Friday, March 17, 2023

PAKISTAN




Dial K for ‘Khakistocracy’

The fourth estate has a sacred responsibility to the people. It should not continue to be selective in its outrage when it comes to matters of principle.
DAWN
Published March 17, 2023 

An age-old children’s tale has recently started seeming like the perfect metaphor for our latest experiment with democracy.

The story goes like this: A king was once presented with robes so fantastic that only the wisest people in his land could see them. The king eagerly clothed himself in these wondrous threads before presenting himself to his subjects to see whether they too were smart enough to admire them. As he paraded through their ranks, all he could hear was the people murmuring their praises. It took a small child to finally blurt out what the gathered crowd dared not say: “The emperor had no clothes!”

A year ago, the two main components of our political system undertook a similar change of clothes. While the army swapped khaki for a more ‘neutral’ shade, parties from across the political spectrum fashioned themselves as the Pakistan ‘Democratic’ Movement. Together, they would go on to overthrow the ‘puppet prime minister’ of the ‘hybrid regime’.

The return of ‘true democracy’ heralded the restoration of the primacy of the Constitution and the supremacy of our Parliament. We were told that the political system would heal as it slowly returned to its ‘Purana Pakistan’ normalcy.

Few among those in this country who consider themselves wise questioned the legitimacy of the incoming regime. The assurance that the PTI government was being ousted through a vote of confidence — in other words, parliamentary procedure — was enough. Short shrift was given to how the votes required for the VOC were actually rounded up.
In with the old

And so the country was returned to the wise old hands of Pakistan’s democratic elite. These were people whose sacrifices for our right to self-rule had no parallel — those who introduced ‘Democracy is the best revenge’ and ‘Vote ko izzat dau’ to our political parlance. We had been delivered, or so we were told. Turns out, we were once again having the wool pulled over our eyes.

There is an excellent Twitter account, titled ‘The Cultural Tutor’, which shares fascinating curations from the history of western civilisations. It recently shared a list of political systems to ask followers which one they lived in.




The list began with democracy — rule by the people — and had some rather interesting inclusions, such as isocracy, algocracy and ochlocracy. It ended with kakistocracy — rule by the worst, the least qualified and most unscrupulous citizens.

It was difficult, as a born and raised underseas Pakistani, to make an honest choice. After all, our political system isn’t exactly on the continuum of the various paradigms that evolved from the Greek tradition.

For example, no matter how loudly we may insist otherwise, our democracy’s most recent iteration does not even represent the aspirations of the majority. In fact, it does not seem to want those aspirations to be expressed at all.

The country cannot also be described as a plutocracy, and it seems unfair to dismiss it as a kakistocracy, no matter how strong the temptation to do so. More importantly, nothing in that list captured the role of our military ‘establishment’ in political affairs, which has either overtly or covertly ruled the country for much of its history and seemingly continues to do so despite all pretensions to the contrary.
The powers that be

Sharing that last thought with a dear friend proved greatly upsetting for their continence. They protested that our new government’s reversion to the pseudo-fascistic tendencies of the old regime ought not to be pinned on the boys.

I begged to disagree. No civilian government in its right mind dares defy straightforward, self-evident constitutional edicts with impunity, not least one that has squandered most of its political capital. No organ of the state risks inviting contempt charges by refusing their constitutional duty. You do not just bin both court and Constitution unless a greater force has provided guarantees to protect you from the consequences of doing so.

The institutions of our state are known for perpetual sloth, not the energy and enthusiasm with which they have recently sought to serve and execute warrants of arrest for cases predestined for the ash heaps of history. Such alacrity has usually been seen only in times when someone needs to be taught a lesson for defying the true powers that be.
Democracy with no clothes

The wise among us may continue not acknowledging the obvious, but it is high time someone pointed out that our democracy has no clothes. We are, in fact, being ruled by yet another khakistocracy, and one that would be little different from a full-blown kakistocracy but for that strategically placed ‘h’.

One wonders why this clever portmanteau hasn’t been used more often in the Pakistani context. Hybrid regime stopped being an insult the moment our civilian leaders started boasting about sharing same pages with their uniformed overlords. The sting got taken out from ‘puppet prime minister’ when it became evident that all our leaders are eager to give an arm and a limb to be marionettes as long as they can pretend to be kings while at it.

The normalised hypocrisy of our political class, when in power and when without, has eroded any sense of democratic propriety in our people. The decay is now getting worse. As many have persistently pointed out, you cannot save democracy by suspending or subverting it. Here, it is the means that must justify the ends, not the other way around.

There is little point lamenting the proto-fascism taking root in this nation’s youthful populace if our intelligentsia will continue to fail them in providing a working moral compass with which they can navigate their increasingly hostile world. The fourth estate has a sacred responsibility to the people. It should not continue to be selective in its outrage when it comes to matters of principle.

The author is a member of staff.



PAKISTAN

Perfect storm?
The economic and political crises are not isolated events.

Faisal Bari 
Published March 17, 2023 




SOME economists and other commentators have been arguing that the economic/financial crisis that we are facing, though serious, is relatively easy to fix. All we have to do is to a) implement and raise the right taxes and reduce the wrong ones, and b) reduce overall expenditure while raising expenditure targeted at the poor and development and cutting other expenditure by a lot.

The right taxes mentioned in this context are property tax and taxes on real estate, agricultural income tax, and taxes on the income of traders and other groups who are currently not in the tax net.

At the same time, there should be a reduction in indirect taxes like flat taxes on services, sales tax and taxes on imports. The idea, clearly, would be to increase direct taxes on those who are able to pay while reducing them for those who cannot, and therefore should not be paying taxes.

On the expenditure side, the idea would be of overall reduction in expenses by moving to more targeted subsides for the poor, the removal of subsidies, of which there are many for the rich, and the removal of inefficiencies on the expenditure side.


The overall thought is that if by doing the above the government can remove the fiscal deficit, over time, as we run surpluses, the problem of twin deficits (foreign currency and domestic fiscal deficit) will become more manageable.


