below, by up to 1.6 days per decade due to a warming climate on top of natural fluctuations.

With recent temperatures reaching in the low 70s — 25 degrees above normal — flowers are starting to appear in New York's Central Park weeks early.

The early spring is getting a boost from a winter with very little cold and snow in most of the country and around the world. In the U.S., the winter was nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, ranking as 6th warmest since the late 1800s. Washington D.C.'s snowfall was measly — less than an inch — and Boston registered its second-lowest snow total on record.

In the image below, the color brown indicates places that have seen less snow than normal.

The warmth has been even more astonishing in Europe. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Europe just experienced its warmest winter on record by far — 6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal — shattering the old record by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit.

The warmth caused difficulties for reindeer herding in northern Sweden, the failure of the ice-wine harvest in Germany, and forced organizers to import snow for sporting events in Sweden and Russia. Parts of Russia near Moscow experienced a winter of 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

When viewed over a longer period of time, Europe's record warm winter stands out even more starkly. Compared to normal conditions at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution (1850-1900), before human-caused greenhouse gases started to warm the planet, this winter was a remarkable 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal across the whole continent.

Some of the warmer weather in the mid-latitudes of the U.S. and Europe can be explained by abnormally strong polar vortex winds in the Arctic, which lassoed cold air, trapping it far north. These sporadic strong polar vortex patterns are most likely part of a natural cycle.

However, the broad scale and intensity of overall warmth across the Northern Hemisphere cannot be explained without climate change. Each year more signs emerge that human-caused climate change is playing a bigger role. A peer-reviewed paper published March 10 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters shows the climate-warming signal is becoming more apparent, with "many regions already experiencing a climate which would be 'unknown' by late 19th century standards."

"The speed of climate change is accelerating" says Dr. Peter Gleick, a climate scientist and founder of the Pacific Institute, a sustainability nonprofit in Oakland, California.

"Sadly, it is not a surprise to most climate scientists. We've seen this coming for literally decades and now it's upon us," said Gleick, "I expect there will be new, hotter temperature records broken over and over again in the future along with increasingly severe droughts and floods, rising sea levels, and worsening fire risks. There's no 'normal' anymore. And still our politicians dither. It's sad and disturbing to me."

India's hot climate got hotter in the past decade

Sahana Ghosh
3/6/2020

© Provided by Quartz

As India gears up for warmer than normal summer temperatures in 2020, climate scientists say large parts of India, except for the Indo-Gangetic plains, have experienced significant warming in the last 60 years due to human-induced climate change. A climatic shift has also been noted with a pronounced increase in frequency of hot days in the last four decades, scientists said.

The India Meteorological Department recently said the March-April-May (MAM) season average temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal over most of the meteorological subdivisions of northwest, west and central India and some subdivisions from south India. Near normal temperatures are likely in the remaining subdivisions.

The World Meteorological Organisation in a statement on State of the Global Climate 2019 released on March 10, said 2015-2019 are the five warmest years on record, and 2010-2019 the warmest decade on record. Since the 1980s, each successive decade has been warmer than any preceding decade since 1850.


“We find that more than 60% of India has experienced significant warming during the 1951-2015 observed record. The rise in summer temperature is already more than one degree in the last 60 or so years,” said Vimal Mishra of the Water and Climate Lab at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)-Gandhinagar, referring to his latest study that taps into India Meteorological Department’s observed data as well long-term simulations of 2,000 years that helps understand the future changes.

Mishra and colleagues identified the hottest summer in the observed record (1951 to 2015) across five climatic regions in India.

“The hottest summers in the observed record occurred once in 60 or so years and had lasting impacts on public health, water availability, agriculture, and labour efficiency. Due to anthropogenic warming, we will witness the summers like the hottest summer more often, which will affect various aspects of socio-economic well being,” explained Mishra.

For instance, a study of health impacts on construction workers in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, showed that heat stress levels were higher than those prescribed by international standards, highlighting the need for revision of work practices, increased protective measures, and possible development of indigenous work safety standards for heat exposure.

Expanding on his latest study, Mishra said the five regions classified in the study are: arid regions, which includes both arid and semi-arid regions in the northwestern parts of India and rain shadow regions in the Indian peninsula; cold regions, which encompass all the Himalayan states of the country; tropical monsoon forest regions that includes the western coast of India and the southern parts of the northeastern states where the southwest monsoon hits the earliest in the country.

The tropical Savannah regions that comprise the tropical regions in India; and temperate dry summer regions, which encompass the Gangetic and Brahmaputra plains and the narrow belt in Punjab-Haryana plains that receives moderate rainfall during the summer monsoon season are the other two regions.

“Hottest summers in different climatic regions can be linked to natural climate variability as well as anthropogenic climate change. The hottest summers of 1979 and 1973 are not linked with anthropogenic warming rather those were caused by natural climate variability,” noted Mishra.

However, the study identifies the summer of 2010 as the hottest summer in the arid, cold, and temperate regions during the observed record period and it was found to be directly associated with warming linked to human actions.

© Provided by Quartz

India experienced one of the worst heatwave spells in the last several decades.

“Further, our analysis shows that if the global mean temperature increases to two degrees from the pre-industrial level (1861-1890), the chances of getting the summers like the observed hottest summer will increase by about seven times,” said Mishra, adding that climate change mitigation can help reduce the rise in global mean temperature but it is unlikely to limit the warming under two degrees by the end of the 21st century using the best possible mitigation measures.

