Famine looms in Somalia amid drought, dwindling aid and Middle East war
Six million people in Somalia are facing crisis levels of food insecurity from a lack of rain and spiking food and water prices due to the Middle East war, United Nations-backed experts and humanitarian groups have warned.
Issued on: 15/05/2026 - RFI
Cost of living
A host of factors were driving the deterioration, the report found.
It cited the decline in value of the Somali shilling, due to its rejection by traders and service providers in the south, as well as displacement of people due to conflict and insecurity, and flood risks in river areas.
Humanitarian group Mercy Corps also warned on Thursday that the ongoing war in the Middle East is having a drastic effect on Somalia, with the cost of fuel, food, water and fertiliser rising.
Daud Jiran, country director for Somalia at Mercy Corps says that in some of the areas hardest hit by drought, a single jerrycan of water now costs up to $1.50, compared with just a few cents a year ago.
"For mothers already struggling to put even one meal on the table, basic necessities like water are becoming unaffordable."
'Preventable catastrophe'
Jiran insists that funding and early action could prevent the worst case scenario, as in 2022 when the country was pulled back from the brink of famine.
"Somalia is once again facing a preventable catastrophe," he said. "Only urgent action can stop this crisis from deepening."
However, the IPC report says humanitarian assistance is reaching just 12 percent of the 6 million people in crisis.
The UN's World Food Programme warned last week it would have to halt humanitarian assistance in Somalia by July if it did not receive new funding.
The UN has steadily reduced its Somalia aid programme from $2.6 billion (€2.2 billion) in 2023 to $852 million (€740 million) this year, since the United States slashed its contributions. So far, only 13 percent of this year's target has been raised.
"It's a toxic cocktail of factors... things are really, really desperate," Tom Fletcher, head of the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told French news agency AFP last month.
"Often we're having to choose which lives to save and which lives not to save."
Since its state collapsed in the early 1990s, Somalia has endured near-constant civil war, Islamist insurgencies, floods, droughts and episodes of famine.
The country also ranks among the world's most vulnerable to climate change, which scientists say is leading to more frequent and more intense incidences of extreme weather, such as droughts and floods.
(with newswires)
Six million people in Somalia are facing crisis levels of food insecurity from a lack of rain and spiking food and water prices due to the Middle East war, United Nations-backed experts and humanitarian groups have warned.
Issued on: 15/05/2026 - RFI
Malnourished children seen at Banadir Hospital in Mogadishu, Somalia, 14 May 2025.
AP - Farah Abdi Warsameh
Almost a third of the population is affected by food insecurity, according to data published Thursday from the UN-backed group monitoring hunger and malnutrition, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Initiative (IPC).
Some 4.1 million people in Somalia are currently classified as being in the "crisis" phase of food insecurity and nearly 1.9 million people in the "emergency" phase – one step away from the "catastrophic" level, equal to famine.
The analysis found that Somalia's Burhakaba District, in the country's south, was at risk of famine in a "plausible worst-case scenario of failing Gu rains, soaring food prices and below expected delivery of humanitarian food security assistance".
The Gu rainy season from April to June is Somalia's most important period for crops and livestock.
Nearly 1.88 million children are now expected to need treatment for acute malnutrition this year, the IPC found.
Almost a third of the population is affected by food insecurity, according to data published Thursday from the UN-backed group monitoring hunger and malnutrition, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Initiative (IPC).
Some 4.1 million people in Somalia are currently classified as being in the "crisis" phase of food insecurity and nearly 1.9 million people in the "emergency" phase – one step away from the "catastrophic" level, equal to famine.
The analysis found that Somalia's Burhakaba District, in the country's south, was at risk of famine in a "plausible worst-case scenario of failing Gu rains, soaring food prices and below expected delivery of humanitarian food security assistance".
The Gu rainy season from April to June is Somalia's most important period for crops and livestock.
Nearly 1.88 million children are now expected to need treatment for acute malnutrition this year, the IPC found.
Cost of living
A host of factors were driving the deterioration, the report found.
It cited the decline in value of the Somali shilling, due to its rejection by traders and service providers in the south, as well as displacement of people due to conflict and insecurity, and flood risks in river areas.
Humanitarian group Mercy Corps also warned on Thursday that the ongoing war in the Middle East is having a drastic effect on Somalia, with the cost of fuel, food, water and fertiliser rising.
Daud Jiran, country director for Somalia at Mercy Corps says that in some of the areas hardest hit by drought, a single jerrycan of water now costs up to $1.50, compared with just a few cents a year ago.
"For mothers already struggling to put even one meal on the table, basic necessities like water are becoming unaffordable."
'Preventable catastrophe'
Jiran insists that funding and early action could prevent the worst case scenario, as in 2022 when the country was pulled back from the brink of famine.
"Somalia is once again facing a preventable catastrophe," he said. "Only urgent action can stop this crisis from deepening."
However, the IPC report says humanitarian assistance is reaching just 12 percent of the 6 million people in crisis.