The economic and political crises are not isolated events.

Sounds simple enough. But we have known all this for decades now. Economists and policymakers have been talking about agricultural income tax, taxes on real estate and property, and taxes for traders for at least 30-odd years.

And we have also been talking of making government efficient and re-prioritising expenditures for the poor, and for development in general and human development in particular for a long time as well. But all this has not happened. Clearly, it is not so easy to do it then.

The real question is why have we not been able to do what has been mentioned here? When we raise taxes, and we do it all the time, why is the focus on indirect taxes and usually in presumptive or advance mode? Why have we not been able to reduce subsidies for the rich?

Why do we have a large sugar industry when we have known for a long time that it is a waste of water and other resources and the land under sugarcane cultivation can be utilised better for other purposes? Why do we still end up protecting and subsidising the 50-odd richest families who have sugar mills? And it is the same story in a number of other areas as well. For instance, why has it been so hard to tax real estate?

We currently face a political crisis as well. Democracy is limping badly; the hybrid governance arrangements, once a stable equilibrium for the elite, have been destabilised due to the entrance of new players. It is not known what the new arrangement will be and when it will become clear, if at all.

I argue that the economic and political crises are not isolated events that have come at the same time by mere coincidence. The two are connected. At the root of it are factors of political economy that have been and are driving these dynamics. For long, our polity has been ‘rule of the few, by the few, for the few’.

Those ‘few’ have been called the ‘elite’ by Ishrat Husain, and are now being called ‘one per cent’ by Miftah Ismail. It is the rule of those who have had the resources and the power, supported and bolstered by aspirants to those resources and power. It includes the top tier of politicians, bureaucrats, the military and judiciary, business folk and the landed: resources and power.

The elites make sure that the rules are made to enrich them further and to confirm the entrenchment and continuation of their interests. This may sometimes be done through illegal means, but most of the time it is done using the law. Judges, bureaucrats and army officers get plots and land legally. The Toshakhana usage was legal. Subsidies and/or protective measures for the sugar or automobile industry have been legal.

At the same time, the structures have worked hard to control society and to undermine the development of all institutions and movements that have or could threaten their control. The education curriculum is controlled to ensure a certain narrative about religion and nationalism. Mass media and social media are used for this purpose as well.

The development of political parties, grassroots mobilisation, democracy, media and civil society have all been undermined again and again in our society. Student unions in most provinces are banned even today. This has made mobilisation and/or organisation of the masses a lot more difficult. It has also made the development of strong institutions that are needed to underwrite democratic development in a country that much harder as well.

Is it any wonder then that governance has broken down? And we have not been able to implement ‘simple’ solutions that could solve the economic problems we currently face? It is naïve to think that solutions and their implementation is ‘simple’.

The structures that have given rise to these problems cannot be the ones that provide us with the solutions as well. For change to take place, something has to give. It might happen, as the crises deepen, that the elites and the institutions that protect them start fighting amongst themselves for scarce resources. Maybe that will break down the current equilibrium.

The current economic and political crisis might be an early sign of the coming battle. Maybe this will bring about the change in structures that we need.

Many other countries have faced similar crises and some have resolved them successfully as well. But this does not mean that all can. It just shows that it can be done, though the solutions for each country tend to be context specific. We will have to forge our own path here. At the moment this looks like a hard climb.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives, and an associate professor of economics at Lums.


Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2023

CULTURE: THE DIVINE MUSIC OF KASHMIR

Mubashar Naqvi 
Published March 12, 2023
Kashmiri Sufi music occasions the coming together of locals in the valley | Photo by the writer

Nestled in the foothills of the Himalayas, the beautiful valley of Kashmir is renowned for its breathtaking landscapes, serene lakes and snow-capped mountains. But, there is more to this region than just its natural beauty.

The valley of Kashmir is also home to a rich musical tradition that has been passed down many generations and through centuries. Among the various forms of music that are native to this region, Kashmiri Sufi music emerges as very captivating and soul-nourishing.

The roots of Sufism in Kashmir can be traced back to the 13th century, when the legendary Sufi saint Sheikh Noor-ud-Din Wali arrived in the valley from Central Asia. He is known to have played a crucial role in spreading the message of Islam through his mystical teachings and, particularly, his use of soulful music.

The followers of Sheikh Noor-ud-Din Wali, also known as Nund Rishi, developed a unique form of music that combined the traditional folk music of Kashmir with the mystical teachings of Sufism. This music is known as Kashmiri Sufi music.

The rich and vibrant tradition of the mystical music of Kashmir is slowly becoming a relic of the past in Azad Jammu and Kashmir

KASHMIRI SUFI

Kashmiri Sufi music is characterised by its soulful lyrics, haunting melodies and mystical themes. The lyrics of Sufi music are often inspired by the teachings of the Sufi saints and poets, who believed in the power of music to connect with the Divine — symbolising love, compassion, and tolerance. The music is also deeply rooted in the folk culture of Kashmir, and the lyrics often incorporate elements of nature, love and spirituality.

The music is performed by a group of musicians who use traditional instruments such as the santoor, rabab and harmonium, along with traditional Kashmiri percussion instruments such as the tumbaknari and the dholak.

Kashmiri Sufi music is also characterised by its meditative and trance-like quality. The repetitive rhythms and hypnotic melodies of the music are designed to induce a state of spiritual ecstasy in the listener. This is achieved through the use of ‘call-and-response patterns’, where the lead singer chants a line and the chorus responds with a repeating phrase or melody.

One of the most unique features of Kashmiri Sufi music is its emphasis on improvisation. While the basic structure of the music is often pre-determined, individual musicians are given the freedom to improvise and add their own personal touches to the music. This improvisation creates a sense of spontaneity that is rare in other forms of music.