The observed cooling over the Indo-Gangetic Plain in IMD data can be attributed to irrigation and the presence of atmospheric aerosols. Intensive irrigation over the Indo-Gangetic plain results in cooling of the surface as well as air temperature as reported in the previous studies, the authors said.

Mishra said said adaptation and mitigation will play a crucial role in reducing the adverse impacts of climate change in the short and long-term.

Agreeing with the study findings, Krishna AchutaRao, professor, centre for atmospheric sciences at Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, who was not associated with the research, said the increases in risk ratio are not uniform across the country.

“So the action required will have to take this into account and produce specific plans for specific regions. This will definitely help policymakers,” he said AchutaRao in response to a query on research feeding into policy.

Another study suggesting a climatic shift has shown that most of India, except the Indo-Gangetic plains, has experienced more frequent hot days having higher temperatures in recent years (1976 to 2018).

“Our results provide compelling evidence that large parts of India, except the Indo-Gangetic plains, have experienced more occurrences of hot days (upsurge by 24.7%) having higher temperatures in the recent period (1976–2018), compared to the past (1951–1975), which suggests a shift in climate,” said corresponding author MK Joshi of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

Joshi and colleagues Archana Rai (IITM), Ashwini Kulkarni (IITM), and Fred Kucharski, at International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy, diagnosed the change in characteristics (ie, frequency and intensity) of hot extremes over India before and after the 1976 climate shift.

The scientists used IMD dataset (gridded temperature data) developed using the daily maximum temperature of 395 quality control stations all over India. Because grids in extreme north and northeast regions have inconsistent data, these grids are excluded from the analysis and set to as missing values.

The study indicated a geographical shift in the uptick in the frequency of hot days.

“Before the 1976 climate shift (ie, during 1951-1975) the eastern and southern parts of India experienced marked rise in the frequency of hot days; whereas, after the 1976 climate shift (ie, during 1976-2018) hot days have significantly increased over the northwestern parts and along the western coast indicating a spatial shift of significant increasing trends in frequency of hot days,” Joshi said.

They also explored the driving mechanisms (including atmospheric patterns, local factors, and natural variability associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation) responsible for such hot extremes that can help in mitigation and adaptation.

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

“Based on preceding ENSO, the periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, hot extremes over India can be potentially anticipated in advance and this will help society to prepare for such extremes,” Joshi told Mongabay-India in an email in response to questions.

Joshi said since soil moisture also has a role in controlling severely hot days, practices such as those involving the selection of environment-friendly building materials and expansion of vegetation, can help maintain soil water levels.

“Planting more trees for shade will prevent solar radiation from reaching surfaces that absorb heat.” “The building materials used in urban spaces are water-resistant surfaces and don’ allow water to flow through surfaces. So, without the cycle of flowing and evaporating water, these surfaces can’t cool automatically. Planting more trees for shade will prevent solar radiation from reaching surfaces that absorb heat. In addition to this, evapotranspiration from plants cools the air around it,” Joshi added.
Local weather labs

Stepping up climate change education is also a key mitigation tool and the UNESCO states education is an essential element of the global response to climate change. One such educational initiative that has unfolded in the cold Himalayan states involves setting up school weather labs.

In Sikkim, which has recently seen harsh summers and has introduced climate change studies in its school curriculum, efforts are on to train students into maintaining and monitoring school-based local weather stations, set up under a climate change initiative run by Indian Institute of Public Administration (IIPA) and SEEDS, in collaboration with Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority (SSDMA). The lab builds on pilots in Leh, Chamoli, and Gangtok.

At the recent launch of the Sunny Weather Lab, in a government-run school in Soreng, West Sikkim, eight-year-old Nancy Rai, who is from a school in East Sikkim enthusiastically explained the equipment that measure atmospheric pressure, temperature and several other parameters, to students who would be running the weather station in Soreng. Rai is experienced with the weather lab in her school, a laboratory set-up installed in schools for children to record daily weather conditions.

“In the weather lab set up at our school, we are learning to measure and document daily weather through six parameters. They are temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, wind direction, and rainfall. The weather changes from valley to valley in Sikkim and a dense network of stations are needed,” said Rai during the launch of the weather lab in this month.

© Provided by Quartz
School students discuss the working of a weather station in Sikkim.

According to Vinod Sharma, a senior professor of disaster management at IIPA and vice-chairperson, SSDMA, extreme weather events are common in Sikkim.

“Summers are very harsh since the last few years. Rainfall has not changed but rainy days have reduced. The size of the rain droplets has expanded. More thunderstorms, hailstorms, cloudbursts are observed each year which increases the frequency of landslides,” Sharma told Mongabay-India, adding that crops such as cardamom and oranges have been hit by climate change. A recent study on the Teesta river basin in Sikkim shows a clear sign of an increase in rainfall and temperature in the 21st century.

IITM’s Joshi believes such school weather stations can help in data gathering for documenting a changing climate but data has to be collected for the long-term for a climate change perspective and maintenance of equipment should be ensured.

India experienced a prolonged heatwave in 2019. According to a McKinsey Global Institute report released in January, most of the increase in direct impact from climate hazards to date has come from greater exposure to hazards rather than from increases in the mean and tail intensity of hazards. In the future, hazard intensification will likely assume a greater role. Outdoor labour productivity is also expected to be impacted, reducing the effective number of hours that can be worked outdoors, the report states. By 2030, the average number of lost daylight working hours in India could increase to the point where between 2.5 and 4.5% of GDP could be at risk annually, according to the report estimates.
This post first appeared on Mongabay-India. We welcome your comments at ideas.india@qz.com.