The UN's World Food Programme warned last week it would have to halt humanitarian assistance in Somalia by July if it did not receive new funding.
The UN has steadily reduced its Somalia aid programme from $2.6 billion (€2.2 billion) in 2023 to $852 million (€740 million) this year, since the United States slashed its contributions. So far, only 13 percent of this year's target has been raised.
"It's a toxic cocktail of factors... things are really, really desperate," Tom Fletcher, head of the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, told French news agency AFP last month.
"Often we're having to choose which lives to save and which lives not to save."
Since its state collapsed in the early 1990s, Somalia has endured near-constant civil war, Islamist insurgencies, floods, droughts and episodes of famine.
The country also ranks among the world's most vulnerable to climate change, which scientists say is leading to more frequent and more intense incidences of extreme weather, such as droughts and floods.
(with newswires)
Issued on: 16/05/2026 - RFI
Turkey’s role in Somalia is under growing scrutiny, with the East African country embroiled in controversy over elections and Israel stepping up efforts to challenge Turkey in the region.
The flags of Israel and Somaliland, seen between the capital city of Hargeisa and the port city of Berbera, Somaliland, 19 February, 2026. AFP - TONY KARUMBA
Over the last two years Turkey has ramped up its economic and military presence in Somalia, building on decades of development. The East African country is home to Turkey’s largest overseas military base and this year it bolstered its military presence, deploying F16 fighter jets and tanks.
Turkey is also constructing a space port for its rapidly advancing missile programme, and the two countries have signed agreements to exploit potentially vast energy reserves.
But the deepening partnership is proving increasingly controversial, says Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group.
While five or 10 years ago there would have been "quite high praise" for Turkey's role, that's changed over the last two years. "Some of these [Turkish] contracts and projects have tipped into [a much] greater scale and that has raised questions" he noted.
Over the last two years Turkey has ramped up its economic and military presence in Somalia, building on decades of development. The East African country is home to Turkey’s largest overseas military base and this year it bolstered its military presence, deploying F16 fighter jets and tanks.
Turkey is also constructing a space port for its rapidly advancing missile programme, and the two countries have signed agreements to exploit potentially vast energy reserves.
But the deepening partnership is proving increasingly controversial, says Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group.
While five or 10 years ago there would have been "quite high praise" for Turkey's role, that's changed over the last two years. "Some of these [Turkish] contracts and projects have tipped into [a much] greater scale and that has raised questions" he noted.
Election dispute
A looming constitutional crisis is adding to the scrutiny of Turkey’s role in Somalia. The Somali government is insisting it has one year left of its electoral mandate, while the opposition claims elections should be held in May.
"The core issue is that the political elite are infighting about the system,” explains Mahmood. “So anytime that happens, those who are against the government wind up complaining and then also looking at who is supporting the Somali government."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authorisation of $30 million in cash aid to the Somali government, which coincided with an April visit to Istanbul by his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, drew criticism from both the Somali and Turkish opposition.
“Turkey providing cash aid to the Somali government sparked the debate,” said African studies professor Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioglu, of the Social Sciences University of Ankara.
“It seems some people think Turkey supports the ruling government, and provides support to the ruling government because they benefit from the relationship.”
Ankara has strongly refuted accusations of interference in Somali politics. However, it could be paying the price for being too focused on Mogadishu in the past, given the diverse nature of Somalia's regions.
“Turkey has started to learn from its mistakes,” said Tepeciklioglu. “They have started to increase their involvement with different states, with different regions, and have started to increase their engagement with local people as well.”
Rivalry in the region
Turkey is also facing a growing challenge in the region from Israel, which in April appointed an ambassador to Somaliland – becoming the first country to recognise the breakaway republic, which seceded from Somalia in 1991.
“It’s been useful probably for [Israel] to assert themselves against Turkey in an area where Turkey has firmly planted its flag,” said Norman Ricklefs of geopolitical consultancy, the NAMEA Group.
Israeli-Turkish relations remain strained over Ankara’s support of Hamas and Israel’s war against Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli government has indicated it is considering a military presence in Somaliland, to counter the threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen.
“I don't think we're at that stage yet,” said Ricklefs. "But any Israeli military presence in Somaliland is going to raise angst amongst the neighbours – Somalia, Egypt, Turkey and potentially Saudi Arabia. Obviously, it's going to be destabilising.”
The risky calculations behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland
The Horn of Africa could be a potential new flashpoint if Israel deploys military assets in Somaliland, agrees international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
"The potential for conflict between Israel and Turkey is really high, because they're pursuing diametrically opposed objectives. If relations further deteriorate, then we may see tensions running high between the two countries because they would be in almost physical contact. Their military assets may run the risk of having dangerous encounters with each other."
Israeli-Turkish rivalry in the region threatens to exacerbate existing tensions in an already volatile area. For Turkey, which has invested more than €1 billion in development in Somalia over the past decade, and is also eyeing major financial returns from its energy exploration in Somalian waters, the stakes are high.
By:Dorian Jones
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