One of the most important aspects of Sufi music is the devotional qawwali. Characterised by its repetitive rhythms, and with lyrics often including verses from the Quran, as well as the teachings of the Sufi saints, the qawwali is an integral part of the Sufi tradition and it is believed to have the power to heal and soothe the soul.

“Kashmiri Sufi music has a special place in my heart,” says Zia Naqvi, an educationist and photographer who hails from Multan, and is currently based in Islamabad.

He says he connects deeply with Kashmiri Sufi music.

“It is a profound and spiritual form of expression that speaks to the deepest parts of the human soul. It has the power to uplift and transport us to a higher state of consciousness, connecting us to something greater than ourselves. To me, there is nothing quite like the experience of listening to Sufi music in the beautiful landscape of Kashmir, surrounded by the majesty of the mountains and the peacefulness of the valley.”

MUSICALLY DIVIDED

Across the Line of Control, the popularity of Kashmiri Sufi music has grown significantly over the years, and many music festivals are organised in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir throughout the year, showcasing the talents of local musicians and promoting the rich musical heritage of the region.

One of the most popular music festivals is the Sufi Music Festival, which is held annually in the month of October in the Indian-held valley. The festival attracts music lovers from all over the world.

Unfortunately, there has been little cross-border exchange of music among Kashmiris. The few offerings that have materialised have been primarily in the Kashmiri language, which is now understood by a diminishing number of individuals in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).

While a handful of liberation-themed songs have garnered some degree of fame, they cannot be regarded as representative of the transcendent Sufi music tradition that has played such a crucial role in the cultural identity of the Kashmiri people.

RELIC OF THE PAST?

The land of Azad Jammu and Kashmir is a hidden gem in the Himalayan region, blessed with breathtaking natural beauty and a rich cultural heritage that has been passed down through centuries. Yet, as time marches on, the people of this region seem to be losing touch with their roots, neglecting the very essence of what makes them unique.

In particular, the hauntingly beautiful strains of Kashmiri Sufi music, which have long been a staple of the region’s cultural identity, are being forgotten and neglected, as if they were mere relics of the past.

Some other factors are also threatening the enchanting rhythms of Kashmiri Sufi music in AJK. The conflict-ridden region has led to the curtailment of cultural activities and weakened the social and religious structures that have long supported Sufi music. Moreover, the rise of conservative ideologies also dismisses music and artistic expression as un-Islamic, further driving younger generations away from Sufi music.

Globalisation has also introduced Western musical influences, prompting a shift in the musical preferences of Kashmiri youth towards modern genres and leaving the mellifluous tunes of Sufi music to languish. This has put Sufi musicians in a precarious position, with limited opportunities to share their art.

It is a tragedy that such a rich and vibrant tradition, which has touched the hearts and souls of so many generations, should be allowed to fade away into obscurity, without so much as a second thought.

“Kashmiri Sufi music is not just music,” says social activist and documentary film producer Zahid Nisar. “It’s a language of the heart that speaks of love, peace and harmony. In a world that’s increasingly divided, we need more of such music that unites us and reminds us of our shared humanity.”

The beauty of Kashmiri Sufi music must be preserved, cherished and shared with the world, so that it may continue to inspire and uplift all those who hear its divine melodies.

The writer is based in Muzaffarabad and writes on culture, tourism and higher education. He tweets @SMubasharNaqvi

Published in Dawn, EOS, March 12th, 2023
PAKISTAN
Govt vows no compromise on nukes amid IMF deal delay
NO NUKES ARE GOOD NUKES
Iftikhar A. Khan
Published March 17, 2023
 
• Dar says nobody can dictate what missiles, N-weapons Pakistan should have

• Rabbani laments Senate not taken into confidence on IMF conditions

• Shehbaz admits tough decisions led to unrelenting inflation


ISLAMABAD: The premier and the finance minister asserted on Thursday that there would be “no compromise” on the country’s nuclear and missile programme and they are “jealously guarded by the state”.

The statements from the top came amid concerns raised by some quarters after the visit of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) head to Pakistan last month and the government’s failure to strike a deal with IMF to resume a stalled loan programme, which would offer a critical lifeline to avert an economic meltdown.

A statement issued by the Prime Minister’s Office on Thursday noted that press releases, queries and various assertions regarding Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programme were being circulated on social and print media.

Even a “traditional routine visit” of IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi was portrayed in a “negative spotlight”, it said.

“It is emphasised that Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programme is a national asset, which is jealously guarded by the state. The complete programme is totally secure, foolproof and under no stress or pressure whatsoever,” the statement said.

“It continues to fully serve the purpose for which this capability was developed,” it added.

In a tweet later in the day, the premier said that “misleading speculations about Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programme are unfortunate”.



“The stringent, foolproof and multi-layered security safeguards, duly testified by the International Atomic Energy Agency, are in place. Our nuclear programme represents the unwavering consensus of the nation and is for deterrence,” he said.

Similarly, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told the Senate on Thursday there would be “no compromise” on the country’s nuclear and missile programme.

He was responding to questions raised by PPP Senator Raza Rabbani over the conditions set by the IMF.

“Let me assure you that […] nobody is going to compromise anything on the nuclear or the missile programme of Pakistan — no way.”

Senator Rabbani had raised some questions on the reasons behind the delay in the agreement with the IMF, which would offer a critical lifeline to tame a balance-of-payments crisis.

The PPP leader lamented that the Senate had “neither before nor today been taken into confidence on what are the conditionalities of the IMF”.

Describing the delay as extraordinary, Senator Rabbani sought to know if the delay was being made because of some sort of pressure on the country’s nuclear programme or its strategic relationship with China or because an imperialist power wanted its presence in the region.

In response, Mr Dar assured that there would be no compromise on Pakistan’s nuclear prowess and promised that the moment the staff-level agreement and the Extended Fund Facility were finalised, it would be placed on the website of the finance ministry.

“Nobody has any right to tell Pakistan what range of missiles it can have and what nuclear weapons it can have. We have to have our own deterrence,” he said. “We represent the people of Pakistan […] and we have to guard our national interests.”

‘External financing last hurdle’


Mr Dar said that an assurance from “friendly countries” to fund a balance of payment gap was the last hurdle in securing an IMF deal.

Several countries had made commitments to support Pakistan during previous IMF reviews, he said, adding that the IMF was now asking for those commitments.

“At the time of the previous reviews, several friendly countries had made commitments to bilaterally support Pakistan, what IMF is now asking (is) that they should actually complete and materialise those commitments,” he said, adding: That’s the only delay.“

Islamabad has been hosting the IMF mission since early February to negotiate a series of policy measures for the cash-strapped economy to manage the fiscal deficit ahead of the annual budget around June.

“It has been extensive engagement, unusual, too lengthy, too long, too demanding, but we have completed everything,” Mr Dar said.

‘Bitter conditions completed’


Prime Minister Sharif, who also spoke to Senate later, said that all of the IMF’s conditions had been met.

“We’ve completed bitter, very bitter conditions of the IMF,” he told the upper house of the parliament, adding that he hoped to “have a staff level agreement soon”.

He said that “bold decisions” taken by his government led to unrelenting inflation and burdened the common person, though he expressed optimism that “good days are ahead”. He added, “There is always light at the end of the tunnel, provided you are committed to the cause.”

He insisted that the coalition government did not shy away from taking these decisions and decided to save the country at the cost of political interests.

“We took over [in April 2022] at a time when the country’s economy was facing very difficult challenges,” he said, lamenting that the previous government abandoned the agreements it had made with the money lender. This, he said, damaged Pakistan’s image, trust and confidence with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as other bilateral and multilateral institutions.

“And then we took over through a constitutional instrument. We had two choices — one to dole out funds like the previous regime had done, leaving nothing in the kitty and offering unaccounted and un-budgeted subsidies. The other path was showing the highest level of responsibility, maturity and statesmanship,” the premier said.

He said the coalition government then decided through a consultative process to adopt the path that “protects the state of Pakistan and will make posterity proud of us”.

Holding the PTI responsible for a delay in IMF’s staff-level agreement even after the government had accepted all tough and bitter conditions, he accused Imran Khan’s party of making all attempts to devastate the entire system in the country.

Prime Minister Sharif stressed that economic stability without political stability would remain a pipe dream. He agreed that the IMF had not pointed towards political instability in Pakistan during its talks with the government but emphasised that “they are not blind and see all that is happening”.

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2023Now you can follow Dawn Business on Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.
SOON TO BE NO FLY ZONE
‘Dollar-starved’ Pakistan struggles to pay international airlines: report

Mohammad Asghar 
Published March 17, 2023 


RAWALPINDI: The global air transport body has warned of an ‘aviation crisis’ in Pakistan as airlines are struggling to recover $290 million due to a severe financial crisis, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) has said it was trying to pay the airlines on time and has been in contact with relevant authorities over the issue.

The Financial Times, while quoting the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said it has become “very challenging” for carriers to serve Pakistan as they struggle to repatriate their dues which are paid in dollars.

The IATA, which represents some 300 airlines comprising 83 per cent of global air traffic, said $290m were stuck in Pakistan as of January up by almost a third since December.

“Airlines are facing long delays before they are able to repatriate their funds,” Philip Goh, the IATA’s Asia-Pacific head, was quoted as saying by FT. “Some airlines still have funds stuck in Pakistan from sales in 2022.”

Financial Times says outstanding dues reached $290m

“If conditions persist that make the economics of operation to a country unsustainable, one would expect airlines to put their valued aircraft assets to better use elsewhere,” Mr Goh added.

While talking to Dawn, PCAA DG Khaqan Murtaza confirmed airlines were facing some delays in the repatriation of their payments but added that the authority was in contact with the State Bank and the finance minister for timely payments to the airlines.

In December 2022, the global aviation body said Pakistan has blocked $225m it owed to international airlines, making it one of the top markets where airline funds have been blocked from repatriation.

The development coincided with Pakistan’s balance of payment crisis with fast-depleting foreign exchange reserves, standing at a low mark of $4.3bn.

The ongoing crisis has also hit the aviation industry where airlines sell tickets in local currency but repatriate dollars to pay for expenses such as fuel costs.

The FT, citing data from an aviation analytics company Cirium, shared that foreign airlines have been reluctant to return to Pakistan, with fewer total flights scheduled for March 2023 than the same month in 2019.

“If you can’t take money out of a country, then there’s no point in you even going there,” said Mark Martin, chief executive of aviation consultancy Martin Consulting, in the FT report.

Last month, Virgin Atlantic announced the suspension of its operations in Pakistan.

Although the airline said that the decision was part of its plan to revamp operations, the FT, citing a person familiar with the matter, said the decision was based on the economics of the route.

Earlier this month, the Senate Standing Committee on Aviation recommended the aviation ministry meet with the airline heads and ‘dispel the negative opinion about Pakistan’ and convince them to resume operations as usual.

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2023

Rethinking Pakistan’s agriculture

Abdul Wahab Siyal 
Published March 16, 2023 




THE climate change-induced rains of last summer left millions of people homeless in many parts of Pakistan. While it is correct to put pressure on the international community to pay their share of the climate debt, the seismic nature of the disaster should focus our attention on drawing up our own policy framework so that we can do our bit.

In this article, I propose clean energy alternatives as a means of reducing the fossil fuel footprint in the country, and to make agricultural production sustainable on the basis of self-sufficient energy. A case in point is the increase in the use of tube wells in agriculture since the 1960s, mainly due to government subsidies. It has led to a significant increase in the area irrigated by groundwater. This has resulted in a decline in the area irrigated exclusively by canal water, which reduced by 38 per cent between 1960 and 2015.

Another issue of considerable concern is the high consumption of water by only four crops: wheat, rice, sugarcane and cotton. These major crops consume around 85pc of the total pumped irrigation water, measuring around 51 billion cubic metres per year. This highlights the need for a more sustainable approach to agriculture and irrigation in Pakistan.

The extraction of groundwater in the country relies heavily on non-renewable sources of energy, such as fossil fuels, leading to high levels of carbon emissions. This not only contributes to environmental pollution but also increases the cost of production for Pakistan’s farmers. The energy that is required for the irrigation of the four major crops mentioned here has a footprint of 103 PJ (petajoule), which is equivalent to 2.5 million metric tons of oil. It generates a carbon footprint of 11 billion kilograms of carbon dioxide, which accounts for 6pc of the national carbon footprint. Most of the energy is used by diesel pumps that extract shallow groundwater, accounting for 73pc of the total energy use, followed by electric pumps that extract deep groundwater.

Pakistan can significantly reduce its energy consumption in irrigation.

The factors that determine the energy and carbon footprints for irrigation water in Pakistan vary spatially and temporally, depending on the crop type, crop water requirements, fraction of the gravity-fed and pumped water, groundwater tables, and energy sources for pumping, including diesel, electric and solar energy.

A recent research study has identified 10 hot-spot districts that make up 42pc of the total energy footprint in Pakistan for the irrigation of the four major crops. These hot spots are located in the southern part of Punjab with its dominant wheat-cotton-sugarcane cropping pattern. The identification of the hot-spot districts is particularly important for targeting energy efficiency measures and promoting sustainable irrigation practices. They include: Vehari, Lodhran, Multan, Bahawalpur, Khanewal, Bahawalnagar, Jhang, Rahim Yar Khan, Muzaffargarh and Rajanpur.

By replacing conventional pumping units (25pc of the total pumping units in Pakistan) in hot-spot districts with solar pumps, it is possible to save 42pc of the existing pumping energy in Pakistan. This would be a substantial saving and could also be a worthwhile investment in the long run. If we assume an average unit cost of Rs2m, installing 0.3m solar pumps in the hot-spot districts would require an investment of Rs600bn. Although this is a significant amount, the potential long-term cost savings could be substantial. Within two years, this investment can lead to a reduction of 42pc of the existing pumping energy, which could translate into significant cost savings for the country. Therefore, it seems like a worthwhile investment to consider.

Furthermore, a policy is needed to ensure solar pumping integration with drip and sprinkler irrigation in the sandy areas of the country, such as Thal, Thar, Cholistan, Potohar, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Lakki Marwat) and Balochistan for high-value agriculture (orchards and vegetables) with strict enforcement of measures to avoid the depletion of precious groundwater.

Next, the areas with cash crops that have shallow groundwater within the canal commands should be brought under precision agriculture, including laser land levelling and improved conveyance and field application efficiency before integrating them into solar-based surface irrigation.

Finally, the water discharge from solar tube wells should be capped based on specific ecology, cropping patterns and the water requirement for the crops. There should be a prior option to focus on the hot-spot districts (with their high energy use and energy footprints) for immediate energy conservation in areas that have irrigated agriculture by solarising the existing tube wells.

By implementing these recommendations, Pakistan can significantly reduce its energy consumption in irrigation and promote sustainable agriculture practices. Indeed, the adoption of renewable energy in the agriculture sector, especially solar-powered irrigation, can bring many benefits to the country, such as reducing carbon emissions, promoting energy independence, and providing reliable energy sources to the farmers. However, it is crucial to approach this issue with a very clear vision and after comprehensive planning that considers the specific context of each region. The adoption of renewable energy should not be seen as a one-size-fits-all solution. Rather, it should be looked on as a tool that needs to be customised and adapted to the needs and realities of each community.

It is, therefore, important to develop short-, medium-, and long-term targets that reflect the specific goals and challenges of each region, and to provide adequate support, such as subsidies and technical assistance, to help farmers and communities adopt this technology successfully. Additionally, it is important to consider the potential unintended consequences of adopting renewable energy, such as over-extraction of groundwater, as well as to develop regulations and incentives that encourage the sustainable use of natural resources throughout the country.

Recently, there has been a lot of research in Pakistan — pilot-scale and feasibility studies, in combination with subsidies, have been initiated at the provincial and national levels — exploring and recommending renewable energy potential. Though these efforts are translated into action slowly at the farm level, solar energy applications in irrigated agriculture should be adopted with clear, short-, medium-, and long-term targets.

The writer heads the Alternative Energy in Agriculture programme at the Climate, Energy & Water Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2023

Lack of rainfall set to hit crop outputs in India, Pakistan
Published March 17, 2023 
A man walks on the dried, cracked landscape near Hanna Lake, Quetta.


SINGAPORE: The drought-hit regions of northern and central India, all the way up to Pakistan, are staring at lower food output and high prices as the region is set to receive lower than normal rainfall due to the El Nino weather pattern in the second half of the year.

The trend is likely to affect cereal and oilseed crops across Asia with the forecast of hot, dry weather.

Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at US-based Maxar, said the central and northern parts of India are facing drought, so even slightly below-normal precipitation is likely to pose risk to crops.

High temperatures are likely to impact vast swathes of farmland in Australia, Southeast Asia and India, while some growing regions in North and South America are likely to see more crop-friendly weather as there is more than a 50 per cent chance of the El Nino phenomenon occurring, meteorologists said.

The threat from dry weather to food production in Asia comes after grain and edible oil prices climbed to historic highs in 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war and Covid-19 disrupted world supplies.

“At present, the global grain market is historically tight and thus liable to sudden upward price movements on negative supply-side developments,” Charles Hart, a commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions in London, said.

“The strains of the Covid era and the poor harvests of 2022 will be felt beyond 2023 as inventories are replenished over time.”

La Nina weather, characterised by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has ended and El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, is expected to form during the northern summer, according to US and Japanese weather forecasters.

While La Nina brings cool and wet weather to parts of Asia, El Nino is typically associated with heat and dryness in the region.

In North and South America, the weather tends to be favourable for crops during El Nino, although there are likely to still be pockets of adverse weather lingering.

Hot dry weather


A dry winter in central and western parts of Australia could stress the wheat crop in the world’s second-largest exporter of grain. The country produced record wheat crops for the last three years, thanks to higher-than-normal rainfall brought by the La Nina weather.

In Southeast Asia, crucial for palm oil and rice exports, forecasters are expecting slightly below normal precipitation in June-August, although the region has ample soil moisture after heavy rains in recent months.

“It will take a while for dry weather in Southeast Asia to have an impact on palm oil and rice production,” Hyde said.

China, US and Argentina


Typically, China sees dryness in its corn growing northern region and more precipitation in the soybean producing northeast during El Nino.

For the United States, the weather is expected to be favourable for the wheat crop.

“In the southern Plains, parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas in particular, those areas do tend to do a lot better, when it comes to rainfall, in an El Nino year,” Illinois state climatologist Trent Ford said.Argentina, which is facing a historic drought, could also see improved weather.

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2023

Anti-Muslim bigotry

Editorial 
Published March 17, 2023

IN a civilised world, there can be no place for hatred and violence based on race, religion, ethnicity, etc. However, humanity is far from these lofty ideals, though advances have been made in combating bigotry. In the modern age, one of the most rampant forms of hatred is Islamophobia, that manifests itself in various forms, ranging from the harassment of women wearing the hijab, to murderous rampages such as the one carried out by a white supremacist in Christchurch in 2019. It was this incident that led to the observance of the International Day to Combat Islamophobia every March 15. Pakistan, particularly the former PTI government, played an instrumental role in the observance of the day internationally.

As the UN chief has observed, Muslims in many parts “face bigotry and prejudice simply because of their faith”. Some interesting observations were made during the discussion on a resolution condemning Islamophobia during the General Assembly in 2022, perhaps reflecting the anti-Muslim prejudices of supposedly secular states. The French delegate could not understand why a specific day was dedicated to Islamophobia. Meanwhile, the Indian representative also had issues with observing the day. These views highlight the fact that despite declared secularity, some states have issues with Islam and the Muslim culture. For example, in Europe, the far right has combined Islamophobia with racism and anti-immigrant sentiment to create a toxic atmosphere for Muslims and people of colour. France has been championing restrictions on the hijab in government buildings. Vile examples of Quran burning in different European states illustrate that for some, the continent’s mediaeval animus for Islam is very much alive. India, on the other hand, specifically under the BJP’s watch, has woven Islamophobia into state policy. The Sangh Parivar has for long reviled Islam — as seen in the Babri Masjid episode, the lynching of Muslims on suspicions of eating beef, and the disenfranchisement of Indian Muslim citizens on flimsy grounds. These episodes simply prove that for millions of people, Islamophobia is a lived reality that needs to be fought, as does prejudice against other faiths.

Yet it is also true that Muslim states need to do a better job of protecting minorities that live within their borders. When non-Muslims are not completely free to practise their faiths, not only is it a violation of their fundamental rights, it also gives fodder to Islamophobes to further spread poison. For centuries, the world of Islam and non-Muslim cultures have mingled and traded with each other, exchanging ideas and concepts, while also confronting one another on the battlefield. In fact, were it not for Europe’s interaction with Islam, the continent may have had a difficult time exiting the Dark Ages. Therefore, either we can learn from history and coexist, or continue regurgitating the venom of the past.

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2023

Low-paid workers

Editorial Published March 17, 2023 

THE findings of a new global ILO study that 29pc of key workers in essential services, covering health, cleaning and sanitation, education, food systems, security, transportation and manual technical and clerical occupations, are low paid shows how the world treats its real heroes who are expected to carry on with their jobs and serve the rest. Such workers, according to the report, earn 26pc less than other employees. The share of low-paid workers in critical services varies from profession to profession and country to country. In food systems, the share of low-paid key employees is especially high at 47pc, and in cleaning and sanitation at 31pc. Nearly a third of these workers are employed on temporary contracts, although there are considerable country and sectoral differences. In the food industry, 46pc have temporary jobs. A significant number of employees in manual occupations are reported to be on temporary contracts and forced to work longer hours as they lack social protection, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Although we do not have very reliable data in Pakistan regarding the key socioeconomic indicators as they relate to our critical workers, most findings of the ILO study would apply here. In fact, our key workers may be worse off on most indicators when compared to their counterparts in other parts of the world. While the public sector does have some mechanisms to partially compensate them, working conditions in the private sector continue to deteriorate due to lack of government regulations on protecting such employees against arbitrary dismissals or during health and financial emergencies. The systematic destruction of labour unions, which could protect workers’ rights by plugging the gap between employers and their employees, has exacerbated poor conditions in the workplace. The report suggests improvements in working conditions and greater investment in food systems, healthcare, and other key sectors for building economic and social resilience to shocks like the Covid pandemic. One hopes the government will pay heed.

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2023







AFGHANISTAN

What went wrong?



Touqir Hussain 
Published March 15, 2023 


REGARDLESS of whoever ruled Afghanistan, the country has always been a problem for Pakistan. The latter’s strategic planners may have hoped that with the Afghan Taliban’s return to power the problem would be resolved. Instead, it has worsened.

The Taliban’s rise has reflected the larger failure of Afghanistan that has several architects. Pakistan’s own contribution to the failure may be arguable but not so its Afghanistan policy. The policy had been a failure since the 1990s when the Afghans’ bitter wrangling about the implementation of the Peshawar and Makkah accords, negotiated through Pakistan’s painstaking diplomatic efforts, set the stage for unending conflict in the country.

Pakistan has not been a party to the conflict but has been part of it contributing to the Taliban’s success of which we now face the conseque­nces. The truth is there would have been no TTP had there been no Afghan Taliban. They are but two sides of the same coin.

Afghanistan presented challenges affecting Pakistan’s security and economic future, as well as regional stability. But Islamabad saw it as only a security challenge.

We failed to see that the Taliban’s rise, fall and resurgence was, in fact, the culmination of the long process that began with the overthrow of Afghanistan’s monarchy in 1973. And that the struggles for power triggered by the event had merged and collided with the Soviet invasion in 1979, America’s two Afghanistan wars, and the war against terrorism, impacting the social and political dynamics in Afgha­nis­tan and Pakistan, especially among the Pakhtun population along the border.

It enabled jihadist/sectarian currents present in Pakistan to mingle with other extremist and militant organisations in the region, and transnational networks like Al Qaeda. Afghanistan became a hinterland for some, home to others, and the flagship for all when the Taliban ruled the country. When they lost power, the Taliban’s fight became their fight too.


The Afghans have been badly served by their rulers.


The Taliban have returned to power but lack legitimacy and military control. It can be argued they won through a political deal rather than on the battlefield, and face possible resistance by Afghans and threats from new stakeholders such as the IS-K. It is doubtful if they can ever stabilise Afghanistan. And this would have consequences for Pakistan.

Pakistan failed in its Afghanistan policy, but so did the Americans and Afghans. In a nutshell, the causes of American failure were: lack of knowledge of Afghanistan’s history and culture, poor war aims, the Iraq war distraction, frequent changes of strategy and commanding generals, inept Afghan partners, the dual authority of Kabul government and the US whose interests did not always match, and, last but not least, electoral politics in Washington. Finally, America lost the appetite for failure and simply walked out.

Arguably the biggest failure was of the ruling establishment in Kabul. The Afghans are a great people and nation. They should not be ruled by the Taliban. But they have been badly served by their ruling elite who must share the bulk of the responsibility for what has happened to their hapless country.

Afghanistan has ethnic, linguistic, sectarian and tribal fault lines. Historically, its horizontal power structure has been contested by a Pakhtun-dominated elite run by Kabul and regional strongmen, providing for continued power struggles and conflicts within conflicts.

Its competitive and conflict-prone geopolitical environment has offered opportunities to its neighbours to intervene to their advantage. Neither America’s war nor the Taliban were the answer to Afg­h­a­nistan’s foundat­i­onal challenges.

Kabul should have reached out to Pakistan to jointly find a solution to the Taliban problem, which could have happened only in the complicated context of Pak-Afghan relations. Instead, it tried to use America and India to coerce Pakistan to solve the Taliban problem for them. That was never going to work.

Where do we go from here? Afghanistan is a political challenge with a military dimension — and not a military challenge with a political dimension.

The Afghan policy should be developed in a Foreign Office-led but security establishment-supported process. The pursuit of a declaratory policy by one institution and operational policy by another, with one not knowing what the other was doing, was a prescription for failure. It created credibility problems, affecting foreign policy across the board.

We have to now make the best of a bad situation and help Afghanistan by facilitating its international engagement aimed at neither strengthening nor weakening the Taliban, nor a regime change, all of which are bad options.

The writer, a former ambassador, is adjunct professor Georgetown University and Visiting Senior Research Fellow National University of Singapore.

Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2023
‘Frustrated’ Khamenei pushed for Saudi-Iran deal brokered by China

Published March 17, 2023 

DUBAI: Eager to end its political and economic isolation, Iran had been trying for two years to restore ties with Saudi Arabia, an Arab heavyweight and oil powerhouse.

Last September, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei lost patience with the slow pace of bilateral talks and summoned his team to discuss ways to accelerate the process, which led to China’s involvement, according to two Iranian officials.

Beijing’s secret role in the breakthrough announced last week shook up dynamics in the Middle East, where the US was for decades the main mediator, flexing its security and diplomatic muscles.

“The Chinese showed willingness to help both Tehran and Riyadh to narrow the gaps and overcome unresolved issues during the talks in Oman and Iraq,” said an Iranian diplomat involved in the talks.

The deal was struck after a seven-year diplomatic rupture. For Saudi Arabia, a deal could mean improved security. In 2019, Riyadh blamed Tehran for attacks on its oil installations that knocked out half of its supply.

Iran denied involvement. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan has said that Saudi investments into Iran could now happen quickly.

Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was stormed during a dispute between the two countries over Riyadh’s execution of a prominent Shia leader.

Hostility between the two powers had endangered stability in the Middle East and fuelled regional conflicts in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

Asked whether the Saudi-Iran deal might fray, Wang Di, a Chinese diplomat involved in the talks in Beijing, told reporters the rapprochement was a process without expectations that all issues would be solved overnight.

“The important thing is for both sides to have the sincerity to improve ties,” he said, according to Xinhua news agency reporter Yang Liu on Twitter.

Xi meets Crown Prince

Saudi Arabia, Washington’s most important Arab ally, began exploring ways to open a dialogue with Iran two years ago in Iraq and Oman, said a Saudi official.

This led to a critical moment in December, when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Riyadh. In a bilateral meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the president expressed his desire to broker dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

“The crown prince welcomed this and promised to send, for us to send to the Chinese side, a summary of the previous rounds of dialogue, a plan on what we think on how we can resume these talks,” said the Saudi official.

In February, Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi visited Beijing and the Chinese forwarded Riyadh’s proposals that were accepted by the Iranian side, the official added.

An Iranian official said the deal covered a range of issues, from security concerns to economic and political issues.

“I will not go into details, but we have agreed that neither country will be a source of instability for the other one. Iran will use its influence in the region, particularly in Yemen, to help Riyadh’s security,” the official said.

“Both sides will do their best to preserve security in the Gulf, guarantee the oil flow, work together to resolve regional issues, while Tehran and Riyadh will not get involved in military aggression against each other.”

A Saudi-led coalition has been battling the Houthi movement in Yemen for eight years.

Exactly how much support Iran has given the Houthis, who share a Shia ideology, has never been clear. Gulf countries accuse Iran of interference via “Shia proxies” in the region, something Tehran denies.

“Iran is the main supplier of weapons, training, ideological programmes, propaganda and expertise to the Houthis and we are the main victim. Iran can do a lot and it should do a lot,” said the Saudi official.

Iran chose its senior national security official Ali Shamkhani to lead the negotiations because he is an ethnic Arab, said a regional source who belongs to Khamenei’s inner circle.

“The Chinese showed willingness to help both Tehran and Riyadh to narrow the gaps and overcome unresolved issues during the talks in Oman and Iraq,” said the Iranian diplomat.

“China was the best option considering Iran’s lack of trust towards Washington and Beijing’s friendly ties with Saudi Arabia and Iran. China also will benefit from a calm Middle East considering its energy needs,” said an Iranian official, briefed about the meetings.

After decades of mistrust, ongoing frictions should not come as a surprise. “This agreement does not mean that there will be no issues or conflicts between Tehran and Riyadh. It means that whatever happens in the future it will be in a ‘controlled’ way,” said an Iranian insider, close to Iran’s decision-making elite.

Published in Dawn, March 17th, 2023

Shifting Middle Eastern sands

Zahid Hussain
Published March 15, 2023 


THE unexpected thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a major diplomatic triumph for China. In a rapprochement mediated by Beijing, the two archrivals, which had been engaged in a bitter proxy war in the Middle East for the past several years, have agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations and ease tensions.

The agreement demonstrates the growing assertion of China’s clout in one of the world’s most volatile regions. It also highlights the changing global order, with China playing a bigger role on the world stage.

The détente comes at a time of increasing rivalry between the two superpowers America and China, which threatens to push the world towards a new Cold War. Many analysts describe the agreement signed by the two sides in Beijing last week as an indication of waning US influence in the region. The deal may not bring an end to the deep-rooted rivalry between the two regional powers but it can certainly end discord and open the way for a peaceful resolution of conflicts in the region.

The two countries have agreed to re-establish diplomatic ties and reopen their respective missions within two months. The agreement also affirmed “the respect for the sovereignty of states and the non-interference in internal affairs of states”. Significantly, the trilateral statement released in Beijing last week has also mentioned the 2001 security agreement and the broader 1998 cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Tehran and Riyadh have been locked in a fierce battle for supremacy in the Middle East region for decades. The two have been fighting proxy wars in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. But the intensification of the civil war in Yemen turned into a flashpoint over the last few years, threatening a wider regional conflagration.

The Saudi-Iran détente comes at a time of increasing rivalry between America and China.

While Saudi Arabia has supported Yemen’s government forces, the Houthi rebels have been backed by Iran. The Yemeni civil war spilled over into Saudi Arabia, with rebel forces targeting oil facilities inside the kingdom. The two countries severed diplomatic ties in 2016 after Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shia cleric, leading a mob in Iran to ransack the Saudi embassy there in protest. That also ended cooperation between the two countries in various fields.

Iran’s nuclear programme has also been a major Saudi security concern, intensifying the rivalry between the two Gulf countries. Their anti-Iran positions had also brought Saudi Arabia and Israel closer. Not surprisingly, both welcomed the decision of the Trump administration to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal.

Over the past few years, Riyadh has been sending out signals that it was ready for greater cooperation with Israel. The kingdom tacitly supported the recognition of Israel by the UAE and some other Gulf countries. But the fear of a backlash from extremist elements stopped Riyadh from openly establishing official relations with Tel Aviv.

Saudi Arabia has long been America’s staunchest Middle East ally. Though the kingdom has remained dependent on Washington for its security, ties between the two cooled under the Biden administration. The frosty reception given to President Joe Biden during his visit to Riyadh last year was a clear message from the de facto Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that it would not be business as usual.

This was in part a reaction to strong criticism by President Biden regarding the alleged role of the crown prince in the murder of Saudi journalist and US resident Jamal Khashoggi. In contrast, President Xi Jinping of China was accorded a red carpet welcome when he visited Riyadh last December. The growing Beijing-Riyadh ties are also dictated by bilateral economic interests. China is Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, with the kingdom being a major supplier of oil to the former.

Riyadh’s move towards reconciliation with Iran is also driven by the crown prince’s Vision 2030 that envisages the diversification of the kingdom’s oil-dependent economy by attracting foreign investments. It also calls for cultural openness of the conservative society.

Meanwhile, there has been a strengthening of bilateral relations between Beijing and Tehran in the past years, with the tightening of US sanctions against the Islamic Republic. China considers Iran strategically important in the changing politics of the region. In 2021, China signed an agreement for an investment of more than $40 billion in infrastructure development in exchange for oil. The Iranian president was given a rousing reception when he visited Beijing earlier this year.

These developments gave China huge diplomatic clout and it played a mediating role between the two bitter rivals. Last week’s agreement was reached after days of secret parleys between Saudi and Iranian officials, facilitated by Beijing. The landmark deal reflects the shifting sands of regional geopolitics. It is also a personal triumph for Chinese President Xi.

The dramatic diplomatic breakthrough came as he was elected for his third term. Being president, party leader and chairman of the Chinese military makes President Xi the most powerful leader in China’s recent history. It gives him absolute power to determine the future course of the country. Under him, there has been significant projection of Chinese power. Internationally, China is now playing a more proactive role. Washington’s move to contain China has further hardened Beijing’s stance. Relations between the US and China have worsened in recent times.

China is now not only challenging US economic leadership far more intensely than before but is also asserting itself more forcefully on the global stage. Its growing economic and political power is seen as a threat to American domination.

President Xi’s ambition of propelling China to centre stage of the global power game represents a sharp departure from the approach of previous Chinese leaders who strictly adhered to the policy of not taking the lead in global conflicts. Focusing its energies on development helped the country become an economic superpower. But now, China is also taking a lead in global affairs. The latest deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran indicates China’s growing assertiveness on the global stage. Beijing’s increasingly proactive role is likely to alter the existing world order.

The writer is an author and journalist.
zhussain100@yahoo.com
Twitter:@hidhussain


Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2023